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BUSINESS
& POLITICS IN THE WORLD GLOBAL
OPINION REPORT NO. 858-860 Week: July 29 – August 18,
2024 Presentation: August 30, 2024 Power
Supply To Nigerians Still Inadequate, Yearlong Trend Analysis Shows PTSD
Suspected In 4% Of Former SDF South Sudan Peacekeepers Emaswati
Call On Government And Fellow Citizens To Tackle The ‘Serious Problem’ Of
Pollution South
Africans’ View Of Police Marred By Pervasive Corruption, Lack Of
Professionalism Two
Thirds Of Britons Say Social Media Companies Should Be Held Responsible For
Posts Inciting Riots A
Quarter Of Britons Think They Could Qualify For The 2028 Olympics Three
In Four Say Britain Is Divided, But Public Say Problems Are Less Serious Than
In The US 39%
Of Americans Believe The 2024 Election Will Not Be Conducted Fairly, 61 %
Disagree Majority
Of Americans Support More Nuclear Power In The Country Eggs,
Gasoline And Car Insurance: Where Inflation Has Hit Americans Hardest Harris
Energizes Democrats In Transformed Presidential Race Cigarette
Smoking Rate In U.S. Ties 80-Year Low Eight
In Ten Canadians Worried About Household Food Waste Iran’s
Position On Palestine Is Not Enough To Win The Favor Of The Citizens Of 7
MENA Countries INTRODUCTORY NOTE 858-860-43-23/Commentary: 39% Of Americans Believe The 2024
Election Will Not Be Conducted Fairly, 61 % Disagree
Americans are generally
confident that this fall’s presidential election will be conducted fairly and
accurately.
Yet Republicans and those
who lean toward the GOP are far less confident of this than Democrats and
Democratic leaners, according to a Pew Research Center survey conducted July
1-7, 2024. Overall, 61% of Americans
say they are very or somewhat confident the election will be conducted fairly
and accurately. These views have changed little since 2022 and 2020. The public is more
confident that all citizens who want to vote this fall will be able to. About
three-quarters of Americans (76%) say they are confident about this, a modest
increase since 2020. Partisan
differences in views of the way elections are conducted Between 2020 and 2022,
Democrats’ and Republicans’ views about the accuracy of elections shifted.
Today, partisan expectations about the 2024 presidential election are roughly
on par with views during the 2022 midterms.
Currently,
Democrats are 30 percentage points more likely than Republicans to express
confidence that the presidential election will be conducted fairly (77% vs.
47%). However, in April 2020, as the
coronavirus outbreak was spreading in the U.S., Republicans were more
confident than Democrats that the election would be conducted fairly and
accurately (75% vs. 46%). At that time, Democrats
were far more likely than Republicans to believe that the COVID-19 pandemic would disrupt voting. Eight-in-ten Democrats said this was
likely, compared with about half of Republicans. Over the same period, the
partisan gap in views of whether all citizens who want to vote in the
election will be able to has narrowed. This is almost entirely due to a
change in views among Democrats. In April 2020, 43% of
Democrats had confidence this would be the case. Today, 71% say this. Among
Republicans, roughly eight-in-ten or more have continued to say they are
confident that all citizens who want to vote will be able to. Intraparty
divides in views of election fairness Among
Democrats A majority of Democrats –
regardless of their age, race or ethnicity – say they have at least some
confidence that the election will be conducted fairly and accurately.
However, younger Democrats are somewhat less likely than their older
counterparts to say this. Two-thirds of Democrats
ages 18 to 29 are at least somewhat confident, compared with 87% of those 65
and older.
In addition, White
Democrats are far more likely than Black and Hispanic Democrats to say they
are confident the 2024 election will be conducted fairly and accurately. Among
Republicans Among Republicans, age
gaps in views of the election are modest. There are more pronounced
differences by race and ethnicity. White Republicans (45%)
are less likely than Black (62%), Asian (61%) and Hispanic (56%) Republicans
to say they are confident the election will be conducted fairly and
accurately. Intraparty
divides in views of voting accessibility Among
Democrats As with expectations that
the election will be conducted fairly and accurately, there are differences
by age, race and ethnicity in Democrats’ views of whether all citizens who
want to vote in the election will be able to.
Democrats ages 50 and
older are more likely than those under 50 to say they are confident in this
(77% vs. 66%). Black Democrats are less
likely than White and Hispanic Democrats to say they are confident that all
citizens who want to vote in the election will be able to. Among Republicans Republicans ages 50 and
older are slightly more likely than those under 50 to say they are confident
that all citizens who want to vote in the election will be able to. But there are much wider
divisions by race and ethnicity. Black Republicans (65%) are far less likely
than White (85%), Hispanic (85%) and Asian Republicans (78%) to say they are
confident that all citizens who want to vote will be able to. (PEW) 01 August, 2024 SUMMARY OF POLLS ASIA (Pakistan) Two-In-Five Adult Pakistanis
And Two-Thirds Of Men And Women Under The Age Of Thirty Use Social Media;
Significant Gender Gap Exists According to a survey
conducted by Gallup & Gilani Pakistan, two-in-five adult Pakistanis and
twothirds of men and women under the age of thirty use social media apps apps
like TikTok, Facebook and/or Instagram. The survey also reveals a reasonably
large gender gap of 10% between men and women in social media usage.
Moreover, the findings show that usage among younger generation (born in 1994
or later) is significantly higher than the national average. (Gallup Pakistan) 07 August, 2024 1 In 5 Pakistanis (17%) Feel
Society Does Not Give Enough Respect To Government School Teachers; Women And
Rural Residents More Likely To Hold This View According to a survey
conducted by Gallup & Gilani Pakistan, 1 in 5 Pakistanis (17%) feel
society does not give enough respect to government school teachers. A deeper
analysis reveals that Pakistani women were 4% more likely to hold this view
than men. Additionally, rural residents were more prone to feeling a lack of
respect towards government teachers, compared to urban residents. (Gallup Pakistan) 15 August, 2024 AFRICA (Nigeria) Power Supply To Nigerians Still
Inadequate, Yearlong Trend Analysis Shows According to World Bank
statistics, 85 million Nigerians do not have access to grid electricity. This
is a staggering figure, considering the country’s estimated population of 200
million, and it makes Nigeria a country with the largest energy access deficit
in the world. The lack of reliable power is a substantial constraint for
citizens and businesses, resulting in annual economic losses estimated at
$26.2 billion (₦10.1 trillion) which is equivalent to about 2 per cent
of the country's gross domestic product (GDP). (NOI Polls) 29 July, 2024 (South Sudan) PTSD Suspected In 4% Of Former
SDF South Sudan Peacekeepers Nearly 4 percent of Ground
Self-Defense Force members deployed as U.N. peacekeepers in South Sudan
during the 2010s showed suspected post-traumatic stress disorder symptoms
afterward, a study found. The analysis also found that poor health
conditions, particularly sleep disorders, prior to deployment increased the
risk of developing severe PTSD symptoms later. An evaluation based on
international standards found that 117 members, or 3.95 percent of the total,
showed suspected PTSD symptoms after returning from the mission. (Asahi Shimbun) 05 August, 2024 (Emaswati) Emaswati
Call On Government And Fellow Citizens To Tackle The ‘Serious Problem’ Of
Pollution Six in 10 Emaswati (60%)
say pollution is a “somewhat serious” or “very serious” problem in their
communities. o Citizens cite trash disposal (44%), water pollution (18%), and
human waste management (10%) as the most important environmental issues
affecting their communities. o Almost eight in 10 citizens (79%) say plastic
bags are a major source of pollution in Eswatini. Two-thirds (66%) of
Emaswati say the primary responsibility for reducing pollution and keeping
communities clean rests with ordinary citizens. Far fewer would assign that
responsibility primarily to the national government (12%) or local government
(8%). (Afrobarometer) 06 August, 2024 (South
Africa) South
Africans’ View Of Police Marred By Pervasive Corruption, Lack Of
Professionalism Three-quarters (75%) of
South Africans say they felt unsafe while walking in their neighbourhood at
least once during the year preceding the survey. About two-thirds (65%)
report fearing crime in their home. Experiences of insecurity are
particularly common among poor citizens, urban residents, women, and Black
citizens. One-third (34%) of South Africans live within easy walking distance
of a police station. (Afrobarometer) 16 August, 2024 WEST EUROPE (UK) Two Thirds Of Britons Say
Social Media Companies Should Be Held Responsible For Posts Inciting Riots Now a new YouGov survey
shows that the British public agrees, with two thirds of Britons (66%) saying
that social media companies should be held responsible for posts inciting
criminal behaviour during the recent unrest. Only one in five Britons (20%)
say social media companies should not be held responsible for content made by
users. Reform UK voters in particular are more likely to say social media
firms shouldn’t be considered responsible for users’ posts, at 41% compared
to 11-15% of Labour, Conservative and Lib Dem voters. (YouGov UK) 09 August, 2024 A Quarter Of Britons Think They
Could Qualify For The 2028 Olympics Across 25 different
sports, we asked the British public whether they thought they could qualify
for the 2028 Olympics if they started training today. The results show that
more than one in four Britons (27%) reckon they could become an Olympic-level
athlete in at least one of those sports in that time. The youngest Britons
are by far the most likely to think they have what it takes to compete on the
world stage, with 39% of 18-24 year olds saying so, alongside 34% of 25-49
year olds. Understandably the oldest Britons are far less certain, although
even still 15% of the over-65s think they could compete at an Olympic level
in four years’ time if they put their mind to it. (YouGov UK) 10 August, 2024 Six In Ten Britons Support GB
Energy In Principle, With The Public Highly Supportive Of Expanding Renewable
Energy Production One of Labour’s flagship
policies at the election was the establishment of GB Energy, a publicly-owned
company that would generate renewable energy. This should be an early easy
win for the government, with the principle behind GB Energy – of a
government-owned renewable energy generation company – being supported by six
in ten Britons (62%) and opposed by only one in six (17%). This notably
includes support from 59% of Conservative voters, half of Reform UK voters
(49%), as well as around three-quarters of Labour and Lib Dem voters
(74-77%). (YouGov UK) 12 August, 2024 Britons More Favourable Towards
Kamala Harris Than Joe Biden Or Donald Trump – But Half Believe Trump Will
Win New exclusive polling by
Ipsos for the Evening Standard, taken July 24-25, has found that the British
public are more favourable towards Kamala Harris than either Joe Biden or
Donald Trump. 34% have a favourable opinion of the Vice President, compared
with 26% for Biden and 24% for Trump. Almost half (46%) say that a
Harris presidency would have a positive impact on the UK’s relationship with
the US, up significantly from the 27% who said the same of a Biden presidency
in May. Conversely, half (52%) believe that a Trump presidency would have a
negative impact on the UK/US relationship. (Ipsos MORI) 01 August, 2024 Three In Four Say Britain Is
Divided, But Public Say Problems Are Less Serious Than In The US New Ipsos polling, taken
22-24 July (before recent events in Southport), examines attitudes towards
division and political violence in Great Britain, and whether levels of
concern are higher than in the United States. Three quarters (76%) of
Britons believe that Britain is divided these days. However, this is down
from 85% who said the same in February 2018 (-9). Two in three 64% believe
that British society is more divided than ten years ago – although this has
decreased from 71% in May 2019. (Ipsos MORI) 02 August, 2024 James
Cleverly Tops List Of Who Would Make A Good Tory Leader – But 3 In 5 Britons
Say They Don’t Care New polling by Ipsos,
taken August 2-5, has examined attitudes towards the current race to become
leader of the Conservative party. Shadow Home Secretary James Cleverly
narrowly leads, with 18% of Britons believing he would do a good job. Priti
Patel and Tom Tugendhat follow close behind at 17% each. However, 44% say
that Priti Patel would do a bad job, giving her a net approval rating of -27
– the lowest of any candidate. (Ipsos MORI) 12 August, 2024 NORTH AMERICA (USA) 39%
Of Americans Believe The 2024 Election Will Not Be Conducted Fairly, 61 %
Disagree Overall, 61% of Americans
say they are very or somewhat confident the election will be conducted fairly
and accurately. These views have changed little since 2022 and 2020. The
public is more confident that all citizens who want to vote this fall will be
able to. About three-quarters of Americans (76%) say they are confident about
this, a modest increase since 2020. Yet Republicans and those who lean toward
the GOP are far less confident of this than Democrats and Democratic leaners,
according to a Pew Research Center survey conducted July 1-7, 2024. (PEW) 01 August, 2024 Majority
Of Americans Support More Nuclear Power In The Country A majority of U.S. adults
remain supportive of expanding nuclear power in the country, according
to a Pew Research Center survey from May. Overall, 56% say they favor more nuclear
power plants to generate electricity. This share is statistically unchanged
from last year. Americans remain more likely to favor expanding solar power
(78%) and wind power (72%) than nuclear power. Yet while support for solar
and wind power has declined by double digits since 2020 – largely driven by drops in Republican
support –
the share who favor nuclear power has grown by 13 percentage points over that
span. (PEW) 05 August, 2024 Eggs, Gasoline And Car
Insurance: Where Inflation Has Hit Americans Hardest Overall, the June 2024
CPI-U was 21.8% above its level in January 2020, before the pandemic really
began to hit the United States. But the costs of many products and services
have risen much more than that. Topping the list: margarine, which as of June
is 56.8% pricier than in January 2020. Other notable increases include motor
vehicle repair services (up 47.5%), motor vehicle insurance (47.3%) and
veterinarian services (35.6%). (PEW) 07 August, 2024 Harris Energizes Democrats In
Transformed Presidential Race Among registered voters
nationally, 46% say if the election were held today, they would support
Harris, while 45% favor Trump and 7% back Robert F. Kennedy Jr. A month ago, Trump held a 4 percentage point lead
over Joe Biden (44% vs. 40%), who withdrew from the presidential race on July 21. Most of Harris’ gains
have come at the expense of Kennedy, whose support has declined by roughly
half in the past month, from 15% to 7%. Yet (PEW) 14 August, 2024 Cigarette Smoking Rate In U.S.
Ties 80-Year Low Cigarette smoking in the
U.S. is at a low point, according to eight decades of Gallup trends.
Currently, 11% of U.S. adults say they have smoked cigarettes in the past
week, matching the historical low measured in 2022 (and nearly matched at 12%
in 2023). When Gallup first asked about cigarette smoking in 1944, 41% of
U.S. adults said they smoked. The current smoking rate is about half as large
as it was a decade ago and one-third as large as it was in the late 1980s. (Gallup) 13 August, 2024 (Canada) The AI Revolution: As Many As
One in Three (33%) Canadians Already Embracing AI for Financial Management The artificial
intelligence (AI) revolution might have just arrived, with a new Ipsos poll
conducted on behalf of BMO finding that as many as one in three (33%)
Canadians are already using AI to manage their finances, including a majority
(55%) of Gen Z. More than half (54%) of Canadians are using AI to ask general
questions about topics of interest, while significant proportions are using
it to assist with the development of written drafts (41%), photo and/or video
editing (39%), data analysis (37%), schedule management (36%), and/or plan
building (36%). (Ipsos Canada) 30 July, 2024 Eight In Ten Canadians Worried
About Household Food Waste Eight in ten (77%)
Canadians who use food-storage products agree that reducing their household’s
food waste is important to them, according to a new Ipsos poll conducted for
FoodSaver® and Newell Brands. Nearly half (49%) of Canadians say they try to
only cook what their household will consume for each meal, while a similar
proportion (43%) are looking for better solutions for food storage in their
home. Two in three (66%) maintain that it’s important to them to use
reuseable or environmentally-friendly products in their kitchen. (Ipsos Canada) 13 August, 2024 AUSTRALIA ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Up 2.6pts To
83.9 After The RBA Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged Again ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer
Confidence increased 2.6pts to 83.9 this week after the Reserve Bank of
Australia left interest rates unchanged for a sixth straight meeting last
Tuesday. However, despite the improvement, looking longer-term the index has
now spent a record 80 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer
Confidence is a now 5.7 points above the same week a year ago, August 7-13,
2023 (78.2), and is now 3.1 points above the 2024 weekly average of 81.8. (Roy Morgan) 13 August, 2024 MULTICOUNTRY STUDIES Iran’s Position On Palestine Is Not Enough To
Win The Favor Of The Citizens Of 7 MENA Countries Overall, favorability of
Iran is low across surveyed countries. A minority of citizens in each Lebanon
(36 percent), Palestine (28 percent), Jordan (25 percent), and Kuwait (15
percent) have a very or somewhat favorable view of the country. And equally small
shares have positive assessments of the foreign policy of Supreme Leader Ali
Khamenei, ranging from just nine percent in Kuwait and maxing out at 32
percent in each Lebanon and Tunisia. In all surveyed countries save Lebanon,
the only leaders whose policies are less favored than Khamenei’s are
variously American President Joseph Biden and/or Syrian President Bashar
Assad. (Arabbarometer) 31 July, 2024 Keeping Up With The People’s Agenda: Popular
Priorities For Government Action In 39 Countries, And How They Are Evolving Across 39 African
countries, we find widespread pessimism: 66% of respondents believe their
country is heading in the wrong direction (Figure 1). o These assessments are
rapidly getting worse. Ten years ago, citizens in 30 countries were evenly
divided between “right direction” (47%) and “wrong direction” (46%). But
after a 20-percentage-point decline in positive assessments, those who say
“wrong direction” now outnumber those who take the positive view by a 2-to-1
margin. (Afrobarometer) 09 August, 2024 ASIA
858-860-43-01/Polls Two-In-Five Adult Pakistanis And Two-Thirds Of Men And
Women Under The Age Of Thirty Use Social Media; Significant Gender Gap Exists
According to a survey
conducted by Gallup & Gilani Pakistan, two-in-five adult Pakistanis and
twothirds of men and women under the age of thirty use social media apps apps
like TikTok, Facebook and/or Instagram. The survey also reveals a reasonably
large gender gap of 10% between men and women in social media usage.
Moreover, the findings show that usage among younger generation (born in 1994
or later) is significantly higher than the national average. This press
release is in a series of press releases Gallup Pakistan is producing on the
issue of public behavior regarding social media usage. A nationally
representative sample of adult men and women from across the country was
asked the question, “Do you use social media apps like Tik Tok, Facebook or
Instagram or do you have an account on these social media apps?” In response,
40% said ‘Yes’, and 60% said ‘No’.
Across gender: More
Pakistani men (45%) either use or have an account on social media apps like
TikTok, Facebook and/or Instagram, as compared to women (35%).
Across age groups: The
incidence of either using or having an account on social media apps like
TikTok, Facebook and/or Instagram was highest among the ‘Under 30’ age group
at 62%, while it was the same for the ’30 - 50’ and ‘50+’ age groups at 30%.
(Gallup Pakistan) 07 August, 2024 Source:
https://gallup.com.pk/wp/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/07.08.2024.Daily-poll-English.pdf
858-860-43-02/Polls 1 In 5 Pakistanis (17%) Feel Society Does Not Give Enough
Respect To Government School Teachers; Women And Rural Residents More Likely
To Hold This View
According to a survey
conducted by Gallup & Gilani Pakistan, 1 in 5 Pakistanis (17%) feel
society does not give enough respect to government school teachers. A deeper
analysis reveals that Pakistani women were 4% more likely to hold this view
than men. Additionally, rural residents were more prone to feeling a lack of
respect towards government teachers, compared to urban residents. This press
release is in a series of press releases Gallup Pakistan is producing on the
issue of public opinion regarding government school teachers. You can access
press release 1 of this series here and press release 2 of this series here.
A nationally representative sample of adult men and women from across the
country was asked the question, “How do you think the people of Pakistan
generally view government teachers?” In response, 70% said ‘Respectfully’,
17% replied ‘Consider them inferior’, 8% answered ‘Neither of the two’, and
5% said that they did not know or gave no response.
Across gender: Pakistani
women were more likely (19%) to think that Pakistani society views government
teachers as inferior, as compared to men (15%).
Across rurality: Urban
residents of Pakistan were more likely (73%) to think that Pakistani society
views government teachers respectfully, as compared to rural residents (68%).
(Gallup Pakistan) 15 August, 2024 Source:
https://gallup.com.pk/wp/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/15.08.2024.Daily-poll-English.pdf AFRICA
858-860-43-03/Polls Power Supply To Nigerians Still Inadequate, Yearlong Trend
Analysis Shows
Nigeria’s electricity
problem is a perennial and teething problem that has gone on unabated for
years without a requisite solution in sight. As a result, Nigerians have
continued to grope in darkness due to the challenges bedeviling the power
sector in the country. According to World Bank
statistics, 85 million Nigerians do not have access to grid electricity. This
is a staggering figure, considering the country’s estimated population of 200
million, and it makes Nigeria a country with the largest energy access deficit
in the world. The lack of reliable power is a substantial constraint for
citizens and businesses, resulting in annual economic losses estimated at
$26.2 billion (₦10.1 trillion) which is equivalent to about 2 per cent
of the country's gross domestic product (GDP). According to the World Bank
Doing Business 2020 report, Nigeria ranks 171 out of 190 countries in getting
electricity, and its access is seen as one of the major constraints for the
private sector. Against this backdrop,
NOIPolls presents findings from its one-year power poll series. The poll
conducted over one year (June 2023 to May 2024), assessed the opinions and
perceptions of Nigerians regarding electricity supply to their households.
Some 11,000 plus respondents were interviewed across the 36 states and the
FCT in the survey within one year.
Chart shows trend in power
supply from June 2023 to May 2024 The results over the last
one year (June 2023 to May 2024) is a monthly trend analysis of power supply
which showed a greater improvement in power supply in November 2023 while the
lowest supply occurred in February 2024 as expressed by 51 percent and 13
percent of Nigerians interviewed, respectively.
How Nigerians describe the
improvement or otherwise of power supply in their area in the preceding month Further findings revealed
that the highest average cumulative hours of power supply were recorded in
November 2023 which stood at 8.9 hours per day, whereas the months of
February and April experienced the lowest in terms of average cumulative
hours of power supply (4.7 hours per day each) in 2024. This cumulative
hourly average recorded in November 2023 is inadequate compared to an ideal
24 hours of power supply which is required for the overall progress and
development of the country and its citizenry.
Therefore, to drastically
improve the status quo in the electricity sector, experts in this sector need
to identify more efficient means of electricity generation. For instance, the
use of embedded generation will help eliminate the long distance the power
travels to get to the end user and will ultimately improve the supply of
electricity. It is, therefore, advised that the Government and stakeholders
in the power sector synergise to provide adequate power supply. This is
important because the decline in power supply will continue to hamper
economic activities, especially of businesses whose operations depend majorly
on the power supply.
Average cumulative hours
of power supply Nigerians got in a day over 11 months from June 2023 to May
2024 Conclusion In conclusion, the poll
result revealed that Nigerians experienced better power supply in November
2023 with an average cumulative hours of power supply per day of 8.9 hours
between June 2023 and May 2024. This average cumulative hours of power supply
to Nigerian households is grossly inadequate for the country and therefore
requires urgent attention for improvement. There are challenges experienced
in the sector, which include vandalism, theft of equipment, pipe breakage in
the case of gas supply, general infrastructure deficit and many others,
however it is expected that the stakeholders will surmount these challenges
and put the country on track for uninterrupted power supply to foster greater
economic development in Nigeria. The government and stakeholders can leverage
other forms of power generation like solar, wind, geo-thermal etc, which is
the most viable option to ameliorate the power problem in the country. (NOI Polls) 29 July, 2024
858-860-43-04/Polls PTSD Suspected In 4% Of Former SDF South Sudan Peacekeepers
Nearly 4 percent of Ground
Self-Defense Force members deployed as U.N. peacekeepers in South Sudan
during the 2010s showed suspected post-traumatic stress disorder symptoms
afterward, a study found. The analysis also found
that poor health conditions, particularly sleep disorders, prior to
deployment increased the risk of developing severe PTSD symptoms later. “Humanitarian assistance
missions by SDF members carry a heavy burden,” said Masanori Nagamine, a
member of the research team and professor of occupational mental health at
the National Defense Medical College. “We want to support their
activities and alleviate PTSD symptoms by taking measures to improve sleep
and reduce anxiety in advance,” said Nagamine. The research team analyzed
the health survey data of 2,962 GSDF members who had spent six months in
South Sudan on a U.N. peacekeeping operation between January 2012 and May
2017. The health surveys were
initially conducted prior to deployment and then followed six to 78 months
after the GSDF members returned to Japan. Of those surveyed, 98
percent were men. The members' average age was 33.9 years. An evaluation based on
international standards found that 117 members, or 3.95 percent of the total,
showed suspected PTSD symptoms after returning from the mission. When examining the
relationship between health conditions shown before deployment and the later
development of PTSD symptoms, sleep disorders were identified as a common
risk factor, the research team said. Japan dispatched a total
of 3,912 peacekeepers from the GSDF’s engineering unit to South Sudan, which
gained independence in 2011. Their primary mission was to improve
infrastructure, repair roads and build facilities for international
organizations. However, tensions
grew in South Sudan during the U.N. peacekeeping operation. A
military conflict broke out in 2013 between the president’s forces and the
faction loyal to a former vice president. A large number of civilians were
killed in the civil war in 2016. In December 2016, GSDF
peacekeepers were assigned a new task to carry weapons and rescue U.N.
officials and others who came under attack by armed forces, even if they were
away from the peacekeepers' bases. (Asahi Shimbun) 05 August, 2024 Source:
https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/15376624
858-860-43-05/Polls Emaswati Call On Government And Fellow Citizens To Tackle
The ‘Serious Problem’ Of Pollution
Eswatini is known for its
scenic landscapes, lush game reserves, and rich diversity of fauna and
flora underpinning a tourism industry that contributed 9.2% of the country’s
gross domestic product in 2023 (World Travel & Tourism Council, 2023). The country also enjoys a
remarkable natural resource endowment that includes asbestos, coal,
clay, cassiterite, hydropower, forests, gold, diamonds, quarry stone, and
talc (CIA Factbook, 2024). Minerals are so prized that they are
symbolised by the yellow in the national flag. However, economic
development, population growth, climate change, and urbanisation have
had serious environmental consequences, including the depletion of
freshwater, soil erosion and degradation, land and water pollution, and
biodiversity loss (Eswatini Environment Authority, 2020). To address these and other
environmental challenges, the government established a National
Environment Coordination Department under the Ministry of Tourism and
Environmental Affairs. This department is responsible for policy coordination
and oversight of all environmental matters, including waste management
(United Nations Environment Programme, 2019). Eswatini is striving to
achieve land-degradation neutrality, with stable or increased amounts and
quality of needed land resources, by 2030 (Eswatini Environment Authority,
2020). The country is also working to reduce biodiversity loss through
ecosystem restoration and land rehabilitation, aiming to enhance food
security and restore ecosystem services to benefit the rural poor
(Eswatini Government, 2023). This dispatch reports on a
special survey module included in the Afrobarometer Round 9
questionnaire that explores citizens’ experiences and perceptions of
pollution, environmental governance, and natural resource
extraction. Findings show that
Emaswati are concerned about pollution, rating trash disposal as the
most important environmental issue in their communities and describing
plastic bags as a major source of pollution. A majority of respondents
say their fellow citizens should be first in line to address pollution
and keep their communities clean. However, most also say the government
should be doing more on this score. If environmental
protection policies threaten jobs, a majority of individuals believe
job creation should be prioritised. However, nearly two-thirds want the
government to tighten resource extraction regulations to protect the
environment from despoliation. Key findings
(Afrobarometer) 06 August, 2024
858-860-43-06/Polls South Africans’ View Of Police Marred By Pervasive
Corruption, Lack Of Professionalism
August 16 marks 12 years
since South African police gunned down 34 striking mineworkers in
Marikana in the most brutal display of repression of dissent since the
country’s transition to democracy. Cyril Ramaphosa, then a board member
of Lonmin, where the miners were striking, was heavily involved in
escalating the confrontation (Munusamy, 2015) but managed to shake off
the controversy on his way to becoming president. Regrettably, scenes of
police brutality have continued, notably during the 2015-2016
#FeesMustFall protests and the 2020 COVID-19 lockdown (Amnesty International,
2016; McCain, 2021). The Independent Police Investigative Directorate
reported a 32% surge in complaints against police officers during the
first 41 days of lockdown compared to the same period in the previous
year (Burger, 2020). Despite budgetary
increases in recent years (SA News, 2024a), the South African Police
Service has failed to rein in crime. Official statistics show 7,710 homicides
in the final three months of 2023 – an increase of 155 compared to the
same period the previous year (SA News, 2024b). Over the past two
decades, homicides in South Africa have seen a sharp rise, reaching a
peak of 45 deaths per 100,000 people in 2023. The Eastern Cape,
KwaZulu-Natal, Gauteng, and Western Cape provinces recorded 83% of the country’s
homicides in 2022/2023 (Bruce, 2023). Moreover, a recent report
by the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime revealed that
South Africa saw 10 political killings in the first four months of 2024, just
prior to the May election (Matamba & Thobela, 2024) – an average of one
assassination every two weeks. Political violence is used as a tool to
control dissenting voices, manage the tussle for succession, invade
local government, and manipulate political outcomes (Mwareya,
2023). Women and children are
particularly vulnerable to violent crime, including homicide. The
latest figures indicate that 18,474 women and 2,281 children were violently
assaulted in the last quarter of 2023, while 1,135 women and 285
children were slain during the same period (South African Police Service,
2024). The true extent of violent crimes against women and children is
unknown, as many go unreported (Business Tech, 2022). Statistics South Africa’s
(2024) Crime Against Children report found that children as young as 6
years are victims of many interpersonal crimes, including rape and assault.
Child abduction is also a growing concern, with more than 1,300 cases a month
reported to the police (Peterson, 2024). Six-year-old Joslin Smith, who
vanished from her home in Saldanha Bay in February, remains missing nearly
six months after her disappearance (Swartz, 2024), and she is just one
of many (Francke, 2024). Amid these challenges, how
do South Africans see their police? This dispatch reports on a special
survey module included in the Afrobarometer Round 9 (2021/2023) questionnaire
to explore Africans’ experiences and assessments of police professionalism. In South Africa, many
citizens express little or no trust in the police and believe that
corruption is rife among police officers. Solid majorities say police
officers at least “sometimes” engage in criminal activities, stop
drivers without good reason, and use excessive force in dealing with
criminals and in managing protests. Only one in four citizens say the police
generally operate in a professional manner, and only one in 10 think
the government is doing a good job of reducing crime. Key findings
(Afrobarometer) 16 August, 2024 WEST EUROPE
858-860-43-07/Polls Two Thirds Of Britons Say Social Media Companies Should Be
Held Responsible For Posts Inciting Riots
Seven
in ten say firms did a poor job handling the spread of misinformation during
the past week Social media companies
have come in for significant criticism in the last week, after misinformation
falsely suggesting the Southport murderer was a Muslim immigrant spread
across networks, contributing to incidents of disorder across the country –
many of which themselves were organised on social media. Some individuals have
already been arrested for content they have posted, but home secretary Yvette
Cooper has said that social media companies need to take responsibility for amplifying
misinformation and encouragement of violence. Now a new YouGov survey
shows that the British public agrees, with two thirds of Britons (66%) saying
that social media companies should be held responsible for posts inciting
criminal behaviour during the recent unrest. Only one in five Britons
(20%) say social media companies should not be held responsible for content
made by users. Reform UK voters in particular are more likely to say social
media firms shouldn’t be considered responsible for users’ posts, at 41% compared
to 11-15% of Labour, Conservative and Lib Dem voters.
There is also a
significant age divide, with the youngest Britons substantially more likely
to say think firms are not responsible for the posts of users, at 33% of
18-24 year olds compared to 12% of the over-65s. While social media firms
have been acting to varying degrees to counter harmful content, the large majority of Britons (71%) say
the companies did a bad job at tackling misinformation during the unrest,
including 46% who think they did a “very bad” job. Just 9% think they did a
good job. While a majority of people
across all voting and social groups agree that the social media companies
handled the crisis poorly, Reform UK voters are again the least likely to do
so, at 56% - almost a quarter believe they handled the situation well (23%).
Social
media firms aren’t regulated enough, say Britons Given these complaints, it
is no surprise to see that the large majority of Britons believe that social
media firms are not regulated strongly enough. Seven in ten people say so
(70%), including 39% who think there is “much too little” regulation of the tech
firms. Only 14% of Britons think
social media firms are regulated to the right degree, while a further 7%
think that companies are regulated too much. Traditional media firms
have also come in for their share of blame in
the wake of the riots.
Indeed, while 86% of Britons felt that social media had a great deal or fair
amount of responsibility for the recent unrest, so too did 69% of the public when it came
to the news media. While many Britons also
tend to think that media companies are not regulated enough, a much more
sizeable portion disagree. Close to half of people (46%) think that print
media companies are not regulated strongly enough, but 34% think they are
appropriately regulated and 7% say they are regulated too tightly.
Likewise, four in ten
Britons think broadcast media firms are insufficiently regulated (42%), but
almost as many think the level of regulation is about right (39%), and 9% go
further and say the requirements are too strict. Reform UK voters again
hold distinct views on the regulation of social media firms, being twice as
likely to think either that social firms are regulated the right amount (26%)
or are too restrictively regulated (17%). While this is distinct from other voters,
it is worth noting that these figures are consistent with Reform voters’
attitudes to how far traditional media firms should be regulated.
(YouGov UK) 09 August, 2024
858-860-43-08/Polls A Quarter Of Britons Think They Could Qualify For The 2028
Olympics
Perhaps the most memorable
image to come out of the Paris 2024 Olympics has been that of Turkish shooter
Yusuf Dikec. In contrast to other athletes at the 10m air pistol mixed team
event, who competed bedecked in specialised gear like visors, blinders and
ear defenders, Dikec became a viral meme for shooting casually without any
gear, in baggy clothing, and with one hand in his pocket, looking for all the
world like he had just wandered in off the street. While Yusuf Dikec may have
looked like some random guy, he is a sport shooting world record holder, having been competing since 2001, and now
holds an Olympic silver medal alongside a host of other awards. But how many Britons think
they could be what Dikec appears to be – an everyman Olympian? Across 25
different sports, we asked the British public whether they thought they could
qualify for the 2028 Olympics if they started training today. The results show that more
than one in four Britons (27%) reckon they could become an Olympic-level
athlete in at least one of those sports in that time. The youngest Britons are
by far the most likely to think they have what it takes to compete on the
world stage, with 39% of 18-24 year olds saying so, alongside 34% of 25-49
year olds. Understandably the oldest Britons are far less certain, although
even still 15% of the over-65s think they could compete at an Olympic level
in four years’ time if they put their mind to it. This is not necessarily out
of the question: the oldest athlete at this year’s games has been 65 year old
Spaniard Juan Antonio Jimenez Cobo, an equestrian competitor.
The results also show that
men are slightly more likely than women (30% vs 25%) to think they could make
the Olympic team in 2028. While the public may
appear overconfident, their thoughts are perhaps more understandable when you
realise that the two sports they are most likely to think they could compete
in require some of the least physical activity. At 15%, Britons are most
likely to reckon they could definitely or probably qualify for the 10m Air
Rifle team if they started training today. A similar 13% believe that they
have a good chance of making the Olympic archery team if they set foot in a
range for four years of practice beginning today.
Third comes badminton,
which 10% of Britons think they stand a chance of making the grade on if they
trained for the next four years, followed by table tennis (9%) and rowing
(7%). At the bottom of the
scale, only 3% of Britons think they could qualify in rhythmic gymnastics,
artistic gymnastics, diving, rugby sevens, or skateboarding. Young Britons, who are
most confident of their sporting potential overall, are most likely to think
they could be a competitor in archery, table tennis and the 100m sprint, with
17% saying so for each sport. On this latter sport in particular they are far
more confident than other age groups – only 2-7% of the over-25s think they
stand a chance in the 100m dash. For the three older age
groups, each are most likely to think they stand a chance in the shooting
first and the archery second.
With male confidence well-documented over the years, it might be a surprise to see that men are not
that much more likely than women to believe they could compete in the
Olympics in 2028. The event on which the
genders differ most is shooting, which men are almost twice as likely to
think they could compete in than women, at 19% vs 10%. Men are also
noticeably more likely than women to think they could qualify for the
football (8% vs 2%) – on this they may have a point, as Team GB has not put
up a men’s Olympic football team since 1960 (except for London 2012). The only sport listed that
women are noticeably more likely to think they could compete to an Olympic
standard than men is the 100m breaststroke, which 9% of women believe they
stand a chance of qualifying for compared to 4% of men. This makes it the sport
women are third most likely to think they could qualify for (after shooting
and archery).
(YouGov UK) 10 August, 2024
858-860-43-09/Polls Six In Ten Britons Support GB Energy In Principle, With The
Public Highly Supportive Of Expanding Renewable Energy Production
One of Labour’s flagship
policies at the election was the establishment of GB Energy, a publicly-owned
company that would generate renewable energy. Under energy secretary Ed
Miliband, the new government last month began the process of putting their
plans into practice – announcing a partnership with the Crown Estate to
allow the construction of new offshore wind turbines. This should be an early
easy win for the government, with the principle behind GB Energy – of a
government-owned renewable energy generation company – being supported by six
in ten Britons (62%) and opposed by only one in six (17%). This notably
includes support from 59% of Conservative voters, half of Reform UK voters
(49%), as well as around three-quarters of Labour and Lib Dem voters
(74-77%).
However, a hypothetical
alternative that both generated energy and sold it directly to consumers
holds an even higher level of support – seven in ten Britons (72%) favouring
an integrated government-owned energy company, with just one in eleven (9%)
opposed to the idea. The British public
similarly believe this generator-supplier would be more likely to cut energy
bills than a GB Energy-style entity. While the public are split on whether
something like GB Energy as currently envisioned would bring down energy
prices – 29% expecting it would lead to a decrease in bills, 28% an increase
and 24% no difference – four in ten Britons (41%) believe a combined producer
and retailer would cut bills, with only one in five (21%) expecting such a
body to increase energy costs for consumers.
This speaks to a problem
in the perception of what GB Energy is. When asking about a GB Energy-style
company in vaguer terms, without the explanation of the distinction between a
generator and a retailer, public support (70%) is closer to the hypothetical
integrated entity (72%) than it is to the government’s actual proposals for
GB Energy (62%), with Britons also more likely to expect it to lead to a
decrease in energy bills (52%).
Although it is clear that
the majority of the public support the broad concept of a government-owned
energy company, this gap in public support suggests that the public might not
be getting out of GB Energy what they necessarily expect from it. Britons
aren’t just positive towards renewables in principle, but want more of them
too But regardless about what
the public think GB Energy actually is, a key determinant of its success will
be its ability to expand renewable energy production in the UK. Clear majorities favour
Britain getting more of its power from renewable sources, with solar and
tidal energy receiving the greatest backing, at 74%. No more than one in ten
want a reduction in any kind of renewable energy generation; onshore wind has
the most detractors, but even then, only 10% of Britons want less power
generated by it.
For the public, the era of
fossil fuels should be over, or at least coming to an end. A majority of
Britons (51%) want less of the UK’s energy to come from natural gas, with six
in ten (62%) wanting a reduction in the amount of energy derived from shale gas
and oil, rising to 68% when coming to coal power (a wish that is expected to
somewhat come true by the end of next month with the closure of the UK’s last
coal power station). Nuclear energy manages to be somewhat more divisive,
evenly splitting Britons, with 30% wanting more electricity generated by
nuclear power and 31% wanting less. Of course, it's possible
to increase renewable energy production without increasing the supporting
infrastructure, the construction of which will be central to GB Energy’s
push. In principle, the British
public are again positive in their support for renewable energy. Eight in ten
Britons (80-81%) support an increase in the construction of offshore wind
turbines and solar panel farms, with clear support for building more hydro-electric
dams (76%) and onshore wind farms (74%) too. While more of an unknown,
two-thirds (66%) also favour constructing new bio-fuel refineries.
Britons are likewise
consistent in their opposition to expanding fossil fuels – majorities oppose
building new gas power stations (59%), shale gas wells (63%) and coal power
stations (71%) – while being split 43% to 41% on the construction of new
nuclear power stations. As with any form of
proposed construction, there’s a little bit of a catch – the British public
are more likely to support building in
principle compared to locally.
Across the nine types of energy infrastructure polled, Britons were
consistently less likely to support it being built locally – with the gap
varying from three points less support for shale gas wells near them to 11
points lower support for a nearby nuclear power station. Nonetheless, the green
energy vs fossil fuels divide remains, with the majority of the public still
saying they were in favour of any kind of renewable energy infrastructure
being built in their local area – including more than two-thirds in favour of
onshore wind turbines being built close by (68%) and three-quarters (75%)
supporting a local solar farm.
There are, of course, some
issues of practicality – two-thirds of Britons (66%) say they would support a
hydro-electric dam in their local area, with 73% saying they would be
likewise pro building an offshore windfarm near them. Needless to say,
building those forms of infrastructure would not be possible near where those
proportions of Britons live. Public
overwhelmingly more favourable towards renewables than fossil fuels But how surprising should
any of this positivity to expanding green energy production be? Britons have
overwhelmingly positive views of all methods of renewable energy generation,
with at least around three-quarters of the public having favourable views of
all renewable methods we polled, compared to a majority holding an
unfavourable view of all major fossil fuels. Solar power is the most
positively viewed electricity generation method, with 86% of Britons having a
favourable view, though tidal energy, offshore wind and hydro-electric power
are not far behind, on 82-84%. Onshore wind, bio-fuels and geothermal energy
are all favourably viewed by around three in four Britons (74-77%).
While none are popular,
natural gas is the least unpopular of the fossil fuels polled, with 37% of
Britons having a favourable view compared to 50% an unfavourable one. The
more specific shale gas, however, is only half as popular, commanding a
positive view among less than one in six members of the public (15%), the
lowest ‘favourable’ figure for any energy source. However, coal is the most
actively disliked overall, with 70% having an unfavourable view. As with most things, there
is a degree of party-political differences in how Britons view these
differing methods of energy generation, but the gaps are not especially
significant when it comes to renewables. Excluding onshore wind, where there
is a little bit of a split, at least seven in ten of all voter groups hold a
positive view of the renewable energy methods we polled. Labour, Lib Dem and Green
voters tend to be most positive towards renewable energies, but Tory views
are rarely particularly far behind. Reform UK voters are consistently the
least favourable towards renewable energies, but even with the type they view
least positively – onshore wind – six in ten (61%) still hold a positive
view. In short, renewable energy methods are popular across the board.
Fossil fuels, though, are
more divisive. While near uniformly unpopular among Labour, Lib Dem and Green
voters, Conservative and particularly Reform UK supporters are more
favourable towards non-renewable energies. More than a third of Reform voters
hold a favourable view of shale gas (36%) and coal (42%), with a small
majority (54%) positive towards oil and two-thirds (66%) favourable to
natural gas. Nearly six in ten (58%) Conservatives similarly feel favourably
towards gas. But it is nuclear energy
that most consistently splits parties down the middle. All five main UK
parties have a significant contingent of pro- and anti-nuclear supporters.
Nearly six in ten (57-58%) Conservative and Reform voters hold a favourable
view, with three in ten (31%) holding an unfavourable view. Labour and the
Lib Dems are more evenly split – Lib Dem voters dividing 48% to 44% in
favour, Labour 46% to 43% against. Perhaps unsurprisingly given their
long-standing connections to the anti-nuclear movement, the most opposition
to nuclear energy is found among Greens, with 55% holding an unfavourable
view, even if a bit more than one in three (37%) are positive. (YouGov UK) 12 August, 2024 Source:
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/50249-how-do-britons-feel-about-expanding-renewable-energy
858-860-43-10/Polls Britons More Favourable Towards Kamala Harris Than Joe
Biden Or Donald Trump – But Half Believe Trump Will Win
New exclusive polling by
Ipsos for the Evening Standard, taken July 24-25, has found that the British
public are more favourable towards Kamala Harris than either Joe Biden or
Donald Trump. 34% have a favourable opinion of the Vice President, compared
with 26% for Biden and 24% for Trump.
Similarly, 47% of Britons
believe that Harris being elected is in the best interests of the UK - up
from 39% when asked about Biden in May. Just two in ten (20%) say that a
Trump victory is in the best interests of the UK. Half of Britons (50%)
would prefer a Harris presidency, compared to 21% who would prefer a second
Trump administration. Those who voted Labour on July 4th are more likely to
back Harris, with 72% preferring her versus 38% of those who voted
Conservative. However, half (49%) of Britons believe that Trump is most
likely to win the election – up from three in ten (30%) in May.
Our
polling suggests British people favour Kamala Harris over either Joe Biden or
Donald Trump. Almost half (46%) of Britons believe a Harris presidency would
have a positive impact on the UK’s relationship with the US - significantly
higher than the 27% who said the same about Biden in May. However, despite
the Democrat’s decision to change their candidate, there is a growing belief
among the British public that Trump will likely win the upcoming election.
This sentiment has risen since May, with half (50%) now believing Trump will
win, up from 30%. (Ipsos MORI) 01 August, 2024
858-860-43-11/Polls Three In Four Say Britain Is Divided, But Public Say
Problems Are Less Serious Than In The US
New Ipsos polling, taken
22-24 July (before recent events in Southport), examines attitudes towards
division and political violence in Great Britain, and whether levels of
concern are higher than in the United States. Political
division in Britain
Our
findings show strong levels of concern about Britain being divided and a
prevailing sense that things are worse than they used to be – with particular
concern about divisions between immigrants and those born in Britain.
However, the degree of concern overall is weaker than it has been, and the
British public appear less concerned than their American counterparts.
Though, it should be noted, these findings were taken before recent events,
so it is possible that things change in the coming weeks. (Ipsos MORI) 02 August, 2024
858-860-43-12/Polls James Cleverly Tops List Of Who Would Make A Good Tory
Leader – But 3 In 5 Britons Say They Don’t Care
New polling by Ipsos,
taken August 2-5, has examined attitudes towards the current race to become
leader of the Conservative party. Shadow Home Secretary
James Cleverly narrowly leads, with 18% of Britons believing he would do a
good job. Priti Patel and Tom Tugendhat follow close behind at 17% each.
However, 44% say that Priti Patel would do a bad job, giving her a net
approval rating of -27 – the lowest of any candidate.
James Cleverly and Priti
Patel are neck and neck among those who voted Conservative on July 4th, with
31% and 30%, respectively, believing they would do a good job. However, once
again Priti Patel is a much more polarising figure, with 27% saying she would
do a bad job (compared with 8% who say Cleverly would do a bad job). Tom
Tugendhat and Robert Jenrick follow closely behind, with 27% each saying they
would do a good job.
None of the candidates for
Conservative leader are well known by a majority of the British public at
this point. Priti Patel is the candidate people are most familiar with – 45%
say they know a great deal or a fair amount about her, followed by 26% for James
Cleverly and 24% for Kemi Badenoch. In this context, it is
perhaps unsurprising that one in four say they do not know who they would
prefer to be the next Conservative party leader. A further 34% say they
do not favour any of the current candidates. Further, 62% say they do not
personally care very much or at all who becomes the leader – including 36% of
Conservative voters. When asked what difference
endorsements from different political figures might make to the candidates’
chances, two thirds of Britons (65%) say that backing from Liz Truss would
give the candidate a worse chance of winning. This compares with 46% who say
that an endorsement from Nigel Farage would have a negative impact on a
candidate’s chances, and 44% for Boris Johnson. David Cameron is the only one
of the political figures asked about whose endorsement the public, on
balance, felt might have a positive impact (albeit only just – 32% said it
might make their chances better and 31% worse). Commenting on the
findings, Trinh Tu, UK Managing
Director, Public Affairs said: This
new poll suggests a high level of public apathy about the Conservative
leadership race. James Cleverly, Priti Patel, and Tom Tugendhat emerge as
early front runners, with former Home Secretary Priti Patel appearing to
be the most divisive figure. However, a significant portion of Britons are
unfamiliar with the main candidates and say they do not care very much about
who will emerge as the winner. (Ipsos MORI) 12 August, 2024 NORTH AMERICA
858-860-43-13/Polls 39% Of Americans Believe The 2024 Election Will Not Be
Conducted Fairly, 61 % Disagree
Americans are generally
confident that this fall’s presidential election will be conducted fairly and
accurately.
Yet Republicans and those
who lean toward the GOP are far less confident of this than Democrats and
Democratic leaners, according to a Pew Research Center survey conducted July
1-7, 2024. Overall, 61% of Americans
say they are very or somewhat confident the election will be conducted fairly
and accurately. These views have changed little since 2022 and 2020. The public is more
confident that all citizens who want to vote this fall will be able to. About
three-quarters of Americans (76%) say they are confident about this, a modest
increase since 2020. Partisan
differences in views of the way elections are conducted Between 2020 and 2022,
Democrats’ and Republicans’ views about the accuracy of elections shifted.
Today, partisan expectations about the 2024 presidential election are roughly
on par with views during the 2022 midterms.
Currently,
Democrats are 30 percentage points more likely than Republicans to express
confidence that the presidential election will be conducted fairly (77% vs.
47%). However, in April 2020, as the
coronavirus outbreak was spreading in the U.S., Republicans were more
confident than Democrats that the election would be conducted fairly and
accurately (75% vs. 46%). At that time, Democrats
were far more likely than Republicans to believe that the COVID-19 pandemic would disrupt voting. Eight-in-ten Democrats said this was
likely, compared with about half of Republicans. Over the same period, the
partisan gap in views of whether all citizens who want to vote in the
election will be able to has narrowed. This is almost entirely due to a
change in views among Democrats. In April 2020, 43% of
Democrats had confidence this would be the case. Today, 71% say this. Among
Republicans, roughly eight-in-ten or more have continued to say they are
confident that all citizens who want to vote will be able to. Intraparty
divides in views of election fairness Among
Democrats A majority of Democrats –
regardless of their age, race or ethnicity – say they have at least some
confidence that the election will be conducted fairly and accurately.
However, younger Democrats are somewhat less likely than their older
counterparts to say this. Two-thirds of Democrats
ages 18 to 29 are at least somewhat confident, compared with 87% of those 65
and older.
In addition, White
Democrats are far more likely than Black and Hispanic Democrats to say they
are confident the 2024 election will be conducted fairly and accurately. Among
Republicans Among Republicans, age
gaps in views of the election are modest. There are more pronounced
differences by race and ethnicity. White Republicans (45%)
are less likely than Black (62%), Asian (61%) and Hispanic (56%) Republicans
to say they are confident the election will be conducted fairly and
accurately. Intraparty
divides in views of voting accessibility Among
Democrats As with expectations that
the election will be conducted fairly and accurately, there are differences
by age, race and ethnicity in Democrats’ views of whether all citizens who
want to vote in the election will be able to.
Democrats ages 50 and
older are more likely than those under 50 to say they are confident in this
(77% vs. 66%). Black Democrats are less
likely than White and Hispanic Democrats to say they are confident that all
citizens who want to vote in the election will be able to. Among Republicans Republicans ages 50 and
older are slightly more likely than those under 50 to say they are confident
that all citizens who want to vote in the election will be able to. But there are much wider
divisions by race and ethnicity. Black Republicans (65%) are far less likely
than White (85%), Hispanic (85%) and Asian Republicans (78%) to say they are
confident that all citizens who want to vote will be able to. (PEW) 01 August, 2024
858-860-43-14/Polls Majority Of Americans Support More Nuclear Power In The
Country
A majority of U.S. adults
remain supportive of expanding nuclear power in the country, according
to a Pew Research Center survey from May. Overall, 56% say they favor more nuclear
power plants to generate electricity. This share is statistically unchanged
from last year.
But the future of large-scale nuclear power in America is uncertain. While Congress recently passed a bipartisan act intended to ease the nuclear energy
industry’s financial and regulatory challenges, reactor shutdowns continue to
gradually outpace new construction. Americans remain more
likely to favor expanding solar power (78%) and wind power (72%) than nuclear
power. Yet while support for solar and wind power has declined by double
digits since 2020 – largely driven by drops in Republican
support – the share
who favor nuclear power has grown by 13 percentage points over that span. When asked about the
federal government’s role in encouraging the production of nuclear energy,
Americans are somewhat split. On balance, more say the government should
encourage (41%) than discourage (22%) this. But 36% say the government should
not exert influence either way, according to a March 2023 Center survey. Views
by gender Attitudes on nuclear power
production have long differed by gender. In the May survey, men
remain far more likely than women to favor more nuclear power plants to
generate electricity in the United States (70% vs. 44%). This pattern holds
true among adults in both political parties. Views on nuclear energy
differ by gender globally, too, according to a Center survey conducted from fall 2019 to
spring 2020. In 18 of the
20 places surveyed around the world (including the U.S.), men were more
likely than women to favor using more nuclear power as a source of domestic
energy. Views
by party
Republicans are more
likely than Democrats to favor expanding nuclear power to generate
electricity in the U.S. Two-thirds of Republicans and Republican-leaning
independents say they support this, compared with about half of Democrats and
Democratic leaners. Republicans have supported
nuclear power in greater shares than Democrats each time this question has
been asked since 2016. The partisan gap in
support for nuclear power (18 points) is smaller than those for other types
of energy, including fossil fuel sources such as coal mining (48 points) and
offshore oil and gas drilling (47 points). Still, Americans in both
parties now see nuclear power more positively than they did earlier this
decade. While Democrats remain divided on the topic (49% support, 49%
oppose), the share who favor expanding the energy source is up 12 points
since 2020. Republican support has grown by 14 points over this period. While younger Republicans
generally tend to be more supportive of increasing domestic renewable energy
sources than their
older peers, the pattern reverses when it comes to nuclear energy. For
example, Republicans under 30 are much more likely than those ages 65 and
older to favor more solar panel farms in the U.S. (80% vs. 54%); there’s a
similar gap over expanding wind power. But when it comes to expanding nuclear
power, Republicans under 30 are 11 points less likely than the oldest Republicans to express
support (61% vs. 72%). A
look at U.S. nuclear power reactors
The U.S. currently
has 94 nuclear power reactors, including one that just began operating in Georgia this spring. Reactors
collectively generated 18.6% of all U.S. electricity in 2023, according to the U.S. Energy Information
Administration. About half of the United
States’ nuclear power reactors (48) are in the South, while nearly a quarter
(22) are in the Midwest. There are 18 reactors in the Northeast and six in
the West, according to data from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The number of U.S.
reactors has steadily fallen since peaking at 111 in 1990. Nine Mile
Point-1, located in Scriba, New York, is the oldest U.S. nuclear power
reactor still in operation. It first connected to the power grid in November
1969. Most of the 94 current reactors began operations in the 1970s (41) or
1980s (44), according to IAEA data. (The IAEA classifies reactors as
“operational” from their first electrical grid connection to their date of
permanent shutdown.) Within the last decade,
just three new reactors joined the power fleet. Three times as many shut down
over the same timespan. One of the many reasons
nuclear power projects have dwindled in recent decades may be the perceived
dangers following nuclear accidents in the U.S. and abroad. For example,
the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi accident led the Japanese government to
greatly decrease its reliance on nuclear power and prompted other countries
to rethink their nuclear energy plans. High construction costs and radioactive waste storage issues are also oft-cited hurdles to nuclear
energy advancement. Still, many advocates say
that nuclear power is key to reducing emissions from electricity generation. There’s
been a recent flurry of interest in reviving decommissioned nuclear
power sites, including the infamous Three Mile Island plant and the Palisades plant, the latter of which shuttered in 2022.
Last year, California announced it would delay the retirement of its one remaining
nuclear power plant until
2030. And just this summer, construction began on a new plant in Wyoming. It’s set to house an
advanced sodium-cooled fast reactor, pending approval from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. (PEW) 05 August, 2024
858-860-43-15/Polls Eggs, Gasoline And Car Insurance: Where Inflation Has Hit
Americans Hardest
As the U.S. economy began
recovering from coronavirus-related shortages and shutdowns, consumer prices
surged faster than they had in more than four decades. Many Americans
currently see inflation as one of the nation’s top problems. The government gauges inflation
mainly by looking at the prices of a “market basket” of more than 200 goods
and services and evaluating how they’ve changed over time. Several inflation
measures are based on this price data, but the most widely cited is the
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U). Since the start of
2020, that measure topped out at 9.1% in June 2022 – the fastest
year-over-year increase since November 1981. Since the June 2022 peak,
inflation has abated considerably. The CPI-U in June 2024 was just 3.0%,
closer to the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target. That’s led to increased speculation that
the Fed may start cutting interest rates soon. But that doesn’t necessarily mean prices are going back down – just that they’re rising more
slowly than they had been. Most things cost considerably more than they did
before the COVID-19 pandemic. And the focus on the topline number can
obscure the reality that inflation for individual
items can be considerably above – or below – the “official”
rate. With all that in mind, we
wanted to take a closer look at the CPI-U, and at the 200-plus products and
services that go into that headline inflation number. Which
goods and services have gotten more – or less – expensive in recent years? Overall, the June 2024
CPI-U was 21.8% above its level in January 2020, before the pandemic really
began to hit the United States. But the costs of many products and services
have risen much more than that.
Topping the list:
margarine, which as of June is 56.8% pricier than in January 2020. Other
notable increases include motor vehicle repair services (up 47.5%), motor
vehicle insurance (47.3%) and veterinarian services (35.6%). On the other hand, some
goods and services cost less now
than before the pandemic. For example, men’s suits, sport coats and outerwear
are 6.3% cheaper than in January 2020. And dishes and flatware are down 9.9%. Many of the items with the
biggest price declines are related to computers, smartphones or other
technologies. In these and other cases, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
– which puts together the CPI-U and related indices – adjusts the raw price
data it collects to account for product improvements or other changes in quality over time. In 2007, for example,
the first-generation iPhone from Apple cost
$499 (or $599 for the
8-gigabyte version) and came without many features that users today take for granted.
Today, the 128-gigabyte base version of the iPhone 15, which is far more
powerful and functional, retails for $799. Other smartphones have seen
similar quality leaps over time. The price index for
smartphones has fallen 53.9% between January 2020 and June 2024. That
essentially means that buying a smartphone today with the functionality that
was typical in early 2020 would cost you less than half what it would have
then. What
items carry the most weight in the CPI-U? The hundreds of goods and
services in the CPI-U aren’t all given equal weight when calculating the
index. Instead, the BLS weights each item to reflect its share of overall
consumer purchases. The biggest item in the
CPI-U, accounting for about a quarter of the entire index as of May 2024, is
“owner’s equivalent rent of a primary residence” (OER). This arcane-sounding
term basically estimates how much it would cost to rent out an owned home. It’s an attempt to separate a house’s
value as shelter (which
is treated as a service in the CPI-U) from its value as an investment (the increase in its
market value over time), since investments aren’t included in the CPI-U. OER inflation peaked at
8.1% in spring 2023 and still came in at 5.4% in June 2024. Overall, OER
prices are 23.8% above their January 2020 level – just a hair below rental
inflation, which is up 24.0%. Rental prices are the second-biggest factor in
the CPI-U at about 7.6% of the total index.
For many items, prices
tend to rise or fall gradually, or at best, level off. Bread prices, for
instance, seldom changed by more than a few percentage points annually from
2014 until early 2020 – though they jumped in 2022. But some items are far
more volatile, with unpredictable surges and steep declines. Gasoline, the
third-biggest contributor to the CPI-U at about 3.6% of the index, is a prime
example. Pump prices fluctuate based on the time of year, geopolitical events, refinery operations and a host of other factors. Overall, the price index
for all grades of gasoline was 35.9% higher in June 2024 than it was in
January 2020. But that hides considerable volatility. From January 2020 to
June 2022, gas prices nearly doubled (an 89.5% increase), but since then,
they’ve fallen 28.3%. In fact, for all of its ups and downs, the average
nationwide gas price at the end of July 2024 ($3.598 a gallon) was about what
it was in early August 2014 ($3.595), according to data from the U.S. Energy Information
Administration. Which
items have seen particularly sharp price spikes since 2020? The 89.5% run-up on
gasoline of all grades was almost the
biggest of the pandemic period. But the price index for fuel oils (such as
home heating oil) rose slightly more – 91.0% – between January 2020 and June
2022 before dropping. As of this June, fuel oil prices were 22.2% above their
January 2020 levels. The product with the
sharpest (but short-lived) price spike over the past few years has been the
humble egg. Egg prices peaked in January 2023 at 94.0% above the January 2020
baseline. Even though prices have fallen since, eggs still are about 40.1%
more expensive than they were before the pandemic. (PEW) 07 August, 2024
858-860-43-16/Polls Harris Energizes Democrats In Transformed Presidential Race
Buoyed by growing
Democratic enthusiasm, Vice President Kamala Harris is now in a virtual tie
with former President Donald Trump in the presidential race.
Among registered voters nationally,
46% say if the election were held today, they would support Harris, while 45%
favor Trump and 7% back Robert F. Kennedy Jr. A month ago, Trump held a 4 percentage point lead over
Joe Biden (44% vs. 40%), who withdrew from the presidential race on July 21. Most of Harris’ gains have
come at the expense of Kennedy, whose support has declined by roughly half in
the past month, from 15% to 7%. Yet there are clear signs that Harris has
energized Democratic voters, according to a new Pew Research Center survey conducted
Aug. 5-11 among 9,201 U.S. adults, including 7,569 registered voters. Harris’
strong support is on par with Trump’s. Among
Harris’ supporters, 62% say they support her strongly, while 64% of Trump’s supporters back him
strongly. Last month, just 43% of Biden supporters backed him strongly,
compared with 63% of Trump supporters who supported the former president
strongly. Both
candidates’ supporters are motivated to vote this fall. Following
the stunning events of the past month – including Biden’s withdrawal and the
assassination attempt against Trump – supporters of both candidates are
increasingly motivated to cast ballots this fall:
Jump
to Chapter
1 for more on voters’ views of the presidential
race. Harris
performs better than Biden did across most demographic groups. While
many of the demographic patterns in vote preferences echo the Biden-Trump
matchup from July, Harris’ gains have been particularly pronounced among some
traditionally Democratic-leaning groups. Among voters under 50, Harris’
support is 9 percentage points higher than Biden’s was in July. And among
Black, Asian and Hispanic voters, Harris’ support is up at least 10 points
compared with Biden’s. For
more on voting preferences among demographic groups, visit the detailed
tables.
Most
Democrats are “happy” Harris is the Democratic candidate. Nearly
nine-in-ten Democratic and Democratic-leaning registered voters (88%) say
they are happy that Harris is the Democratic candidate for president in
November. Close to half (48%) say they are very happy that Harris is the party’s candidate. Other
findings: Both Harris and Trump are viewed more favorably than a few months
ago Harris’
favorability rises sharply among Democrats Both Harris and Trump are
viewed more favorably than they were in May, with virtually all of the gains
coming from members of their own party. Since then, Harris’ favorable rating
has increased 8 points among all adults (from 36% to 44%), with an 18-point
rise among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents (from 65% to 83%). Trump’s favorability is up
more modestly overall, from 39% to 42%. About eight-in-ten Republicans and
Republican leaners (79%) now view him favorably, up 5 points since May. ‘Double
negatives’ decline In May, with Biden still
in the race, a quarter of Americans had unfavorable opinions of both him and
Trump. That was the highest share expressing negative views of both
candidates in surveys dating back to the 1988
presidential election.
Today, however, the share of these “double negatives” has fallen to 14%. (PEW) 14 August, 2024
858-860-43-17/Polls Cigarette Smoking Rate In U.S. Ties 80-Year Low
Cigarette smoking in the
U.S. is at a low point, according to eight decades of Gallup trends.
Currently, 11% of U.S. adults say they have smoked cigarettes in the past
week, matching the historical low measured in 2022 (and nearly matched at 12%
in 2023). When Gallup first asked about cigarette smoking in 1944, 41% of
U.S. adults said they smoked. The current smoking rate is about half as large
as it was a decade ago and one-third as large as it was in the late 1980s.
The latest results are
based on Gallup’s annual Consumption Habits poll, conducted July 1-21.
Between the initial measurement of smoking in 1944 and 1974, at least four in
10 adults said they smoked cigarettes. Now, barely one in 10 do. A major reason for the
decline is that cigarette smoking has plummeted among young adults, who typically had been the most likely
age group to smoke. Over the past three years, an average of 6% of adults
under age 30 say they have smoked cigarettes in the past week, compared with
35% of young adults in 2001 through 2003 surveys. Young adults are now less
likely than other age groups to smoke cigarettes, as 13% of those between the
ages of 30 and 49, 18% of those aged 50 to 64 and 9% of those 65 and older
say they smoke. Smoking continues to show
a relationship to educational attainment, as 5% of college graduates and 15%
of those without a college degree say they have smoked cigarettes, based on
combined 2022-2024 data. The rates for both groups are significantly lower than
in the past -- between 2001 and 2003, an average of 14% of college graduates
and 30% of college nongraduates reported smoking. Younger
Adults More Likely to Smoke E-Cigarettes Vaping is less common than
cigarette smoking, with 7% of U.S. adults saying they have smoked electronic
cigarettes or “vaped” in the past week. The percentage of vapers has been
steady between 6% and 8% of U.S. adults in Gallup polls since 2019. While young adults are now
the age group least likely to smoke cigarettes, they are the group most
likely to smoke e-cigarettes, according to combined 2022-2024 data. Eighteen
percent of adults aged 18 to 29 vape, with the percentage declining among
older age groups, down to 1% of those 65 and older.
There are small
educational differences in vaping, with 5% of college graduates versus 9% of
college nongraduates using e-cigarettes. Most
Americans View Cigarettes, E-Cigarettes as Very Harmful The generally low rates of
cigarette and e-cigarette usage may stem from the perception that these
products can cause harm. Seventy-nine percent of U.S. adults say cigarettes
are “very harmful” to people who use them; 57% say the same about
e-cigarettes. A majority of U.S. adults
also consider chewing tobacco to be “very harmful” to its users, though fewer
say this about cigars, pipes or nicotine pouches. Still, majorities of at
least seven in 10 Americans believe all of these substances are at least “somewhat
harmful.”
Americans who smoke are
less inclined than nonsmokers to consider the substance they use as harmful.
While 58% of cigarette smokers think cigarettes are very harmful, 80% of
those who do not smoke cigarettes hold this view. And 63% of vapers think
e-cigarettes are very harmful, compared with 79% of nonvapers. There are not notable
differences in perceived harm of cigarettes or e-cigarettes by age or
educational attainment. Bottom
Line Medical experts have long
warned of the health dangers of smoking, and those educational efforts may be
a factor in explaining why cigarette smoking is at an 80-year low. The most
recent cohort of young adults are responsible for much of the change. They
have bucked the historical trends whereby young adults have been most likely
to smoke cigarettes. However, today’s young
adults may have substituted e-cigarettes for tobacco cigarettes, as roughly
three times as many young adults vape as smoke cigarettes. Still, vaping
rates among this group are lower than cigarette-smoking rates of young adults
in the past. Fewer U.S. adults vape
than smoke cigarettes today, but if current age trends persist -- meaning
today’s young adults continue to vape as they reach middle age, and today’s
children vape at high rates when they reach adulthood -- vaping may soon
surpass cigarette smoking as the more common activity. While vaping presents
fewer health risks than tobacco smoking, public health officials would still
prefer that U.S. adults not do either. (Gallup) 13 August, 2024 Source:
https://news.gallup.com/poll/648521/cigarette-smoking-rate-ties-year-low.aspx
858-860-43-18/Polls The AI Revolution: As Many As One in Three (33%) Canadians
Already Embracing AI for Financial Management
The artificial
intelligence (AI) revolution might have just arrived, with a new Ipsos poll
conducted on behalf of BMO finding that as many as one in three (33%)
Canadians are already using AI to manage their finances, including a majority
(55%) of Gen Z. More than half (54%) of Canadians are using AI to ask general
questions about topics of interest, while significant proportions are using
it to assist with the development of written drafts (41%), photo and/or video
editing (39%), data analysis (37%), schedule management (36%), and/or plan
building (36%).
Gen
Z Lead as AI Adopters The vast majority of Gen Z
admit at least some anxiety regarding their overall financial situation
(91%), housing costs (86%), keeping up with monthly bills (82%), and/or the
prospect of unknown expenses (90%). The survey offers some evidence
suggesting that Gen Z thinks AI might be able to help mitigate some of these
concerns, as three-fifths (61%) within this generation believe AI can help
people make more informed financial decisions whereas a majority (53%)
express confidence that AI tools can help them make real financial progress. (Ipsos Canada) 30 July, 2024 Source:
https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/33-percent-of-canadians-already-embracing-ai-financial-management
858-860-43-19/Polls Eight In Ten Canadians Worried About Household Food Waste
Eight in ten (77%)
Canadians who use food-storage products agree that reducing their household’s
food waste is important to them, according to a new Ipsos poll conducted for
FoodSaver® and Newell Brands. Concerns appear to be driven both by financial
concerns as well as environmental factors.
(Ipsos Canada) 13 August, 2024 Source:
https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/eight-in-ten-canadians-worried-about-household-food-waste AUSTRALIA
858-860-43-20/Polls ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Up 2.6pts To 83.9 After
The RBA Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged Again
ANZ-Roy
Morgan Consumer Confidence increased 2.6pts to 83.9 this week after the
Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates unchanged for a sixth straight
meeting last Tuesday. However, despite the improvement, looking longer-term
the index has now spent a record 80 straight weeks below the mark of 85.
Consumer Confidence is a now 5.7 points above the same week a year ago,
August 7-13, 2023 (78.2), and is now 3.1 points above the 2024 weekly average
of 81.8. A look at Consumer
Confidence by State shows the index increasing in most States including
Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia, but down
slightly in New South Wales. The driver of this week’s
increase was increasing confidence about personal finances – especially as it
relates to comparisons to a year ago which recorded its best net result for
over 18 months since January 2023 including the highest proportion of Australians
saying they are ‘better off’ financially than a year ago since November 2022. Current
financial conditions
Future
financial conditions
Short-term
economic confidence
Medium-term
economic confidence
Time
to buy a major household item
ANZ
Economist, Madeline Dunk, commented: ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian
Consumer Confidence rose 2.6pts last week, pushing the four-week moving
average to a six-month high of 83.2pts. All of the subindices improved, but
there was a particularly big jump in household’s confidence in their current
financial conditions. The subindex lifted 7.1pts, recording its largest
weekly rise since late last year. This takes the four-week moving average to
its highest level since March 2023. The rise may be linked to the RBA’s
decision to keep rates on hold last week. It is also possible that households
are starting to feel the positive impact of the Stage 3 tax cuts on their
finances. Notably, the four-week moving average for the ‘time to buy a major
household item’ subindex recorded its second highest reading since February
2023.
(Roy Morgan) 13 August, 2024 Source:
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9545-anz-roy-morgan-consumer-confidence-august-13 MULTICOUNTRY STUDIES
858-860-43-21/Polls Iran’s Position On Palestine Is Not
Enough To Win The Favor Of The Citizens Of 7 MENA Countries
During his speech to U.S. Congress in late July,
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s comments conflating support for
Palestine with blind allegiance to Iran were not just factually
unsubstantiated. They were also built on a faulty and falsifiable
assumption: that the convergence of stances on Palestine automatically
implied a causal relationship between the actions of citizens protesters on
the one hand and Iranian foreign policy on the other. Instead, Arab Barometer’s latest 2024 data suggest
that opposing Israel’s war on Gaza and opposing Iran and its regional
proxies’ and allies’ policies in the region are not mutually exclusive
positions. Citizens in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) are more
nuanced and parsimonious in their opinions: the whole of their views sums
much more than just Tehran’s positions on Palestine. Moreover, Netanyahu’s dismissal of expressed
opposition as “bought and paid for” to delegitimize it underscores the double
standards of “free” speech that have plagued the discourse surrounding the
war in Gaza over the past nine months. Unequivocally equating protest with
propaganda implies that any criticism of Israel can only be the product of
coercion or cooptation. This line of reasoning sounds eerily similar to the
statements made by MENA autocrats, who, at the height of Arab Spring,
dismissed protesters calling for freedom, dignity, and justice as “foreign
agents” or “terrorists.” To MENA citizens, Netanyahu’s refrain is not
new and perhaps no less trite than Iran’s leveraging of the Palestinian cause
in its vie for regional influence. Israel’s latest war in Gaza reignited public outcry
in the region. Arab Barometer survey results reveal that majorities of
citizens deem Israel’s blockade of Gaza since 2007, its most recent bombing
and assault on infrastructure there, and forced displacement of Gazans as
acts of terrorism. And from a list of terms that included war, mass killing,
conflict, ethnic cleansing, hostilities, and massacre, the greatest number of
citizens in Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, and Mauritania see Israel’s actions as a
genocide. Unsurprisingly, support for normalizing relations with Israel
ranges from just three percent in Jordan to at most 13 percent in Morocco.
Despite ire
with American policy stances towards the war in Gaza, pluralities of
citizens in most countries believe that Palestine should be the Biden
administration’s top priority. Yet, as impartial a broker as the United
States is seen, the percentage of citizens who said it was suited to mediate
a fair political solution to both Palestinians and Israelis surpasses the
percentage who said the same about Iran (with the exception of Morocco).
Overall, favorability of Iran is low across surveyed
countries. A minority of citizens in each Lebanon (36 percent), Palestine (28
percent), Jordan (25 percent), and Kuwait (15 percent) have a very or
somewhat favorable view of the country. And equally small shares have
positive assessments of the foreign policy of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei,
ranging from just nine percent in Kuwait and maxing out at 32 percent in each
Lebanon and Tunisia. In all surveyed countries save Lebanon, the only leaders
whose policies are less favored than Khamenei’s are variously American
President Joseph Biden and/or Syrian President Bashar Assad.
While Palestine figures frequently and prominently
in Iran’s political rhetoric and strategy in its vie for regional influence,
Tehran’s pursuits and policies in the region are not ones that citizens
throughout the region view positively. Just under half of all citizens in
Palestine (47 percent) and Morocco (46 percent) and more than half in Jordan
(57 percent), Lebanon (56 percent), Kuwait (56 percent), and Tunisia (54
percent) believe than Iran’s political influence in the region represents a
critical threat to their national security interests. And half or more
citizens in all countries but Mauritania say the same about Iran’s nuclear
program. In Kuwait, the share of citizens saying Iran’s nuclear program
represents a critical threat (80 percent) is nearly identical to the share
saying the same of Israel’s occupation of the Palestinian territories (83
percent).
And when it comes to Tehran’s allies and proxies,
MENA publics are equally skeptical. They are mostly critical
of Russia, and they overwhelmingly disapprove of Syrian President Bashar
Assad. Iran’s proxy Hezbollah, which even inside Lebanon only
enjoys strong support among the Shiite community, historically has
not been seen as a force for good in the region. Data from Arab Barometer
Wave VII (2022-2023) revealed that few citizens in Sudan (30 percent),
Lebanon (24 percent), Mauritania (23 percent), Iraq (16 percent), and Jordan
(six percent) agreed with the statement, “It is good for the Arab region that
Hezbollah is getting involved in regional politics.” Ultimately, for it to have worked, Netanyahu’s
strategy to delegitimize critics of Israel by painting them as Iranian
stooges would have required these critics to not also be critical of Iran. In
this, MENA publics seem to have beaten him to the punch line. (Arabbarometer) 31 July, 2024 858-860-43-22/Polls Keeping Up With The People’s
Agenda: Popular Priorities For Government Action In 39 Countries, And How
They Are Evolving
Agenda setting is a key function of governments.
Whenever resources are limited – i.e. always – governments must set
priorities before they leap into policy action. But agendas can be set
in many ways. They can follow the whims of leaders. They can be shaped
by lobbyists or other proponents or beneficiaries of particular courses
of action. In Africa, agenda setting has often been contested, with
many complaining that priorities are driven by external actors such as
international financial institutions or bilateral or global
patrons. Since 2000, the United Nations has collectively
played a more prominent role, initially through eight Millennium
Development Goals (MDGs) that fundamentally shaped the international
development discourse from 2000 to 2015. The MDGs were followed by the
17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for 2015-2030 (United Nations,
2024). Also in 2015, the African Union adopted “Agenda 2063: The Africa
We Want,” reflecting significant progress in bringing the
agenda-setting prerogative back onto the African continent (African
Union, 2015). However, it is no secret that Agenda 2063 is a broad
and ambitious plan. With 20 goals and 39 “priority areas,” trying to
implement all of it would likely overwhelm the capabilities of even the
most well-resourced government. Agenda 2063 establishes a useful
development framework for the continent, but individual countries still
have a lot of work to do to identify their own specific
priorities. While governments can turn to varied sources of
data, insight, and information in setting their priorities, Afrobarometer has
long argued that a critical place to start should be understanding
citizens’ priorities. That is why Afrobarometer has been capturing data
on popular priorities since its inception in 1999, meaning we have up
to 25 years of data on the public’s agenda in some countries, and at
least 10 years of data in 30 countries. Every Afrobarometer survey asks
people what they think the most important issues are that their
government should address, and accepts up to three responses per person. We
then code respondents’ open-ended answers into roughly three dozen
policy sectors. This report presents findings on the popular agenda
from our recent Round 9 surveys, conducted in 39 countries between late
2021 and mid-2023, and tracks how priorities have evolved over time
across 30 countries where we have data since Round 5 (2011/2013). We
report the findings from several perspectives: 1) continent-wide priorities
and how they have shifted over time; 2) how priorities differ across
socio-demographic groups (based on age, gender, urban-rural location,
education, and economic status); and 3) priorities at the country level
and how they have evolved over time. The key findings are summarised
below and illustrated in the extensive charts and tables that
follow. Key findings
(Afrobarometer) 09 August, 2024 |
