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BUSINESS
& POLITICS IN THE WORLD GLOBAL
OPINION REPORT NO. 834-838 Week: February 12 – March 17,
2024 Presentation: March 22, 2024 Kamikawa
Rises In Polls As Most Suitable For Next Prime Minister In Japan Conditions
Inside Fukushima Melted Nuclear Reactors Still Unclear 13 Years After
Disaster Struck For
Many In China, The Economy Feels Like It Is In Recession Iranians’
Turnout In The 2024 Elections 6
In 10 Nigerians Follow The English Premier League Namibian
Youth Demand That Government Make Job Creation A Top Priority Mozambicans
Give Government Poor Marks On Its Efforts To Promote Equal Rights For Women Sudanese
See Pollution As A Serious Problem Requiring Greater Government Attention Amid
Economic Gloom, Few Malawians Hold Hope For Improvement Sunak’s
Pledges: Two Thirds Say Government Is Doing Badly Voters
Want Cost-Of-Living Assistance More Than Increased Funding For Public
Services War
Crimes In Gaza: Most Britons Think Both Sides Are Likely Guilty 2
In 5 People Don’t Think British Railways Provide Good Value For Money To
Passengers Princess
Kate Is The Nation’s Favourite Royal 56
Percent Of Swiss People Spend Time Doing Care Work Work
Environment And Social Networks: The Spaces With The Most Discrimination For
Women Americans'
Views of Both Israel, Palestinian Authority Down Americans
Say More Women Officeholders Would Benefit Country Most
Students Prefer Colleges That Restrict Guns On Campus Nearly
Three-Quarters Of Americans Say It Would Be ‘Too Risky’ To Give Presidents
More Power Online
Opt-In Polls Can Produce Misleading Results, Especially For Young People And
Hispanic Adults State
Of The Union 2024: Where Americans Stand On The Economy, Immigration And
Other Key Issues 8
in 10 Americans Say Religion Is Losing Influence In Public Life ANZ-Roy
Morgan Consumer Confidence Up 1.2pts To 82.2 Education:
Africans From 39 Countries Expect Greater Government Efforts Ukraine
War Two Years On – The View From Western Europe (7 Countries) And The US WIN
World Survey – Gender Equality – A Survey In 39 Countries Across The Globe How
People In 24 Countries Think Democracy Can Improve INTRODUCTORY NOTE 834-838-43-35/Commentary: WIN World Survey – Gender Equality – A
Survey In 39 Countries Across The Globe
Significant gender
equality gap still exists for women
HEADLINES
– IRELAND Women
are more likely to state lack of opportunities and pay disparity.
Violence
incidence gradually increases in Ireland
More
work needed in achieving gender equality in sports, politics, and the arts
Sinead
Mooney, Managing Director of RED C Research, said: “Such
little positive movement is hugely disappointing and suggests there is much
to do. The stark reality of the disparity in simply feeling safe
walking alone at night between men and women should warrant us to sit up and
take action on key issues. As a society at large we need to strive for
better for all our citizens.” HEADLINES
WORLD
Vilma
Scarpino, President of WIN International Association, said: (REDC Research) 08 March 2024 Source:
https://www.redcresearch.ie/win-world-survey-gender-equality/ SUMMARY OF POLLS ASIA (Japan) Kamikawa Rises In Polls As Most
Suitable For Next Prime Minister In Japan Foreign Minister Yoko
Kamikawa, the object of recent sexist remarks, has suddenly gained public
support as the person most suitable for next prime minister. A February
survey by the Mainichi Shimbun showed Kamikawa in second place behind former
LDP Secretary-General Shigeru Ishiba. Surveys conducted by TV Asahi, Tokyo
Broadcasting System Television and Fuji News Network Inc. placed Kamikawa in
third place, behind Ishiba and former environment minister Shinjiro Koizumi
but ahead of digital minister Taro Kono. (Asahi Shimbun) 28 February 2024 Conditions
Inside Fukushima Melted Nuclear Reactors Still Unclear 13 Years After
Disaster Struck Japan on Monday marked 13
years since a massive earthquake and tsunami hit the country’s northern
coasts. Nearly 20,000 people died, whole towns were wiped out and the
Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant was destroyed, creating deep fears of
radiation that linger today. As the nation observes the anniversary, AP
explains what is happening now at the plant and in neighboring areas. Annual
surveys show the majority of evacuees have no intention of returning home,
citing lack of jobs, schools and lost communities, as well as radiation
concerns. (Asahi Shimbun) 11 March 2024 (China) For Many In China, The Economy
Feels Like It Is In Recession China grew 5.2% last year,
more than most major economies. But for the unemployed graduates, the
property owners who feel poorer as their flats are losing value, and the
workers earning less than the year before, the world’s second-largest economy
feels like it’s shrinking. Those who find jobs earn less than they expect as
businesses cut costs in response to poor domestic demand. Recruiter Zhaopin
found the average salary employers offered in China’s 38 biggest cities fell
by 1.3% year-on-year in the fourth quarter. (Asahi Shimbun) 11 March 2024 (India) Approval Rating Of PM Narendra
Modi Soars To 75% In Feb 2024 – A 10% Jump From Sept 2023 Wave: Ipsos
Indiabus Survey Prime Minister, Mr. Narendra Modi has achieved an approval
rating of 75% in Feb 2024 from the earlier 65% in September 2023 (last wave),
in handling of his job as the prime minister of the country, according to
the Ipsos IndiaBus PM Approval Rating
Survey. The survey shows the areas where the Modi government
has performed well are primarily in the areas of education system, sanitation
and cleanliness and healthcare system. In the other areas, the govt has
passed and not flunked. The scores given by the respondents were, pollution
and environment (56%), poverty (45%), inflation (44%), unemployment (43%) and
corruption (42%). (Ipsos India) 06 March 2024 MENA (Iran) Iranians’ Turnout In The 2024
Elections The results of this survey
show that two days before the elections, about 74% do not want to participate
in the parliamentary elections, and 75% do not intend to participate in the
Assembly of Experts election; about 16% intend to participate in these two
elections and vote for the vetted candidates. About 2% also intend to cast
blank (or invalid) votes into the ballot boxes. Additionally, about 8% are still
undecided about participating in the parliamentary elections, and 7% are
undecided about participating in the Assembly of Experts election. (Gamaan) 01 March 2024 AFRICA (Nigeria) 6 In 10 Nigerians Follow The
English Premier League A new public opinion poll
released by NOIPolls has revealed that a significant proportion of adult
Nigerians nationwide (59 percent) follow the English Premier League. However,
further findings revealed that only a handful of adult Nigerians (8 percent) follow
the Spanish Laliga, while 2 percent mentioned they follow the Italian Serie A
and the French Ligue 1. In all, 67 percent of adult Nigerians interviewed
stated that they do watch football. (NOI Polls) 12 March 2024 (Namibia) Namibian Youth Demand That
Government Make Job Creation A Top Priority Namibia’s youth face major
challenges in a constrained economy with high unemployment. Unemployment
ranks at the top among problems that Namibian youth (aged 18-35 years) want
their government to address, followed by water supply and corruption. Namibian
youth have more education than their elders. Nearly eight in 10 youth (79%)
have secondary or post-secondary schooling, compared to 67% in the 36-55 age
group and 43% in the over-55 age group. (Afrobarometer) 23 February 2024 (Mozambique) Mozambicans Give Government
Poor Marks On Its Efforts To Promote Equal Rights For Women Women outnumber men in
Mozambique (United Nations Mozambique, 2022), but despite their
dominance in number, they still trail men on key economic, social, and
political indicators. In Mozambique, fewer women than men
have secondary schooling (30% vs. 36%), and more lack formal education
altogether (21% vs. 17%). Gender gaps persist in ownership of some key
assets, including a mobile phone (59% vs. 72%), a bank account (20% vs. 29%),
a motor vehicle (11% vs. 19%), and a computer (9% vs. 14%). (Afrobarometer) 26 February 2024 (Sudan) Sudanese See Pollution As A
Serious Problem Requiring Greater Government Attention In Sudan, where desert
makes up more than half the land, desertification is a perennial
environmental concern, heightened by the impacts of climate change
(Desertification Facts, 2022). Citizens assign the primary responsibility for
reducing pollution and keeping communities clean to local government (33%),
national government (28%), and ordinary citizens (27%). About half (49%) of
Sudanese say the benefits of natural resource extraction, such as jobs and
revenue, outweigh negative impacts such as pollution. (Afrobarometer) 05 March 2024 (Malawi) Amid Economic Gloom, Few
Malawians Hold Hope For Improvement The socio-economic
landscape of Malawi presents a complex web of opportunities and challenges.
Nearly nine out of 10 Malawians (89%) say the country is heading “in the
wrong direction,” a 39-percentage-point increase since 2012. Almost four in
10 Malawians (37%) experienced high levels of lived poverty during the past
year, while another 38% experienced moderate lived poverty. (Afrobarometer) 08 March 2024 WEST EUROPE (UK) Sunak’s Pledges: Two Thirds Say
Government Is Doing Badly One of Rishi Sunak’s five pledges as prime minister was that he would
get the economy growing. However, following the news last week that the UK has slipped into recession, a new YouGov survey – conducted on 19-20
February – shows that the public overwhelmingly think the government is
failing at each promise they made at the beginning of 2023. When it comes to
Sunak’s pledge to encourage economic growth, 69% of Britons think the
government is doing badly and only 17% think they are doing well. As it
happens, YouGov had initially asked this question on 14-15 February, shortly
before the recession news broke. It seems that the poor economic forecast
shifted public opinion slightly – in that previous poll 21% had thought the
government was doing well and 63% badly. (YouGov UK) 20 February 2024 Voters Want Cost-Of-Living
Assistance More Than Increased Funding For Public Services In February, two separate YouGov polls showed that most Britons would
prefer the government prioritise public spending over tax cuts. Given this,
many commentators queried why the government seemed determined to press ahead
with tax cuts, given the public’s clearly-stated preference for fixing public
services. A variation of that same question which more explicitly notes that
the cuts would be on taxes that “everyday people pay” closes the gap
considerably, with 41% supporting tax cuts in this scenario, although this is
still lower than the 47% who would prefer to put money towards public
services. (YouGov UK) 05 March 2024 War
Crimes In Gaza: Most Britons Think Both Sides Are Likely Guilty A new YouGov survey shows
that most Britons likewise believe that both Israel and Hamas have committed
war crimes in the latest round of conflict. Two thirds of Britons (67%)
believe it is likely that Israel has committed war crimes during their attack
on Gaza since October. Just 10% think this is unlikely. Opinion is split
among those who say they sympathise more with Israel in the conflict, with
46% thinking it likely that their side has committed war crimes to 43% who
consider it unlikely. (YouGov UK) 13 March 2024 2
In 5 People Don’t Think British Railways Provide Good Value For Money To
Passengers New Ipsos poll finds 42%
of people surveyed disagreed that the railways provided good value for money
to passengers, compared to 19% who agreed. Over a third disagreed that rail
services can be relied on (37%, 22% agreed) and that rail services are well run
(36%, 20% agreed). Two in five (40%) disagreed that rail companies and
organisations in Great Britain deliver infrastructure projects quickly and
effectively, compared to 17% who agreed. Almost a third (32%) of Britons said
that they hardly ever experience disruptions or alterations when they travel
by train. This compares to less than a quarter (23%) of Britons who travel by
trains at least once a week. (Ipsos MORI) 13 March 2024 Princess Kate Is The Nation’s
Favourite Royal New polling from Ipsos
explores attitudes to the Royal Family. Fieldwork was carried out 29th
February to 3rd March, before recent stories about Kate’s Mother’s Day
photograph. When asked which Royal they like the most the Princess of
Wales (Kate Middleton) is chosen by 38%, narrowly ahead of her husband the
Prince of Wales (Prince William). Their figures are broadly unchanged since
our last poll on the subject in April 2023. (Ipsos MORI) 13 March 2024 Half Of Britons Think There
Should Be A By-Election In Ashfield Following Lee Anderson’s Defection To
Reform UK New polling from Ipsos,
taken 11th-12th March, 2024 explores public attitudes to Lee Anderson’s
decision to leave the Conservative Party and join Reform UK. When asked if
they are familiar with a prompted list of leading British politicians, just
three in ten (30%) say they are familiar with Lee Anderson. This is more than
his new party leader Richard Tice (16%) but considerably less than other
leading politicians such as Rishi Sunak (84%), David Cameron (80%), Keir
Starmer (76%) and Nigel Farage (73%). (Ipsos MORI) 13 March 2024 (Switzerland) 56 Percent Of Swiss People
Spend Time Doing Care Work In this current YouGov
survey on the occasion of International Women's Day, we asked the Swiss
population how care work, but also household duties, are distributed between
women and men. Men say more often than women that they spend around an hour a
day doing care work (22 vs. 16 percent). A similar picture emerges for
around two hours of care work per day: men 22 percent vs. women 14
percent. However, the proportion of women increases with the duration of
the care work carried out: almost one in five women in Switzerland (19
percent) say they spend more than three hours a day doing care
work. Among men, 6 percent say this. (YouGov Germany) 06 March 2024 (Spain) Work Environment And Social
Networks: The Spaces With The Most Discrimination For Women In Spain, a growing sense
of identification with feminism positions the country, for the second
consecutive year, as the most feminist in Europe. With 55% of the
population defining themselves as feminist, there is a clear trend towards
the adoption of these values, although a gender gap in this identification
still persists. While 61% of Spanish women declare themselves feminists,
the figure among men still does not reach a majority (48%), although it
increases three points compared to the previous year. The trend is
particularly notable among younger people, with 63% of those under 35 identifying with the movement ,
compared to 50% of those between 35 and 49 and 52% of those over 50. (Ipsos Spain) 04 March 2024 NORTH AMERICA (USA) Americans' Views of Both
Israel, Palestinian Authority Down Americans’ opinions of
both Israel and the Palestinian Authority have worsened in the past year amid
escalating tensions between the two sides since last fall. Fifty-eight
percent of Americans, down from 68% last year, have a “very” or “mostly
favorable” view of Israel. This is the lowest favorable rating for Israel in
over two decades. At the same time, positive opinions of the Palestinian
Authority have dropped from 26% to 18%, the lowest since 2015. (Gallup) 04 March 2024 Americans Say More Women
Officeholders Would Benefit Country The current proportion of
Americans saying more female officeholders would benefit the country is the
same as in Gallup’s initial measurement in 1999, although it is lower than a
63% reading from 2014. Fifty-seven percent of U.S. adults believe the country
would be governed better if more women were in political office, more than
double the percentage who think it would be governed worse (22%). Another 21%
volunteer that it makes no difference or have no opinion. (Gallup) 08 March 2024 Most Students Prefer Colleges
That Restrict Guns On Campus In the wake of recent gun
violence on college campuses in Virginia, Michigan, North Carolina and
Nevada, as well as a major legal victory for gun rights advocates in NYSRPA v. Bruen, about eight in 10
current and prospective college students say a college’s policies related to
firearms on campus are at least somewhat important in their decision to
enroll or remain enrolled. One in three currently enrolled associate and
bachelor’s degree students who attend at least half of their courses on
campus say they worry “a great deal” or “a fair amount” about gun violence on
their own campus. (Gallup) 14 March 2024 Nearly Three-Quarters Of
Americans Say It Would Be ‘Too Risky’ To Give Presidents More Power Nearly three-quarters of
Americans (74%) say it would be too
risky to give presidents more power to deal directly with
many of the nation’s problems. Americans’ views about expanding presidential
power have been mostly unchanged from
recent years, according to a January Pew Research Center
survey of 5,140 adults. While Republican Donald Trump was president, large majorities of Democrats said it would be
too risky to expand presidential power. At least eight-in-ten
Democrats said this across Trump’s time in office. Republicans were far less
likely to say this during the Trump presidency. (PEW) 28 February 2024 Online
Opt-In Polls Can Produce Misleading Results, Especially For Young People And
Hispanic Adults Online opt-in polls have
become increasingly popular. And for some purposes, such as election
polling, they can perform similarly to more traditional survey
approaches. There is evidence, however, that the online environment in which
they operate is somewhat unstable. Studies have shown that bogus respondents
can cause opt-in surveys to overestimate rare attitudes and behaviors, such
as ingesting bleach to protect against COVID-19, belief in conspiracies like Pizzagate or support for political violence. (PEW) 05 March 2024 State
Of The Union 2024: Where Americans Stand On The Economy, Immigration And
Other Key Issues Nearly three-quarters of
Americans (73%) say strengthening the economy should be a top priority for
Biden and Congress this year, according to a Center survey conducted in January. Of the 20 policy goals we asked about,
no other issue stands out – as has been the case for the past two years. This assessment comes amid ongoing worries about high prices. Majorities of U.S. adults say they are very concerned about the price of food and consumer
goods (72%) and the cost of housing (64%). (PEW) 07 March 2024 8
in 10 Americans Say Religion Is Losing Influence In Public Life A new Pew Research Center
survey finds that 80% of U.S. adults say religion’s role in American life is
shrinking – a percentage that’s as high as it’s ever been in our surveys.
Most Americans who say religion’s influence is shrinking are not happy about it.
Overall, 49% of U.S. adults say both that religion is losing influence and that this is a bad thing.
An additional 8% of U.S. adults think religion’s influence is growing and
that this is a good thing. Together, a combined 57% of U.S adults – a clear
majority – express a positive view of religion’s influence on American life. (PEW) 15 March 2024 (Canada) In Gaza-Israel Conflict,
Sympathies Now Shared Equally Between Both Sides After Shift In Canadian
Opinion As the war between Israel
and Hamas in Gaza drags on, new data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute
finds Canadians’ sympathies shifting. At the outset of the conflict, there
was a 10-point gap between Canadians who said their sympathies were mostly
with the Israelis (28%) and those whose sympathies were more with the
Palestinians (18%). Now, the number of Canadians saying they sympathize with
one side or the other has drawn near-even. One-third (33%) say their
sympathies are “about equal” between both sides. (Angus Reid Institute) 12 February 2024 Five-Year Decline: Canadians
Growing More Critical Of Their Provincial Governments As Unresolved Issues
Linger A majority in every
province in the country believe their provincial government is performing
poorly on health care as premiers and health ministers struggle to address
the myriad problems facing Canada’s health systems. But health care isn’t the
only issue provincial governments have struggled with for a half-decade.
Tenured governments in B.C., Ontario and Quebec have seen increased criticism
over handling of key issues such as housing affordability and education while
the new government in Manitoba deals with lingering concerns about public
safety. (Angus Reid Institute) 13 March 2024 AUSTRALIA ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Up 1.2pts To
82.2 ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer
Confidence was up 1.2 points to 82.2 this week. The index has now spent a
record 58 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is now 5.2
points above the same week a year ago, March 6-12, 2023 (77.0), but 1 point
below the 2024 weekly average of 83.2. Now under a fifth of Australians, 19%
(unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time
last year compared to a majority of 53% (down 2ppts) that say their families
are ‘worse off’. (Roy Morgan) 12 March 2024 Roy Morgan Business Confidence Increased Rapidly
In February, Up 8.3pts To 101.5 – The First Positive Result Above 100 For
Over A Year A large spur for the
monthly increase was businesses growing increasingly confident in February
that the next 12 months is a ‘good time to invest’ in growing the business –
now a majority of 51.3% of businesses (up 7.4ppts on a month ago) – and the
highest for this indicator for nearly two years since April 2022. Businesses
have also grown more confident about the performance of the Australian
economy with 47.6% (up 9.3ppts) saying they expect ‘good times’ for the
economy over the next year and 43.2% (up 5ppts) saying they expect ‘good
times’ for the economy over the next five years – the highest for both of
these indicators for over a year since January 2023. (Roy Morgan) 15 March 2024 MULTICOUNTRY STUDIES Education: Africans From 39 Countries Expect
Greater Government Efforts On average across 39
African countries, more than half (55%) of adults have secondary (37%) or
post-secondary (18%) education, while 27% have primary schooling and 18% have
no formal education. Younger Africans have more education than their elders.
About two-thirds (65%) of respondents aged 18-35 have had at least some
secondary education, compared to 52%, 44%, and 35% of the progressively older
cohorts. Women are less likely than men to have secondary or post-secondary
education (51% vs. 59%) and more likely to lack formal education altogether
(20% vs. 16%). (NOI Polls) 15 February 2024 Source:
https://www.noi-polls.com/post/education-africans-expect-greater-government-efforts-on-education Ukraine
War Two Years On – The View From Western Europe (7 Countries) And The US As we approach the second
anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the military situation in the
beleaguered nation looks much the same now as it did a year ago. Resolve is
strongest in Sweden, Denmark and the UK, where 50-57% think the approach should
be to support Ukraine until Russia is beaten. More than four in ten Americans
(43%) say the same. In each of these four countries, those willing to stand
by Ukraine significantly outnumber those who want to encourage a negotiated
peace, at 21-27%. (YouGov UK) 22 February 2024 Millennials And Gen Z Less In Favour Of Gender
Equality Than Older Generations; A Survey Across 31 Nations This is one of the key
findings in a new global study carried out in 31 countries by Ipsos in
collaboration with the Global Institute for Women’s Leadership at King’s
College London for International Women’s Day. Gen Z and Millennials are more
likely to think agree that a man who stays home to look after his children is
less of a man (25%, 27% respectively) than Gen X (20%) and Baby Boomers
(11%). But within the generations there are differences in opinion. There is
a 20-percentage point difference between Gen Z men (60%) and Gen Z women
(40%) when it comes to thinking women’s equality discriminates against men. (Ipsos Global) 04 March 2024 Source:
https://www.ipsos.com/en/millennials-and-gen-z-less-favour-gender-equality-older-generations WIN
World Survey – Gender Equality – A Survey In 39 Countries Across The Globe 46% of women globally do
not feel confident or safe when walking alone at night in their neighborhood.
Numbers are even more critical in certain geographical areas: 64% of women in
the Americas report not feeling safe, 47% in Africa and 45% in Europe. However,
in the MENA region only 28% of women share the same feeling.Zooming into
specific countries, Latin America regions are perceived as the least safe:
83% of women in Chile don’t feel safe walking alone, followed by 81% in
Mexico and 75% in Ecuador. (REDC Research) 08 March 2024 Source:
https://www.redcresearch.ie/win-world-survey-gender-equality/ How People In 24 Countries Think Democracy Can
Improve Dissatisfaction with
democracy is high and, in many places, rising. But how do people think democracy in
their country could be improved? To answer this, Pew Research Center asked
over 30,000 people in 24 countries what they think would help make democracy
work better where they live. People highlight problems with their country’s
economy, the need for jobs, a desire for safety and security, and problems
with roads, electricity, health care and more – pointing to the precursors
to democracy,
or the things they need in order for it to function at all. (PEW) 13 March 2024 ASIA
834-838-43-01/Polls Kamikawa Rises In Polls As Most Suitable For Next Prime
Minister In Japan
Foreign Minister Yoko
Kamikawa, the object of recent sexist remarks, has suddenly gained public
support as the person most suitable for next prime minister. But securing the backing
for such a move is a different story within the ruling Liberal Democratic
Party. In “most suitable” polls,
Kamikawa has placed ahead of party heavyweights, including Prime Minister
Fumio Kishida and LDP Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi. A February survey by the
Mainichi Shimbun showed Kamikawa in second place behind former LDP
Secretary-General Shigeru Ishiba. Surveys conducted by TV
Asahi, Tokyo Broadcasting System Television and Fuji News Network Inc. placed
Kamikawa in third place, behind Ishiba and former environment minister
Shinjiro Koizumi but ahead of digital minister Taro Kono. Ishiba, Koizumi and Kono
had long dominated the top ranks of such polls in recent years. The three are
known as the “Koishikawa coalition” after part of the kanji characters in
each of their surnames. Some political observers
saw the most recent polls as a sign that “a corner of the Koishikawa
coalition has collapsed.” Kamikawa’s public
popularity may have been pushed by the factional slush fund scandal that has
rocked the LDP. She could “bring a sense
of renewal for the LDP, now that it is branded as a failure,” a senior LDP
Upper House member said. Kamikawa, 70, is a
seven-term Lower House member who belongs to the Kishida faction. After working at
Mitsubishi Research Institute Inc., she completed a master’s program at the
Harvard Kennedy School and joined the policy team of Max Baucus, a U.S.
Democratic Party senator from Montana. She decided to become a
politician because she felt that Japanese “politics must take a more
proactive role in addressing international issues.” Her first attempt at
national politics was in the 1996 Lower House election. She ran as an
independent in the Shizuoka No. 1 electoral district but was unsuccessful. In the 2000 Lower House
election, the LDP endorsed a rival candidate, so she ran as an independent.
She won, and was later reinstated to the LDP. Kamikawa has been
appointed justice minister three times. In 2018, during her second
stint in the post, she signed the execution papers for all 13 death-row
inmates convicted in the murderous crime spree of the Aum Shinrikyo cult. In September 2023,
Kamikawa became Japan’s first female foreign minister in 19 years. Since
then, her media exposure has rapidly widened. She has visited more than
20 countries, including the United States, Ukraine and Israel. Whenever she
meets with dignitaries, she advocates the “Women, Peace and Security (WPS)”
policy framework that reflects women’s perspectives in conflict prevention and
peacebuilding. She usually goes home carrying materials from work. A senior ministry official
described Kamikawa as “just so serious.” Kamikawa was chosen for
the foreign minister post largely because LDP Vice President Taro Aso
recommended her to Kishida. Aso considers Motegi as a
major candidate for prime minister, but Aso also highly evaluates Kamikawa’s
administrative skills. Motegi’s own faction will
be dissolved because of the slush fund scandal, and his presence has weakened
in the party. There is a growing view
within the LDP that “Kamikawa is Aso’s new ‘post-Kishida’ card.” Aso, in a January speech,
described her as a “new star” and praised her skills. But the 83-year-old
former prime minister also made inappropriate comments about Kamikawa’s age
and appearance. He even got her name wrong. The sexist remarks drew
widespread criticism, but Kamikawa refrained from criticizing Aso. “I am aware that there are
many different opinions, and I appreciate any and all feedback,” she said. If Kamikawa decides to run
for the LDP presidency, she will likely need the endorsement of at least Aso,
who heads the second-largest faction in the party. Kamikawa may even have
trouble gaining support from her own faction. The Kishida faction is
currently chaired by Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi. Hayashi, 63, is younger
than Kamikawa, but he is considered “senior” to her within the party. There are strong calls
within the party for Hayashi to be nominated for the “post-Kishida” position. A former Cabinet member in
the LDP expressed a cold view of Kamikawa: “All she does is read memos of
prepared answers. She is just an ‘easy-to-use person’ in Aso’s eyes.” Kamikawa has a reputation
in the party as being incapable of rallying people behind her. “Kamikawa has no friends,”
a veteran lawmaker in the Kishida faction said. According to a source
close to Kamikawa, the foreign minister herself is perplexed by the sudden
attention she is receiving as a candidate for next prime minister. At a news conference on
Feb. 27, she was asked if she had eyes on the prime minister’s post. She did not give a direct
answer. “I approach my work as a
foreign minster with a single-minded devotion and a determination to do my
job without looking aside. This is my honest feeling,” she said. (Asahi Shimbun) 28 February 2024 Source:
https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/15181220
834-838-43-02/Polls Conditions Inside Fukushima Melted Nuclear Reactors Still
Unclear 13 Years After Disaster Struck
Japan on Monday marked 13
years since a massive earthquake and tsunami hit the country’s northern
coasts. Nearly 20,000 people died, whole towns were wiped out and the
Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant was destroyed, creating deep fears of
radiation that linger today. As the nation observes the anniversary, AP
explains what is happening now at the plant and in neighboring areas. A magnitude 9.0 earthquake
struck on March 11, 2011, causing a tsunami that battered northern coastal
towns in Iwate, Miyagi and Fukushima prefectures. The tsunami, which topped
15 meters (50 feet) in some areas, also slammed into the nuclear plant, destroying
its power supply and fuel cooling systems, and causing meltdowns at reactors
No. 1, 2 and 3. Hydrogen explosions caused
massive radiation leaks and contamination in the area. The operator, Tokyo
Electric Power Company Holdings, says that the tsunami couldn’t have been
anticipated. Government and independent investigations and some court
decisions have said the accident was the result of human error, safety
negligence, lax oversight by regulators and collusion. Japan has since introduced
stricter safety standards and at one point shifted to a nuclear energy
phaseout. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s government reversed that policy and
has accelerated restarts of workable reactors to maintain nuclear power as a
main source of Japan’s power supply. A deadly Jan. 1 earthquake
in Japan’s northcentral region destroyed many homes and roads but didn’t
damage an idled nuclear power plant. Even so, it caused worry that
current evacuation plans that solely focus on radiation leaks could be unworkable. The nation marked a moment
of silence at 2:46 p.m. Monday, with Kishida attending a memorial in
Fukushima. About 20,000 of more than
160,000 evacuated residents across Fukushima still haven’t returned home. Decontamination work
before the Tokyo Olympics meant to showcase Fukushima’s recovery led to the
elimination of some no-go zones, but they remain in seven of 12 towns that
had been fully or partially off-limits. In Futaba, the hardest-hit
town and a co-host of the Fukushima No. 1 plant, a small area was opened in
2022. About 100 people, or 1.5% percent of the pre-disaster population, have
returned to live. The other host town, Okuma, sacrificed part of its land to
build an interim storage site for nuclear waste gathered from the
decontamination, and 6% of its former residents have returned. Annual surveys show the
majority of evacuees have no intention of returning home, citing lack of
jobs, schools and lost communities, as well as radiation concerns. Residents who have raised
radiation worries or linked it to their health problems have come under
attack for hurting Fukushima’s reputation. The disaster-hit towns,
including those in Iwate and Miyagi prefectures, have seen sharp population
drops. Fukushima Gov. Masao
Uchibori said on NHK TV that a growing number of young people want to move to
Fukushima to open businesses or help in the reconstruction, and he expressed
hope that more residents will return. Last
August, Fukushima No. 1 began discharging treated water into the
sea, and is currently releasing a fourth 7,800-ton batch of treated water. So
far, daily seawater sampling results have met safety standards. The plan has
faced protests from local fishers and neighboring countries, especially
China, which has banned Japanese seafood imports. Fukushima Daiichi has
struggled to handle the contaminated water since the 2011 meltdowns. TEPCO
says the start of the process is a milestone and removing the tanks is
crucial to make space for facilities needed as decommissioning progresses. The contaminated cooling
water is pumped up, treated and stored in about 1,000 tanks. The government
and TEPCO say the water is diluted with massive seawater before release,
making it safer than international standards. Despite earlier fears that
the water discharge would further hurt Fukushima’s hard-hit fishing industry,
they have not damaged its reputation domestically. China’s ban on Japanese
seafood, which mostly hit scallop exporters in Hokkaido, apparently prompted Japanese
consumers to eat more Fukushima seafood. Sampling and monitoring by
the International Atomic Energy Agency have also boosted confidence in local
fish. Fukushima fishing returned
to normal operations in 2021, and the local catch is now about one-fifth of
its pre-disaster level because of a decline in the fishing population and
smaller catch sizes. The government has
earmarked 10 billion yen ($680 million) to support Fukushima fisheries. The contents of the three
reactors is still largely a mystery. Little is known, for instance,
about the melted fuel’s condition or exactly where it’s located in the
reactors. Not even a spoonful of the fuel has been removed yet. About 880 tons of melted
nuclear fuel remain inside the three damaged reactors, and Japanese officials
say removing it would take 30-40 years. Experts call that timeline overly
optimistic. The amount of melted fuel is 10 times that removed from Three Mile
Island following its 1979 partial core melt. Robotic probes have
glimpsed inside the three reactors, but their investigation has been hampered
by technical glitches, high radiation and other complications. It’s crucial for officials
to understand the data from melted debris so they can make a plan to remove
it safely. TEPCO aims to get the first sample out later this year from the
least-damaged No. 2 reactor. TEPCO has been trying to
get the sample by using a robotic arm. Officials have struggled to get the
robot past the wreckage, and hope that by October they can use a simpler
device that looks like a fishing rod to get a primary sample. The fuel in the
worst-damaged No. 1 reactor mostly fell from the core to the bottom of its
primary containment vessel. Some of it penetrated and mixed with the concrete
foundation, making removal extremely difficult. In February, the plant
made its first drone flight into the primary containment vessel to
investigate the melted debris and examine how the fuel initially fell from
the core. But a second day of exploration was canceled because a data
transmission robot failed. The government has stuck
to its initial target for a completed decommissioning by 2051, but it hasn’t
defined what that means. The lack of data,
technology and plans on what to do with the radioactive melted fuel and other
nuclear waste makes it difficult to understand what’s in store for the plant
and surrounding areas when the cleanup ends, according to TEPCO’s
decommissioning company chief, Akira Ono. An overly ambitious
schedule could result in unnecessary radiation exposure for plant workers and
excess environmental damage, experts say. (Asahi Shimbun) 11 March 2024 Source:
https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/15195066
834-838-43-03/Polls For Many In China, The Economy Feels Like It Is In
Recession
The night before China’s
civil service exam, Melody Zhang anxiously paced up and down the corridor of
her dormitory, rehearsing her answers. Only when she got back to her room did
she realise she had been crying the whole time. Zhang was hoping to start
a career in state propaganda after more than 100 unsuccessful job
applications in the media industry. With a record 2.6 million people going
for 39,600 government jobs amid a youth unemployment crisis, she didn’t get
through. “We were born in the wrong
era,” said the 24-year-old graduate from China’s top Renmin University. “No one cares about their
dreams and ambitions anymore in an economic downturn. The endless job-hunting
is a torture.” A crisis of confidence in
the economy is deterring consumers from spending and businesses from hiring
and investing, in what could become a self-feeding mechanism that erodes
China’s long-term economic potential. China grew 5.2% last year,
more than most major economies. But for the unemployed graduates, the
property owners who feel poorer as their flats are losing value, and the
workers earning less than the year before, the world’s second-largest economy
feels like it’s shrinking. Zhu Tian, economics
professor at China Europe International Business School in Shanghai, says the
textbook definition of a recession - two consecutive quarters of economic
contraction - should not apply to a developing country investing roughly 40%
of its output annually, twice the level of the United States. “We’re in a recession,”
Zhu said. “If you talk to 10 people, seven will say we’ve had a bad year.” “I don’t think the
government can afford that. This cannot go on forever,” he said, urging more
stimulus measures to break out what could be a “vicious cycle” of low
confidence that will affect young people entering the job market in
particular. VANISHING
ASPIRATIONS More than one in five of
the roughly 100 million Chinese aged 16-24 were unemployed in June, the last
data point before officials suspended the series. China resumed publication
of the data on Wednesday, excluding college students from it, to put youth unemployment
at 14.9% in December. China’s Generation Z is
the most pessimistic of all age groups, surveys show. Those who find jobs earn
less than they expect as businesses cut costs in response to poor domestic
demand. Recruiter Zhaopin found the average salary employers offered in
China’s 38 biggest cities fell by 1.3% year-on-year in the fourth quarter. For an economy which
expanded roughly 60-fold in dollar terms since the 1980s, this is a
historical shift in mood. That success was achieved largely through gigantic
investments in manufacturing and infrastructure, but that model began
producing more debt than growth about a decade ago, with total borrowing now
reaching levels China struggles to service. Meanwhile, China trained
its students for high-skilled jobs in the services sector rather than factory
or construction work. Subdued household consumption and regulatory crackdowns
on the finance, tech and education industries have diminished their opportunities. Janice Zhang, 34, had
worked in the tech industry until late 2022 when she quit to handle a family
emergency, confident she could easily find a new job given her experience and
U.S. education. But Zhang only found a
social media marketing position, where she was expected to put in 15-hour
shifts, so she quit after a short while. The state of the economy
makes her feel like a “grain of sand on the beach,” unable to control her own
destiny, she said. “In China, this word
‘aspiration’ has been driving everyone, because they believed tomorrow will
be the best time. What I’m trying to conquer in my life now is, in a way,
healing the disappointment tomorrow is going to bring.” PROPERTY
CRISIS Vincent Li, the owner of a
high-end coffee shop in Shanghai, took a one-two punch that he says knocked
him out of the middle class. As Chinese cut spending,
they prefer cheaper coffee. And the two apartments he bought for 4 million
yuan ($558,612) in 2017 on the touristy Hainan island haven’t attracted any
renting or buying interest in three years. “The property market is
saturated,” Li said. In China, 96% of the
roughly 300 million urban households owned at least one apartment in 2019,
according to the latest central bank data. A third owned two, and a tenth
owned more. About 70% of household
savings are invested in property. In some cities, apartments
have lost two thirds of their value since the real estate market downturn
began in 2021, property agents said, making their owners feel less wealthy
and slash their spending. The property sector, which
accounted for roughly a quarter of economic activity at its peak, is now seen
as a key threat to China’s attempts to escape the middle-income trap. “The big risk is that the
fallout from diminishing old growth sources could become too large to contain
and inhibit new growth sources. If that happens, China could become stuck in
transition,” said Yuen Yuen Ang, Alfred Chandler Chair of Political Economy
at Johns Hopkins University. It is not just domestic
policies impacting life in China. Diplomatic tensions with the West over
Taiwan, Ukraine and the South China Sea have contributed to its first ever
foreign investment deficit. Trade bodies have raised
alarm over raids on consultancies and due diligence firms and exit bans,
among other issues. U.S. tech restrictions on
China prevent David Fincher’s consultancy in Shanghai from doing business in
leading-edge semiconductors, blocking off a key source of income. He is considering moving
overseas, fearing more diplomatic tensions or new regulatory shifts from
Beijing could make his business untenable. “You feel like a lobster
in a pot,” Fincher said. “The water gets hotter and you just kind of sit
there.” “I worry about Beijing as
much as everybody else.” (Asahi Shimbun) 11 March 2024 Source:
https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/15194612
834-838-43-04/Polls Approval Rating Of PM Narendra Modi Soars To 75% In Feb
2024 – A 10% Jump From Sept 2023 Wave: Ipsos Indiabus Survey
Prime Minister, Mr. Narendra Modi has achieved an approval
rating of 75% in Feb 2024 from the earlier 65% in September 2023 (last wave),
in handling of his job as the prime minister of the country, according to
the Ipsos IndiaBus PM Approval Rating
Survey.
Interestingly, some cities and cohorts gave Mr. Modi
exceedingly high ratings for his performance as the PM – North zone (92%),
east zone (84%) and west zone (80%); tier 1 (84%), tier 3 (80%) cities; 45+
age group (79%), 18-30 years (75%), 31-45 years (71%); SEC B (77%), Sec A
(75%), SEC C (71%); females (75%), males (74%); full time parent/ homemaker
(78%), employed part time/ full time (74%) etc. And slightly lower ratings in metros (64%), tier 2 (62%)
and self-employed (59%). And the lowest in south zone (35%). Commenting on the findings of the survey, Parijat Chakraborty, Country Service Line Leader,
Public Affairs, Corporate Reputation, ESG and CSR, Ipsos India said, “Some of the big bang initiatives like opening of
the Ram Temple in Ayodhya (92% Approval Rating in North Zone validates it),
temple in the UAE, taking a stand on global issues independent of the
influence of any western power, initiatives in space, hosting the G20 Summit
successfully in India, giving a fillip to Make in India, with major global
players choosing to manufacture in India, have all contributed to the spike
in Approval Ratings of the PM." How has the Modi
government performed in different areas? The survey shows the areas where the Modi government has
performed well are primarily in the areas of education system, sanitation and
cleanliness and healthcare system. In the other areas, the govt has passed
and not flunked. The scores given by the respondents were, pollution and
environment (56%), poverty (45%), inflation (44%), unemployment (43%) and
corruption (42%).
"The initiatives
around health, education, sanitation, gender, skill development etc. are
paying off and providing strong tailwinds, in an already positive
environment," added Chakraborty. (Ipsos India) 06 March 2024 MENA
834-838-43-05/Polls Iranians’ Turnout In The 2024 Elections
The results of this survey
show that two days before the elections, about 74% do not want to participate
in the parliamentary elections, and 75% do not intend to participate in the
Assembly of Experts election; about 16% intend to participate in these two
elections and vote for the vetted candidates. About 2% also intend to cast
blank (or invalid) votes into the ballot boxes. Additionally, about 8% are
still undecided about participating in the parliamentary elections, and 7%
are undecided about participating in the Assembly of Experts election. Those who do not want to
vote or are still undecided were asked, “If you will not vote in the
elections, what is the “main reason” for your abstention?” 59% stated
“ opposition to the overall system of the Islamic Republic” as their
reason for not voting; also, 20% “the lack of free and effective elections in
the Islamic Republic,” 14% “ To protest against the poor performance of
the previous parliament,” and just over 1% “the disqualification of my
preferred candidates in these elections” were mentioned as the reasons for
not participating in the elections. Those who want to vote or
are still undecided were asked, “If you do vote in the elections, what is
your main motivation for voting?” 58% stated “electing competent
representatives, supporting the Islamic Republic and the Supreme Leader, and
disappointing the enemies” as their motivation for voting; also, 22%
“political participation, exercising the right to vote, and preserving the
republican element of the Islamic Republic” were identified as their primary
motivation for voting. On the other hand, 13% stated they vote “out of
compulsion” or “to have a stamp on my ID card.” Considering that the
target population of GAMAAN’s surveys only includes literate individuals
(i.e., about 90% of the adult population) and considering that voter turnout
is usually slightly higher among illiterate individuals than the average
population, it can be estimated that voter turnout will be between 25% to
30%. (Gamaan) 01 March 2024 Source:
https://gamaan.org/2024/03/01/iranians-turnout-in-the-2024-elections/ AFRICA
834-838-43-06/Polls 6 In 10 Nigerians Follow The English Premier League
A new public opinion poll
released by NOIPolls has revealed that a significant proportion of adult
Nigerians nationwide (59 percent) follow the English Premier League. However,
further findings revealed that only a handful of adult Nigerians (8 percent) follow
the Spanish Laliga, while 2 percent mentioned they follow the Italian Serie A
and the French Ligue 1. In all, 67 percent of adult Nigerians interviewed
stated that they do watch football. In terms of support, for
those who follow the English Premier League, Chelsea FC (28 percent) has the
highest proportion of respondents who support the team and interestingly,
more female respondents (32 percent) expressed support for Chelsea than male
(25 percent). This is followed by Manchester United (23 percent) and Arsenal
(21 percent). In terms of winning, a higher proportion of respondents
(22 percent) have predicted that Liverpool FC would win the 2023/2024 English
Premier League season. This tipping cannot be unconnected to the clubs’
outstanding performance in the present season as well as being on top of the
league table at the time of the poll having amassed 63 points from 27
matches. This is closely followed by Manchester City (21 percent) and Arsenal
(18 percent). Additional findings
revealed that most adult Nigerians (86 percent) followed the African Cup of
Nations which was hosted by Cote D’Ivoire. Interestingly, a vast majority (92
percent) predicted that Nigeria would lift the trophy at the time this poll
was conducted. In contrast, only a handful of respondents predicted that Cote
d’Ivoire (1 percent) or South Africa (1 percent) would win the Africa
Nation’s Cup. Only 34 percent of
respondents say they follow the Nigerian Premier League and patriotism (45
Percent) came up tops as the reason why respondents follow the league.
However, 66 percent of respondents say they do not follow the Nigerian
Premier League. Some of the reasons include boring matches (31 percent), not
finding time out of busy schedules to watch the matches (24 percent), matches
not up to standard and not transmitting live matches both tied at 6 percent.
Others cited were Poor organization, corrupt officiating, and low publicity
(5 percent). To gain more followership in the league, some respondents
suggested that the league should be more entertaining (12 percent), create
more awareness (10 percent), and use quality players amongst other reasons. Further findings revealed
that amongst those who follow the Nigerian premier league, 27 percent support
Kano Pillars, Enyimba FC (14 percent), and Enugu Rangers (8 percent). Also, a
higher proportion of respondents (22 percent) tipped Kano Pillars to win the
Nigerian Premier League. While 17 percent stated that Enyimba FC would win
the league, 7 percent tipped Enugu Rangers to win the league. Similarly, more
findings showed a significant proportion of adult Nigerians interviewed (42
percent) support their club because it is the club of their state of origin
while 38 percent stated they support their club because they play good
football. These are some of the key findings from the Football Poll conducted in the week
commencing February 1st, 2024. Background Football is a game in
which two opposing teams of 11 players each defend goals at opposite ends of
a field having goal posts at each end, with points being scored chiefly by
carrying the ball across the opponent's goal line and by place-kicking or
drop-kicking the ball over the crossbar between the opponent's goal posts[1]. Modern football originated
in Britain in the 19th century[2]. Since before medieval times, “folk
football” games had been played in towns and villages according to local
customs and with a minimum of rules. Football is the world’s
most popular ball game in number of participants and spectators[3]. Simple in its principal rules and
essential equipment, the sport can be played almost anywhere, from official
football playing fields (pitches) to gymnasiums, streets, school playgrounds,
parks, or beaches. According to the Fédération Internationale de Football
Association (FIFA), the viewership of the 2018 World Cup was estimated to be
3.57 billion, close to half of the global population, while the engagement
with the 2022 World Cup was estimated to be 5 billion, with about 1.5 billion
people watching the final match[4]. The game unites people
from different cultures, races, and backgrounds as the exciting moments
thrill football enthusiasts and over time, different football leagues sprang
up. The Premier League, also affectionately known as The Premiership, is the
pride of football in the United Kingdom[5]. In February of 1992, The FA Premier
League was formed, and the first games were played in August of the same year[6]. The FA Premier League’s name was
officially changed to the Premier League in 2007[7]. The English Premiership is wildly popular
throughout the world and owes much of its success to media coverage of
football sporting events[8]. The league is also known as Barclays
Premier League since its official sponsor is Barclays Bank[9]. The Premier League’s
football season runs from August to May and each team plays a total of 38
games. Over the years, a total of 40 football clubs have participated in The
Premier League. However, of the 40 teams that have competed in The Premier
League, only a handful of the clubs have won the UK Premiership title – those
teams include Manchester United, Blackburn Rovers, Arsenal, Chelsea, and
Manchester City FC[10]. In the same vein, the
Nigeria Football Federation created the Nigeria Premier League in May 1990[11]. It was organized by the Nigeria Football
League in 1990 as a step in attaining full professionalism as the sole
regulatory body for football in Nigeria. The Nigerian Premier Football League
(NPFL) is the highest level of football club in the Nigerian football league
system. However, across ages, Enyimba has been the most successful, winning
the professional league eight times. They are followed by the crowd-pulling
Kano Pillars who won four times, while Shooting Stars, Heartland and Lobi
Stars have each won twice[12]. The Nigerian Premier
League has suffered like many others, from the financial impact and dwindling
fortunes since the late 2000s.[13] Against this background, NOIPolls
surveyed to measure the opinions of Nigerians regarding the English premier
league and the Nigerian premier league, and hereby presents its findings. Survey
Findings To ascertain Nigerian's
enthusiasm, the survey posed the first question ‘’Do you watch football?’’.
Analysis revealed that most adult Nigerians (67 percent) nationwide affirmed
they watch football. On the other hand, 33 percent of the respondents stated
otherwise.
Football Audience Respondents who affirmed
they watch football were further asked if they were following the Africa Cup
of Nations hosted by Cote D’Ivoire. Analysis revealed majority (86
percent) of Adult Nigerians who watch football answered ‘Yes’, to watching
the Africa Cup of Nations. On the contrary, a few (14 percent) said “No”.
More analysis shows that the South-West zone (91 percent) accounted for the
highest number of football loving Nigerians who followed/watched the
tournament. This is followed by North-West zone (90 percent), and South-East
(88 percent), cutting across all age brackets. The survey also revealed that
more men (92 percent) followed/watched the tournament than women (81
percent).
AFCON Followership
Interestingly, respondents
were asked their opinion on which country they think would win the Africa
Nations Cup, and the vast majority (92 percent) predicted that Nigeria would
lift the coveted trophy. However, a meager (2 percent) of adult Nigerians predicted
that Ivory Coast or South Africa would win, while 6 percent out rightly
stated that they did not know. This cuts across geo-political zones and
gender.
AFCON's Winning
Predictions Furthermore, the survey
sought to know the followership of the different football leagues among adult
Nigerians. It posed the question “Which football league do you
follow/watch?’’. Respondents were allowed to pick only one option. Findings
reveal that slightly above half ( 59 percent) of adult Nigerians who watch
football follow the English Premier League. However, 8 percent follow Spanish
Laliga, 2 percent watch/follow the Nigerian Premier League, and 2 percent the
Italian Series and the French League (1 percent) respectively. However, while 29 percent
out rightly stated that they do not follow/watch any football leagues, the
South-East and North-Central zones (72 percent each) account for the regions
with the highest proportion of respondents who follow the English Premier League.
This is followed by the South-South zone (66 percent), South-West (62
percent), North-West (57 percent), and North-East zone (38 percent) having
the lowest proportion of respondents who follow the EPL. Also, there are more
males (65 percent) than females (56 percent) who follow the EPL. The age
group (18-35) respondents (64 percent) and age group (36-60) (61 percent)
have more respondents than age group (61 and above) (48 percent) who follow
the league.
Football League
Followership
Out of the 41 percent of
the respondents who follow other football leagues or none, 80 percent stated
that they do not follow the EPL. However, 20 percent affirmed that they
follow the English Premier League with the South-South zone (23 percent)
having the highest number of respondents who disclosed this. Also, there are
more males (31 percent) than females (10 percent) who follow the EPL.
English Premier League
Followership
Respondents were further
asked the English Premier League club they mainly support, and poll findings
revealed that a good proportion of respondents (28 percent) affirm they
support Chelsea with the South-South Zone (42 percent) accounting the region
with the highest proportion of respondents who support Chelsea FC.
Interestingly, more females (32 percent) than males (25 percent) indicated
support for Chelsea FC. This is then followed by Manchester United FC (23
percent), Arsenal FC (21 percent), Manchester City FC (7 percent), Liverpool
FC (6 percent) and Tottenham FC (1 percent). On the contrary, 14 percent of
adult Nigerians stated that they do not support any club in the English
Premier League.
Support for English
Premier League When asked which Nigerian
footballer they think is the most valuable in the EPL. Findings reveal
top-picks are Alex Iwobi (17 percent), Taiwo Awoniyi (9 percent), and Michael
Oliseh (8 percent). Others are Frank Onyeka (4 percent), Kelechi Iheanacho (2
percent), Wilfred Ndidi (2 percent), Ola Aina (1 percent), and Kelvin Bassey
(1 percent). However, a large proportion of adult Nigerians interviewed (31
percent) opined no Nigerian footballer is valuable in the EPL. While quite a
good number (25 percent) out rightly stated that they do not know.
Most Valuable Nigerian
Footballer Respondents were asked
their opinion on who will win the English Premier League this season and a
good proportion (22 percent) said Liverpool will win the league. More males
(27 percent) than females (14 percent) respondents who believe Liverpool FC
will win the league. Interestingly, 21 percent predict that Manchester City
FC will lift the coveted league trophy. Other teams predicted to win the
league include Arsenal FC (18 percent), Chelsea FC (6 percent), Manchester
United FC (4 percent), Aston Villa (1 percent). However, a higher proportion
(28 percent) of adult Nigerians interviewed revealed that they do not know
which league will win the 2023/2024 season.
English Premier League
Winning Predictions On the other hand, the
poll sought to know the proportion of Nigerians who follow the Nigerian
Premier league, and the poll result reveals that only 34 percent of Nigerians
follow the Nigerian league with the North-East (41 percent) being the region
with the highest proportion of respondents who follow the league. While a
large proportion (66 percent) say they do not follow the Nigerian Premier
League. The South-West (74 percent) has the highest proportion of respondents
who do not follow the Nigerian Premier League.
Nigerian Premier League
Followership Furthermore, 34
percent who follow the Nigerian Premier League mentioned several reasons for
their choice of followership, this includes patriotism (45 percent), good
players (20 percent), general love for football (10 percent) amongst other
reasons stated. On the flip side, the higher proportion (66 percent) of adult
Nigerians who do not fancy the Nigerian Premier League gave their reasons and
the top mentioned are boring (31 percent), no time to watch (24 percent), not
up to standard (6 percent). Other reasons include They do not show the
matches (6 percent), poor organization and corrupt officiating (5 percent),
lack of publicity (5 percent), and Epileptic power supply (4 percent) amongst
others.
Reasons for Followership
Additionally, adult
Nigerians who follow the Nigerian Premier Leagues were asked the club they
mainly support and the poll result revealed that Kano Pillars (27 percent)
has the highest proportion of respondents who affirmed their support for the
team. This is followed by Enyimba United FC (14 percent), Enugu Rangers FC (8
percent), and Plateau United FC (3 percent), Lobi Stars (3 percent) amongst
other teams in the league.
Top supported Nigerian
Premier League Clubs
When asked the reason for
their choice, a significant proportion of respondents (42 percent ) revealed
that ‘’because it’s my state club’’. 38 percent disclosed that they love the
club because they play well, and 12 percent revealed ‘’they just like
them’’, amongst other reasons mentioned.
Reasons for Support
The survey also sought to
know the opinion of adult Nigerians on the Nigerian premier league club they
think will win the 2023/2024 season. The highest proportion ( 22 percent )
tipped Kano Pillars to win the season. Of those who predict Enyimba will win
17 percent, while 7 percent believe Enugu Rangers will lift the trophy this
season.
Nigerian Premier League
Winning Prediction
Finally, the survey sought
to know what can be done to increase followership of the Nigerian Premier
League. A higher proportion of the respondents (12 percent) suggest that the
game should be made more entertaining. Other suggestions include raising awareness
(10 percent), using good players to play good football (9 percent),
Government support (9 percent), Good sponsorship and management (8 percent),
televising on local and foreign TV stations at convenient times (8 percent),
as well as Improve electricity (7 percent).
Improving Nigerian Premier
Leagues Followership
Conclusion In conclusion, a good
proportion of Nigerians (67 percent) watch football, while 33 percent do not
fancy the game. Interestingly, findings revealed that most adult Nigerians
interviewed (86 percent) followed the Africa Cup of Nations hosted by Cote
D’Ivoire and the vast majority (92 percent) predicted that Nigeria would lift
the trophy. The poll results also revealed that a higher proportion of adult
Nigerians (59 percent) follow the English Premier League as against 34
percent who follow the Nigerian Premier League. Among respondents who
follow the English Premier League, Chelsea FC (28 percent) has the highest
supporters followed by Manchester United FC (23 percent). Nigerians (22
percent) tipped the Liverpool FC to win the 2023/2024 Premier League season.
Currently, Liverpool FC is topping the league with 57 points having won 17
games played and lost just 2 of their games. Contrarily, the
followership of the Nigerian Premier League is low (34 percent) as revealed
by the poll. Also, Kano Pillars were tipped by respondents (22 percent) to
win the Nigerian Premier League and the same Kano Pillars have the largest
followership (27 percent). Lastly, there is an urgent need for the football
administrators in the country to step up and address some of the issues that
have caused low followership and disinterestedness in the Nigerian
premiership as the importance of football as a unifying factor in the country
cannot be overemphasized. (NOI Polls) 12 March 2024 Source:
https://www.noi-polls.com/post/6in10nigeriansfollowtheenglishpremierleague
834-838-43-07/Polls Namibian Youth Demand That Government Make Job Creation A
Top Priority
Namibia’s youth face major
challenges in a constrained economy with high unemployment. The most
recent Labour Force Survey, conducted in 2018, revealed that unemployment
among the country’s youth (defined as ages 15-34 years) stood at an
astounding 46.1% (Ndjavera, 2022; Tendane, Hartman, & Alberts,
2023). On Namibia’s Independence Day last March, discontented youth
took to the streets to protest against joblessness, and political
leaders have warned repeatedly that the youth unemployment crisis could lead
to social unrest (Matthys, 2023; Petersen, 2023; New Era Live,
2023). Are policy makers paying
attention to the needs of young Namibians? The quest to address the
needs of Namibia’s youth is captured in the vision of the government’s
third National Youth Policy (2020-2030), which seeks to achieve holistic
youth development through a focus on four key thematic pillars: health
and well-being, education and skills training, employment and economic
empowerment, and political and civic participation (Ministry of Sport,
Youth & National Service, 2021; UNFPA Namibia, 2021). Government initiatives to
reduce unemployment in the country include the Namibia Youth Credit
Scheme, designed to encourage and support youth entrepreneurship through
loans to unemployed young people who do not qualify for funding through
the mainstream banking system (Ministry of Sport, Youth & National
Service, 2024). The government has also focused efforts on closing the
skills gap in the labour market through technical and vocational
education and training (Namibia Economist, 2023). The National Youth Council
has inaugurated a national task force charged with implementing
recommendations of the targeted review report on youth unemployment by
the African Peer Review Mechanism (Lucas, 2023; Simelane, 2023). The 2020 Global Youth
Development Index ranked Namibia 119th out of 181 countries when
it comes to promoting youth education, employment, health, equality and
inclusion, peace and security, and political and civic participation,
placing it ahead of its neighbours South Africa (No. 131), Eswatini
(No. 152), Zimbabwe (No. 159), Lesotho (No. 163), Angola (No. 166), and
Mozambique (No. 173) (Commonwealth Secretariat, 2021). A 2021 Afrobarometer
survey provides an on-the-ground look at the situation of youth in
Namibia. Findings show that Namibian youth (defined here as ages 18-35) have
more education than their elders but are also more likely to be
unemployed. Unemployment is by far the most important problem that
young Namibians want their government to address. Fewer than half of the
youth demographic approve of the way the prime minister, members of the
National Assembly, representatives of the National Council, and elected
regional councillors have performed their jobs. Though powerful in
number, Namibian youth are less engaged than their elders in
change-making activities such as voting, contacting leaders, and attending
community meetings. Key
findings
(Afrobarometer) 23 February 2024
834-838-43-08/Polls Mozambicans Give Government Poor Marks On Its Efforts To
Promote Equal Rights For Women
Women outnumber men in
Mozambique (United Nations Mozambique, 2022), but despite their
dominance in number, they still trail men on key economic, social, and
political indicators. On the economic front, low
levels of education and training impede women’s job prospects (UN Women
Africa, 2022). Only 3.8% of women are estimated to be active in the
formal labour market (Ryan, 2020), while 90% work in agriculture, a
sector marked by low wages and poor social security (Fórum Mulher,
2019; United Nations Mozambique, 2021). In education, gender
enrolment disparities have been significantly reduced, but the rate of
completion is much lower for girls due to heavy domestic burdens, early
pregnancy, and the high prevalence of child marriage, all of which
force a premature exit from the schooling system (USAID, 2019). More
than half (53%) of the country’s young women marry before age 18, and 17%
before age 15 (United Nations Mozambique, 2022; World Bank Group,
2023). The high incidence of
HIV/AIDS among women is also rooted in gender inequality, as women’s
economic and social disadvantages increase their vulnerability to
infection (UNAIDS, 2021). In 2022, 54,000 new infections were recorded
among women, compared to 30,000 among men (Club of Mozambique, 2023).
Women register a prevalence rate of 15.2% compared to 9.5% among men
(UNAIDS, 2021). The Mozambican government
has demonstrated a strong political commitment to gender equality,
adopting the Beijing Declaration and Platform for Action and signing
the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against
Women, the Maputo Protocol, and the Southern African Development
Community Protocol on Gender and Development (Southern African Research
and Documentation Centre, 2019). The country has made impressive
strides in ensuring women’s political representation: As of 2021, 42.4%
of seats in Parliament were held by women (UN Women, 2021). This dispatch reports on a
special survey module included in the Afrobarometer Round 9
questionnaire to explore Africans’ experiences and perceptions of gender
equality in control over assets, hiring, land ownership, and political
leadership. (For findings on gender-based violence, see Eduonoo,
2023). In Mozambique, findings
show gender gaps in educational attainment, asset ownership, and
household financial decision making. Most citizens express support for equal
rights in land ownership, but only a slim majority endorse gender
equality in hiring. And while most Mozambicans say a woman should have
the same right as a man to be elected to public office, majorities also
consider it likely that a female candidate will suffer criticism and
harassment from the community and problems with her family. Overall, a majority of
Mozambicans give their government poor marks on its efforts to promote
gender equality, but fewer than half call for greater effort. Key
findings
(Afrobarometer) 26 February 2024
834-838-43-09/Polls Sudanese See Pollution As A Serious Problem Requiring
Greater Government Attention
In Sudan, where desert
makes up more than half the land, desertification is a perennial
environmental concern, heightened by the impacts of climate change
(Desertification Facts, 2022). But there are others, ranging from air
pollution and plastics to toxic waste (United Nations Environment Programme,
2020; France24, 2022). While siltation from land
erosion threatens the country’s limited waters, desertification is
picking up speed amid increasing droughts, fuelling competition for resources
and political instability (Atit, 2023; Walender, 2023). Waste from gold
mining and sugar plants damages residents’ health; one report estimated that
450,000 tons of mercury-filled gold-mining waste have been deposited in
Nile River State (France24, 2022; Othman, 2016). The government has also
cited plastic waste as a top contributor to environmental pollution and
launched a campaign in 2018 to raise awareness of its health effects and
promote alternatives (Xinhua, 2018). This dispatch reports on a
special survey module included in the Afrobarometer Round 9
questionnaire to explore citizens’ views and experiences regarding pollution,
environmental governance, and resource extraction. Findings show that most
Sudanese consider pollution to be a major problem in their
neighbourhoods, citing pollution of water sources, human waste management,
and air pollution as the most important local environmental
issues. A majority of citizens say
the government needs to do more to limit pollution and protect the
environment, including more stringent regulation of the natural resource
extraction industry in order to lessen its negative environmental
effects. Key
findings
(Afrobarometer) 05 March 2024
834-838-43-10/Polls Amid Economic Gloom, Few Malawians Hold Hope For
Improvement
The socio-economic
landscape of Malawi presents a complex web of opportunities and
challenges. The country is rich in potential, resources, culture, and human
capital, yet its people have long grappled with poverty, unemployment,
and limited access to basic services (World Bank, 2023; Chunga &
Tsoka, 2022). Exacerbated by the
disruptive effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war,
and last year’s deadly Cyclone Freddy, the country’s economic woes are
reflected in high inflation and shortages of petrol and foreign
currency. The Malawian kwacha was devalued by 25% in May 2022 and again
by 44% in November 2023. In November, President Lazarus Chakwera
suspended all international travel for his government, including himself
(Jegwa, 2023; Al Jazeera, 2022; World Bank, 2023; African Development
Bank, 2023). The International Monetary
Fund (2023) has approved a U.S. $175 million loan that “aims to support
the authorities’ commitment to restore macroeconomic stability, build a
foundation for inclusive and sustainable growth, including to strengthen
resilience to climate-related shocks, and address weaknesses in
governance and institutions.” How do ordinary Malawians
assess their country’s persistent economic challenges? Findings from
Afrobarometer’s 2022 survey show that citizens overwhelmingly see their
government as failing on economic issues and believe that their country is
going in the wrong direction. Few are optimistic that things will
improve in the near future. Key
findings
(Afrobarometer) 08 March 2024 WEST EUROPE
834-838-43-11/Polls Sunak’s Pledges: Two Thirds Say Government Is Doing Badly
One of Rishi Sunak’s five pledges as prime minister was that he would
get the economy growing. However, following the news last week that the UK has slipped into recession, a new YouGov survey – conducted on 19-20
February – shows that the public overwhelmingly think the government is
failing at each promise they made at the beginning of 2023. When it comes to Sunak’s
pledge to encourage economic growth, 69% of Britons think the government is
doing badly and only 17% think they are doing well. As it happens, YouGov had
initially asked this question on 14-15 February, shortly before the recession
news broke. It seems that the poor economic forecast shifted public opinion
slightly – in that previous poll 21% had thought the government was doing
well and 63% badly.
This may have likewise
affected perceptions on the other economic pledges too: the proportion of
people who think the government are doing badly at reducing inflation (67%),
reducing the national debt (71%) and creating better paid job opportunities
(71%) are all four to six points higher in this most recent poll than the
were the week before. The promise that the
public are most likely to think the government are performing badly on is
cutting NHS waiting lists, with 88% saying so. This includes 64% who think
the government are doing “very badly” at the task – this compares to 36-43%
for the economic pledges. On the final pledge – to
remove small boats migrants quickly – 79% of Britons think the government is
doing badly, including 57% who think they are doing “very badly”. Just 5-6% of people say
the government is doing well at their NHS waiting list and small boat
pledges. That the government is
doing badly on its pledges is a view held across all voting and social
groups. The only exception is among 2019 Conservative voters, who are divided
on whether they are doing well (43%) or badly (45%) on reducing inflation –
on all other pledges a majority of these voters agree with the wider public
that the government are underperforming. (YouGov UK) 20 February 2024 Source:
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/48705-sunaks-pledges-two-thirds-say-government-is-doing-badly
834-838-43-12/Polls Voters Want Cost-Of-Living Assistance More Than Increased
Funding For Public Services
In February, two separate YouGov polls showed
that most Britons would prefer the government prioritise public spending over
tax cuts. Given this, many
commentators queried why the government seemed determined to press ahead with
tax cuts, given the public’s clearly-stated preference for fixing public
services. However, ahead of the 2024
Budget, new poll findings call into question this preference for putting more
money towards public services. A variation of that same
question which more explicitly notes that the cuts would be on taxes that
“everyday people pay” closes the gap considerably, with 41% supporting tax
cuts in this scenario, although this is still lower than the 47% who would
prefer to put money towards public services. However, if rather than
asking about tax cuts we instead ask about “measures to reduce the cost of
living (e.g. measures that reduce food, energy and housing bills)”, then a
remarkable shift occurs. Now, fully 64% would rather prioritise cost of
living measures, compared to only 26% who would want to put the money towards
public services.
The results show that even
those who think public services are in a ‘very’ bad state would prefer to put
any extra cash towards reducing the cost of living (53%), rather than putting
it towards improving public services (39%). This is distinctly not the case
when the issue is framed as one of tax cuts versus public spending.
While tax cuts do tend to
appeal more than public spending increases to those who are in difficult
circumstances financially (50-60%), measures to assist on the cost of living
are more popular still (77-78%). Those who say they are
comfortable financially are the most likely to support increasing spending on
public services (52-54%) rather than tax cuts (38%). But when the choice is
between cost of living assistance versus more money for public services, the well-off
join all other groups in plumping for the former (56%).
And while it’s not
surprising that those who feel that their personal tax rate is too high tend
to prefer a policy of tax cuts (60%) over increased public spending (31%),
they are even more amenable to the prospect of measures to reduce the cost of
living (76%).
Britons
say public services are in a bad state None of this is to say
that the public aren’t concerned about the state of public services in
Britain. Asked about public
services in general, a mere 14% consider them to be in good shape. By
contrast, 79% consider public services to be in a bad state, including 32%
who say they are in a “very bad” way. When asked about specific
public services, opinion differs greatly. For instance, 49% of the public
believe that fire services are in good shape. However, at the other end of
the table, only 11% see social care as functioning well, with the same number
applying for the NHS, and 13% for hospitals. Fully 86% of Britons
believe the NHS is in a bad state currently, including 51% who say it is in a
“very” bad shape.
Both Labour and
Conservative voters share a gloomy assessment of the state of public
services, with a majority seeing almost all services listed as being in a
state of disrepair.
Britons
are divided on whether they pay too much tax, but most agree taxes on lower
earners are too high Britons are split on
whether they themselves pay too much tax: 43% say they do, while 39% think
they’re paying about the right amount. There is more agreement
that lower earners are taxed too heavily. A majority of 54% believe that both
those on ‘low incomes’ and those on ‘lower-than-average incomes’ are taxed
too much. For those on average incomes there is division once again, with 39%
thinking average earners are taxed too highly, while 43% think they are taxed
appropriately. When it comes to
‘higher-than-average’ earners there is a more of a split in the opposite
direction: 37% think they are taxed too little, while 33% think they pay
about the right amount of tax (and 16% think they are taxed too highly). And for those on ‘high
incomes’, fully 62% of Britons believe them to be under-taxed, with only 16%
thinking tax rates for high earners are about right.
Again, 2019 Conservative
and Labour voters are generally in agreement when it comes to tax rates. Both
generally see those on below-average wages as being taxed too highly, and a
majority of both groups feel that those on high incomes aren’t taxed enough.
Tory voters are more likely to think that the tax rate on average earners is
about right (49%) rather than too high (37%), while Labour voters are split
41-42% on the issue.SW (YouGov UK) 05 March 2024
834-838-43-13/Polls War Crimes In Gaza: Most Britons Think Both Sides Are
Likely Guilty
Accusations of war crimes
have been levelled at both sides in the current fighting between
Israel and Hamas. Indeed, a recent statement by
the UN’s top human rights official, Volker Türk, said that “clear violations
of international humanitarian law, including possible war crimes, have been
committed by all parties”. Now a new YouGov survey
shows that most Britons likewise believe that both Israel and Hamas have
committed war crimes in the latest round of conflict. Do
Britons think Israel has committed war crimes? Two thirds of Britons
(67%) believe it is likely that Israel has committed war crimes during their
attack on Gaza since October. Just 10% think this is unlikely. Opinion is split among
those who say they sympathise more with Israel in the conflict, with 46%
thinking it likely that their side has committed war crimes to 43% who
consider it unlikely. Among those who tend to
support the Palestinians, expectations that Israel has committed war crimes
are almost universal, at 96%, while among those who say they sympathise with
both sides equally, 78% think it is likely that Israel has committed war crimes.
Do
Britons think Hamas has committed war crimes? Seven in ten Britons (72%)
think it is likely that Hamas has committed war crimes during their October
attacks on Israel and/or in the fighting in Gaza since then. Only 6% think
this is unlikely. Three quarters (74%) of
those who sympathise with the Palestinians most in the conflict believe it is
likely that Hamas has committed war crimes – although 16% disagree. Almost all of those who
are more on Israel’s side think it is likely that Hamas has committed war
crimes (96%), as do 87% of those who say they sympathise with both sides
equally. Combining respondents’
answers to both questions shows that 60% believe it is likely that both Israel and Hamas have
committed war crimes in the current conflict.
(YouGov UK) 13 March 2024
834-838-43-14/Polls 2 In 5 People Don’t Think British Railways Provide Good
Value For Money To Passengers
New Ipsos poll finds 42%
of people surveyed disagreed that the railways provided good value for money
to passengers, compared to 19% who agreed. Over a third disagreed that rail
services can be relied on (37%, 22% agreed) and that rail services are well run
(36%, 20% agreed). Two in five (40%) disagreed that rail companies and
organisations in Great Britain deliver infrastructure projects quickly and
effectively, compared to 17% who agreed. Disruptions
to rail journeys The public were asked
about how often they tend to experience a disruption or alteration to their
train journeys. Over half said they experience disruptions or alterations
most (13%) or sometimes (42%) when they travel. However, those who travel by
train at least once a week, are more likely to say they experience
disruptions or alterations when they travel, with 21% saying they do most of
the time and half (50%) saying they do sometimes when they travel by rail. Almost a third (32%) of
Britons said that they hardly ever experience disruptions or alterations when
they travel by train. This compares to less than a quarter (23%) of Britons
who travel by trains at least once a week.
The public were then asked
whether they had made any changes to their travel plans due to concerns about
disruptions and whether services would run. Almost half (49%) agreed that they
had delayed making decisions about whether to travel by rail due to concern
about whether services would run, while 27% disagreed. 45% agreed that they had
avoided rail travel altogether and travelled by other means, due to concerns
over whether particular services would run, compared to 30% who disagreed
with this. 42% agreed that they had decided not to travel by rail in the last
12 months due to concerns about the reliability of services, compared to a
third (32%) who disagreed. However again there are differences by frequency
of train use, with more frequent rail users less likely to have changed their
travel plans, and less frequent train users more likely to have delayed
decision-making, or avoided rail and travelled another way, in the last 12
months.
Quality
of Britain's rail services The public were more
likely to rate the quality of rail services as poor (40%) than good (31%),
with 22% saying rail services in Britain are neither good nor poor. However, perceptions
change when analysing by frequency of rail use. Over half of rail users who
travel by train at least once a week (55%) rate the quality of rail services
in Britain as good, compared to 22% who rate them as poor. Yet among those
who travel by rail every 6 months to a year, 45% of these rail users rate the
quality of rail services in Britain as poor, compared to 31% who rate them as
good.
When asked to consider
which factors contribute towards the quality of rail services in Britain,
almost seven in ten (69%) said that decision making by train operators have
contributed a great deal/ fair amount. This was followed by 65% who said that
it was train operators making excessive profits, and 64% who said train
workers asking for better working conditions. Just over half said that rising
interest rates/ the cost of living in general (56%), the Conservative party’s
transport policies in government (53%) and extreme weather causing damage to
rail lines (52%) are contributing to the quality of rail services in Britain
today. Just under half said that remote working (49%) and previous
governments’ policies on transport (47%) are contributing towards the quality
of rail services. 36% said that the UK leaving the European Union is
contributing towards the quality of rail services in Britain, compared to 47%
who said that it was not. On the quality of
Britain’s rail services, few expect them to get better in the next 12 months.
16% expect this to improve across Britain, and 12% across their local area.
This compares to 38% who expect rail services in Great Britain to stay the
same, and 37% expecting them to get worse. Likewise, almost half (48%) expect
the quality of rail services in their local area to stay the same, with 30%
saying they expect them to get worse.
Lizzie
Copp, Head of Transport and Infrastructure at Public Affairs, Ipsos said
of the findings: The
survey findings highlight the scale and impact of disruption felt by rail
users in the last year. Over half say they tend to experience disruption at
least sometimes, and nearly as many say they have delayed journey decisions,
decided to travel in another way or decided not to travel altogether.
Infrequent rail users are even more likely than frequent rail users to say
they’ve changed their rail journeys in some way, and to hold negative
perceptions of the quality of rail services. This finding, in conjunction
with the public’s pessimism that the country’s rail services will get better
over the next 12 months, highlight the challenge for the rail sector in
boosting train use across Britain. (Ipsos MORI) 13 March 2024
834-838-43-15/Polls Princess Kate Is The Nation’s Favourite Royal
New polling from Ipsos
explores attitudes to the Royal Family. Fieldwork was carried out 29th
February to 3rd March, before recent stories about Kate’s Mother’s Day
photograph. Who
is Britain’s favourite Royal? When asked which Royal
they like the most the Princess of Wales (Kate Middleton) is chosen by 38%,
narrowly ahead of her husband the Prince of Wales (Prince William). Their
figures are broadly unchanged since our last poll on the subject in April
2023. The
Princess of Wales remains the most liked member of the Royal Family, followed
by Prince William Which of the following
members of the Royal Family, if any, do you like the most? Ipsos Chart: The Princess
of Wales remains the most liked member of the Royal Family, followed by
Prince William - March 2024 The Princess of Wales (Kate Middleton) 38% The
Prince of Wales (Prince William) 36% Any of the King's grandchildren 27% The
Princess Royal, Princess Anne 26% King Charles III 23% The Queen Consort
(Camilla Parker Bowles) 12% The Duke of Sussex (Prince Harry) 11% The Duke of
Edinburgh (Prince Edward) 10% The Duchess of Sussex (Meghan Markle) 7%
Princess Beatrice 6% Princess Eugenie 5% The Duke of York (Prince Andrew) 2%
Base: 1,085 Online British adults aged 18-75, 29 February
– 3 March 2024 Source: IpsosGet the dataEmbedDownload imageCreated with Datawrapper
Ipsos
Director of Politics Keiran Pedley said of the
findings: There
has obviously been quite a lot of interest in Kate in recent days. This isn’t
surprising given she is the nation’s most popular Royal, a picture we have
seen consistently in recent years. She is particularly popular with older
Britons – as is her husband Prince William – but so are most Royals.
Reflecting, as we know, that the Royals’ main challenge is that they are much
less popular with younger age groups than older ones. (Ipsos MORI) 13 March 2024 Source:
https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/princess-kate-is-the-nations-favourite-royal
834-838-43-16/Polls Half Of Britons Think There Should Be A By-Election In
Ashfield Following Lee Anderson’s Defection To Reform UK
New polling from Ipsos,
taken 11th-12th March, 2024 explores public attitudes to Lee Anderson’s
decision to leave the Conservative Party and join Reform UK. When asked if they are
familiar with a prompted list of leading British politicians, just three in
ten (30%) say they are familiar with Lee Anderson. This is more than his new
party leader Richard Tice (16%) but considerably less than other leading
politicians such as Rishi Sunak (84%), David Cameron (80%), Keir Starmer
(76%) and Nigel Farage (73%).
Impact
of Anderson defection Overall, a third of
Britons (33%) think Lee Anderson’s defection to Reform UK will have a
negative impact on the Conservative Party. 12% say it will have a positive
impact and 42% say it will make no difference. Meanwhile, 31% think Mr
Anderson’s defection will have a positive impact on Reform UK, 15% say
negative and 39% say it will make no difference. Almost half of 2019
Conservative voters (46%) think it will have a positive impact on Reform UK. What
should happen next? When asked to choose,
almost half of Britons (49%) say there should be a by-election as soon as
possible in Lee Anderson’s Ashfield constituency as he was elected as an MP
for another party. Nearly one in four (23%) say there is no need for a
by-election because there will be a General Election between now and January
2025 latest. The remaining 28% have no preference or say they don’t
know.
Ipsos
Director of Politics Keiran Pedley said of the findings: Despite
Mr Anderson already saying there will not be a by-election in Ashfield, a
significant number of the public think there should be. On the bigger
picture, it is hard to be sure what impact his decision to join Reform UK
will have. Lee Anderson is not particularly well known and the absence of a
set piece by-election victory, with the coverage that would draw, may mean
the news cycle moves on quickly. Unless, of course, there are further
defections to come. (Ipsos MORI) 13 March 2024
834-838-43-17/Polls 56 Percent Of Swiss People Spend Time Doing Care Work
In this current YouGov
survey on the occasion of International Women's Day, we asked the Swiss
population how care work, but also household duties, are distributed between
women and men. Women
and men do care work equally, but women take more time Men say more often than
women that they spend around an hour a day doing care work (22 vs. 16
percent). A similar picture emerges for around two hours of care work
per day: men 22 percent vs. women 14 percent. However, the proportion of
women increases with the duration of the care work carried out: almost one in
five women in Switzerland (19 percent) say they spend more than three hours a
day doing care work. Among men, 6 percent say this.
In the neighboring country
of Germany, the total number of respondents stated that they generally do not
spend any time doing care work (51 percent vs. 36 percent of the Swiss). Child
care is still more of a woman's responsibility, and care is more balanced 38 percent of Swiss women
say that they are usually responsible for child care in their
household. Among men, 22 percent say this. Multiple answers were
possible for this question. The topic of childcare does not apply to 52
percent of those surveyed. 19 percent of Swiss women
say they are usually responsible for caring for an elderly or disabled
relative in their household. Among men, 17 percent say this. The
proportion is almost equal between the genders. Home care does not apply
to 63 percent. Household
tasks are more likely to be in the hands of women Regardless of care work,
activities such as cleaning or doing laundry are also part of the daily
routine in a household. When it comes to cleaning, 90 percent of all
women say they are responsible for cleaning themselves (vs. 72 percent of
men). According to their own statements, 89 percent of women are
generally responsible for laundry (vs. 58 percent of men). And shopping
is usually done by 90 percent of women (vs. 79 percent of men). Multiple
answers were also possible here.
(YouGov Germany) 06 March 2024
834-838-43-18/Polls Work Environment And Social Networks: The Spaces With The
Most Discrimination For Women
Feminism has transcended
the boundaries of social movements to become a cross-cultural influence,
reshaping conversations around gender equality, autonomy and representation
in all areas of society, from politics to entertainment. With the aim of
having a global vision of the current state of public opinion on gender
equality, Ipsos has once again carried out its study on feminism in 31
countries on the occasion of International Women's Day, which will be
celebrated on December 8. March. Main
findings:
In
Spain, a growing sense of identification with feminism positions the country,
for the second consecutive year, as the most feminist in Europe. With
55% of the population defining themselves as feminist, there is a clear trend
towards the adoption of these values, although a gender gap in this
identification still persists. While 61% of Spanish women declare
themselves feminists, the figure among men still does not reach a majority
(48%), although it increases three points compared to the previous year. The trend is particularly
notable among younger people, with 63%
of those under 35 identifying with the movement , compared to
50% of those between 35 and 49 and 52% of those over 50. Although sometimes
it is among young people where we find the most polarization in the
discourses around feminism: it is those under 35 years of age who most agree
that men who stay at home taking care of their children are less men (22%)
compared to the 9% of those over 50 years of age. In the words of Paco Camas, Director of Public Opinion Research and
Political Studies at Ipsos in Spain , “ the most feminist and the most anti-feminist
discourses coexist among the new generations in Spain. The majority of
people under 25 years of age define themselves as feminists and consider that
achieving equality is a matter for both boys and girls. Furthermore,
with clear emphasis on them: if they do not support their cause, there is
nothing to do. However, reactionary positions also spread easily among
youth, for example, in the conception of masculinity as incompatible with
domestic tasks. Who would have thought that the vindication of the
patriarchal male role of provider is twice as strong today among kids as it
is among their grandparents. It is an empirically proven trend that
young men have moved to the right in the last five years in our country,
coinciding with the political and institutional normalization of
anti-feminist discourses. “Action generates reaction and, hence, polarization ” Gender
equality is everyone's issue Half of the Spanish
population believes that the promotion of gender equality has led to
discrimination against men, an opinion more prevalent among men (55%) than
among women (44%) and particularly among those aged 35 to 49 years
(55%). Spain
is among the top countries with the greatest perception of inequality in the
workplace and social networks Although progress has been
made in gender equality, the perception of discrimination against women in
Spain persists. 41% of Spanish society
declare that women are treated worse in the work environment than men, a
perception that is also reflected on social networks by 39% ,
placing Spain among the countries with the highest perception of inequality
in Europe , only behind France (40%) and Sweden (45%). If
you have to choose, people bet on women to lead financially successful
companies Ipsos asked about a series
of business competencies to assess which of them people value leaders best
according to their gender. In general, people tend to think that male
and female business leaders are equally good in all the aspects asked about, although
it is true that in all categories
women are rated better , especially when it comes to dealing
with fairer to women, people with LGBTI+ identities and ethnic
minorities; In addition, ensuring that the company operates ethically. Although the majority (55%
global average) think that either a woman or a man can create a financially
successful company, there is a global
trend to trust men more than women to achieve this, a trend that is not
addressed. joins Spain , being among the countries where
women are most trusted (14%) in this sense, being the second European country
that gives the most support to business leaders only behind Italy (15%), with
one point of difference . In
politics, Spain is the European country most inclined towards female
leadership The political sphere
follows a similar trend to the labor sphere. The majority of the Spanish
population (57%) does not show a preference for the gender of their leaders,
although among those who do have a preference, the figure of a woman in power
is more desired (29%) than that of a man ( 13%), positioning Spain as the
European country most inclined towards female leadership. (Ipsos Spain) 04 March 2024 Source:
https://www.ipsos.com/es-es/millennials-and-gen-z-less-favour-gender-equality-older-generations NORTH AMERICA
834-838-43-19/Polls Americans' Views of Both Israel, Palestinian Authority Down
Americans’ opinions of
both Israel and the Palestinian Authority have worsened in the past year amid
escalating tensions between the two sides since last fall. Fifty-eight
percent of Americans, down from 68% last year, have a “very” or “mostly
favorable” view of Israel. This is the lowest favorable rating for Israel in
over two decades. At the same time, positive opinions of the Palestinian
Authority have dropped from 26% to 18%, the lowest since 2015.
These results are from
Gallup’s Feb. 1-20 World Affairs survey. Hamas, the group that effectively
rules the Gaza Strip, and Israel have been at war since October. Hamas
fighters attacked Israel, killing hundreds of Israeli citizens and taking
others hostage. Israel responded with a major military operation in the Gaza
Strip that has left thousands of Palestinians dead. Americans have always been
more positive toward their ally Israel than toward the Palestinians. Since
Gallup first measured opinions of Israel in 1989, an average of 65% of
Americans have had favorable opinions of it. The lowest rating for Israel
during this time was 45% in 1989, during another time of heightened tensions
in the region. In contrast, an average of
19% of Americans have viewed the Palestinian Authority positively since
Gallup’s first measure in 2000. The high rating was 30% in 2021. Opinions
were above the historical averages from 2017 until this year. Young
Adults’ Opinions of Israel Plummet Young adults show the
biggest decline in ratings of Israel, dropping from 64% favorable among 18-
to 34-year-olds in 2023 to 38%. Middle-aged adults (those aged 35 to 54) show
a smaller but still significant drop, from 66% to 55%, while there has been
no meaningful change among adults aged 55 and older. As a result, the modest
age differences in ratings of Israel seen a year ago, when 10 percentage
points separated young adults' and older adults’ views, have expanded.
Older Americans are now nearly twice as likely as younger Americans to rate
Israel positively, 71% to 38%, respectively. Younger and older adults’
ratings of the Palestinian Authority haven’t changed much in the past year
but were not very positive to begin with. There has been a sharp drop in
favorability among 35- to 54-year-olds, from 30% to 15%. Middle-aged adults’
opinions are now closer to those of older Americans (11%) than younger
Americans (32%).
Young adults are far more
likely than older adults to identify as politically independent, so it
follows that independents show the biggest change in opinions of Israel over
the past year. They tie with Democrats for the biggest decline in ratings of
the Palestinian Authority. Overall, Republicans are much more positive toward
Israel, and more negative toward the Palestinian Authority, than either
independents or Democrats.
Middle
East Sympathies Largely Unchanged by War A separate question in the
poll underscores Americans’ leanings toward Israel, as it finds 51% saying they
sympathize more with the Israelis and 27% more with the Palestinians. The
remainder say they sympathize equally with both sides (4%), do not sympathize
with either side (10%) or do not have an opinion (8%). The balance of opinion is
similar to last year, when 54% were more sympathetic to the Israelis and 31%
to the Palestinians. This suggests that the recent actions by both sides have
done little to shift U.S. loyalties, even if overall opinions toward both
sides are less positive. While Americans have
always sympathized more with the Israelis, the gap has narrowed in recent
years, with last year’s 23-point gap the smallest measured to date and this
year’s nearly the same.
Prevailing political
patterns in Middle East sympathies remain in place this year. Republicans
overwhelmingly sympathize with Israel over the Palestinians, independents
tend to favor Israel, and more Democrats side with the Palestinians than
Israelis. This is the case even as Democrats give Israel much higher
favorable ratings than they give the Palestinian Authority. The Democrats’
movement has been recent; until 2022, Democrats were more likely to sympathize with Israel. Among age groups, young
adults are slightly more sympathetic to the Palestinians than the Israelis
(after being equally divided last year), with the other groups sympathizing
with Israel.
More
Americans View Conflict as Critical U.S. Threat Amid the fighting between
Israel and Hamas, 52% of Americans now view the conflict as a critical threat
to U.S. vital interests. This is up sharply from 35% two years ago, the last
time Gallup asked the question, and is the highest since the initial measure
in 2004, when 58% said the conflict was a critical threat. Another 38% of Americans
believe the Middle East conflict is an important threat to U.S. vital
interests, while 8% say it is not an important threat. Most of the movement
in the past two years has occurred between the “critical threat” and
“important threat” categories.
The three major party
groups largely agree on how much of a threat the Israeli-Palestinian conflict
poses to the U.S., with 55% of Democrats, 53% of Republicans and 50% of
independents describing it as a critical threat. All groups are more inclined
to see it as a critical threat than two years ago, when 36% of Democrats, 42%
of Republicans and 30% of independents held that view. Older Americans (64%) are
far more likely than their middle-aged (38%) or younger counterparts (48%) to
perceive the conflict as a critical threat to U.S. vital interests. Two years
ago, 43% of those 55 and older, 30% of those aged 35 to 54, and 32% of 18- to
34-year-olds believed it was a critical threat. No
Consensus on Which Side U.S. Should Pressure More for a Resolution Although Americans say
they are more sympathetic to the Israelis than the Palestinians, they divide
almost evenly when asked whether the U.S. should put more pressure on the
Palestinians (39%) or Israelis (36%) to resolve the conflict. Eight percent
say the U.S. should put more pressure on both sides, 7% say it should put
pressure on neither, and 9% have no opinion. When Gallup has asked this
question before, prior to the current war, the margin in favor of putting
pressure on the Palestinians has been larger, ranging from nine to 23 points.
Majorities of young adults
(53%) and Democrats (57%) believe the U.S. should put more pressure on the
Israelis, while about half as many in each group -- 27% and 24%, respectively
-- think the U.S. should pressure the Palestinians more. Middle-aged adults and
independents are divided evenly between wanting to put more pressure on the
Israelis (37% for both groups) and the Palestinians (37% of 35- to
54-year-olds and 34% of independents). By 64% to 14%, Republicans
think the U.S. should pressure the Palestinians more than the Israelis. Older
Americans are also more inclined to want the U.S. to put more pressure on the
Israelis (49%) than the Palestinians (27%). Americans
Less Optimistic About Peace, Still Favor Two-State Solution In February 2023, several
months before the Oct. 7 Hamas attack, Americans were divided evenly on
whether Israel and the Arab nations would ever be able to settle their
differences and live in peace. Americans are somewhat less optimistic this
year -- 42% expect there to be peace, and 53% do not. Americans have been much
more pessimistic about Middle East peace in the past than they are now. For
example, in 2006, a record-low 27% thought peace in the region was possible.
The U.S. and other nations
have called for the creation of an independent Palestinian state as a means
of settling Israeli-Palestinian differences. A slim majority of Americans,
53%, continue to favor the establishment of an independent Palestinian state,
while 34% are opposed. The current figures are
essentially unchanged from last year and generally similar to what Gallup has
measured since 2019. Before that, Americans were more likely to favor than
oppose an independent Palestinian state, but support was generally below the majority
level, with higher percentages not expressing an opinion either way. At no point have more
Americans opposed than favored a Palestinian state; the closest division was
three points in 2017.
There are vast political
differences on this matter -- 74% of Democrats, 55% of independents and 26%
of Republicans are in favor of creating an independent Palestinian state. A
majority of Republicans, 59%, oppose the idea. Republicans have been more likely
to oppose than favor the establishment of a Palestinian state since 2012. Bottom
Line The war between Israel and
Hamas has made Americans less positive toward both sides. While Americans’
underlying pro-Israeli sympathies have not changed since the war began, they
are now divided over which side the U.S. should pressure more to end the conflict.
Americans were also largely divided on Israel’s actions shortly after the fighting began. These findings underscore
the policy challenges the conflict is creating for the Biden administration.
Those challenges are made more difficult by President Joe Biden’s fellow
Democrats tending to side with the Palestinians more than the Israelis and
wanting the U.S. to exert more pressure on its traditional ally. Further underscoring the
difficulty for Biden are young adults’ much less positive views toward
Israel. To the extent Biden’s efforts to end the conflict are seen as
favoring Israel too much, it could cost him politically with this key
constituency of the Democratic Party, one that will be crucial to his winning
reelection. (Gallup) 04 March 2024 Source:
https://news.gallup.com/poll/611375/americans-views-israel-palestinian-authority-down.aspx
834-838-43-20/Polls Americans Say More Women Officeholders Would Benefit
Country
Fifty-seven percent of
U.S. adults believe the country would be governed better if more women were
in political office, more than double the percentage who think it would be
governed worse (22%). Another 21% volunteer that it makes no difference or
have no opinion. The current proportion of
Americans saying more female officeholders would benefit the country is the
same as in Gallup’s initial measurement in 1999, although it is lower than a
63% reading from 2014. Meanwhile, since 1999, the
share of Americans thinking more women in government would make things worse has increased by eight
percentage points, from 14% to 22%, while the proportion saying it would make
no difference has declined by the same amount.
The latest results are
based on a Gallup poll conducted Feb. 2-22. While women’s
representation in government still doesn’t approach their roughly 50% share
of the U.S. adult population, it is at record highs across most levels of
government. Women currently represent
between a quarter and a third of elected leaders at all levels of government
in the U.S., including 29% in the U.S. House of Representatives, 25% in the
U.S. Senate, 24% of state governors, 33% of state legislators, 34% of large-city
mayors and 32% of municipal officeholders. Additionally, Kamala Harris is
serving as the nation’s first female vice president, and four of the nine
U.S. Supreme Court justices are women. Gender
Gap in Positive Views About Women’s Leadership Widens Women have consistently
exceeded men in believing the country would benefit from having more women in
office, but the gender gap has increased because women have become slightly
more positive about women’s influence, while men have become less so. In 1999, 62% of women
versus 51% of men thought the country would be better off with more women
officeholders -- an 11-point difference. Today, those figures are 68% and
46%, respectively -- a 22-point difference.
Attitudes have changed
even more starkly among partisans, with Democrats becoming substantially more
likely to think the country would be better off with more women in office --
rising from about two-thirds saying this in 1999 and 2000 to more than 80% in
2019 and 2024. At the same time, after
registering just under 50% from 1999 to 2014, Republicans’ belief that women
officeholders would benefit the nation fell to 21% in 2019 and remains
depressed at 32% today. This also helps explain the gender trends, as men are
more likely than women to be Republican. Throughout the trend, more
than half of political independents have said the country would be better off
with more women in office, although today’s 54% is down from the high point
of 65% in 2014.
Republicans today are more
inclined to say the country would be worse off with more women in government
(43%) than to say it would be better off. This is similar to their views in
February 2019 but a switch from 1999 to 2014, when more thought women would
improve than worsen government. The shift in partisans’
views between 2014 and 2019 spans several events that may explain why
Democrats grew more likely to see women in politics as a benefit, while
Republicans became less convinced. This includes Hillary Clinton’s candidacy
as the 2016 Democratic presidential nominee; a large number of Democratic
women elected to Congress for the first time in 2018 in what was billed as
the Year of the Woman; and
Nancy Pelosi’s return as U.S. House speaker in 2019. Republicans’ latest
responses could partly reflect their preference in the 2024 Republican
primaries, which had narrowed to Donald Trump and Nikki Haley at the time of
the survey. For the future of women in
politics, it’s notable that the 2024 poll finds little change by age on this
question, with majorities of all age groups saying the country would be
better governed with more women in office. This includes 62% of young adults
(aged 18 to 34), as well as 56% of middle-aged and older adults. Bottom
Line U.S. election researchers
cite a variety of historical, structural and cultural reasons why women are
underrepresented in elective office. One factor working in women’s favor, and
possibly helping to explain their recent gains, is that Americans are much
more likely to believe women officeholders improve rather than worsen the way
the country is governed. However, this sentiment
will take women only so far if it’s concentrated in one political party. As
it stands, rank-and-file Democrats largely champion more women in office,
while Republicans have become skeptical. That doesn’t necessarily mean
Republicans won’t vote for female Republican candidates. But if “women” are
now synonymous with “Democrats” in Republicans' minds, it could hinder
electoral opportunities for Republican women in subtle ways. Women have a long way to
go to maximize their representation at all levels of government. What seems
clear is that it will take more women candidates from both parties to get
there. (Gallup) 08 March 2024 Source:
https://news.gallup.com/poll/611030/americans-say-women-officeholders-benefit-country.aspx
834-838-43-21/Polls Most Students Prefer Colleges That Restrict Guns On Campus
In the wake of recent gun
violence on college campuses in Virginia, Michigan, North Carolina and
Nevada, as well as a major legal victory for gun rights advocates in NYSRPA v. Bruen, about eight in 10 current
and prospective college students say a college’s policies related to firearms
on campus are at least somewhat important in their decision to enroll or
remain enrolled.
Regardless of age, gender
or race/ethnicity, campus gun policies are at least somewhat important to
more than three-quarters of current and prospective students. The largest
importance gap across subgroups is a nine-percentage-point difference between
Democrats and Republicans; however, more than three-quarters of current and
prospective Republican students say campus gun policies are important in
their enrollment decisions. The latest results are
from the Lumina Foundation-Gallup 2024 State of Higher Education Study,
conducted Oct. 9-Nov. 16, 2023, via a web survey with 14,032 current and
prospective college students. This includes 6,015 students enrolled in a
post-high school education program (certificate, associate or bachelor’s
degree), 5,012 adults not currently enrolled with some college but no degree,
and 3,005 adults who have never been enrolled in a postsecondary school or
program. Gallup surveyed all groups via an opt-in online panel. Students
prefer more restrictive gun policies by a 5-to-1 margin. Current and prospective
students who indicated these policies were at least somewhat important in
their decisions were also asked whether they would prefer schools that “had
tough restrictions on gun ownership that banned or made it hard for people to
have guns on campus” or whether they preferred a college that “had few
restrictions on gun ownership that allowed people to have guns on campus.”
Eighty-four percent of these respondents indicated they would prefer to
attend a college that banned or restricted the possession of guns.
While partisanship remains
the greatest differentiator in policy preference regarding guns, strong
majorities of Democrats, independents and Republicans who say gun policies
are important to them would rather attend a college that restricted firearms
on campus. Women and adults aged 18 to 25 are also more likely than their
peers to prefer tougher gun restrictions. One
in three current in-person students worry about gun violence on campus. For some students, campus
gun policy preference -- particularly their desire for more restrictive gun
laws on campus -- may be related to concerns that they, themselves, may be at
risk of gun violence on campus. One in three currently
enrolled associate and bachelor’s degree students who attend at least half of
their courses on campus say they worry “a great deal” or “a fair amount”
about gun violence on their own campus.
Among students who worry a
great deal about gun violence on campus, 92% say gun policies are at least
somewhat important in their enrollment decisions, compared with 80% among
students who say they do not worry about gun violence at all. That increase
in importance leads to both higher percentages of students who prefer tougher
gun restrictions as well as those who prefer fewer gun restrictions, perhaps
reflecting a split in how students believe they can best be protected -- or
protect themselves -- from potential gun violence on campus. Students who
worry more about gun violence on campus are slightly more likely to prefer
their campus have fewer gun restrictions.
Bottom
Line As gun rights advocates
continue to win legal victories regarding firearms and where individuals may
carry them, colleges and universities may soon be required to comply with
state or federal rulings that update campus gun regulations. In 2023, the
Georgia Supreme Court upheld the University of Georgia Board of Regents’
policy to allow guns on campus; one year earlier, the Montana Supreme Court
vacated a state law allowing concealed carry on Montana University System
campuses. A challenge to the University of Michigan’s campus firearms ban has
been appealed to the Michigan Supreme Court. (Gallup) 14 March 2024 Source:
https://news.gallup.com/poll/611459/students-prefer-colleges-restrict-guns-campus.aspx
834-838-43-22/Polls Nearly Three-Quarters Of Americans Say It Would Be ‘Too
Risky’ To Give Presidents More Power
Nearly three-quarters of
Americans (74%) say it would be too
risky to give presidents more power to deal directly with
many of the nation’s problems. Americans’ views about
expanding presidential power have been mostly
unchanged from recent years, according to a January Pew
Research Center survey of 5,140 adults.
We first asked this
question in 2016, during the final year of Barack Obama’s presidency. Since
then, no more than a quarter of Americans have said that many of the
country’s problems could be dealt with more effectively if presidents didn’t
need to worry so much about Congress or the courts. The survey also finds:
Views
by party
Opinions about whether it
would be too risky to give U.S. presidents more power depend in part on which
party controls the presidency. While Republican Donald
Trump was president, large majorities
of Democrats said it would be too risky to expand
presidential power. At least eight-in-ten Democrats said this across Trump’s
time in office. Republicans were far less
likely to say this during the Trump presidency. Since Biden was
elected, Republicans have become more
wary of expanding presidential power. They are now about 20
percentage points more likely to say it would be too risky to give presidents
more power than they were during Trump’s presidency. Democrats also have
changed their views, though less
dramatically than Republicans. Currently, 72% say more
presidential power would be too risky, compared with more than 80% who said
this when Trump was president. Views
by education
In both parties, college
graduates are more likely than those without a bachelor’s degree to view
giving presidents more power as too risky. Similar shares of college-educated Democrats (83%) and Republicans
(85%) are skeptical of expanding presidential power. This drops to 76% of less formally educated Republicans and 65% of
Democrats. (PEW) 28 February 2024
834-838-43-23/Polls Online Opt-In Polls Can Produce Misleading Results,
Especially For Young People And Hispanic Adults
As polling takes center
stage again this election year, understanding its strengths and weaknesses is
critical. At Pew Research Center, we’ve looked hard at the advantages and limitations of our methods. We’ve also
contributed to the survey profession’s understanding of data quality problems in polls that use online “opt-in” sampling – an approach where people are not
selected randomly but are instead recruited from a variety of online sources
like banner ads or social media. In this analysis, we’ll
show how some recent findings from an opt-in poll may have unintentionally
misled the public about the sensitive issue of Holocaust denial among young
Americans. Opt-in
polls can struggle to measure the attitudes of young people, Hispanics
Online opt-in polls have
become increasingly popular. And for some purposes, such as election
polling, they can perform similarly to more traditional survey
approaches. There is evidence,
however, that the online environment in which they operate is somewhat
unstable. In particular, several
recent studies have documented large errors in online opt-in surveys due to
the presence of so-called “bogus respondents.” These respondents do not answer
questions sincerely; instead, they attempt to complete surveys with as little
effort as possible to earn money or other rewards. Studies have shown that
bogus respondents can cause opt-in surveys to overestimate rare attitudes and
behaviors, such as ingesting bleach to protect against COVID-19, belief in conspiracies like Pizzagate or support for political violence. At Pew Research Center,
we’ve found that this type of overreporting tends to be especially
concentrated in estimates for adults under 30, as well as Hispanic adults.
Bogus respondents may be identifying this way in order to bypass screening questions that might otherwise prevent them
from receiving a reward, though the precise reasons are difficult to pin
down. Whatever the underlying cause, the result can be unreliable estimates
for those groups. For example, in a February
2022 survey experiment, we asked opt-in respondents if they were licensed to operate a class SSGN (nuclear) submarine. In the opt-in survey, 12% of adults under
30 claimed this qualification, significantly higher than the share among
older respondents. In reality, the share of Americans with this type of
submarine license rounds to 0%. The problem was even worse
for Hispanic estimates. About a quarter (24%) of opt-in cases claiming to be
Hispanic said they were licensed to operate a nuclear sub, versus 2% of
non-Hispanics. Another Pew Research
Center study comparing three online opt-in samples and three
probability-based panels had
similar findings, though on different topics. We asked respondents 16 yes/no
questions on topics ranging from smoking and hypertension to collecting
Social Security and receiving workers’ compensation. Young and/or Hispanic
opt-in respondents were significantly more likely than other respondents to
answer “yes” to 10 or more of these questions, claiming combinations of
characteristics that are virtually nonexistent in reality. Critically, on the
more rigorous probability-based surveys, very few respondents in any age
group gave the same kind of implausible answers to these questions. Recent
opt-in poll made headlines on Holocaust denial among young adults In the context of what
we’ve learned from our investigations into opt-in polls, we took particular
notice of a recent online opt-in survey that had a startling
finding about
Holocaust denial among young Americans. The survey, fielded in December 2023,
reported that 20% of U.S. adults under 30 agree with the statement, “The
Holocaust is a myth.” This alarming finding received widespread attention from the news media and on social networks. From a survey science
perspective, the finding deserved a closer look. It raised both of the red
flags in the research literature about bogus respondents: It focused on a
rare attitude (Holocaust denial), and it involved a subgroup frequently
“infiltrated” by bogus respondents (young adults). Other questions asked in
that December opt-in poll also pointed to a need for scrutiny. In the same
poll, about half of adults under 30 (48%) expressed opposition to legal
abortion. This result is dramatically at odds with rigorous polling from
multiple survey organizations that consistently finds the rate of opposition
among young adults to be much lower. In an April 2023 Pew Research Center survey, for instance, 26% of U.S. adults under 30
said abortion should be illegal in all or most cases. This was 13 points
lower than the share among older Americans (39%). Our estimate for young
adults was similar to ones from other, more recent probability-based surveys,
such as an AP-NORC survey from June 2023 (27%) and a KFF survey from November 2023 (28%). Opt-in
findings on Holocaust denial, abortion do not replicate We attempted to replicate
the opt-in poll’s findings in our own survey, fielded in mid-January 2024 on
Pew Research Center’s American Trends Panel.
Unlike the December opt-in
survey, our survey panel is recruited by mail – rather than online – using
probability-based sampling. And in fact, our findings were quite different. Rather than 20%, we found
that 3% of adults under 30 agree with the statement “The Holocaust is a
myth.” (This percentage is the same for every other age group as well.) Had
this been the original result, it is unlikely that it would have generated
the same kind of media attention on one of the most sensitive possible
topics. Likewise, our survey found
substantial differences from the December poll on support for legal abortion.
In the opt-in survey, roughly half of young adults (48%) said abortion should
always be illegal or should only be legal in special circumstances, such as
when the life of the mother is in danger. In our survey, 23% said so. These differences in
estimates for young adults are what we would expect to see – based on past
studies – if there were a large number of bogus respondents in the opt-in
poll claiming to be under the age of 30. These respondents likely were not answering the questions based
on their true opinions. How
do these findings relate to attitudes about the Middle East? We
wouldn’t have asked the question this way. Here’s why The takeaway from our
recent survey experiment is not that
Holocaust denial in the United States is nonexistent or that younger and
older Americans all have the same opinions when it comes to antisemitism or
the Middle East. For example, our survey experiment found that young adults
in the U.S. are less
likely than older ones to say the state of Israel has the right to exist.
This is broadly consistent with other rigorous polling showing that young people are
somewhat less supportive of Israel – and more supportive of Palestinians –
than older Americans. Rather, the takeaway is
that reporting on complex and sensitive matters such as these requires the
use of rigorous survey methods to avoid inadvertently misleading the public,
particularly when studying the attitudes of young people. (PEW) 05 March 2024
834-838-43-24/Polls State Of The Union 2024: Where Americans Stand On The
Economy, Immigration And Other Key Issues
President Joe Biden will
deliver his third State of the Union address on March 7. Ahead of the speech,
Americans are focused on the health of the economy and the recent surge of
migrant encounters at the U.S.-Mexico border, as well as ongoing conflicts abroad. Here’s a look at public
opinion on key issues facing the country, drawn from recent Pew Research
Center surveys of U.S. adults. Economy
remains top of mind for most Americans
Nearly three-quarters of
Americans (73%) say strengthening the economy should be a top priority for
Biden and Congress this year, according to a Center survey conducted in January. Of the 20 policy goals we asked about, no
other issue stands out – as has been the case for the past two years. This assessment comes
amid ongoing worries about high prices. Majorities of U.S. adults say they are very concerned about the price of food and consumer
goods (72%) and the cost of housing (64%). Still, views of the
economy overall have warmed a bit in the past year. Slightly more than a
quarter of Americans (28%) rate U.S. economic conditions as excellent or
good, an increase of 9 percentage points since last April. This shift is
driven largely by Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents: 44% rate the
economy positively, compared with just 13% of Republicans and GOP leaners. Despite these sharply
different assessments, majorities of both Democrats (63%) and Republicans
(84%) say strengthening the economy should be a top policy goal this year.
These shares are largely unchanged since last year. Immigration
resonates strongly with Republicans
About six-in-ten Americans
(57%) say dealing with immigration should be a top policy goal for the
president and Congress this year, a share that’s increased 18 points (from
39%) since the start of Biden’s term. This change is almost
entirely due to growing concern among Republicans: 76% now say immigration
should be a top priority, up from 39% in 2021. By comparison, the 39% of
Democrats who cite immigration as a priority has remained fairly stable since
2021. The growing number of migrant encounters at the southern border has emerged as
a key issue in the 2024 election cycle. Biden and former President Donald
Trump, who is running for the Republican presidential nomination, both visited the border on Feb. 29. Eight-in-ten U.S. adults
say the federal government is doing a bad job dealing with the large number
of migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border, including 45% who say it’s doing
a very bad job, according to our January survey. Republicans and Democrats alike fault the
federal government for its handling of the border situation – 89% and 73%,
respectively, say it’s doing a bad job. The survey also asked
Americans to react to nine potential policies that could address the situation at
the border, and found broadly positive views of several. Half or more of U.S.
adults say the following would make the situation better:
Fewer than two-in-ten say
any of these proposals would make the situation worse. Terrorism
and crime are growing concerns, particularly among Republicans
About six-in-ten U.S.
adults say defending the country from future terrorist attacks (63%) and
reducing crime (58%) should be political priorities this year. But
Republicans place more emphasis on these issues than Democrats. Republicans’ concerns
about terrorism have risen 11 points since last year – 76% now say it should
be a top policy priority, up from 65% then. By comparison, about half of
Democrats (51%) say defending against terrorism should be a priority this
year, while 55% said this last year. Concerns about crime have
risen somewhat in both parties since the start of Biden’s presidency. About
seven-in-ten Republicans (68%) say reducing crime should be a top priority
this year, up 13 points since 2021. And 47% of Democrats say the same, up 8 points
since 2021. Most
Americans see current foreign conflicts as important to U.S. interests
As Biden urges Congress to pass emergency foreign
aid, about three-quarters
of Americans see the war between Israel and Hamas (75%), the tensions between
China and Taiwan (75%), and the war between Russia and Ukraine (74%) as
somewhat or very important to U.S. national interests, according to a separate Center survey from January. Democrats and Republicans
are about equally likely to see the Israel-Hamas war and China-Taiwan
tensions as important to national interests. But Democrats are more likely
than Republicans to describe the war in Ukraine this way (81% vs. 69%). In a late 2023 survey, 48% of Republicans said the U.S. was
giving too much support to Ukraine, while just 16% of Democrats said the
same. This partisan gap has grown steadily wider since the beginning of the
war. Related: Americans’
Views of the Israel-Hamas War Republicans
and Democrats alike prioritize limiting money in politics
About six-in-ten Americans
(62%) – including similar shares of Democrats (65%) and Republicans (60%) –
say reducing the influence of money in politics should be a top policy goal
this year. Most Americans (72%) favor
spending limits for political campaigns, according to a July 2023 Center survey. Eight-in-ten also say major campaign
donors have too much influence over decisions that members of Congress make,
while 73% say lobbyists and special interest groups have too much influence. And 81% of Americans,
including majorities in both parties, rate members of Congress poorly when it
comes to keeping their personal financial interests separate from their work
as public servants. Wide
partisan gaps on climate policy
Democrats are much more
likely than Republicans to say protecting the environment (63% vs. 23%) and
dealing with climate change (59% vs. 12%) should be top policy priorities for
2024. In fact, addressing climate change ranks last on Republicans’ list of priorities
this year. Views of the Biden
administration’s current climate policies also differ sharply by party.
Eight-in-ten Democrats say the federal government is doing too little to reduce the effects of
climate change, compared with 29% of Republicans, according to a Center survey from spring 2023. Overall, a majority of
U.S. adults (67%) support prioritizing the development of renewable
energy, such as wind and
solar, over expanding the production of oil, coal and natural gas. But
Democrats are far more likely than Republicans to prefer this (90% vs. 42%).
Still, the public overall is hesitant about a full energy transition: Just
31% say the U.S. should phase out fossil fuels completely. (PEW) 07 March 2024
834-838-43-25/Polls 8 in 10 Americans Say Religion Is Losing Influence In
Public Life
A new Pew Research Center
survey finds that 80% of U.S. adults say religion’s role in American life is
shrinking – a percentage that’s as high as it’s ever been in our surveys. Most Americans who say
religion’s influence is shrinking are not happy about it. Overall, 49% of
U.S. adults say both that religion is losing influence and that this is a bad thing.
An additional 8% of U.S. adults think religion’s influence is growing and
that this is a good thing. Together, a combined 57%
of U.S adults – a clear majority – express a positive view of religion’s
influence on American life.
The survey also finds that
about half of U.S. adults say it’s “very” or “somewhat” important to them to
have a president who has strong religious beliefs, even if those beliefs are
different from their own. But relatively few Americans view either of the
leading presidential candidates as very religious: 13% of Americans say they think President Joe Biden
is very religious, and just 4% say this about former President Donald Trump. Overall, there are
widespread signs of unease with religion’s trajectory in American life. This
dissatisfaction is not just among religious Americans. Rather, many religious
and nonreligious Americans say they feel that their religious beliefs put
them at odds with mainstream culture, with the people around them and with
the other side of the political spectrum. For example:
These are among the key
findings of a new Pew Research Center survey, conducted Feb. 13-25, 2024,
among a nationally representative sample of 12,693 U.S. adults. This
report examines:
The
survey also finds wide partisan gaps on questions about the proper role for
religion in society, with Republicans more
likely than Democrats to favor religious influence in governance and public
life. For instance:
Moral
and religious qualities in a president Almost all Americans (94%)
say it is “very” or “somewhat” important to have a president who personally
lives a moral and ethical life. And a majority (64%) say it’s important to
have a president who stands up for people with their religious beliefs. About half of U.S. adults
(48%) say it is important for the president to hold strong religious beliefs.
Fewer (37%) say it’s important for the president to have the same religious beliefs as their
own. Republicans are much more
likely than Democrats to value religious qualities in a president, and
Christians are more likely than the religiously unaffiliated to do so. For
example:
Views
of Biden, Trump and their religious engagement Relatively few Americans
think of Biden or Trump as “very” religious. Indeed, even most Republicans
don’t think Trump is very religious, and even most Democrats don’t think
Biden is very religious.
Though they don’t think
Trump is very religious himself, most Republicans and people in religious
groups that tend to favor the Republican Party do think he stands up at least to
some extent for people with their religious beliefs. Two-thirds of
Republicans and independents who lean toward the GOP (67%) say Trump stands
up for people with their religious beliefs “a great deal,” “quite a bit” or
“some.” About the same share of White evangelical Protestants (69%) say this
about Trump. Similarly, 60% of
Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, as well as 73% of Jewish
Americans and 60% of Black Protestants, say Biden stands up for people with
their religious beliefs a great deal, quite a bit or some.
Overall, views of both
Trump and Biden are generally unfavorable.
Views
on trying to control religious values in the government and schools Americans are almost
equally split on whether conservative Christians have gone too far in trying
to push their religious values in the government and public schools, as well
as on whether secular liberals have gone too far in trying to keep religious
values out of these
institutions. Most religiously
unaffiliated Americans (72%) and Democrats (72%) say conservative Christians
have gone too far. And most Christians (63%) and Republicans (76%) say
secular liberals have gone too far.
Christianity’s
place in politics, and Christian nationalism In recent years,
“Christian nationalism” has received a great deal of attention as an ideology
that some critics have said could threaten American democracy.
Despite growing news
coverage of Christian nationalism – including reports of political
leaders who seem to endorse the concept – the new survey shows that there has
been no change in the share of Americans who have heard of Christian
nationalism over the past year and a half. Similarly, the new survey finds no
change in how favorably U.S. adults view Christian nationalism. Overall, 45% say they have
heard or read about Christian nationalism, including 25% who also have an
unfavorable view of it and 5% who have a favorable view of it. Meanwhile, 54%
of Americans say they haven’t heard of Christian nationalism at all. One element often
associated with Christian nationalism is the idea that church and state
should not be separated, despite the Establishment Clause in the First Amendment to the U.S.
Constitution. The survey finds that
about half of Americans (49%) say the Bible should have “a great deal” of or
“some” influence on U.S. laws, while another half (51%) say it should have
“not much” or “no influence.” And 28% of U.S. adults say the Bible should
have more influence than the will of the people if the two conflict. These
numbers have remained virtually unchanged over the past four years.
In the new survey, 16% of
U.S. adults say the government should stop enforcing the separation of church
and state. This is little changed since 2021.
In response to a separate
question, 13% of U.S. adults say the federal government should declare
Christianity the official religion of the U.S., and 44% say the government
should not declare the country a Christian nation but should promote
Christian moral values. Meanwhile, 39% say the government should not elevate
Christianity in either way.1 Overall, 3% of U.S. adults
say the Bible should have more influence on U.S. laws than the will of the
people; and that the
government should stop enforcing separation of church and state; and that Christianity should be
declared the country’s official religion. And 13% of U.S. adults endorse two
of these three statements. Roughly one-fifth of the public (22%) expresses
one of these three views that are often associated with Christian nationalism.
The majority (62%) expresses none. (PEW) 15 March 2024
834-838-43-26/Polls In Gaza-Israel Conflict, Sympathies Now Shared Equally
Between Both Sides After Shift In Canadian Opinion
As the war between Israel
and Hamas in Gaza drags on, new data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute
finds Canadians’ sympathies shifting. At the outset of the
conflict, there was a 10-point gap between Canadians who said their
sympathies were mostly with the Israelis (28%) and those whose sympathies
were more with the Palestinians (18%). Now, the number of Canadians saying
they sympathize with one side or the other has drawn near-even. One-third
(33%) say their sympathies are “about equal” between both sides. This comes amid a growing
view among Canadians that the destruction wrought by Israel’s military
response in Gaza after the Hamas terrorist attacks of Oct. 7 has been too
severe. Half of Canadians (50%) believe Israel’s response has been “too
heavy-handed”, a five-point increase from November. There is also doubt among
Canadians that Israel will be able to achieve its proclaimed goals of
eradicating Hamas and freeing the hostages. Three-in-ten (29%) believe
neither goal will be reached, more than the one-in-five (19%) who say both
goals are achievable. Concerns over the growing
Palestinian death toll in the conflict has sparked allegations of genocide
levied by South Africa in the United Nations’ highest court, the
International Court of Justice. Canadians are divided on the premise of South
Africa’s case but lean towards believing Israel is in fact committing
genocide against Palestinians (41%) than not (32%). These doubts and concerns
fuel growing support among Canadians to a see a full ceasefire between the
two sides. Half (49%) of Canadians now want a full and lasting cessation of
the conflict, while one-in-six (17%) believe if a ceasefire is called it should
only be temporary. Approaching one-in-five (18%) believe no ceasefire should
be called at this time. In November, Canadians leaned towards believing the
ceasefire should be temporary (35%) rather than permanent (30%). Prime Minister Justin
Trudeau and his government have faced criticism earlier in the conflict for
being slow to call for a ceasefire after Canada abstained from an October UN vote on the subject before supporting a later resolution in December. The government has also faced criticism
after the December ceasefire vote from Liberal MPs, who argued the later
resolution did not impose enough conditions on Hamas. As Canada walks a fine line in the
conflict, Canadians see the federal government performing more poorly than
not on a number of measures, including representing Canada internationally,
effectively communicating its position, standing up for international law,
and ensuring the country is on the right side of history.
More
Key Findings:
Part
One: Sympathies now shared evenly with both sides of conflict The conflict between
Israel and Hamas, ignited after a terror attack by the latter killed 1,200 on
Oct. 7, has entered its fifth month. The protracted struggle has cost the
lives of more than 200 Israeli soldiers and close to 28,000 Palestinians. Though the health authority in Gaza does
not differentiate between military and civilian deaths, the majority of
deaths in Gaza have been women and children. In Canada, Canadians
continue to follow the conflict closely; three-quarters are having regular
discussions about the conflict and reading coverage of it in the news (see detailed tables). In this changing environment sympathies
have moved slightly toward the Palestinian population compared to polling
done in November. Currently, the same number of Canadians say they feel more
sympathy for the Israelis (25%) and the Palestinians (23%), while the largest
group say their sympathies are apportioned equally:
To better understand the
perspectives of Canadian Muslims and Jews on this conflict, this survey
included a boosted sample of 100 Muslims and 100 Jews. Please note that
although these boosted samples provide valuable context, they are not
necessarily representative of the Muslim and Jewish population of Canada as a
whole. Sample sizes for these groups are shown unweighted in the graphs
below. Four-in-five (83%) Muslims
say their sympathies lie mostly with Palestinians in this conflict.
Seven-in-ten Jews say their sympathies lie with Israelis, but one-quarter
(27%) say either they sympathize with both sides or lean towards the
Palestinians:
Part
Two: Calls for ceasefire grow amid claims of genocide The number of Palestinians
killed, injured, or missing continues to rise, surpassing 100,000 according to most recent estimates by
the United Nations. Nearly the entire population of the Gaza strip – approaching two million people – have been displaced by the
conflict. The disproportionate burden endured by women and children has caused many in the international
community to push for a ceasefire. A temporary break in hostilities was
implemented from Nov. 24-30 last year. The proportion of
Canadians hoping for a full ceasefire has increased 19 points compared to the
period before the first temporary halt:
Majorities of past Liberal
(55%) and NDP (69%) voters believe there should be a full ceasefire. Few in
those groups believe it is not the time for a ceasefire at all. Those who
voted CPC in 2021 are more likely to say now is not the time for a ceasefire (39%),
but still lean towards wanting one (43%) whether its full (28%) or temporary
(15%):
Half
now say Israel too “heavy handed” in response to Oct. 7 attack Part of the motivation for
some Canadians to support a full ceasing of hostilities may be driven by the
view that Israel’s response has been too heavy handed. The proportion
agreeing that this is the case has increased slightly from November to
exactly half of Canadians (50%). Three-in-10 (31%) disagree that Israel’s
response has been disproportionate:
Indeed, those who agree
that Israel has gone too far in its aggression are vastly more likely to say
that a ceasefire is needed. Notably, even 36 per cent of those who disagree
that Israel has overstepped a reasonable response also agree that a ceasefire
should be negotiated:
Allegations
of genocide South Africa made
international news recently when it formally alleged that Israel is committing genocide against the Palestinian population in
Gaza in the United Nations’ International Court of Justice. The text of the
submission notes that: “…acts
and omissions” by Israel “are genocidal in character because they are
intended to bring about the destruction of a substantial part of the
Palestinian national, racial and ethnical group”. – BBC The ICJ released a
preliminary ruling that Israel must take measures to “prevent and punish direct incitement of
genocide” in the conflict.
Israel rejected the ruling, arguing that it has the right to defend itself after the Hamas
attacks on Oct. 7 started the war and that Hamas is using civilians as human
shields. Israel asserted that it does everything it can to avoid the killing
of civilians during its military actions. Asked for their own views
of this, a plurality of Canadians (41%) believe Israel is committing genocide
against Palestinians, while one-in-three (32%) disagree. Notably, those who
are following the events most closely are divided evenly on this issue:
A wide gap is found on
this issue across age and gender demographics. Those younger than 35 are most
likely to say that a genocide is taking place – young women are particularly
likely to hold this view. The one group that stands out as opposing this allegation
by a significant margin are men over the age of 54:
A majority (55%) of 2021
CPC voters say Israel is not committing a genocide against Palestinians. A
plurality (44%) of past Liberal voters and an overwhelming majority (68%) of
NDP voters disagree:
Part
Three: Assessing Canadian government response The Trudeau government’s
response to the case at the ICJ has been mixed. After the ICJ’s initial ruling, the
government stated that it would abide by the court’s ruling but that this
does not mean that it necessarily agrees with the premise of the case.
Liberal Member of Parliament Anthony Housefather called South Africa’s contention
“baseless and insulting” to Israel, while other Liberal MPs,
including Salma Zahid and Chandra Arya, urged the government to publicly support the submission. How
should Canada respond to ICJ? To this point, the line
that the government and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is walking is the one
preferred by half of Canadians (48%). This group says that Canada should not
take a public position on the ICJ case. One-in-three (33%) would prefer
Trudeau publicly support the South African position, while one-in-five would
reject it (19%). The decision to refrain
from taking a position is notably one respected by half of past Conservative
voters. That said, two-in-five (38%) among that group would reject South
Africa’s claims, while larger groups of past Liberal (40%) and New Democrats
(59%) would affirm them:
Considering Trudeau’s
response overall since the conflict began, a large group are completely
unsure or don’t know enough to gauge how it has responded. Among those who
are following the events most closely, the most common position is that
Trudeau has been siding too often with Israel (35%), though nearly as many
say he has done the same with the Palestinians (27%):
As the clock ticks down
towards the next federal election, the Liberals and Trudeau have concerns
about bleeding support from the levels it saw in 2021. The Liberals and
Trudeau have faced criticism from the National
Council of Canadian Muslims for
not doing enough to stop Israel’s assault on Gaza. In December, Muslim donors pulled support from the party because of the government’s stance on
the conflict. Past Liberal voters who
are still with the party believe the federal government has struck the right
balance in its approach to the conflict by a slim majority (52%). For those
who say they would not repeat a vote for the Liberals in an election in the near
term, there is a wider belief that the government has leaned too heavily
towards the Israeli side of the conflict.
Canadians are critical of
the government and Trudeau’s approach to the conflict so far. Majorities
believe they have done a poor or terrible job of standing up for
international laws, representing Canada, ensuring Canada is on the right side
of history and communicating what the country’s position on the conflict is
to Canadians.
For a segment of the
population, those who feel the government is striking the right balance in
its responsibilities and sympathies, these measures are viewed much more
favourably. Those who feel the government has taken one side or the other are
far more critical (see detailed tables). Though Canadian Muslims
are more critical of the federal government and Trudeau’s performance during
the conflict than Canadian Jews, neither group offers government officials
much kudos:
Canada joined 10 other
countries in ceasing funding to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency
for Palestine Refugees in the near east (UNRWA) after Israel alleged some of the agency’s staff
participated in the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas. This is viewed as the right move
by a majority of Canadians, while two-in-five (42%) want Canada to continue
funding UNRWA. Past Liberal voters lean
towards believing funding to UNRWA should continue. A majority of 2021 NDP
voters also would prefer Canada continue funding the relief agency. By a
four-to-one margin, past CPC voters see it as the right move to cut off
funding for the foreseeable future:
Part
Four: Expectations for the future Israel has resisted calls for anything more than temporary
ceasefires as it aims to completely eradicate Hamas in Gaza. Israel also wants to free all the hostages taken in the Oct. 7 attack before it ends
the war. Canadians are skeptical Israel will be able to accomplish its aims.
One-in-five (19%) believe it can eliminate Hamas in Gaza and free all the
hostages, but more (29%) believe neither is possible:
While Hamas still exists,
Canadians are concerned that peace will remain elusive in Israel. Two-thirds
(66%) believe peace is impossible as long as Hamas is still operating in
Gaza. Israel’s continued resistance to Palestinian statehood is perhaps
another missing stepping stone in the eyes of many Canadians on the path to
peace. Most (61%) believe the two-state solution is an integral part of the
peace process. This is a majority opinion among Canadian Muslims (90%) and
Jews (55%, see detailed tables).
There appears to be a
pessimism among Canadians that peace is possible at all. Indeed, among those
that Hamas’ continued operation in Gaza is a barrier to peace, only one-third
(34%) believe eliminating Hamas is an achievable goal.
(Angus Reid Institute) 12 February 2024 Source:
https://angusreid.org/israel-gaza-canada-ceasefire-trudeau-hamas/
834-838-43-27/Polls Five-Year Decline: Canadians Growing More Critical Of Their
Provincial Governments As Unresolved Issues Linger
New data from the
non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds Canadians in most provinces across the
country significantly more critical of their respective provincial
government’s performance around service delivery and issues management than
they were five years ago. ARI’s Government
Performance Index – which averages the number of provincial residents who say
their government is doing a “good job” on key issues such as health care,
inflation, housing affordability, education and more – has seen a 15-point
drop on average across the country. Saskatchewan leads the way with a score
of 42 – a mark that would have put it sixth in the country five years ago. This is driven by a
perceived lack of progress – and indeed, outright decline – by provinces on
persistent issues headlined by health care, a provincial issue of high importance
according to respondents both five years ago and today. A majority in every
province in the country believe their provincial government is performing
poorly on health care as premiers and health ministers struggle to address
the myriad problems facing Canada’s health systems. But health care isn’t the
only issue provincial governments have struggled with for a half-decade.
Tenured governments in B.C., Ontario and Quebec have seen increased criticism
over handling of key issues such as housing affordability and education while
the new government in Manitoba deals with lingering concerns about public
safety.
INDEX
Top
provincial issues Canadians’ priorities have
been clear and evident in recent years. They are concerned with the rising
cost of living and with the state of health care. These issues rank foremost
in residents’ minds in all provinces across the country. There are some variations
behind those top concerns. In B.C., Ontario, and Nova Scotia, at least
two-in-five believe housing affordability is a top issue facing their
province. Public safety is an elevated concern in Manitoba, while education
is a priority for those in Saskatchewan and Quebec, two provinces where
labour action from teachers interrupted the current school year.
Government
Performance Index Regardless of which issues
residents prioritize, there is a sense that provincial governments across the
country are struggling to address the key files of the day. The Angus Reid
Institute’s Government Performance Index is an average of the proportion of
respondents who believe their provincial government is doing a “good job” on
a variety of key issues (see detailed tables). The Saskatchewan government leads the
country on this metric at 42, while New Brunswick is at the bottom with a
score of 22. Both provinces are in an election year.
Provinces
going to the polls – B.C., Saskatchewan, New Brunswick Saskatchewan Under Premier Scott Moe
and the Saskatchewan party, the Saskatchewan government has consistently
outperformed its peers when it comes to residents’ assessments of how it is
handling key files. However, it has not been immune to the rising tide of
criticism facing all provincial governments, especially on the top issues of
health care and inflation. Five years ago, praise of
the Saskatchewan government’s performance averaged a majority level across
the issues surveyed. Today, while majorities believe Moe’s government is
performing well on the economy (52%) and energy policy (60%), there is
widespread criticism elsewhere.
A majority in Saskatchewan
say the government is doing a poor job on health care (66%), inflation (61%),
and education (62%, see detailed tables), residents’ top three concerns. Health care has been a
consistent bugaboo for half a decade, growing in prominence as issues in the
system mount. The province has made strides by hiring 1,000 nursing graduates
to help fulfill its nursing shortage, but there are lingering concerns over
health care coverage in rural areas. Criticism has also built
on the affordability file. While the province sent out $500 cheques to
residents in 2022 to help deal with the rising cost of living, critics feel
the Saskatchewan government could be doing more – such as temporarily suspending the gasoline tax, a measure taken by Alberta and Manitoba. On the plus side for Moe
and the Saskatchewan Party as it heads towards a fall election, it is viewed
as performing well on the economy, an issue that has consistently been at the
forefront for provincial residents:
New
Brunswick The ruling Progressive
Conservatives of New Brunswick enter that province’s election year in a much
weaker position than Moe and the Saskatchewan Party. Under Premier Blaine
Higgs, the government has performed worse than its peers more often than not
over the past half decade. Currently, it fares worst of all provinces
canvassed in overall performance satisfaction:
Higgs and the Progressive
Conservatives receive the most criticism from residents on their highest
priorities: health care, housing affordability and inflation. On each issue,
at least four-in-five say the government has done a poor job (see detailed tables). With an election looming, the government
has taken steps to address those priorities. In January, Higgs announced one-time payments to lower income families and
additional benefits for low-income seniors and those living on social
assistance, while also making promises about health care and addressing
housing affordability. However, it is perhaps the
persistence of the health care issue that will prove problematic for Higgs
and the Progressive Conservatives as they begin their campaign for
re-election. Five years ago, health care was the top priority, selected by
half (48%) of respondents. It is still the top priority, with three-quarters
(74%) of those in New Brunswick saying it is a high concern for them. That
comes alongside severely negative reviews of the government’s performance on
the issue – 90 per cent in the province believe New Brunswick has done a poor
job addressing it. This follows after the government released a previous plan
to fix the health-care system but has missed and moved self-imposed deadlines.
British
Columbia On the opposite coast,
Premier David Eby and the BC NDP government also face a re-election battle
this year. Overall reviews of the government’s performance are poor, but the
government has closely tracked with its peers according to the Government
Performance Index in recent years:
The New Democrat
government dates back to the 2017 election, when it first won a minority
under then Premier John Horgan. Eby took over as premier in 2022 after Horgan
retired. Throughout its tenure, there have been consistent concerns over
health care and housing, with the former rising in prominence in recent
years. While Eby is new to the
office of premier, he is a veteran of the housing file after previously
serving as the housing minister under Horgan. Eby has used the top role to
advance sweeping changes but the effects of the policies won’t likely be felt
for years. And British Columbians remain critical. Four-in-five (78%) believe
the government has done a poor job on housing affordability. Health care, too, is a
source of severe criticism for the B.C. government. Seven-in-ten (69%) say
the government has done a poor job handling health care. The government
launched a $1-billion plan to recruit health care professionals to fill
shortages in 2022, but residents appear to believe more work needs to be
done. In August last year, half of British Columbians said either they didn’t
have a family doctor or it was difficult to get an appointment with the one
they had.
Harsh
reviews of multi-term governments from residents in Quebec, Ontario Ontario Ontarians have had a poor
opinion of the performance of the government of Premier Doug Ford for much of
the period since the beginning of the pandemic of 2020. That did not stop
Ford from cruising to a second majority in the 2022 election. Ford’s government
ranks ahead of only the provincial government of New Brunswick on ARI’s
Government Performance Index:
Ford and the PC government
is seen as performing poorly on all issues by a majority of constituents with
the exception of three – energy policy, their relationship with the federal
government and disaster planning, the top concerns of five per cent or fewer
of the population (see detailed tables). At least four-in-five believe the government
is performing poorly on cost of living (81%), health care (79%) and housing
affordability (85%), the top three issues of Ontarians. Health care continues to
be a particular sore spot for Ford’s government. Opposition parties have
called for more investment in the system ahead of the province’s budget amid
accusations Ford’s government is intentionally withholding resources to
benefit private health delivery.
In a half decade, the issue has only grown in importance.
Quebec In neighbouring Quebec,
residents are less critical of their provincial government, but have become
more negative than at previous points of Premier François Legault and the
Coalition Avenir Quebec’s two-term tenure. Five years ago, during Legault’s
first majority, the government was one of the better reviewed in the country.
That gap in performance has eroded in Legault’s second term:
The spotlight has been on
education in the province in recent months after job action by teachers as they sought a new
contract halted
learning at many schools in the province. However, it has been persistent
concern for Quebecers – five years ago one-third also selected it as a top
priority. Even after resolving the strike in December last year, two-thirds
(66%) in the province believe Legault’s government is performing poorly on
the issue, one of four issues where the government receives a thumbs down on
its performance by two-thirds or more of residents (see detailed tables).
Kinew,
Smith face different priorities from prairie constituents Alberta The early years of UCP
government in Alberta brought high praise from constiuents, but acclaim
turned to criticism throughout the pandemic. Danielle Smith replacing Jason
Kenney as premier has coincided with an increase in positivity from Albertans
towards their government – it trails only Saskatchewan on ARI’s Government
Performance Index – but there is evidently much work to be done to ascend
back to the highs of the early years of Kenney’s term:
In 2019, Kenney and the
UCP rode a wave dissatisfaction with the governing NDP to a majority
government. The province had suffered through a period of lower oil
prices, hurting the economy and the provincial
budget. With higher oil prices and more royalty revenue
coming in, five years
later, concerns over the economy have been replaced by worry over health
care. Albertans are critical of government performance on that file – 61 per
cent say it is doing poorly. Smith and the UCP are in the midst of major surgery on the health-care system, but issues – dissatisfaction among health-care workers, criticism of the handling of laboratory
services, rural emergency room closures – persist.
Manitoba Further east,
dissatisfaction with provincial government performance likely played a role
in the defeat of former Premier Heather Stefanson and the Progressive
Conservative government in the 2023 Manitoba election. Stefanson was plagued
by poor reviews from Manitobans during her two-year stint in office.
Assessments have rebounded in the first months of Premier Wab Kinew and the
NDP’s government:
Prior to the pandemic,
health care was the top issue in the province. Five years later, it has been
surpassed by inflation, but has continued to grow in importance in the eyes
of Manitobans. Kinew is assessing the province’s health authorities
with the goal of improving patient experience. Manitobans remain critical of government
performance on the file, but one-in-six (15%) are withholding assessment in
these early days for the Kinew regime (see detailed tables). Public safety is another
persistent concern in the province, one that the NDP government is hoping to
address by reforming the bail system.
Criticism
of health care performance in Nova Scotia, Newfoundland and Labrador Nova
Scotia The Nova Scotia government
had received poorer than average grades from residents leading into the 2021
election, which saw power in the province transfer from a two-term Liberal
majority to a Progressive Conservative one under Premier Tim Houston. Overall,
assessments from Nova Scotians have varied little between the two regimes as
Canadians across the country have become more critical of their provincial
governments elsewhere:
Health care remains a top
concern and a source of criticism for Nova Scotians. Two-thirds (65%) say
Houston’s government is performing poorly on the issue. Wait times are high and there is a shortage of family doctors among other concerns. The
province has increased health care spending under
Houston but residents
have yet to see the fruits from the PC party’s labour to reform the
health-care system.
Newfoundland
and Labrador This is the ninth year the
provincial Liberals have been in power in Newfoundland and Labrador, making
it the longest tenured government after the Saskatchewan Party. The past five
years have seen both praise and criticism for the government’s performance
from residents, but it has mostly tracked to the Canadian average on the
Government Performance Index:
Far and away, health care
and inflation are the top two issues in Canada’s easternmost province.
Four-in-five (78%) residents say the government is performing poorly on the
former, while a similar number (80%) believe it has mishandled the latter. To
address a lack of family doctors, the province has been expanding virtual
care, but the move has been criticized for further increasing privatization in the
health-care system. The
province has struggled to fill health care vacancies while coming under fire for paying private nurses elevated hourly rates
as stop gaps.
(Angus Reid Institute) 13 March 2024 Source:
https://angusreid.org/provincial-government-performance-health-care-danielle-smith-eby-ford-legault/ AUSTRALIA
834-838-43-28/Polls ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Up 1.2pts To 82.2
ANZ-Roy
Morgan Consumer Confidence was up 1.2 points to 82.2 this week. The index has
now spent a record 58 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer
Confidence is now 5.2 points above the same week a year ago, March 6-12, 2023
(77.0), but 1 point below the 2024 weekly average of 83.2. Looking around the States,
Consumer Confidence improved sharply in Western Australia, but was virtually
unchanged in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia. Current
financial conditions
Future
financial conditions
Short-term
economic confidence
Medium-term
economic confidence
Time
to buy a major household item
ANZ
Senior Economist, Adelaide Timbrell, commented: ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian
Consumer Confidence rose slightly over the week but is still broadly trending
sideways. Confidence in future finances, which measure how many participants
believe their own finances will be better in a year from now, was at its highest
level since January 2023. It also hit above its neutral 100 level, meaning
more optimistic participants than pessimistic ones. Inflation expectations
have settled lower this year, signalling confidence in the battle against
inflation. Economic confidence fell after the weak GDP result out last week
(GDP was up 0.2% q/q or 1.5% y/y). We expect GDP to be soft for the first
half of the year before tax cuts, other fiscal stimulus and falling inflation
help household incomes and spending.
(Roy Morgan) 12 March 2024 Source:
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9435-anz-roy-morgan-consumer-confidence-march-12
834-838-43-29/Polls Roy Morgan Business Confidence Increased Rapidly In
February, Up 8.3pts To 101.5 – The First Positive Result Above 100 For Over A
Year
In
February 2024, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was 101.5 (up 8.3pts since
January 2024). This was the third consecutive monthly increase in Business
Confidence – and the first time the index has recorded a positive result
above 100 for over a year since January 2023 (106.4). A large spur for the
monthly increase was businesses growing increasingly confident in February
that the next 12 months is a ‘good time to invest’ in growing the business –
now a majority of 51.3% of businesses (up 7.4ppts on a month ago) – and the
highest for this indicator for nearly two years since April 2022. Businesses have also grown
more confident about the performance of the Australian economy with 47.6% (up
9.3ppts) saying they expect ‘good times’ for the economy over the next year
and 43.2% (up 5ppts) saying they expect ‘good times’ for the economy over the
next five years – the highest for both of these indicators for over a year
since January 2023. Business Confidence is now
9.7pts below the long-term average of 111.2, but 19.3pts higher than the
latest – ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence of 82.2
for March 4-10, 2024. Roy
Morgan Monthly Business Confidence -- Australia
Source: Roy Morgan Business Single Source, Dec 2010-Feb.
2024. Average monthly sample over the last 12 months = 1,564. Business
Confidence is up from a year ago – driven by big increases in SA and Victoria Business Confidence for
the month of February increased on January 2024 and also increased on a year
ago, up 5.7pts since February 2023. The increase in Business
Confidence from a year ago has been driven by large increases in South
Australia and Victoria with both States up by over 25 points. South Australia
now has the highest Business Confidence at 117.0, up 26.9pts on a year ago
ahead of Victoria on 108.1, also up by 26.9pts. Despite falling from a
year ago Western Australia still maintains an above average Business
Confidence at 102.7, down 31.5pts from a year ago. There were only small
changes in the other States – all with Business Confidence below average and
below the neutral level of 100. Business Confidence in New South Wales was
95.5 (down 2.6pts on a year ago) ahead of Queensland on 94.7 (up 2.7pts) and
Tasmania on 93.6 (down 6.7pts). Business
Confidence by State in February 2023 vs February 2024
Source: Roy Morgan Business Single Source, February 2023,
n=1,455, February 2024, n=1,560. Base:
Australian businesses. *Tasmanian Business Confidence is measured over three
months: December 2022 – February 2023 cf. December 2023 – February 2024. Accommodation
& Food Services most confident industry during Summer months ahead of
Education & Training while the least confident industry is Transport,
Postal & Warehousing Over the last two months a
majority of 10 industries had Business Confidence in positive territory above
the neutral level of 100: Accommodation & Food Services, Education &
Training, Community Services, Electricity, gas & water, Public Administration
& Defence, Administration & Support Services, Mining, Professional,
Scientific & Technical Services, Retail & Wholesale. By far the most confident
industry in the Summer months of January-February was Accommodation &
Food Services on 128.2, up 12.5pts on a year ago. In second place is
Education & Training on 115.4, despite a fall of 6.7pts from a year ago,
just ahead of Community Services on 112.7, up 2.5pts. Electricity, gas &
water is now the fourth most confident industry on 108.5 after a large
increase of 25.2pts on a year ago just ahead of Public Administration &
Defence on 108.2, but down 13pts. The five least confident
industries are led by Transport, Postal & Warehousing on only 61.6,
following a decline of 43.1pts on a year ago – the largest decline of any
industry. In second last place is Information Media & Telecommunications
on 73.4 after the second largest decline over the last year, down by 39.4pts. Another industry with low
Business Confidence is Property & Business Services on only 84.6, down by
20.6pts from a year ago. This industry has averaged below the neutral level
of 100 over the last two years since January 2022. Another industry with
extremely low Business Confidence is Agriculture on only 92.3, up 5.4pts from
a year ago. Confidence in the Agriculture industry has been in negative
territory below the neutral level of 100 for longer than any other industry –
averaging only 83.3 over the last 18 months since September 2022. Business
Confidence for Top 5 and Bottom 5 Industries in January & February 2024
Source: Roy Morgan Business Single Source, January &
February 2024, n=3,169. Base:
Australian businesses. Business
Confidence increased 8.3pts to 101.5 in February as businesses grew
increasingly confident about the outlook for the Australian economy over the
next year and next five years:
Michele
Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says Business Confidence jumped 8.3pts to 101.5 in
February – the first month the index has been in positive territory for over
a year as all five sub-indices moved in a positive direction during the
month: “Roy
Morgan Business Confidence was up 8.3pts to 101.5 in February to its highest
for over a year since January 2023 (106.4). There were increases across all
five sub-indices driving the increase. “The
largest increases related to views on Australia’s economic performance with
47.6% (up 9.3ppts) of businesses saying they expect ‘good times’ for the
economy over the next year and almost as many, 43.2% (up 5ppts), saying they
expect ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years. “The
most positive sentiment businesses hold continues to be about their own
performance with 51.3% (up 7.4ppts) saying the ‘next 12 months is a good time
to invest in growing the business’. In addition, a plurality of 44.8% say
they expect the business to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year
compared to only 26% that expect the business to be ‘worse off’. “The
good news for businesses in February was that inflation continued to come
down and the RBA left interest rates on hold for a second straight meeting.
The latest ABS
monthly inflation figures for the 12 months to January 2024 show inflation
unchanged at 3.4% – the lowest it has been for over two years
since November 2021 (3.2%). “Given
the plunge in the official inflation numbers over the last few months –
from 5.6% in
September 2023 to only 3.4% (December 2023 and January 2024) –
a decline of 2.2% points in only 3-4 months – the pressure has come off the
RBA for further interest rates increases. The RBA is set to meet for its next
interest rate setting meeting next week. “On
a State-by-State basis Business Confidence is in positive territory in three
States – South Australia (117.0), Victoria (108.1) and Western Australia
(102.7). Business Confidence has improved significantly in both South
Australia and Victoria over the last year. The measure is in negative
territory in the three other States of New South Wales (95.5), Queensland
(94.7) and Tasmania (93.6). “At
an industry level, it is Accommodation & Food Services which is the most
confident industry in the Summer months of January-February with a Business
Confidence rating of 128.2 and well ahead of second-placed Education &
Training (115.4) and third-placed Community Services (112.7). “Also
performing well are Electricity, gas & water on 108.5, Public
Administration & Defence on 108.2, Administration & Support Services
on 107.1, Mining on 105.8, Professional, Scientific & Technical Services
on 105.2, Retail on 102.9 and Wholesale on 101.5. “At
the other end of the scale are several industries with persistently low
Business Confidence led by Transport, Postal & Warehousing on only 61.6 –
over 10pts lower than any other industry. “Other
industries with low Business Confidence include Information Media &
Telecommunications on 73.4, Property & Business Services on 84.6 and
Agriculture on 92.3, Construction on 95.7 and Manufacturing on 96.5. All six
of these industries have had average Business Confidence over the last 12
months (since March 2023) in negative territory below the neutral level of
100. “Although
the next few months look tough for the Australian economy, there is
considerable hope of a stronger end to the year with the potential for
interest rates to be cut, inflation coming down, and the modified stage 3 tax
cuts increasing consumer’s take home pay from mid-year.” (Roy Morgan) 15 March 2024 Source:
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9493-roy-morgan-business-confidence-february-2024 MULTICOUNTRY STUDIES
834-838-43-30/Polls Education: Africans From 39
Countries Expect Greater Government Efforts
Infograph News release A majority of Africans are dissatisfied with their
government’s efforts to provide public education, the latest Afrobarometer Pan-Africa
Profile shows. Based on national surveys in 39 African countries,
the report shows that younger generations have more education than their
elders, but women, poor people, and rural residents face persistent
disadvantages in educational attainment. Among adults who had recent contact with a public
school, most say they found it easy to obtain the services they needed and
were treated with respect. But the findings also highlight the
widespread problem of out-of-school children and demands for bribes in
exchange for services. While countries vary widely in their experiences and
assessments, a majority of Africans are dissatisfied with their government’s
performance on education, though they appreciate their leaders’ efforts to
minimise disruptions to schooling due to COVID-19.
Key findings
o Younger Africans have more
education than their elders. About two-thirds (65%) of respondents aged 18-35
have had at least some secondary education, compared to 52%, 44%, and 35% of
the progressively older cohorts. o Women are less likely than men
to have secondary or post-secondary education (51% vs. 59%) and more likely
to lack formal education altogether (20% vs. 16%). o The poorest respondents are more
than three times as likely as the best-off to lack formal schooling (25% vs.
7%) and less than one-third as likely to have post-secondary qualifications
(11% vs. 37%). o The same pattern holds for rural
vs. urban residents: 27% vs. 9% lack formal schooling, and 9% vs. 28% have
post-secondary education.
o And three-fourths (74%) say that
teachers or other school officials treated them with respect (Figure 3). o But one in five (19%) say they
had to pay a bribe to get the needed services, ranging from 2% in Cabo Verde
to 50% in Liberia. Poor respondents are twice as likely as well-off citizens
to report having to pay a bribe to a teacher or school official.
Figure 1: Educational
attainment | by demographic group | 39 countries | 2021/2023
Educational Attainment for
African Countries Respondents were
asked: What is your highest level of education? Figure 2: Ease of
obtaining public school services | 39 countries |2021/2023
Accessing Services at
Public Schools Respondents who had
contact with a public school during the previous 12 months were
asked: How easy or difficult was it to obtain the services you needed
from teachers or school officials? (Respondents who had no contact with a
public school are excluded.) Figure 3: Respect from
public school officials | 39 countries | 2021/2023
Engaging Public School
Officials Respondents who had
contact with a public school during the previous 12 months were asked: In
general, when dealing with teachers and school officials, how much do you
feel that they treat you with respect? (Respondents who had no contact with a
public school are excluded.) Figure 4: Out-of-school
children a frequent problem | 39 countries | 2021/2023
Demographic representation
of Out of School Children Respondents were asked: How frequently do you think
the following things occur in your community or neighborhood: Children who
should be in school are not in school? (% who say “somewhat frequently” or
“very frequently”) Figure 5: Government
performance on education | 39 countries | 2021/2023
Government Performance (NOI Polls) 15 February 2024 Source: https://www.noi-polls.com/post/education-africans-expect-greater-government-efforts-on-education 834-838-43-31/Polls Ukraine War Two Years On – The View
From Western Europe (7 Countries) And The US
Attitudes remain largely
the same as they were at the time of the first anniversary of the invasion As we approach the second anniversary of the Russian
invasion of Ukraine, the military situation in the beleaguered nation looks
much the same now as it did a year ago. This stalemate on the battlefield is mirrored in
public opinion, with a new YouGov EuroTrack + US study (conducted in Denmark,
France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom, as well as the
United States) finding attitudes
unchanged from a year ago. Two years into the war,
should the West encourage negotiations or support Ukraine until Russia quits? Resolve is strongest in Sweden, Denmark and the UK,
where 50-57% think the approach should be to support Ukraine until Russia is
beaten. More than four in ten Americans (43%) say the same. In each of these
four countries, those willing to stand by Ukraine significantly outnumber
those who want to encourage a negotiated peace, at 21-27%. Italians tend to take the opposite view, preferring
a negotiated peace even if it left Russia still in control of parts of
Ukraine by 45% to 28%. The French, German and Spanish publics are all
closely divided.
Two years into the Ukraine
war, how much do Western Europeans and Americans care who wins? There are likewise great differences between
countries regarding how far people care who wins the war in Ukraine. Swedes
care the most, with 82% saying it matters to them “a great deal” or “a fair
amount” who wins the war, including a majority (53%) who care a great deal. In Britain, 70% say they care who wins, as do 64% in
the USA. At the other end of the scale, only 46% of Italians
say the outcome of the war matters much to them.
Relatively few in any nation surveyed actively want
Russia to win – Germans (14%), French people and Italians (both 11%) are the
most likely to say so. While most people in each country want Ukraine to
win, the numbers differ significantly, ranging from 88% in Denmark and 85% in
Sweden to 52% in Italy. In the UK that figure stands at 79% and in the US it
is 72%. Two years on, is the West
doing enough to prevent a Russian victory in Ukraine? Across all eight countries surveyed, the belief is
that the West is not providing enough support to Ukraine to help them
ultimately repel their Russian adversaries. Swedes and Spaniards are the most
likely to say so (both 64%) and Germans the least likely (44%). A majority of
Britons (57%) likewise think the West is not doing enough, as do 46% of
Americans. Americans and Germans are the most likely to think
that Ukraine is getting enough assistance, at 25-26%.
Two years into the war,
what kind of support are Western Europeans and Americans willing to provide
Ukraine? While most across the West want Ukraine to win, and
acknowledge that there is not enough support being given in order to make
that happen, that does not equate to willingness to provide additional
support. Given the option to maintain, increase, or reduce
aid to the beleaguered nation, the most common preference in each country
surveyed is for the former, at 37-50% (except in Germany, where the 30% who
want to maintain support levels are outweighed marginally by the 34% who want
to reduce them). Swedes are the most likely to want to send more
support, at 30%. In the USA, where recent attempts to get Congress to
approve further funding for Ukraine have
stalled, the public are relatively split – 23% want to send more support,
33% want to maintain current levels, and 26% want to reduce support.
When it comes to the kind of support people are
willing to back, top of the list are 'maintain the current sanctions regime'
(48-76%) and 'imposing further economic sanctions on Russian interests in
each country' (44-70%). There is also relatively strong support for sending
additional weaponry and supplies to Ukraine (46-70%), although Italy is a
notable outlier, with only 29% willing to back this move. In fact, fewer than
50% of Italians support any of the measures we tested. Taking military action in Russia gathers the least
in each country. Only between 13-33% support sending troops into Ukraine, and
19-38% back air strikes against Russian targets in the country.
Support for each measure has remained relatively
static over the last year; in none of the European countries surveyed (the US
has not been asked this question previously) has support for any measure
increased by more than six points or fallen by more than four. Nevertheless, compared to the first round of
results, shortly after the invasion in 2022, enthusiasm for several of the
measures is particularly diminished in Germany and Italy. These two countries
are typically the least likely to want to give support to Ukraine.
Two years into the Ukraine
war, which side do Europeans and Americans think has the advantage? Compared to a year ago, Europeans are now more
likely to think that Russia has the advantage in the conflict. In most
countries there has been a 9-14 point increase in this belief, except in
Italy where it has grown by a slower rate of four points. Nevertheless, the most common opinion in most
country is that neither side has the advantage, at between 39-48%. Spain is
an exception (as it was last year), with most Spaniards saying the Russians
have the advantage (58%) and only 24% believing neither side has the upper
hand. Americans likewise are more likely to say that
Russia has the upper hand (36%) than seeing a stalemate (30%). Only 3-9% think Ukraine is in the stronger position.
With the war two years
old, Europeans and Americans tend to think the conflict has at least another
year to go Unsurprisingly, given the results of the prior
question, the most common belief (49-72%) is that the war has at least
another war to run. This is up 4-12pts compared to last year in the European
countries (the US was not surveyed last year). Expectations that Ukraine will triumph over the next
twelve months stand at only 9-13%, down slightly from last year. Few also
expect that Russia will finally conquer Ukraine in the coming year, at 5-13%,
effectively unchanged since 2023.
(YouGov UK) 22 February 2024 834-838-43-32/Polls Millennials And Gen Z Less In
Favour Of Gender Equality Than Older Generations; A Survey Across 31 Nations
Despite the stereotype of Millennials and Gen Z
being “woke”, younger generations are more conservative on the issue of
gender equality. This is one of the key findings in a new global
study carried out in 31 countries by Ipsos in collaboration with the Global
Institute for Women’s Leadership at King’s College London for International
Women’s Day. Key findings:
Younger generations are
not progressive, especially young men When it comes to issue of gender equality younger
people are not always the most in favour. Over half of Gen Z and Millennials
think when it comes to giving women equal rights with men, thing have gone
far enough in my country (57% Gen Z, 60%, Millennials) compared with two in
five Baby boomers (43%). When it comes to question of whether men are being
asked to do too much to support equality, only 43% of Baby Boomers say this
is the case, while this rises to more than one in two for Millennials (57%)
and Gen Z (54%). Looking at the younger generations there is more
likely to be a difference in opinion than older generations, who are broadly
more aligned on gender equality. On the statement a man who stays home to
look after his children is less of a man, 10% of Baby Boomer women and 11% of
Baby Boomer men agree with this statement. While among Gen Zs, there is an
11-percentage point gap in opinion with 20% of Gen Z women agreeing and 31%
of Gen Z men. This gender gap between male and female Gen Zs is
greater on the issue of equality going so far it discriminates against men.
Six in ten (60%) Gen Z men agree with this statement while four in ten (40%)
of Gen Z women feel this way.
On average across the countries surveyed, nearly two
in three (65%) agree that women won’t achieve equality unless men take
actions to support women’s rights too. A similar number also note that there
are actions they can directly take to promote equality between genders (64%). However, over half (52%) believe men are being
expected to do too much to promote equality and less than two in five (39%)
identify themselves as feminists. People recognise that male allyship is important.
65% of people agree that women won’t achieve equality in their country unless
men taken actions to support women’s rights too. But there are setbacks. Around half of people
globally think that men are being asked to do too much to support gender
equality (52%). Almost half of people (46%) think that we have gone so far in
promoting women’s equality that we are discriminating against men. Trends on attitudes to
gender equality Although there hasn’t been much change since last year, the long-term trends show some
attitudinal shifts across a 24-country average. There has been an increase in the
proportion of people who think that men are being expected to do too much to
support gender equality, rising from 41% in 2019 to 52% in 2023/2024. Similarly, more people think that when it comes to
giving women equal rights with men, things have gone far enough in their
country (41% in 2019 vs. 54% in 2023 / 2024). However, people remain more likely to define
themselves as a feminist now, compared with 2019 (39% vs. 33%) and are more
likely to think there are actions they can take to promote gender equality
(64% in 2023/2024 vs. 56% in 2018).
People don’t have a
preference about the gender of their leaders – but experience matters Overall people tend not to have a preference about
the gender of their political or business leaders – the majority of people
say they would have no preference towards a man or a woman if given a choice
(57% and 58% respectively). But experience matters. The more people have
experience of male and female leadership, the less likely they are to care
about their leaders’ gender. Seven in ten people (70%) who have experience living
under a male or female politician have no preference when it comes to
choosing the gender of their political leader. Two-thirds (66%) of people who have experience
working under a male and female boss have no preference when it comes to
choose the gender of their boss at work. Similarly, those who only have experience working
with a male boss are more likely to choose a male boss (46%) and those who
only have experience working with a female boss are likely to choose a female
boss (59%). And people are more likely to prefer bosses of their
own gender with 22% of women preferring a boss who was a woman (vs 12% of
men) and 26% of men saying they would prefer a boss who was a man (vs 17% of
women). Gender appears to make little difference in people’s
opinions about a leader’s capability to deliver economic and financial
success. The majority of people globally think male and
female politicians are equally good at defending national security (43%),
getting the economy back on track (43%) and fighting crime (42%). Or, that
they are both equally as bad as each other (17%, 22% and 21% respectively). Of those that have a preference, people are just as
likely to think that male or female politicians are better getting the
economy on track (10% male politicians are better versus 11% female
politicians are better). Just over half of people globally, think that male
and female business leaders are both equally good at creating a financially
successful and innovative company (both 55% respectively). (Ipsos Global) 04 March 2024 Source: https://www.ipsos.com/en/millennials-and-gen-z-less-favour-gender-equality-older-generations 834-838-43-33/Polls WIN World Survey – Gender Equality
– A Survey In 39 Countries Across The Globe
Significant gender equality gap still exists for
women
HEADLINES – IRELAND Women are more likely to
state lack of opportunities and pay disparity.
Violence incidence
gradually increases in Ireland
More work needed in
achieving gender equality in sports, politics, and the arts
Sinead Mooney, Managing
Director of RED C Research, said: “Such little positive
movement is hugely disappointing and suggests there is much to do. The
stark reality of the disparity in simply feeling safe walking alone at night
between men and women should warrant us to sit up and take action on key
issues. As a society at large we need to strive for better for all our
citizens.” HEADLINES WORLD
Vilma Scarpino, President
of WIN International Association, said: (REDC Research) 08 March 2024 Source: https://www.redcresearch.ie/win-world-survey-gender-equality/ 834-838-43-34/Polls How People In 24 Countries Think
Democracy Can Improve
Dissatisfaction with democracy is high and, in
many places, rising. But how do people think democracy in their country
could be improved? To answer this, Pew Research Center asked over 30,000
people in 24 countries what they think would help make democracy work better
where they live. Three key themes emerged: ·
Addressing basic needs. People
highlight problems with their country’s economy, the need for jobs, a desire
for safety and security, and problems with roads, electricity, health care
and more – pointing to the precursors
to democracy, or the things they need in order for it to function at all. ·
Improving the system. People also
want to improve parts of the government they already have. They want better
politicians or fairer implementation of existing rights. And many call for
their country’s citizens to participate more or behave differently in other
ways. ·
Overhauling the system. Some feel
like the system itself needs to be reformed through changes to the electoral
process, the balance of power between institutions, or the structure of
courts, among other suggestions. Jump to our quote
collection to read how people want to improve their
democracy in their own words. Addressing basic needs For some, there is a sense that good democracy is
based on their needs being met – and this is particularly true in the
middle-income countries we surveyed. For example, one woman in Indonesia
emphasized the need to “improve economic conditions to ensure democracy goes
well.” Others highlight jobs, managing inflation, caring for the
poor, livable wages, union reform and more.
“They should just work to reduce crime and get us
jobs and houses because that is what we are voting for.” Economic reform, Policies and legislation, Safety – Man, 18, South Africa “Change the economic system in Indonesia first so
people will get welfare. Then the democratic system will go well.” Economic reform – Woman, 41, Indonesia ·
Improving the system Fixing democracy for many respondents comes down to
improving politicians, changing citizen behavior and ensuring the fair
implementation of laws. In most countries, getting different or better politicians –
whether they be more representative of the population, more competent or more
responsive – is the most commonly
requested change. One Australian woman called for “more younger politicians
and those who are from working-class communities and realistic in
understanding how the less wealthy live.” A Kenyan woman said democracy would
improve if “leaders listen to Kenyans’ opinions and put the country’s
well-being ahead of their own.”
“Increased participation of the population in
politics. Education for people, because knowledgeable people know how to deal
with different opinions.” Citizens, Policies and legislation – Woman, 31, Brazil “This country is full of idiots. Let’s have some
real people in politics instead of these toffee-nosed public school boys. I
know it’s a generalization, but it sort of sums it up. Why can’t we have some
specialists, some real people to advise? Not those handpicked from the
aristocratic elite.” Politicians – Woman, 54, UK ·
Overhauling the system For some, fundamental
changes are needed to improve democracy. These can be very
country-specific changes, like abolishing the House of Lords in the
United Kingdom, changing the power of autonomous regions in
Spain or revising Article
49.3 in France. Others focus on the need to change the size of certain
institutions (such as the legislature), balance power between branches or
levels of government, or impose stricter term limits.
“Changing the electoral law with the possibility of
directly electing deputies and senators. It should not be as it is now, that
they are assigned by the parties. We should give more leeway to the prime
minister.” Electoral reform – Man, 78, Italy “Bring more issues to the general public for voting
instead of letting the current representatives vote on them. More
referendum-style voting on various issues.” Direct democracy – Woman, 34, Canada (PEW) 13 March 2024 |
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