BUSINESS & POLITICS IN THE WORLD

 

GLOBAL OPINION REPORT NO. 839-844

 

 

Week: March 18 – April 28, 2024

 

Presentation: May 03, 2024

 

 

Contents

 

839-844-43-28/Commentary: How U.S. Muslims Are Experiencing The Israel-Hamas War 3

ASIA   15

BOJ Survey Finds Less Optimistic Manufacturers, But Happier Service Sector 15

More Than 40% Want To Work Until They Reach 66 Or Over 16

South Korea’s President Faces A Crucial Referendum In Parliamentary Election. 16

MENA   18

Tunisian Political Views: Splintered And Confused. 18

AFRICA.. 20

74 In 100 Nigerian Women Not Aware Of Support Programmes For Women. 20

30 Years Of Democracy: South Africa's 2024 Elections Marked By Uncertainty And A Desire For Change. 22

WEST EUROPE.. 23

AI In Journalism: How Would Public Trust In The News Be Affected. 24

Sadiq Khan Holds 19pt Lead Over Susan Hall With Two Weeks To Go. 29

How Well Do Britons Understand Inflation. 35

Dissatisfaction With Government On Immigration At Highest Level Since 2015. 37

Half Of Brits Say They Will Listen To Their Friends And Family When Deciding Who To Vote For At The Next General Election. 40

Vaccination: An Information Gap Among Parents Of Children And Seniors. 42

NORTH AMERICA.. 45

Americans’ Use Of Chatgpt Is Ticking Up, But Few Trust Its Election Information. 45

How U.S. Muslims Are Experiencing The Israel-Hamas War 48

Rising Numbers Of Americans Say Jews And Muslims Face A Lot Of Discrimination. 53

About 1 In 4 U.S. Teachers Say Their School Went Into A Gun-Related Lockdown In The Last School Year 58

Majority Of U.S. Catholics Express Favorable View Of Pope Francis. 63

In Tight Presidential Race, Voters Are Broadly Critical Of Both Biden And Trump. 72

A Growing Share Of Americans Have Little Or No Confidence In Netanyahu. 76

Number Of Canadians Cheering For “Any” Canadian Team To Win The Stanley Cup Rises 7 Points From 2016. 79

Seven-In-Ten Gen Z, Millennials Say Trudeau’s Government Not Working In Their Interest 83

AUSTRALIA.. 91

Mortgage Stress Declined In March As Household Incomes Increased And The RBA Left Interest Rates Unchanged  91

Saying It With Flowers Tops The $1 Billion Cash Splash On Mum For 12 May. 94

MULTICOUNTRY STUDIES. 95

Global Study Aims To Uncover How Humans Flourish, A Study Across 22 Nations. 95

Close To Nine In 10 In Favour Of Global Rules Banning Plastics In 32 Countries. 98

Stress Levels Rise Around The World, Views Of People In 39 Countries. 99

Earth Day 2024: Changing Attitudes And Actions Towards Climate Change, A 33 Country Survey. 101

 

INTRODUCTORY NOTE

 

This weekly report consists of twenty-seven surveys. The report includes four multi-country studies from different states across the globe.

 

839-844-43-28/Commentary: How U.S. Muslims Are Experiencing The Israel-Hamas War

U.S. Muslims are more sympathetic to the Palestinian people than many other Americans are, despite the fact that relatively few Muslims in the United States are Palestinian themselves, according to a Pew Research Center survey conducted in February. And only about a quarter of Muslims in the survey identify as Arab or of Arab ancestry.

Muslim Americans are also highly critical of President Joe Biden’s handling of the war between Israel and Hamas.

Meanwhile, a majority of Muslim Americans (70%) say discrimination against Muslims in our society has increased since the start of the war, and about half (53%) say news about the war makes them feel afraid.

Here’s a closer look at these and other findings from our new survey.

How U.S. Muslims view America’s role in the war 

A bar chart showing that most U.S. Muslims say Biden is favoring the Israelis too much.

Only 6% of Muslim adults believe that the U.S. is striking the right balance between the Israelis and Palestinians, according to the February survey.

Most Muslims (60%) instead say Biden is favoring the Israelis too much, while just 3% say he is favoring the Palestinians too much. Another 30% are not sure.

A bar chart showing that Muslims in the U.S. have equally unfavorable views of Biden and Trump.

Muslim Americans have been strongly Democratic in the past and remain so – 66% of Muslim registered voters in the survey identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party. (The survey includes 298 Muslim registered voters for an effective sample size of 94 and a margin of error of plus or minus 10.1 points.) But Biden’s handling of the war has led some U.S. Muslims to cast protest votes against him in Democratic primaries this year.

A bar chart showing that most U.S. Muslims strongly favor U.S. humanitarian aid to Palestinians.

Muslims’ views of Biden are broadly negative, according to our survey: Only 36% view him positively. In fact, Muslims’ views of Biden are broadly similar to their views of former President Donald Trump (35% favorable), despite the fact that most Muslims felt Trump was unfriendly toward Muslims when he was president.

In the current war between Israel and Hamas, 69% of Muslim Americans favor the U.S. providing humanitarian aid to help Palestinian civilians. In contrast, most Muslims (65%) oppose America providing military aid to Israel to help in its war against Hamas.

How U.S. Muslims see the Palestinian, Israeli people and their leaders

A bar chart showing that most U.S. Muslims say their sympathies lie entirely or mostly with Palestinians.

While around a third of Muslim Americans (32%) have some sympathy for both the Israeli people and the Palestinian people, nearly two-thirds (64%) say their sympathies lie either entirely or mostly with the Palestinian people. Among the larger American public, by comparison, relatively few adults (16%) are entirely or mostly sympathetic toward the Palestinian people.

When it comes to the Israeli government, only 10% of U.S. Muslims have a favorable view. In fact, Muslims are more likely to have a favorable view of Hamas (37%), which has controlled Gaza, than of the Israeli government. Still, 58% of Muslims have an unfavorable view of Hamas.

A slight majority of Muslims (59%) have a favorable opinion of the Palestinian Authority, which some experts have suggested may take control of the Gaza Strip if Hamas is removed from power. The Palestinian Authority governs the West Bank and has not had control over the Gaza Strip since Hamas won elections in 2006.

A dot plot showing that most U.S. Muslims see Hamas negatively – but still more positively than they see the Israeli government.

How U.S. Muslims perceive discrimination in the U.S. since the start of the war

Most Muslim Americans (70%) believe discrimination against Muslims in our society has increased since the start of the Israel-Hamas war. A much smaller share of the U.S. public overall (38%) says the same.

A bar chart showing that 70% of U.S. Muslims say discrimination against them has risen since the Israel-Hamas war began.

How U.S. Muslims are engaging with and following the war

A dot plot showing that about half of U.S. Muslims say news about the Israel-Hamas war makes them feel afraid.

Muslim Americans are more likely than Americans overall to feel afraid when hearing or reading news about the war. Around half of Muslims (53%) say this, compared with 37% of all U.S. adults. Muslim Americans are also more likely than U.S. adults overall to feel exhausted when consuming news about the war.

Around four-in-ten Muslim Americans say they are following the war extremely or very closely, while another 27% are somewhat following it. Still, roughly a third of U.S. Muslims (32%) are not following the war too closely or at all. Jewish Americans, by comparison, are following the war much more closely, according to our survey: 61% say they are following it extremely or very closely and 11% say they are following it not too or not at all closely.

About a third of U.S. Muslims could not correctly identify Benjamin Netanyahu as the current prime minister of Israel. And about three-in-ten Muslims could not correctly identify Hamas as the group behind the Oct. 7 attack against Israel or knew that most of the deaths in the Israel-Hamas war have been among Palestinians and not Israelis. Even so, roughly seven-in-ten correctly answered each question.

(PEW)

02 April 2024

Source: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/04/02/how-us-muslims-are-experiencing-the-israel-hamas-war/

 

SUMMARY OF POLLS

ASIA

(Japan)

BOJ Survey Finds Less Optimistic Manufacturers, But Happier Service Sector

The Bank of Japan’s “tankan” report said sentiment among large manufacturers, which include auto and electronics giants, declined in March for the first time in a year, standing at plus 11, down two points from December. The average market forecast by Japanese news service Kyodo was 9. The tankan, carried out every three months, surveys about 9,000 Japanese companies and measures corporate sentiment by subtracting the number of companies saying business conditions are negative from those saying they are positive.

(Asahi Shimbun)

01 April 2024

 

More Than 40% Want To Work Until They Reach 66 Or Over

Upward of 40 percent of working people are hoping to work until they reach the age of “66 or higher,” according to an opinion poll. The percentage figure includes those who have already achieved that goal. The findings, released by the Cabinet Office on March 1, revealed that 42.6 percent of respondents, up 5 points from the previous survey five years earlier, selected that option in the survey on life plans and pensions. As in the previous poll, most respondents, or 28.5 percent, said they want to work until turning 61 through 65. However, the ratio was down 2.2 points.

(Asahi Shimbun)

10 April 2024

 

(South Korea)

South Korea’s President Faces A Crucial Referendum In Parliamentary Election

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol faces a crucial referendum Wednesday in a parliamentary election that could determine whether he becomes a lame duck or enjoys a mandate to pursue key policies for his remaining three years in office. In the months ahead of the election, the conservatives supporting Yoon and their liberal rivals exchanged toxic rhetoric and mudslinging, a sign of a deepening domestic divide. Regardless of the results, Yoon will stay in power, but a failure by his governing People Power Party to restore a parliamentary majority could hurt Yoon’s push for his agenda and further intensify the conservative-liberal fighting.

(Asahi Shimbun)

10 April 2024

 

MENA

(Tunisia)

Tunisian Political Views: Splintered And Confused

A recent poll by the Arab Barometer, shows that the most pertinent of these lessons may be those drawn by Tunisians themselves about their country’s past political transition and what democracy has to offer to them in the future. 73 percent “agree” or “strongly agree” that the “economy is weak under democracy” compared to a mere 17 percent who used to feel that way in 2011. Also, 73 percent believe democracy is “indecisive,” a huge increase of that viewpoint compared with only 19 percent more than a decade ago.

(Arabbarometer)

16 April 2024

 

AFRICA

(Nigeria)

74 In 100 Nigerian Women Not Aware Of Support Programmes For Women

A new public opinion poll conducted by NOIPolls in the week commencing February 26th, 2024, has revealed that 74 percent of adult female Nigerians are not aware of any socioeconomic support program specifically dedicated to women in their respective communities. In addition, the poll revealed that the top three important socioeconomic support programs mentioned are access to healthcare and reproductive rights (48 percent), leadership development initiatives like workshops (40 percent) and affordable childcare options amongst other support programs mentioned.

(NOI Polls)

18 April 2024

 

(South Africa)

30 Years Of Democracy: South Africa's 2024 Elections Marked By Uncertainty And A Desire For Change

The latest Ipsos poll, conducted through face-to-face interviews in March and April 2024, surveyed a randomly selected national sample across all nine provinces, settlement types, and rural areas in South Africa. Those who indicated that they were registered to vote (a total of 2,545) were separately analysed. The results for registered voters were weighted and projected using the IEC registration figures, which indicated that the voters’ roll contains 27,698,201 names. Nationally, only 38% believe that the ANC will live up to their election promises, and the party's support base has long been concentrated in rural areas.

(Ipsos South Africa)

26 April 2024

 

WEST EUROPE

(UK)

AI In Journalism: How Would Public Trust In The News Be Affected

Approximately half of Britons (48%) think the impact of AI will be more negative than positive, including 12% who think no good will come from AI in journalism whatsoever. To date, few Britons – just 7% – believe they have at some point read a news article that was written by an AI. But the expectation among the public is that the introduction of AI to journalism is going to do more harm than good. By contrast, only 6% think it will do more good than harm, and a statistical 0% say the impact of AI would be entirely positive with no drawbacks. A quarter (23%) think AI in journalism will do bad and good equally.

(YouGov UK)

11 April 2024

 

Sadiq Khan Holds 19pt Lead Over Susan Hall With Two Weeks To Go

Earlier in the month our national MRP showed Labour on track to win all but 10 of London’s 75 Westminster constituencies, and now our latest London poll shows that Sadiq Khan is on course to romp home to a third term as mayor. Currently 46% of London voters say they intend to back the Labour incumbent, compared to only 27% who are voting for his Conservative opponent, Susan Hall.

(YouGov UK)

19 April 2024

 

How Well Do Britons Understand Inflation

The cost of living crisis has been the dominant issue in the UK for more than a year – so much so that Rishi Sunak made a promise to half inflation as one of his ‘five pledges’ at the beginning of 2023 (a task that only 27% of Britons think he is performing well at). If you ask them directly, 77% of Britons say they understand what inflation is well, including 20% who say they understand it “very well”. A further 17% say they don’t understand it very well, and 4% say they don’t understand it at all.

(YouGov UK)

24 April 2024

 

Dissatisfaction With Government On Immigration At Highest Level Since 2015

Some 69% of the public say they are dissatisfied and just 9% satisfied, according to the Immigration Attitudes Tracker from Ipsos and British Future – the highest level of unhappiness in the tracker’s history. The survey was conducted online with 3,000 adults across Britain between 17 – 28 February 2024. Only 16% of current Conservative supporters – and just 8% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 – are satisfied with the government’s handling of immigration. 55% of current Conservative supporters and 71% of 2019 Conservative voters are dissatisfied. Some 10% of Labour supporters say they are satisfied, while 72% are not.

(Ipsos MORI)

25 March 2024

 

Half Of Brits Say They Will Listen To Their Friends And Family When Deciding Who To Vote For At The Next General Election

New polling from Ipsos explores how the public follow stories about politics and current affairs, and who they will listen to most when it comes to deciding how to vote at the next General Election. Almost two thirds (65%) said that they have been following news stories about politics and current affairs closely, compared to a third (34%) who said that they have not been following them closely. Those aged 55=75 are a little more likely to be paying attention (72%) than those aged under 55 (62%).  

(Ipsos MORI)

11 April 2024

 

(France)

Vaccination: An Information Gap Among Parents Of Children And Seniors

This survey demonstrates a lack of information on the world of vaccination among parents of children and seniors: More than 6 out of 10 parents do not know that meningococcal meningitis is an infection that particularly affects children and adolescents; Still 8 out of 10 people aged 60 and over are unaware of the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV); 93% of people aged 65 and over do not, wrongly, believe they are at greater risk of contracting shingles than the rest of the population.

(Ipsos France)

25 April 2024

 

NORTH AMERICA

(USA)

Americans’ Use Of Chatgpt Is Ticking Up, But Few Trust Its Election Information

It’s been more than a year since ChatGPT’s public debut set the tech world abuzz. And Americans’ use of the chatbot is ticking up: 23% of U.S. adults say they have ever used it, according to a Pew Research Center survey conducted in February, up from 18% in July 2023. Adults under 30 stand out: 43% of these young adults have used ChatGPT, up 10 percentage points since last summer. Use of the chatbot is also up slightly among those ages 30 to 49 and 50 to 64. Still, these groups remain less likely than their younger peers to have used the technology. Just 6% of Americans 65 and up have used ChatGPT.

(PEW)

26 March 2024

 

How U.S. Muslims Are Experiencing The Israel-Hamas War

U.S. Muslims are more sympathetic to the Palestinian people than many other Americans are, despite the fact that relatively few Muslims in the United States are Palestinian themselves, according to a Pew Research Center survey conducted in February. And only about a quarter of Muslims in the survey identify as Arab or of Arab ancestry. Meanwhile, a majority of Muslim Americans (70%) say discrimination against Muslims in our society has increased since the start of the war, and about half (53%) say news about the war makes them feel afraid.

(PEW)

02 April 2024

 

Rising Numbers Of Americans Say Jews And Muslims Face A Lot Of Discrimination

Many Americans particularly sense that discrimination against Muslims and Jews has risen since the start of the Israel-Hamas war. The vast majority of U.S. Muslims and Jews themselves agree: Seven-in-ten Muslims and nine-in-ten Jews surveyed say they have felt an increase in discrimination against their respective groups since the war began in October. 74% of U.S. Jews and 60% of U.S. Muslims surveyed say they have felt offended by something they saw on the news or social media about the Israel-Hamas war.

(PEW)

02 April 2024

 

About 1 In 4 U.S. Teachers Say Their School Went Into A Gun-Related Lockdown In The Last School Year

Twenty-five years after the mass shooting at Columbine High School in Colorado, a majority of public K-12 teachers (59%) say they are at least somewhat worried about the possibility of a shooting ever happening at their school. This includes 18% who say they’re extremely or very worried, according to a new Pew Research Center survey. Another 31% of teachers say they are not too worried about a shooting occurring at their school. Only 7% of teachers say they are not at all worried.

(PEW)

11 April 2024

 

Majority Of U.S. Catholics Express Favorable View Of Pope Francis

A new Pew Research Center survey finds that 75% of U.S. Catholics view Pope Francis favorably, down 8 percentage points since we last asked this question in 2021 and 15 points below his peak favorability rating, which was 90% in early 2015. Since becoming pope in 2013, Francis often has received favorable ratings from 80% or more of U.S. Catholics. He generally has been viewed more positively than his immediate predecessor, Pope Benedict XVI, but less positively than Benedict’s predecessor, Pope John Paul II.

(PEW)

12 April 2024

 

In Tight Presidential Race, Voters Are Broadly Critical Of Both Biden And Trump

With the election still more than six months away, a new Pew Research Center survey finds that the presidential race is virtually tied: 49% of registered voters favor Donald Trump or lean toward voting for him, while 48% support or lean toward Joe Biden. More than a third of voters say they are extremely or very confident that Trump has the physical fitness (36%) and mental fitness (38%) needed to do the job of president. Far fewer say the same of Biden (15% are at least very confident in his physical fitness; 21% are extremely or very confident in his mental fitness). Majorities say they are not too or not at all confident in Biden’s physical and mental fitness.

(PEW)

24 April 2024

 

A Growing Share Of Americans Have Little Or No Confidence In Netanyahu

A majority of Americans (53%) have little or no confidence in Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to do the right thing regarding world affairs, including 25% who have no confidence in him at all. Three-in-ten say they have at least some confidence in him, according to a Pew Research Center survey of 3,600 U.S. adults conducted April 1-7, 2024. The share of Americans who have no confidence in Netanyahu has increased 11 percentage points since 2023. This includes an 8-point increase in the share who have no confidence in him at all.

(PEW)

25 April 2024

 

(Canada)

Number Of Canadians Cheering For “Any” Canadian Team To Win The Stanley Cup Rises 7 Points From 2016

New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds renewed hope that one of Vancouver, Edmonton, Winnipeg, or Toronto will bring Canadians a desperately sought after Stanley Cup parade. This, more than three decades after the Montreal Canadiens won the Cup in 1993. Asked which team they believe represents Canada’s best opportunity, Canadian hockey fans are divided equally between the Toronto Maple Leafs (21%) and Edmonton Oilers (20%). Fewer, but still 14 per cent say the Vancouver Canucks will be the team to break the drought, while just five per cent believe the Winnipeg Jets have what it takes.

(Angus Reid Institute)

15 April 2024

 

Seven-In-Ten Gen Z, Millennials Say Trudeau’s Government Not Working In Their Interest

Canadians’ top issues vary by generation but have been consistent for several years, with health care and affordability rating as high concerns since the end of the COVID-19 pandemic. On health care, 28 per cent of Canadians say Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre is the best choice. Trudeau (14%) finishes behind NDP leader Jagmeet Singh (22%) and none of the above (22%) and is tied with “not sure” (14%). On housing affordability, Poilievre again leads (31%) and Trudeau (13%) trails “none of them” (24%), and Singh (19%) and ties “not sure” (13%). The Conservative leader also outpaces Singh and Trudeau combined when it comes to issues of the economy and handling the deficit.

(Angus Reid Institute)

25 April 2024

 

AUSTRALIA

Mortgage Stress Declined In March As Household Incomes Increased And The RBA Left Interest Rates Unchanged

The level of mortgage stress in March is the lowest so far this year and this month’s decline has been driven by rising household incomes which has reduced the financial pressure on some mortgage holders. The figure of mortgage stress in March is very similar to the number of mortgage holders considered ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress in the three months to December 2023 which was 1,527,000 (30.3%). The proportion of mortgage holders now ‘At Risk’ (30.3%) is well below the record high reached during the Global Financial Crisis because of the larger size of the Australian mortgage market today. The record high of 35.6% of mortgage holders in mortgage stress was reached in mid-2008.

(Roy Morgan)

23 April 2024

 

Saying It With Flowers Tops The $1 Billion Cash Splash On Mum For 12 May

Australians are set to spend $995 million on Mother’s Day this year – up $70 million, or 7.5% from 2023 – with flowers, alcohol, or an experience topping the gifts for mothers and others, research from the Australian Retailers Association (ARA) in collaboration with Roy Morgan reveals.  Despite the increased spend, 400,000 fewer people are set to buy Mother’s Day gifts this year – highlighting the impact of the cost-of-living crunch.

(Roy Morgan)

24 April 2024

 

MULTICOUNTRY STUDIES

Global Study Aims To Uncover How Humans Flourish, A Study Across 22 Nations

The inaugural results from the multiyear Global Flourishing study reveal intriguing relationships between religion and how well people’s lives are going. The mean flourishing score falls between 6.5 and 8.0 in most of the 21 countries and one territory where data are collected. The mean score was below 6.5 only in Türkiye and Japan, and above 8.0 only in Indonesia. In the United States, the mean score was 7.11.

(Gallup)

28 March 2024

Source: https://news.gallup.com/poll/642680/global-study-aims-uncover-humans-flourish.aspx

 

Close To Nine In 10 In Favour Of Global Rules Banning Plastics In 32 Countries

90%, on average across 32 countries, agree to have global rules banning chemicals used in plastic that are hazardous to human health and the environment. 87% agree it’s essential/important to reduce the amount of plastic produced globally. The same proportion (87%) say types of plastic that can’t be easily recycled in all of the countries where they are used should be banned. More than eight in 10 (85%) agree it’s key to have global rules banning unnecessary single-use plastic products such as shopping bags, cutlery, cups and plates.

(Ipsos Global)

16 April 2024

Source: https://www.ipsos.com/en/close-nine-10-favour-global-rules-banning-plastics

 

Stress Levels Rise Around The World, Views Of People In 39 Countries

The Worldwide Independent Network of MR (WIN), the world’s leading independent association in market research and polling, reveals the Annual WIN World Survey, exploring the views and beliefs of over 33,000 people in 39 countries across the globe. The perception of health levels around the world is positive, with 57% feeling healthy, and 17% very healthy. Numbers, however, are still slightly below the pre-pandemic level when a total of 76% globally reported to feel healthy or very healthy.

(WIN)

17 April 2024

Source: https://winmr.com/stress-levels-rise-around-the-world/

 

Earth Day 2024: Changing Attitudes And Actions Towards Climate Change, A 33 Country Survey

In our annual Earth Day report, we explore how attitudes to climate change are changing, who is responsible for leading the fight against the climate emergency, and what actions people are willing to take. Young men (Millennial and Gen Z) are more fatalistic than women and older men on the topic of the climate crisis. A third of Millennial and Gen Z men say it is too late to do anything about climate change, compared to less than one in five Baby Boomer men and women.  Two-thirds across 33 countries think countries like the US, GB, France, Canada and Germany should pay more to solve climate change. At the same time, France and Canada have seen an increase in people feeling they are being asked to sacrifice too much to fight climate change, with both countries now more likely to say this is the case than not.  

(Ipsos Global)

19 April 2024

Source: https://www.ipsos.com/en/earth-day-2024-changing-attitudes-and-actions-towards-climate-change

 

ASIA

839-844-43-01/Polls

BOJ Survey Finds Less Optimistic Manufacturers, But Happier Service Sector

A key Japanese central bank report said Monday that sentiment among big manufacturers has sagged but that optimism is at a three-decade high among large business outside the manufacturing sector.

The Bank of Japan’s “tankan” report said sentiment among large manufacturers, which include auto and electronics giants, declined in March for the first time in a year, standing at plus 11, down two points from December. The average market forecast by Japanese news service Kyodo was 9.

The index for large-scale non-manufacturers, including the service sector, hit a 33-year high at plus 34 points, up two points from the last report in December.

The tankan, carried out every three months, surveys about 9,000 Japanese companies and measures corporate sentiment by subtracting the number of companies saying business conditions are negative from those saying they are positive.

The optimism among the non-manufacturing businesses reflects the return of tourism, both overseas and domestic, which had been hurt by the pandemic. Incoming travelers have recently outpaced pre-pandemic levels.

The downturn in the views among manufacturers reflects production stoppages at Daihatsu Motor Co., a Toyota Motor Corp. subsidiary that specializes in small vehicles. Daihatsu has acknowledged it didn’t carry out proper safety tests.

The Japanese economy has tended to stagnate in recent years, with slow wage increases as well as deflation, or the continuous sliding down of prices, rather than the inflation affecting some parts of the world.

Another negative has been soaring energy prices. Japan imports almost all its oil.

The weakening currency has also hurt some sectors. The U.S. dollar is recently trading at about 150 yen, up dramatically from about 130 yen a year ago.

A weak yen works as a plus for encouraging tourism. It also helps exporters, like Toyota and Nintendo, by boosting the value of their overseas earnings when converted into yen.

The Bank of Japan raised its benchmark interest rate last month for the first time in 17 years, ending a longstanding policy of negative rates meant to boost the economy.

The bank has an inflation target of 2% that it uses as a benchmark for whether Japan has finally escaped deflationary tendencies. It said monetary policy will remain easy for some time, while noting that wages and profits at companies were improving.

The tankan report’s forecast for future sentiment among large manufacturers stood at 10, while the index for large non-manufacturers was 27, both lower than the levels reported Monday.

(Asahi Shimbun)

01 April 2024

Source: https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/15216236

 

839-844-43-02/Polls

More Than 40% Want To Work Until They Reach 66 Or Over

Upward of 40 percent of working people are hoping to work until they reach the age of “66 or higher,” according to an opinion poll.

The percentage figure includes those who have already achieved that goal. 

The findings, released by the Cabinet Office on March 1, revealed that 42.6 percent of respondents, up 5 points from the previous survey five years earlier, selected that option in the survey on life plans and pensions.

As in the previous poll, most respondents, or 28.5 percent, said they want to work until turning 61 through 65. However, the ratio was down 2.2 points.

The percentage of those hoping to work until they turn “71 and over” spiked 5 points, underlining the fact that people tend to work longer these days.

The latest survey included, for the first time, a question about the influence of an employee pension system provision wherein pension payments can be reduced for active elderly workers earning a specific wage threshold.

The most popular reply, at 44.4 percent, was that they “adjust working hours at a company and elsewhere, careful not to see their pension payments slashed.” This outcome indicates the existence of a “barrier for elderly people to seek employment.”

In the first attempt of its kind, the poll also asked whether respondents rely on private pension pots as the government moves to encourage their use. As many as 41.4 percent said they had never signed such pension contracts.

The poll was carried out by mail between Nov. 2 and Dec. 10 with an eye toward using the findings when the pension program comes up for revision next year.

Japan revises its pension system once every five years. In earlier surveys, interviews with respondents were conducted in person.

The latest survey targeted 5,000 individuals aged 18 or older. Valid responses were received from 2,833 people, or 56.7 percent of the total.

(Asahi Shimbun)

10 April 2024

Source: https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/15199871

 

839-844-43-03/Polls

South Korea’s President Faces A Crucial Referendum In Parliamentary Election

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol faces a crucial referendum Wednesday in a parliamentary election that could determine whether he becomes a lame duck or enjoys a mandate to pursue key policies for his remaining three years in office.

In the months ahead of the election, the conservatives supporting Yoon and their liberal rivals exchanged toxic rhetoric and mudslinging, a sign of a deepening domestic divide. Regardless of the results, Yoon will stay in power, but a failure by his governing People Power Party to restore a parliamentary majority could hurt Yoon’s push for his agenda and further intensify the conservative-liberal fighting.

Since taking office in 2022 for a single five-year term, Yoon, a former top prosecutor, has been grappling with low approval ratings and a liberal opposition-controlled parliament that has limited his major policy platforms.

Pre-election surveys indicate that the liberal opposition parties will likely maintain a dominant position in the single-chamber, 300-member National Assembly. But many observers say it’s still too early to determine who will win the election because many electorates are being closely fought and many moderate voters will make last-minute choices.

“What would matter to the People Power Party is whether it can become the biggest party or the second biggest party,” said Choi Jin, director of the Seoul-based Institute of Presidential Leadership. “If his party loses the election, Yoon will find it difficult to move forward even a single step on state affairs.”

Of the 300 seats, 254 are to be elected through direct votes in local districts and the other 46 allotted by the proportion of the votes cast for the parties. Election observers say candidates in about 50 to 55 local districts are in neck-and-neck races.

Polling stations opened at 6 a.m. and will close at 6 p.m. South Korea has 44 million eligible voters, and about 31% of them, or nearly 14 million people, have already cast ballots during two-day early voting last week. It was the highest turnout of its kind in the history of South Korean parliamentary elections, according to the National Election Commission.

South Korea’s toxic conservative-liberal division deepened during the 2022 presidential election, during which Yoon and his main liberal rival Lee Jae-myung spent months demonizing each other. Yoon eventually beat Lee by the narrowest margin in the country’s presidential race.

Lee, now the chairman of the opposition Democratic Party, is a harsh critic of Yoon’s major policies and is eying another presidential bid. He faces an array of corruption investigations that he argues were politically motivated by Yoon’s government.

There was a brief soul-searching about South Korea’s divisive politics after Lee was stabbed in the neck in January by a man who, according to police, tried to kill Lee to prevent him from becoming president. But as the parliamentary election approached, the rival parties began churning out abusive rhetoric and crude insults against each other.

Ruling party leader Han Dong-hoon called Lee “a criminal” and labeled his past comments as “trash.” Lee’s party spokesperson described Han’s mouth as a “trash bin.” Han accused Lee of using a sexist remark against a female ruling party candidate.

During one of his final campaign events on Tuesday, Han argued that giving too many seats to Lee’s Democratic Party will throw South Korea into political turmoil. “Tomorrow’s 12 hours will determine whether the Republic of Korea will plunge into shocking chaos and despair or overcome a crisis,” Han said, using South Korea’s official name.

Speaking ahead of his corruption trial at a Seoul court, Lee urged voters to punish the Yoon government, which he said has used prosecutors to suppress opponents. “I earnestly ask you to hand out your judgement on a government that betrays and goes against the people,” Lee said.

Chung Jin-young, a former dean of the Graduate School of Pan-Pacific International Studies at Kyung Hee University, predicted that the opposition parties could win a combined 150-180 seats.

“That would cause a political deadlock for the Republic of Korea for the next three years, as both the ruling and opposition parties can’t pursue things unilaterally and won’t likely make terms with each other,” Chung said.

Earlier this year, Yoon saw rising approval ratings over his strong push to drastically increase the number of medical students despite vehement protests by incumbent doctors. Yoon has said he aims to create more doctors to brace for the country’s rapidly aging population, but thousands of young doctors have gone on strike, saying that schools can’t handle an abrupt increase in students.

The doctors’ walkouts eventually left Yoon facing growing calls to find a compromise, with patients and others experiencing delays of surgeries and other inconveniences. Yoon’s ruling party is also struggling with rising prices of agricultural products and other goods and criticism of Yoon’s personnel management style.

“President Yoon has said a priority would be given to stabilizing prices and livelihoods, but they weren’t stabilized, so I think that will be a big negative for the Yoon government during the election,” Kim Daye, a 32-year-old Seoul resident, said.

(Asahi Shimbun)

10 April 2024

Source: https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/15225416

 

MENA

839-844-43-04/Polls

Tunisian Political Views: Splintered And Confused

As many countries around the world head for elections this year, surveys show the democratic ideal to be very much alive in most nations while scepticism is also growing about the way political systems have evolved.

In the Arab region, democracy building remains as elusive as ever, twelve years after the “Arab spring” upheaval.

Tunisia, which will hold presidential elections next autumn, has a few lessons to offer to the outside world in this regard.

A recent poll by the Arab Barometer, shows that the most pertinent of these lessons may be those drawn by Tunisians themselves about their country’s past political transition and what democracy has to offer to them in the future.

The Tunisians’ take on the post-2011 phase of their history is quite different from the West’s idealised account of the “jasmine revolution,” a narrative often told with overtones of disappointment and frustration. The process followed since 2011 seems to have instilled in Tunisians contrasting and somehow confused visions of how they should be governed and what democratic practice means for them.

Their twelve-year experience has not entrenched their commitment to democracy but has not however totally shaken their belief in the “democratic option”.  In fact, “eight-in-ten affirm that despite its problems, democracy is their preferred political system” while 55 percent reject authoritarianism, the poll tells us.

But most Tunisians see “clear limitations” to democracy. Accordingly, 73 percent “agree” or “strongly agree” that the “economy is weak under democracy” compared to a mere 17 percent who used to feel that way in 2011. Also, 73 percent believe democracy is “indecisive,” a huge increase of that viewpoint compared with only 19 percent more than a decade ago.

The rise in scepticism about democracy is clearly the reflection of failed expectations from the successive governments during “the democratic transition” set in motion after 2011. Ineptitude and endless sniping led to political instability and economic decline while promises rang hollow.

Learning from their past disappointment, Tunisians insist today that while guaranteeing them the freedom to choose their leaders, democracy must grant them the basic services they need among the prerequisites of dignified life.

This perspective explains Tunisians’ assessment of the democratic progress accomplished so far.  If 54 percent find the country more democratic than it used to be before 2011, a total of 46 percent says democratic practice is “less” or at the same level than it used to be under Ben Ali.

This also seems to shape Tunisians’ views about foreign democratic models.

For the majority, best democratic practices find their illustration not in the US or Britain but by in Germany and China.

This perspective, which was missed by much of the political elite for more than ten years after 2011, is likely to shape voters choices for years to come.

The Arab Barometer notes that Tunisians “do not appear to share a common vision for their political future”. More than that, the poll shows that Tunisians’ political vision is in fact splintered and confused, especially when it comes to the political system they feel suits their country best.

No less than 51 percent deem a pluralistic parliamentary system “not suitable” for the country. In fact, only 48 percent would pick such a system. This percentage is ironically comparable to the 44 percent who, at the opposite end of the spectrum, favour a “strong authority”, which would make decisions without considering electoral results nor the views of the opposition.

Then, there is the even more problematic religion-politics nexus. Two-thirds of Tunisians reject “Sharia”(Islamic law)-based rule. Still it is worrying that no less than 37 percent of the public find this kind of rule “suitable”, “somewhat suitable” or “very suitable” for their country.

This is probably one of the most debatable findings of the research. Polling Muslims respondents on Islam-related issues is always tricky. Polling them on Islamic politics is even trickier.  Compliance with “Sharia”, despite its negative connotation in the West, means for many the mere compliance with the faith and not adherence to the harsh interpretation of Islam advocated by Salafists.

As crucial as it might be, ascertaining what is meant by “Sharia”-based rule is not a methodologically easy task.  As the atrophy of Ennahda’s support base in recent years shows, religious sentiment does not always translate into Islamist sympathies in the context of a politically competitive system.

Beyond these features, the poll’s findings point to potential areas of concern regarding Tunisia’s future governance.

First, divisions do not bode well for the building of consensus in a country where the ongoing economic crisis might require a widely-shared adherence by the public to tough decisions, which might need to be taken by the government down the road.

Second, the poll’s figures show a growing disaffection with politics. Only 24 percent of Tunisians say they are interested in public life. Even greater ratios of disengagement from the political process and public life are noted among young people and women.

Based on what successive governments since the fall of the Ben Ali regime have delivered (or more pertinently what they have not delivered) voters are predictably sceptical of government institutions, with the exception of the president, in whom they place a more than 70 percent level of trust.

In the short term, it remains to be seen how these opinion trends could affect the turnout in the forthcoming presidential election, next autumn. The low ratio of participation in legislative polls last year has already delivered ample warning to all political actors. Combined with fractured views about political systems, voter indifference is not what Tunisia needs today.

(Arabbarometer)

16 April 2024

Source: https://www.arabbarometer.org/2024/04/tunisian-political-views-splintered-and-confused/

 

AFRICA

839-844-43-05/Polls

74 In 100 Nigerian Women Not Aware Of Support Programmes For Women

A new public opinion poll conducted by NOIPolls in the week commencing February 26th, 2024, has revealed that 74 percent of adult female Nigerians are not aware of any socioeconomic support program specifically dedicated to women in their respective communities.

Notwithstanding, almost all the female respondents (99 percent) nationwide admitted that socioeconomic support for women is important.

In addition, the poll revealed that the top three important socioeconomic support programs mentioned are access to healthcare and reproductive rights (48 percent), leadership development initiatives like workshops (40 percent) and affordable childcare options amongst other support programs mentioned.

Furthermore, when respondents were asked about their challenges as women, 68 percent stated financial constraints, 31 percent mentioned limited access to employment opportunities and 25 percent disclosed that their challenges are caregiving responsibilities for children and elderly family members.

Similarly, the respondents were asked to state their professional challenges and the top three professional challenges mentioned are limited opportunities for career growth (13 percent), gender discrimination and bias, work-life balance and family responsibilities, and salary gap and unequal remuneration (10 percent each).   

Unfortunately, 96 percent of adult female Nigerians interviewed disclosed that they do not have any socioeconomic support program currently available to them.

With regards to their educational level, out of the 96 percent who stated that there are no socioeconomic programs currently available to them, 98 percent have post-secondary school education while 97 percent have completed tertiary (97 percent). 

https://static.wixstatic.com/media/a24ead_f913142f604840178e17711136171683~mv2.png/v1/fill/w_925,h_1309,al_c,q_90,usm_0.66_1.00_0.01,enc_auto/a24ead_f913142f604840178e17711136171683~mv2.png

https://static.wixstatic.com/media/a24ead_1217cd699ee24bdaa92d53dcc2b14abd~mv2.png/v1/fill/w_925,h_1305,al_c,q_90,usm_0.66_1.00_0.01,enc_auto/a24ead_1217cd699ee24bdaa92d53dcc2b14abd~mv2.png

(NOI Polls)

18 April 2024

Source: https://www.noi-polls.com/post/74-in-100-women-not-aware-of-support-programmes-for-women

 

839-844-43-06/Polls

30 Years Of Democracy: South Africa's 2024 Elections Marked By Uncertainty And A Desire For Change

As registered voters head to the polls on 29 May 2024, they will be handed three ballot papers by IEC (Independent Electoral Commission) officials. While much of the voting process will feel and look familiar, there are several notable changes from previous national and provincial elections. In addition to the introduction of three separate ballot papers, this election will also feature the historic participation of independent candidates for the first time.

Now, three decades after the historic 1994 elections, South Africans are once again facing a pivotal moment. The uncertainty and apprehension surrounding the potential outcome and consequences of the 2024 elections echo the feelings experienced by the nation on 27 April 1994. Notably, more than a third (35%) of registered voters express that there is "no political party that truly represents their views," underscoring the complex political landscape and the desire for change.

The discontent among South African voters is further evidenced with a mere 23% of registered voters believing that the country is moving in the right direction, while two-thirds (66%) think that the country’s current "direction of travel" is wrong. This underscores the need for political parties and candidates to address the concerns of the electorate.

Political party support1

The latest Ipsos poll, conducted through face-to-face interviews in March and April 2024, surveyed a randomly selected national sample across all nine provinces, settlement types, and rural areas in South Africa. Those who indicated that they were registered to vote (a total of 2,545) were separately analysed. The results for registered voters were weighted and projected using the IEC registration figures, which indicated that the voters’ roll contains 27,698,201 names.

The official formation of the uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) party in December 2023 had a profound effect on the distribution of support among the leading political parties over the last few months – as illustrated in the graph overleaf.

political party support for the 2024 south african elections

With only a month remaining before the elections, the political landscape in South Africa is undergoing significant shifts. The ANC, long the dominant force in the country's politics, is struggling to impress voters, with support for the ruling party well below 50%. Nationally, only 38% believe that the ANC will live up to their election promises, and the party's support base has long been concentrated in rural areas.

The emergence of MK has halted the advances made by the EFF in recent years, particularly in KwaZulu-Natal, with some former EFF supporters migrating to the new party. Meanwhile, the DA is maintaining its position, attracting the support of about a fifth of the electorate.

As the campaign enters its final weeks, uncertainty is highest in KwaZulu-Natal, where almost a fifth of the electorate has not yet decided which party or candidate they will vote for. The IFP's support is mainly concentrated in KZN, while Action SA's support comes primarily from Gauteng. Although the FF+ has low overall support, it comes from across the country.

Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal, with 23.6% and 20.7% of the electorate respectively, will once again be the key provinces to watch in this election. With women comprising 55.24% of registered voters, political parties would be wise to focus on the views and opinions of women during the final month of campaigning.

As South Africa prepares to head to the polls, the shifting political alliances, regional uncertainties, and the importance of the female electorate will all play crucial roles in determining the outcome of this historic election. The party support figures discussed here should not be seen as a firm prediction of possible election results, as the next month will no doubt bring much volatility and change to the political environment. Moreover, not all registered voters will turn out to vote on election day and this will also influence final election outcomes. 

(Ipsos South Africa)

26 April 2024

Source: https://www.ipsos.com/en-za/30-years-democracy-south-africas-2024-elections-marked-uncertainty-and-desire-change

 

WEST EUROPE

839-844-43-07/Polls

AI In Journalism: How Would Public Trust In The News Be Affected

Artificial intelligence is coming for the newsroom. German newspaper Bild – the highest selling tabloid in Europe – has said that it expects to make cuts to its editorial staff “due to the opportunities of artificial intelligence”.

Here in the UK, the publisher of the Mirror and the Express has said it is exploring ways in which ChatGPT can be used to help human reporters compiling coverage of topics such as local weather and traffic.

Such a scheme is already in operation in Australia, with News Corp’s Michael Miller telling the World News Media Congress last year that the organisation is producing 3,000 local news stories a week on weather, fuel prices and traffic conditions. Tech news website CNET has come under fire implementing the same model, with simple financial articles producing multiple errors.

To date, few Britons – just 7% – believe they have at some point read a news article that was written by an AI. But the expectation among the public is that the introduction of AI to journalism is going to do more harm than good.

Approximately half of Britons (48%) think the impact of AI will be more negative than positive, including 12% who think no good will come from AI in journalism whatsoever.

By contrast, only 6% think it will do more good than harm, and a statistical 0% say the impact of AI would be entirely positive with no drawbacks. A quarter (23%) think AI in journalism will do bad and good equally.

It is unsurprising, therefore, that the vast majority of Britons (79%) say that media organisations should be required to display on a news article any ways in which that article has been created using the assistance of AI – something which Buzzfeed has implemented for its AI-assisted travel content.

Younger Britons are, however, slightly less likely to be pessimistic about the prospects for AI in journalism than their elders. While 54% of the over-65s think AI in newsrooms will have more drawbacks than benefits, this falls to 32% among 18-24 year olds. And while a mere 3% of older Britons expect more positives than negatives, this stands at 17% among the youngest adults.

Similarly, while 86% of the over-65s want news outlets to have to signpost ways in which AI has been used to contribute to an article, this falls to 63% of 18-24 year olds.

To what extent does AI journalism impact trust in the credibility of a news article?

With strong scepticism towards artificial intelligence in journalism, we sought to quantify quite how much the technology would affect trust in the news.

To test this, we created a randomized test, based on the following question:

To what extent would you trust an article on [randomly-selected news outlet’s] website that had been written by [random selection of: a human journalist / an AI journalist], and had been overseen by [random selection of: a human editor / an AI editor]?

Across all combinations respondents saw in which both the journalist and editor in question were human, 48% said they would have a great deal or fair amount of trust in the article. This is compared to 39% who would have little to no trust in the article.

However, for those combinations where one of these two roles was conducted by an AI, trust levels fall to just a quarter – 25% where the AI is the journalist, and 23% where it is the editor. In both cases, 60% of Britons say they would distrust an article created in such a way.

And where artificial intelligence is fulfilling the roles of both the journalist and the editor, trust slumps to just 13%. Fully 72% of Britons say they would distrust an article created by this AI duet, including 39% who would not trust it “at all”.

Breaking down the results by the category of randomly-selected news outlet* that was included in the question shows the same trend, with a human journalist-editor combination being the most trusted, a single human-AI combination being less trusted (by about the same rate whichever job is given over to the AI), and the double-AI combination being least trusted.

The main difference is simply the greater level of trust in news on broadcast and ‘up-market’ newspaper websites compared to mid-market and tabloid newspaper websites.

What journalism tasks is it acceptable for AI to do?

While the public tends to have negative expectations for artificial intelligence in journalism, that is not to say that they don’t see any ways in which it can be appropriately implemented.

From a list of 15 potential uses for artificial intelligence in the newsroom, two are considered acceptable by large majorities of the public: performing spelling and grammar edits (73%), and translating articles to other languages (67%).

A clump of minor journalistic and editorial tasks are supported by around half of Britons while being opposed by close to a third. These include: generating a summary of an article for readers; choosing an image to use for an article from stock photography websites; performing analysis of datasets for journalists to use; suggesting article topics for journalists; fact-checking claims made in a draft article written by a human journalist; suggesting interview questions for journalists to ask someone.

By contrast, Britons are divided about 40-40 on AI conducting research for a journalist on a topic, as well as writing article headlines.

When it comes to fully AI-generated content, resistance grows with the complexity of the article. For instance, while the public tend to be ok with artificial intelligence writing and publishing “short routine data-driven stories such as financial reports, sports scores, or weather updates” (by 48% to 35%), they are opposed to a scenario where it would be writing and publishing “short articles reporting the content of press releases put out by a company / organisation / government and drawing in simple additional context relevant to the story” (by 52% to 26%).

And support falls to just 16% for AI writing and publishing “long articles that investigate an issue in depth that would typically include expert or eyewitness interviews”, with 67% opposing giving such creative control over to artificial intelligence.

Most are likewise to giving an AI program editorial sign-off over whether an article written by a human journalist conforms enough to journalistic standards/best practice that it can be published (55% to 22%).

The public are most vehemently opposed, at 70%, to AI conducting interviews on behalf of journalists. Only 14% say this would be acceptable.

Across the board, young Britons are more willing to see AI taking on newsroom functions than their elders.

This gap is largest when it comes to headline writing and article summaries (both of which 18-24 year olds are 23 points more likely to say are acceptable than over-65s).

But they are also noticeably more accepting of AI writing and publishing wholesale articles, even longer, more in depth ones: 30% of 18-24 year olds say this would be ok, compared to 13% of over-65s.

(YouGov UK)

11 April 2024

Source: https://yougov.co.uk/technology/articles/49105-ai-in-journalism-how-would-public-trust-in-the-news-be-affected

 

839-844-43-08/Polls

Sadiq Khan Holds 19pt Lead Over Susan Hall With Two Weeks To Go

A fortnight before the mayoral election, most Londoners still don’t have a view of the Tory candidate

Earlier in the month our national MRP showed Labour on track to win all but 10 of London’s 75 Westminster constituencies, and now our latest London poll shows that Sadiq Khan is on course to romp home to a third term as mayor.

Currently 46% of London voters say they intend to back the Labour incumbent, compared to only 27% who are voting for his Conservative opponent, Susan Hall.

Elsewhere in the field of candidates, the Greens’ Zoe Garbett takes 9% of the vote, and Lib Dem Rob Blackie is on 8%. Howard Cox of Reform UK receives 6% of the vote.

Labour likewise have a commanding lead in Westminster voting intention in the capital, at 55% to the Conservatives’ 16%. While Khan’s 19 point lead over Hall is a slight tightening compared to February’s 25 point lead (although the changes are within the margin of error from last time), Labour’s Westminster vote share has grown by four points to 39.

That these two trends are diverging suggests that our polling is now starting to pick up mayoral voting intention proper, with people finally setting their minds to the contest now that it is imminent, rather than simply repeating their Westminster voting intention.

This could explain the increased polarization between voters in inner versus outer London since the previous poll. In February, inner Londoners were backing Sadiq Khan by 54% to outer Londoners’ 46%. Since then, Khan’s tally among Inner Londoners has increased to 64% but dropped among outer Londoners to 38% - now within the margin of error of Hall’s 33%.

Susan who?

There is little to suggest that the Conservative challenger can overturn Labour’s lead by 2 May: with just two weeks to go until polling day, most Londoners (53%) still don’t have a view of Susan Hall. Opinion among those who have heard of Hall tends to be negative: only 18% have a favourable opinion of her, while 28% have an unfavourable one.

By contrast, 39% of Londoners have a positive view of Sadiq Khan, while 49% have a negative impression of the Labour mayor. While this still gives him a net negative rating overall (-10), he nevertheless has the highest ‘favourable’ figure of all politicians we asked about. National Labour leader Keir Starmer is similarly popular in the capital, with 37% having a positive view of him and 44% having a negative view (for a slightly better ‘net’ score of -7).

Prime minister Rishi Sunak is far more unpopular, with a net score of -53, as is former mayor and former PM Boris Johnson on -50.

Londoners tend to disapprove of Sadiq Khan’s record as mayor

So while Khan’s victory in the upcoming election looks likely, this does not reflect widespread approval of his record so far.

Only slightly over a third of Londoners think that Khan has done a good job as mayor (36%), with around half saying he’s done poorly (52%).

Even among those Londoners who intend to vote Labour at the coming general election, 34% think that Khan has done a bad job in his eight years in office.

Four in ten Londoners (40%) reckon they could have done a better job as mayor than Khan, although this is lower than the number who say the same of Boris Johnson as mayor (47%).

Only 19% of Londoners think that Khan being returned to office would have a positive impact on their quality of life, compared to 33% who say it would have a negative impact. The largest portion (37%) think it would make no real difference, perhaps unsurprising given that Khan is the incumbent.

Again, however, Susan Hall does not look in a position to seriously challenge the mayor. Londoners tend to be unsure what impact Susan Hall becoming mayor would have on their lives (39%), although those with a view are more likely to think it would be negative (26%) than positive (14%).

What will influence Londoners’ decision of who to vote for?

Given a choice of up to three issues, a majority of Londoners (59%) say that the cost of living is among the most important in deciding how they will vote at the next election. This is a topic that Khan can only tangentially affect – as mayor he has influence over some transport costs like Tube prices and the ULEZ charge.

Second on the list of important issues is crime and policing (41%), followed by housing (34%).

It is perhaps a testament to how unpopular the Conservative party is that Khan’s lead is so high while expectations among Londoners are so negative on the issues they say are most important to them. Seven in ten Londoners (71%) expect the price of driving a car in London to increase if Khan is re-elected (including 43% who expect it to go up by a lot), and 62% expect tube fares to rise (24% by a lot).

Four in ten (39%) expect crime to rise under a third Khan term, compared to only 12% who expect it to fall, and just 33% expect that the amount of new affordable housing will increase under Khan – despite the mayor self-claiming “record-breaking” housing delivery.

Expectations of how things would change under Susan Hall are characterised as usual by large numbers of “don’t know” responses. However, given how hard the Conservatives have campaigned against the recent ULEZ changes and Khan’s so-called ‘war on the motorist’, the party will be very disappointed that only 18% of Londoners think the cost of driving a car in London would fall under their candidate – lower than the 28% who think it would rise. Even those intending to vote Conservative at the general election are split, with 40% expecting the cost to fall while 41% think it would rise or stay static.

Londoners divided on ULEZ expansion

Londoners are split on last year’s expansion of ULEZ, with 42% saying they support the change and 44% opposed. Inhabitants of inner and outer London take opposing views – the expansion is popular in inner London (55% support and 27% oppose) and unpopular in outer London, where the expansion took place (36% support and 53% oppose).

There is, however, plurality support for cancelling the ULEZ expansion, with 47% backing the reversion and 39% wanting to keep it in place. Again, inner and outer London residents stand on opposite sides of the argument.

(YouGov UK)

19 April 2024

Source: https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49199-sadiq-khan-holds-19pt-lead-over-susan-hall-with-two-weeks-to-go

 

839-844-43-09/Polls

How Well Do Britons Understand Inflation

While three quarters say they understand it well, the number who can correctly interpret news on inflation is significantly lower

Last week, the ONS announced that inflation had fallen to 3.2% in March, the lowest it had been since September 2021, although this represented a slightly smaller drop than had been predicted.

The cost of living crisis has been the dominant issue in the UK for more than a year – so much so that Rishi Sunak made a promise to half inflation as one of his ‘five pledges’ at the beginning of 2023 (a task that only 27% of Britons think he is performing well at).

But how well do Britons grasp the concept of inflation in the first place?

If you ask them directly, 77% of Britons say they understand what inflation is well, including 20% who say they understand it “very well”. A further 17% say they don’t understand it very well, and 4% say they don’t understand it at all.

However, when we then put their knowledge to the test, many Britons come up short. When told that the rate of inflation had fallen to 3.2% in March, only 52% of Britons correctly identify that this means that prices are rising more slowly than they were before March.

Three in ten Britons think this means that prices are falling, including 18% who believe it means that they are falling faster than before March and 13% who think it means they are falling more slowly. A further 4% think it means that prices are rising faster than they were before March, while 13% told us they didn’t know in the first place.

Of those who told us they understand what inflation was “very well” or “fairly well”, fully 40% either got the answer wrong or said they didn’t know.

Voters who backed Labour in 2019 are more likely to give the correct definition of inflation (62%) than their Conservative-voting counterparts (50%). Those in middle class households are also more likely to give the right answer (58%, compared to 44% in working class households), as are men when compared to women (59% vs 46%).

Perhaps unsurprisingly, younger Britons are less likely to correctly define inflation than their elders; 44% of 18-24 year olds compared to 52-54% in older age groups.

While negativity towards the government’s handling of inflation if receding, it lags behind the speed at which inflation is dropping

Our website tracker data shows that 63% of Britons think that the government is handling inflation badly, compared to 28% who think it is handling it well.

If we compare attitudes towards the government’s handling of inflation with the rate of CPI over the same period, we can clearly see that public opinion closely mirrored the rate of inflation as prices rose. However, while negative perceptions of the government’s performance are falling, they are not falling as quickly as the rate of inflation.

An obvious point here is that falling inflation is not the same as falling prices – while inflation may be falling, prices remain high, which means a lag in attitudes is to be expected as Britons continue to struggle with their household budgets. (Other factors will also be playing a role, not least the significant unpopularity of the government more broadly.)

What this is means is that government success in tackling inflation probably won’t pay immediate electoral dividends – and with a general election required in coming months, the government does not have the luxury of being able to wait to take credit.

(YouGov UK)

24 April 2024

Source: https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49229-how-well-do-britons-understand-inflation

 

839-844-43-10/Polls

Dissatisfaction With Government On Immigration At Highest Level Since 2015

Public dissatisfaction with the way the current government is dealing with  immigration is at its highest level since before the EU referendum, according to the latest findings of an authoritative survey that has tracked public attitudes to immigration since 2015. 

Some 69% of the public say they are dissatisfied and just 9% satisfied, according to the Immigration Attitudes Tracker from Ipsos and British Future – the highest level of unhappiness in the tracker’s history. The survey was conducted online with 3,000 adults across Britain between 17 – 28 February 2024.

Dissatisfaction with the way the current government is dealing with immigration has increased steadily since 2020 to its highest level in the series - 69% are dissatisfied and 9% are satisfied - Immigration Tracker Survey 2024
Only 16% of current Conservative supporters – and just 8% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 – are satisfied with the government’s handling of immigration. 55% of current Conservative supporters and 71% of 2019 Conservative voters are dissatisfied. Some 10% of Labour supporters say they are satisfied, while 72% are not.

The number one reason for dissatisfaction is ‘not doing enough to stop channel crossings’, chosen by 54% of those who are dissatisfied. Half of those who are dissatisfied (51%) say it is because ‘immigration numbers are too high’. However 28% of those dissatisfied say it’s because of ‘creating a negative or fearful environment for migrants who live in Britain’ and for 25% the reason is ‘not treating asylum seekers well’. 

For current Labour supporters who are dissatisfied with the government on immigration, ‘Creating a negative or fearful environment for migrants’ (42%) is as important as ‘Not doing enough to stop channel crossings’ (41%).

There is a significant difference, too, in how important immigration is to different voters. Some 53% of current Conservative supporters say it is important in deciding how they will vote in the coming election, their number three issue after the NHS (57%) and cost of living (55%). For Labour voters it ranks 12th, with half as many saying it is important in deciding their vote (27%).

In a period of high net migration, the new tracker survey finds that 52% of the public now supports reducing immigration (up from 48% in 2023). Four in ten people do not want reductions: 23% would prefer numbers to stay the same and 17% would like them to increase.  Support for reducing immigration is still significantly lower than in 2015, the first year of the tracker, when 67% of the public backed reductions.

Attitudes differ significantly by politics. Seven in ten current Conservative supporters (72%) want immigration numbers reduced (17% want it to stay the same and 9% want it to increase). But most Labour supporters don’t, preferring immigration numbers to either remain the same (32%) or increase (20%), although 40% do want reductions.

However, the public finds it difficult to identify what migration they would cut. Almost half of the 337,240 work visas granted in 2023 were ‘Skilled Worker – Health and Care’ visas (1). The tracker finds that 51% of the public would like the number of doctors coming to the UK from overseas to increase (24% remain the same, 15% decrease); 52% would like the number of migrant nurses to increase (23% remain the same, 15% decrease) and 42% would like more people coming to the UK from overseas to work in care homes (27% remain the same, 18% decrease).

For a range of other working roles, support for not reducing immigration numbers is higher than that for reducing them. Less than 3 in 10 people support reducing numbers of seasonal fruit and vegetable pickers, construction labourers, restaurant & catering staff, teachers, academics, computer experts and lorry drivers coming to the UK. When allocating work visas for immigration, the public would prefer the government to prioritise migration to address shortages at all skill levels (52%) than attracting people for highly skilled roles (26%).

Support for reducing the number of international students coming to the UK has increased by 4 points, with around a third of people (35%) preferring numbers to be reduced. But most of the public (53%) does not want to reduce student numbers. A third would prefer numbers to remain the same (34%) and a further fifth (19%) would like to see them increase.

Sunder Katwala, Director of British Future, said:

There is widespread public dissatisfaction with the government’s handling of immigration, but for different reasons. Many Conservatives want tougher action to match tough words, while Labour supporters want more compassion alongside control. 
There’s a gulf in how much immigration matters to how people will vote in the coming election.  For Conservatives it’s the number three issue after the NHS and cost of living; for Labour supporters it doesn’t make the Top Ten. That makes for very different pressures on the two party leaders in the coming campaign.
With migration figures high, there is more support for reducing immigration. Yet while seven in ten Conservatives want reductions, most Labour supporters don’t. And across political divides people struggle to identify what immigration they would cut – with less than three in ten supporting cuts to many flows and a majority still wanting more health and care workers coming to the UK.

Gideon Skinner, head of political research at Ipsos, said:

There has been a change in overall public attitudes towards immigration over the last two years, as Britons have become more negative – though still more positive than in 2015.  However many of the underlying dilemmas remain the same, with overall people preferring more control, more accountability to Parliament, and being open to migration for work in a range of specific sectors such as health and social care – and views varying according to the exact policy in question.
In an election year, it is also clear that there is a difference in attitudes across the political spectrum.  Conservative supporters are most negative towards immigration, but are also critical of the government, despite their support for policies such as Rwanda.  Labour is more trusted on immigration than the Conservatives, especially among its own supporters, but there are hardly high levels of faith in Keir Starmer’s party.  Immigration is not looking like the most important issue to voters at the ballot box but it could still have a role to play – and whichever party wins will still face a challenge to regain public confidence once the election is over.

As the UK heads towards a general election, the tracker finds that the Labour Party is more trusted than the Conservatives to have ‘the right immigration policies overall’. Reform UK is slightly more trusted than the Conservatives but less trusted than Labour. Some 22% of the public says they trust the Conservative Party to have ‘the right immigration policies overall’, while 68% say they don’t trust the party. For Labour, 33% trust the party while 51% say they don’t. And 26% of the public says they trust the Reform UK Party on immigration, while 47% say they don’t – a similar score to the Lib Dems (trust 23%, distrust 50%).

Among leading politicians tested, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak had the highest ‘distrust’ score, with 70% of the public saying they do not trust the PM on immigration and 21% saying they do. Some 57% say they distrust Labour leader Keir Starmer on immigration, with 31% saying they trust him.  Nigel Farage is distrusted by 59% of the public on immigration and trusted by 29% – making him slightly more trusted than former Home Secretary Suella Braverman, who is distrusted by 63% and trusted by 22% of the public.

On asylum, the tracker finds that 47% of the public supports the Rwanda scheme and 29% are opposed to it. Opinion is divided by politics, with 75% support among current Conservative supporters (and 10% opposition) compared to 31% support among Labour supporters and 47% opposition. Only 32% of the public thinks the Rwanda scheme is likely to reduce the number of people trying to enter the UK without permission to seek asylum, while 56% think it is unlikely to do so.

Because the Rwanda scheme has often been mis-described, for instance as an offshoring scheme, the tracker tested which version of the Rwanda policy people prefer. Given three options, 32% chose the description of the government’s actual Rwanda scheme: “Remove asylum seekers to Rwanda to claim asylum there, without first assessing the claim.” A quarter of people (25%) preferred a different version of the Rwanda scheme to the one that the government is pursuing: “Assess these asylum claims in the UK first, to only consider removals to Rwanda for those whose asylum claims fail”. A further quarter (26%) chose “Do not send anyone to Rwanda, regardless of how they arrived.” (5% chose ‘none of these’, 12% don’t know).

(Ipsos MORI)

25 March 2024

Source: https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/immigration-tracker-march-2024

 

839-844-43-11/Polls

Half Of Brits Say They Will Listen To Their Friends And Family When Deciding Who To Vote For At The Next General Election

  • Social media is the most popular news source among 18-34-year-olds for following politics and current affairs.
  • Watching news programmes on major broadcaster on TV is the main way that the public as a whole follow politics and current affairs.

New polling from Ipsos explores how the public follow stories about politics and current affairs, and who they will listen to most when it comes to deciding how to vote at the next General Election. 

Almost two thirds (65%) said that they have been following news stories about politics and current affairs closely, compared to a third (34%) who said that they have not been following them closely. Those aged 55=75 are a little more likely to be paying attention (72%) than those aged under 55 (62%).  

Ipsos chart: Among those who follow politics and current affairs, news programmes on TV are the most common source of information


Those who said they followed politics and current affairs to some extent, were then asked about what sources they use to follow politics and current affairs. 

  • The most common source of information for news on politics and current affairs is watching news programmes or stories on major broadcasters on TV (57%), followed by news programmes or stories on the websites of major broadcasters (43%). 
  • A third said they would use newspapers (35%) or social media platforms (34%), with slightly fewer (29%) saying they would have discussions with friends and family. 
  • Less than one in ten said that they have used political party broadcasts (8%) or contact from a political party, including leaflets, emails, and canvassing (7%) to follow politics and current affairs.

However there are differences in terms of what sources different age groups said they are most likely to use to follow politics and current affairs. For example, more than half of 18-34s said they followed politics and current affairs through social media (51%).  

Ipsos chart: Social media is the main way that over half of 18-34s follow politics and current affairs
The public were also asked how much they would listen to the views of certain groups and individuals across society, when it comes to deciding who to vote for at the next General Election. Half said that they would listen to the views of their friends and family when deciding who to vote for at the next General Election (51%). This is the only group that the public said they were more likely to listen to, than not listen to, when it comes to deciding how to vote at the next General Election (40% not very much/ not at all). 

Ipsos chart: Half of Brits say they will listen to friends and family when deciding who to vote for at the next General Election. Q: How much, if at all, will you listen to the views of each of the following when deciding who to vote for at the next General Election? (% A great deal / fair amount) Reality TV stars 13% Sportsmen / Sportswomen 15% Musicians / pop stars 15% Movie / TV stars 17% Podcast hosts 20% People you follow on social media 22% People you work with 29% Opinion polls 30% People who work in public services 33% Journalists 38% Political commentators (economists, academics, think tanks etc.) 44% Politicians 45% Your friends and family 51%


The next groups that the public said they are most likely to listen to when it comes to deciding how to vote at the next General Election are politicians themselves (45%), political commentators (44%), and journalists (38%). A third said they would listen to the views of people who work in public services (33%), whilst three in ten said they would listen to opinion polls (30%) or people they work with (29%). Only a minority said that they would listen to movie/ TV stars (17%), Musicians (15%), Sportsmen/ Sportswomen (15%), and reality TV stars (13%) when it comes to deciding who to vote for at the next General Election.

Ipsos Director of Politics Keiran Pedley said of the findings:

As we approach a General Election, political parties will be carefully considering how best to reach their target voters. These findings make clear that whilst more traditional broadcast channels remain the most used sources of information for news about politics and current affairs overall, social media is the most important for those under the age of 35. Reflecting that social media will be an important channel for parties looking to reach younger voters and for the campaign more generally.

(Ipsos MORI)

11 April 2024

Source: https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/half-of-brits-say-they-will-listen-to-friends-and-family-when-deciding-who-to-vote-for-next-election

 

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Vaccination: An Information Gap Among Parents Of Children And Seniors

Key figures:

This survey demonstrates a lack of information on the world of vaccination among parents of children and seniors: 

  • More than 6 out of 10 parents do not know that meningococcal meningitis is an infection that particularly affects children and adolescents;
  • Still 8 out of 10 people aged 60 and over are unaware of the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV);
  • 93% of people aged 65 and over do not, wrongly, believe they are at greater risk of contracting shingles than the rest of the population.

This persistent lack of knowledge implies the major role of health professionals in the prevention of these diseases or other levers such as prevention campaigns in schools favored by parents or the use of digital health devices to allow better followed by the French.


A notorious lack of knowledge about pathologies that can cause serious complications

The results of the barometer are clear: the French, all age groups combined, always underestimate the risk of infection and report an alarming lack of knowledge or even confusion about different infections such as shingles, meningitis or RSV, among others.
Among seniors in particular, even more than a third of those over 65 feel poorly informed about the different vaccinations recommended for them and 40% of parents about the vaccinations recommended for their adolescents aged 11 to 14.

Focus on parents of children

In France, the number of cases of invasive meningococcal infections (IIM), responsible for meningitis or meningococcal septicemia, jumped by 72% in 2023 compared to 2022, with 560 cases declared in 2023, an unprecedented level for 5 years [1]. 
However, more than 6 out of 10 parents do not know that meningococcal meningitis is an infection that particularly affects children and adolescents . 67% of them are unaware that one in five people surviving an invasive meningococcal infection can have serious after-effects.
These various findings highlight the awareness-raising work necessary to be carried out by health professionals to stem this lack of knowledge. Note that health authorities have an important role to play since nearly 8 out of 10 parents would vaccinate their child against meningococcal meningitis if they recommended it. As a reminder, the HAS recently updated its vaccination strategies and wishes to make vaccination against invasive meningococcal infections A, C, W, Y and B compulsory in infants [2]. It also recommends tetravalent vaccination in adolescents between 11 and 14 years old and recommends reimbursement for vaccination against serogroup B in adolescents and young adults aged 15-24 years wishing to be vaccinated.
Prevention in schools can be a lever for additional information, especially since more than 8 out of 10 parents are in favor of it. Furthermore, more than 7 out of 10 parents are in favor of setting up vaccination campaigns in schools .

Focus on seniors

The barometer reveals that shingles is poorly understood by seniors even though it is estimated that 1 in 3 people who have had chickenpox will develop this disease during their lifetime and that reactivation of the virus responsible for shingles is observed most often after 50 years or when the immune system is weakened [3]. Among those aged 65 and over, for whom vaccination against shingles is recommended by the HAS, only 7% consider themselves to be more at risk than the others. Finally, more than three quarters of seniors still do not know their vaccination status regarding shingles.
RSV (respiratory syncytial virus), highly contagious and responsible for infections of the respiratory system which can lead to serious complications or even death [4], also appears to be a little-known disease among seniors. 8 out of 10 people aged 60 and over are unaware of this pathology and, more alarmingly, more than 90% of them do not feel, wrongly, more concerned about contracting RSV than the rest of the population.

The leading role of doctors in supporting the French towards vaccination

Faced with this lack of knowledge and preconceived ideas, general practitioners remain more than ever a key player due to their legitimacy. Indeed, they remain the primary source of information for nearly 6 in 10 French people .
The results of the barometer reveal that the French are very receptive to vaccination recommendations issued by health professionals: 84% would vaccinate their children against meningococcal meningitis if the doctor recommended it; 74% would be vaccinated against RSV on their recommendations.

A membership for new vaccinators

Vaccination in pharmacies also proves to be an important lever for action. Nearly 9 out of 10 French people perceive vaccination in pharmacies, by the pharmacist, very positively.
Moreover, almost 1 in 2 French people have already had the experience of being vaccinated in a pharmacy , and an equivalent proportion would be ready to do so.
The French are also sensitive to the recommendations made by their pharmacist: 67% of French people would have their child vaccinated against meningococcal meningitis if the pharmacist recommended it and 58% would be vaccinated against RSV on their recommendation

Digital tools and health examinations, two systems to promote

To improve the vaccination journey for the French, digital health tools were put in place two years ago, such as the “My health space” digital health record and the “MesVaccins.net” digital vaccination record. However, the results of the barometer reveal that they are still little known and little used by the French. Only 36% used the digital health record from “My health space” over the last year and 15% used the digital vaccination record from “MesVaccins.net”. 
In both cases, the generational divide is very marked and being young or a parent favors the use of these digital media. 34% of 18-24 year olds and 25% of parents have used the digital vaccination card in the last year versus 6% of 55-64 year olds.

As for medical follow-up and prevention examinations dedicated to adolescents:

  • Only approximately 1 in 4 parents are aware of the existence of medical follow-up examinations for young adolescents aged 11 and 13 and 15 and 16;
  • Even fewer (1 in 5 parents) are aware of the existence of the personalized prevention examination open to adolescents aged 16 and over.

(Ipsos France)

25 April 2024

Source: https://www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/vaccination-un-deficit-dinformation-chez-les-parents-denfants-et-les-seniors

 

NORTH AMERICA

839-844-43-13/Polls

Americans’ Use Of Chatgpt Is Ticking Up, But Few Trust Its Election Information

It’s been more than a year since ChatGPT’s public debut set the tech world abuzz. And Americans’ use of the chatbot is ticking up: 23% of U.S. adults say they have ever used it, according to a Pew Research Center survey conducted in February, up from 18% in July 2023.

The February survey also asked Americans about several ways they might use ChatGPT, including for workplace tasks, for learning and for fun. While growing shares of Americans are using the chatbot for these purposes, the public is more wary than not of what the chatbot might tell them about the 2024 U.S. presidential election. About four-in-ten adults have not too much or no trust in the election information that comes from ChatGPT. By comparison, just 2% have a great deal or quite a bit of trust.

Who has used ChatGPT?

A line chart showing that chatGPT use has ticked up since July, particularly among younger adults.

Most Americans still haven’t used the chatbot, despite the uptick since our July 2023 survey on this topic. But some groups remain far more likely to have used it than others.

Differences by age

Adults under 30 stand out: 43% of these young adults have used ChatGPT, up 10 percentage points since last summer. Use of the chatbot is also up slightly among those ages 30 to 49 and 50 to 64. Still, these groups remain less likely than their younger peers to have used the technology. Just 6% of Americans 65 and up have used ChatGPT.

Differences by education

Highly educated adults are most likely to have used ChatGPT: 37% of those with a postgraduate or other advanced degree have done so, up 8 points since July 2023. This group is more likely to have used ChatGPT than those with a bachelor’s degree only (29%), some college experience (23%) or a high school diploma or less (12%).

How have Americans used ChatGPT?

Since March 2023, we’ve also tracked three potential reasons Americans might use ChatGPT: for work, to learn something new or for entertainment.

Line charts showing that the share of employed Americans who have used ChatGPT for work has risen by double digits in the past year.

The share of employed Americans who have used ChatGPT on the job increased from 8% in March 2023 to 20% in February 2024, including an 8-point increase since July.

Turning to U.S. adults overall, about one-in-five have used ChatGPT to learn something new (17%) or for entertainment (17%). These shares have increased from about one-in-ten in March 2023.

Differences by age

Line charts showing that about a third of employed Americans under 30 have now used ChatGPT for work.

Use of ChatGPT for work, learning or entertainment has largely risen across age groups over the past year. Still, there are striking differences between these groups (those 18 to 29, 30 to 49, and 50 and older).

For example, about three-in-ten employed adults under 30 (31%) say they have used it for tasks at work – up 19 points from a year ago, with much of that increase happening since July. These younger workers are more likely than their older peers to have used ChatGPT in this way.

Adults under 30 also stand out in using the chatbot for learning. And when it comes to entertainment, those under 50 are more likely than older adults to use ChatGPT for this purpose.

Differences by education

A third of employed Americans with a postgraduate degree have used ChatGPT for work, compared with smaller shares of workers who have a bachelor’s degree only (25%), some college (19%) or a high school diploma or less (8%).

Those shares have each roughly tripled since March 2023 for workers with a postgraduate degree, bachelor’s degree or some college. Among workers with a high school diploma or less, use is statistically unchanged from a year ago.

Using ChatGPT for other purposes also varies by education level, though the patterns are slightly different. For example, a quarter each of postgraduate and bachelor’s degree-holders have used ChatGPT for learning, compared with 16% of those with some college experience and 11% of those with a high school diploma or less education. Each of these shares is up from a year ago.

ChatGPT and the 2024 presidential election

With more people using ChatGPT, we also wanted to understand whether Americans trust the information they get from it, particularly in the context of U.S. politics.

A horizontal stacked bar chart showing that about 4 in 10 Americans don’t trust information about the election that comes from ChatGPT.

About four-in-ten Americans (38%) don’t trust the information that comes from ChatGPT about the 2024 U.S. presidential election – that is, they say they have not too much trust (18%) or no trust at all (20%).

A mere 2% have a great deal or quite a bit of trust, while 10% have some trust.

Another 15% aren’t sure, while 34% have not heard of ChatGPT.

Distrust far outweighs trust regardless of political party. About four-in-ten Republicans and Democrats alike (including those who lean toward each party) have not too much or no trust at all in ChatGPT’s election information.

Notably, however, very few Americans have actually used the chatbot to find information about the presidential election: Just 2% of adults say they have done so, including 2% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents and 1% of Republicans and GOP leaners.

These survey findings come amid growing national attention on chatbots and misinformation. Several tech companies have recently pledged to prevent the misuse of artificial intelligence – including chatbots – in this year’s election. But recent reports suggest chatbots themselves may provide misleading answers to election-related questions.

(PEW)

26 March 2024

Source: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/03/26/americans-use-of-chatgpt-is-ticking-up-but-few-trust-its-election-information/?utm_source=Pew+Research+Center&utm_campaign=7711f6c211-Weekly_3-30-24&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_-7711f6c211-%5BLIST_EMAIL_ID%5D#how-have-americans-used-chatgpt

 

839-844-43-14/Polls

How U.S. Muslims Are Experiencing The Israel-Hamas War

U.S. Muslims are more sympathetic to the Palestinian people than many other Americans are, despite the fact that relatively few Muslims in the United States are Palestinian themselves, according to a Pew Research Center survey conducted in February. And only about a quarter of Muslims in the survey identify as Arab or of Arab ancestry.

Muslim Americans are also highly critical of President Joe Biden’s handling of the war between Israel and Hamas.

Meanwhile, a majority of Muslim Americans (70%) say discrimination against Muslims in our society has increased since the start of the war, and about half (53%) say news about the war makes them feel afraid.

Here’s a closer look at these and other findings from our new survey.

How U.S. Muslims view America’s role in the war 

A bar chart showing that most U.S. Muslims say Biden is favoring the Israelis too much.

Only 6% of Muslim adults believe that the U.S. is striking the right balance between the Israelis and Palestinians, according to the February survey.

Most Muslims (60%) instead say Biden is favoring the Israelis too much, while just 3% say he is favoring the Palestinians too much. Another 30% are not sure.

A bar chart showing that Muslims in the U.S. have equally unfavorable views of Biden and Trump.

Muslim Americans have been strongly Democratic in the past and remain so – 66% of Muslim registered voters in the survey identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party. (The survey includes 298 Muslim registered voters for an effective sample size of 94 and a margin of error of plus or minus 10.1 points.) But Biden’s handling of the war has led some U.S. Muslims to cast protest votes against him in Democratic primaries this year.

A bar chart showing that most U.S. Muslims strongly favor U.S. humanitarian aid to Palestinians.

Muslims’ views of Biden are broadly negative, according to our survey: Only 36% view him positively. In fact, Muslims’ views of Biden are broadly similar to their views of former President Donald Trump (35% favorable), despite the fact that most Muslims felt Trump was unfriendly toward Muslims when he was president.

In the current war between Israel and Hamas, 69% of Muslim Americans favor the U.S. providing humanitarian aid to help Palestinian civilians. In contrast, most Muslims (65%) oppose America providing military aid to Israel to help in its war against Hamas.

How U.S. Muslims see the Palestinian, Israeli people and their leaders

A bar chart showing that most U.S. Muslims say their sympathies lie entirely or mostly with Palestinians.

While around a third of Muslim Americans (32%) have some sympathy for both the Israeli people and the Palestinian people, nearly two-thirds (64%) say their sympathies lie either entirely or mostly with the Palestinian people. Among the larger American public, by comparison, relatively few adults (16%) are entirely or mostly sympathetic toward the Palestinian people.

When it comes to the Israeli government, only 10% of U.S. Muslims have a favorable view. In fact, Muslims are more likely to have a favorable view of Hamas (37%), which has controlled Gaza, than of the Israeli government. Still, 58% of Muslims have an unfavorable view of Hamas.

A slight majority of Muslims (59%) have a favorable opinion of the Palestinian Authority, which some experts have suggested may take control of the Gaza Strip if Hamas is removed from power. The Palestinian Authority governs the West Bank and has not had control over the Gaza Strip since Hamas won elections in 2006.

A dot plot showing that most U.S. Muslims see Hamas negatively – but still more positively than they see the Israeli government.

How U.S. Muslims perceive discrimination in the U.S. since the start of the war

Most Muslim Americans (70%) believe discrimination against Muslims in our society has increased since the start of the Israel-Hamas war. A much smaller share of the U.S. public overall (38%) says the same.

A bar chart showing that 70% of U.S. Muslims say discrimination against them has risen since the Israel-Hamas war began.

How U.S. Muslims are engaging with and following the war

A dot plot showing that about half of U.S. Muslims say news about the Israel-Hamas war makes them feel afraid.

Muslim Americans are more likely than Americans overall to feel afraid when hearing or reading news about the war. Around half of Muslims (53%) say this, compared with 37% of all U.S. adults. Muslim Americans are also more likely than U.S. adults overall to feel exhausted when consuming news about the war.

Around four-in-ten Muslim Americans say they are following the war extremely or very closely, while another 27% are somewhat following it. Still, roughly a third of U.S. Muslims (32%) are not following the war too closely or at all. Jewish Americans, by comparison, are following the war much more closely, according to our survey: 61% say they are following it extremely or very closely and 11% say they are following it not too or not at all closely.

About a third of U.S. Muslims could not correctly identify Benjamin Netanyahu as the current prime minister of Israel. And about three-in-ten Muslims could not correctly identify Hamas as the group behind the Oct. 7 attack against Israel or knew that most of the deaths in the Israel-Hamas war have been among Palestinians and not Israelis. Even so, roughly seven-in-ten correctly answered each question.

(PEW)

02 April 2024

Source: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/04/02/how-us-muslims-are-experiencing-the-israel-hamas-war/

 

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Rising Numbers Of Americans Say Jews And Muslims Face A Lot Of Discrimination

Chart shows the share of Americans who say Jews face a lot of discrimination has doubled since 2021

The share of U.S. adults who say there is a lot of discrimination against Jews in our society has doubled in the last three years, according to a new Pew Research Center survey, jumping from 20% in 2021 to 40% today. A somewhat larger share – 44% – say Muslims face a lot of discrimination, up 5 percentage points since 2021.

Many Americans particularly sense that discrimination against Muslims and Jews has risen since the start of the Israel-Hamas war. The vast majority of U.S. Muslims and Jews themselves agree: Seven-in-ten Muslims and nine-in-ten Jews surveyed say they have felt an increase in discrimination against their respective groups since the war began in October.

The survey, conducted Feb. 13-25 among a nationally representative sample of 12,693 U.S. adults that includes an oversample of American Jews and Muslims, also probed the public’s views on the limits of free speech related to the war.

It finds that Americans are broadly comfortable with speech both for and against Israeli and Palestinian statehood. But most U.S. adults are not OK with calls for violence against Jews or Muslims.

Jewish and Muslim respondents in this survey

Chart shows most Americans say speech supporting or opposing Israeli and Palestinian statehood should be allowed, but calls for violence should not

  • 70% say expressing support for “Israel’s right to exist as a Jewish state” should be allowed.
  • 58% say expressing opposition to Israel’s right to exist should be allowed.
  • 66% say speech supporting “Palestinians having their own state” should be allowed.
  • 61% say speech opposing a Palestinian state should be allowed.
  • One-in-ten say calls for violence against either Jews or Muslims should be allowed.

On the questions about speech related to statehood, substantial shares of respondents are not sure. For example, 23% say they aren’t sure whether speech opposing Israel’s right to exist as a Jewish state should be allowed. And 25% say they aren’t sure whether speech opposing Palestinian statehood should be allowed.

When it comes to speech advocating violence, however, there is less uncertainty. Roughly three-quarters of Americans say that calls for violence against either Muslims or Jews should not be allowed.

The survey comes amid a flurry of news reports about antisemitic and anti-Muslim incidents in the United States, especially on college campuses, where fierce debates have erupted over the limits of free speech. For many Jewish and Muslim Americans, these debates are not just ideological, but personal:

  • 74% of U.S. Jews and 60% of U.S. Muslims surveyed say they have felt offended by something they saw on the news or social media about the Israel-Hamas war.
  • 27% of Muslims and 26% of Jews in the survey say they have stopped talking to someone in person – or unfollowed or blocked someone online – because of something that person said about the war.

A previous Pew Research Center report, based on the same survey, examined the U.S. public’s views on the war, including questions about:

In this report, we focus on perceived levels of discrimination against Jews, Muslims and Arab people in the U.S. For context, we analyze perceptions of discrimination against other religious, racial and ethnic groups, including evangelical Christians and Asian, Black, Hispanic and White Americans (Chapter 1).

We also delve into public attitudes toward speech related to the war, including how these views vary by age, education, political partisanship and other demographic factors (Chapter 2).

How much discrimination do U.S. Jews and Muslims see against their own group?

The vast majority of U.S. Muslims surveyed (85%) say there is at least some discrimination against Muslims in our society today, including 67% who say there is a lot. Overall, Muslim respondents are more likely to feel there is at least some discrimination against their own religious group than to say the same about Jews (50%).

Chart shows Most Jews, Muslims perceive a lot of discrimination against their own group

An overwhelming majority of U.S. Jews (94%) say there is at least some discrimination against Jews in our society, including 72% who say there is a lot. And more say there is a lot of discrimination against Jews than say the same about Muslims (57%).

For Jews, this represents a shift: In our 2020 and 2013 surveys of American Jews, they were more likely to say that Muslims (as well as Black people) face a lot of discrimination than to say this about themselves.1

Chart shows Most Jews, Muslims say discrimination against them has increased since the start of the Israel-Hamas war

The change in Jewish Americans’ perceptions appears to be tied, at least in part, to the conflict in the Middle East: 89% of Jewish respondents say they have perceived a rise in discrimination against Jews since the start of the Israel-Hamas war.

They are not alone in feeling the effects of the conflict. Seven-in-ten Muslim respondents say discrimination against Muslims has risen since the start of the war. (Jewish and Muslim Americans are also paying greater attention to news about the Israel-Hamas war than most other Americans.)

In addition, most Muslims and nearly half of Jews say discrimination has increased against Arabs since the war began.

Unlike most U.S. polls, this survey has enough Jewish and Muslim respondents to allow their opinions to be broken out separately. Although Arab Americans also are included in the survey, there are not enough of them to reliably represent the views of Arab Americans as a whole. All three groups are very small in proportion to the overall U.S. population, which makes it hard to get a representative estimate through random sampling alone.

Free speech and the Israel-Hamas war

The survey included several questions to gauge tolerance for public speech about Israeli and Palestinian statehood, asking whether people in the U.S. should be able to express these sentiments – even if they might offend some people. Outright opposition to these expressions of opinion are relatively rare; instead, sizable shares say they are unsure. In contrast, most Americans say public speech calling for violence against Jews or Muslims should not be allowed.

Like the public overall, a large majority of U.S. Jews are in favor of allowing people to express support for Israel’s right to exist as a Jewish state (92%). Majorities of Jews also say speech either supporting (77%) or opposing (74%) Palestinians having their own state should be allowed. But Jews are less likely to say this about speech opposing Israel’s right to exist as a Jewish state: 55% say this kind of speech should be allowed, while 34% say it should not be allowed.

Similarly, a solid majority of U.S. Muslims say that speech supporting a Palestinian state should be allowed (70%). About half of Muslims say people should be allowed to express support for (47%) or opposition to (50%) Israel’s existence as a Jewish state. And 43% of Muslims say that speech opposing a Palestinian state should be allowed; 27% say this kind of speech should not be allowed, and 28% are unsure.

Chart shows Few Americans say calling for violence against Jews or Muslims should be allowed

Like many public attitudes toward the Israel-Hamas war, opinions on these issues vary depending on people’s age, political party and education:

Age

  • Compared with other age groups, Americans 65 and older are more likely to say there is a lot of discrimination against Jews in our society today. Older Americans are far more likely to report an increase in discrimination against Jews than against Muslims or Arabs.
  • By contrast, Americans ages 18 to 29 are more likely to say that Black, Muslim, Arab and Hispanic people experience a lot of discrimination than to say the same about Jews. Adults under 30 are equally likely to perceive an increase in discrimination against Muslims, Arabs and Jews since the start of the Israel-Hamas war (47% each).
  • People ages 65 and older are the most likely to say they have felt personally offended by something they saw on the news or social media about the war (41%).
  • Adults under 30 are the most likely to say they stopped talking to someone, or unfollowed or blocked someone online, because of something that person said about the Israel-Hamas war (16%).

Partisanship

  • Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents are generally more likely than Republicans and Republican leaners to say there is a lot of discrimination against the groups asked about in the survey; Democrats are most likely to say there is a lot of discrimination against Black people (62%), Muslims (61%), Arab people (55%) and Jews (41%).
  • Republicans are most likely to say there is a lot of discrimination against Jews (40%), followed by Muslims (27%), evangelical Christians (24%) and White people (24%).
  • Democrats are about twice as likely as Republicans to say that, since the start of the Israel-Hamas war, discrimination has increased against Muslims (52% vs. 26%) and Arabs (49% vs. 23%).
  • Republicans (61%) and Democrats (57%) largely agree that discrimination against Jews has increased since the outbreak of the war.
  • Republicans and Democrats are also broadly in sync on the survey’s questions about speech. They largely are in favor of allowing expressions for or against statehood, but do not think calls for violence should be allowed.

Education

  • Americans with at least a college degree are more likely than those with less education to say discrimination against Jews, Muslims and Arabs has increased since the start of the Israel-Hamas war.
  • People with at least a college degree are far more likely than those with less education to say that speech supporting and opposing Israeli or Palestinian statehood should be allowed. Those with lower levels of education are much more likely to say they are unsure.

(PEW)

02 April 2024

Source: https://www.pewresearch.org/2024/04/02/rising-numbers-of-americans-say-jews-and-muslims-face-a-lot-of-discrimination/

 

839-844-43-16/Polls

About 1 In 4 U.S. Teachers Say Their School Went Into A Gun-Related Lockdown In The Last School Year

Twenty-five years after the mass shooting at Columbine High School in Colorado, a majority of public K-12 teachers (59%) say they are at least somewhat worried about the possibility of a shooting ever happening at their school. This includes 18% who say they’re extremely or very worried, according to a new Pew Research Center survey.

Another 31% of teachers say they are not too worried about a shooting occurring at their school. Only 7% of teachers say they are not at all worried.

This survey comes at a time when school shootings are at a record high (82 in 2023) and gun safety continues to be a topic in 2024 election campaigns.

A pie chart showing that a majority of teachers are at least somewhat worried about a shooting occurring at their school.

Teachers’ experiences with lockdowns

A horizontal stacked bar chart showing that about 1 in 4 teachers say their school had a gun-related lockdown last year.

About a quarter of teachers (23%) say they experienced a lockdown in the 2022-23 school year because of a gun or suspicion of a gun at their school. Some 15% say this happened once during the year, and 8% say this happened more than once.

High school teachers are most likely to report experiencing these lockdowns: 34% say their school went on at least one gun-related lockdown in the last school year. This compares with 22% of middle school teachers and 16% of elementary school teachers.

Teachers in urban schools are also more likely to say that their school had a gun-related lockdown. About a third of these teachers (31%) say this, compared with 19% of teachers in suburban schools and 20% in rural schools.

Do teachers feel their school has prepared them for an active shooter?

About four-in-ten teachers (39%) say their school has done a fair or poor job providing them with the training and resources they need to deal with a potential active shooter.

A bar chart showing that 3 in 10 teachers say their school has done an excellent or very good job preparing them for an active shooter.

A smaller share (30%) give their school an excellent or very good rating, and another 30% say their school has done a good job preparing them.

Teachers in urban schools are the least likely to say their school has done an excellent or very good job preparing them for a potential active shooter. About one-in-five (21%) say this, compared with 32% of teachers in suburban schools and 35% in rural schools.

Teachers who have police officers or armed security stationed in their school are more likely than those who don’t to say their school has done an excellent or very good job preparing them for a potential active shooter (36% vs. 22%).

Overall, 56% of teachers say they have police officers or armed security stationed at their school. Majorities in rural schools (64%) and suburban schools (56%) say this, compared with 48% in urban schools.

Only 3% of teachers say teachers and administrators at their school are allowed to carry guns in school. This is slightly more common in school districts where a majority of voters cast ballots for Donald Trump in 2020 than in school districts where a majority of voters cast ballots for Joe Biden (5% vs. 1%).

What strategies do teachers think could help prevent school shootings?

A bar chart showing that 69% of teachers say better mental health treatment would be highly effective in preventing school shootings.

The survey also asked teachers how effective some measures would be at preventing school shootings.

Most teachers (69%) say improving mental health screening and treatment for children and adults would be extremely or very effective.

About half (49%) say having police officers or armed security in schools would be highly effective, while 33% say the same about metal detectors in schools.

Just 13% say allowing teachers and school administrators to carry guns in schools would be extremely or very effective at preventing school shootings. Seven-in-ten teachers say this would be not too or not at all effective.

How teachers’ views differ by party

A dot plot showing that teachers’ views of strategies to prevent school shootings differ by political party.

Republican and Republican-leaning teachers are more likely than Democratic and Democratic-leaning teachers to say each of the following would be highly effective:

  • Having police officers or armed security in schools (69% vs. 37%)
  • Having metal detectors in schools (43% vs. 27%)
  • Allowing teachers and school administrators to carry guns in schools (28% vs. 3%)

And while majorities in both parties say improving mental health screening and treatment would be highly effective at preventing school shootings, Democratic teachers are more likely than Republican teachers to say this (73% vs. 66%).

Parents’ views on school shootings and prevention strategies

In fall 2022, we asked parents a similar set of questions about school shootings.

Roughly a third of parents with K-12 students (32%) said they were extremely or very worried about a shooting ever happening at their child’s school. An additional 37% said they were somewhat worried.

As is the case among teachers, improving mental health screening and treatment was the only strategy most parents (63%) said would be extremely or very effective at preventing school shootings. And allowing teachers and school administrators to carry guns in schools was seen as the least effective – in fact, half of parents said this would be not too or not at all effective. This question was asked of all parents with a child younger than 18, regardless of whether they have a child in K-12 schools.

Like teachers, parents’ views on strategies for preventing school shootings differed by party. 

(PEW)

11 April 2024

Source: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/04/11/about-1-in-4-us-teachers-say-their-school-went-into-a-gun-related-lockdown-in-the-last-school-year/

 

839-844-43-17/Polls

Majority Of U.S. Catholics Express Favorable View Of Pope Francis

A new Pew Research Center survey finds that 75% of U.S. Catholics view Pope Francis favorably, down 8 percentage points since we last asked this question in 2021 and 15 points below his peak favorability rating, which was 90% in early 2015.

Since becoming pope in 2013, Francis often has received favorable ratings from 80% or more of U.S. Catholics. He generally has been viewed more positively than his immediate predecessor, Pope Benedict XVI, but less positively than Benedict’s predecessor, Pope John Paul II.

A chart showing three-quarters of U.S. Catholics rate Pope Francis favorably

(Benedict’s favorability ratings varied between 67% and 83% during his pontificate. Upward of 90% of U.S. Catholics expressed favorable views of John Paul II on the three occasions that the Center asked about him in polls between 1987 and 1996.)

A chart showing large partisan divide in U.S. Catholics’ opinions of
Pope Francis

The partisan gap in views of Pope Francis is now as large as it’s ever been in our surveys. Roughly nine-in-ten Catholics who are Democrats or lean toward the Democratic Party hold a positive view of him, compared with 63% of Catholics who are Republicans or lean Republican.

Regardless of their partisan leanings, most U.S. Catholics regard Francis as an agent of change. Overall, about seven-in-ten say the current pope represents a change in direction for the church, including 42% who say he represents a major change.

A chart showing 4 in 10 U.S. Catholics see Pope Francis as major change for the church

Many U.S. Catholics would welcome more change. For example, the survey finds that:

  • 83% of U.S. Catholics want the church to allow the use of contraception.
  • 75% say the church should allow Catholics to take Communion even if they are unmarried and living with a romantic partner.
  • 69% say priests should be allowed to get married.
  • 64% say women should be allowed to become priests.
  • 54% say the church should recognize the marriages of gay and lesbian couples.

Bar chart showing majorities of U.S. Catholics support the church allowing birth control, marriage for
priests as well as other measures

But there are also many Catholics who say the church should not take these steps. A new analysis in this report compares U.S. Catholics who favor these changes with those who oppose them. It shows that:

  • The Catholics who mostly favor a variety of changes are largely Democrats or lean Democratic (57%), and many say they seldom or never attend Mass (56%).
  • The Catholics who mostly say the church should not take these steps are predominantly Republicans or lean Republican (72%), and many say they attend Mass at least once a week (59%).

How we worded these questions

These are among the key findings of a Pew Research Center survey conducted Feb. 13-25, 2024, among a nationally representative sample of 12,693 respondents, including 2,019 Catholic adults.

Click below to read more information about:

Catholics’ views of Pope Francis

Bar chart showing views of Pope Francis among U.S. Catholics

The 75% favorability rating for Pope Francis by U.S. Catholics represents a decrease of 8 points from the last time we asked this question, in September 2021. Then, 83% said they viewed him mostly or very favorably.

The overall drop in favorability reflects growing dissatisfaction with the current pope among Catholics who identify as Republicans or independents who lean toward the Republican Party. Fully 35% of Catholic Republicans and Republican leaners now say they have an unfavorable view of Pope Francis, compared with just 7% of Catholic Democrats and Democratic leaners.

This survey marks the first time that more than 28% of Catholic Republicans have expressed unfavorable views of Francis in roughly a dozen times we have asked this question since his papacy began in 2013.

While Catholic Republicans have grown more negative toward Pope Francis, the views of Catholic Democrats have barely budged over the last decade. The 89% of Catholic Democrats who now express a favorable view of the pontiff is virtually identical to the 87% who said this in our February 2014 survey.

Catholics’ views on this question vary little by race, gender, age or Mass attendance.

Perceptions of Pope Francis as a source of change

Bar chart showing 42% of U.S. Catholics think Pope Francis represents
major change in direction for the Catholic Church

As previously noted, about seven-in-ten Catholics see Pope Francis as representing either a major (42%) or minor (30%) change in the direction of the church.

The view that Francis represents a big change for the church is especially pronounced among Catholics who view him unfavorably.

Among those with an unfavorable view of the pope, 54% say he represents a major change in direction for the church, while 20% say he represents a minor change.

Those who view Francis favorably are less likely than those with unfavorable views to see him as a major change (41%), and more likely to say he represents a minor change (35%).

Views about the priesthood, contraception, sexuality

Big differences between Mass-attending Catholics and those who don’t go

Catholics who attend Mass regularly (once a week or more) are far more inclined than those who go less often to say the church should take a traditional or conservative approach on questions about the priesthood and sexuality.

For instance, 65% of weekly Mass attenders say the church should not recognize the marriages of same-sex couples. And 56% say the church should not allow women to become priests.

Bar chart showing most U.S. Catholics who attend Mass weekly say the
church should not recognize same-sex marriages

By comparison, most Catholics who don’t attend Mass weekly say the church should recognize the marriages of same-sex couples (61%) and ordain women priests (71%).

There are similar differences in opinion on the survey’s questions about contraception, allowing priests to marry, and allowing Communion for Catholics living with a romantic partner outside of marriage. However, on all three questions, half of Catholics or more in both groups – those who attend regularly and those who don’t – say the church should take these steps.

The survey also shows that Catholic Democrats are more likely than Catholic Republicans to say they want the church to allow married priests, women priests, contraception, same-sex marriages and access to Communion for those living with a partner outside of marriage.

Older Catholics, White Catholics and Catholic women tend to be a bit more inclined than younger Catholics, Hispanic Catholics and Catholic men to say the church should make these changes, though differences by age, race and ethnicity, and gender are often modest and aren’t seen on every question.

Table showing in the U.S., more Catholic Democrats than Republicans say they want the church to
allow women to become priests, recognize same-sex marriages

Trends over time

Pew Research Center previously asked these questions (or similar questions) about the Catholic Church’s approach to the priesthood and sexuality in telephone surveys conducted between 2013 and 2015. The switch in survey mode (from telephone to web) means it’s important to use caution when comparing results over time.1

Nevertheless, the data suggests there has been an increase over the last decade or so in the share of Catholics who favor allowing unmarried people who are living with a romantic partner to receive Communion. There also appears to be a slight increase in the share of Catholics who say the church should allow birth control.

The shares of Catholics who say the church should allow priests to get married, allow women to become priests and recognize the marriages of gay and lesbian couples are in the same ballpark as they were a decade ago.

Table showing trends in U.S. Catholics’ views about birth control, the priesthood and sexuality

Summing up views about the Catholic Church’s approach to priesthood, sexuality

Bar chart showing the summary scale of U.S. Catholics’ responses to
questions about birth control, priesthood, sexuality

We created a scale to summarize U.S. Catholics’ views about whether the church should or should not do the following things:

  • Allow Catholics to use birth control
  • Allow Catholics to take Communion even if they are unmarried and living with a romantic partner
  • Allow priests to get married
  • Allow women to become priests
  • Recognize the marriages of gay and lesbian couples

Overall, 61% of Catholics mostly say the church should take these steps, while 15% of Catholics mostly say the church should not. About a quarter express mixed views, saying the church should do some of these things but not others.2

Weekly Mass attenders are much more likely than those who go less often to say the church should not do these things. Even among weekly Mass-goers, though, roughly one-third mostly say the church should allow contraception, marriage for priests, women’s ordination to the priesthood, Communion for couples living together outside of marriage, and recognition of same-sex marriages.

Catholic Democrats and Democratic leaners are much more likely than Catholic Republicans and Republican leaners to say the church mostly should bring about these changes. Meanwhile, Catholic Republicans are more likely than Catholic Democrats to say the church mostly should not take these steps.

Profile of Catholics by their views on whether the church should/should not allow contraception, marriage for priests, and more

Another way to analyze these findings is to flip the lens and analyze the data from the other direction – to ask: Who are the Catholics who mostly say the church should not allow contraception, marriage for priests, women’s ordination, Communion for cohabiting couples or recognition of same-sex marriages? And who are the Catholics who mostly say the church should do these things?

Among Catholics who mostly say the church should not do these things:

  • 59% say they attend Mass at least once a week.
  • 72% identify with or lean toward the Republican Party.

By contrast, among Catholics who mostly say the church should do these things:

  • 56% say they seldom or never attend Mass.
  • 57% identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party.

The share of White Catholics in the “mostly should not” category is modestly lower (at a 90% confidence level) than the share of White Catholics in the “mostly should” category.

And the share of men in the “mostly should not” category is modestly higher (at a 90% confidence level) than the share of men in the “mostly should” category.

Table showing the profile of U.S. Catholics who say the church should or should not allow
contraception, marriage for priests, ordination for women, and more

(PEW)

12 April 2024

Source: https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2024/04/12/majority-of-u-s-catholics-express-favorable-view-of-pope-francis/

 

839-844-43-18/Polls

In Tight Presidential Race, Voters Are Broadly Critical Of Both Biden And Trump

As the 2024 presidential race heats up, American voters face a similar set of choices as they did four years ago – and many are not happy about it.

With the election still more than six months away, a new Pew Research Center survey finds that the presidential race is virtually tied: 49% of registered voters favor Donald Trump or lean toward voting for him, while 48% support or lean toward Joe Biden.

Chart shows About two-thirds of voters have little or no confidence that Biden is physically fit to be president; nearly as many lack confidence in Trump to act ethically

A defining characteristic of the contest is that voters overall have little confidence in either candidate across a range of key traits, including fitness for office, personal ethics and respect for democratic values.

Where Trump has the advantage: More than a third of voters say they are extremely or very confident that Trump has the physical fitness (36%) and mental fitness (38%) needed to do the job of president.

Far fewer say the same of Biden (15% are at least very confident in his physical fitness; 21% are extremely or very confident in his mental fitness). Majorities say they are not too or not at all confident in Biden’s physical and mental fitness.

Where Biden has the advantage: More voters are extremely or very confident in Biden (34%) than in Trump (26%) to act ethically in office. And while 38% say they are at least very confident in Biden to respect the country’s democratic values, fewer (34%) express that level of confidence in Trump. The survey was conducted before the start of Trump’s “hush money” trial in New York City.

(Read more about voters’ views of Biden and Trump in Chapter 2.)

The state of the 2024 presidential race

Chart showing In 2020 rematch, nearly identical shares of voters favor Trump and Biden

The new Center survey of 8,709 adults – including 7,166 registered voters – conducted April 8-14, 2024, finds large divides in voters’ candidate preference by age, education, and race and ethnicity. As was the case in 2020, younger voters and those with a four-year college degree are more likely to favor Biden than Trump.

Older voters and those with no college degree favor Trump by large margins.

Among racial and ethnic groups:

  • White voters favor Trump (56%) over Biden (42%) by a wide margin.
  • Roughly three-quarters of Black voters (77%) support Biden, while 18% back Trump.
  • Hispanic voters are more evenly divided – 52% favor Biden, while 44% back Trump.
  • Asian voters favor Biden (59%) over Trump (36%).

(Read more about voters’ candidate preferences in Chapter 1.)

Most voters who turned out in 2020 favor the same candidate in 2024. Among validated 2020 voters, overwhelming majorities of those who cast ballots for Biden (91%) and Trump (94%) support the same candidate this year. Registered voters who did not vote in 2020 are about evenly divided: 48% back Trump, while 46% support Biden.

A majority of voters say “it really matters who wins” the 2024 race. Today, 69% of voters say it really matters which candidate wins the presidential contest this November. This is somewhat smaller than the share who said this in April 2020 about that year’s election (74%). Nearly identical shares of Biden’s and Trump’s supporters say the outcome of the presidential race really matters.

About half of voters would replace both Biden and Trump on the 2024 ballot

Reflecting their dissatisfaction with the Biden-Trump matchup, nearly half of registered voters (49%) say that, if they had the ability to decide the major party candidates for the 2024 election, they would replace both Biden and Trump on the ballot.

Chart shows About half of voters would like to see both Biden and Trump replaced on the 2024 ballot

Biden’s supporters are especially likely to say they would replace both candidates if they had the chance. Roughly six-in-ten (62%) express this view, compared with 35% of Trump supporters.

There also are stark age differences in these views: 66% of voters under 30 say they would replace both candidates if they had the chance, compared with 54% of those ages 30 to 49 and fewer than half (43%) of those 50 and older.

(Read more about voters’ feelings toward the upcoming election in Chapter 3.)

Evaluations of the Biden and Trump presidencies

Chart shows About 4 in 10 voters say Trump was a good or great president; around 3 in 10 say this about Biden today

  • 42% of voters overall say Trump was a good or great president, while 11% say he was average. This is a modest improvement since March 2021, two months after he left office.
  • 28% of voters say Biden is a good or great president, while 21% say he is average. These views are mostly on par with June 2020 assessments of the kind of president Biden would be – but today, a smaller share of voters say he is average.

(Read more about ratings of Biden’s and Trump’s presidencies in Chapter 1.)

Other findings: Biden’s job approval ticks up, Trump’s election-related criminal charges

  • Biden’s approval among the general public: Today, Biden’s approval rating sits at 35% – roughly on par with his rating in January (33%). His job rating has climbed slightly among Democrats over that period, however. Today, 65% of Democrats approve of him – up 4 percentage points since January. (Read more about Biden’s approval rating in Chapter 4.)
  • Conceding the presidential election: A majority of voters say it is important that the losing candidate in November publicly acknowledge the winner as the legitimate president. But Trump’s supporters are far less likely than Biden’s to say it is very important (44% vs. 77%).  (Read more about voters’ views on election concession in Chapter 3.)

Trump’s criminal charges related to the 2020 election

As Trump faces charges that he sought to overturn the outcome of the 2020 election, 45% of Americans say they think Trump’s actions broke the law. This compares with 38% who say his actions did not break the law – including 15% who say his actions were wrong but not illegal, and 23% who say he did nothing wrong. Nearly two-in-ten are not sure.

Chart shows Public divided over criminal allegations that Trump tried to overturn the 2020 election

Democrats mostly say Trump broke the law; Republicans are more divided. An overwhelming majority of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents (78%) say Trump’s actions in seeking to change the outcome of the 2020 election broke the law. 

Among Republicans and Republican leaners:

  • 49% say Trump did nothing wrong.
  • 21% say he did something wrong but did not break the law.
  • 9% say Trump broke the law.
  • 20% are not sure.

(PEW)

24 April 2024

Source: https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/04/24/in-tight-presidential-race-voters-are-broadly-critical-of-both-biden-and-trump/

 

839-844-43-19/Polls

A Growing Share Of Americans Have Little Or No Confidence In Netanyahu

A majority of Americans (53%) have little or no confidence in Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to do the right thing regarding world affairs, including 25% who have no confidence in him at all. Three-in-ten say they have at least some confidence in him, according to a Pew Research Center survey of 3,600 U.S. adults conducted April 1-7, 2024.

A diverging bar chart showing that the share of Americans without confidence in Netanyahu has increased since 2023.

The share of Americans who have no confidence in Netanyahu has increased 11 percentage points since 2023. This includes an 8-point increase in the share who have no confidence in him at all.

This shift is related to a change in awareness of Netanyahu. In 2023, around a quarter of Americans (26%) said they had never heard of him, but that share has fallen to 15% this year.

How we did this

Americans’ views of Netanyahu differ by party and by certain demographic factors:

Partisanship

A diverging bar chart showing that Democrats are much less confident in Netanyahu than Republicans are.

Republicans and Republican-leaning independents have much more positive views of Netanyahu than Democrats and Democratic leaners do. Around half of Republicans (51%) say they have at least some confidence in him to do the right thing regarding world affairs, while only 13% of Democrats say the same. Among Democrats, many more say they have no confidence in him at all (38%) than report even having some confidence in him.

Conservative Republicans (62%) are twice as likely as moderate and liberal Republicans (31%) to say they have at least some confidence in Netanyahu. Conservative and moderate Democrats (17%) also express more confidence than liberals (7%).

There are also age differences among partisans. For example, Republicans ages 50 and older have much more confidence in Netanyahu than younger Republicans do (69% vs. 33% have at least some confidence). Age differences are more modest among Democrats: 16% of older Democrats have confidence in the Israeli prime minister, compared with 10% of younger Democrats.

Among both Republicans and Democrats, the share expressing little or no confidence in Netanyahu has increased since last year. However, the shift among Democrats (+15 points) has been three times as large as the shift among Republicans (+5 points).

Age

A line chart showing that awareness of Netanyahu has increased among young U.S. adults since 2023.

Older Americans are significantly more likely than younger ones to have positive views of Netanyahu. About four-in-ten Americans ages 50 and older (42%) have at least some confidence in him to do the right thing regarding world affairs. That compares with around a quarter of those ages 30 to 49 and only 13% of adults under 30.

The youngest U.S. adults have grown more negative toward Netanyahu since last year. The share of adults under 30 who have little or no confidence in Netanyahu has risen from 37% then to 55% today. This is related, in part, to the 20-point decrease in the share of young adults who say they have never heard of Netanyahu.

Views of the Israeli government

Americans’ views of the Israeli government have also turned more negative since 2022, according to a Center survey conducted this February. About four-in-ten Americans (41%) have a favorable view of the Israeli government, down from 47% in 2022 and on par with the share who said this in 2019. Notably, the 2022 survey was the only one to take place when Netanyahu was not in office.

As with Netanyahu, when it comes to evaluations of the Israeli government, Republicans have much more favorable views than Democrats (63% vs. 24% favorable), and older Americans have more positive views than younger ones.

(PEW)

25 April 2024

Source: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/04/25/a-growing-share-of-americans-have-little-or-no-confidence-in-netanyahu/

 

839-844-43-20/Polls

Number Of Canadians Cheering For “Any” Canadian Team To Win The Stanley Cup Rises 7 Points From 2016

Just days before the National Hockey League’s regular season ends and the spring rite of passage that is playoffs begin, Canadians know that they’ll have four representatives in the perennial springtime battle for the Stanley Cup.

New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds renewed hope that one of Vancouver, Edmonton, Winnipeg, or Toronto will bring Canadians a desperately sought after Stanley Cup parade. This, more than three decades after the Montreal Canadiens won the Cup in 1993.

Asked which team they believe represents Canada’s best opportunity, Canadian hockey fans are divided equally between the Toronto Maple Leafs (21%) and Edmonton Oilers (20%). Fewer, but still 14 per cent say the Vancouver Canucks will be the team to break the drought, while just five per cent believe the Winnipeg Jets have what it takes.

For many Canadians, the team to win has evidently become less important than the act of winning. In 2016, 57 per cent of Canadians said they didn’t care which team ended the drought, while 43 per cent said the team to win was important to them. Now, nearing two-thirds (64%) say they’ll cheer for any team that calls Canada home.

As to which team Canadians will be cheering for, a considerable east-west divide exists. Ontario east, the Leafs are easily the top choice for hockey fans, with three-quarters in Ontario (73%) and half in Atlantic Canada (52%) cheering for Auston Matthews and Co. In British Columbia, it’s largely Canucks or bust, with 83 per cent of NHL followers in that province cheering for the odds-on Norris favourite Quinn Hughes and his team. The same story is true in Manitoba, where that province’s hockey fans hope the Jets can take flight and mount a run to the Cup final in June. Two-thirds of Albertans who follow the NHL (64%) will be pulling for last year’s league MVP Connor McDavid and the Oilers, though evidently Calgary fans hold back some of the enthusiasm for that province’s only representative in the tournament.

More Key Findings:canada stanley cup drought

  • Seven-in-ten Canadians say they pay at least some attention to the NHL (70%), while two-in-five could be considered active fans (40%). This is the highest mark noted by ARI in nearly a decade of asking Canadians about the league.
  • Among the pool of hockey fans – that aforementioned 70 per cent of the population – about half say they’re excited about playoff hockey. This excitement jumps in B.C., Alberta, Manitoba, and Ontario, where provincial teams are represented, and drops lowest in Quebec, where the Montreal Canadiens rebuild continues.
  • The Toronto Maple Leafs have also been the top hope for Canada to win a Stanley cup in 2019 and 2021 surveys, but have not made an Eastern Conference final since 2002 

INDEX

Part One: Excitement high in represented markets

Part Two: Canada’s best hope?

  • Leafs, Oilers both chosen by one-in-five as the team to end Cup curse
  • Which team is “Canada’s Team”?
  • As Stanley Cup drought grows, more say they’ll cheer for any Canadian team

 

Part One: Excitement high in represented markets

For many Canadians, it’s the most wonderful time of the sporting year. Hockey is a game that, despite perceptions of massive cultural challenges facing it, defines how many people view this nation. Despite this passion and investment, each year for the past three decades, Canadian hockey fans have been left with a sour taste in their mouths, watching American rivals (yes, largely made up of Canadian players) raise the Stanley Cup.

Related:

The National Hockey League itself, appears to be in a good place, as two-in-five Canadians (40%) now consider themselves fans of the league. This is a higher mark than was reported in 2021, 2019, and 2016. Commissioner Gary Bettman recently argued that game has never been better, with stars and talent abound, and expansion into Las Vegas and Seattle both accomplished in the past eight years.

canada stanley cup drought

The Stanley Cup Playoffs are set to begin later this week, with Vancouver, Edmonton, Winnipeg, and Toronto all punching their ticket to the four-round tournament. Among those who watch hockey, enthusiasm is highest in provincial markets that have teams represented, though at least two-in-five fans in every region say they’re looking forward to playoffs.

canada stanley cup drought

Fandom breaks down on gender lines more than generations, with men of all ages more likely to be fans of the NHL (see detailed tables) and to say that they’re excited to drop the puck on the playoffs. Men over the age of 54 show the highest levels of enthusiasm:

canada stanley cup drought

Part Two: Canada’s best hope?

Canadian teams have frequently come ever-so-close to winning the Stanley Cup since 1993. Some have called it a curse, while others have cried foul against the NHL, suggesting the league prefers American winners. Regardless of the reason, the Canucks (twice), Flames, and Oilers have all come within one game of winning the Cup over the last three decades, while both the Ottawa Senators (2007) and Montreal Canadiens (2020) have made the finals.

Asked which team is the best bet to break the drought, one-in-five choose Toronto (21%) or Edmonton (20%) respectively, while 14 per cent choose Vancouver. A persistent three to five per cent of Canadian hockey fans continue to say that no Canadian team will ever win the Cup again:

canada stanley cup drought

Which team is “Canada’s Team”?

Looking at this another way, ARI asked Canadian hockey fans which team they would like to see win the Stanley Cup this year. Forced to choose, the largest number say the Toronto Maple Leafs, buoyed by Ontario’s larger population. Equal numbers say Vancouver (23%) or Edmonton (22%), while Winnipeg receives the support of 13 per cent:

canada stanley cup drought

As Stanley Cup drought grows, more say they’ll cheer for any Canadian team

Many Canadians hold their allegiance close and say that there are only certain Canadian teams they will cheer for because of rivalries. That said, this proportion may be shrinking under the pressure of the three-decade Stanley Cup drought. Compared to responses from 2016, the proportion of Canadians saying they will cheer for any Canadian team has grown by seven points:

canada stanley cup drought

(Angus Reid Institute)

15 April 2024

Source: https://angusreid.org/nhl-playoffs-2024/

 

839-844-43-21/Polls

Seven-In-Ten Gen Z, Millennials Say Trudeau’s Government Not Working In Their Interest

As the federal government looks to address “generation fairness” in its most recent budget, new data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds most Canadians doubting it’s working for any generation at all.

In the second part of a post-budget scan of Canadian public opinion, seven-in-ten Canadians of all generations say they don’t believe the federal government under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is working in the best interest of their age group. Vast majorities of Gen Z adults (18- to 24-year-olds) and Millennials (25- to 44-year-olds) also express doubt the Liberals have their best interest at heart, despite a volley of measures in the recent budget aimed at some of their top issues.

Canadians’ top issues vary by generation but have been consistent for several years, with health care and affordability rating as high concerns since the end of the COVID-19 pandemic. On the latter, there has been some abatement. Half (51%) of Canadians believe cost of living to be a top issue, an 11-point drop from last year.

Both health care and affordability have been policy foci for the federal government in recent years. Still, when it comes to both issues, Canadians are more likely to say someone other than Trudeau is best to lead.

On health care, 28 per cent of Canadians say Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre is the best choice. Trudeau (14%) finishes behind NDP leader Jagmeet Singh (22%) and none of the above (22%) and is tied with “not sure” (14%). On housing affordability, Poilievre again leads (31%) and Trudeau (13%) trails “none of them” (24%), and Singh (19%) and ties “not sure” (13%). The Conservative leader also outpaces Singh and Trudeau combined when it comes to issues of the economy and handling the deficit.

Gen Z adults are more likely to say Poilievre (25%), Singh (23%) and none of them (21%) are the best choice for prime minister than Trudeau (10%), while Millennials believe Poilievre is the best choice at a plurality level.

https://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/word-image-80120-1.png

More Key Findings:

  • Twice as many Canadians (28%) select the deficit/government spending as a top issue as a year ago (14%).
  • Two-in-five (43%) Canadians believe Poilievre is best to handle the deficit, outpacing Trudeau (13%) and Singh (8%) combined by a two-to-one ratio.
  • When it comes to who is best to lead on various issues, Trudeau performs best on Indigenous issues and the environment. In both cases, one-in-five Canadians believe he is the best choice, and similar numbers choose Poilievre and Singh.

About ARI

The Angus Reid Institute (ARI) was founded in October 2014 by pollster and sociologist, Dr. Angus Reid. ARI is a national, not-for-profit, non-partisan public opinion research foundation established to advance education by commissioning, conducting and disseminating to the public accessible and impartial statistical data, research and policy analysis on economics, political science, philanthropy, public administration, domestic and international affairs and other socio-economic issues of importance to Canada and its world.

Part One: The differing priorities of older and younger Canadians

Canada’s post-pandemic era has been defined by two pressing priorities: a health-care system in crisis dealing with myriad problems and rising cost of living squeezing Canadians’ budgets with rising rent and mortgage payments and steeper bills at the grocery store.

Younger generations prioritize affordability, older generations health care

These dueling crises affect Canadians of different ages in different ways. Older Canadians, who are more likely to be homeowners and to have more fiscal security, are much more concerned about access to primary health care as they age. Inversely, younger Canadians, who are less likely to need the health-care system at the moment, express higher concerns over affordability, and whether or not they’ll be able to enter the housing market to enjoy the security later in life afforded older Canadians now.

Notably, both health care and affordability have been the focus of the federal government in recent years. Last year, the federal government signed an agreement with the provinces providing a boost to the health transfer over the next decade. This month, the federal government took steps to address the cost of living with a package of programs, including numerous measures focused on rent and the housing market, in its most recent budget.

 

https://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/post-budget-2-1.png

However, as the federal government looks to solve the issues the country is facing by directing increased spending towards them, it is doing so by borrowing money. The budget deficit is projected to be $40 billion this year. Three-in-ten (28%) Canadians now select the government’s deficit spending as a top issue, double the number who said so last year.

A rise in concern with the deficit has coincided with a drop in worry over the rising cost of living. While still half of Canadians (51%) say it is their top issue, that is the fewest who have said so since the Angus Reid Institute first included it as an option in September 2022.

https://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/word-image-80120-2.png

Cost of living has fallen as an issue across all age groups, but the drop is most pronounced among those older than 54, who are the only age group to not select inflation as a top concern at a majority level:

https://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/word-image-80120-3.png

Across generations, Trudeau’s government not seen as working in their interests

The theme of the federal government’s budget is “generational fairness”, as it looks to address a housing market that has priced out many, especially younger Canadians. As the Liberal government embarks on this journey to make the country work better for Millennials and Gen Z, there are few that believe it’s working for their generation as it stands.

While older Canadians are the most likely to feel Trudeau and the federal government are working in their best interests, that is still a minority opinion. A majority of all generations say the opposite.

This is also true across the country, where at least two-thirds in every province do not believe the federal government is working toward the best interest of their generation (see detailed tables).

https://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/word-image-80120-4.png

Part Two: Who is best to handle top issues of the day?

The lack of belief that the current federal government is serving their best interest evidently has many Canadians looking elsewhere as they consider their vote for the next federal election.

Related: No Bounce: Liberals’ hoped-for support surge in wake of under-40 targeted spending blitz has yet to materialize

Poilievre seen as best on most issues

As Canadians assess the political landscape, they are more likely to see Trudeau’s rivals in Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre or NDP leader Jagmeet Singh or both as better choices to handle the issues they care most about.

Trudeau performs best on the Indigenous and environment portfolios, where one-in-five say he is the best leader to handle them. But for both files, that places him in a statistical tie with Poilievre and Singh, and behind “none of them”. On housing affordability, a focus of this year’s budget, Trudeau (13%) trails Poilievre (31%) and Singh (19%). He also falls behind his two rivals on health care.

Poilievre outpaces Singh and Trudeau by a two-to-one ratio as the best choice to deal with the deficit and the economy:

Q1https://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/word-image-80120-5.png

On housing affordability, Trudeau trails Singh and Poilievre among Gen Z, Millennials

These data were collected in the wake of the tabling of the budget, which included a multi-week rollout featuring announcements from Trudeau and his ministers across the country focusing on housing affordability. However, the generations Trudeau namechecked when he announced the budget do not offer him a ringing endorsement when it comes to dealing with the housing crisis affecting much of the country.

Fewer than one-in-ten Gen Z or Millennials say Trudeau is the best choice to lead on housing. Gen Z (18- to 24-year-olds) and younger Millennials (25- to 34-year-olds) are divided between Singh and Poilievre, while older Millennials (35- to 44-year-olds) lean Poilievre:

https://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/word-image-80120-6.png

Older Canadians see Poilievre as best choice to solve health care woes

Health care remains a pressing issue for many. It is a provincial jurisdiction, but the federal government does influence it through a funding agreement, which it increased last year after brokering a deal with the provinces. It also passed new policies to increase coverage of dental care, contraceptives and diabetes medication in recent months.

This has evidently inspired little confidence in Trudeau on this file. Canadians across generations are more likely to see either or both of Trudeau’s rivals as better options to lead on health care and are more likely to say no one is the best choice. Poilievre is the plurality choice for older Canadians, who view health care as the top issue the country is facing:

https://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/word-image-80120-7.png

The federal government’s deficit spending has caused considerable consternation in recent years as the country deals with rising inflation. Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem warned Trudeau prior to the budget that any major spending increases “could start getting in the way of getting inflation back down to the target on the timeline we’ve laid out”. Inflation has cooled considerably from figures seen in 2022 and 2023 but is still at the high end of the BoC’s target range in March, when it was 2.9 per cent.

The federal government did not include a timeline in this most recent budget as to when it would completely reduce the deficit to zero. Instead, it claims it plans to slowly reduce it over the next five years from the current $40 billion to a deficit of around $20 billion in 2028-29.

Perhaps with this in mind, Trudeau is a distant second to Poilievre when it comes to which leader Canadians believe is best to deal with the deficit. At least 37 per cent of Canadians of all ages believe the CPC leader is the best choice on this front:

https://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/word-image-80120-8.png

Best PM? Gen Z split between Poilievre, Singh; Xers and Boomers lean Poilievre

There appears to be much work to do for Trudeau to win over Gen Z and Millennial voters even in the wake of a budget designed to address their concerns. Gen Z adults are more likely to say Poilievre (25%), Singh (23%), and no one (21%) is the best prime minister of the major party leaders than Trudeau (10%). Millennials lean Poilievre and are more likely to select Singh than Trudeau. Trudeau performs better among Gen Xers and Boomers, but still trails Poilievre in those cohorts.

https://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/word-image-80120-9.png

(Angus Reid Institute)

25 April 2024

Source: https://angusreid.org/trudeau-budget-deficit-gen-z-millennials-poilievre-best-prime-minister/#gsc.tab=0

 

AUSTRALIA

839-844-43-22/Polls

Mortgage Stress Declined In March As Household Incomes Increased And The RBA Left Interest Rates Unchanged

New research from Roy Morgan shows although a large 1,531,000 mortgage holders (30.3%) were ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in the three months to March 2024, this result was a decrease of 98,000 (-1.1%) on a month earlier after the RBA elected to leave interest rates unchanged for the third straight meeting.

The level of mortgage stress in March is the lowest so far this year and this month’s decline has been driven by rising household incomes which has reduced the financial pressure on some mortgage holders. The figure of mortgage stress in March is very similar to the number of mortgage holders considered ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress in the three months to December 2023 which was 1,527,000 (30.3%).

The proportion of mortgage holders now ‘At Risk’ (30.3%) is well below the record high reached during the Global Financial Crisis because of the larger size of the Australian mortgage market today. The record high of 35.6% of mortgage holders in mortgage stress was reached in mid-2008.

724,000 more ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress nearly two years after interest rate increases began

The number of Australians ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress has increased by 724,000 since May 2022 when the RBA began a cycle of interest rate increases. Official interest rates are now at 4.35%, the highest interest rates have been since December 2011, over a decade ago.

The number of mortgage holders considered ‘Extremely At Risk’, is now numbered at 918,000 (18.7% of mortgage holders) which is significantly above the long-term average over the last 10 years of 14.4%.

Mortgage Stress – % of Owner-Occupied Mortgage-Holders

https://roymorgan-cms-prod.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/22233527/23.4A.png

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia), average interviews per 3 month period April 2007 – March 2024, n=2,784.
Base: Australians 14+ with owner occupied home loan.

Mortgages ‘At Risk’ set to increase to 1.54 million if RBA raises rates by +0.25% in May 2024

Roy Morgan has modelled the impact of potential RBA interest rate increases of +0.25% in May 2024 (+0.25% to 4.6%) and another increase of +0.25% in June 2024 (+0.25% to 4.85%).

In March, 30.3% of mortgage holders, 1,531,000, were considered ‘At Risk’. If the RBA raises interest rates by +0.25% in May to 4.6%, there will be 30.5% (up 0.2% points) of mortgage holders, 1,540,000, considered ‘At Risk’ in May 2024 – an increase of 9,000 on March 2024.

If the RBA raises interest rates by another +0.25% in June to 4.85%, there will be 31.1% (up 0.8% points) of mortgage holders, 1,572,000, considered ‘At Risk’ in June 2024 – an increase of 41,000 on March 2024.

Mortgage Risk projected forward following interest rate increases in May and June 2024

https://roymorgan-cms-prod.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/22233536/23.4B.png

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia), January – March 2024, n=3,478.
Base: Australians 14+ with owner occupied home loan.

How are mortgage holders considered ‘At Risk’ or ‘Extremely At Risk’ determined?

Roy Morgan considers the risk of ‘mortgage stress’ among Mortgage holders in two ways:

Mortgage holders are considered ‘At Risk’[1] if their mortgage repayments are greater than a certain percentage of household income – depending on income and spending.

Mortgage holders are considered ‘Extremely at Risk’[2] if even the ‘interest only’ is over a certain proportion of household income.

Unemployment is the key factor which has the largest impact on income and mortgage stress

It is worth understanding that this is a conservative forecasting model, essentially assuming all other factors remain the same.

The latest Roy Morgan unemployment estimates for March show almost one-in-five Australian workers are either unemployed or under-employed – 2,934,000 (18.8% of the workforce); (Australian unemployment dropped in March as part-time jobs surged; but this caused an increase in under-employment) – but a significant increase of 205,000 on a year ago.

While all eyes are on the latest inflation figures and their potential influence on future movements in interest rates, the fact remains that the greatest impact on an individual, or household’s, ability to pay their mortgage is not interest rates, it’s if they lose their job or main source of income.

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says mortgage stress has eased in March as a strong jobs market and rising household incomes has helped lower mortgage stress to its lowest for three months with 1.53 million mortgage holders now considered ‘At Risk’:

“The latest Roy Morgan data shows 1,531,000 mortgage holders were ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress in March 2024, down 98,000 from February, but virtually unchanged from December 2023 (1,527,000) – the month after the Reserve Bank raised interest rates to a 12 year high of 4.35%.

“Nevertheless, the figures for March 2024 represent an increase of 724,000 mortgage holders considered ‘At Risk’ since the RBA began raising interest rates in May 2022. The figures take into account 13 rate increases which raised interest rates by a total of 4.25% points to 4.35%.

“The pause in rate increases for the last five months since November 2023 has reduced the pressure on mortgage holders and allowed growth in several areas of the economy to ‘catch up’. Rising household incomes so far this year have been a significant driver of reducing mortgage stress from the highs above 1.6 million reached in recent months. The same reduction in mortgage stress was seen after the RBA paused rate increases for four months from July – October 2023.

“The latest ABS monthly inflation figures for February 2024 showed annual inflation at 3.4% – unchanged over the last three months since December 2023, but down a large 5% points from a year earlier. This is the equal lowest inflation for over two years since November 2021 (3.2%).

“Although inflation pressures have clearly eased, the level of inflation remains above the Reserve Bank’s preferred target range of 2-3% and inflation indicators such as petrol prices remain high. For the first time in history average retail petrol prices have been above $1.80 per litre for a record 41 straight weeks – equivalent to ten months.

“For these reasons we have modelled further interest rate increases of +0.25% in May and June 2024. If the RBA raises interest rates by 0.25% in May and June to 4.85%, Roy Morgan forecasts mortgage stress would increase to 1.57 million mortgage holders (31.1%) considered ‘At Risk’.

“The latest figures for March show that when considering the data on mortgage stress, it is always important to appreciate interest rates are only one of the variables that determines whether a mortgage holder is considered ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress.

“The variable that has the largest impact on whether a borrower falls into the ‘At Risk’ category is related to household income – directly related to employment. The employment market has been exceptionally strong over the last year, and this has underpinned rising household incomes that have helped to moderate the increases in mortgage stress since mid-2023.

“However, rising interest rates since May 2022 have caused a large increase in the number of mortgage holders considered ‘At Risk’. If there is a reacceleration in inflation over the months ahead, that results in further interest rate increases in 2024, levels of mortgage stress will begin to increase again later this year.”

(Roy Morgan)

23 April 2024

Source: https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9517-mortgage-stress-risk-march-2024

 

839-844-43-23/Polls

Saying It With Flowers Tops The $1 Billion Cash Splash On Mum For 12 May

Australians are set to spend $995 million on Mother’s Day this year – up $70 million, or 7.5% from 2023 – with flowers, alcohol, or an experience topping the gifts for mothers and others, research from the Australian Retailers Association (ARA) in collaboration with Roy Morgan reveals. 

Despite the increased spend, 400,000 fewer people are set to buy Mother’s Day gifts this year – highlighting the impact of the cost-of-living crunch.

The higher overall spend is due to a higher spend per person of $102 (up from $92 in 2023), reflecting inflationary driven price increases and indicating those who are less affected by cost-of-living pressures are spending more.

The most popular gifts are tipped to be: 

  • Flowers: mentioned by 41% of respondents (up from 27% in 2023).
  • Alcohol/food: mentioned by 17% of respondents (down from 29% in 2023).
  • An experience (trip away, dinner out): mentioned by 16% of respondents (up from 5% in 2023).
  • Clothing/shoes/sleepwear: mentioned by 10% of respondents (broadly the same as 2023).

Continuing the trend in recent years, about a fifth (19%) of people who purchase a present will be gifting somebody other than their birth mother. This includes their partner, friend, mother-in-law, grandmother, sister and daughter.  

About 20% of Australians will celebrate the occasion with a meal at a café or restaurant, while 35% percent of Aussies will spoil mum with a feast at home.   

ARA CEO Paul Zahra said retailer promotions have already begun, with florists set to be the biggest beneficiaries.

“With Mother’s Day just under four weeks away, most Australians are ready to generously spend to show appreciation for their mothers, despite ongoing financial pressures,” he said.

“Whilst the overall spend is higher this year, less Australians will be buying gifts – which shows us how cost-of-living pressures and high interest rates are disproportionately affecting families.

“Mother’s Day is not only a celebration of mothers and their countless sacrifices but also an opportunity for many to express gratitude towards their partners, caregivers, and other family members.

“With flowers rising to the top of the gift list this year, it’s clear that celebrations will have a soft and sentimental theme, after what has been a tough year for many households.

“While the cost of living might deter personal indulgences, people remain eager to treat their loved ones. Champagne and chocolates remain a popular choice with family gatherings and dinners also popular, benefiting the food and hospitality sectors.

“Naturally with an event such as Mother’s Day, it will also be a busy time for florists across the country – so we urge shoppers to avoid leaving their purchases until the last minute as flowers are the perfect gift to pre-order online.”

(Roy Morgan)

24 April 2024

Source: https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9532-ara-roy-morgan-media-release-mothers-day-2024

 

MULTICOUNTRY STUDIES

839-844-43-24/Polls

Global Study Aims To Uncover How Humans Flourish, A Study Across 22 Nations

The inaugural results from the multiyear Global Flourishing study reveal intriguing relationships between religion and how well people’s lives are going.

Future administrations of this survey will interview the same 200,000 individuals contacted for the first study. This longitudinal approach offers researchers an unprecedented opportunity to gain a deeper understanding of these relationships in ways that multicountry, cross-sectional surveys cannot.

What Is Human Flourishing?

The primary interest of the Global Flourishing study is human flourishing, which is a multidimensional construct. The study includes 12 survey questions measuring six domains of flourishing identified in previous research:

  • happiness and life satisfaction
  • physical and mental health
  • meaning and purpose
  • character and virtue
  • close social relationships
  • financial and material stability

These self-reported responses can be averaged into an index ranging between zero and 10, where zero is the absence of flourishing and 10 is comprehensive attainment.1

The mean flourishing score falls between 6.5 and 8.0 in most of the 21 countries and one territory where data are collected. The mean score was below 6.5 only in Türkiye and Japan, and above 8.0 only in Indonesia. In the United States, the mean score was 7.11.2

 

What Is the Association Between Religion and Human Flourishing?

In addition to a host of social, demographic, economic, political and psychological measures, the Global Flourishing study asks questions about spiritual and religious beliefs and practices that may be linked to human flourishing.

The results from the first wave of data collection for the Global Flourishing study suggest certain aspects of religious observance and practice are associated with higher flourishing scores.

The flourishing score for those who identify as spiritual, religious or both is statistically higher on average than those who identify as neither, both with and without controlling for other factors. However, the difference when controlling for other factors is small (less than 0.06 points).

The association with flourishing is substantively larger for religiosity and religious service attendance. In terms of religiosity, the average flourishing score is 0.23 points higher for someone who says religion is an important part of daily life than someone who does not when controlling for other factors. In terms of attendance, the average flourishing score is 0.41 points higher for someone who attends at least weekly than someone who never attends. (See the PDF at the end of the article for the regression results.)

While religiosity and religious service attendance are associated with higher levels of flourishing, context is useful to understand the magnitude of the relationship. For instance, aspects of an individual’s economic situation are well-known predictors. Controlling for other factors, the flourishing score for someone who reports:

  • being “employed by an employer” is, on average, 0.22 points higher than "unemployed and looking for work”
  • “living comfortably on present income” is, on average, 2.02 points higher than someone “finding it very difficult”

Another aspect worth observing is how the relationship between these predictors and human flourishing varies across countries and territories. For instance, the correlation between flourishing and religious service attendance ranges significantly.

Accounting for other factors, including participation in secular community activities, no notable difference in flourishing exists in Indonesia and Tanzania among those who attend religious services at least once a week compared with those who never attend. In contrast, the average flourishing score difference between those who attend services at least once weekly and those who never attend is largest in the Philippines (0.67 points) and Türkiye (0.73 points).

Bottom Line

The Global Flourishing study offers data to researchers interested in understanding what factors facilitate human flourishing for over 200,000 individuals.

Regarding the relationship between religion and how well people’s lives are going, the inaugural wave of data will help researchers:

  • isolate what aspects of religion and spirituality promote which domains of human flourishing
  • establish the conditions moderating these associations across diverse societies
  • examine whether childhood religious participation is associated with present flourishing

These results are only associations. The public release of subsequent waves will allow researchers to undertake causally oriented analyses that are only possible with longitudinal panel data. For example, researchers can better assess evidence of whether more frequent religious service attendance causes greater human flourishing by tracking changes in this relationship among the same individuals over time.

Moreover, because of the large sample size, the Global Flourishing study will make it possible to examine the degree to which adherents of different religious traditions, including those with no religion, do or do not flourish over time in different cultures and contexts.

The Global Flourishing study is a public good premised on the open science principles of transparency, replicability and equality. Researchers can access these data by submitting pre-analysis plans with the Center for Open Science.

(Gallup)

28 March 2024

Source: https://news.gallup.com/poll/642680/global-study-aims-uncover-humans-flourish.aspx

 

839-844-43-25/Polls

Close To Nine In 10 In Favour Of Global Rules Banning Plastics In 32 Countries

Key findings:

  • 90%, on average across 32 countries, agree to have global rules banning chemicals used in plastic that are hazardous to human health and the environment.
  • 87% agree it’s essential/important to reduce the amount of plastic produced globally.
  • The same proportion (87%) say types of plastic that can’t be easily recycled in all of the countries where they are used should be banned.
  • More than eight in 10 (85%) agree it’s key to have global rules banning unnecessary single-use plastic products such as shopping bags, cutlery, cups and plates.
  • Almost three in four (73%) agree with establishing clear consequences for governments that break the rules of the United Nations final global treaty to end plastic pollution, which is expected to be rolled out by the end of 2024; The same proportion (73%) agree rules to make plastic producers accountable for reducing waste and plastic pollution from their products.
  • 72% agree with ensuring all participating countries have access to funding, technology and other resources to comply with the new global rules, with those in Africa (80%) the most supportive.

Saying goodbye to plastic

The world is awash in plastic.

And our new Global Advisor polling, in partnership with the Plastic Free Foundation and WWF, finds many are ready for a sea change.

Majorities in all 32 countries agree with a range of bans, including banning chemicals used in plastic that are hazardous to human health and the environment with support strongest in Indonesia (98%) and lowest in Japan (73%). People in Japan are also the least likely (71%) to say it’s essential/important to reduce the amount of plastic produced globally while those in Indonesia (97%) are the most likely to agree. The Japanese (67%) once again are at the bottom when it comes to banning types of plastic that can’t be easily recycled in all of the countries where they are used while those in Indonesia (96%) are most supportive. 

Despite single-use plastics being a part of many peoples daily lives for many years most look to be open to adopting new ways of doing things with the vast majority (85% on average across 32 countries) saying it’s essential/important to ban unnecessary single-use plastic products, such as shopping bags, cutlery, cups and plates.

Preparing to say hello to a new global treaty

The United Nations is one step closer to finalizing a global treaty to end plastic pollution that was first announced in March 2022. The finer details are still being hammered out, but the UN expects to deliver a legally binding agreement by the end of this year. 

While there’s pretty strong consensus surrounding banning plastics and plastic byproducts, there’s slightly less, though still solid, support for rules around penalties for governments and manufacturers role in reducing plastic production and pollution. 

Almost three in four (73%) at a global level support establishing clear consequences for governments that break the rules of the United Nations final treaty to end plastic pollution. The same proportion (73%) support rules to make plastic producers accountable for reducing waste and plastic pollution from their products.

Proposals to ban plastics and hold governments and manufacturers more accountable might sound nice in theory and people, particularly those in lower-income countries, are the most focused on how to make drastically cutting plastic pollution a global reality. 

Close to three-quarters (72% on average across 32 countries) agree with ensuring all participating countries in the UN treaty have access to funding, technology and other resources to comply with the rules — but there’s quite the range depending on where one lives, going from 80% in Africa to just 61% in North America.

(Ipsos Global)

16 April 2024

Source: https://www.ipsos.com/en/close-nine-10-favour-global-rules-banning-plastics

 

839-844-43-26/Polls

Stress Levels Rise Around The World, Views Of People In 39 Countries

The Worldwide Independent Network of MR (WIN), the world’s leading independent association in market research and polling, reveals the Annual WIN World Survey, exploring the views and beliefs of over 33,000 people in 39 countries across the globe. Today WIN releases the latest results of the survey to uncover the findings, any improvements, or developments, made globally in various areas related to health, including mental health and stress.

Mapping Health Scores around the World

The perception of health levels around the world is positive, with 57% feeling healthy, and 17% very healthy. Numbers, however, are still slightly below the pre-pandemic level when a total of 76% globally reported to feel healthy or very healthy.

While the previous wave showed that the country with the highest reported levels of poor health was Poland (49% of respondents), this year is Nigeria with 50% of people reporting poor health. Overall, Africa emerges to be the region with poorest perceived health (40%), while in APAC only 17% of people report the same perception.

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Increased Stress Level

In the previous survey wave, 40% of individuals worldwide rated their overall stress levels as either “quite poor” or “very poor”. This year, WIN asked respondents about their stress levels in their daily lives. The results revealed that only 6% never experience stress, while 16% almost never do, leaving 79% of individuals experiencing stress to varying degrees of severity. People feeling most stressed daily are those working full time (82%), and students (83%).

By geography, the most “relaxed” part of the world is APAC with 26% never or almost never feeling stressed. On the other hand, the other regions share very similar percentages with only between 19% (Americas, MENA) and 20% (Europe, Africa) never or almost never feeling stressed.

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Work and Money Main Reasons for Stress

Work emerges as the main reason for people feeling stressed globally (24%). Men particularly worry about this area of life, with 27% reporting that their job is what brings them stress, compared to 20% of women.

Income and lack of money is another cause for concern (21%), with both men and women feeling equally stressed. On the other hand, women’s level of stress around family (the third area reported as bringing most stress daily) are much higher 22% versus 15% for men.

The findings vary considerably depending on age. Those between 25 and 44 are the most stressed (29%) about their job, but still 21% of people between 55 and 64 maintain this feeling. Only for over 65 the number drops drastically to 9%. On the other hand, family becomes a concern particularly for those over 65 with 26% of them reporting to feel stressed about this area, compared to 19 percent of those between 35 and 54, and 15% of people aged 25 to 34.

Geographically, lack of money is the most shared cause of stress with 26% in Africa and 25% in the Americas and APAC. Europe is most concerned about health and life changes, while 14% in the MENA region are stressed by wars around the world, and 12% about their families.

Vilma Scarpino, President of WIN International Association, said:

The results of the 2024 Annual WIN World Survey show interesting, different nuances about health and mental health globally. The economic scenario and the political landscape are inevitably affecting people’s lives and stress levels, so it’s more important than ever to learn and be aware of people’s sentiments, and we’re here to do that.

(WIN)

17 April 2024

Source: https://winmr.com/stress-levels-rise-around-the-world/

 

839-844-43-27/Polls

Earth Day 2024: Changing Attitudes And Actions Towards Climate Change, A 33 Country Survey

In our annual Earth Day report, we explore how attitudes to climate change are changing, who is responsible for leading the fight against the climate emergency, and what actions people are willing to take.

Key findings include:

  • Fewer people think they will be failing future generations by not taking action on climate change, down 13 percentage points since 2021. Over the same period, fewer say businesses and governments will be failing their stakeholders and citizens by not combatting climate change.  
  • Young men (Millennial and Gen Z) are more fatalistic than women and older men on the topic of the climate crisis. A third of Millennial and Gen Z men say it is too late to do anything about climate change, compared to less than one in five Baby Boomer men and women.  
  • Two-thirds across 33 countries think countries like the US, GB, France, Canada and Germany should pay more to solve climate change. At the same time, France and Canada have seen an increase in people feeling they are being asked to sacrifice too much to fight climate change, with both countries now more likely to say this is the case than not.  
  • People do want to help in limiting the effects of climate change. In all countries people are more likely to say if everyone made small changes in their everyday lives this could have a big impact. However, they lack the knowledge on how to do this. They overestimate the importance of recycling and underestimate the impact of acts like not having a car or going vegan. Having easy access to information on steps to take in fighting the climate crisis is viewed as of one biggest ways in getting people to take more action. 

(Ipsos Global)

19 April 2024

Source: https://www.ipsos.com/en/earth-day-2024-changing-attitudes-and-actions-towards-climate-change