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BUSINESS
& POLITICS IN THE WORLD GLOBAL
OPINION REPORT NO. 848-857 Week: May 20 – July 28,
2024 Presentation: August 02,
2024 Surveys Show Chinese Economy Growing But
At Modest Pace Japan Atomic Power Should Decommission
Tsuruga Reactor Kuwait’s Suspended Parliament: Where Does
The Public Stand? Iranians’ Attitudes Toward The 2024 Snap
Presidential Election Amid War In Gaza, 58% Of Israelis Say
Their Country Is Not Respected Internationally Israelis Are More Pessimistic Than
Optimistic About The Future Of Their Political System Amid Adaptations To Changes In Weather,
Ugandans Call For Collective Climate Action Seychellois Want More Government Action To
Curb The Country’s Drug Epidemic Emaswati Support Media’s Watchdog Role,
Insist On Media Freedom Emaswati Applaud Government’s Provision Of
Electricity, Though Reliability Issues Remain When Did Britons Make Up Their Minds How
They Would Vote At The 2024 General Election? Are Britons Looking Forward To The Paris
Olympics? Voters Split On Future Leader Of The
Conservative Party And Reasons For Election Defeat 7 In 10 Britons Believe Immigrants Place
Extra Pressure On The NHS Most Spaniards Think That AI Will Not
Replace Them At Work Slim Majority Of U.S. Adults Still Say
Changing Gender Is Morally Wrong In The UK, Dissatisfaction With Economy,
Democracy Is Widespread Ahead Of Election About 3 In 10 Americans Would Seriously
Consider Buying An Electric Vehicle Amid Doubts About Biden’s Mental
Sharpness, Trump Leads Presidential Race Joe Biden, Public Opinion And His
Withdrawal From The 2024 Race How Americans Get Local Political News Mortgage Stress Increased In June, But Set
To Ease In The Months Ahead After The Stage 3 Tax Cuts Varied Beliefs And Actions On Climate
Change In 39 Countries Global Attitudes To Refugees: A 52-Country
Survey From Ipsos And UNHCR Global Attitudes To Crime And Law
Enforcement, A Survey Across 31 Countries More People View The U.S. Positively Than
China Across 35 Surveyed Countries INTRODUCTORY NOTE 848-857-43-32/Commentary: Israelis Are
More Pessimistic Than Optimistic About The Future Of Their Political System
As the Israel-Hamas war
rages on, the shares of Israelis who see deep conflicts within their society have lessened
over the past year:
Research
in the West Bank and Gaza Pew Research Center has
polled the Palestinian territories in previous years, but in our 2024 survey,
we were unable to survey in Gaza or the West Bank due to security concerns.
We are actively investigating possible ways to conduct both qualitative and
quantitative research on public opinion in the region and will provide more
data as soon as we are able.
At the same time, Israeli public opinion has become more polarized in
other ways. For example, Arab Israelis and Jewish Israelis
have increasingly diverging views on key institutions – such as the military
– and on policy issues:
Views among those on the
ideological left and right have also diverged on some of these key issues
since we last asked about them. For example, 19% of those who place
themselves on the left trust the national government, compared with 75% of
those on the right – a difference of 56 percentage points. In 2017, the
difference was 43 points (26% on the left trusted the government, compared
with 69% of those on the right).
Against this
backdrop, Israelis are more
pessimistic (50%) than optimistic (35%) about the way their political system
works. And, whereas Arabs and Jews were about equally
pessimistic about the political system in 2019, Arabs have become more pessimistic (69%, up from 57%)
while Jews have become less so
(44%, down from 55%). Israelis
are also divided on the prospect of Arab and Jewish Israelis living together
peacefully, with equal shares saying they are
optimistic (37%) and pessimistic (37%) about this. About a quarter (23%) said
they are both, neither or that it depends. Still, Israelis are more
optimistic than pessimistic about the country’s national security and the
ability of religious and secular Israelis to live together peacefully. Related: Israeli
Views of the Israel-Hamas War These are among the key
findings of a survey of 1,001 Israelis, conducted via face-to-face interviews
from March 3 to April 4, 2024. Views
of political leaders
In March and early April,
attitudes toward Israel’s political leadership were largely negative. (The
survey took place before war cabinet member Benny Gantz resigned from the government and before Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu disbanded the emergency war cabinet.) At
the time of the survey, just one of the seven officials we asked about –
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant –
received favorable ratings from a clear majority of Israelis. Jewish and Arab Israelis
had very different views of the six other Israeli politicians we asked about.
The largest gaps were in evaluations of Gallant (Jews were 65 percentage
points more favorable than Arabs); Mansour Abbas, the leader of the United
Arab List, which is better known in Israel as Ra’am (-56); and Netanyahu
(+44). Only Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid was seen about equally favorably by
Jews and Arabs (37% vs. 41%). Ideological divides
between the right and left were also large – particularly when it came to
Netanyahu (those on the right were 61 points more favorable than those on the
left), Ben-Gvir (+54) and Smotrich (+54). (Read
more about views of Israeli leaders in Chapter
1, and
explore views of Palestinian leaders in our previous
report.) Violence
in the West Bank and East Jerusalem
Around two-thirds of
Israelis say they are extremely or very concerned about violence against Jews
in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. Around a third are similarly concerned
about violence against Arabs. But concerns differ dramatically by ethnicity:
Israeli
Jews are almost evenly split on whether they are optimistic (40%) or
pessimistic (44%) about the political system – though they are significantly
more optimistic than Israeli Arabs (15%). About seven-in-ten Arabs (69%) say
they are pessimistic about the future of the political system in Israel. People
on the right are also more optimistic (47%) than those in the center (25%) or
on the left (21%). Relatedly, Israelis with positive views of Netanyahu and
his governing coalition also express more optimism about the political system
in general than do those with unfavorable views. There are also ideological
differences, with left-leaning Israelis expressing much more concern than
right-leaning Israelis about violence against Arabs and much less concern
about violence against Jews. (PEW) 20 July, 2024 SUMMARY OF POLLS ASIA (China) Surveys Show Chinese Economy
Growing But At Modest Pace The China Federation of
Logistics and Purchasing’s official purchasing managers index, or PMI,
remained at 49.5, the same as in May, on a scale up to 100 where 50
marks the cut off for expansion. A private-sector survey released Monday by
the financial media group Caixin was ?more optimistic, edging up to 51.8 from
51.7 in the previous month. That was the fastest expansion of factory output
in two years, it said. Analysts had forecast that it would fall. (Asahi Shimbun) 02 July, 2024 (Japan) Japan Atomic Power Should
Decommission Tsuruga Reactor The Nuclear Regulation
Authority has determined that the No. 2 reactor of the Tsuruga Nuclear
Power Plant in Fukui Prefecture does not meet its safety standards. The
decision will block efforts to restart the idled reactor. At a July 26 review
meeting, the nuclear safety watchdog concluded that the possibility of
an active fault running directly beneath the containment building that houses
the Tsuruga No. 2 reactor cannot be ruled out. (Asahi Shimbun) 27 July, 2024 (Pakistan) Over A Quarter (27%) Of
Pakistanis Are Hopeful That Unemployment Will Decrease In The Next Six
Months, While Nearly Half (49%) Remain Pessimistic According to a survey
conducted by Gallup & Gilani Pakistan and Dun & Bradstreet Pakistan,
over a quarter (27%) of Pakistanis are hopeful that unemployment will
decrease in the next six months, while nearly half (49%) remain pessimistic.
To view the full Consumer Confidence Index for Q3 2023-24, click here. A
nationally representative sample of adult men and women from across the
country was asked the question, “In your opinion, compared to today, in the
next six months, how will the unemployment level change?” (Gallup Pakistan) 18 July, 2024 An Overwhelming Number Of
Pakistanis Would Not Accept A Bribe That They Could Easily Avoid Or Refuse
(91%) Compared To Those That Would Accept It (4%) According to a survey
conducted by Gallup & Gilani Pakistan, an overwhelming number of
Pakistanis would not accept a bribe that they could easily avoid or refuse
(91%) compared to those that would accept it (4%). There is a higher
prevalence to accept a bribe among relatively higher income groups, with 15%
of the ‘Rs. 200,001 to Rs. 500,000’ income group and 27% of the ‘More than Rs
500,000’ income group claiming they would accept a bribe. (Gallup Pakistan) 23 July, 2024 MENA (Kuwait) Kuwait’s Suspended Parliament:
Where Does The Public Stand? In a televised address on May 10, Kuwait’s Emir, Sheikh
Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah, firmly stated, “I will not let democracy
be exploited to destroy the state.” This address came as he dissolved the
National Assembly for the second time in three months and enacted temporary
suspensions of specific constitutional provisions for up to four years. We
asked a series of questions to probe Kuwaitis’ perspectives on the National
Assembly. Most notably, a striking 66 percent of Kuwaitis “strongly” or
“somewhat” agreed with the statement that the National Assembly slowed down the government. (Arabbarometer) 23 May, 2024 (Iran) Iranians’ Attitudes Toward The
2024 Snap Presidential Election Comparing the electoral
behavior of respondents in the previous elections (March 2024) with their
decision for the upcoming election shows that 85% of those who did not vote
in last year’s elections do not intend to participate in this year’s election
either. In contrast, 6% of those who did not vote in the previous elections
stated that they will vote in the presidential election. Also, 48% of
first-time voters (those who can vote for the first time in the presidential
election) do not intend to participate in the election, while about 34% of
them want to vote. 22 June, 2024 (Israel) Amid War In Gaza, 58% Of
Israelis Say Their Country Is Not Respected Internationally Even before a prosecutor
at the International Criminal Court called for the arrest of Israel’s prime
minister, Israelis were concerned about their
country’s global image. Nearly six-in-ten (58%) said in a poll this spring
that Israel is not respected around the world. A 58% majority of Israelis say
their country is not respected around the world, including 15% who say
it’s not at all respected.
A smaller share of Israelis (40%) say Israel is respected internationally,
including 9% who say it’s very respected. (PEW) 11 June, 2024 Israelis
Are More Pessimistic Than Optimistic About The Future Of Their Political
System Jewish Israelis trust the
national government to do what is right for Israel more than they did in 2017 (61%, up
from 53%). Arab Israelis trust it less (23%, down from 44%).93% of Jewish
Israelis think the military has a positive influence on the way things are
going in Israel, while just 34% of Arab Israelis agree. This gap has grown
significantly since we last asked the question in 2007, when 77% of Israeli
Jews and 57% of Israeli Arabs said the military’s influence was
positive. (Read more about confidence
in the government and institutions in Chapter
2.) (PEW) 20 July, 2024 AFRICA (Uganda) Amid Adaptations To Changes In
Weather, Ugandans Call For Collective Climate Action Africa is the continent
most vulnerable to climate change and its impacts, yet many African
countries remain unprepared to confront this threat (World Meteorological
Organization, 2023). Seven in 10 Ugandans (70%) say that crop failure has
become more severe in their area over the past 10 years, and 53% say the same
about droughts. o Increasingly severe droughts are reported most commonly in
the Northern region (71%), while large majorities in all regions except
Kampala say crop failure has become more severe. (Afrobarometer) 27 June, 2024 (Seychellois) Seychellois Want More
Government Action To Curb The Country’s Drug Epidemic The World Drug Report 2022
from the United Nations Office of Drugs and Crime (2022) estimates that
about 284 million people worldwide used illicit drugs in 2020, a 26%
increase over the past decade. A majority (55%) of Seychellois say the
government is performing “fairly well” or “very well” in tackling drug abuse.
Nearly half (46%) of citizens oppose decriminalising the sale and consumption
of marijuana or cannabis. (Afrobarometer) 05 July, 2024 (Emaswati) Emaswati Support Media’s
Watchdog Role, Insist On Media Freedom In February 2024,
Eswatini’s newly appointed prime minister, Russell Dlamini, sparked
concern about the future of press freedom in the country by announcing
plans to establish a state controlled media regulator as part of the Media
Commission Bill. Two-thirds (67%) of Emaswati say the media should
“constantly investigate and report on government mistakes and
corruption.”More than seven in 10 citizens (72%) say the media should be free
from government interference, while 26% think the government should have the
right to prevent the publication of things it disapproves of. (Afrobarometer) 22 July, 2024 Emaswati
Applaud Government’s Provision Of Electricity, Though Reliability Issues
Remain With an overall
electrification rate of 85% (UNDP Eswatini, 2024), Eswatini boasts one of
the highest rates of electricity access in sub-Saharan Africa. More
than nine in 10 citizens (92%) live in households that are connected to the
national power grid. Of those who are connected to the grid, about two-thirds
(65%) say their electricity works “most” or “all” of the time. o Combining
connection and reliability rates shows that about six in 10 (59%) of all
Emaswati enjoy a reliable supply of electricity, though these figures are
lower among rural residents (57%) and citizens experiencing high levels of
lived poverty (45%). (Afrobarometer) 26 July, 2024 WEST EUROPE (UK) When Did Britons Make Up Their
Minds How They Would Vote At The 2024 General Election? Back in May, when this
year’s election was called, there was room for this again. YouGov tracker
data compiled over the course of the election campaign shows that only 43% of
Britons had, at that point, definitely made up their mind and weren’t going
to change how (or whether) they voted. A further 23% said they were unlikely
to change their mind over the next six weeks, leaving a crucial 35% of
Britons unsure of their polling day behaviour or open to changing their
minds. (YouGov UK) 19 July, 2024 Are Britons Looking Forward To
The Paris Olympics? This Friday, billions of
eyes around the world will settle upon Paris and the opening ceremony of the
2024 Olympic games, sparking a fortnight of sport that will generate drama,
create new household names and maybe bring home a few gold medals. This time,
just over four in ten (42%) Britons say they are interested in the Paris
games, with one in eight (13%) being very interested. So while we can expect
Brits to be more absorbed in the Paris games than their immediate
predecessors, it does seem that the Olympics no longer resonate as widely as
they did a decade ago. (YouGov UK) 23 July, 2024 Voters Split On Future Leader
Of The Conservative Party And Reasons For Election Defeat New Ipsos polling, taken
July 12-15 2024, asked the British public who they think would do a good or
bad job as Conservative Party leader and what the key reasons were for their
recent General Election defeat. When asked if different hypothetical candidates
would make good or bad leaders of the Conservative Party, Nigel Farage is the
most likely to be seen as someone that would do a good job (28%). However,
almost half of the public think he would do a bad job (48%). For the public
as a whole, many of the hypothetical candidates are not well known. In fact,
only three candidates have half or more Britons offering an opinion one way
or another. (Ipsos MORI) 24 July, 2024 7 In 10 Britons Believe
Immigrants Place Extra Pressure On The NHS New polling from Ipsos has
found that 7 in 10 (70%) of the British public believe immigrants to the UK
put additional pressure on the NHS. This includes almost two in five (37%)
who say they place a great deal of extra pressure on the NHS, and a third (33%)
who say they place a fair amount of extra pressure. Over three in ten (32%)
say migrants use NHS services more than the UK population. A similar
proportion (30%) say migrants use NHS services the same amount, and one in
five (20%) think migrants use NHS services less than people born in the UK.
Fairly high proportions (18%) don’t know. (Ipsos MORI) 01 July, 2024 (Spain) Most Spaniards Think That AI
Will Not Replace Them At Work Ipsos, one of the world's
leading market research firms, has just published its annual study "AI
Monitor", which analyses the public's knowledge of AI, as well as the
trust and expectations it generates. 65% of people say they know what AI is, but
only 46% say they know which products and services use it, compared to 34%
who say they do not know, a figure that has not changed since 2023. However,
half (50%) agree that these services and products have more advantages than
disadvantages. (Ipsos Spain) 06 June, 2024 NORTH AMERICA (USA) Slim Majority Of U.S. Adults
Still Say Changing Gender Is Morally Wrong Majorities of political
liberals (81%), Democrats (72%), those who do not identify with a religion
(67%), those who do not attend religious services regularly (59%), young
adults aged 18 to 29 (56%) and college graduates (53%) believe changing
genders is morally acceptable. Less than half of their counterparts say the
same.While slightly less than half of women believe in the moral
acceptability of changing genders, they are significantly more likely than
men to think as much (48% vs. 39%, respectively). (Gallup) 07 June, 2024 Is
College Worth It? After decades of falling
wages, young U.S. workers (ages 25 to 34) without a bachelor’s degree have
seen their earnings increase over the past 10 years. Their overall wealth has
gone up too, and fewer are living in poverty today. Only one-in-four U.S. adults say it’s extremely or very important to
have a four-year college degree in order to get a well-paying job in today’s
economy. About a third (35%) say a college degree is somewhat
important, while 40% say it’s not too or not at all important. (PEW) 23 May, 2024 In The UK, Dissatisfaction With
Economy, Democracy Is Widespread Ahead Of Election None of the four major
British political parties we asked about in our survey – the Labour Party,
the Liberal Democrats, the Conservative Party and Reform UK – receive net
positive ratings from the British public. The Labour Party is seen most
favorably at 47%, though this is down somewhat from 54% favorable last year.
The Liberal Democrats get positive ratings from around four-in-ten Britons
(38%). Again, this is down from 48% last year. (PEW) 20 June, 2024 About 3 In 10 Americans Would
Seriously Consider Buying An Electric Vehicle One area where Americans
rate EVs more favorably than gas vehicles is their environmental benefits.
Nearly half (47%) say EVs are better for the environment than gas vehicles.
Smaller shares say they are about the same (31%) or are worse for the
environment (20%). However, the share of Americans who say electric vehicles
are better for the environment than gas vehicles has decreased 20 points
since 2021, from 67%. (PEW) 27 June, 2024 Amid Doubts About Biden’s
Mental Sharpness, Trump Leads Presidential Race The share of voters
describing Biden as mentally sharp has declined 6 points since January and is
considerably lower than it was in 2020. The new survey by Pew Research
Center, conducted July 1-7 among 9,424 adults, including 7,729 registered
voters, finds that both Biden and Trump are widely viewed as flawed, though
in different ways. And nearly seven-in-ten voters (68%) say they are not
satisfied with their choices for president.
Most voters describe Trump as “mean-spirited.” Trump trails
Biden on honesty and, by a narrower margin, on empathy. And about twice as
many voters describe Trump as mean-spirited (64%) as say that about Biden
(31%). (PEW) 11 July, 2024 Joe
Biden, Public Opinion And His Withdrawal From The 2024 Race Only about a quarter of Americans (26%) – including fewer than half of
Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents – said the administration had
done an excellent or good job of handling the situation. Biden’s overall job approval declined 11 points,
from 55% to 44%, between July and September 2021. It has never been in
positive territory since then. It fell another 9 points, to 24%,
following his performance in the June 27 debate. (PEW) 23 July, 2024 How
Americans Get Local Political News U.S. adults get news about
local government and politics from a variety of different sources. The most
common are friends, family and neighbors (70%) and local news outlets (66%).
Just over half (54%) also say they often or sometimes get news about local
politics from social media. Smaller shares say they at least sometimes get
local political news from local government websites (32%), local nonprofits
or advocacy groups (31%), or local politicians (30%). (PEW) 24 July, 2024 AUSTRALIA Mortgage Stress Increased In June, But Set To
Ease In The Months Ahead After The Stage 3 Tax Cuts The level of mortgage
holders ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in June (30.3% of mortgage holders) is
set to fall further over the next few months after the Stage 3 tax cuts were
introduced for Australian income earners from the first week of July. In percentage
terms the record high of 35.6% of mortgage holders in mortgage stress was
reached in mid-2008. However, with population growth and increased numbers of
mortgages in the 14 years since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), there are
now more Australian ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress. (Roy Morgan) 22 July, 2024 Net Trust In Australian Charities Is On The Rise
Over The Last Few Years After Hitting A Low In Mid-2021 The Net Trust Score of the
Charities sector reached a record high just after the onset of the pandemic,
then declined steadily to mid-2021, before recovering from early 2022. The
net trust score as of March 2024 has increased by over 50% is nearly back to
its peak reached in June 2020 in the early days of the pandemic. The
Salvation Army and RSPCA have both dropped one ranking to come in at second
and third place respectively. Perhaps unremarkably, there are no Charities on
our list with more distrust than trust. (Roy Morgan) 23 July, 2024 ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Jumps 5.9pts
To 84.4 After Stage 3 Tax Cuts Hit The Bulk Of Consumer’s Pockets; Highest
Consumer Confidence Since January 2024 Now over a fifth of
Australians, 22% (up 2ppts), say their families are ‘better off’ financially
than this time last year compared to 49% (down 4ppts) that say their families
are ‘worse off’. Views on personal finances over the next year returned to
positive territory this week, with a third of Australians, 33% (up 3ppts)
expecting their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year
while only 32% (down 3ppts) are expecting to be ‘worse off’. (Roy Morgan) 23 July, 2024 MULTICOUNTRY STUDIES Varied Beliefs And Actions On Climate Change In
39 Countries 41% of the global survey
respondents believed that human behaviour was responsible for global warming,
with women (44%) more likely than men (37%) to hold this belief. Beliefs
surrounding global warming are consistent across all age groups however
globally those in MENA countries are far more likely to believe industries
are behind climate change at 45%, whereas only 26% of people in APAC blame
industries, identifying people’s behaviours as the main cause (49%). (WIN) 07 June, 2024 Source:
https://winmr.com/varied-beliefs-and-actions-on-climate-change/ Global Attitudes To Refugees: A 52-Country
Survey From Ipsos And UNHCR There
is significant support or ‘openness’ among the public to finding solutions
that enable refugees to access their rights. While
attitudes varied, half of those surveyed believe in refugees being able to
integrate and, for example, access their full right to education, and nearly
as many support their full access to healthcare and jobs (44% and 42%,
respectively). Around three-quarters (77%) expressed support, to a varying
degree, for policies that allow refugee families to be reunited in the
country of asylum. (Ipsos Global) 18 June, 2024 Global Attitudes To Crime And Law Enforcement, A
Survey Across 31 Countries Crime
is a key concern, but the economy is front and centre. Creating
jobs and boosting the economy remains the top priority for people (50% on
average across the 31 countries), surpassing protecting local citizens’
health and environment (27%) and stopping or reducing crime (24%). Poverty
and unemployment (53%) is seen as the most significant cause of crime and
violence, followed by drug and alcohol abuse (43%). Ineffective law
enforcement is cited as a cause by 37% of global respondents, on
average. (Ipsos Global) 25 June, 2024 Source:
https://www.ipsos.com/en/global-attitudes-crime-and-law-enforcement More People View The U.S. Positively Than China
Across 35 Surveyed Countries A median of 53% in 18
high-income countries have a favorable view of the U.S. A median of 61% in 17
middle-income countries also see the U.S. favorably. Favorability ratings of
the U.S. range from a high of 86% in Poland to a low of 9% in Tunisia. And 71%
of Americans themselves have a positive view of their country. In the
high-income countries surveyed, a median of just 24% have a favorable view of
China. Far more in middle-income nations (a median of 56%) see China
positively. (PEW) 09 July, 2024 ASIA
848-857-43-01/Polls Surveys Show Chinese Economy Growing But At Modest Pace
Surveys
of Chinese factory managers showed a mixed outlook for the world’s
second-largest economy in June, with growth steady but not picking up much
steam. The China Federation of
Logistics and Purchasing’s official purchasing managers index, or PMI,
remained at 49.5, the same as in May, on a scale up to 100 where 50
marks the cut off for expansion. “From the perspective of
output, China’s economy is maintaining expansion, but the momentum of
recovery still needs to be consolidated,” the official Xinhua News Agency
cited Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician for the National Bureau of Statistics,
as saying. The PMI for new export
orders slipped to 49.4 from 49.6, perhaps reflecting announcements by
the European Union and United States of plans to increase
their tariffs on imports of electric vehicles from China. A private-sector survey
released Monday by the financial media group Caixin was more optimistic,
edging up to 51.8 from 51.7 in the previous month. That was the fastest
expansion of factory output in two years, it said. Analysts had forecast that
it would fall. But while sentiment was
positive, the level of confidence among purchasing managers fell to the
lowest in over four-and-a-half years due to worries over intense competition
and uncertain market conditions, Caixin said. The surveys offered scant
insight into whether various measures to boost the property sector, such as
cutting mortgage interest rates and down payments, have had much impact on an
industrywide slump that followed a crackdown on excessive borrowing by developers. “The PMIs for June were
mixed but on balance suggest that the recovery lost some momentum last
month,” Capital Economics said in a report. The official PMI reading
for high-tech manufacturing rose to 52.3 in June from 50.7 in May, reflecting
the government’s drive to boost investment in upgrading factories and
equipment in new industries such as computer chip and electric vehicles. “This shows that the
transformation and upgrading of China’s manufacturing industry has continued
to advance,” Zhao was quoted as saying. Chinese leader Xi Jinping
has made growth of such advanced industries a top priority, a theme likely to
dominate an upcoming meeting of top officials of the ruling Communist Party
when they meet later in the month. Xinhua said in a separate
report that during the meeting the party would disclose a new round of “deep
and comprehensive reforms.” Such measures will “chart
the course forward for the world’s second largest economy,” it said. (Asahi Shimbun) 02 July, 2024 Source:
https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/15328747
848-857-43-02/Polls Japan Atomic Power Should Decommission Tsuruga Reactor
The Nuclear Regulation
Authority has determined that the No. 2 reactor of the Tsuruga Nuclear
Power Plant in Fukui Prefecture does not meet its safety standards. The
decision will block efforts to restart the idled reactor. Operator Japan Atomic
Power Co. should make a decision to decommission the reactor given the grim
fact it has been unable to meet the safety requirements to bring the unit
back online in spite of the huge amount of time it has spent on the effort, while
many other reactors have met the regulatory requirements. At a July 26 review
meeting, the nuclear safety watchdog concluded that the possibility of
an active fault running directly beneath the containment building that houses
the Tsuruga No. 2 reactor cannot be ruled out. The stricter nuclear
safety standards established after the catastrophic accident at the Fukushima
No. 1 nuclear plant in 2011 categorically state that critical facilities such
as nuclear reactors must not be located directly above an active fault, which
is a fracture or a zone of fractures in the Earth’s crust where the movement
of rocks can cause earthquakes. If ground surface displacement occurs around
such vital facilities, it can cause significant damage, leading to a severe
accident. The NRA is expected to
reject Japan Atomic Power’s application to restart the reactor, following the
compilation of the review document. Since the NRA’s
establishment, 27 reactors have applied for permission to restart, and 17
have been recognized as meeting the new safety standards. If the application
to reactivate the Tsuruga No. 2 unit is rejected, it will mark the first such
action by the regulatory body. A major nuclear accident
would cause irreversible damage. Based on this lesson, regulatory decisions
on the safety of reactors should err on the side of greater safety when in
doubt. The risk from an active
fault directly below a critical nuclear facility is extremely high, and if
its presence under the reactor cannot be denied, there is a compelling case
for not allowing the operation of the reactor. However, the NRA cannot
force the decommissioning of nuclear reactors that do not meet the new safety
standards. Japan Atomic Power plans to seek further reviews from the NRA
after additional plant surveys to secure permission to restart the reactor. Yet, nine years have
already passed since the application to restart the Tsuruga No. 2 unit was
submitted. The prolonged review process is due to the operator’s mishandling
of the procedure. There were more than 1,000
errors in the application documents. Tampering with geological data was
also discovered. These were serious issues
that shook the foundation of the safety assessment, leading to the NRA’s
decision to suspend the process. Given the backlog of other
nuclear plant reviews and the time the NRA has already devoted to this
application, Japan Atomic Power must surely realize it is being unreasonable
in pursuing the undertaking. In the first place, the
location of the Tsuruga nuclear plant is not suitable for a nuclear facility.
Japan Atomic Power acknowledges that an active fault, known as “Urasoko
Danso,” runs through the site. Located on a peninsula,
evacuation routes would be limited in the event of an earthquake causing a
serious accident. We just witnessed how the Jan. 1 Noto Peninsula earthquake
flattened many buildings and cut off roads at many locations, reaffirming the
difficulty of sheltering indoors or evacuating when a major earthquake hits a
peninsula. Japan Atomic Power is a
company that sells electricity generated from nuclear power to major electric
utilities that are its shareholders. But since the earthquake
and tsunami disaster in 2011, it has been decided that two of the company’s
four reactors need to be decommissioned. As the other two are not in
operation, the company is forced to operate only on the “basic fees” paid by
the electric power companies. This cost is passed on to
the public through higher electric bills. The major electric power companies
have a responsibility to consider the future of Japan Atomic Power, including
whether to continue or discontinue its operations. (Asahi Shimbun) 27 July, 2024 Source:
https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/15364629
848-857-43-03/Polls Over A Quarter (27%) Of Pakistanis Are Hopeful That
Unemployment Will Decrease In The Next Six Months, While Nearly Half (49%)
Remain Pessimistic
According to a survey
conducted by Gallup & Gilani Pakistan and Dun & Bradstreet Pakistan,
over a quarter (27%) of Pakistanis are hopeful that unemployment will
decrease in the next six months, while nearly half (49%) remain pessimistic.
To view the full Consumer Confidence Index for Q3 2023-24, click here. A
nationally representative sample of adult men and women from across the
country was asked the question, “In your opinion, compared to today, in the
next six months, how will the unemployment level change?” In response, 5%
said ‘decrease a lot’, 22% said ‘decrease’, 16% said ‘stay the same’, 27%
said ‘increase’, 22% said ‘increase a lot’, and 8% said that they did not
know or gave no response.
(Gallup Pakistan) 18 July, 2024 Source:
https://gallup.com.pk/wp/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/18.07.24.Daily-poll-English.pdf
848-857-43-04/Polls An Overwhelming Number Of Pakistanis Would Not Accept A
Bribe That They Could
Easily Avoid Or Refuse (91%) Compared To Those That Would Accept It (4%)
According to a survey
conducted by Gallup & Gilani Pakistan, an overwhelming number of
Pakistanis would not accept a bribe that they could easily avoid or refuse
(91%) compared to those that would accept it (4%). A nationally
representative sample of adult men and women from across the country was
asked the question, “Suppose someone offered you a bribe and you could easily
avoid or refuse it, would you still accept the bribe?” In response, 91% said
‘No’, 4% said ‘Yes’, and 5% said that they did not know or gave no response.
Across income: There is a
higher prevalence to accept a bribe among relatively higher income groups,
with 15% of the ‘Rs. 200,001 to Rs. 500,000’ income group and 27% of the
‘More than Rs 500,000’ income group claiming they would accept a bribe.
Across gender: Pakistani
men were more likely to accept a bribe (7%), compared to Pakistani women
(2%), but more Pakistani women did not have a response (9%).
(Gallup Pakistan) 23 July, 2024 Source: https://gallup.com.pk/wp/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/23.07.24.Daily-poll-English.pdf MENA
848-857-43-05/Polls Kuwait’s Suspended Parliament: Where Does The Public Stand?
In a televised address on May 10, Kuwait’s Emir, Sheikh
Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah, firmly stated, “I will not let democracy
be exploited to destroy the state.” This address came as he dissolved the
National Assembly for the second time in three months and enacted temporary
suspensions of specific constitutional provisions for up to four years.
Subsequently, the Emir sanctioned the formation of a new cabinet and articulated his determination
to pursue reforms. This stance not only underscores his
willingness to push through controversial policies but also signals a
strategic pivot aimed at reducing the nation’s dependence on oil revenues. The suspension of the
parliament has elicited surprise among some Kuwaitis and Kuwait observers.
After all, Kuwait has long been hailed as a bastion of democracy within a region characterized by a
trend toward authoritarianism following the Arab uprisings. In stark contrast to its Gulf Cooperation
Council (GCC) counterparts, Kuwait boasts a parliament endowed with legislative
powers, capable of engaging in the formulation,
deliberation, and enactment of laws. It can also interpellate cabinet
ministers and cast votes of no confidence, which often led to ministerial
resignations. Just a month prior, on April 4, the nation had held snap elections to elect a new parliament. Kuwaitis
take great pride in their democratic traditions, including political openness
and freedom of expression. Nowhere else in the GCC do citizens enjoy
comparable rights. Some observers, however,
might have seen the decision to suspend parliament as a culmination of
longstanding tensions and disagreements within Kuwait’s political system.
Persistent gridlocks between the elected members of the parliament and the
government have gripped the nation for years, including over economic
reforms. Notably, since 2006, the National Assembly has been dissolved ten times and nullified three
times by the Constitutional Court,
emblematic of the ongoing challenges besetting the nation. In “Will Kuwait’s Next Parliament Be Its
Last?”, a Journal of Democracy Online Exclusive
from March 2024, Sean Yom rightly predicted the suspension of the parliament.
Scrutinizing the historical context of Kuwait’s democratic journey, marked by
recurrent legislative crises and political upheavals, he raised valid
concerns about the sustainability of its parliamentary democracy. Yom also
predicted that if the Emir were to suspend parliament, Kuwait might face
considerable opposition. Nevertheless, street protests have not materialized
thus far, and Kuwaitis have largely exhibited a subdued response on social
media platforms regarding the parliamentary suspension. Where might the public
stand? Our latest survey, conducted in collaboration with Tarek Masoud of
Harvard University and the Arab Barometer, offers valuable insights.
Administered prior to Ramadan this year, the survey unveils a nuanced
picture: while respondents convey disillusionment with the parliament, they
simultaneously underscore the significance of electoral processes. Our data includes 1210
face-to-face interviews conducted between February 14 and March 18. The
survey employed probability sampling techniques to ensure representation of
Kuwaiti nationals aged 18 and above. It included a wide range of questions
aimed at gauging the attitudes of ordinary Kuwaitis on political, economic,
and social matters. It is worth noting that Kuwait stands as the sole GCC
country where such comprehensive, nationally representative public opinion
surveys are readily accessible, underscoring the importance of this research
endeavor. Kuwaiti
sentiments toward the parliament’s performance are characterized by
discontent. We asked a series of
questions to probe Kuwaitis’ perspectives on the National Assembly. Most
notably, a striking 66 percent of Kuwaitis “strongly” or “somewhat” agreed
with the statement that the National Assembly slowed down the government. This prevailing sentiment
of disapproval remains consistent across demographic segments, regardless of
age, income level, or educational attainment, suggesting widespread
disillusionment with the parliament’s performance.
Similarly, 60 percent
agreed that “the government could carry out effective actions to advance the
state if it were not held back by
the parliament.” Furthermore, a mere 39 percent agreed that members of the
parliament were qualified and competent for their positions, in contrast to
the 50 percent who held a similar view regarding government ministers. These
were our original questions, not included in previous waves of the Arab
Barometer. A distinctive advantage of
collaborating with the Arab Barometer lies in our ability to conduct
longitudinal analyses, enabling comparisons of responses over time. For
instance, when respondents were prompted to either agree or disagree with the
statement, “democratic regimes are indecisive and full of problems,” 41
percent agreed or strongly agreed. This marks a notable increase from the 27
percent who had agreed with the statement when the same question was asked in
the Arab Barometer’s 2018 survey. Similarly, in response to the statement
that “under a democratic system, the country’s economic performance is weak,”
39 percent agreed in the recent survey. Interestingly, a significantly lower
proportion, only 18 percent, expressed agreement with the statement in 2018.[1]
The
results do not mean that Kuwaitis are ready to part with their democratic
principles. Our findings thus far
indicate that Kuwaitis acknowledge the imperfections within the country’s
democratic framework. What implications might these results carry for the
future of democracy in Kuwait? Will Kuwaiti society acquiesce to
authoritarian alternatives? While Kuwaitis undeniably harbor frustration over
recent parliamentary impasses, they also express a resolute endorsement of
Kuwait’s democratic heritage. In particular, 66 percent of Kuwaitis agreed
that “the parliament provides important oversight of the government.”
Moreover, an overwhelming majority perceive the “ability to freely choose
political leaders in elections” to be a very essential
pillar of democracy or human dignity.[2] Similarly, a remarkable 85 percent
agreed with the statement that “democratic systems may have problems, yet
they are better than other systems.”[3] Historically, during periods of
National Assembly suspension by Kuwaiti rulers (1976-1981; 1986-1991), the
populace consistently managed to reinstate it, a testament, perhaps, to their
enduring tradition of consensus-building that predates the constitution. Furthermore, when asked
about the culpability for Kuwait’s recent “political instability, resulting
in the formation of five governments in one year and three parliamentary
elections in three years,” 69 percent attributed responsibility to both the government and the
parliament. Subsequently, when evaluating potential measures to rectify the
situation in Kuwait, 64 percent identified that “Emiri intervention to stop
the implementation of government decisions” would help to a great extent,
while 57 percent also answered that “new parliamentary elections based on a
new election law” would help greatly. Kuwaitis understand that the complex
interplay between the elected assembly and the cabinet of ministers likely
shaped the country’s recent political tumult. They recognize that both
entities bear a shared responsibility for the myriad challenges and
disruptions that have characterized Kuwait’s recent political landscape. In the absence of
parliamentary scrutiny, the government could potentially implement
long-awaited economic reforms and other initiatives. However, the
accountability for governmental performance now rests squarely on the
shoulders of the executive branch. This elevated responsibility increases the
pressure on the government to demonstrate effective leadership, address
societal concerns, and tackle pressing challenges. Consequently, the
government must navigate this period of political transition with diligence
and transparency, aiming to rebuild public trust and steer the nation toward
progress. Yuree
Noh is Assistant Professor of Political Science at Rhode Island College and
Research Fellow at the Middle East Initiative at Harvard. Beginning in Fall
2024, she will be Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University
of Utah. Her research focuses on electoral institutions, gender &
politics, and public opinion in the Middle East and North Africa. (Arabbarometer) 23 May, 2024 Source:
https://arabbarometer.org/2024/05/kuwaits-suspended-parliament-where-does-the-public-stand/
848-857-43-06/Polls Iranians’ Attitudes Toward The 2024 Snap Presidential
Election
Survey
Summary According to the survey,
with about 10 days remaining until the presidential elections, approximately
22% of the target population stated that they will definitely vote in the
election, while about 65% stated that they will not vote; about 12% are still
undecided. (Gamaan) 22 June, 2024 Source:
https://gamaan.org/2024/06/22/election1403-english/
848-857-43-07/Polls Amid War In Gaza, 58% Of Israelis Say Their Country Is Not
Respected Internationally
Even before a prosecutor
at the International Criminal Court called for the arrest of Israel’s prime
minister, Israelis were concerned about their
country’s global image. Nearly six-in-ten (58%) said in a poll this spring
that Israel is not respected around the world. Most Israelis also feel
that antisemitism and Islamophobia are common and that both kinds of
prejudice are on the rise globally, according to the survey of 1,001 Israeli
adults conducted from March 3 to April 4, 2024. Here’s a closer look at the
survey’s findings: A
majority of Israelis do not think their country is respected internationally
A 58% majority of Israelis
say their country is not respected around the world, including 15% who say
it’s not at all respected. A smaller share of
Israelis (40%) say Israel is respected internationally, including 9% who say
it’s very respected. Israelis who place
themselves on the ideological left are especially likely to say that their
country is not respected internationally. Two-thirds of Israelis on the left
hold this view, including around a quarter (27%) who say Israel is not at all respected abroad. Views on this question
also differ depending on how Israelis perceive their country’s war against
Hamas. Israelis who believe the country’s military response against Hamas has
gone too far are especially likely to believe that Israel is not respected
around the world. By comparison, Israelis who think their country’s military
response has been about right are more likely to say that Israel is respected
abroad. Most
Israelis want their
country to be respected abroad
Although only 40% of
Israelis think their country is respected internationally, the vast majority
(83%) think it’s very or somewhat important for the country to have this kind
of global respect. That includes 59% who say it is very important. Jewish Israelis are much
more likely than Arab Israelis to place importance on international respect
for Israel (93% vs. 46%). Indeed, among Jews, nearly seven-in-ten say this
is very important. Israelis on the
ideological right (90%) and in the center (90%) are more likely than those on
the left (65%) to feel it’s important for Israel to be respected abroad. Israelis
see rising antisemitism around the world
Most Israelis (83%) think
antisemitism is common around the world, with nearly half (49%) saying
it’s very common
today. Jewish Israelis are more
likely than Arab Israelis (91% vs. 51%) to say antisemitism is common
globally. So are Israeli adults on the ideological right (91%) and in the
center (83%) when compared with those on the left (72%). A majority of Israelis
(70%) also think antisemitism is increasing around the world today. An
additional 21% say it’s staying about the same, while just 5% think it’s
decreasing. Israeli Jews are more
likely than Israeli Arabs to perceive an increase in antisemitism (79% vs.
38%). But among Arabs, younger people – those under 50 – are more likely than
older ones to think antisemitism is on the rise globally (42% vs. 28%). Israelis
also see growing Islamophobia around the world
Two-thirds of Israelis
think Islamophobia is common around the world today, with around a third
(34%) saying it’s very common. Israeli Jews are less
likely to say Islamophobia is common than to say the same about antisemitism
(68% vs. 91%). But they are still more likely than Israeli Arabs (59%) to see
Islamophobia as common (and more likely to offer an opinion on the question). A majority of Israelis
(58%) also think Islamophobia is increasing around the world. Another 26% say
it’s staying about the same, while 12% say it is decreasing. Israeli Jews are more
likely than Israeli Arabs to say Islamophobia increasing around the world
(62% vs. 40%), while Arabs are more likely than Jews to say it’s decreasing
(26% vs. 9%). The two groups are about equally likely to say it’s staying the
same. (PEW) 11 June, 2024
848-857-43-08/Polls Israelis Are More Pessimistic Than Optimistic About The
Future Of Their Political System
As the Israel-Hamas war
rages on, the shares of Israelis who see deep conflicts within their society have lessened
over the past year:
Research
in the West Bank and Gaza Pew Research Center has
polled the Palestinian territories in previous years, but in our 2024 survey,
we were unable to survey in Gaza or the West Bank due to security concerns.
We are actively investigating possible ways to conduct both qualitative and quantitative
research on public opinion in the region and will provide more data as soon
as we are able.
At the same time, Israeli public opinion has become more polarized in
other ways. For example, Arab Israelis and Jewish Israelis
have increasingly diverging views on key institutions – such as the military
– and on policy issues:
Views among those on the
ideological left and right have also diverged on some of these key issues
since we last asked about them. For example, 19% of those who place
themselves on the left trust the national government, compared with 75% of
those on the right – a difference of 56 percentage points. In 2017, the
difference was 43 points (26% on the left trusted the government, compared
with 69% of those on the right).
Against this
backdrop, Israelis are more
pessimistic (50%) than optimistic (35%) about the way their political system
works. And, whereas Arabs and Jews were about equally
pessimistic about the political system in 2019, Arabs have become more pessimistic (69%, up from 57%)
while Jews have become less so
(44%, down from 55%). Israelis
are also divided on the prospect of Arab and Jewish Israelis living together
peacefully, with equal shares saying they are
optimistic (37%) and pessimistic (37%) about this. About a quarter (23%) said
they are both, neither or that it depends. Still, Israelis are more
optimistic than pessimistic about the country’s national security and the
ability of religious and secular Israelis to live together peacefully. Related: Israeli
Views of the Israel-Hamas War These are among the key
findings of a survey of 1,001 Israelis, conducted via face-to-face interviews
from March 3 to April 4, 2024. Views
of political leaders
In March and early April,
attitudes toward Israel’s political leadership were largely negative. (The
survey took place before war cabinet member Benny Gantz resigned from the government and before Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu disbanded the emergency war cabinet.) At
the time of the survey, just one of the seven officials we asked about –
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant –
received favorable ratings from a clear majority of Israelis. Jewish and Arab Israelis
had very different views of the six other Israeli politicians we asked about.
The largest gaps were in evaluations of Gallant (Jews were 65 percentage
points more favorable than Arabs); Mansour Abbas, the leader of the United
Arab List, which is better known in Israel as Ra’am (-56); and Netanyahu
(+44). Only Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid was seen about equally favorably by
Jews and Arabs (37% vs. 41%). Ideological divides
between the right and left were also large – particularly when it came to
Netanyahu (those on the right were 61 points more favorable than those on the
left), Ben-Gvir (+54) and Smotrich (+54). (Read
more about views of Israeli leaders in Chapter
1, and
explore views of Palestinian leaders in our previous
report.) Violence
in the West Bank and East Jerusalem
Around two-thirds of
Israelis say they are extremely or very concerned about violence against Jews
in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. Around a third are similarly concerned
about violence against Arabs. But concerns differ dramatically by ethnicity:
Israeli
Jews are almost evenly split on whether they are optimistic (40%) or
pessimistic (44%) about the political system – though they are significantly
more optimistic than Israeli Arabs (15%). About seven-in-ten Arabs (69%) say
they are pessimistic about the future of the political system in Israel. People
on the right are also more optimistic (47%) than those in the center (25%) or
on the left (21%). Relatedly, Israelis with positive views of Netanyahu and
his governing coalition also express more optimism about the political system
in general than do those with unfavorable views. There are also ideological
differences, with left-leaning Israelis expressing much more concern than
right-leaning Israelis about violence against Arabs and much less concern
about violence against Jews. (PEW) 20 July, 2024 AFRICA
848-857-43-09/Polls Amid Adaptations To Changes In Weather, Ugandans Call For
Collective Climate Action
Africa is the continent
most vulnerable to climate change and its impacts, yet many African
countries remain unprepared to confront this threat (World Meteorological
Organization, 2023). According to the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative
(2023) country index, Uganda ranks high (14th) in vulnerability and low
(163rd) in readiness to act against climate change. Given that agriculture
accounts for about one-fourth of Uganda’s gross domestic product and
employs more than 70% of its labour force, rising temperatures and changing
rainfall patterns pose threats to livelihoods and food security (World
Bank Group, 2021; Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Netherlands,
2018). Citizens are also grappling with the consequences of global
warming and more frequent extreme weather events, including both droughts
and destructive floods (World Bank Group, 2021; Andrew, 2021). The glaciers of the
Rwenzori Mountains, a major source of fresh water for Ugandans, are
melting at an accelerated rate, triggering floods and landslides (Baluku,
2023). Flooding is eroding copper waste pools from old mining
operations, washing toxic waste into Uganda’s water supply and
soil (Mukpo, 2024). The government and
stakeholders have worked to mainstream climate action in the country’s
National Climate Change Policy (Republic of Uganda, 2015) and Green Growth
Development Strategy (National Planning Authority, 2017), prioritising
strategies to protect the economy and the livelihoods of the
population. In June 2023, the government launched a $2.9 million
initiative to develop a National Adaptation Plan to address the growing
impacts of climate change (United Nations Environment Programme, 2023). A special question module
in Afrobarometer’s Round 10 survey (2024) explores Ugandans’
experiences, awareness, and attitudes related to climate change. Findings
show that a majority of citizens report worsening drought and crop
failure in their region. Among the two thirds of Ugandans who are familiar
with climate change, large majorities blame it on human activity, say
it is making life worse, and call for urgent action by their government
and developed countries. In significant numbers,
Ugandans report taking steps to adapt to changing weather patterns,
including changes related to crops and foods, livestock, and water use. And
majorities express support for government investment in
weather-resilient infrastructure, funding for wind and solar energy, a
ban on tree cutting for fuel, and other policies in response to changes
in climate. Key findings
(Afrobarometer) 27 June, 2024
848-857-43-10/Polls Seychellois Want More Government Action To Curb The
Country’s Drug Epidemic
The World Drug Report 2022
from the United Nations Office of Drugs and Crime (2022) estimates that
about 284 million people worldwide used illicit drugs in 2020, a 26%
increase over the past decade. In addition to endangering the physical
and mental health of the user, the adverse effects of drug abuse ripple
across societies and generations, including its links to violence and
other forms of crime. In Seychelles, a surge in
heroin use has more than quadrupled the estimated number of users, from
1,200 in 2011 to 5,000-6,000 in 2019 – meaning that nearly 10% of the
country’s working-age population is dependent on the drug (Saigal, 2019).
This would give Seychelles the highest national per-capita heroin-use
rate in the world. Cannabis is also widely consumed, while the use of
other drugs, such as crack cocaine and methamphetamines, is steadily rising
(Bird, Stanyard, Moonien, & Randrianarisoa, 2021). Seychelles’ Division for
Substance Abuse Prevention, Treatment and Rehabilitation (DSAPTR)
endeavours to curb drug abuse through a variety of programmes. Its methadone
treatment programme, based on an approach to drug policy that views drug
addiction as a chronic disease, has received local criticism for its
distribution of needles, which seeks to avert the spread of HIV and
hepatitis C through the sharing of needles (Rodrigo, 2022). Meanwhile, reports of
police harassment of drug users has raised concern within civil society
that Seychelles will move toward a “zero tolerance” approach under which drug
users are penalised rather than assisted (Bird et al., 2021). In its first-ever survey
in Seychelles, Afrobarometer included a special module of questions to
explore citizens’ views related to drugs. Seychellois say that drug abuse,
addiction, and trafficking should be the government’s second-highest priority,
trailing only management of the economy. A majority of citizens think
the government is doing a decent job of tackling drug abuse, but views
are divided on whether ordinary Seychellois can play a role in fighting
drug abuse. Only about one-third of
respondents favour legalising the sale and consumption of marijuana.
Asked what they consider the most effective strategy to curb drug
abuse, Seychellois most often cite intensifying efforts to reduce
trafficking and enforcing severe penalties for users. Key findings
(Afrobarometer) 05 July, 2024
848-857-43-11/Polls Emaswati Support Media’s Watchdog Role, Insist On Media
Freedom
In February 2024, Eswatini’s
newly appointed prime minister, Russell Dlamini, sparked concern about
the future of press freedom in the country by announcing plans to establish a
state controlled media regulator as part of the Media Commission Bill, which
has long been on the books but inactive (Harber, 2024). Although Section 24 of
Eswatini’s Constitution guarantees freedom of expression, including
freedom of the media, the country’s media environment is heavily restricted
by laws such as the Suppression of Terrorism Act (2008), which critics argue
is used to protect the monarchy from criticism (Collaboration on
International ICT Policy for East and Southern Africa, 2022). A range of colonial-era
statutes also severely limit media freedom in Eswatini, and critics say
they are weaponised to punish the media for investigative reporting (African
Media Barometer, 2018; Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung, 2021). These include
the Cinematography Act (1920), the Obscene Publications Act (1927), the
Sedition and Subversive Activities Act (1938), the Magistrates Courts
Act (1939), the Books and Newspapers Act (1963), the Protected Places
and Areas Act (1966), and the Proscribed Publications Act (1968). In 2022, the Eswatini
government declared the online publication Swaziland News and its
editor, Zweli Martin Dlamini, “terrorist entities” under the Suppression of
Terrorism Act (Media Institute of Southern Africa, 2022). Dlamini has
been in exile in South Africa since 2020 after police raided his home
and held him for six hours (Committee to Protect Journalists, 2020;
Reporters Without Borders, 2021). A court application to have Dlamini
extradited to Eswatini to face charges of terrorism is expected to be
heard by South Africa’s High Court next month (Maromo, 2024; Dlamini,
2024). Since the 2023 enactment
of the long-dormant Eswatini Broadcasting Act, which looks to break the
state broadcaster’s stronghold on media affairs and encourage media
pluralism (Hlatshwayo, 2020; Kingdom of Eswatini, 2023), Eswatini has
risen sharply in the World Press Freedom Index rankings, from
131st in 2022 to 85th out of 180 countries (Reporters Without
Borders, 2024). But some media observers say that journalists continue to be
prevented from working freely and independently (Media Institute of Southern
Africa Regional, 2023), and Freedom House (2024) rates the country as
“not free” in terms of political rights and civil liberties. In early
2023, gunmen killed prominent human rights lawyer, columnist, and
opposition activist Thulani Maseko (Al Jazeera, 2023). How do Emaswati assess
their media scene? According to the most
recent Afrobarometer survey, in late 2022, Emaswati broadly agree that
the media should act as a watchdog over the government, exposing
government missteps and wrongdoing. Citizens value media freedom and
reject the notion that public information should be the exclusive
preserve of government officials. However, most believe that media
freedom does not exist in practice in their country. Television and radio are
the most popular news sources in Eswatini, but the Internet and social
media are favoured, too, especially by youth, urban residents, and more
educated citizens. Key findings
(Afrobarometer) 22 July, 2024
848-857-43-12/Polls Emaswati Applaud Government’s Provision Of Electricity,
Though Reliability Issues Remain
With an overall
electrification rate of 85% (UNDP Eswatini, 2024), Eswatini boasts one of
the highest rates of electricity access in sub-Saharan Africa, second
in Southern Africa behind South Africa (Nzima, 2021). Imports make up a large
share of electricity consumed in the country (Government of Eswatini,
2018a; ISS African Futures, 2023). Conservative estimates suggest that
Eswatini imports about 60%-80% of its energy supply from South Africa’s
Eskom and Mozambique’s Electricidade de Moçambique (African
Development Bank, 2021; Club of Mozambique, 2022; Government of
Eswatini, 2023), while other approximations place imports from
South Africa alone at up to 90% (World Bank, 2024).
This makes energy security a significant concern for the country,
especially as the current iteration of the import agreement with South
Africa’s embattled power utility is set to expire next year (Pachymuthu,
2022). In 2022, electricity was the third-most imported product in
Eswatini (OEC World, 2024). To address its
over-reliance on imports and ensure a more sustainable energy future,
the government of Eswatini has committed to accelerate renewable energy
generation (United Nations, 2019). According to the country’s Energy
Masterplan 2034, Eswatini aims to have a 50% share of renewable energy
in the national energy mix by 2030, to be met primarily through the
adoption of biomass, hydro, solar, and wind energy technologies
(Government of Eswatini, 2018b; UNDP Eswatini, 2021). Embracing the
transition toward cleaner sources of energy also promises to contribute
to limiting climate change, which is an important item on the
government’s to-do list (UNDP Eswatini, 2023). Eswatini’s Independent
Power Producer Policy, adopted in 2016, aims for greater private sector
participation in the electricity sector (USAID Southern Africa Trade Hub,
2016). Speaking at the 2024 Standard Bank Eswatini Energy Indaba, Eswatini
Electricity Co. Managing Director Ernest Mkhonta indicated that the
national power utility is eager to collaborate with independent power
producers to increase domestic power generation, including by bringing
them online to the national electricity grid (Sikhondze, 2024). A recent Afrobarometer
survey provides an on-the-ground look at electricity access in
Eswatini. Findings show that while the country enjoys almost total grid
coverage, only about six in 10 citizens enjoy a reliable supply of
electricity, including fewer than half of the poor. Even so, electricity ranks
far down the list of problems that Emaswati want their government to
address, and most citizens applaud the government’s performance in providing
a reliable electricity supply. Key findings
(Afrobarometer) 26 July, 2024 WEST EUROPE
848-857-43-13/Polls When Did Britons Make Up Their Minds How They Would Vote At
The 2024 General Election?
Most only became certain of how they would vote in the last
fortnight of the campaign Regardless of what the
opinion polls say going into an election or how long they’ve said it,
politicians will always be quick to respond that nothing is set in stone, it
can all change during the campaign. This is not without reason – most voters
don’t definitively make up their minds until polling day is in sight, and as
recent elections have shown, this can lead to them creating surprise shifts
during the campaign. Back in May, when this
year’s election was called, there was room for this again. YouGov tracker
data compiled over the course of the election campaign shows that only 43% of
Britons had, at that point, definitely made up their mind and weren’t going
to change how (or whether) they voted. A further 23% said they were unlikely
to change their mind over the next six weeks, leaving a crucial 35% of
Britons unsure of their polling day behaviour or open to changing their
minds.
The first four weeks of
the campaign did not create much movement on this front – the proportions of
voters still harbouring some uncertainty of which way to go remaining steady
until mid-June. It was only during the final fortnight of the campaign, once
some had already started voting by post, that people’s voting intentions
seemingly began to solidify. By the eve of polling day, with one in six (18%)
Britons saying they had already voted, the number unsure or likely to change
their minds had fallen to 15%. Of course, not all voters
made their minds up at the same time – different party campaigns will have
triggered different reactions and some will have been convinced for tactical
reasons that may only have become evident weeks into the election.
Nigel Farage’s entrance
into the campaign at the start of June, for instance, clearly triggered
something of a shoring up of Reform UK’s support. Despite no increase among
all Britons definitely making their mind, the proportion of those intending
to vote Reform who were certain in their choice increased from 45% to 54%
after Farage announced his return as leader, putting Reform voters more on a
par with supporters of the two larger parties. By the end of the campaign,
they were marginally the most definite in their vote. Those leaning towards the
Lib Dems and Greens took longer to become firm in their choice, with Lib Dem
supporters only beginning to attain a similar level of certainty to those
supporting the Conservatives and Labour in the final week of the campaign. Even
on the eve of polling day, four in ten (40%) Green supporters were not
concrete in their vote. This fits with the evidence that Lib Dem and Green voters were the most
likely to feel pressure to vote tactically. (YouGov UK) 19 July, 2024
848-857-43-14/Polls Are Britons Looking Forward To The Paris Olympics?
42%
of Britons are interested in the Olympics, fewer than ahead of the London and
Rio games This Friday, billions of
eyes around the world will settle upon Paris and the opening ceremony of the
2024 Olympic games, sparking a fortnight of sport that will generate drama,
create new household names and maybe bring home a few gold medals. Olympic organisers will
have hoped that this year’s games can trigger a bit more love than the Tokyo
Olympics three years ago, enthusiasm for which was dampened heavily by Covid
and the absence of spectators in the stadiums. Prior to the Tokyo games, 36% of Britons said they were interested in
the forthcoming Olympics, significantly down from 46% ahead of the
2016 Olympics in Rio and the 51% interested in London 2012. This time, just over four
in ten (42%) Britons say they are interested in the Paris games, with one in
eight (13%) being very interested. So while we can expect Brits to be more
absorbed in the Paris games than their immediate predecessors, it does seem that
the Olympics no longer resonate as widely as they did a decade ago.
A partial, but not full,
recovery in interest can also be seen with the Paralympics, which will begin
on 28th August. Three in ten (31%) Britons say they are interested in this
summer’s event in Paris, up from the mere 27% interested ahead of Tokyo 2020,
but down from the 37-38% interested ahead of the London and Rio games. There is obviously a
strong level of overlap between the 42% interested in the Olympics and the
44% figure for those interested in sport in general, but it is not universal.
Only three-quarters (74%) of Olympics fans have a general interest in sport,
while only seven in ten (71%) sports fans pay particular attention to the
Olympics.
But although the Olympics
will still excite a good degree of interest, the British public are rather
sceptical of Team GB’s chances. Only a quarter of the public (27%) expect
Great Britain to finish in the top five places on the overall medal table,
slightly up on the 24% who expected such a placing ahead of Tokyo 2020, but
pessimistic considering Team GB have finished in the top five in the last
four games (including fourth in Tokyo).
(YouGov UK) 23 July, 2024 Source:
https://yougov.co.uk/sport/articles/50148-are-britons-looking-forward-to-the-paris-olympics
848-857-43-15/Polls Voters Split On Future Leader Of The Conservative Party And
Reasons For Election Defeat
New Ipsos polling, taken
July 12-15 2024, asked the British public who they think would do a good or
bad job as Conservative Party leader and what the key reasons were for their
recent General Election defeat. No
consensus on who would do a good job as Conservative leader
Elsewhere in the poll, the
public were asked what they thought were the most important factors behind
the Conservative party’s election defeat. Half named poor performance on the
NHS (51%) and too many scandals (50%). This was followed by a lack of trustworthiness
and being out of touch with ordinary people on 46% each.
Ipsos
Director of Politics Keiran Pedley said of the
findings: Whoever
the new Conservative Party leader is, they will need to diagnose why the
party lost the recent General Election and come up with a plan for how to
respond. However, these findings show there is no clear public consensus on
why they lost. Reform UK / Leave supporters tend to point to immigration,
whereas others point to public services, various scandals that took place
when the Conservatives were in office and a general sense of a party out of
touch. In this context, it is perhaps no surprise that there is no public
consensus about who the next leader should be. Those popular on the right
tend to divide opinion with the public as a whole and many of the other
candidates are relative unknowns. For lots of reasons, this feels like a
leadership contest that is hard to call. (Ipsos MORI) 24 July, 2024
848-857-43-16/Polls 7 In 10 Britons Believe Immigrants Place Extra Pressure On
The NHS
New polling from Ipsos has
found that 7 in 10 (70%) of the British public believe immigrants to the UK
put additional pressure on the NHS. This includes almost two in five (37%)
who say they place a great deal of extra pressure on the NHS, and a third (33%)
who say they place a fair amount of extra pressure.
On the question of whether
migrants use NHS services more, less or about the same as the UK population,
the public are split. Over three in ten (32%) say migrants use NHS services
more than the UK population. A similar proportion (30%) say migrants use NHS
services the same amount, and one in five (20%) think migrants use NHS
services less than people born in the UK. Fairly high proportions (18%) don’t
know. However, there is also
high awareness of the reliance the NHS has on migrant workers. Three quarters
(75%) say the NHS relies on migrant workers a great deal, or a fair
amount.
Commenting on the
findings, Anna Quigley, Research
Director at Ipsos, said: We
have heard some politicians put the blame for long NHS waiting lists on
non-essential immigration. These results show us that amongst the public
there are divergent views on the complex relationship between immigration and
the NHS. The public may over-inflate the pressure immigration puts on the
NHS, while recognising the important role they play in service delivery. A
more nuanced debate on these issues should help the public become better
informed about the real pressures the NHS is under, and the challenges ahead. (Ipsos MORI) 01 July, 2024 Source:
https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/7-in-10-britons-believe-immigrants-place-extra-pressure-on-nhs
848-857-43-17/Polls Most Spaniards Think That AI Will Not Replace Them At Work
Over the past year, we
have witnessed the rise of Generative AI. In fact, the magnitude of its
impact and the speed of its deployment are placing this technology at the
centre of social conversation, as well as on the innovation agendas of
companies, due to its multiple applications in daily and work life. In this
context, Ipsos, one of the world's leading market research firms, has just
published its annual study "AI Monitor", which analyses the
public's knowledge of AI, as well as the trust and expectations it generates. One of the main
conclusions that can be drawn from this study is that the AI
boom is stabilising among the world's population and among the
Spanish population in particular, with no major changes since a year ago. A
symptom of this is that AI provokes mixed feelings; while, on the one hand,
almost half (48%) say that services and products that use AI make them
nervous, 3 points less than in 2023, 40% say the opposite. At the same time,
45% say that AI makes them enthusiastic, a perception that has dropped 5
points since last year, while a similar percentage (42%) do not share this
feeling. By age, people between 35
and 49 are the most nervous (51%) and those under 35 (51%) are the most
enthusiastic about AI. But
how far does society's real knowledge about AI go? 65% of people say they
know what AI is, but only 46% say they know which products and services use
it, compared to 34% who say they do not know, a figure that has not changed
since 2023. However, half (50%) agree that these services and products have
more advantages than disadvantages. Again, it is the youngest,
those under 35, who have the greatest knowledge, both of what AI is (71%),
and of the products and services that use this technology (54%). Spain leads the European
ranking in terms of the impact of AI on people's lives. 43% say that products
and services that use AI have profoundly changed their daily lives in the
last 3-5 years, although we find that almost the same percentage (42%) think the
opposite. In the future, people do expect AI to really change their lives, an
idea shared by 59% of the population, although we still find that 1 in 4
thinks that this will not be the case. In this sense, by age, curiously there
are no differences: 59% between those under 35 and over 50, and 58% between
35 and 49 years old. Future
expectations around AI Interestingly, people
perceive a fairly limited positive impact of AI at the moment. Half of the
population (50%) share that using AI will improve the amount of time it takes
them to do things (make them more efficient) and on the other hand, allow for
more entertainment options (48%). Where AI is not yet having
a major impact, or at least not in a positive way, is in the areas of health,
the economy and the workplace. It is in the generation of false information
on the internet where people clearly see a negative impact, with 40% stating
that it will worsen in five years. A worrying fact in a year like 2024, where
half of the world's population is holding elections. The
workplace is threatened by AI 41% of the population
thinks that the use of AI will worsen the labor market, while 26% think it
will remain the same and only 23% think it will improve it. However, the majority
(59%) think that AI will not replace them in their jobs, at least not in the
next five years. Those under 35 years of age are those who see their
professional future most threatened by AI, with 34%, followed by people
between 35 and 49 years of age with a very similar percentage (33%) and 25%
in those over 50. What most people,
regardless of age, do not deny is that AI will change the way they do their
jobs, although we still find a third of the population who do not agree with
that statement. Confidence
in AI remains Personal data protection
is one of the most sensitive issues when it comes to the use of AI by
companies, with half of the population (48%) stating that they trust that
companies using AI will protect their personal data, compared to 37% who do
not. The level of trust has not changed since a year ago (49%). A new fact from this new
wave of the Monitor is that in 29 of the 32 countries analysed, there are
more people who think that humans are more likely to discriminate against
other people than AI. A trend that Spain is no exception to; while 52% trust
that AI does not discriminate or show prejudice towards any group of people,
the trust placed in this regard towards people drops to 44%. (Ipsos Spain) 06 June, 2024 NORTH AMERICA
848-857-43-18/Polls Slim Majority Of U.S. Adults Still Say Changing Gender Is
Morally Wrong
A steady 51% of Americans
think changing one’s gender is morally wrong, while 44% say it is morally
acceptable, which is generally in line with readings in 2021 and 2023. At the same time, more than six in 10
U.S. adults oppose laws banning gender-affirming care for minors. Demographic
Differences Persist in Morality of Changing Gender There are significant
demographic differences in Americans' views of the morality of changing one’s
gender. Majorities of political liberals (81%), Democrats (72%), those who do
not identify with a religion (67%), those who do not attend religious services
regularly (59%), young adults aged 18 to 29 (56%) and college graduates (53%)
believe changing genders is morally acceptable. Less than half of their
counterparts say the same. While slightly less than
half of women believe in the moral acceptability of changing genders, they
are significantly more likely than men to think as much (48% vs. 39%,
respectively).
These subgroup readings,
from Gallup’s annual Values and Beliefs poll, conducted May 1-23, are not
meaningfully different from the two prior readings in 2021 and 2023. Most
Americans Oppose Ban on Gender-Affirming Care for Minors In recent years, lawmakers
in many U.S. states have attempted to limit or ban access to gender-affirming
care for minors. These treatments generally can include psychological
counseling, puberty blockers or hormone treatments. In all, 25 states have
enacted laws or policies limiting minors’ access to gender-affirming care.
Many of the states are facing lawsuits challenging these laws. Gallup gauges Americans’
support for laws banning such care for minors with two questions, each asked
of half of the total sample. One question asks about bans in general terms,
on “treatments and medical procedures,” while the other spells out some of the
specific treatments that could be banned, such as “psychological support,
hormonal treatments and medical surgeries” to help minors align with their
gender identity. The two question versions
yield statistically similar results. In both cases, a little more than
one-third of U.S. adults favor laws banning gender-affirming care, and just
over six in 10 oppose such laws.
On both questions,
Republicans are more supportive than Democrats and independents of bans on
gender-affirming care for minors. On the more specific question that includes
psychological support, hormonal treatments and medical surgeries, a majority
of Republicans (53%) but far fewer Democrats (25%) and independents (34%)
favor a ban. On the more general question, Republicans are somewhat less
likely to support a ban on treatments and medical procedures (45%), while
Democrats’ and independents’ responses remain unchanged from the more
specific question. Implications Gallup measures U.S.
adults’ gender identity in all of its surveys; an average of 0.9% of U.S. adults in 2023 identified as
transgender. Transgender identification among adults
is highest (2.8%) for those in Generation Z (born between 1997 and 2005). A slim majority of
Americans believe that changing one’s gender is morally wrong. Yet, a
majority also oppose laws banning gender-affirming care to help minors align
with their gender identity. This discrepancy could be because the questions
about gender-affirming care specifically mention minors, while the question
about the morality of changing one’s gender does not. In addition, the
relatively low support for banning laws on gender-affirming care may be
attributable to Americans’ general distaste for bans, a pattern that can be
seen in Gallup trends on banning cigarette smoking and handguns. Laws targeting
gender-affirming care have already been passed in half of the U.S., particularly
in states with Republican-led legislatures, and they have the backing of more
Republicans than Democrats in the U.S. Still, rank-and-file Republicans do
not overwhelmingly support these initiatives. (Gallup) 07 June, 2024 https://news.gallup.com/poll/645704/slim-majority-adults-say-changing-gender-morally-wrong.aspx
848-857-43-19/Polls Is College Worth It?
At a time when many
Americans are questioning the value of a four-year college degree, economic
outcomes for young adults without a degree are improving.
After decades of falling
wages, young U.S. workers (ages 25 to 34) without a bachelor’s degree have
seen their earnings increase over the past 10 years. Their overall wealth has
gone up too, and fewer are living in poverty today. Things have also improved
for young college graduates over this period. As a result, the gap in earnings between
young adults with and without a college degree has not narrowed. The public has mixed views
on the importance of having a college degree, and many have doubts about
whether the cost is worth it, according to a new Pew Research Center survey.
These findings come
amid rising tuition costs and mounting student debt.
Views on the cost of college differ by Americans’ level of education. But
even among four-year college graduates, only about a third (32%) say college
is worth the cost even if someone has to take out loans – though they are
more likely than those without a degree to say this. Four-year college
graduates (58%) are much more likely than those without a college degree
(26%) to say their education was extremely or very useful in giving them the
skills and knowledge they needed to get a well-paying job. (This finding
excludes the 9% of respondents who said this question did not apply to them.)
Views
on the importance of college differ widely by partisanship. Republicans
and Republican-leaning independents are more likely than Democrats and
Democratic leaners to say:
Labor
force trends and economic outcomes for young adults At the same time that the
public is expressing doubts about the value of college, a new Center analysis
of government data finds young adults without a college degree are doing
better on some key measures than they have in recent years. A narrow majority of
workers ages 25 to 34 do not have a four-year college degree (54% in 2023).
Earnings for these young workers mostly trended downward from the mid-1970s
until roughly a decade ago. Outcomes have been
especially poor for young men without a college degree. Other research has
shown that this group saw falling labor force participation and
sagging earnings starting in the early 1970s, but the
last decade has marked a turning point. This analysis looks at
young men and young women separately because of their different experiences
in the labor force. Trends
for young men
Trends
for young women
(PEW) 23 May, 2024
848-857-43-20/Polls In The UK, Dissatisfaction With Economy, Democracy Is
Widespread Ahead Of Election
Voters in the United
Kingdom head to the polls on July 4 for the country’s first general election
since 2019. Ahead of the election, Britons see the state of the UK in
relatively bleak terms. No major political party
receives a favorable rating from a majority of the British public. Few think
the nation’s economy is in good shape. And people are more dissatisfied than
satisfied with the state of democracy in their country, according to a Pew Research
Center survey of 1,o17 British adults, conducted Jan. 11-March 9, 2024. (The
survey was conducted before British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak officially called for an election.) Views
of several major political parties have become more negative in recent years None of the four major
British political parties we asked about in our survey – the Labour Party,
the Liberal Democrats, the Conservative Party and Reform UK – receive net
positive ratings from the British public.
Growing
share have unfavorable views of both the Labour and Conservative parties
This year, 35% of Britons
have unfavorable views of both the Labour and Conservative parties. This is up 7 points since
last year and has nearly doubled since the fall of 2020, when 19% had
unfavorable views of both of the country’s dominant parties. By way of comparison, this
is also higher than the 28% of Americans who had unfavorable views of both the Republican
and Democratic parties in 2023. Most
who identify with Conservative or Labour parties see their own party
favorably In the UK, people who
identify with the Conservative Party are, unsurprisingly, more likely to have
a favorable view of the party (74%) than those who identify with Labour (13%)
or who say they do not feel close to any party (25%). But even among people
who identify as Conservatives, the share who have a favorable view of their
party has fallen in recent years. In 2020, 89% had a positive view. Labour Party supporters,
for their part, are more likely than Conservatives to have a positive view of
their own party: 87% do. And the share who feel this way has been largely
consistent in recent years. Only
about 1 in 5 say the UK’s economic situation is good Few in the UK (22%) think
their country’s economy is in good shape. With 78% saying it’s in poor shape,
Britons are more negative about their country’s economy than people in most of the other countries we surveyed
this year. Conservative Party
supporters (27%) are more likely than Labour Party supporters (18%) to think the
economy is in good shape – as is often the case with members of a country’s
governing party or coalition, according to our research. But even among
Conservatives, positive views of the economy have fallen sharply in the last
three years.
Fewer
than half are satisfied with the way UK democracy is working
Today, more in the UK are
dissatisfied than satisfied with the state of their country’s democracy (60%
vs. 39%). As recently as 2021, 60% of British adults were satisfied with
their democracy. Conservative Party
supporters are more likely than Labour Party supporters to be satisfied with
democracy in their country (55% vs. 40%). Once again, we’ve found this
is common for supporters of a country’s
governing party. But Conservative Party
supporters are much less satisfied today than they were a few years ago, when
around three-quarters or more were happy with the way democracy was working
in the UK. (PEW) 20 June, 2024
848-857-43-21/Polls About 3 In 10 Americans Would Seriously Consider Buying An
Electric Vehicle
Electric vehicle sales
continue to hit record highs, but the pace of growth in the United States has
slowed for the first time since mid-2020. And a new
Pew Research Center survey finds that only about three-in-ten Americans say
they would very or somewhat seriously consider purchasing an electric vehicle
(EV), down 9 percentage points in the
past year.
Amid this softening
interest, we asked Americans about factors that could influence their choice
of electric versus gas-powered vehicles: environmental benefits, cost,
driving experience and reliability. We also looked at how confident Americans
are that there will be enough EV charging stations and infrastructure to meet
demand. Related: How
Americans View National, Local and Personal Energy Choices Are
EVs better for the environment than gas vehicles?
One area where Americans
rate EVs more favorably than gas vehicles is their environmental benefits.
Nearly half (47%) say EVs are better for the environment than gas vehicles.
Smaller shares say they are about the same (31%) or are worse for the
environment (20%). However, the share of
Americans who say electric vehicles are better for the environment than gas
vehicles has decreased 20 points since 2021, from 67%. Do
EVs cost less to buy and to charge? Most Americans say EVs
require a bigger up-front investment to buy than gas-powered vehicles (72%).
Industry data shows that the average EV still costs more than the average gas
vehicle, though this gap is narrowing. Americans are split in
their perceptions of the cost of charging or fueling these vehicles. Some 36%
say EVs cost less to charge than gas-powered vehicles do to fuel, while 28%
say EVs cost more and 32% think the costs are about the same. Are
EVs more fun to drive? EV enthusiasts tout EVs’ faster acceleration and quiet
engines as selling points over gas vehicles.
But in our survey, just 13% say EVs are more fun to drive than gas vehicles.
More than half (59%) say the two types of vehicles are about equally fun to
drive. Are
EVs more reliable? Amid reports about problems some EV owners have
encountered, such as battery issues and squeaky
brakes, half of Americans say electric vehicles are less reliable than gas
vehicles. That share is up 16 points from 2021. Only 9% say EVs are more
reliable, while 38% say electric and gas vehicles are about equally reliable. Differences
by party On every dimension,
Democrats view EVs more favorably than Republicans do.
Are
hybrids a desirable option? Will
there be enough EV charging stations and infrastructure? Concerns about limited EV charging stations
and infrastructure are one factor that can hold buyers
back from switching from gas to electric vehicles.
Overall, 56% of Americans are not too or not at all confident
that the U.S. will build the necessary infrastructure to support large
numbers of EVs. Another 31% are somewhat confident, while
just 13% are extremely or very confident. Republicans express
strikingly low confidence in EV infrastructure. Only 6% are extremely or very
confident the U.S. will build the necessary infrastructure, while 76% are not
confident. Democrats are more
positive, but confidence is hardly widespread: 19% say they are extremely or
very confident about this, while 38% are not confident. The share of
Democrats who are extremely or very confident in EV infrastructure has
decreased by 7 points from a year ago. Illustrating the tie
between infrastructure and interest, 58% of Americans who are extremely or
very confident that the U.S. will build enough charging stations say they
would seriously consider purchasing an EV. Only 16% of those who are not
confident in EV infrastructure say the same. (PEW) 27 June, 2024
848-857-43-22/Polls Amid Doubts About Biden’s Mental Sharpness, Trump Leads
Presidential Race
Following President Joe
Biden’s poor performance in the June 27 debate,
former President Donald Trump holds a 4 percentage point lead over Biden
among registered voters: 44% say that if the election were held today, they
would vote for Trump; 40% would vote for Biden, while 15% support third-party
candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Voters’ doubts about
Biden’s mental sharpness, while not new, have become the subject of intense
focus following the debate. Only
about a quarter of voters (24%) say the phrase “mentally sharp” describes
Biden very or fairly well; more than twice as many (58%) describe Trump as
mentally sharp. The share of voters
describing Biden as mentally sharp has declined 6 points since January and is
considerably lower than it was in 2020. The new survey by Pew
Research Center, conducted July 1-7 among 9,424 adults, including 7,729
registered voters, finds that both Biden and Trump are widely viewed as
flawed, though in different ways. And nearly seven-in-ten voters (68%) say
they are not satisfied with their choices for president. Among the survey’s major
findings: Most
voters describe Trump as “mean-spirited.” Trump
trails Biden on honesty and, by a narrower margin, on empathy. And about
twice as many voters describe Trump as mean-spirited (64%) as say that about
Biden (31%). Majorities
of voters describe both Biden
and Trump as “embarrassing,” with identical
shares (63% each) saying this about each candidate. A third or more of each
candidate’s supporters – 37% of Biden supporters and 33% of Trump supporters
– say their own candidate is embarrassing. (Read more about views of the
candidates in Chapter 2.)
The
state of the 2024 presidential race: While
Trump leads the presidential race, 44% to 40% over Biden, 17% say they
support Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (15%) or another candidate (2%). If the choices are
narrowed to Biden and Trump, Trump would hold a slight edge: 50% favor Trump,
while 47% support Biden. Age Trump leads Biden among
voters ages 50 and older by 48% to 39%, with 11% favoring Kennedy. Trump has
a more modest edge among voters 30 to 49: 42% support Trump, while 37% back
Biden and 19% favor Kennedy. Biden holds a wide
advantage over Trump among voters under 30 (48% to 28%). About one-in-five
voters (22%) in the youngest age group say they back Kennedy. Race
and ethnicity Trump has an advantage
among White voters (50% to 36% for Biden), while Biden holds a wide lead over
Trump among Black voters (64% to 13%, with 21% supporting Kennedy). Biden and Trump are tied
among Hispanic voters (36% each), while 24% support Kennedy. Biden has a wide
lead over Trump among Asian voters (47% to 29%); 19% back Kennedy. Partisanship
and the 2020 vote While both Biden and Trump
draw support from large majorities of their own parties’ voters, Trump is
currently holding on to more of his 2020 voters than Biden. Nearly nine-in-ten
validated voters (88%) who backed Trump four years ago support him today.
That compares with 79% of Biden’s 2020 voters who currently support him.
About one-in-seven (14%) of Biden’s voters four years ago prefer Kennedy
today; among Trump’s 2020 voters, 8% say they’re voting for Kennedy. (Read
more about voters’ preferences in Chapter 1.) Related: Behind
Biden’s victory: An examination of the 2020 electorate, based on validated
voters. Broad
dissatisfaction with the 2024 campaign
Pew Research Center
surveys over the past year have found widespread unhappiness over the state of American politics and the choices for president.
In the new survey, voters render harsh judgments on the 2024 campaign:
Majorities of voters
across demographic groups express dissatisfaction with the presidential
candidates. However, Trump supporters are far more satisfied with their
choices than are either Biden or Kennedy supporters. About half of Trump
supporters (51%) say they are very or fairly satisfied with the presidential
candidates, while nearly as many (48%) say they are not too or not at all
satisfied. Roughly eight-in-ten Biden
supporters (81%) and an even larger majority of Kennedy supporters (90%)
express dissatisfaction with the candidates. A
growing share of Biden supporters would replace both Biden and Trump on the
ballot
Since April, there has
been a modest uptick in the share of voters who say that if given the chance,
they would replace both Biden and Trump on the ballot. Currently, 53% favor
replacing Biden and Trump with different candidates, up from 49% in April. This
shift has come entirely among Biden supporters. In fact, Trump supporters
are less likely to
favor replacing both candidates than they were in April. Currently, 71% of Biden
supporters say that if they had the ability to decide the major party
candidates for the 2024 election, they would replace both Biden and Trump. Roughly a
quarter (23%) say they would keep Biden and replace Trump, while smaller
shares would keep Trump and replace Biden (2%) or keep both candidates (3%). In April, a smaller
majority of Biden supporters (62%) favored replacing both Biden and Trump. Among Trump supporters, by
contrast, the share who would replace both candidates has declined, from 35%
to 26%. The share who wants to keep both candidates on the ballot has risen
from 27% to 39%. Other
findings: Voter engagement, candidates and issues, Trump’s conduct, Biden’s
personal traits over time, job approval
Kennedy
supporters are far less politically engaged than Biden or Trump supporters. Across
several measures of election engagement – motivation to vote, a belief that
the stakes in the election are important, attention to the campaign – there
are no meaningful differences between Biden and Trump supporters. But Kennedy supporters
stand out for their low levels of engagement. For example, 39% say it really
matters who wins, which is only about half the shares of Biden (79%) and
Trump supporters (78%). And just 21% of Kennedy supporters say they are
extremely motivated to vote; again, that is much lower than Biden or Trump
supporters (63% each). (Read more about voters’ preferences in Chapter 1.) Related: Third
party and independent candidates often fall short of early polling numbers. Trump
holds wide leads on immigration, the economy and foreign policy. Trump
holds double-digit advantages over Biden on all three issues. His lead on
immigration policy is 17 points: 52% of voters are very or somewhat confident
in Trump, while 35% are confident in Biden. Biden leads by 8 points on
working well with officials in the opposing party (40% to 32%) and by 4
points on making good decisions on abortion policy (48% to 44%). (Read more
about voters’ preferences on issues in Chapter 2.) Just
30% of Trump’s supporters like the way he conducts himself. A
majority of Trump supporters (55%) have mixed feelings about the way he
conducts himself, while 15% don’t like his conduct. Biden supporters express
much more positive views about their candidate’s conduct. Nearly six-in-ten
(59%) like the way he conducts himself.
Biden’s
ratings decline for mental sharpness and remain consistent for honesty. Only
about half as many voters describe Biden as mentally sharp today (24%) as did
so in October 2020 (46%), during the final month of that campaign. His
ratings for mental sharpness have declined throughout his presidency. In
April 2023, a third of voters said he was mentally sharp. Trump’s ratings for mental
sharpness are higher today than they were in 2020 (58% now, 50% then). By
contrast, Biden’s rating on honesty – currently 48% – is identical to his
rating in 2020. The share describing Trump as honest also is little changed
(36% now, 36% then). Biden’s
job approval among the general public: Roughly
a third of Americans (32%) approve of Biden’s job performance. His job rating
has fluctuated modestly over the course of this year. The current measure is
3 points lower than in April and roughly the same as in January (33%). Since
April, Biden’s job rating has declined 4 points among Democrats and
Democratic-leaning independents (from 65% to 61%). Just 5% of Republicans and
Republican leaners approve, which is little changed over the past year. (Read
more about Biden’s job approval and views of the Republican and Democratic
parties in Chapter 5.) (PEW) 11 July, 2024
848-857-43-23/Polls Joe Biden, Public Opinion And His Withdrawal From The 2024
Race
Joe Biden’s extraordinary
decision to not pursue the Democratic nomination for president has upended
the 2024 presidential race, with Vice President Kamala Harris emerging as a strong favorite for
the Democratic nomination. Here are some of the key
public opinion dynamics around Biden’s choice. Job
approval
Biden’s job approval
ratings have been more negative than positive since late 2021. And only about
a third of Americans have approved of his performance for the last year. But Biden’s approval
rating was far higher in the early months of his presidency. At
about the 100-day mark of his presidency, Biden’s 59% job rating was on par
with approval of several recent presidents. It
was 20 percentage points higher than Donald Trump’s at a similar point in his
presidency. The early days of Biden’s
presidency featured some notable successes,
including the manufacture and rollout of the COVID-19 vaccine (which began
development under the Trump administration) and passage of a $2 trillion
coronavirus economic aid package. However, the chaotic U.S.
military withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021 proved to be a pivotal
moment in Biden’s first year – and, ultimately, in his presidency.
Biden’s
overall job approval declined 11 points, from 55% to 44%, between July and
September 2021. It has never been in positive territory since then. Confidence in Biden’s handling of issues largely
followed this same trajectory. Age
and fitness Concerns about Biden’s age
and fitness to serve have been present since he ran for president in 2020.
While perceptions of some
of Biden’s personal traits and characteristics have changed little in the
past four years, that’s not the case for his mental acuity: The share of
voters who view Biden as mentally sharp declined steadily over the course of
his presidency.
This pattern is evident in
perceptions of Biden’s other personal traits associated with his age, such as
whether he is energetic. In January, only 24% of Americans described Biden as
energetic, a 16-point drop from 2020. Biden’s
support has long been more about who he isn’t than who he is Biden trailed Trump in
many national surveys in the final weeks of his 2024 campaign. Those margins,
including 4 percentage points in our most recent national survey,
may not have boded well for the Democrat – though candidates have overcome
larger deficits at this point in the race.
But among Biden’s own
supporters, there were widespread concerns about his age and health – and his
ability to beat Trump.
Heading into the general
election this year, the 2024 election was shaping up to be a record battle
not just because of the age of the two candidates, but because of the
historic size of the share of Americans who didn’t like either one of them. A
quarter of Americans fell into this group of so-called “double negatives.” As of April, nearly half
of registered voters (49%) said they wanted to see both candidates replaced
on the ballot – and Biden supporters (62%) were considerably more likely than
Trump supporters to say this. Following Biden’s poor
showing in the June 27 debate, his own supporters’ calls for him to be
replaced only increased. By early July, 71% of voters who backed Biden also
said they would prefer to see both candidates replaced on the ballot. (PEW) 23 July, 2024
848-857-43-24/Polls How Americans Get Local Political News
This
is the second report in a series focused on local news. Read our first
report, “Americans’ Changing Relationship With Local News.” Americans want information
about local government and politics. Most say they are at least somewhat
interested in news about local laws and policies and local elections. And
about two-thirds say they often or sometimes get local political news –
higher than the shares who get news on several other local topics, including
the economy and sports.
But among Americans who
get news on local politics, only a quarter are highly satisfied with the
quality of the news they get, according to a new Pew Research Center survey.
Those who get news about weather, traffic and several other topics are more
likely to be satisfied with the news they get in those areas.
Americans also do not
widely see it as easy to find the news and information they need to take part
in the local political process. Fewer than half of U.S. adults (45%) say it
is very or somewhat easy to find the information they need to make voting
decisions in local elections.
By comparison, 59% say it is easy to find the information they need for presidential elections. In both cases, much higher
shares of Americans say they are at least somewhat interested in news about
elections than say it is easy to find the information they need to vote. There is virtually no
difference between Democrats and Republicans (including independents who lean
toward each party) in the shares who say it is easy to find the information
they need to vote locally. But younger adults are less likely than those ages
50 and older to say it is easy to be an informed local voter. Jump to
more information on how U.S. adults view local political news. We asked these questions
to better understand how Americans get local political news at a time
when many local news outlets are struggling, local news consumption habits are becoming
more digital, and public attention to local news is declining.
This report, the second in a series focused on local news, is part of the
Pew-Knight Initiative, a research program funded jointly by The Pew
Charitable Trusts and the John S. and James L. Knight Foundation. Other key findings about
Americans’ experiences with local political news include: Americans
most often get local political news from friends and family, local news
outlets, and social media
U.S. adults get news about
local government and politics from a variety of different sources. The most
common are friends, family and neighbors (70%) and local news outlets (66%). Just over half (54%) also
say they often or sometimes get news about local politics from social media. Smaller shares say they at
least sometimes get local political news from local government websites
(32%), local nonprofits or advocacy groups (31%), or local politicians (30%). There are gaps between
younger and older adults in some of the sources they turn to for local
political news:
Similar shares of older
and younger adults get news about local politics from friends, family and
neighbors. Jump to
more details about Americans’ sources for local political news. Americans
are more interested in news about national politics than local politics In general, nearly
identical shares of Americans say they follow local news and national news very
or somewhat closely. But when it comes to politics in particular, there is
more interest in news about national politics than local politics.
Americans
who are more attached to their local community are more interested in and
satisfied with local political news There are clear links
between Americans’ sense of community attachment and their experiences with
news on local government and politics. Those who feel more attached to their
community have more interest in news about local laws and local elections,
higher satisfaction with the quality of their local political news, and an
easier time finding the information they need to vote.
Community attachment
remains an important factor in these opinions independent of whether people
are registered to vote or how closely they follow local political news. (PEW) 24 July, 2024 Source:
https://www.pewresearch.org/journalism/2024/07/24/how-americans-get-local-political-news/ AUSTRALIA
848-857-43-25/Polls Mortgage Stress Increased In June, But Set To Ease In The
Months Ahead After The Stage 3 Tax Cuts
New
research from Roy Morgan shows there are now 1,602,000 mortgage holders
(30.3%) ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in the three months to June 2024. This
represents an increase of 88,000 (+0.6%) on a month earlier but is below the
record highs reached earlier this year. The
RBA left interest rates on hold during their June board meeting and there is
no RBA board meeting to decide upon interest rates during the current month
of July. The level of mortgage
holders ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in June (30.3% of mortgage holders) is
set to fall further over the next few months after the Stage 3 tax cuts were
introduced for Australian income earners from the first week of July. In percentage terms the
record high of 35.6% of mortgage holders in mortgage stress was reached in
mid-2008. However, with population growth and increased numbers of mortgages
in the 14 years since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), there are now more
Australian ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress. 795,000
more ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress two years after interest rate increases
began Compared to May 2022, when
the RBA began a cycle of interest rate increases, the number of Australians
‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress has increased by 795,000. Official interest
rates are now at 4.35%, the highest interest rates have been since December
2011, over a decade ago. Over a million mortgage
holders are now considered ‘Extremely At Risk’ (1,016,000 or 20.0% of
mortgage holders) which is significantly above the long-term average over the
last 10 years of 14.5%. Mortgage
Stress – % of Owner-Occupied Mortgage-Holders
Source:
Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia), average interviews per 3 month period
April 2007 – June 2024, n=2,798. Mortgages
‘At Risk’ set to fall in July, August and September after income tax cuts
boost incomes – even if there are further interest rate increases in August
and September by +0.5% to 4.85% Roy Morgan has modelled
the impact of potential RBA interest rate increases of +0.25% in August 2024
(+0.25% to 4.6%) and September 2024 (+0.25% to 4.85%). Roy Morgan’s mortgage
stress forecasts for July, August and September also take into account the Stage
3 income tax cuts which began in early July and have boosted the take home
incomes of many Australians. In June, 30.3% of mortgage
holders, 1,602,000, were considered ‘At Risk’ and this figure is forecast to
fall in both July and August, even if the RBA decides to increase interest
rates in August by +0.25% to 4.60%. In August, the number of
mortgage holders considered ‘At Risk’ is forecast to fall by 35,000 from
currently to 1,567,000 (29.7%, down 0.6% points) of mortgage holders after
the impact of the Stage 3 tax cuts. Looking forward into
September, if the RBA decides to increase interest rates by +0.25% to 4.85%
in September, that will increase the number of mortgage holders considered
‘At Risk’ in August (1,567,000), up 11,000 to 1,578,000 (29.8% of mortgage
holders) in September; but still down 24,000 from current figures. Mortgage
Risk projected forward following income tax cuts in July and a forecast
interest rate increases of +0.25% to 4.60% in August 2024 and another of
+0.25% to 4.85% in September 2024
Source:
Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia), April – June 2024, n=3,843. How
are mortgage holders considered ‘At Risk’ or ‘Extremely At Risk’ determined? Roy Morgan considers the
risk of ‘mortgage stress’ among Mortgage holders in two ways: Mortgage holders are
considered ‘At Risk’[1] if their mortgage repayments are
greater than a certain percentage of household income – depending on income
and spending. Mortgage holders are
considered ‘Extremely at Risk’[2] if even the ‘interest only’ is over a
certain proportion of household income. Unemployment
is the key factor which has the largest impact on income and mortgage stress It is worth understanding
that this is a conservative forecasting model, essentially assuming all other
factors apart from interest rates and income tax changes remain the same. The latest Roy Morgan
unemployment estimates for June show over one-in-six Australian workers are
either unemployed or under-employed – 2,706,000 (17.3% of the workforce); (In June Australian unemployment dropped to
8.3%; the lowest unemployment since September 2022)
– although the good news is that this is down 281,000 on a year ago. Although all eyes are on
the latest inflation figures (due out at the end of July) and their influence
on future movements in interest rates, the fact remains the greatest impact
on an individual, or household’s, ability to pay their mortgage is not interest
rates, it’s if they lose their job or main source of income. The recent income tax
cuts, which have now started boosting disposable income for the vast majority
of working Australians, are set to ease mortgage stress for many Australians
over the next few months. Michele
Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says mortgage stress increased in June, with 1.6
million mortgage holders (up 88,000) considered ‘At Risk’, although that
number is set to ease over the next few weeks as the Stage 3 income tax cuts
ease the burden for many: “The
latest Roy Morgan data shows 1,602,000 mortgage holders were ‘At Risk’ of
mortgage stress in June 2024, up 88,000 from May, but still below the record
highs reached earlier this year. “The
figures for June 2024 represent an increase of 795,000 mortgage holders
considered ‘At Risk’ since the RBA began raising interest rates over two
years ago in May 2022. The figures take into account 13 rate increases which
raised interest rates by a total of 4.25% points to 4.35%. “The
latest ABS
monthly inflation figures for May 2024 showed annual inflation at 4.0% – up 0.4%
points from April 2024 and the highest figure this year. The increase in the
inflation estimate led to media discussion about whether the RBA would need
to once again raise interest rates. “The
renewed increases in inflation in recent months have moved the official level
of inflation further away from the Reserve Bank’s preferred target range of
2-3%. In addition, key inflation indicators such as petrol prices remain high
– for the first time in history average retail petrol prices have been above
$1.80 per litre for a record 53 straight weeks – over a full year. “For
these reasons we have modelled interest rate increases of +0.25% in August
and September. However, although interest rate increases would normally lead
to a higher level of mortgage stress, the Stage 3 income tax cuts delivered
to millions of Australians in early July are set to have a larger impact in
driving down mortgage stress over the next few months. “Even
if the RBA increases interest rates by +0.25% in both August and September to
4.85%, the level of mortgage stress would still drop by 24,000 to 1,578,000
mortgage holders (29.8%) considered ‘At Risk’ in the three months to
September 2024. “The
latest figures for mortgage stress show that when considering the data, it is
important to appreciate that interest rates are only one of the variables
that determines whether a mortgage holder is considered ‘At Risk’ of mortgage
stress. The Stage 3 income tax cuts are delivering significant financial
relief, and a boost to take home pay, for millions of Australian taxpayers –
including many mortgage holders. “As
these figures show, the variable with the largest impact on whether a
borrower falls into the ‘At Risk’ category is related to household income –
which is directly related to employment. The employment market has been
strong over the last year (the
latest Roy Morgan estimates show 673,000 new jobs created compared to a year
ago) and
this has provided support to household incomes which have helped to moderate
levels of mortgage stress since the highs of early 2024.” (Roy Morgan) 22 July, 2024 Source:
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9627-mortgage-stress-risk-june-2024
848-857-43-26/Polls Net Trust In Australian Charities Is On The Rise Over The
Last Few Years After Hitting A Low In Mid-2021
A
special webinar with Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine focused on Trust and
Distrust in the Australian Charity sector has found Net Trust has been
consistently rising over the last few years. When we look at the
longer-term levels of Net Trust in the Charities sector, we see there’s a lot
more green than red on the chart below. That’s evidence that Charities
overall are much more trusted than distrusted. However, trust and
distrust have fluctuated over recent years. While Charities remain among the
most trusted sectors in Australia (third overall behind Consumer Products and
Retail in the latest results), the Net Trust Score (the black dotted line) is
still lower than the mid-2020 peak. The Net Trust Score of the
Charities sector reached a record high just after the onset of the pandemic,
then declined steadily to mid-2021, before recovering from early 2022. The
net trust score as of March 2024 has increased by over 50% is nearly back to
its peak reached in June 2020 in the early days of the pandemic. View
the Roy Morgan Trust & Distrust in Charities Webinar with Roy Morgan CEO
Michele Levine here. The
Net Trust Score of the Charities sector (2019-2024)
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia). Risk Monitor,
12 month average to March 2024. Base: Australians
14+, Latest 12 month average n=24,663. Latest 12 month average for charity
industry. n=730. Red
Cross, Salvation Army and the RSPCA are Australia’s most trusted charities It’s interesting to note
that due to an increase in trust, the Red Cross has moved up two positions
over the last 12 months to become the most trusted charity brand in
Australia. In a time of wars and
conflict globally, more Australians view the Red Cross positively because of
its focus on doing good for all communities world-wide. The Salvation Army and
RSPCA have both dropped one ranking to come in at second and third place
respectively. Perhaps unremarkably, there are no Charities on our list with
more distrust than trust. Australian
Charities with the highest Net Trust Scores – March 2024
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia). Risk Monitor,
12 month average to March 2024. Why
do Australians TRUST the top-ranking brand: Red Cross Analysing what makes the
Red Cross the top-ranking charity, respondents say it is “upfront, transparent, ethical and honest”,
and “it does what it says it does,
saving lives with no PROFIT motivation.” “They
keep our blood banks free and disease free, they help at times of national
and international disasters.” “Charity
that seems to do what it says it does. Built to save lives with no profit
motivation.” “I
support their intentions and actions, which they are transparent about.” “It
is a charitable organisation that has been around helping people for many
years.” “I
believe the Red Cross acts ethically with donations, despite the discourse
that surrounds Red Cross appeals. I am also a regular blood donor so spend a
lot of time in the blood donation centres. I believe the Red Cross as an
organisation advocate for and provides for people in need.” Roy
Morgan CEO Michele Levine says trust in Australia’s charities has been on the
rise in recent years after hitting a low in mid-2021 with the Red Cross
leaping into first place as the country’s most trusted charity ahead of the
Salvation Army and RSPCA: “The
Charities sector is one of Australia’s most trusted – third only to the top
ranked Consumer Products and the Retail sector in the latest March 2024
Industry Net Trust Score quarterly results. “The
most recent results show the Charities sector overtaking the previously
high-flying Supermarkets & Convenience Store sector as the soaring
distrust of Coles and Woolies has caused the sector to drop out of the top
two. “The
Net Trust Score of the Charities sector reached a record high just after the
onset of the pandemic, then declined steadily to mid-2021, before recovering
from early 2022. The Net Trust Score as of March 2024 has increased
substantially over the last two years and is nearly back to its peak reached
in June 2020 in the early days of the pandemic. “Australians
have the highest regard for the internationally focused Red Cross which has
been helping people world-wide which was founded over 160 years ago in
Switzerland and founded in Australia over a century ago in Melbourne. “The
Red Cross has increased it’s Net Trust Score over the last year to overtake
the Salvation Army and the Royal Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to
Animals (RSPCA) to become the most trusted charity in Australia. “Australians
cited the Red Cross as being upfront, transparent, ethical and honest as well
as an organisation that has helped people around the globe for many years. In
a time of international unrest and conflicts underway around the world the
ethical reputation of the Red Cross has carried this Melbourne-headquartered
charity to the top of the rankings. “Unusually,
but perhaps not surprisingly, the Charity sector is an outlier with seven
charities with positive Net Trust Scores (Red Cross, Salvation Army, RSPCA,
Cancer Council, St. Vincent’s de Paul, World Vision & Greenpeace) and no
charities registering a Net Distrust Score.” (Roy Morgan) 23 July, 2024 Source:
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9632-roy-morgan-charities-webinar-july-2024
848-857-43-27/Polls ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Jumps 5.9pts To 84.4
After Stage 3 Tax Cuts Hit The Bulk Of Consumer’s Pockets; Highest Consumer
Confidence Since January 2024
ANZ-Roy
Morgan Consumer Confidence has jumped 5.9pts to 84.4 this week – the largest
weekly jump for over three years since mid-April 2021, after Easter that
year, when the index jumped 6.4pts. However, despite the significant
jump, the index has now spent a record 77 straight weeks below the mark of
85. Consumer Confidence is a large 9.2 points above the same week a year ago,
July 17-23, 2023 (75.2), and is now 2.7 points below the 2024 weekly average
of 81.7. This is the highest weekly
Consumer Confidence reading for six months since mid-January 2024 and came
after the vast majority of income taxpayers have now received a significant
income tax cut. A look at Consumer
Confidence by State shows there were increases in most States led by a large
rise in Queensland, up strongly in New South Wales, Victoria and South
Australia, although there was a dip against the trend in Western Australia. There was positive
movement across the index this week with all five questions moving in a
positive direction and contributing to the weekly increase. Current
financial conditions
Future
financial conditions
Short-term
economic confidence
Medium-term
economic confidence
Time
to buy a major household item
ANZ
Economist, Madeline Dunk, commented: ANZ-Roy
Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence recorded its largest weekly rise since
April 2021, jumping 5.9pts to hit a six-month high. The improvement in
confidence was broad-based, with each of the subindices increasing by at
least 5pts. Notably, households’ confidence in their current financial
situation was the second highest since early-2023. This suggests households
may be starting to see a boost to their incomes from the Stage 3 tax cuts and
other cost-of-living relief measures. The next few weeks will be important in
determining whether this is the start of a sustained recovery in consumer
confidence. (Roy Morgan) 23 July, 2024 Source:
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9530-anz-roy-morgan-consumer-confidence-july-23 MULTICOUNTRY STUDIES
848-857-43-28/Polls Varied Beliefs And Actions On
Climate Change In 39 Countries
The Worldwide Independent Network of MR (WIN), the
world’s leading independent association in market research and polling, today
reveals findings from the Annual WIN World Survey on global warming, climate
change, and government efforts to track and understand any improvements
worldwide in regard to the health of the planet. The WIN annual survey explores the views and beliefs
of 33,866 people in 39 countries across the globe. People take accountability 41% of the global survey
respondents believed that human behaviour was responsible for global warming, with women
(44%) more likely than men (37%) to hold this belief. Beliefs surrounding global warming are consistent
across all age groups however globally those in MENA countries are far more
likely to believe industries are behind climate change at 45%, whereas only
26% of people in APAC blame industries, identifying people’s behaviours as
the main cause (49%). Natural phenomenon are widely dismissed across the
majority of the world with the exception of countries within Africa where 37%
of those surveyed reported believing that the planet was changing naturally. Education is a factor in opinions about global
warming, with those with no education being the most likely to report natural
causes as the culprit for global warming (29%) and the least likely to
believe that industries (17%) were responsible for the planet. They’re also
the least likely to report people’s behaviours (31%) as responsible.
Taking action against
climate change Of those globally surveyed, when it
came to opinions on what could be done to combat climate change gender played
almost no role in swaying opinions with both showing an overwhelming
preference for recycling (64%) with no longer buying fast fashion products
being second at 29%. People ages 65+ tend to sway more towards no longer
taking planes as a preventer of climate change at 24% as opposed to 18-24
(15%), 25-34(14%), 35-44 (15%), 45-54 (15%) and 55-64 at 19%. Europe reports higher rates of being willing to
recycle (72%), on the other hand only 46% in the MENA region share the same
sentiment. The continent of Africa reports the lowest in the world of being
prepared to give up fast fashion at only 4% whereas Europe reports a far
higher 43%. Government Improvements
for climate change People look to the government for
guidance, globally the trust in respective government bodies taking necessary
actions to care for the environment has risen from 39% in 2023 to 44% in
2024, with men (46%) being more trustworthy than women (41%). There is a negative trend in government trust when
it comes to education, those with no education report highest levels of
believing that the government is taking necessary actions: those who
completed primary school reported 50%, secondary school 46%, University
degree at 40% and higher levels of education at 42%. Trust in the government is highest in Africa at 70%,
and APAC countries at 65% – it sits lowest in Europe and the Americas
respectively at 33% and 32%. The country reporting the highest belief that
the government are taking action for the environment is Vietnam at 94% with
the Philippines (90%) and Indonesia(87%) closely following. The country who
reports the least trust in the government is Paraguay at 6% having dropped
from 15% in 2023.
Vilma Scarpino, President
of WIN International Association, said: “Global perspectives on climate change reveal
diverse beliefs and actions, with significant differences across regions,
genders, and education levels, highlighting the complexity of addressing this
critical issue.” (WIN) 07 June, 2024 Source: https://winmr.com/varied-beliefs-and-actions-on-climate-change/ 848-857-43-29/Polls Global Attitudes To Refugees: A
52-Country Survey From Ipsos And UNHCR
Key findings:
Public Understanding of
"Refugees" This year’s survey sought to capture public
understanding of the term "refugees”. The legal definition of a refugee is someone who has
been forced to flee their own country due to war, violence, or persecution
and seek safety in another country. Overall, the large majority or people surveyed – 75%
(Global country average), correctly understand the term "refugee"
to mean someone who has left their home country due to conflict, violence, or
persecution or has sought and been granted asylum. However, a significant
portion also believes the term applies to those escaping natural disasters or
seeking better economic opportunities. It is important to appreciate these
different interpretations and levels of understanding when analysing the findings. (Ipsos Global) 18 June, 2024 848-857-43-30/Polls Global Attitudes To Crime And Law
Enforcement, A Survey Across 31 Countries
Key findings:
Economy seen as more
important than stopping crime Fifty percent, on average across 31 countries say
that governments should prioritize creating jobs and boosting the economy
over protecting local citizens’ health and environment (27%) and stopping or
reducing crime (24%). LATAM is where desire for a focus on crime is highest.
In Chile 59% say its government top priority is reducing crime, followed by
Peru (55%) and Mexico (43%). Perceptions of crime and what actions people feel
governments should take sometimes plays out in unexpected ways. Overall,
across the 31 countries Ipsos polled in, more say crime has stayed about the
same in the past year, though many note a range of crimes they see in their
communities, from vandalism to drug use to trafficking. However, some
countries want their governments to prioritize crime even as many have not
reported increases in crime, and vice versa, suggesting complicated issue
priorities from the public. The top causes of
crime About half of respondents (53%) across 31 countries
believe poverty and unemployment are the main cause of crime and violence in
their area. Drug and alcohol abuse (43%) and ineffective law enforcement
(37%) are also perceived as playing a role in causing crime. However, there are differences across the age
categories. All generations see poverty and unemployment as leading causes of
crime and corruption in their neighborhoods, though Boomers are more likely
to say crime is also driven by a drug and alcohol abuse, and a breakdown of
traditional values. Gen Z emphasizes a lack of education as a driver of crime
in their community. Can you break the law and
do the right thing? An average of 35% of respondents across all 31
countries agree with the statement "Sometimes you must ignore the law to
do the right thing," while 65% believe that "People should always
obey the law, even if it interferes with their interests." The majority of surveyed individuals favor obeying
the law at the expense of their personal interests, indicating a respect for
the established legal order. But, this changes based on country and region.
Countries like Israel (80%), Türkiye (79%), and Chile (73%) are most likely
to express strong adherence to law and order. On the other hand, Belgium
(52%), the Netherlands (44%), and Japan (44%) are more likely to say that
sometimes the law must be ignored to do the right thing. Flexibility towards
obeying the law suggests a more malleable approach to justice in these
societies. This sense of justice, the law, and fairness may be
influenced by historic political norms. For instance, countries with a more
authoritarian past, like Chile and Türkiye, show a higher tendency towards
law obedience, possibly reflecting the societal norms influenced by their
historical experiences. However, countries with more liberal traditions, such
as Belgium and the Netherlands, demonstrate a higher tolerance for ignoring
the law when necessary. (Ipsos Global) 25 June, 2024 Source: https://www.ipsos.com/en/global-attitudes-crime-and-law-enforcement 848-857-43-31/Polls More People View The U.S.
Positively Than China Across 35 Surveyed Countries
More people around the world have a positive view of
the United States than China, according to a Pew
Research Center survey of 35 countries. A median of 54% of adults in
these nations have a favorable
view of the U.S., while a median of 35% see China favorably.
Views of the U.S. are broadly positive across the
high- and middle-income
countries we surveyed between January and May:
Favorability ratings of the U.S. range from a high
of 86% in Poland to a low of 9% in Tunisia. And 71% of Americans themselves
have a positive view of their country. When it comes to China, people in high- and
middle-income countries have markedly different opinions:
Indeed, there’s only one high-income country where a
majority of adults have a favorable opinion of China – Singapore, where 67%
hold this view. By comparison, majorities are favorable in more than half of
the middle-income countries surveyed. When it comes to differences in views of the U.S. and China, a few
countries stand out:
Opinions of the U.S. and China have fluctuated
somewhat since last year in the 22 countries where 2023 trend data is
available. But there is only one – Spain – where views of the U.S. have
become more negative while views of China have become more positive.
Elsewhere, views of only one country have shifted significantly. And in
Israel, views of both the
U.S. and China have become more negative. Confidence in Biden and Xi
People in the surveyed countries also tend to have
more confidence in U.S. President Joe Biden than Chinese President Xi Jinping
to do the right thing regarding world affairs. A median of 43% of adults
across 34 countries (excluding the U.S.) have confidence in Biden, compared
with a median of 24% who have confidence Xi. Again, there are major differences in views between
high- and middle-income countries:
Malaysia, Singapore, Tunisia and Turkey are the only
surveyed countries where more people have confidence in Xi than Biden. In most other countries, more people have confidence
in Biden than Xi. In fact, in several of these countries – including Germany,
Japan and South Korea – people are at least 40 percentage points more likely
to have confidence in the American president than in his Chinese counterpart. (PEW) 09 July, 2024 |
