|
BUSINESS
& POLITICS IN THE WORLD GLOBAL
OPINION REPORT NO. 861-864 Week: August 19 – September
15, 2024 Presentation: September 20,
2024
861-864-43-32/Commentary:
Why Many Parents And Teens Think It’s Harder Being A Teen Today Literacy
Rate – 7th Pakistan Population And Housing Census Almost
Half Of Pakistanis (48%) Think That Marrying Someone Richer Or Poorer Than
Them Would Be Easy What
Migration Reveals About Religion In India Lebanon
Migration Insights: 2024 Public Opinion Factsheet Zambians
Demand Presidential Accountability Namibians
Grow More Dissatisfied With Government’s Efforts On Electricity Provision Seychellois
Rate Government Efforts To Protect The Environment Highly, But Want It To Do
More Ugandan
Women Still Face Barriers To Equality In Education, Employment, And Politics 28%
Of Parents Say They Are Finding It Difficult To Afford Uniforms And Back To
School Supplies How
Do Britons Feel About The Royals After Two Years Of King Charles The
Honeymoon Is Over: Keir Starmer's Net Favourability Falls To Lowest Level
Since February Most
NHS Staff Say Staff Shortages And Burnout Are Impacting Patient Care 85%
Say Britain Is Divided As Concern About Extremism Rises 45%
Agree That Brits Talk About The Weather Too Much Spaniards
Withdraw Their Support For The Presence Of Technology In Classrooms Why
Many Parents And Teens Think It’s Harder Being A Teen Today From
‘Traditional’ To ‘Open-Minded,’ How Americans Describe Themselves The
Link Between Local News Coverage And Americans’ Perceptions Of Crime How
U.S. Public Opinion Has Changed In 20 Years Of Our Surveys Why
Americans Are Pleasantly Surprised In Retirement Democrats
Drive Surge In Election Enthusiasm Oh,
The Humanities: Can You Guess The Most-Regretted College Majors The
Share Of Mortgage Holders ‘At Risk’ Of ‘Mortgage Stress’ Fell In July After
The Stage 3 Tax Cuts How
People In South Asia View Other South Asian Countries, Survey In 3 Countries Most
People In 35 Countries See The UN Favorably, But Views Have Dipped In Some
Places INTRODUCTORY NOTE 861-864-43-32/Commentary: Why Many Parents
And Teens Think It’s Harder Being A Teen Today
Is it harder these days to
be a teen? Or do today’s teenagers have it easier than those of past
generations? Parents and teens most
often say it’s harder to
be a teen today. Though parents are far more likely to say this. Far fewer say it’s easier
now … … or that it’s about the
same. Teens, though, are more
likely than parents to say they are unsure. But why? We asked those
who say teen life has gotten harder or easier to explain in their own words
why they think so. Why parents
say it’s harder being a teen today
There are big debates
about how teenagers are faring these days. And technology’s impact is often
at the center of these conversations. Prominent figures,
including the U.S. Surgeon General, have been vocal about the harmful effects technology may be having on young
people. These concerns ring true
for the parents in our survey. A majority blame technology – and especially
social media – for making teen life more difficult. Among parents who say it’s
harder being a teen today, about two-thirds cite technology in some way. This
includes 41% who specifically name social media. While some mention social
media in broad terms, others bring up specific experiences that teens may
have on these platforms, such as feeling pressure to act or look a certain
way or having negative interactions there. Parents also call out the
downsides of being constantly connected through social media. How
we did this “Social media is a scourge
for society, especially for teens. They can’t escape social pressures and are
constantly bombarded by images and content that makes them feel insecure and
less than perfect, which creates undue stress that they can’t escape.” “Kids are being told what
to think and how to feel based on social media.” Parents name other forms
of technology, but at much lower rates. Roughly one-in-ten parents who think
being a teen is harder today specifically say the internet (11%) or
smartphones (7%) contribute to this. “Teens are online and they
are going to encounter everything offered – positive and negative.
Unfortunately, the negative can do major damage, as in cyberbullying, for
example.” Another 26% say technology
in general or some other specific type of technology (e.g., video games or
television) makes teens’ lives harder today. “Technology has changed
the way people communicate. I can see how kids feel very isolated.” Parents also raise a range
of reasons that do not specifically reference technology, with two that stand
out: more pressures placed on teens and the country or world being worse off
than in the past. Among parents who think it’s harder to be a teen today, 16%
say it’s because of the pressures and expectations young people face. These
include teens feeling like they have to look or act a certain way or perform
at a certain level. “The competition is more
fierce in sports and academics and the bar seems to be higher. Everything is
more over-the-top for social activities too. It’s not simple as it was.” A similar share (15%) says
teen life is harder because the country or world has changed in a bad way,
whether due to political issues or to shifts in morals and values. “Now it is more difficult
to instill values, principles, good customs and good behavior, since many bad
vices are seen in some schools and public places.” Other reasons that do not
mention technology are less common. For example, roughly one-in-ten of these
parents or fewer mention violence and drugs, bullying, and exposure to bad
influences. Why parents
say it’s easier being a teen today
Teens today have a
seemingly endless choice of technologies at their disposal, whether it
be smartphones, video games or generative AI. And while relatively few parents say
teen’s lives are easier today, those who do largely point to technology. Among parents who say it
is easier being a teen today, roughly six-in-ten mention technology as a
reason. Some reference a specific
type of technology, like the internet (14%). Another 8% cite smartphones, and
3% cite social media. “Although the internet can
be toxic, it also opens up so many avenues for connection, learning and
engagement.” “We didn’t have
smartphones when I was a teenager. Nowadays, teenagers have all the answers
in the palm of their hand.” A fair portion (47%)
mention technology broadly or name another specific type of technology. “Technology has improved
exponentially, giving access to the whole world at your fingertips.” Some other reasons that
emerge do not mention technology specifically. For instance, 18% of parents
who say it’s easier being a teen today think this is because there are fewer
pressures and expectations on teenagers than in the past. “Teens today have been
shown more leniency; they barely hold themselves responsible.” And one-in-ten say it’s
easier because teens have access to more resources and information. “When I was a teen,
I had to carry so many books and binders everywhere while my daughter can
just have her school laptop. She can complete research easily with internet
access on her school device.” Why teens
say it’s harder being a teen today
Most teens use social media, and some do so almost constantly. But
they also see these sites as a reason teens’ lives are harder today than 20
years ago. In addition, teens point
to the pressures and expectations that are placed on them. Among teens who say it’s
harder to be a teenager today than in the past, roughly four-in-ten mention
technology as a reason. This includes a quarter who specifically name social
media. Some mention these sites broadly; others link them to harmful experiences
like increased pressures to look a certain way or negative interactions with
others. “Social media tells kids
what to do and say. And if you aren’t up on it, you look like the fool and
become like an outcast from lots of people.” “Social media was not a part
of my parents’ teenage lives and I feel that they did not have to ‘curate’
themselves and be a certain way in order to fit [in] as it is today.” Few specifically mention
the internet (6%) or smartphones (3%) as reasons. About one-in-ten (11%) cite
technology broadly or another type of technology. “For one thing, my phone
is a huge distraction. It takes up so much of my time just looking at stuff
that doesn’t even mean anything to me.” Teens name several reasons
that do not specifically mention technology – most prominently, the increased
pressures and expectations placed on them. Roughly three-in-ten of those who
say teen life is harder today (31%) say it’s because of these pressures and
expectations. “We have so much more
homework and pressure from other kids. We are always being looked at by
everyone. We can’t escape.” “Adults expect too much
from us. We need to get good grades, do extracurricular activities, have a
social life, and work part time – all at the same time.” Another 15% say it’s
harder because the world is worse off today, due to such things as political
issues, values being different or the country having declined in some way. “Teenagers are less able
to afford vehicles, rent, etc. and basic living necessities, and are
therefore not able to move out for years after they graduate high school and
even college.” Other reasons that don’t
mention technology – including violence and drugs, bullying, and mental
health problems – are named by 8% of these teens or fewer. Why teens
say it’s easier being a teen today
Teens also see ways that
technology makes life better, whether that’s helping them pursue hobbies, express their creativity or build skills. Overall, few think teens’ lives are
easier today than 20 years ago, but those who do largely say technology is a
reason. Six-in-ten teens who say
teen life is easier today reference technology in some way. This includes 14%
who mention the internet and 12% who mention phones. Just 3% name social
media. “[Teens 20 years ago]
didn’t have internet available anywhere and they also didn’t have smartphones
to be able to use whenever needed.” This also includes 46% who
reference technology in general or some other specific type of technology. “Tech has made it easier
to connect with friends.” These teens also name
reasons that don’t specifically mention technology, including 14% who say
life is easier because there are fewer pressures and expectations for people
their age. “Twenty years ago there
was probably more pressure to become an adult sooner and get things like a
job, a learner’s permit, etc.” And a same share says
having more resources available to them has made life easier. “Nowadays, we have help to
deal with your physical and mental well-being, and we have
specialists/therapists that we can talk to about our feelings and emotions.” Smaller shares say it’s
due to the country and world being better off today (4%) or people being
nicer to each other (3%). How
parents and teens compare
Parents and teens are
mostly in agreement on what makes growing up today harder than in the past. But the rate at which they
cite certain factors like social media or facing pressures differ. Among those who say being
a teen today is harder,
65% of parents believe it’s because of technology in some way. This drops to
39% among teens. This divide also stands
out when it comes to social media specifically (41% vs. 25%). Teens, on the other hand,
are more likely than parents to describe issues related to overachieving or
having to look a certain way. Among those who say teen life is harder today,
31% of teens cite pressures and expectations as a reason, compared with 16%
of parents. Still, there are areas in
which parents and teens are in sync. For example, similar shares cite the
country or world being worse today (15% each) and violence and drugs (8%
each) as reasons life today for teens is harder. And among those who say
being a teen today is easier,
roughly six-in-ten parents (59%) and teens (60%) mention technology in some
way. (PEW) 27 August, 2024 SUMMARY OF POLLS ASIA (Pakistan) Literacy Rate – 7th Pakistan
Population And Housing Census Overall literacy rate
improved by 1.8%, from 58.9% in 2017 to 60.7% in 2023. From 2017 to 2023, the
total literacy rate in Punjab, Sindh and ICT increased by 2.3%, 2.9% and 2.5%
respectively, while it fell for KP by 2.9% and for Balochistan by 1.6%. Between
2017 to 2023, urban areas showed a modest increase of 0.9%, while rural areas
saw a more substantial rise of 1.5% in their literacy rates. Within age
groups, the highest literacy rate recorded was among the 13-14 year olds
living in urban areas (88.8%). (Gallup Pakistan) 05 September, 2024 Almost Half Of Pakistanis (48%)
Think That Marrying Someone Richer Or Poorer Than Them Would Be Easy According to a survey
conducted by Gallup & Gilani Pakistan, almost half of Pakistanis (48%)
think that marrying someone richer or poorer than them would be easy. Survey
findings revealed men were 10% more likely than women to hold this view.
Urban respondents were 9% more likely to hold a similar belief, relative to
their rural counterparts. More than half (54%) of the adults aged under 30
were the most likely to think that such a marriage would be easy in their
community. (Gallup Pakistan) 06 September, 2024 (India) What Migration Reveals About
Religion In India About 80% of people in
India are Hindu, but they form only 41% of emigrants from the country, the
survey on the religious
composition of the world's migrants says. In contrast, about 15% of people
living in India are Muslim, compared with 33% of those who were born in India
and now live elsewhere. Christians make up only about 2% of the Indian
population, but 16% who have left India are Christian. (BBC) 20 August, 2024 MENA (Lebenon) Lebanon Migration Insights:
2024 Public Opinion Factsheet 38% of Lebanese citizens
express a desire to leave their country. This figure remains identical to
levels seen in 2022 and 2012, though it is 12 percentage points higher than
the 26% recorded in 2018. Youth and college-educated Lebanese are more
inclined to emigrate. More than half (58%) of those ages 18-29 express their
desire to leave Lebanon, which is double the 29% of those aged 30 or older
who share the same desire. (Arabbarometer) 20 August, 2024 AFRICA (Zambia) Zambians
Demand Presidential Accountability By overwhelming
majorities, Zambians say they prefer democracy to any other form of
government (87%) and see their country as “a full democracy” or “a democracy
with minor problems” (80%). Half (50%) of Zambians believe that the country
has become “more democratic” over the past five years, and nearly six in 10
(57%) think it will be more democratic than it is today in five years’ time. (Afrobarometer) 04 September, 2024 (Namibia) Namibians
Grow More Dissatisfied With Government’s Efforts On Electricity Provision Six in 10 Namibians (60%)
live in zones served by the national electricity grid. o But only 40% of
rural residents are within reach of the grid, compared to nearly twice as
many urban residents (78%). Fewer than half (48%) of Namibians live in
households that are connected to the national power grid. About a quarter
(24%) of Namibians say they use sources of electricity other than the
national grid. (Afrobarometer) 06 September, 2024 (Seychellois) Seychellois
Rate Government Efforts To Protect The Environment Highly, But Want It To Do
More A majority (57%) of
Seychellois say pollution is a “somewhat serious” or “very serious” problem
in their community. Trash disposal ranks as the most important environmental
issue that citizens identify in their community. Two-thirds (66%) say plastic
bags are a major source of pollution in Seychelles. Four in 10 Seychellois
(41%) believe ordinary citizens have the primary responsibility for reducing
pollution and keeping their communities clean. Others assign this task primarily
to business and industry (21%), the national government (12%), or local
government (11%). (Afrobarometer) 06 September, 2024 (Uganda) Ugandan Women Still Face
Barriers To Equality In Education, Employment, And Politics In Uganda, women are less
likely than men to have progressed to secondary school (39% vs. 49%). o Most
Ugandans (83%) say it is rare or unheard of for families to prioritise boys’
education over girls’, but 16% say this happens frequently. o More than one-third
(35%) of citizens say schoolgirls “often” or “always” face discrimination,
harassment, and requests for sexual favours from their teachers. (Afrobarometer) 10 September, 2024 WEST EUROPE (UK) 28% Of Parents Say They Are
Finding It Difficult To Afford Uniforms And Back To School Supplies A new YouGov survey of
parents whose children be attending school in the coming academic year finds
that 28% say they are finding it difficult to afford their school uniforms
and other back to school supplies. The results also show that that 11% of
parents with children in school say that they typically find it difficult to
afford to feed their children during term time – a figure which rises to 19%
during school holidays. (YouGov UK) 29 August, 2024 How Do Britons Feel About The
Royals After Two Years Of King Charles Six in ten Britons (63%)
have a favourable opinion of Charles III, against only three in ten (29%) who
hold a negative view of the reigning monarch. This gives the King an overall
net favourability rating of +34, something many politicians would be deeply
envious of. More popular, though, are heir apparent Prince William and his
wife Catherine, Princess of Wales. They are Britain’s favourite royals, with
three-quarters of Britons (74-75%) having a favourable view of the couple,
and disliking the two a minority view (13-16%). (YouGov UK) 30 August, 2024 The Conservatives And Reform UK
Are Most Likely To Be Seen As Similar, But Fewer Than Half Think Any Two Of
The Main Parties Are Alike The Conservatives and Reform UK are the
most comparable in the public mind, with 45% of Britons feeling they are
similar, including one in eight (12%) believing they are 'very' similar.
Nonetheless, this is a roughly even divide as four in ten (39%) feel that the
two right-wing parties are substantively different from each other. Despite
it being a common political cliché, only a quarter of Britons (25%) feel that
the Conservatives and Labour are similar to one another, with nearly
two-thirds (64%) viewing the two as distinguishable. (YouGov UK) 02 September, 2024 The Honeymoon Is Over: Keir
Starmer's Net Favourability Falls To Lowest Level Since February Just a third of Britons
(35%) now have a favourable view of the Labour leader, the fewest since June
and down from 44% after the election. This is against 56% of the public holding
now an unfavourable view of Starmer, his joint worst figure recorded with
YouGov this year. One in five Britons hold good opinions of chancellor of the
exchequer Rachel Reeves (21%) and home secretary Yvette Cooper (20%), with
one in seven feeling similarly towards foreign secretary David Lammy. (YouGov UK) 03 September, 2024 Most NHS Staff Say Staff
Shortages And Burnout Are Impacting Patient Care A clear majority of
healthcare workers in patient-facing roles (69%) say that quality of care is
often negatively impacted by shortages. Just 27% say shortages do not
frequently impact patient care. While not all workers reported taking on
extra duties, 92% acknowledged that there are at least some shortages in
their workplace. Reports of shortages and extra duties as a result were
roughly the same for both those in patient-facing roles and those not. (YouGov UK) 06 September, 2024 85% Say Britain Is Divided As
Concern About Extremism Rises Overall, 85% think that
British society is divided these days. This figure has stood at around
8 in 10 since 2021, though these latest results show a 4 point rise since
March. There has been a steeper increase in concerns about extremism
(even though, overall more people remain concerned about the state of
Britain’s public services and economy). 84% say they are concerned about the
state of Britain’s public services, and 83% about Britain’s economy, no
change since March. (Ipsos MORI) 22 August, 2024 45% Agree That Brits Talk About
The Weather Too Much While just one in five
(22%) say that they personally talk about the weather too much, 45% agree
that people in Britain generally talk about the weather too much. 6 in 10
(61%) say that they follow stories about the weather closely. This rises to
64% of those aged 55-75. A quarter (26%) say they would never consider
sunbathing, no matter the temperature. The same proportion (25%) would never
consider swimming outside. (Ipsos MORI) 02 September, 2024 (Spain) Spaniards Withdraw Their
Support For The Presence Of Technology In Classrooms In Spain where 1 in 2
Spaniards agree with that opinion, with only 24% believing that it is better
now . However, and beyond the educational field, 42% share the idea that
growing up in Spain now is more difficult than when they were young, with a
smaller percentage (31%) thinking that it is easier. Parents with children
are more likely to have a positive opinion of the education system, a trend
that is also confirmed in Spain, where 36% of people with children say that
the quality of the education system in Spain is good, compared to 26% who
have a negative opinion. (Ipsos Spain) 28 August, 2024 (France) Michel Barnier's Appointment To
Matignon: 40% Of French People Think It's A Good Thing For The Country In comparison, the
nomination of Michel Barnier is received by public opinion in the same way as
that of Gabriel Attal (41% good thing ,
28% bad thing ,
31% no opinion ) and
slightly better than that of Elisabeth Borne (36%, 26%, 38%). The populations
most in favour of Michel Barnier's appointment are retirees (53%, 22%, 25%)
and executives (44%, 34%, 22%). He has a certain lack of awareness among the
under-50s (in particular the 35-49 age group, 39% have no opinion ) and among
employees/workers (40% no opinion ). (Elabe) 06 September, 2024 NORTH AMERICA (USA) Why Many Parents And Teens
Think It’s Harder Being A Teen Today Among parents who say it’s
harder being a teen today, about two-thirds cite technology in some way. This
includes 41% who specifically name social media. Parents name other forms of
technology, but at much lower rates. Roughly one-in-ten parents who think
being a teen is harder today specifically say the internet (11%) or
smartphones (7%) contribute to this. Another 26% say technology in general or
some other specific type of technology (e.g., video games or television)
makes teens’ lives harder today. (PEW) 27 August, 2024 From
‘Traditional’ To ‘Open-Minded,’ How Americans Describe Themselves When asked how well
various traits describe them, roughly six-in-ten Republicans and
Republican-leaning independents (58%) say that “traditional” describes them
extremely or very well. Just 19% of Democrats and Democratic leaners say the
same. Republicans are also more likely than their Democratic counterparts to
embrace the description “skeptical of what experts say.” More than
four-in-ten Republicans (44%) say this describes them extremely or very well
– more than twice the share among Democrats (17%). (PEW) 29 August, 2024 The Link Between Local News
Coverage And Americans’ Perceptions Of Crime Americans are more likely
to get news and information about crime than about any other local topic
except the weather, according to the survey. Roughly three-quarters of adults
(77%) say they often or sometimes get local news and information about crime.
That’s more than say the same about traffic (68%), government and politics
(68%), arts and culture (59%), the economy (59%), schools (56%) and sports
(54%). (PEW) 29 August, 2024 How U.S. Public Opinion Has
Changed In 20 Years Of Our Surveys The past two decades have
witnessed the emergence of all sorts of technologies that let people interact
with the world in new ways. For instance, 63% of U.S. adults used the internet in 2004, and 65% owned a cellphone (we weren’t yet asking about
smartphones). Today, 95% of U.S. adults browse the internet, and 90% own a
smartphone, according to our surveys. (PEW) 13 September, 2024 Why Americans Are Pleasantly
Surprised In Retirement An analysis of aggregated
data from 2019-2024 (involving interviews with 2,087 retirees and 3,935
nonretirees) shows that an average of 58% of retired Americans say Social
Security is a “major source” of their retirement income, making it the
important bedrock of their financial security. This is much higher than those
who say pension plans (34%) and 401(k) and retirement plans (29%) are major
sources of their retirement incomes. (Gallup) 22 August, 2024 Democrats Drive Surge In
Election Enthusiasm Americans’ enthusiasm
about voting in this year’s election has surged in recent months, with 69% of
U.S. adults now saying they are “more enthusiastic than usual” about voting.
This is up from 54% in March. Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents
are largely driving the surge in enthusiasm nationally. In March, 55% of
Democrats and Democratic leaners said they were more enthusiastic than usual
about voting; now, 78% are. Republicans and Republican leaners. (Gallup) 29 August, 2024 Oh, The Humanities: Can You
Guess The Most-Regretted College Majors Researchers asked college
completers if they would choose a different field now. The most-lamented
majors: social and behavioral sciences, regretted by 44% of grads, followed
by humanities and arts (43%), life sciences (also 43%), law (41%) and
education (38%). The least-regretted fields? Engineering, a choice regretted
by only 27% of graduates, followed by computer and information sciences (31%)
and health (32%). Across all fields of study, 35% of college graduates said
they would pick a different major, given a second chance. (USA Today) 29 August, 2024 (Canada) Majority (53%) Of Canada’s
Post-Secondary Students Claim Financial Independence, Yet Over Three-Fifths
(62%) Concede They Won’t Make It Through The School Year Without Financial
Help From The Bank Of Mom And Dad A recent Ipsos poll
conducted on behalf of Simplii Financial uncovers some challenges and
inconsistencies with respect to perceptions of financial independence among
Canada’s post-secondary students. For starters, a majority (53%) of
post-secondary students claim to have achieved financial independence yet
three-fifths (62%) concede they won’t be able to make it through the upcoming
school year without financial help from their parents or other family members
and almost half (45%) admit the earnings from their summer employment won’t
cover the school year without any shortfalls. (Ipsos Canada) 27 August, 2024 AUSTRALIA The Share Of Mortgage Holders ‘At Risk’ Of
‘Mortgage Stress’ Fell In July After The Stage 3 Tax Cuts The level of mortgage
holders ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in July (29.8% of mortgage holders) is
set to fall further over the next few months. However, a reduction in
mortgage stress will not happen if the Reserve Bank board decides to raise
interest rates at its next meeting in September. The record high of 35.6% of
mortgage holders in mortgage stress was reached in mid-2008. 797,000 more ‘At
Risk’ of mortgage stress more than two years after interest rate increases. (Roy Morgan) 27 August, 2024 ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Down 0.8pts
To 82.3, Inflation Expectations Remain At Lowest Since November 2021 Now over a fifth of
Australians, 23% (unchanged), say their families are ‘better off’ financially
than this time last year compared to 47% (down 3ppts) that say their families
are ‘worse off’. Views on personal finances over the next year are little
changed this week with Australians evenly split on the question and almost a
third of respondents, 32% (down 1ppt) expecting their family to be ‘better
off’ financially this time next year while slightly more, 32% (up 1ppt),
expect to be ‘worse off’. (Roy Morgan) 10 September, 2024 MULTICOUNTRY STUDIES How People In South Asia View Other South Asian
Countries, Survey In 3 Countries Sri Lankan and Bangladeshi
views of India are largely positive: 65% of Sri Lankans have a favorable view
of India, and 57% of Bangladeshis say the same. (We only asked people in each
country about their views of other countries, not of their home country.) In
Bangladesh, opinions vary by support for the ruling party at the time of the
survey, the Bangladesh Awami League. The survey was fielded before former
Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina resigned and fled to India this month. Supporters of her party
are more likely than nonsupporters to view India favorably (71% vs. 49%). (PEW) 22 August, 2024 August 2024: Consumer Confidence Goes In
Opposite Directions Among Latin American Countries, Survey Across 29
Countries Ipsos’ Global Consumer Confidence Index shows no significant change since
last month (+0.2 point) and is now at 48.7. The index shows stability for the
fifth consecutive month and remains around one point higher than its reading
from this time last year. Among 29 economies measured, six show
significant gains in consumer sentiment, and just three show a notable
decline. Based only on the “legacy 20 countries” tracked since March
2010, the Index would read at 47.3, relatively unchanged (+0.1 point) from
July. The “legacy 20” index sits two points higher than its reading from this
time last year. (Ipsos Global) 27 August, 2024 Many
Around The Globe Say It’s Important Their Leader Stands Up For People’s
Religious Beliefs According To A Study In 35 Nations In the United States, for instance, 64% of adults say it is
important to have a president who stands up for people who share the
respondent’s religious beliefs. Fewer (48%) say it’s important that a
president has their own strong
religious beliefs, even if the beliefs differ from those of the respondent.
And even fewer Americans (37%) say it is important for a president to have
religious beliefs that are the same as the respondent’s. (PEW) 28 August, 2024 Most People In 35 Countries See The UN
Favorably, But Views Have Dipped In Some Places In 22 of the 35 countries
surveyed, majorities see the UN positively. This includes three-quarters or
more in Kenya, the Philippines, Poland, South Korea, Sweden and Thailand. Israelis
have long had more negative than positive views of the UN. This year, their
views are the most negative of the countries polled: 76% there view the
organization unfavorably. Jewish Israelis (82%) have more negative views of
the UN than do Arab Israelis (53%). (PEW) 05 September, 2024 ASIA
861-864-43-01/Polls Literacy Rate – 7th Pakistan Population And Housing Census
Gallup Pakistan, as part
of its Big Data Analysis initiative, is looking at Literacy Rates for
Pakistan. This data is part of a study conducted using the ‘7th Pakistan
Population and Housing Census’. The current edition looks at data from 7th
Pakistan Population and Housing Census, which can be found HERE. What is the
Big Data Analysis Series by Gallup? Gallup Pakistan’s Big Data series was
started by Bilal I Gilani, Executive Director of Gallup Pakistan. Bilal
explains the rationale of the series: “The usual complaint from academics and
policy makers is that Pakistan does not have data availability. Our
experience negates that. Pakistan has lots of data, but it is not available
in a usable form and not widely accessible. At Gallup we plan to bridge this
gap in terms of accessibility and use of data. The Gallup Big Data series has
earlier worked with data sets such as PSLM, Labour Force Survey, and Economic
Survey reports as well as National Census Reports and Election Commission
Data sets. The current series is using the 7th Pakistan Population and
Housing Census, which provides a variety of health statistics. We hope that
these series are useful, and we welcome both feedback as well as possible
collaborations as we create a public good in the form of useful data sets in
Pakistan.” What data points this current edition covers: This series aims to
present the important learnings from the 7th Pakistan Population and Housing
Census, for policy makers, the public, as well as for marketers in an easy
and understandable way. This edition looks at Literacy Rate statistics for
Pakistan. The series’ main aim is to provide data. Implications of these data
points for development sector as well as wider socio-political ramifications
is something we would like to trigger in relevant circles.
Key Findings: 1. Literacy
Rate for Pakistan: Overall literacy rate improved by
1.8%, from 58.9% in 2017 to 60.7% in 2023. 2. Literacy Rate by Province: From 2017 to 2023, the total literacy rate in Punjab,
Sindh and ICT increased by 2.3%, 2.9% and 2.5% respectively, while it fell
for KP by 2.9% and for Balochistan by 1.6%. 3. Literacy Rate by Region: Between 2017 to 2023, urban areas showed a modest
increase of 0.9%, while rural areas saw a more substantial rise of 1.5% in
their literacy rates. 4. Literary Rate by Age Group: Within age groups, the highest literacy rate recorded
was among the 13-14 year olds living in urban areas (88.8%). 5. Gender
and Regional Literacy Gaps narrow to 0.7% and 9.5% among Pakistan's youngest
age group (5-9 year olds). 1.
Literacy Rate by Gender and Rural/Urban 1 According to the 2023
Census, approximately 104 million out of 172 million Pakistanis over the age
of 10 were literate, resulting in an overall literacy rate of 60.7% (Fig. 1).
Men had a notably higher literacy rate (68%) compared to women (52.8%), and
urban areas (74.1%) outpaced rural regions (51.6%) in literacy.
This records an
improvement of 1.7 percentage points from 20172 , when the overall literacy
rate was 58.9%. Since then, the rate has improved by 0.2% for men and 3.2%
for women. Compared to 2017, urban areas saw an improvement of 0.9% in their
literacy rates, while they improved by 1.5% for rural populations. The disparities in
literacy rates across different demographics underscore the need for targeted
interventions. In particular, the lower literacy rates among women and rural
populations suggest that these groups require focused attention. Policymakers
should consider implementing gender-sensitive educational programs that
address the specific challenges faced by women, such as cultural barriers and
limited access to educational resources. Additionally, improving
infrastructure and resources in rural areas could help close the gap between
urban and rural literacy rates.
From 2017 to 2023, the
total literacy rate in Punjab, Sindh and ICT increased by 2.2%, 3.0% and 2.5%
respectively, while it fell for KP by 2.9% and for Balochistan by 1.6% (Fig
2). Male populations in ICT recorded the highest literacy rate in 2023 (88.2%),
while the lowest was recorded among with female population in Balochistan
(32.8%). Among the provinces, Punjab had the highest urban (76.7%) and rural
(58.4%) literacy rate in 2023. It is interesting to note that provinces and
regions that are better off to begin with, in terms of resources, tend to
improve faster than those with larger rural populations or misdirected
resources. While provinces have more legislative and financial autonomy with
respect to the education sector, it is important to consider their overall
availability of resources – it becomes increasingly difficult to prioritize
education when access to basic necessities is not adequate.
Figure 3 more clearly
illustrates the change in literacy rates between 2017 and 2023 across
different demographics in Pakistan. These findings once again highlight that
while Pakistan has made strides in improving literacy rates, especially among
women and in provinces like Sindh and Punjab, there are still areas that
require focused attention, such as KP and Balochistan, where literacy rates
have declined. The significant gains in female literacy and urban areas
suggest that targeted initiatives can yield positive results. These insights
are crucial for policymakers as they underscore the effectiveness of
localized education policies and the need for continued support in
underperforming regions. 3.
Literacy Rate by Age Group Within age groups, the
highest literacy rate recorded was among the 13-14 year olds living in urban
areas (88.8%), while the lowest was among women aged over 60 (23.2%).
Individuals older than 60 who lived in urban areas had a significantly higher
literacy rate (70.5%) than their rural counterparts (45.4%). Literacy rates
are among the metrics that can help determine whether the younger population
is receiving adequate education. The data from the census presents some
intriguing findings in this regard. For those aged 15-24, the literacy rate
decreased by 0.5% between 2017 (68.5%) and 2023 (68.2%) while for the 10-14
age group, it fell from 72.9% in 2017 to 68.5% in 2023 – a decline of 4.4%.
While an overall improvement in literacy rate is a sign of progress,
pinpointing which areas, provinces and age-groups need are lacking behind the
rest could be the first step in creating targeted policies and legislation
that would eventually lead to equitable access to education for all.
Strategies could include investing in early childhood education, enhancing
teacher training, and ensuring that schools are equipped with the necessary
resources to provide quality education. Implementing targeted interventions
will not only improve literacy rates but also contribute to broader social
and economic development by empowering all citizens with the skills they need
to participate fully in society.
Figure 5 highlights the
differences in literacy rates between males and females, as well as between
urban and rural populations, across various age groups. The most pronounced
disparities are observed in those over the age of 60, with a 24.3% gender gap
and a 28.9% regional gap. However, a promising trend emerges among younger
age groups, where these gaps significantly narrow. For example, the gender
difference in literacy rates for the 5-9 age group is only 0.7%, and for
those aged 5-16, it is just 4.4%. Although the regional gap remains more
substantial, it is notably smaller among the youngest age group (9.5%) and
the 5-16 group (15.4%).
These findings suggest
that recent efforts to promote gender and regional equity in education are
beginning to bear fruit, especially among the younger population. The
narrowing gaps among children and adolescents indicate progress towards a
more balanced educational landscape. By continuing to focus on these younger
age groups and expanding access to education in rural areas and for women,
policymakers can further close these gaps in the coming years. 05 September, 2024 Source:
https://gallup.com.pk/wp/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/PR-4-1.pdf
861-864-43-02/Polls Almost Half Of Pakistanis (48%) Think That Marrying Someone
Richer Or Poorer Than Them Would Be Easy
According to a survey conducted by Gallup &
Gilani Pakistan, almost half of Pakistanis (48%) think that marrying someone
richer or poorer than them would be easy. Survey findings revealed men were
10% more likely than women to hold this view. Urban respondents were 9% more
likely to hold a similar belief, relative to their rural counterparts. More
than half (54%) of the adults aged under 30 were the most likely to think
that such a marriage would be easy in their community. This
press release is in a series of press releases Gallup Pakistan is producing
on the subject of marriage and social behavior. You can access the previous
press release in this series here. A nationally representative sample of
adult men and women from across the country was asked the question, “Please
tell us how easy would you say it is to do the following in your community:
Marrying someone richer or poorer than you.” In response, 23% said ‘Very
easy’, 25% said ‘Somewhat easy’, 16% answered ‘Somewhat difficult’, 26%
responded ‘Very difficult’, and 10% either did not know or gave no response.
Across gender: Pakistani
men were 10% more likely to believe that marrying someone richer or poorer
than them would be easy in their community, relative to the women who were
surveyed (43%). However, there was minimal difference in the difficulty
ratings by each gender, and a significant number of women (15%) either said
they did not know or chose not to respond.
Across rurality: Urban
residents of Pakistan were 9% more likely (54%) to think that marrying
someone of a different level of wealth is easy in their communities, relative
to rural residents (45%).
Across age groups:
Pakistani adults aged 18 to 29 years (under 30) were the most likely (54%) to
think that it is easy to marry someone richer or poorer than them, followed
by those between 30 and 50 years of age (46%), and adults over the age of 50
being the least likely to think this would be easy (45%). However, it must be
noted that for the age groups ‘30 – 50’ and ‘50+’, the proportion of
respondents who either did not know or chose not to respond was quite high
(12% each), as compared to those under the age of 30
06 September, 2024 Source:
https://gallup.com.pk/wp/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/06.09.2024.Daily-poll-English.pdf
861-864-43-03/Polls What Migration Reveals About Religion In India
The religious composition
of Indians who emigrate differs significantly from those who stay in India,
analysis by the US-based Pew Research Center has found. About 80% of people in India are Hindu, but they
form only 41% of emigrants from the country, the survey on the religious composition of the world's
migrants says. "Many more Muslims
and Christians have left India than have moved there. People of other,
smaller religions, like Sikhs and Jains, are also disproportionately likely
to have left India," Stephanie Kramer, a lead researcher of the
analysis, told me. More than 280 million
people, or 3.6% of the world’s population, are international migrants. As of 2020, Christians
comprised 47% of the global migrant population, Muslims 29%, Hindus 5%,
Buddhists 4% and Jews 1%, according to Pew Research Center's analysis of UN
data and 270 censuses and surveys. The religiously
unaffiliated, including atheists and agnostics, made up 13% of global
migrants who have left their country of birth. The migrant population in
the analysis includes anyone living outside their birthplace, from babies to
oldest adults. They could have been born at any time as long as they are
still alive. As far as India is
concerned, the analysis found that the religious make-up of the population
who have moved to India is much more similar to that of the country's overall
population. Also, Hindus are starkly
under-represented among international migrants (5%) compared with their share
of the global population (15%). There are about one billion Hindus around the
world. “This seems to be because
Hindus are so concentrated in India and people born in India are very
unlikely to leave,” said Ms Kramer. “More people who were born
in India are living elsewhere than from any other country of origin, but
these millions of emigrants represent a small fraction of India's
population.” About 99% of Hindus lived
in Asia back in 2010, almost entirely in India and Nepal, and researchers say
they wouldn't expect that share to drop much, if at all. Since partition, India hasn't experienced a mass migration
event, and many of those who migrated then are no longer alive. “In contrast, other
religious groups are more dispersed globally and face more push factors that
drive emigration,” Ms Kramer said. So are Hindus some sort of a global outlier in this
respect? Researchers say Hindus do
stand out in comparison to the other religious groups analysed. “They're less likely to
leave home than people of other faiths, and their global migration patterns
mostly depend on who leaves and arrives in India, rather than a broad
collection of countries like other major religions,” says Ms Kramer. The analysis found that
Hindus have the longest average migration distance of 4,988km (3,100 miles),
often moving from India to distant places like the US and the UK. Researchers attribute this
to the lack of recent crises forcing Hindus to flee to nearby countries.
Instead, most are economic migrants seeking job opportunities, often in
distant locations. India certainly isn’t
unique in having an emigrant population with a religious make-up different
from those still living in the country. Hindus are
over-represented among emigrants from Bangladesh, according to the survey. The study estimates that
fewer than 10% of residents of Bangladesh are Hindu but 21% of the people who
have left Bangladesh are Hindu. Around 90% of people
living in Bangladesh are Muslim, but 67% of emigrants from Bangladesh are
Muslim. Hindus make up only about
2% of Pakistan's population, and 8% of people who were born in Pakistan and
now live elsewhere are Hindu. Myanmar has a lower
percentage of Muslims in its population of residents compared with its
emigrant population. Muslims make up about 4% of Myanmar's resident
population and 36% of its emigrant population. Clearly, Muslims also migrate out of majority-Muslim
countries. But religious minorities in those countries often migrate more. So what does the Pew
report broadly reveal about the religious composition of the world's
migrants? "We find that people
often go to places where their religion is common, and that those from
minority religious groups within their country of birth are more likely to
leave," says Ms Kramer. 20 August, 2024 Source:
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm23n23dwx3o MENA
861-864-43-04/Polls Lebanon Migration Insights: 2024 Public Opinion Factsheet
In the eighth wave of Arab
Barometer, we interviewed 2,400 Lebanese citizens between February and April
2024 to help shed light on their migration preferences. This survey provides
a snapshot of how current economic, political, and security challenges—including
the escalating tensions between Israel and Hezbollah—are shaping these
migration aspirations. This factsheet highlights
key findings from the survey, with links to more detailed information where
available. Key
Findings
20 August, 2024 Source:
https://www.arabbarometer.org/2024/08/lebanon-migration-insights-2024-public-opinion-factsheet/ AFRICA
861-864-43-05/Polls Zambians Demand Presidential Accountability
Zambia has been one of
Africa’s most unwavering democracies since returning to a multiparty system
almost 30 years ago (ActionAid, 2019; USAID, 2023). The country joined a
small group of African states that have experienced three transfers of power
via elections when its 2021 contest resulted in a clear victory for the
opposition United Party for National Development (Mfula, 2021). Marked by transparent,
credible, and peaceful elections (Carter Center, 2021; Simutanyi &
Hinfelaar, 2018), Zambia’s parliamentary democracy, independent media, and
independent oversight bodies have enforced checks and balances making
accountability a central piece of governance and reducing the risk of power
abuse and corruption (National Assembly of Zambia, 2022; Civicus Lens, 2021;
USAID, 2023; Simutanyi & Hinfelaar, 2018). The quality of political
and economic governance in Zambia declined between 2019 and 2021, compounded
by the COVID-19 pandemic and newly introduced restrictions on citizens’
freedoms of movement, association, assembly, and expression (Bertelsmann Stiftung,
2024; Civicus Lens, 2021; Méndez-Beck, 2021). Ahead of the August
2021 general election, the government and the then-ruling Patriotic
Front party, with the support of a compromised police service and electoral
commission, used the pandemic as an excuse to restrict public meetings while
allowing the ruling party to campaign freely (Carter Center, 2021;
Méndez-Beck, 2021). After a period of rising
public discontent with corruption and harassment of political
opponents (Bertelsmann Stiftung, 2024, Méndez-Beck, 2021; ActionAid,
2019), the 2021 election set high expectations among the citizenry for the
government to deliver on democracy’s promises (USAID, 2023; Carter Center,
2021). However, almost three
years after the change of government, some stakeholders continue to complain
about restrictions on freedoms of association, assembly, and expression
(Daily Nation, 2023; Zambian Observer, 2023; Zambian Eye, 2023). Further, the
failure of President Hakainde Hichilema and most senior government officials
to publicly declare their assets and liabilities as required by law has drawn
sharp public criticism (U.S. Mission in Zambia, 2023; Alliance for Community
Action, 2022). How do ordinary Zambians
see the balance of power and accountability in their
country? Findings from
Afrobarometer’s Round 9 survey (2022) show that citizens overwhelmingly
endorse democracy and reject one-person rule without accountability. Most
insist that their president be accountable to Parliament and obey the
country’s laws and courts, even if he thinks they are wrong. Majorities favour
strengthening laws requiring leaders to declare their income and assets, and
many see Hichilema’s failure to declare his assets as evidence of a lack of
commitment to fighting corruption. Key findings
04 September, 2024 Source:
https://www.afrobarometer.org/publication/ad846-zambians-demand-presidential-accountability/
861-864-43-06/Polls Namibians Grow More Dissatisfied With Government’s Efforts
On Electricity Provision
Namibia’s National
Electrification Policy aims to achieve universal electricity access by
2040 (Muyamba, 2023). The country’s overall electrification rate is
estimated at 50%, but between 70% and 80% of rural households remain
without power (Brandt, 2022; Namibia Economist, 2022), while 70% of
households in urban areas are electrified (Matthys, 2022). To meet its current energy
demands, Namibia relies heavily on power imported from neighbouring
South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe (Tlhage, 2023; Matthys, 2023). Its state
owned power utility, NamPower, generates only 40% of the country’s electricity
needs (Green Energy Africa Summit, 2023), but the parastatal intends to
reduce its dependency on imports by increasing its generating capacity
as outlined in its Integrated Strategic Business Plan (2020-2025)
(Institute for Public Policy Research, 2023). In 2021, electricity was
the third-most imported product in Namibia (OEC World, 2023). South
Africa has historically been Namibia’s largest supplier of power, but as its
national energy company, Eskom, struggles with power-generation woes of
its own, Namibia’s vulnerability to energy supply shocks has been
exposed (International Trade Administration, 2024). To ensure energy security
in the long term, the Namibian government has articulated a commitment
to renewables in its National Renewable Energy Policy (2017), which aims
to help the country “meet its short-term and long-term national
development goals, and to assist Namibians to climb the development
ladder, empowered by access to energy at levels that facilitate
engagement in productive activity” (Ministry of Mines and Energy,
2017). In line with this
ambition, Namibia is positioning itself as a leader in the green hydrogen
space (Tlhage, 2024). During a recent state visit to Namibia, King Philippe
of Belgium met with President Nangolo Mbumba to discuss accelerating
the African country’s green hydrogen efforts and forging an energy
partnership to respond to climate change (Petersen, 2024). Afrobarometer survey
findings provide an on-the-ground look at electricity access in
Namibia. While a majority of Namibians live in zones served by the electric
grid, fewer than four in 10 enjoy a reliable supply of electricity,
including just one-fifth of rural residents. More than two-thirds of
citizens say the government is performing poorly on the provision of
reliable electricity, the worst rating recorded in two decades of
Afrobarometer surveys. Key findings
06 September, 2024
861-864-43-07/Polls Seychellois Rate Government Efforts To Protect The
Environment Highly, But Want It To Do More
In 2018, Seychelles
launched a sovereign blue bond, the first of its kind globally, to
support marine conservation (World Bank, 2018). Demonstrating its
commitment to safeguarding the foundation of its economy, the Indian
Ocean, the Seychelles government has designated about 30% of its waters as
marine protected areas, regulating human activity while promoting
sustainable fishing and tourism (Laurence, 2020; United Nations
Environment Programme, 2018). In 2023, the Tourism Environmental
Sustainability Levy was introduced to support environmental
rehabilitation initiatives (Government of Seychelles, 2023). Plastic debris is a
pressing threat to the island nation’s marine ecosystem. A 2023 study
found that Seychelles is not responsible for most of the trash – most
debris is carried on ocean currents from Indonesia, India, and Sri
Lanka (Vogt-Vincent et al., 2023). To intercept the debris, various
organisations collaborate with government departments to involve the
public in regular cleanup missions (Global Cleanup Network, 2020;
Seychelles Conservation and Climate Adaptation Trust, 2021; Seychelles
National Assembly, 2023). The government has also
identified solid waste management as a significant environmental
challenge. Due to limited land area and growing volumes of waste, the
country’s primary landfill is projected to reach its full capacity in
2025. To reduce landfill deposits, the government is promoting a
circular-economy approach to production, encouraging businesses to shift from
generating waste to using more of it as an input (Uzice, 2024; Connery,
2023). This dispatch reports on a
special survey module included in the Afrobarometer Round 9 (2021/2023)
questionnaire to explore Africans’ experiences and perceptions of
pollution, environmental governance, and natural resource
extraction. Findings show that more
than half of Seychellois consider pollution a serious problem in their
community. Trash disposal tops the list of respondents’ most urgent local
environmental problems, and a majority say plastic bags are a major
source of pollution in the country. Ordinary citizens are most
likely to look to one another to reduce pollution and keep their
communities clean. Although respondents broadly approve of the
government’s performance in protecting the environment, most say
greater efforts are needed, including tighter regulation of natural resource
extraction. Few Seychellois think the government should prioritise
economic considerations over environmental protection. Key findings
06 September, 2024
861-864-43-08/Polls Ugandan Women Still Face Barriers To Equality In Education,
Employment, And Politics
Women’s empowerment is a
question of both individual human rights and social progress. As the
United Nations Development Programme (2014) asserts, “Unless women and girls
are able to fully realise their rights in all spheres of life, human development
will not be advanced.” Despite Uganda’s progress
toward gender equality in many areas (United Nations Development
Programme, 2022), persistent gaps in economic participation,
educational attainment, and political empowerment are evident in the
World Economic Forum’s (2024) Global Gender Gap Index, which ranks
Uganda 83rd out of 146 countries. The government has signed
on to the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals, whose Goal 5
champions women’s full and effective participation and equal
opportunities for leadership at all levels of decision making. The
country has tried a wide variety of policies and programmes aimed at
empowering girls and women, from preferential university admissions to gender
set-asides in Parliament and local councils. The 2006 National Equal
Opportunities Policy seeks to eliminate discrimination and promote equal
opportunities for all Ugandans, and the 2007 Uganda Gender Policy aims
to incorporate a gender perspective into the planning and
implementation of development programmes (Ministry of Gender, Labour,
and Social Development, 2006, 2007). The government takes aim at gender
disparities in education with a National Strategy for Girls’ Education that
emphasises public and private partnerships to promote girls’ education
(Ministry of Education and Sports, 2013). In 2023, Parliament passed
the Employment Amendment Act, which provides workplace protections for
women – including pregnant and breastfeeding women – and requires all
employers to prominently display policies against sexual harassment. It also
extends vital legal protections for domestic workers, many of whom are
women (Kampala Associated Advocates, 2023). Afrobarometer offers a
citizens’ perspective on the effectiveness of strategies to empower
women. Survey findings in Uganda suggest that women continue to face
discrimination, harassment, and barriers in various facets of life, both
public and private. Ugandan women are less
likely than men to have higher education and paying jobs. Few
respondents say that families still prioritise boys’ education over girls’,
but significant minorities report that husbands and relatives prevent
women from taking employment and that sexual harassment of women and
girls in public spaces, including schools, is common. And while a
majority of citizens support women’s equal chance at being elected to public
office, the share who espouse this view has declined since Afrobarometer’s
previous survey in 2022. Most Ugandans say women
and girls are likely to be believed if they complain of discrimination
or harassment, but most also think the police and courts need to do more
to protect women and girls from such treatment. Key findings
10 September, 2024 WEST EUROPE
861-864-43-09/Polls 28% Of Parents Say They Are Finding It Difficult To Afford
Uniforms And Back To School Supplies
One in five also say they find it difficult to afford to
feed their children during the school holidays While children across the
land will be dreading the return to schools this September, their parents
will have already contended with their own concerns – the costs associated
with sending them back.
Indeed, a quarter (26%) of
parents with children going to school this year say that they have previously
had to skip meals to ensure they could feed their children instead. With 67%
of those skipping meals saying the most recent time they did so was within
the last twelve months, this means that approximately 17% (around one in six)
of parents with children in school have had to skip meals this year to be
certain they could afford to feed their family.
29 August, 2024
861-864-43-10/Polls How Do Britons Feel About The Royals After Two Years Of
King Charles
Six in ten Britons have positive view of the King, but
William and Kate remain Britain's favourite royals Having not had an easy
2024 so far, the royal family can take some comfort in the knowledge that
their popularity with the British public remains solid, with King Charles
still popular two years after acceding to the throne. More popular, though, are heir apparent Prince
William and his wife Catherine, Princess of Wales. They are Britain’s
favourite royals, with three-quarters of Britons (74-75%) having a favourable
view of the couple, and disliking the two a minority view (13-16%). Princess
Anne is the only other royal to maintain a similarly high level of
popularity, with seven in ten Britons (71%) looking upon the Princess Royal
positively.
Where there should be some
worry for the palace, however, is that the only part of the public where the
King does not hold a double-digit positive favourability rating is among
18-24 year olds, among whom only a quarter (25%) have a positive opinion, compared
to a majority (53%) who view their King negatively. William and Kate, though,
have clearly net positive approval ratings among younger Britons (+20 and +23
respectively). Opinion about Princess
Beatrice, Princess Eugenie and Sophie, Duchess of Edinburgh remains roughly
where it was when YouGov first asked about them in May, with between around four in ten and half
of Britons (38-52%) viewing them positively, but with a clear chunk of the
public holding no view (37-41% saying ‘don’t know’ about them). Prince Edward
sits in a similar ballpark, with Britons tending towards a positive view
(53%), but many also unsure (28%). More divisive is Camilla,
the Queen Consort. While half of the British public (49%) have a positive
view of the once controversial figure, four in ten (38%) still see her in a
negative light. Nonetheless, there is
clear water between Camilla and the unpopular members of the family. Just
three in ten Britons (30%) have a positive view of Prince Harry and less than
a quarter (23%) of Meghan, Duchess of Sussex, against majorities of the
public who have unfavourable opinions of the two (60% for Harry and 63% for
Megan). But least popular of all
remains Prince Andrew, with just 5% of the British public viewing him
positively, the lowest we have ever recorded for him. An overwhelming 87% of
Britons say they have a negative opinion of the disgraced royal. Arguably most notable
about the royal favourability ratings, though, is how stable they are. In an era when government disapproval has
shifted by 20 points in just one month, it is striking how little variation there has been in the
popularity of senior royals in the two years since Charles III became King. Other than some shifts in
late 2022, most notably a massive decline in positivity and increase in
negativity towards Prince Harry, there are no royals who are viewed
substantively differently today to the day the King acceded to the throne.
How
do Britons feel about the wider monarchy? Beyond the individual
royals, the British public are still clear in their support of the royalty –
six in ten Britons having a positive view of both the family as a whole (63%)
and the underlying institution of the monarchy (59%). This is roughly double the
number of Britons holding the opposing views, with three in ten (30%) holding
a negative opinion of the ruling family and 32% sceptical of the monarchy. A similar split is true
when thinking about the constitutional future of the royal family. Two-thirds
of the British public (65%) believe we should continue to have a monarchy,
while a quarter (25%) would favour an elected head of state instead. However,
there has been a clear fall in how solidly Britons’ hold these attitudes,
with only two-thirds (67%) saying they feel strongly about whether we should
or should not keep the monarchy, down from 77% in May.
This idea that Britain
should remain a monarchy is fairly broad, being held by 94% of Conservative
voters, 81% of Reform UK voters, as well as clear majorities of Lib Dem (60%)
and Labour (55%) voters. The only parts of the public that are the exceptions
are in Scotland, which evenly splits 41% in a favour of a monarchy and 43% in
favour of an elected head of state, and 18-24 year olds, only a third of whom
(35%) want to maintain a monarchy going forwards. 30 August, 2024
861-864-43-11/Polls The Conservatives And Reform UK Are Most Likely To Be Seen
As Similar, But Fewer Than Half Think Any Two Of The Main Parties Are Alike
Complaints about political
parties being too similar are frequent, with the growing level of
multi-partyism in British elections attributed to voters feeling that the
traditional options just aren’t distinguishable. Having asked the public to
compare each of the five main UK parties, however, there is no party pair
that a majority of people consider similar, even if some parties are
undoubtedly perceived as closer than others. Also splitting the public
down the middle are Labour relative to the Lib Dems, and the Lib Dems
compared against the Greens, with four in ten Britons (38-42%) feeling that
both pairs are both similar and distinct from one another.
The idea that Labour and
the Greens are somewhat interchangeable is likewise held by only one in four
Britons (26%), while only one in five (20%) feel the onetime coalition
partners of the Conservatives and the Lib Dems are kindred spirits. Not viewed as similar at
all are the Conservatives and the Greens, as well as Reform UK and all three
major progressive parties. Only between 4-7% of Britons view these four
matchups as similar, with more than three-quarters (76-78%) feeling they are
different. Voters
disagree on how comparable the parties are, with Reform UK least likely to
see their party as similar to others However, not all groups of
voters agree on how distinguishable the parties are. With the top pairing of
the Conservatives and Reform UK, two-thirds of Labour and Lib Dem voters
(65-66%) view the two major right-wing parties as similar, but only 36% of
Conservatives and just a quarter of Reform voters (27%) agree. When it comes to the two
main parties, there is a clear mainstream vs newcomer split. Just one in
eight Labour voters (13%) and one in six Conservatives (18%) feel the big two
are similar, compared to around four in ten Green and Reform UK voters
(37-41%). Sometimes there are even
distinctions between the two parties in the pairing – half of Lib Dems (50%)
believe their party is similar to the Greens, but less than three in ten
Greens (28%) reciprocate, being the least likely voter group to feel the two
parties are similar.
One particularly
noticeable trend is Reform UK voters being the least likely to feel their
party is similar to others, but usually the most likely to say that other
parties are close together. This suggests that they tend to view Reform UK as
a distinct entity away from a somewhat homogenous mainstream. Green voters
exhibit a similar pattern, including being the most likely to view the
Conservatives and Lib Dems as similar. Perhaps most surprisingly
is that only slightly more than four in ten Labour and Lib Dem voters
(42-43%) perceive their two parties as being similar, in spite of the high level of similarity between their two
voter bases and
the willingness of voters to use them somewhat
interchangeably. 02 September, 2024 Source:
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/50430-how-similar-do-britons-think-the-main-parties-are
861-864-43-12/Polls The Honeymoon Is Over: Keir Starmer's Net Favourability
Falls To Lowest Level Since February
Keir Starmer’s favourability ratings continue to fall, but
he remains the most positively viewed politician As Keir Starmer reaches
two months in office, his favourability ratings have fallen to their lowest
levels since he became prime minister. Just a third
of Britons (35%) now have a favourable view of the Labour leader, the fewest
since June and down from 44%
after the election. This is against 56% of the public
holding now an unfavourable view of Starmer, his joint worst figure recorded
with YouGov this year. It should be noted,
though, that this is not really a case of Starmer’s popularity falling to new
depths, instead it just seems that the post-election honeymoon is well and
truly over. His current levels of favourability, unfavourability and net
favourability are unexceptional compared to his ratings for the first half of
this year – his current net score of -21, for instance, is level with his
rating from February.
However, despite his
ratings clearly slipping, more Britons still hold a favourable view of him
than any of his fellow party leaders or cabinet colleagues. Just shy of three in ten
Britons hold a positive view of Reform UK leader Nigel Farage or deputy prime
minister Angela Rayner (both 28%), while a quarter of the public are
favourable towards Lib Dem leader Ed Davey (25%) and leader of the opposition
Rishi Sunak (24%). One in five Britons hold good opinions of chancellor
of the exchequer Rachel Reeves (21%) and home secretary Yvette Cooper (20%),
with one in seven feeling similarly towards foreign secretary David Lammy. In
all three cases, though, clear portions of the public (40-56%) currently
‘don’t know’ how they feel about the three senior cabinet ministers,
something that is even more pronounced with Green Party leaders Carla Denyer
and Adrian Ramsay, who more than eight in ten Britons (81-86%) are unsure
about.
But while ‘don’t know’
might still be a common response with the new cabinet, where opinions are
forming, it’s not on the positive side. After some initial
positivity towards Rachel Reeves, including an increasingly rare net positive
favourability rating (+4, 10-11 July 2024), public opinion has already turned
somewhat against the new chancellor. For the one in five Britons (21%) who
currently hold a positive view of Reeves, twice as many (40%) have now formed
an unfavourable opinion of her – the difficult decisions she says she is
having to make seemingly not endearing her to the public.
By contrast, Nigel
Farage’s ratings represent a small recovery from a spike in negativity after the riots. This includes returning to a net positive
score among Leave voters (+8, up from -4 in early August). Nonetheless,
Farage remains clearly divisive – although more Britons (11%) have a very favourable view of him than
any other politician – even if more have any kind of favourable opinion of Starmer – Farage is
also the only British political figure for whom a majority of Britons (51%)
have a very unfavourable
view.
This comes from having a
highly loyal fanbase among Reform UK voters, but limited popularity outside
his party. More than half of Reform UK voters (55%) have a very favourable
view of Farage, compared to only one in five Labour voters (19%) who feel the
same about Keir Starmer, one in six Lib Dems (17%) who have strongly positive
views of Ed Davey and just one in seven Conservative voters (14%) who hold
Rishi Sunak in the highest esteem. Public
remain unfamiliar with Conservative leadership contenders Soon to be added to the
roster of party leaders will be the winner of the ongoing Conservative
leadership election. With the Tory membership, who will decide the
contest, Kemi Badenoch is currently the frontrunner, but with the public, who will ultimately
decide their electoral fate, the contenders are still relative unknowns more
than a month after announcing their candidacies. Half of Britons (48-53%)
don’t know how they feel about James Cleverly or Kemi Badenoch, with
two-thirds (64-67%) unsure about Robert Jenrick or Tom Tugendhat, and eight
in ten (79%) offering no opinion on Mel Stride. In all cases, this represents
no real movement since they were asked about at the end of July.
Priti Patel is the
exception among the contenders in that only 18% of the public say they ‘don’t
know’ their opinion of the former home Secretary. Two-thirds of Britons (65%)
already have an unfavourable view of Patel, only a little less than the seven
in ten (70%) who have a negative view of current leader Rishi Sunak and more
than the 56% who have an unfavourable opinion of Keir Starmer. For the rest, while the
number of Britons saying they have unfavourable opinions about them clearly
outnumbers those with a positive view, there remains room for first
impressions to change the picture. Even with James Cleverly and Kemi
Badenoch, of whom around one in three Britons (34-36%) say they have a
negative view. 03 September, 2024
861-864-43-13/Polls Most NHS Staff Say Staff Shortages And Burnout Are
Impacting Patient Care
Fixing the NHS was a
prominent issue of the general election, with parties offering up a range of
policies and costed plans aimed to address long waiting lists and
inefficiencies within the system. The new health secretary Wes Streeting has since ordered a review of
the NHS, with the Labour
government hoping to address the “hard truths” within healthcare. During the penultimate
week of Rishi Sunak’s government, YouGov polled NHS workers across the board
about their experience of working in healthcare. Seven
in ten NHS workers in patient-facing roles say staff shortages regularly
impact the quality of care provided
It is well-documented that
the NHS has struggled with staff shortages and significant patient backlogs,
particularly since the pandemic. Our research reveals that
shortly before Labour took over the controls, 70% of NHS workers said they
were taking on more than their usual workload to compensate for staff
shortages, including 71% of patient-facing staff. Although most NHS workers
(58%) say their core workload is manageable most of the time, this drops to
21% when accounting for extra duties. Majority
of NHS workers experience burnout or emotional exhaustion at work at least
some of the time Our survey reveals a
challenging day-to-day reality for NHS workers. During the week of our
fieldwork, staff were most likely to report feeling “frustrated” (57%) and
“stressed” (53%), and only a quarter (25%) feeling “happy”. Three quarters (73%) say
they experience burnout or exhaustion at least some of the time, including
27% who feel this way “always” or “most of the time”.
This may help explain why
NHS staff are so divided over recommending a career in healthcare to a family
member or friend – 42% say they would, but 47% would not. An ageing population is
expected to place even more pressure on the NHS in the coming decades, but in
terms of staff retention, a quarter (27%) say it is unlikely that they will
be working in the NHS in five years' time.
One in eight go further,
with 13% saying they were planning to leave the NHS within the next 12
months. 06 September, 2024
861-864-43-14/Polls 85% Say Britain Is Divided As Concern About Extremism Rises
New polling by
Ipsos, taken August 9-12 (in the wake of the riots and unrest that have
occurred in recent weeks), has examined attitudes towards crime, extremism
and divisions in society.
Thinking about the riots
specifically, a large majority, 84%, are concerned about the safety of people
living in communities where riots and unrest have taken place. In terms
of the response to the unrest, Britons are broadly positive towards the police,
split on their views towards politicians, and critical of social media
companies. 6 in 10 (60%) believe that social media companies have done a bad
job at responding to the riots and unrest. Conversely, there is broad support
for the police, with 59% saying they have done a good job. 39% approve of
Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s response to events, and 29% are critical.
Only 13% think Rishi Sunak has done a good job (and 41% are critical),
while 21% are positive towards Nigel Farage’s response to the riots, and 48%
are critical.
The public is split on
whether they are personally worried about becoming the victim of a crime,
however levels of concern are up since June. Overall, 49% report being
worried about becoming a victim (+6 ppts). Concern is highest among those
aged 18-34, with 6 in 10 (63%) saying they are worried. 55% of women are
concerned (+4), compared with 42% of men (-1). Commenting on the
findings, Hannah Shrimpton, Research
Director, Public Affairs at Ipsos, said: The
riots and unrest across the UK have clearly been having an impact on public
opinion, with rising concern about crime, different types of extremism, and
the impact of political divisions on British society. Our latest poll,
taken in the aftermath of these events, found that there has been strong
public support for the police response and concern for the local communities
most directly affected, while ratings of Keir Starmer’s actions are more
moderate, though still more positive than negative. Whether or not this a
short-term reaction or if these new levels of concern are sustained, there
needs to be a focus on how people from across the spectrum engage with those
with differing political views, with the public also asking questions about
the response from social media companies. 22 August, 2024 Source:
https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/85-percent-say-britain-is-divided-as-concern-about-extremism-rises
861-864-43-15/Polls 45% Agree That Brits Talk About The Weather Too Much
New polling by Ipsos,
taken August 16-20, has examined attitudes towards one of Britain’s favourite
pastimes – talking about the weather.
Elsewhere in the poll,
people were asked about how high the temperature would have to reach to
consider doing a range of activities:
It
seems us Brits are obsessed with the weather, with new research revealing
that 45% of us saying that we talk about it too much. It's no surprise then
that almost half of those surveyed said the weather had an impact on their
mood, with good weather improving it. However, this shouldn't be
mistaken for Brits being unable to cope with more extreme temperatures, as
the research also shows that over half of us don't think that we cope well
when the temperature goes above average for the time of year. 02 September, 2024 Source:
https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/45-percent-agree-brits-talk-about-weather-too-much
861-864-43-16/Polls Spaniards Withdraw Their Support For The Presence Of
Technology In Classrooms
With the imminent start of
a new school year, public education will once again be put into operation as
a universal system that seeks to guarantee equal opportunities for all boys
and girls. Educational systems that have undergone numerous changes over the
years, different models that have never been free from criticism, but, in
reality, what do citizens think of
education in their countries? Ipsos has once again answered
this question through its Global Education Monitor carried out in 30
countries, including Spain, which reveals relevant findings. Parents
and young people are the ones who value the Spanish education system the most The global trend remains
negative regarding the quality of national education systems, with an average
of 36% of the world's population believing that the system is poor, compared
to 33% who believe that it is good. In
Spain, the majority also believe that the system is flawed (38%) compared to
31% who say that it is a good system . Despite these figures,
Spain is among the five European countries with the most positive opinion of
public education in their country, behind Ireland (64%), Great Britain (44%),
the Netherlands (41%), and Sweden (40%). And it seems that in terms
of education, times past were better, as is evident when citizens are asked
to compare the current system with the one they lived in. The majority of the world's population (57%), on
average, believes that education is worse now than in their time, something
that is also confirmed in Spain where 1 in 2
Spaniards agree with that opinion, with only 24% believing that it is better
now . However,
and beyond the educational field, 42% share the idea that growing up in Spain
now is more difficult than when they were young, with a smaller percentage
(31%) thinking that it is easier. However, these opinions vary depending on the
personal circumstances of the citizens. Parents with children are more likely to have a positive
opinion of the education system, a trend that is also confirmed in Spain,
where 36% of people with children say that the quality of the education
system in Spain is good, compared to 26% who have a negative opinion. A
difference that is even more pronounced when asked about when they went to
school, where 30% of parents with children of school age currently say that the
quality has improved compared to 18% of those without children. Age is also an important
factor when forming an opinion on the state of public education, in this
sense, it is the younger generations that have a more positive view of the
system. Specifically, in Spain, 37% of Millennials believe that we have a
good system, 34% in the case of Generation Z, while Baby Boomers drop to 29%
and only 23% of Generation X share this opinion. However, in Spain, the global trend is not being followed,
which places the youngest among those who most believe that growing up in
their country today is easier than in times past . In fact,
40% of the Spanish Generation Z perceive that it is more difficult for them
than their predecessors, something that is shared by the rest of the
generations, although the Baby Boomers are very divided in this sense, with
41% sharing the view of the youngest, the same percentage that believes that
it is easier for them. An
outdated curriculum, overcrowding in classrooms and a lack of public funding
are the major challenges facing public education in Spain In order to better
understand citizens' assessment of the state of the education system, it is
necessary to know their level of satisfaction with certain aspects in more
detail. In
Spain, people are mostly satisfied with everything
related to the resources and
facilities available in educational institutions (56% versus
39% who are not). In addition, 53% agree that the Spanish education system contributes to reducing social
inequalities , making it the second European country that
most supports this, although there is a large part of the population (39%)
that does not agree that the system promotes equality. However, the major challenges facing the Spanish education
system , where citizen satisfaction is low, are related to
the revision of a curriculum that they believe to be obsolete (29%), followed
by classroom saturation (28%) and, with the same percentage, the lack of
public funding. 61% of the population
thinks that the curricula in Spain do not sufficiently encourage critical
thinking, do not develop creative skills (59%), nor do they promote curiosity
(58%) and the development of general skills (54%) such as communication,
organisation, etc. In addition, 1 in 2 Spaniards think that the current
education system gives too little space to the teaching of basic skills such
as reading, writing and arithmetic. Eradicating
violence in the classroom is a pending issue for the system One of the main debates
today is whether schools are safe spaces for students, although opinions are
very divided, with the majority believing that this is not the case. On a
global level, 48% on average do not perceive these schools as places free of
violence or harassment. A percentage that rises to 53% in Spain, compared to
42% who believe that they are. However, there is more consensus when it comes
to valuing the work of schools in promoting diversity and differences between
students, as 60% of the Spanish population believes this. It is also worth noting
that, in these two aspects, it is the youngest, that is, those who have had
contact with the most recent system, who tend to value the work of the
centres more positively. Thus, 50% of Generation Z in Spain believe that they
are places free of violence and harassment, and 67% that they are places
where diversity and differences between students are encouraged and welcomed. Drastic
drop in support for technology in schools Technological advances
have been fully present in educational centres for years, a fact that has
raised all kinds of opinions and criticisms. The Ipsos study shows that citizens are opting for a drastic limitation
on the presence of these advances in the daily life of students .
Thus, following the global trend, while in 2023, 43% of the Spanish
population believed that the impact of technology on education was more
positive than negative, this year, that percentage drops to 28%.
Consequently, the percentage among those who believe that its impact is more
negative than positive rises, standing this year at 31%, eleven points more
than last year. The same trend, even more
radicalized, is recorded regarding the prohibition
of the use of AI (including GPT Chat) in schools . While in
2023, 40% of Spaniards were against prohibiting its use, in this latest
edition of the study, 39% are in favor of doing so, completely turning the
balance. In terms of generations, Millennials are the most in favor of its
prohibition (45%), followed by Generation X (39%), Generation Z (38%), and
Baby Boomers (30%). As for the use of smartphones, another of the
major issues within the educational system, the majority of the Spanish population (63%) supports its ban in the
classroom , although there are large differences between
generations, with Boomers (70%) being the Spaniards who are most in favour of
this ban and Generation X (42%) the least. In relation to this, an even
higher percentage (73%) agrees that children under 14 should not have access
to social networks, both inside and outside of school. In this regard, all
generations agree, with the greatest support among Boomers (78%), followed by
Generation X (74%), Millennials (73%), and Generation Z (64%). 28 August, 2024
861-864-43-17/Polls Michel Barnier's Appointment To Matignon: 40% Of French
People Think It's A Good Thing For The Country
Emmanuel
Macron has just appointed Michel Barnier as Prime Minister, 40% of French
people believe that this appointment is a good thing for the
country, including 10% a very good thing and 30% a fairly good
thing . Conversely, 29% consider that it is a bad thing for the
country , including 15% a fairly bad thing and 14% a very
bad thing . 31% have no opinion on this question. Michel Barnier's
appointment to Matignon was welcomed by Ensemble voters in the first round of
the legislative elections (77% good
thing , 10% bad thing ,
13% no opinion ), by
LR/UDI/DVD voters (58%, 13%, 29%) and even more by LR supporters (83%), it
was also rather well received by RN voters (49%, 23%, 28%). On the contrary,
NFP voters are more skeptical (15%, 64%, 21%). A
small majority of French people believe that Michel Barnier will succeed in
forming "a unifying government" to get the 2025 Budget passed 52%
of French people think that Michel Barnier will be able to form "a
unifying government" and make compromises with the different political
parties to make decisions and pass laws, in particular the budget for the
coming year, including 7% certainly and
45% probably . Conversely,
47% believe that he will not be able to do so, including 36% who probably will not and 11% who certainly will not . Voters from Ensemble
(83% will succeed ),
LR (77%) and to a lesser extent RN (58%) are optimistic, those from NFP
(70% will not succeed )
are more skeptical. Opinion
divided on the ability of Michel Barnier's government to avoid a motion of
censure 50%
of French people think that Michel Barnier's government will not succeed in
avoiding a motion of censure, including 41% who probably will not and 9% who certainly will not . Conversely,
48% think that it will succeed ,
including 42% who probably will and
6% who certainly will . We find the same divide as
for the question on the Budget: voters of Ensemble (67% will manage to avoid a motion of censure ),
LR (62%) and to a lesser extent RN (54%) are optimistic, those of the NFP
(63% will not succeed )
are more pessimistic. Motion
of censure: the French favor the positioning of the RN (no censure a priori)
over that of the PS (immediate censure) Jordan Bardella stated
that the National Rally does not wish to censor Michel Barnier's government a
priori but will "judge his
general policy discourse on the facts". For its part, the
Socialist Party stated in a press release that "Michel Barnier has neither political nor
republican legitimacy. This extremely serious situation is not acceptable for
us democrats. This is why the socialist group will censure Michel Barnier's
government." 73%
of French people approve of
the National Rally's decision not to censure the government a priori,
including 24% wholly and
49% rather . On
the contrary, 59% disapprove of
the Socialist Party's choice to censure Michel Barnier's government without
delay, including 33% rather and
26% completely . Voters from Ensemble, LR
and RN overwhelmingly approve of
the RN's position (87%, 82% and 93% respectively) and disapprove of the PS's (85%, 79%
and 77%). Conversely, NFP voters support the PS's choice (80%) and rather
reject that of the RN (61%). Michel
Barnier's age is not a handicap for public opinion Michel Barnier, 73, has
just been appointed Prime Minister. He was first elected (general councillor
of Savoie) in 1973 and has been a minister several times. 30%
of French people believe that Michel Barnier's age is rather an asset, his experience will be useful in
this complex political context . Conversely, 29%
consider that his age is rather a
handicap, French politics needs new ideas and personalities .
A relative majority of French people believe that it is neither one nor the other, and that his age has
no impact . Young people tend to
consider their age as a handicap –
40% of 18-34 year-olds see it as a handicap, 24% as an asset , 36% as neither – while those aged 65
and over see it as an asset (41%)
or neither (42%). From a political point of
view:
Public
opinion believes that Michel Barnier must remain as autonomous as possible in
his decision-making, even if it means sometimes opposing Emmanuel Macron. Regarding
the attitude that this new Prime Minister should adopt towards Emmanuel
Macron:
This attitude is favoured
among all electorates (85% NFP, 81% RN, 61% LR), including Ensemble voters
(68%). For
3 out of 4 French people, Emmanuel Macron did not take into account the
results of the legislative elections By
appointing Michel Barnier as Prime Minister, 74% of French people believe
that Emmanuel Macron did not take into account the results of the legislative
elections, including 37% not at all and
37% not really .
Conversely, 26% consider that he took them into account, including 22% rather and 4% completely . An opinion shared by all
the main electorates in the first round of the 2024 Legislative elections:
NFP voters first and foremost (92% no )
ahead of LR voters (73%), RN (70%) and even Ensemble (57%). "The President has just decided to officially deny the
result of the legislative elections (...) the election was stolen from the
French people" : 55% of French people
agree with these comments made by Jean-Luc Mélenchon In
detail, 22% say they completely agree and
33% rather agree .
Conversely, 44% do not agree ,
including 19% who do not really agree and
25% who do not agree at all . NFP voters (87%) and to a
lesser extent abstainers (60%) approve of this statement by Jean-Luc
Mélenchon while Ensemble voters (71% disagree ),
LR (67%) and RN (58%) do not agree . This statement by Jean-Luc
Mélenchon about "an election
stolen from the French people" is divisive from a
generational point of view: those under 50 approve of it (72% of 18-24
year-olds agree and 64% of 25-49 year-olds), while those over 50 disapprove
(58% disagree ). 52%
of French people are in favor of a motion of impeachment against Emmanuel
Macron, up 3 points in one week Faced
with the political situation, some political parties want to vote on a motion
of impeachment against Emmanuel Macron. 52%
(+3 since August 28) of French people are in favor of a motion of impeachment, including 22%
(-1) very favorable and
30% (+4) rather favorable. Conversely,
48% (-2) are opposed ,
including 29% (+1) rather opposed and
19% (-3) very opposed . This question is, even
more than a week ago, very divisive from a political point of view:
Who
will join the government? A large majority of French people in favour of
figures from civil society, a small majority from the PS and LR, and 1 in 2
from the Ecologists Regarding
the formation of Michel Barnier's new government:
From a political point of
view:
For
the French, purchasing power must be the number one priority of Michel
Barnier's government, ahead of security, health and immigration. Since
January 2024, public debt has been increasing sharply In
the eyes of the French, purchasing
power must be the priority for action of Emmanuel Macron and
the government of Michel Barnier (52% of
citations in the top 3 priorities, stable since January 3, 2024) ahead
of security (33%,
+5), health (30%,
-5), immigration (30%,
+4) and the public debt which
is increasing very sharply (27%, +16). The
top 5 priorities are completed by education (21%,
=), pensions (19%,
+4), inequalities/social injustices (16%,
-1), employment (16%,
=) and the environment/ecology in
decline (13%, -6). The 7 other issues tested were cited by less than 10% of
French people. Thanks to a sharp increase
since January (+16), public debt has
never been so high in the priorities of the French. It is progressing in a
relatively homogeneous manner from a political point of view: voters of
Valérie Pécresse in the first round of the 2022 presidential election (37%,
+16), Emmanuel Macron (35%, +21), Marine Le Pen (23%, +17) and Jean-Luc
Mélenchon (20%, +16). Conversely, we are observing a more heterogeneous
dynamic from a generational and socio-professional point of view. While the
issue of public debt is increasing sharply among those aged 65 and over (44%,
+32), those aged 50-64 (30%, +20) and among executives and intermediate
professions (26%, +17), it is progressing more timidly or even declining
among those aged 18-24 (20%, +5), those aged 25-34 (8%, -5) and workers (15%,
-1). To date, the priorities
are from a political point of view (vote in the first round of the 2024
Legislative elections):
06 September, 2024 Source:
https://elabe.fr/nomination-michel-barnier/ NORTH AMERICA
861-864-43-18/Polls Why Many Parents And Teens Think It’s Harder Being A Teen
Today
Is it harder these days to
be a teen? Or do today’s teenagers have it easier than those of past
generations? Parents and teens most
often say it’s harder to
be a teen today. Though parents are far more likely to say this. Far fewer say it’s easier
now … … or that it’s about the
same. Teens, though, are more
likely than parents to say they are unsure. But why? We asked those
who say teen life has gotten harder or easier to explain in their own words
why they think so. Why parents
say it’s harder being a teen today
There are big debates
about how teenagers are faring these days. And technology’s impact is often
at the center of these conversations. Prominent figures,
including the U.S. Surgeon General, have been vocal about the harmful effects technology may be having on young
people. These concerns ring true
for the parents in our survey. A majority blame technology – and especially
social media – for making teen life more difficult. While some mention social
media in broad terms, others bring up specific experiences that teens may
have on these platforms, such as feeling pressure to act or look a certain
way or having negative interactions there. Parents also call out the
downsides of being constantly connected through social media. How
we did this “Social media is a scourge
for society, especially for teens. They can’t escape social pressures and are
constantly bombarded by images and content that makes them feel insecure and
less than perfect, which creates undue stress that they can’t escape.” “Kids are being told what
to think and how to feel based on social media.” “Teens are online and they
are going to encounter everything offered – positive and negative.
Unfortunately, the negative can do major damage, as in cyberbullying, for
example.” “Technology has changed
the way people communicate. I can see how kids feel very isolated.” Parents also raise a range
of reasons that do not specifically reference technology, with two that stand
out: more pressures placed on teens and the country or world being worse off
than in the past. Among parents who think it’s harder to be a teen today, 16%
say it’s because of the pressures and expectations young people face. These
include teens feeling like they have to look or act a certain way or perform
at a certain level. “The competition is more
fierce in sports and academics and the bar seems to be higher. Everything is
more over-the-top for social activities too. It’s not simple as it was.” A similar share (15%) says
teen life is harder because the country or world has changed in a bad way,
whether due to political issues or to shifts in morals and values. “Now it is more difficult
to instill values, principles, good customs and good behavior, since many bad
vices are seen in some schools and public places.” Other reasons that do not
mention technology are less common. For example, roughly one-in-ten of these
parents or fewer mention violence and drugs, bullying, and exposure to bad
influences. Why parents
say it’s easier being a teen today
Teens today have a
seemingly endless choice of technologies at their disposal, whether it
be smartphones, video games or generative AI. And while relatively few parents say
teen’s lives are easier today, those who do largely point to technology. Among parents who say it
is easier being a teen today, roughly six-in-ten mention technology as a
reason. Some reference a specific
type of technology, like the internet (14%). Another 8% cite smartphones, and
3% cite social media. “Although the internet can
be toxic, it also opens up so many avenues for connection, learning and
engagement.” “We didn’t have
smartphones when I was a teenager. Nowadays, teenagers have all the answers
in the palm of their hand.” A fair portion (47%)
mention technology broadly or name another specific type of technology. “Technology has improved
exponentially, giving access to the whole world at your fingertips.” Some other reasons that
emerge do not mention technology specifically. For instance, 18% of parents
who say it’s easier being a teen today think this is because there are fewer
pressures and expectations on teenagers than in the past. “Teens today have been
shown more leniency; they barely hold themselves responsible.” And one-in-ten say it’s
easier because teens have access to more resources and information. “When I was a teen,
I had to carry so many books and binders everywhere while my daughter can
just have her school laptop. She can complete research easily with internet
access on her school device.” Why teens
say it’s harder being a teen today
Most teens use social media, and some do so almost constantly. But
they also see these sites as a reason teens’ lives are harder today than 20
years ago. In addition, teens point
to the pressures and expectations that are placed on them. Among teens who say it’s
harder to be a teenager today than in the past, roughly four-in-ten mention
technology as a reason. This includes a quarter who specifically name social
media. Some mention these sites broadly; others link them to harmful experiences
like increased pressures to look a certain way or negative interactions with
others. “Social media tells kids
what to do and say. And if you aren’t up on it, you look like the fool and
become like an outcast from lots of people.” “Social media was not a
part of my parents’ teenage lives and I feel that they did not have to
‘curate’ themselves and be a certain way in order to fit [in] as it is
today.” Few specifically mention
the internet (6%) or smartphones (3%) as reasons. About one-in-ten (11%) cite
technology broadly or another type of technology. “For one thing, my phone
is a huge distraction. It takes up so much of my time just looking at stuff
that doesn’t even mean anything to me.” Teens name several reasons
that do not specifically mention technology – most prominently, the increased
pressures and expectations placed on them. Roughly three-in-ten of those who
say teen life is harder today (31%) say it’s because of these pressures and
expectations. “We have so much more
homework and pressure from other kids. We are always being looked at by
everyone. We can’t escape.” “Adults expect too much
from us. We need to get good grades, do extracurricular activities, have a
social life, and work part time – all at the same time.” Another 15% say it’s
harder because the world is worse off today, due to such things as political
issues, values being different or the country having declined in some way. “Teenagers are less able
to afford vehicles, rent, etc. and basic living necessities, and are
therefore not able to move out for years after they graduate high school and
even college.” Other reasons that don’t
mention technology – including violence and drugs, bullying, and mental
health problems – are named by 8% of these teens or fewer. Why teens
say it’s easier being a teen today
Teens also see ways that
technology makes life better, whether that’s helping them pursue hobbies, express their creativity or build skills. Overall, few think teens’ lives are
easier today than 20 years ago, but those who do largely say technology is a
reason. Six-in-ten teens who say
teen life is easier today reference technology in some way. This includes 14%
who mention the internet and 12% who mention phones. Just 3% name social
media. “[Teens 20 years ago]
didn’t have internet available anywhere and they also didn’t have smartphones
to be able to use whenever needed.” This also includes 46% who
reference technology in general or some other specific type of technology. “Tech has made it easier
to connect with friends.” These teens also name
reasons that don’t specifically mention technology, including 14% who say
life is easier because there are fewer pressures and expectations for people
their age. “Twenty years ago there
was probably more pressure to become an adult sooner and get things like a
job, a learner’s permit, etc.” And a same share says
having more resources available to them has made life easier. “Nowadays, we have help to
deal with your physical and mental well-being, and we have
specialists/therapists that we can talk to about our feelings and emotions.” Smaller shares say it’s
due to the country and world being better off today (4%) or people being
nicer to each other (3%). How
parents and teens compare
Parents and teens are
mostly in agreement on what makes growing up today harder than in the past. But the rate at which they
cite certain factors like social media or facing pressures differ. Among those who say being
a teen today is harder,
65% of parents believe it’s because of technology in some way. This drops to
39% among teens. This divide also stands
out when it comes to social media specifically (41% vs. 25%). Teens, on the other hand,
are more likely than parents to describe issues related to overachieving or
having to look a certain way. Among those who say teen life is harder today,
31% of teens cite pressures and expectations as a reason, compared with 16%
of parents. Still, there are areas in
which parents and teens are in sync. For example, similar shares cite the
country or world being worse today (15% each) and violence and drugs (8%
each) as reasons life today for teens is harder. And among those who say
being a teen today is easier,
roughly six-in-ten parents (59%) and teens (60%) mention technology in some
way. 27 August, 2024 861-864-43-19/Polls From ‘Traditional’ To ‘Open-Minded,’ How Americans Describe
Themselves
Public attitudes are
highly partisan on a wide array of topics. And partisanship appears in some of the
ways that Americans describe themselves, too, according to a May Pew Research
Center survey. How
we did this Republicans
more likely than Democrats to call themselves traditional, skeptical of
experts
Democrats
more likely than Republicans to call themselves open-minded Three-quarters of
Democrats say “open-minded” describes them extremely or very well, compared
with a smaller majority of Republicans (54%). In addition, more
Democrats (58%) than Republicans (40%) say the description “interested in
visiting other countries” fits them extremely or very well. Despite this
partisan difference, a Pew Research Center survey conducted in
spring 2023 found
that Democrats and Republicans were about equally likely to say they had
visited five or more foreign countries. Majorities
in both parties describe themselves as respectful of authority Roughly seven-in-ten
Republicans (71%) and a smaller majority of Democrats (61%) say the phrase
“respectful of authority” describes them extremely or very well. There also are wide age differences in these views: A
majority (69%) of U.S. adults ages 30 and older say respectful of authority
applies to them extremely or very well, compared with fewer than half (46%)
of those under 30. For the most part, neither
Republicans nor Democrats think of themselves as risk-takers. Only about
one-in-five in each party – 21% of Republicans, 20% of Democrats – say the
phrase “comfortable with taking risks” applies to them extremely or very
well. Who
views themselves as working class? A narrow majority of
Americans (54%) say that the phrase “working class” describes them extremely
or very well. Republicans are more
likely than Democrats to describe themselves this way. Roughly six-in-ten
Republicans (62%) say this, compared with 48% of Democrats. And Republicans
are more likely than Democrats to describe themselves this way regardless of
education and income level. Education
Overall, adults without
four-year college degrees are more likely than those with four-year degrees
to say that working class describes them extremely or very well (60% vs.
44%). This pattern holds within
each party: Republicans without four-year degrees are 17 percentage points
more likely than Republicans with degrees to say working class describes them
extremely or very well. Similarly, Democrats without degrees are 15 points more
likely than Democrats with degrees to say this. Yet Republicans with four-year college degrees
(51%) are about as likely as Democrats without degrees
(54%) to describe themselves as working class. Income Regardless of income
level, about six-in-ten Republicans say that working class describes them
extremely or very well. By contrast, there are substantial differences by
income level among Democrats. A 58% majority of
middle-income Democrats describe themselves as working class, while 48% of
lower-income Democrats describe themselves this way. Upper-income Democrats
are considerably less likely to describe themselves as working class: A third
say this phrase describes them extremely or very well. Wide
ideological divides in some self-descriptions Within both parties, there
are sizable ideological differences in how people describe themselves. This
is especially the case when it comes to being open-minded, respectful of
authority and skeptical of what experts say. Open-minded A large majority of
liberal Democrats (87%) say that open-minded describes them extremely or very
well. Smaller majorities of conservative and moderate Democrats (66%), as
well as moderate and liberal Republicans (62%), describe themselves this way.
About half of conservative Republicans (49%) say that open-minded describes
them well. While younger adults are
somewhat more likely than older adults to describe themselves as open-minded,
these differences largely disappear when accounting for party and ideology.
Respectful
of authority Conservative Republicans
are most likely to describe themselves as respectful of authority, with 74%
saying the phrase describes them at least very well. About two-thirds of
moderate and liberal Republicans (66%), as well as conservative and moderate
Democrats (66%), describe themselves this way. Roughly half of liberal
Democrats (53%) say the phrase “respectful of authority” describes them
extremely or very well. Liberal Democrats under
age 50, in particular, do not embrace the description “respectful of
authority.” About four-in-ten (42%) say that phrase describes them extremely
or very well, compared with majorities in other age and ideological
categories of Democrats. Age differences among
Republicans are substantially smaller. Skeptical
of experts Roughly half of
conservative Republicans (51%) say that the phrase “skeptical of what experts
say” describes them extremely or very well, including nearly identical shares
across age groups. Fewer than half of
moderate and liberal Republicans (31%), conservative and moderate Democrats
(20%), and liberal Democrats (14%) describe themselves this way. Partisan
gaps on politically oriented descriptions Partisan differences are
especially wide when it comes to self-descriptions that are associated with
people’s political values.
Sizable majorities of
Republicans (71%) say that the phrase “supportive of gun rights” describes
them extremely or very well. That compares with just 14% of Democrats. In contrast, Democrats are
far more likely than Republicans to say that being supportive of rights for
LGBT people describes them extremely or very well (65% vs. 22%). Among the public overall,
about a quarter of adults (24%) say “feminist” describes them extremely or
very well. This includes 40% of Democrats and 9% of Republicans, as well as
27% of women and 20% of men. 29 August, 2024
861-864-43-20/Polls The Link Between Local News Coverage And Americans’ Perceptions
Of Crime
For most of the past three
decades, Americans have said crime is rising in the United States, even
though official statistics show a dramatic decrease in crime during that span. In 23 of 27 Gallup surveys conducted since 1993, at least 60% of Americans have said there
is more crime in the U.S. than there was the year before. But this perception
is at odds with the data: Since 1993, the nation’s violent crime rate has
plunged by nearly half, while the property crime rate has fallen even more
steeply, according to the FBI. Put another way, Americans were about twice as
likely to be the victim of a violent crime in 1993 as in 2022. How
we did this There are many possible reasons why Americans might believe crime is
on the rise in the U.S., even when government statistics show the opposite.
But a new Pew Research Center survey examines one potential factor shaping
public perceptions: local news coverage about crime. The survey is from the
Pew-Knight Initiative, a research program funded jointly by The Pew
Charitable Trusts and the John S. and James L. Knight Foundation. Here are some of the key
findings from the survey:
Crime
gets a lot of attention in local news. An old
journalism cliché – “If it bleeds, it leads” – refers to the prominent placement of
(often sensationalized) news stories about crime. While the Center’s survey
doesn’t confirm the cliché, it shows that crime is among the most widely consumed
local news topics. Americans
who prefer to get local news from TV are especially likely to see stories
about crime regularly. Nearly half of these
Americans (46%) say they often get
local crime news from any source. No more than a third of Americans who
prefer other platforms for local news – such as print media or social media
sites – say the same. Violent
crime is much less common than property crime in the U.S., but Americans see
local news about both types of crime with nearly the same frequency. Around
a third of Americans (32%) report seeing news about violent crime on a daily
or weekly basis. A comparable share (37%) say they see news about property
crime with this same frequency. In 2022, the violent crime
rate was about one-fifth of the property crime rate, according to the FBI.
Violent crime includes offenses such as assault, robbery, rape and murder,
while property crime includes theft, auto theft and burglary.
There’s
a clear relationship between how much local crime news Americans consume and
how concerned they are about their safety. Among
Americans who get local crime news often,
33% are extremely or very concerned about local crime affecting them or their
family. That figure falls to 19% among those who get local news crime sometimes and 10% among those who
get it rarely or never. Of course, these findings
can’t tell us which direction this relationship travels: Consuming more crime
news may make Americans more worried about crime, but Americans who are more
worried about crime also may be more likely to consume crime news. Americans
aren’t especially satisfied with the quality of the local crime coverage they
see. Only a third of U.S. adults who consume
local crime news say they’re extremely or very satisfied with its quality –
similar to the shares who are highly satisfied with the news about several
other local topics. The largest share (48%) are somewhat satisfied, while 18%
are not too or not at all satisfied. Notably, Americans don’t
find it all that easy to get information that connects the dots about crime
in their area. For example, roughly three-quarters of U.S. adults (77%) are
at least somewhat interested in learning about broader patterns in local crime,
but only 23% of these Americans say it’s at least somewhat easy to stay
informed on this topic. The numbers are similar when it comes to what local
officials are doing to address crime and the underlying causes of local
crime.
Local
media outlets aren’t the only place where Americans get news about local crime. In
fact, Americans are just as likely to get information about local crime from
their friends, family and neighbors (71% do so often or sometimes) as they
are to get this kind of information from local news outlets (70% do so often
or sometimes). When it comes to other sources, around half (53%) often or
sometimes get crime news from social media, while smaller shares get this
type of information from local law enforcement (41%), locally focused apps
like Nextdoor or Ring (36%), or local politicians (23%). In other words, public
perceptions about crime may be shaped by a broad range of information sources
– not just local news outlets. 29 August, 2024
861-864-43-21/Polls How U.S. Public Opinion Has Changed In 20 Years Of Our
Surveys
When The Pew Charitable
Trusts created Pew Research Center in 2004, we were surveying Americans using the
established industry method at the time: calling people on their landline
phones and hoping they’d answer. As the Center marks its 20th anniversary
this year, survey methods have become more diverse, and we now conduct most of our interviews online. Public opinion itself has
also changed in major ways over the last 20 years, just as the country and
world have. In this data essay, we’ll take a closer look at how Americans’
views and experiences have evolved on topics ranging from technology and
politics to religion and social issues. How
we did this The
rise of the internet, smartphones and social media The past two decades have witnessed the emergence of
all sorts of technologies that let people interact with the world in new
ways. For instance, 63% of U.S. adults used
the internet in 2004, and 65% owned
a cellphone (we weren’t yet asking about
smartphones). Today, 95% of U.S. adults browse the internet, and 90% own a
smartphone, according to our surveys. Social media was just
taking off in 2004, the year Mark Zuckerberg launched “The Facebook” (as it
was known then) from his Harvard dorm room. Since then, Americans have widely adopted social media. These platforms have also become a key source of news for the U.S. public, even as concerns about misinformation and national security have grown. Meanwhile, many
traditional news organizations have struggled. In 2004, daily weekday newspaper circulation in the U.S. totaled around 55
million. By 2022, that had fallen to just under 21 million. Newspapers’
advertising dollars and employee counts have also decreased. In this more fragmented
news environment, Americans – particularly Republicans – have become less trusting of the information that comes from
news organizations. On the whole, however, more people still say they trust
information from news organizations than from social media. Selfies and social media
at a contemporary art show in Miami Beach, Florida, in 2018. (Jeffrey
Greenberg/Education Images/Universal Images Group via Getty Images) Other
emerging technologies Some technological changes
over the past 20 years haven’t been as widely adopted, and a few still sound
like science fiction. For example, Elon Musk announced this year that his
company Neuralink had implanted a computer chip in a living person’s
brain. The chip is intended to allow people to use phones or computers simply
by thinking about
what they want to do on the devices – an idea that Americans are largely hesitant about. Other innovations we’ve
surveyed about that might have seemed far-fetched back in 2004 include driverless passenger vehicles, space tourism, AI chatbots like ChatGPT, and gene editing to reduce a baby’s risk of developing
serious health conditions. Our research suggests that Americans are still
getting introduced to and forming opinions of these technologies, so we’ll
likely see public attitudes evolve on these and other innovations over the
next 20 years. Declining
trust in national institutions Around the Center’s
founding in 2004, 36% of Americans said they trusted the federal government to do what is right just about always
or most of the time. By April 2024, just 22% said the same. This is part of a
longer-term decline in trust. In 1964, 77% of Americans trusted the federal
government to do the right thing all or most of the time. There have been a
few periods of increased trust
in the decades since, including shortly after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.
But since 2008, fewer than 30% of Americans have said they trust the
government to do the right thing all or most of the time. Views of Congress and the
Supreme Court have also become more negative over the past 20 years. In 2006,
53% of Americans had a favorable view of Congress, but after some ups and downs, that share
fell to 26% in 2023. And the share of adults who view the nation’s highest court favorably is near its lowest mark in almost 40
years of data. (Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty
Images) The years during and after
the coronavirus pandemic have also seen a more general
distrust of people who were once considered experts. Many Americans were
dissatisfied with the communication they received about the pandemic from public health
officials, and close to half thought officials were unprepared for the
initial coronavirus outbreak in the United States. Most Americans still trust scientists to act in the public’s best interest,
but fewer say this now than in 2020, especially among Republicans. More
diversity in the U.S. and its government The U.S. has become much
more diverse over the past 20 years on several measures, including immigrant
status. Today, immigrants account for 13.8% of the nation’s population – near the record high from 1890 –
and they have come from just about every country in the world. Racial and ethnic
diversity has also increased. Between 2004 and 2022, the U.S. population grew
by 14%, according to the Census Bureau. But the Asian, Hispanic and Black
populations all grew at faster rates – 74%, 55% and 22%, respectively – while
the White population remained stable. As a result, the share of Americans who
are White fell from 68% in 2004 to 59% in 2022.1 Candidates take the oath
to become U.S. citizens during a naturalization ceremony at the Department of
Justice in Washington, D.C., in 2016. (Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images) As the country has become
more diverse, so have its voters – and its leaders. The 118th Congress is the most racially and ethnically
diverse in history, and the number of women in Congress is at an all-time
high. And majorities of President Joe Biden’s judicial appointments have been women and racial or ethnic
minorities, a first for any president. Still, there’s some
skepticism that women will ever achieve parity with men in political
leadership. In 2023, 52% of Americans said it is only a matter of time before
there are as many women in
political office as men,
while 46% said men will continue to hold more high political offices. Growing
dissatisfaction with the Democratic and Republican parties
In the early 2000s, very
few Americans had unfavorable views of both the
Democratic and Republican parties. But over the next two decades, the
share saying they dislike both major parties increased, reaching 28% in 2023. This is just one element
of Americans’ broad dissatisfaction with politics. As trust in political institutions
declines, few Americans now think the political system is working even
somewhat well. Majorities say that most elected officials don’t care what people like them think and that ordinary people have too
little influence on Congress’ decision-making. And most see little or no common ground between Republicans and Democrats on
the economy, the environment, the budget deficit, immigration, gun policy or
abortion. As a result, many
Americans say they regularly feel angry or exhausted when they think about U.S. politics,
and very few feel hopeful and excited. When asked for the one word or phrase
they’d use to describe politics today, some of the most common answers are
“divisive,” “corrupt” and “messy.” China’s
emergence as a perceived threat – and even an enemy
Americans’ views of China
have become increasingly negative over the past two decades. In 2005, the
first year we asked this question, 35% of U.S. adults had an unfavorable view
of China. Today, about eight-in-ten view China unfavorably, and about four-in-ten say it is an enemy of the U.S., as opposed to a competitor or a partner. In an open-ended survey
question in 2023, half of Americans named China as the country that poses the greatest threat to the U.S. – about three times the
share who named Russia, the second-most common answer. In contrast, China was
only the third-most popular answer in 2007, behind Iran and Iraq. The
rise of the religiously unaffiliated Many Americans describe
themselves as atheist, agnostic or “nothing in particular.” At the Center, we
refer to this group as religious “nones.” The share of Americans who
identify as religious nones is significantly higher than it was when we began
asking this question about religious identity in 2007. In recent years, the
share of religious nones has mostly been stable, around 28%. But it’s too
early to tell whether this population is leveling off or will continue to grow. Still, religious nones are
currently one of the largest religious groups in the United States. They trail
Protestants, who make up 41% of U.S. adults, but make up a larger share of
the population than Catholics (20%) and all other faiths (8%). While they don’t identify
with any organized religion, many religious nones do hold some religious or spiritual beliefs. For example, most say there is some
higher power or spiritual force in the universe, though just 13% say they
believe in “God as described in the Bible.” A
reversal in public opinion about same-sex marriage Eileen Counihan and her
partner, Erin Golden, celebrate after getting their marriage license in
Provincetown, Massachusetts, in May 2004. (Wendy Maeda/The Boston Globe via
Getty Images) The first same-sex
marriages in the U.S. took place in 2004 in Massachusetts – to the
consternation of both presidential candidates at the time, Republican George
W. Bush and Democrat John Kerry. Their opinions reflected those of the
general public: That year, 31% of Americans supported same-sex
marriage, while 60%
opposed it. By 2023, attitudes on
same-sex marriage had effectively flipped: 63% of Americans supported it and 34% opposed it. The tide began to turn
around 2010, when similar shares expressed support and opposition for
same-sex marriage. Soon, larger shares began to favor than oppose it. And by
2015, the U.S. Supreme Court issued its landmark Obergefell v. Hodges
ruling, which established that same-sex couples have a constitutional right
to marry. Since the world’s first
same-sex marriages were legally recognized in the Netherlands in 2001, many
places globally have followed a similar path as the U.S. International views of same-sex marriage vary, but in general, there has been
increased support over the past decade. Same-sex marriage is currently legal
in more than 30 places worldwide, mostly in Europe and the Americas. Another
reversal: Marijuana legalization
Support for legalizing marijuana has also been on the rise in the U.S.
over the past two decades. Around the time the Center was established in
2004, just a third of U.S. adults said marijuana should be legalized, but
that rose to 70% by 2023. The change in attitudes is
even starker when looking at the longer term. In 1969, just 12% of Americans
supported legalizing marijuana. It wasn’t until 1996 that any state legalized
the drug for medical purposes, and it took until 2012 for states to begin
legalizing it for recreational purposes. Today, 38 states and the
District of Columbia have legalized marijuana for medical and/or recreational use. Increasingly
polarized views on climate change, guns, abortion On several issues, the
pattern is not just that Americans’ views have changed markedly over the past
two decades. It’s that Democrats and Republicans have grown further apart in
their views, eroding areas of common ground between the parties. (In this essay,
as in most Center publications, “Democrats” and “Republicans” refer to people
who identify with or lean
toward that party.) Consider climate change.
In 2009, Democrats were already 36 percentage points more likely than
Republicans to say climate change is a major threat to the U.S. (61% vs. 25%). But by
2022, that partisan gap had grown to 55 points: 78% of Democrats, but just
23% of Republicans, considered climate change a major threat. Globally, people in many
advanced economies tend to have similar levels of concern to U.S. Democrats.
A median of 75% of adults across 19 countries we surveyed in 2022 said climate change is a major threat
to their country. The topic of guns
has become increasingly partisan, too. In 2003, 56% of Republicans and 29%
of Democrats said it was more important to protect Americans’ right to own
guns than to control gun ownership, a 27-point gap. But by 2022, that gap had
swelled to 63 points (81% vs. 18%). These changes coincided
with major court rulings, including the Supreme Court’s 2008 decision in
District of Columbia v. Heller, which held that the Second Amendment
guarantees an individual’s right to have a gun.
Abortion is another
subject where partisan divisions have grown. In 2007, 63% of Democrats said abortion should be legal in all or most cases. That share has
grown to 85% today, following the Supreme Court’s 2022 decision to overturn
Roe v. Wade, which had enshrined the constitutional right to abortion in
1973. By comparison, there has
been relatively little change in opinion among Republicans: About four-in-ten
continue to say abortion should be legal in all or most cases. As a result,
the partisan gap has soared from 24 points in 2007 to 44 points today. Global views vary,
but support for legal abortion has generally
grown over the past
decade in Europe, Latin America and India. A median of 66% of adults across
27 places we surveyed now say abortion should be legal in all or most cases.
In most places where we can measure political ideology on a left-right scale,
people on the left are more likely than those on the right to support legal
abortion. But the U.S. has by far the largest gap between the two sides. 13 September, 2024 Source:
https://www.pewresearch.org/2024/09/13/how-us-public-opinion-has-changed-in-20-years-of-our-surveys/
861-864-43-22/Polls Why Americans Are Pleasantly Surprised In Retirement
Three in four retired
Americans say they have enough money to live comfortably, consistent with
retiree perceptions across the 23 years Gallup has tracked views on
retirement in its Economic and Personal Finance surveys conducted each April. This generally positive
picture of retirement contrasts with the more negative expectations among
those who have yet to retire. Just about half of nonretirees, 45% this year,
say they will have enough money to live comfortably when they retire, much
lower than the experience reported by retirees themselves. This retirement reality versus expectations gap has
persisted since Gallup began systematically collecting this information in
2002, although there has been some variation over the decades in nonretirees’
expectations. As Gallup noted in last year’s report, “Nonretirees’ outlook has been
consistently lower and subject to swings based on the national economic
climate.”
This disparity in views of
retirement is underscored by an analysis of the views of retirees aged 65-80
today compared with the expectations of this same cohort 20 years ago. Just
over half of those who were 45-60 in 2002-2004 projected that they would have
enough money to live comfortably when they retired. But 79% of this same
cohort of Americans who are retired 20 years later in fact end up saying they
have enough money to live comfortably. For this age cohort of
Americans, the reality has turned out to be significantly more positive than
they anticipated two decades ago.
A
Big Factor in Lowered Expectations Is Doubts About Social Security The disconnect between the
retirement expectations of nonretirees and the more positive outcomes among
those who are now retired has several possible explanations. Retirees may
take unanticipated advantage of the opportunities to downsize and move to cheaper
areas of the country, and they may have unanticipated lower daily expenses in
general without work or childcare responsibilities. Medicare may help cover
healthcare costs in ways not anticipated, even if they have greater
healthcare needs in retirement than they did before. And, importantly, the
disconnect is explained by the unanticipated value of Social Security in
retirement.
In contrast to the 58% of
retirees for whom Social Security is a major source of income, barely a third
(35%) of nonretirees, on average, say they expect Social Security to be a major source of
retirement income. This puts Social Security significantly behind the 50% of
nonretirees who expect that 401(k) and retirement accounts will be a major
income source when they retire -- nonretired Americans’ No. 1 projected
retirement source. But in an oppositive pattern to the increased importance
of Social Security in reality, investments are much less important in retired reality
than is anticipated by Americans before they retire. Additionally,
Among nonretirees, there
has been a modest uptick in projections about the importance of Social
Security as a major source of retirement income compared with 20 years ago --
from less than 30% to the mid-30% range. But the significant perceptions versus reality gap has
persisted as far back as Gallup has data. A consistently higher percentage of
retirees have rated Social Security as a major source of their income than is
the projection among nonretirees in every year since 2002.
The yawning gap between
expectations about Social Security and reality is made evident by an analysis
of shifts in the attitudes of those who were aged 45-60 two decades ago. Only
35% of this group of nonretirees in 2002-2004 projected Social Security to be
a major source when they retired. Twenty years later, a significantly higher
61% of retirees in the same cohort (now 65-80 years old) report that in fact
Social Security has turned
out to be a major source of income.
Other Gallup research
underscores the lack of confidence in the long-term viability of Social
Security among nonretirees.
Financial
Comfort Based on Sources of Retirement Income Despite Social Security’s
importance, the majority of retirees report having major sources of income in
addition to (or, for some, in lieu of) Social Security. Similarly, and not
unexpectedly, the significant majority of nonretired Americans expect they will
have sources of income in lieu of or in addition to Social Security. To explore these
relationships further, retirees and nonretirees interviewed over the past six
years were categorized into segments based on their reports about projected
or actual income sources -- 1) those for whom Social Security is or is
projected to be their only major source of income; 2) those who name Social
Security and one other major income source; 3) those who name one or two
major income sources but not Social Security; 4) those who name three or more
major income sources (which may or may not include Social Security); and 5)
those who name no major income sources. A relatively small 23% of
retirees say their only major income source in retirement is Social Security.
Sixty percent of this group say they have enough money to be comfortable,
leaving about four in 10 retirees relying only on Social Security who are not
financially comfortable. This is the lowest “comfortable” reading across any
of the retiree segments. In short, while six in 10
retirees are financially comfortable with Social Security as their only major
income source, there are many others in this situation who are struggling. The 60% of retirees living
comfortably with Social Security as their only major source of income dwarfs
the 21% of nonretirees who expect to be financially comfortable in retirement
if their only projected major income source is Social Security.
By contrast, 78% of
retirees who report having at least one major income source in addition to Social Security are
financially comfortable. Again, this far exceeds the 34% of nonretirees who
expect to have Social Security and at least one other source of income in
retirement and expect to be living comfortably. Two other groups of
retirees, constituting about half of all retirees, are even more comfortable:
Finally, 70% of retirees
who do not list any of the 10 sources tested as major income sources in their
retirement (about 11% of all retirees) are financially comfortable. It’s
probable that these retirees have a combination of sources that, while viewed
as “minor sources,” together are still enough to provide financial stability. In all instances,
nonretirees who expect to have each of the varying sets of income sources in
retirement discussed above are less likely to project financial comfort than
the actual financial comfort of retirees who in reality end up with each of
these income sources. What do these data tell
us? Social Security is clearly important for retirees, particularly those for
whom Social Security is their only major income source. For most of these
retirees, Social Security is enough for them to define themselves as
“financially comfortable.” But four in 10 of this group say they are not financially comfortable. That
finding, plus the fact that retirees who have income sources other than
Social Security are across the board clearly more financially comfortable
than those who rely only on Social Security, indicates that Social Security
can be classified as a fundamental but -- for many -- not sufficient resource
in retirement. The data also confirm that
regardless of projected income sources, many fewer nonretirees across all
scenarios expect to be financially comfortable in retirement than is the case
based on reports from actual retirees. Bottom
Line Gallup’s continuing
measures of the retirement projections of nonretirees and the reality as
reported by actual retirees provide valuable insights -- both for Americans
who are planning their retirement and for policymakers who continue to
confront the future of Social Security. The finding that the
majority of nonretirees are not counting on Social Security as a major income
source can in some ways be construed as a positive -- serving as motivation
for younger workers to develop other sources of retirement income while they
can. Running scared about retirement, in other words, could spur people to
take action while they are still in the earning class -- actions that could
result in a more comfortable retirement than they currently envision. Of course, for many
younger Americans, building investment accounts is easier said than done.
Those living paycheck to paycheck do not have a great deal of cash to put
into 401(k)/IRA accounts. This is borne out by statistics showing that most
Americans -- even those near retirement age -- have relatively small 401(k)
balances. But employers, cognizant of these findings, could for their part do
more to bolster their contributions to retirement plans as part of employee
benefit packages. And there could be increased efforts to push employees
toward default or mandatory contributions to retirement plans. Another significant source
of income for retirees is work-related pension funds, but fewer and fewer
companies today offer pensions, making this something workers can’t do much
about. The value of jobs that continue to offer pensions may be reflected in reports
that young people today view government jobs (many of which offer pensions)
more positively than they have in the past. For government, the major
recommendation that arises from these data is a continuing focus on
maintaining Social Security’s viability. Although Social Security is clearly
not a total solution to financial security in retirement, retirees have
continually over the past 23 years listed it as their most important source
of retirement income -- clearly a key component of many retirees’ financial
comfort in their post-working years. Additionally, Medicare is
almost certainly an important part of retirees’ financial comfort in
retirement. Gallup data show that Americans 65 and older are much more
satisfied than those who are younger with the total cost they pay for
healthcare; are much less likely to have put off health treatment due to
cost; and are more positive about their healthcare coverage and the quality
of healthcare they receive. These findings would seem to justify efforts by
the federal government to place a high priority on maintaining Medicare in
the years to come. In terms of retirement
income sources, the government can profitably, the data suggest, engage in a
two-pronged strategy: maintain Social Security at all costs and continue
practical and motivational efforts to encourage nonretirees to build
retirement accounts. 22 August, 2024 Source:
https://news.gallup.com/poll/648773/why-americans-pleasantly-surprised-retirement.aspx
861-864-43-23/Polls Democrats Drive Surge In Election Enthusiasm
The Aug. 1-20 survey was
conducted mostly before the Aug. 19-22 Democratic National Convention but
after President Joe Biden abandoned his reelection bid on July 21. Party
leaders quickly coalesced around Vice President Kamala Harris as the
Democratic nominee in the days after Biden's announcement. Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents are
largely driving the surge in enthusiasm nationally. In March, 55% of
Democrats and Democratic leaners said they were more enthusiastic than usual
about voting; now, 78% are. Republicans and Republican leaners, who
held a slight edge in enthusiasm in March, now trail Democrats by a
significant margin, with their current 64% enthusiasm score up slightly from
59% in the spring.
As a result of these
changes, election enthusiasm has shifted from being at an average level in March to the highest Gallup has measured
during a presidential election campaign. Gallup measured similarly high
enthusiasm -- 67% -- in September 2020, October 2008 and August 2004 surveys.
Democrats’ current level
of enthusiasm is one percentage point shy of the group’s high in Gallup’s
trend since 2000. That was the 79% measured in February 2008, when Barack
Obama and Hillary Clinton were engaged in a spirited battle for the party’s
presidential nomination. Enthusiasm subsided later that year, but by the end
of the campaign, consistently more than seven in 10 said they were more
enthusiastic than usual about voting. Democratic enthusiasm was also elevated
during the 2004 and 2020 presidential campaigns. Republican enthusiasm
about the 2024 election is approaching the record 70% measured in August
2020, when Donald Trump was seeking a second term as president. Republicans
had similarly high levels of enthusiasm in the latter stages of the 2004 and
2012 elections.
Thought
Given to the Election at Record High for August The Aug. 1-20 poll also
finds 79% of Americans saying they have given “quite a lot” of thought to the
election, surpassing the previous August high of 74% in 2008. Given that more Americans
typically pay attention to the election closer to Election Day than do in
August, 2024 is poised to establish a new high in election thought at the
conclusion of the campaign. Currently, the 84% from 2004 is the highest
Gallup has measured immediately before Election Day.
Americans have been
closely tuned in to the election all year, with 77% in February and 71% in
April saying they had given it considerable thought. Early this year,
Republicans were more likely than Democrats and independents to be thinking
about the election, perhaps because of the Republican presidential primaries.
Now, Democrats and Republicans show similar levels of attention, with
independents still trailing by about 20 percentage points.
Most
Voters Have Made Up Their Minds With voters highly engaged
in the election campaign, it is not surprising that most have already made
their choice about whom they will be voting for. Seventy-nine percent of U.S.
adults, including 83% of those registered to vote, report they have made up
their mind, leaving about one in five U.S. adults (19%) -- and one in six
registered voters (16%) -- saying they are still deciding. Democratic adults (93%)
are slightly more likely than Republican adults (86%) to say they have made
up their mind. About six in 10 political independents report having decided
on a candidate, while 35% have not. Americans
Generally Positive About the Campaign Process Americans mostly answer
positively when asked about six different ways the campaign could reflect a
healthy democracy. Specifically, 79% think the presidential campaign has
identified at least one good candidate; 71% say it has fostered discussion of
important issues; 81% believe they know where the candidates stand on those
issues; and 72% say the candidates have offered solutions to the country's
problems. In contrast to these
generally positive reviews, more Americans disagree than agree that the way
the campaign is being conducted makes them think the process is working as it
should. On a more personal level,
88% of U.S. adults say it makes a real difference to them who is elected
president.
For the campaign aspects
that generate positive reviews, majorities of both Republicans and Democrats
agree that the campaign is going well in these respects, in some cases
because they are probably answering in terms of their preferred candidate. By
contrast, their views of how the campaign is being conducted may tap more
into perceptions of the opposing candidate. At a time when the Trump
campaign is calling foul on the Democrats’ replacement of Biden as the
Democratic nominee after the primaries had taken place, 70% of Democrats
versus 26% of Republicans say the conduct of the campaign makes them feel the
process is working this year. Independents’ views are closer to those of
Republicans than Democrats. Republicans and Democrats
hold similarly positive views on the other election dynamics rated, while
independents tend to be less positive than the two major-party groups about
the campaign.
Bottom
Line Biden’s decision to stand
down as the Democratic nominee amid pressure from high-ranking Democrats
preceded a surge in election enthusiasm among the party faithful while raising
doubts among Republicans and independents about the process. Still, both
party groups are highly engaged in the election, although Democrats' level of
engagement now exceeds that of Republicans. As a result of elevated election
thought and enthusiasm in both parties, voter participation could surpass
what it was in 2020, when two-thirds of eligible U.S. adults cast ballots,
the highest in over 100 years. 29 August, 2024 Source:
https://news.gallup.com/poll/649397/democrats-drive-surge-election-enthusiasm.aspx
861-864-43-24/Polls Oh, The Humanities: Can You Guess The Most-Regretted
College Majors
If you studied humanities,
life sciences or law in college, there’s a better-than-40% chance you regret
the choice now. That’s the takeaway from a
report by the Federal Reserve, whose researchers perennially ask college
graduates whether they would choose a different field of study if they were
granted a do-over. The Fed reports levels of
college satisfaction across broad academic categories in a report
titled Economic Well-Being
of U.S. Households in 2023,
published earlier this year. Researchers asked college completers if they would
choose a different field now. Of course, regretting your
major is not the same as regretting college. The vast majority of college
graduates with bachelor's degrees -- more than 80% -- say their education
helped prepare them for a well-paying job, according to a May report from Pew Research. "There are a lot of
different ways that people will get something out of their college
education," said Hironao Okahana, assistant vice president and executive
director of the Education Futures Lab at the American Council on Education,
an umbrella group for academia. "We are preparing people who can be
flexible and agile in a changing workforce and changing economy." The Federal Reserve report
draws from the 2023 Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking, which
reached more than 11,000 adults. It provides a snapshot of America’s
investment in higher education, and the perceived return on that investment. Seventy percent of
Americans enroll in education beyond high school, the report says, citing
federal data. But only 37% attain a bachelor’s degree or more. More
than half of college attenders say it was worth the cost More than half of adults
who attend college feel the financial benefits exceed the costs, the Fed
reports. The level of satisfaction generally rises with degree level, and
with age. Among adults ages 30-44 –
millennials, essentially – who completed “some college” or a technical
degree, only 20% feel the benefits outweigh the costs. The satisfaction
quotient rises to 55% for millennials with bachelor’s degrees, and to 66% for
those with graduate or professional degrees. By contrast, a healthy
majority of Americans ages 60 and over feel their college education was worth
the investment: 75% of bachelor’s recipients, and 86% of those with advanced
degrees. A year of college in the
U.S. costs $38,270 a year, on average, according to the Education
Data Initiative, a research
nonprofit that collects education statistics. College costs have doubled
since 2000. Get
the Daily Briefing newsletter in your inbox. The day's top stories,
from sports to movies to politics to world events. Delivery: Daily Your Email "These folks are
looking back on their majors and making a kind of financial calculus, and
asking themselves, 'Is this worth what I spent on it?' And for a lot of them,
the answer is no," said Bradley Jackson,
vice president of policy at the American Council of Trustees and Alumni, a
right-leaning nonprofit. Americans owe nearly $1.8 trillion in student loan debt, more than
$40,000 per borrower, according to estimates from the education data
nonprofit. Many
least-regretted majors offer good pay Not surprisingly, many of
the least-regretted college majors fall in fields that offer strong salaries. Electrical engineers earn an average annual wage of
$117,680, according to federal data. Software developers pull down $138,110 a year. Nurse
practitioners earn $128,490. Money is great, but
popular majors can also segue into fulfilling careers, academic leaders say. "Health is
everything," said Dr. Michelle Lampl, director of the Center for the Study of
Human Health at Emory University, reflecting on the large share of satisfied
customers in that field. "Everyone's life
touches on and embodies health," Lampl said. "It is personal,
social and global." Internal surveys at the
Atlanta university show 93% of recent graduates are satisfied with their
bachelor's degrees in human health. Salaries can be harder to
track at the other end of the regretted-majors spectrum, because degrees in
the liberal arts don’t necessarily correlate to specific jobs. Art and design workers earn $65,190, on average. Kindergarten teachers collect $67,790. Humanities degrees
are in sharp decline. The annual tally of bachelor’s degrees in
humanities dropped from a peak of 236,826 in 2012 to 179,272 in 2022,
according to the American Academy of Arts & Sciences. Education degrees have
been dwindling for decades, according to a 2022 Pew Research report. “I would give anything to
go tell my college self, DO NOT get a master’s degree in teaching,” one
Reddit user commented in a 2022 thread about most- and
least-regretted degrees. “You’ll be miserable, abused, in debt & in
poverty.” Degrees
in STEM fields have been rising steadily Meanwhile, the number of
degrees granted in science, technology, engineering and math has been rising steadily, federal data show. Former President Barack
Obama launched a national campaign in 2009 to boost science and math study
during his administration, declaring STEM a national priority. “We’re seeing a very
enthusiastic group of young students coming into our engineering programs
across the country,” said Jerome Lynch, dean of the Pratt School of Engineering
at Duke University. “There’s a lot of business for our graduates. There’s a
lot of opportunity out there.” Federal
survey offers snapshots in time The Federal Reserve survey
began in 2013. A glimpse at past surveys suggests that some fields have risen
and fallen in perceived return on investment. In the 2013 survey, more than half of graduates in
engineering, health and life sciences said the benefits of the degree
outweighed the costs. The least popular majors, in terms of cost-benefit
analysis, were social and behavioral sciences, humanities – and computer
science. (The survey questions were
worded differently then, so a direct comparison to 2023 data isn’t possible.) The federal report focuses
on broad divisions of academia. Other reports have drilled down on the
popularity of more specific fields of study. Most
regretted major: Journalism The most popular college
major in America is business, according to federal data, with about 375,000
bachelor's degrees conferred in 2022, the most recent year available. Health
professions rank second, with 264,000 degrees. Rounding out the top five: Social
sciences and history, biological and biomedical sciences, and psychology.
(Engineering and computer science rank sixth and seventh.) There have also been
occasional polls of most- and least-loved majors. In one 2022 survey of 1,500
job candidates, the employment site ZipRecruiter enumerated the most-regretted majors:
And here are the
least-regretted majors:
29 August, 2024 Source: https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2024/08/29/most-regretted-college-majors/74908310007/
861-864-43-25/Polls Majority (53%) Of Canada’s Post-Secondary Students Claim
Financial Independence, Yet Over Three-Fifths (62%) Concede They Won’t Make
It Through The School Year Without Financial Help From The Bank Of Mom And
Dad
A recent Ipsos poll conducted on behalf of Simplii
Financial uncovers some challenges and inconsistencies with respect to
perceptions of financial independence among Canada’s post-secondary students.
For starters, a majority (53%) of post-secondary students claim to have
achieved financial independence yet three-fifths (62%) concede they won’t be
able to make it through the upcoming school year without financial help from
their parents or other family members and almost half (45%) admit the
earnings from their summer employment won’t cover the school year without any
shortfalls. Additionally, just one in ten (10%)
assign themselves an “A” grade on financial independence, though even fewer
(6%) think they are failing (“F”) on this metric. At one in three (32%) the
highest proportion are assigning themselves a “C” grade on financial
independence. 27 August, 2024 AUSTRALIA
861-864-43-26/Polls The Share Of Mortgage Holders ‘At Risk’ Of ‘Mortgage
Stress’ Fell In July After The Stage 3 Tax Cuts
New
research from Roy Morgan shows there are now 1,604,000 mortgage holders
(29.8%) ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in the three months to July 2024. This
represents a decrease of 0.5% points on the June figures after the
introduction of the Stage 3 tax cuts in July increased household income for
millions of Australians – including many mortgage holders. The record high of 35.6% of mortgage holders in
mortgage stress was reached in mid-2008. 797,000 more ‘At Risk’ of
mortgage stress more than two years after interest rate increases began The number of Australians
‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress has increased by 797,000 since May 2022 when the
RBA began a cycle of interest rate increases. Official interest rates are now
at 4.35%, the highest interest rates have been since December 2011, over a
decade ago. The number of mortgage
holders considered ‘Extremely At Risk’, is now numbered at 982,000 (18.9% of
mortgage holders) which is significantly above the long-term average over the
last 10 years of 14.5%. Mortgage
Stress – % of Owner-Occupied Mortgage-Holders
Source:
Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia), average interviews per 3 month period
April 2007 – July 2024, n=2,804. Mortgages
‘At Risk’ set to fall in August after the income tax cuts, but will increase
again in September and October if the RBA raises interest rates by +0.25% in
September to 4.6% Roy Morgan has modelled
the impact of a potential RBA interest rate increase in September 2024 of
+0.25% to 4.6%. Roy Morgan’s mortgage stress forecasts for August, September
and October also take into account the Stage 3 income tax cuts which began in
early July and have boosted the take home incomes of many Australians over
the last few weeks. In July, 29.8% of mortgage
holders, 1,604,000, were considered ‘At Risk’ and this figure is forecast to
fall in August to 1,590,000 (29.5% of mortgage holders) after the impact of
the Stage 3 tax cuts. In September, the number
of mortgage holders considered ‘At Risk’ is forecast to fall 4,000 from
currently to 1,600,000 (29.7%, down 0.1% points) of mortgage holders even if
the RBA raises interest rates in September. Looking forward into
October, the RBA’s interest rate increase in late September will lead to an
increase in the number of mortgage holders considered ‘At Risk’ from
1,600,000 in September, up 19,000 to 1,619,000 (30.1% of mortgage holders) in
October; and up 15,000 from current figures. Mortgage
Risk projected forward following income tax cuts in July and a forecast
interest rate increases of +0.25% to 4.60% in September 2024
Source:
Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia), May – July 2024, n=3,930. How
are mortgage holders considered ‘At Risk’ or ‘Extremely At Risk’ determined? Roy Morgan considers the
risk of ‘mortgage stress’ among Mortgage holders in two ways: Mortgage holders are
considered ‘At Risk’[1] if their mortgage repayments are greater than a certain
percentage of household income – depending on income and spending. Mortgage holders are
considered ‘Extremely at Risk’[2] if even the ‘interest only’ is over a certain proportion
of household income. Unemployment
is the key factor which has the largest impact on income and mortgage stress It is worth understanding
that this is a conservative forecasting model, essentially assuming all other
factors apart from interest rates and income tax changes remain the same. The latest Roy Morgan
unemployment estimates for July show nearly one-in-five Australian workers
are either unemployed or under-employed – 3,132,000 (19.8% of the workforce);
(In July Australian unemployment jumped to
10.1%; highest unemployment for a year since August 2023 as part-time jobs
were lost in July following the Mid-Year sales). Although all eyes are on
the latest inflation figures (due out at the end of August) and their
influence on future movements in interest rates, the fact remains the
greatest impact on an individual, or household’s, ability to pay their
mortgage is not interest rates, it’s if they lose their job or main source of
income. The recent income tax
cuts, which have now started boosting disposable income for the vast majority
of working Australians, are set to ease mortgage stress for many Australians
over the next few months. Michele
Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says the share of Australians in mortgage stress was
down in July with 1,604,000 mortgage holders (29.8%, down 0.5% points)
considered ‘At Risk’ as the Stage 3 income tax cuts ease the burden for many
Australians: “The
latest Roy Morgan data shows 1,604,000 mortgage holders were ‘At Risk’ of
mortgage stress in July 2024, clearly below the record high of 1.63 million
reached earlier this year. “The
figures for July 2024 represent an increase of 797,000 mortgage holders
considered ‘At Risk’ since the RBA began raising interest rates over two
years ago in May 2022. The figures take into account 13 rate increases which
raised interest rates by a total of 4.25% points to 4.35%. “The
latest ABS
monthly inflation figures for June 2024 showed
annual inflation at 3.8% – down 0.2% points from May 2024. Over the last
eight months since November 2023 the ABS monthly inflation figure has
averaged 3.8%, indicating the stickiness of the measure so far this year. “The
latest ABS figures on inflation show that inflation is still well above the
Reserve Bank’s preferred target range of 2-3%. In addition, key inflation
indicators such as petrol prices remain high – for the first time in history
average retail petrol prices have been above $1.80 per litre for a record 58
straight weeks – over a full year. “For
these reasons we have modelled interest rate increases of +0.25% in late
September to a potential high of 4.6%. Because of the Stage 3 tax cuts the
level of mortgage stress is set to come down in August, before increasing
again if there are further interest rates increases. “Even
if the Reserve Bank increases interest rates in late September the level of
mortgage stress by October will increase only marginally to 1,619,000 – up
15,000 from the current level – and equivalent to 30.1% of mortgage holders. “The
latest figures show that when considering mortgage stress, it is important to
appreciate that interest rates are only one of the variables that determines
whether a mortgage holder is considered ‘At Risk’. The Stage 3 income tax
cuts are delivering significant financial relief, and a boost to take home
pay, for millions of Australian taxpayers – including many mortgage holders. “As
these figures show, the variable with the largest impact on whether a
borrower falls into the ‘At Risk’ category is related to household income –
which is directly related to employment. The employment market has been
strong over the last year (the
latest Roy Morgan estimates show 375,000 new jobs created compared to a year
ago) and this has provided support to household
incomes which have helped to moderate levels of mortgage stress since the
highs of early 2024.” 27 August, 2024 Source:
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9657-mortgage-stress-risk-july-2024
861-864-43-27/Polls ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Down 0.8pts To 82.3, Inflation
Expectations Remain At Lowest Since November 2021
ANZ-Roy
Morgan Consumer Confidence was down slightly by 0.8pts to 82.3 this week.
Consumer Confidence has now spent a record 84 straight weeks below the mark
of 85. Consumer Confidence is now 4.7 points above the same week a year ago,
September 4-10, 2023 (77.6), and virtually identical to the 2024 weekly
average of 81.9. A look at Consumer
Confidence by State shows mixed results with Consumer Confidence down in NSW,
Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia, but up in Queensland. Current
financial conditions Future
financial conditions Short-term
economic confidence
Medium-term
economic confidence
Time
to buy a major household item
ANZ
Economist, Madeline Dunk, commented: The
trend in ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence has plateaued, with
the four-week moving average largely steady since early August. Weekly
confidence is currently 2.1pts below the July peak of 84.4pts, which marked a
six-month high in the series. The Stage 3 tax cuts and cost-of-living relief
do not appear to be progressively boosting households’ confidence. We
are, however, seeing a sustained improvement in inflation expectations which
were stable at a 32-month low of 4.6%. Lower petrol prices may be supporting
this shift. The result is likely be welcomed by the RBA, with Governor
Bullock noting last week that having well-anchored inflation expectations
helps to stabilise the economy, support economic growth and create more jobs.
10 September, 2024 Source:
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9565-anz-roy-morgan-consumer-confidence-september-10 MULTICOUNTRY STUDIES
861-864-43-28/Polls How
People In South Asia View Other South Asian Countries, Survey In 3 Countries
South Asians tend to view other countries in their
region more positively than negatively. But views vary by religion,
particularly when it comes to opinions of India and Pakistan. This data comes
from a Pew Research Center survey conducted Jan. 5-March 25, 2024. How we did this
We asked these questions to explore regional
dynamics in South Asia. Since the 1947 Partition of British India, there have
been historical, geopolitical and religious tensions in the region. We
surveyed adults in Bangladesh, India and Sri Lanka but were unable to survey
in Pakistan this year. Views of India In Bangladesh, opinions vary by support for the
ruling party at the time of the survey, the Bangladesh Awami League. The
survey was fielded before former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina resigned and fled to India this month. Supporters of her party are more likely than
nonsupporters to view India favorably (71% vs. 49%). Views also vary by education. In both Bangladesh and
Sri Lanka, adults with more education are more likely than those with less
education to express a positive view of India. Adults with more education are
also more likely to offer any opinion. Views of Sri Lanka Bangladeshis and Indians are about twice as likely
to have favorable views of Sri Lanka as they are to have an unfavorable
opinion. However, around a third of people in both places didn’t answer the
question. Indian adults who support Prime Minister Narendra
Modi’s National Democratic Alliance (NDA) are more likely than nonsupporters
to have favorable views of Sri Lanka (46% vs. 39%). (The survey took place
after Sri
Lankan President Ranil Wickremesinghe’s visit to India in July
2023.) Similarly, in Bangladesh, supporters of the former governing party
were more likely than nonsupporters to express a positive opinion of Sri
Lanka. Among Bangladeshis, views of Sri Lanka also vary by
education. Bangladeshis with higher levels of education are more likely than
those with less education to say they have a favorable view of Sri Lanka (60%
vs. 42%). Adults with higher education are also more likely to provide a
response. Views of Bangladesh Views of Bangladesh are more positive than negative
across India and Sri Lanka. Roughly half of Sri Lankan adults (47%) hold a
favorable opinion of Bangladesh, as do about a third in India (35%). But large shares in both countries answered “don’t
know” or didn’t answer the question. In fact, that share in India is larger
than the shares who said they either have a favorable or unfavorable view of
Bangladesh. The survey was fielded before deadly
clashes between Bangladeshi police and student protesters in July. Views of Pakistan Compared with their opinions of India, Bangladesh
and Sri Lanka, South Asians’ views of Pakistan are more mixed:
Indians have viewed Pakistan unfavorably since we
first asked this question in 2013. No more than two-in-ten Indian adults have
expressed a favorable view of Pakistan in that time. Relations between India
and Pakistan have been strained since the
1947 Partition of British India split the country into independent
India and Pakistan. Indians who do not support
the NDA are more likely than supporters to have favorable views of Pakistan
(15% vs. 9%). Views by religion Across the three South Asian countries surveyed,
views of other countries in the region often vary by religion. In both Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, Hindus are more
likely than other religious groups to have favorable views of India. For
example, in Sri Lanka, eight-in-ten Hindus express a positive opinion of
India, compared with fewer than seven-in-ten Buddhists, Christians and
Muslims. In Bangladesh and India, Hindus also tend to have
more positive views of Sri Lanka than Muslims do. For example, 62% of Hindus
in Bangladesh say they view Sri Lanka favorably, compared with 44% of
Muslims. Indian Muslims stand out from Hindus for being twice
as likely to have any opinion
of Pakistan (22% vs. 11%).
22 August, 2024 861-864-43-29/Polls August 2024:
Consumer Confidence Goes In Opposite Directions Among Latin American Countries,
Survey Across 29 Countries
Ipsos’ Global Consumer Confidence Index shows no significant change since
last month (+0.2 point) and is now at 48.7. The index shows stability for the
fifth consecutive month and remains around one point higher than its reading
from this time last year. None of the four sub-indices show a significant
change this month. Consumer confidence is mixed among Latin American
countries. Mexico (-7.3 points) shows the largest decline among all countries
and has lost nine points since May. In contrast, sentiment is up
significantly in both Peru (+4.8 points) and Colombia (+2.8 points). Sentiment is also going in opposite directions among
European countries. Poland (+2.7 points) and Great Britain (+2.5 points) both
rebounded from significant declines last month. However, confidence is down
in Germany (-2.0 points). The Global Consumer Confidence Index is the average
of all surveyed countries’ Overall or “National” indices. This month’s
installment is based on a monthly survey of more than 21,000 adults under the
age of 75 from 29 countries conducted on Ipsos’ Global Advisor online
platform. This survey was fielded between July 26 and August 9, 2024.
Consumer sentiment in 29
countries Among the 29 countries, Indonesia (63.6) now holds
the highest National Index score. Indonesia and India (61.6) are the only
countries with a National Index score of 60 or higher.
Eleven other countries now show a National Index
above the 50-point mark: Sweden (57.3), the Netherlands (55.6), the U.S.
(55.3), Malaysia (54.2), Great Britain (53.8), Brazil (53.1), Singapore
(52.5), Mexico (52.0), Spain (50.2), Canada (50.1) and South Africa (50.1). In contrast, just three countries show a National
Index below the 40-point mark: Japan (38.0), Hungary (36.8), and Türkiye
(36.4). Compared to 12 months ago, six countries show a
significant drop in consumer sentiment. In contrast, twelve countries show a
significant increase, most of all in South Africa (+9.5), Argentina (+8.6),
and Türkiye (+8.0).
Trends Ipsos’ Global Consumer Confidence Index (based on
all 29 countries surveyed) currently reads at 48.7, up an insignificant 0.2
point since July. Based only on the “legacy 20 countries” tracked since March
2010, it would read at 47.3. The Current sub-index, reflecting consumers’
perceptions of the economic climate and their current purchasing, jobs, and
investment confidence, shows minimal change (+0.3 point) and sits at 39.8.
Ten countries show a significant month-over-month gain (at least 2 points) in
their Current sub-index, compared to six that show a significant loss. The Investment sub-index, indicative of consumers’
perception of the investment climate, is relatively unchanged (+0.2 point)
and now sits at 42.0. In total, ten countries show a significant gain in
their Investment sub-index this month while six countries show a significant
loss. The Expectations sub-index, indicative of consumer
expectations about future economic conditions, is unchanged this month and
remains at 57.0. Seven countries show significant gains in their Expectations
sub-index, while just four countries show a significant loss. The Jobs sub-index, reflecting perceptions about
jobs security and the jobs market, shows an insignificant change (+0.4 point)
and is now at 57.3. Seven countries show significant gains in their Jobs
sub-index, and just four countries show significant losses. Of note, Mexico is the only country to show
significant losses (of at least 2 points) across all four sub-indices. In
contrast, Peru is the only country to show significant month-over-month gains
across all four sub-indices. 27 August, 2024 861-864-43-30/Polls Many
Around The Globe Say It’s Important Their Leader Stands Up For People’s
Religious Beliefs According To A Study In 35 Nations
When asked about the leader of their country, people
around the world are generally much more likely to say it is important to
have someone who stands up for people with their religious beliefs than to
say the leader needs to have strong religious beliefs of their own or to have
the same beliefs as they do. How we did this
In the United States, for instance, 64% of adults say it is
important to have a president who stands up for people who share the
respondent’s religious beliefs. Fewer (48%) say it’s important that a
president has their own strong
religious beliefs, even if the beliefs differ from those of the respondent.
And even fewer Americans (37%) say it is important for a president to have
religious beliefs that are the same as the respondent’s. In countries where religion is perceived as very
important, people are generally more likely to value each of these qualities
in a leader. For example, 94% of adults in Indonesia say religion is very
important in their lives, and 86% there say it’s important for their
president to have strong religious beliefs. This is among the highest levels
found in the 35 places surveyed. These findings are from a 35-country Pew Research
Center survey conducted from January to May 2024 among more than 53,000
respondents. Leaders who stand up for
people with your religious beliefs Adults in Indonesia, Bangladesh and the Philippines
are the most likely to say it is important to have a leader who stands up for
people with their religious beliefs: Roughly nine-in-ten in each country hold
this view. Around half or more in 22 additional countries say the same. However, in several European and East Asian
countries, adults are less likely to say it’s important for a national leader
to stand up for people with their religious beliefs. France, Japan and South
Korea stand out as some of the places where the smallest shares say this is
important. In each country, around a quarter of adults say this. Leaders who have strong
religious beliefs, even if they are different from your own Indonesia and the Philippines again top the list
when considering the share of adults who say it’s important that their leader
has strong religious beliefs, even if they are different from their own (86%
each say this). In all four African countries we surveyed – Ghana, Kenya,
Nigeria and South Africa – 70% or more say this, too. Swedish adults are the least likely to say it is
important to have a prime minister who has strong religious beliefs. Just 6%
of Swedes say this. Leaders who have religious
beliefs that are the same as your own About nine-in-ten Indonesian and Bangladeshi adults
say it’s important for their leader to have the same religious beliefs as
they do. Many people in neighboring South and Southeast Asian countries also
feel this way, including 81% of adults in India. This view is much less common in some countries. In
Singapore, a far smaller share (36%) say it is important for a prime minister
to share their religious beliefs. And Sweden again has the smallest share of
adults who say this is important (12%). Opinions on these
questions among the highly religious
People who say religion is very important in their
lives are far more likely than other adults to say it’s important for their
country’s leader to stand up for people with their religious beliefs. For example, 86% of Turkish adults for whom religion
is very important say it is important that the president stands up for people
with their religious beliefs, compared with 45% among Turks for whom religion
is less important. Similar patterns are evident when it comes to both
of the other measures asked about in this survey. Looking again at Turkey, 55% of adults who consider
religion very important say it is important for the country’s president to
have strong religious beliefs, even if these beliefs are different from their
own. Among less religious Turkish adults, 33% think this is important. How do people with
different religious identities feel?
Differences on these questions also emerge by
respondents’ religion. Among Hindus,
majorities say that all three measures of leaders’ religion-related qualities
are important. For example, nearly all Hindus in Bangladesh – 99% – say it is
important for their prime minister to stand up for people with their
religious beliefs. (The survey took place before Bangladesh’s
prime minister resigned.) Likewise, most Buddhists in both of the Buddhist-majority countries we
surveyed – Sri Lanka and Thailand – say all three religious aspects we asked
about are important in their leaders. But for Buddhists elsewhere, far
smaller shares voice these opinions. For example, while 70% of Thai Buddhists
feel it is important for their prime minister to stand up for people with
their religious beliefs, only 32% of Japanese Buddhists say the same. In general, most Muslims also say the various religious measures we
asked about are important when it comes to their leaders. But Muslims in
Israel are a notable exception. Only 30% of Israeli Muslims say it’s
important for the Israeli prime minister to have strong religious beliefs,
even if they differ from respondents’ own beliefs. Attitudes among Jews are mixed in Israel and the U.S. (the only two
places surveyed with large enough sample sizes of Jews to analyze). Most
Jewish adults in both countries say it is important for their prime minister
or president, respectively, to stand up for people with their religious
beliefs. But only about three-in-ten Jewish adults in either place say it is
important for the leader to have strong religious beliefs. And in the U.S., where only about
2% of the population is Jewish, just 13% of Jewish adults say it is
important for the president to have religious beliefs that are the same as
theirs. In Israel, where a large majority of the population is Jewish, 59% of
Jews see this as important. The opinions of Christians vary widely by country for all three
measures. For example, the share of Christians who say it’s important for
their country’s leader to stand up for people with their religious beliefs
ranges from 88% in the Philippines to 30% in France. The religiously
unaffiliated are consistently the least likely group to say each of
these measures is important. For instance, three-in-ten unaffiliated German
adults say it is important for their chancellor to stand up for people with
their religious beliefs. Roughly half of German Christians say the same. Differences by education,
ideology and age Adults with more education tend to be less likely than others to perceive
the religion-related qualities of their country’s leader as important. In
Greece, for instance, 38% of adults with at least a postsecondary education
say it is important to have a prime minister who stands up for people with
their religious beliefs. But among Greeks with less education, 49% say this. Views also vary by ideology. In many countries,
those on the ideological right are more likely than those on the left or in
the center to say their leader’s religious beliefs are important. For
example, in Turkey, those on the right are twice as likely as those on the
left to say it is important to have a leader who shares their religious
beliefs (92% vs. 46%). Across many countries surveyed, younger and older
adults largely agree on the importance of the three measures asked about when
it comes to their country’s leader. However, in Latin America, adults under
40 are consistently less likely than those ages 40 and older to say each is
important. For example, in Chile, 42% of adults under 40 say it is important
to have a president who stands up for people with their religious beliefs.
That share rises to 54% among older Chileans. 28 August, 2024 861-864-43-31/Polls Most
People In 35 Countries See The UN Favorably, But Views Have Dipped In Some
Places
As the 79th
United Nations General Assembly opens on Sept. 10, people around the
world generally see the UN in a positive light. A median of 58% across 35
countries have a favorable view of the organization, while 31% have a
negative view, according to a Pew Research Center survey conducted this
spring. How we did this
Views of the UN are less positive in some places.
Half or more in Greece, Israel, Japan, Tunisia and Turkey express a negative
opinion. How opinions of the UN
have changed over time Favorable views of the UN have dipped in many places
over the past year. In Israel, favorable views fell from 31% – which was
already relatively low – to 21% over the past year.
Similarly, 62% of Britons now see the UN favorably,
down from 72% last year. Positive ratings of the UN are also down in
Australia, France, Germany, Mexico, Nigeria, South Africa, South Korea and
Sweden. Americans’ views of the UN have turned more negative
over the past year as well. Today, 52% of U.S. adults see the UN in a
positive light, down 5 percentage points from 2023. Additionally, only 31%
see strengthening
the UN as a top foreign policy priority. Related: Fewer Americans view the United Nations favorably
than in 2023 In other countries, opinions of the
UN have declined over a longer period. For example, the share of people in
Malaysia who have a favorable opinion of the UN has decreased 10 points since
2022, and the share in Chile is down 12 points since 2013. Only in Argentina and Hungary have views become more
positive since last year (up 6 points and 15 points, respectively). How opinions of the UN
vary within countries
As has been the
case in a handful of countries in past years, people on the ideological
left are more likely than those on the right to express a positive opinion of
the UN. The ideological divide is largest in the U.S. and
Israel, where those on the left are at least 40 points more favorable toward
the UN than those on the right. Adults on the ideological left also have more
favorable views than those on the right in Australia, Canada, Germany,
Netherlands, Sweden, Turkey and the UK. However, people on the ideological right are more likely to express a
favorable opinion in South Africa, Greece and Spain. Notably, Greeks on the
right are also more favorable than those on the left toward NATO and
the EU. In some countries, ideological views of the UN have
shifted over time. For example, French adults on the ideological right have
grown much less positive toward the UN since 2023 (down 18 points) than those
on the left (-5) or in the center (-4) have. Among Swedes, too, those on the
right have grown significantly less favorable toward the UN (-10) than others
on the ideological spectrum have. Meanwhile, Hungarians on the right (+20)
and in the center (+16) have grown more favorable
of the UN, compared with those on the left. In 24 of the 35 countries surveyed, younger adults
are more likely than older adults to have a positive opinion of the UN. The
age divide is largest in Malaysia: 66% of adults ages 18 to 34 see the UN
favorably there, compared with 43% of those 50 and older. Education also relates to views of the UN in some
countries. For example, Germans with higher levels of education are more
likely than their counterparts with less education to hold a favorable
opinion of the UN (75% vs. 56%). In many of these countries, however, those
with less education are also less likely to provide a response. 05 September, 2024 |
