The most pro-Israeli country is Germany, where 29% say they sympathise more with them rather than the Palestinians (12%). Nevertheless, this represents a notable nine point drop for Israel since October – expressing sympathy primarily for Israel has dipped across the countries surveyed, although this is unsurprising as the immediate aftermath of the Hamas attacks was always likely to be the high watermark.

Spain proves to be the most pro-Palestinian country, with 27% sympathising with that side more compared to 19% for Israel.

Between 24-31% of people in each country say they sympathise with both sides equally, and a further 27-37% say they are unsure (many of those answering “don’t know” to this and subsequent questions will be largely unfamiliar or uninterested in the geopolitical goings-on in the region, while others will be genuinely torn on what is a highly complex and contentious issue).

Do Western Europeans think they understand the attitudes of Israelis and Palestinians towards the conflict?

In Britain, France, Denmark and Sweden the public tend to say they can understand the motivations of each side, even if they don’t agree with them – and to about the same extent for each side.

In Germany, however, the public are substantially more likely to think they understand the Israeli mindset than the Palestinian one. While Germans say they understand Israeli attitudes by 49% to 30%, when it comes to Palestinian attitudes they say they cannot understand them by 45% to 33%.

To a lesser extent, the opposite is true in Spain. While Spaniards say they can understand the Palestinian mindset by 46% to 30%, they are divided in whether or not they feel they get where Israelis are coming from, at 39% to 39%.

Italians are somewhat divided for both sides of the conflict, being split 34% to 32% on the Palestinian attitudes and by 36% to 29% for Israeli views.

Do Western Europeans think the actions by Hamas and Israel are justified?

Few in each country surveyed feel the Hamas attacks on Israel were justified, ranging from 4% in Britain to 11% in France. Between 64% and 80% say the October attacks were not justified, with 17% to 26% unsure.

By contrast, more people see Israel’s attacks on Gaza in response as justified (18-35%) – although the tendency is to still see them as unjustified, with the Spanish (59%) and Italians (56%) most likely to say so. The French are an outlier here, being closely divided, with 37% saying Israel’s attacks are justified compared to 34% who disagree.

Attitudes on ending the conflict, short- and long-term

While Israel has said it intends to keep fighting until Hamas is destroyed, when posed the choice between continued military action and a ceasefire, most Western Europeans (55-73%) said they thought Israel should stop and call a ceasefire. (As noted above, fieldwork in most countries was conducted prior to the ceasefire in late November, although it is unlikely that desire for a ceasefire has diminished in the intervening period).

At that time, between 8% and 24% thought that Israel should continue to fight.

While many may find Hamas unpalatable, most do believe that Israel should be willing to enter into peace negotiations with Israel (58-73%). Between 12-23% think Israel should refuse to do so.

More still in each country say that Hamas should likewise be prepared to enter into negotiations with Israel (66-83%), with 4-11% disagreeing.

In the long term, when it comes to resolving the decades-long conflict, a ‘two state solution’ is the only one which garners majority support in Western Europe. Between 60% and 70% in each country give this approach their backing.

An alternative ‘one state solution’ – a single nation that would be home to both Jews and Palestinians – receives far less support, at 20-30%.

Dramatic maximalist positions which would see one side or the other expelled from the region receive little support in any country, at 5-13%.

The most likely outcome for the time being – the status quo – is satisfactory to very few, with only 8-14% saying they would support things remaining as they are.

Regardless, there is limited expectation that a permanent peace deal is realistically possible in the near future. Only between 14% and 31% in each country think it is plausible that the wider conflict can be brought to an end in the next decade – 40% to 62% see it as an impossibility.

Human shields and collateral damage

Charges have been levelled at both sides that civilians in the conflict zone are being put in harm’s way. Hamas has frequently been accused of using civilians as human shields for military targets, while Israel has likewise been criticised for apparently failing to minimize civilian casualties with its air strikes.

Most people in every country surveyed say they believe Hamas uses civilians as human shields (59-69%). Just 9-13% do not believe Hamas employs such tactics.

There is more division on whether Israel attempts to show restraint when it comes to its strikes in Gaza. While in France people are more likely to think Israel tries to minimize civilian casualties (by 40% to 32%), Germans are divided, and in the other countries surveyed the general expectation is that they do not. Spaniards are particularly likely to think Israel is not trying to limit collateral damage to civilians, at 55%.

(YouGov UK)

20 December 2023

Source: https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/48218-israel-palestine-fundamental-attitudes-to-the-conflict-among-western-europeans

SUMMARY OF POLLS

ASIA

(Pakistan)

Public Opinion Is Split Regarding PIA Privatization, As 35% Of Pakistanis Agree That PIA Should Be Privatized, While The Same Percentage Is Mirrored (35%) For Those Who Disagree

According to a survey conducted by Gallup & Gilani Pakistan, public opinion is split regarding PIA privatization, 35% of Pakistanis agree that PIA should be privatized, while the same percentage is mirrored (35%) for those who disagree. A nationally representative sample of adult men and women from across the country was asked the question, “To what extent do you agree or disagree with the statement, in my opinion, PIA should be privatized?” In response, 30% said ‘Completely agree’, 5% said ‘Agree to some extent’, 6% said ‘Neither agree nor disagree’, 6% said “Disagree to some extent”, 29% said ‘Completely disagree’ and 24% said that they did not know or gave no response.

(Gallup Pakistan)

20 December 2023

47% Pakistanis Believe That India Will Use Nuclear Weapons In The Case Of War Between India And Pakistan

According to a survey conducted by Gallup & Gilani Pakistan, 47% Pakistanis believe that India will use nuclear weapons in the case of war between India and Pakistan, whereas 25% believe that it will not. A nationally representative sample of adult men and women from across the country was asked the question, “Suppose there is a war between India and Pakistan. Do you think India will use nuclear weapons or not?” In response, 47% said ‘India will use nuclear weapons’, 25% said ‘India will not use nuclear weapons’, and 28% said that they did not know or gave no response.

(Gallup Pakistan)

27 December 2023

In Q3 2023, 21% More Businesses Than In The Previous Quarter Think That Their Business Will Be Better Off In The Future

(Gallup Pakistan)

05 January 2024

AFRICA

(South Africa)

South Africans Dissatisfied With Government Performance On Child Well-Being

One-third of South Africa’s 60 million people are under age 18. Reflecting the country’s legacy of racial, spatial, and social inequalities, almost two-thirds (62%) of these children live in low-income households, with high levels of exposure to poverty, hunger, and health and educational disadvantages. Many also face the threat of violence and abuse. UNICEF reports that from April to June 2022, 243 children in South Africa were killed while 1,670 suffered grievous bodily harm. Studies show that one-fourth of South African children experience physical, sexual, or emotional abuse or neglect.

(Afrobarometer)

18 December 2023

(Kenya)

For The First Time In A Decade, Kenyans See Management Of The Economy As Their Most Important Problem

Over the past decade, Kenya’s government has made notable progress toward achieving economic development as set out in its Vision 2030 and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Statistics from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (2022) indicate that the national economy grew at an average rate of 4.3% between 2017 and 2021 (see Table A.1 in the Appendix). In addition, in line with its 2010 Constitution, Kenya has been implementing devolution, whose main intention is to bring services and resources closer to citizens and to improve their livelihoods.

(Afrobarometer)

26 December 2023

(Nigeria)

Economic Hardship And Hunger Top Reasons Nigerians Are Dissatisfied With Year 2023

(NOI Polls)

30 December 2023

WEST EUROPE

(UK)

A Majority Of Britons (57%) Said They Supported Single Market Membership

Recent YouGov polling has shown significantly different levels of support for Single Market membership depending on whether the question mentions freedom of movement. In a November poll, a majority of Britons (57%) said they supported Single Market membership “if it meant that EU citizens would have the right to live and work in the UK and UK citizens would have the right to live and work elsewhere in the EU”. By contrast, in a poll this month only 42% said they supported membership when asked in isolation, with a corresponding increase in “don’t know” responses from 21% to 36%.

(YouGov UK)

04 January 2024

Britons Increasingly Worried About The State Of The NHS In The Post-Pandemic Period

With a general election likely this year, both the Conservatives and Labour will be looking to set out their pitches to the public. With ‘health’ currently sitting second on the list of issues that are most important to Britons (at 45%, including 56% of 2019 Labour voters and 41% of 2019 Tory voters), Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer will both be hoping to promote their credentials for looking after the NHS. The prime minister is going to have a hard time defending the government’s record. Since our website trackers started in 2019, the government has been seen to be handling the National Health Service pretty poorly.

(YouGov UK)

05 January 2024

NORTH AMERICA

(USA)

New Covid Shot Uptake Lagging Behind Annual Flu Shot Rates

Less than one-third of Americans, 29%, have gotten the new COVID-19 vaccine that was released this fall. In contrast, 47% of U.S. adults say they have gotten the annual flu shot this year. Another 20% of U.S. adults indicate they plan to get the new COVID-19 shot, which could bring the level of current vaccination against COVID-19 to close to half of Americans, but that still falls below the combined 63% who have gotten or plan to get the flu shot.

(Gallup)

20 December 2023

No Top U.S. Government Official Earns Majority Job Approval

As Congress and the Supreme Court return from holiday break, none of the leading elected or appointed figures of the U.S. federal government receives majority approval from Americans. Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts fares best, with 48% approving of his job performance, while House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries is a close second, at 46%. On the other hand, Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell has no competition for the distinction of being the least well-regarded, garnering a 27% job approval rating. The next lowest is President Joe Biden at 39%.

(Gallup)

04 January 2024

Record Low In U.S. Satisfied With Way Democracy Is Working

Gallup has asked Americans about their satisfaction with U.S. democracy nine times since 1984. The high point came in the first reading, when 61% of Americans were satisfied with the way democracy was working. It was nearly as high, at 60%, in 1991. A new low of 28% of U.S. adults are satisfied with the way democracy is working in the country. The current figure is down from the prior low -- 35% measured shortly after the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol by rioters trying to prevent Congress from certifying Joe Biden’s victory in the 2020 presidential election.

(Gallup)

05 January 2024

Fewer Young Men Are In College, Especially At 4-Year Schools

College enrollment among young Americans has been declining gradually over the past decade. In 2022, the total number of 18- to 24-year-olds enrolled in college was down by approximately 1.2 million from its peak in 2011. Most of the decline is due to fewer young men pursuing college. About 1 million fewer young men are in college but only 0.2 million fewer young women. As a result, men make up 44% of young college students today, down from 47% in 2011, according to newly released U.S. Census Bureau data.

(PEW)

18 December 2023

A Majority Of Americans Have A Friend Of A Different Religion

It’s common for Americans to have friends of a different religion than their own. Overall, about four-in-ten U.S. adults (37%) say that all or most of their friends have the same religion they do. But about six-in-ten (61%) report having at least some friends whose religion differs from their own, according to a December 2022 Pew Research Center survey. That includes 43% who say only some of their friends have the same religion they do and another 18% who say hardly any or none of their friends do.

(PEW)

19 December 2023

Black Americans Are More Likely Than Others To Say They See Problematic News Coverage Of Black People

Black Americans see several problems with how the news media covers Black people, according to a 2023 Pew Research Center survey on Black Americans’ experiences with news. For example, about four-in-ten Black Americans (39%) say they extremely or fairly often see or hear news coverage about Black people that is racist or racially insensitive. A similar share (41%) say they sometimes see this kind of coverage. Among White Americans, 21% report seeing this kind of coverage extremely or fairly often, while an additional 30% see it sometimes.

(PEW)

22 December 2023

2023 Saw Some Of The Biggest, Hardest-Fought Labor Disputes In Recent Decades

The nearly four-month actors’ strike against major Hollywood production studios in 2023 was the second-largest labor dispute in the United States in at least three decades, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of federal data through Nov. 30. Beyond the SAG-AFTRA strike, 2023 was the most active year overall for major labor disputes in more than two decades, according to our analysis of BLS data on major work stoppages. The BLS defines major stoppages as those involving 1,000 or more workers and lasting at least one full shift during the Monday-Friday work week.

(PEW)

04 January 2024

(Canada)

In Canada, Vast Majority Agree Both Anti-Semitism & Anti-Muslim Views Are Problems; Less Consensus Over Severity

New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds broad agreement in this country that both anti-Semitism and anti-Muslim discrimination are problems domestically. Indeed, three-quarters see both as significantly problematic, while just 11 per cent of Canadians feel that each is “not really a problem”. However, there are varying perceptions of the severity of the problem both anti-Semitism and anti-Muslim attitudes pose. Canadians older than 54 are much more likely to view anti-Semitism as a major problem (34%) than those younger than 35 (22%).

(Angus Reid Institute)

20 December 2023

Two-In-Five Canadians Say They Had A Good Year Overall, While One-Quarter Say It Was More Negative Than Positive

As Canadians load their plates with post-Christmas leftovers and reflect on a year almost over, new data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds 2023 receiving mixed reviews. Considering factors such as their health, happiness and financial situation two-in-five Canadians say the year was more good than bad for them, with one-third saying it was average, and one-quarter more negative than positive about the last 12 months. While the majority say they’re satisfied with this aspect of life, fully two-in-five say they are not. More than half of those with household incomes lower than $50,000 join the latter group, who hope that 2024 will bring more prosperity.

(Angus Reid Institute)

27 December 2023

AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Up 1pt To 81.8 To End 2023 At Its Highest Since Early February 2023

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increased 1pt to 81.8 this week, a second straight weekly increase to end the year at its highest since early February 2023. However, despite the increase, Consumer Confidence has now spent a record 46 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence has ended 2023 only 0.7pts below the same week a year ago, December 12-18, 2022 (82.5) and nearly 4 points above the 2023 weekly average of 78.0. The 2023 weekly average of 78.0 is a record low for the index, below the previous record low of 82.6 in 1990 over 30 years ago.

(Roy Morgan)

19 December 2023

Inflation Expectations In Mid-December Are At 5.3% – Slightly Down From The Month Of November (5.4%)

The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan weekly Inflation Expectations are at 5.3% for the week of December 11-17, 2023 – in line with the four-week average of 5.3% and 0.1% points lower than the month of November. A look at the monthly Inflation Expectations for November 2023 shows the measure at 5.4% for the month, an increase of 0.1% points on October 2023 (5.3%). In the month of November 2023 Australians expected inflation of 5.4% annually over the next two years. However, since November ended, Inflation Expectations have dropped slightly in the early weeks of December.

(Roy Morgan)

19 December 2023

MULTICOUNTRY STUDIES

A Gap Continues Between Climate Efforts And People’s Concerns For The Environment, A Study Across 12 MENA Countries

Overshadowed by the war in Gaza, the 2023 UN Climate Change Conference (COP28) concluded its final session on December 12, 2023 in Dubai to mixed responses. On the one hand, COP28 reached some important achievements, including a deal calling for transitioning away from fossil fuels and a loss and damage fund. On the other hand, some argue that such celebrated achievements fell short of what is actually needed. While the COP28 summit made important progress, as outlined in the Global Stocktake, what has been accomplished so far still lags behind the concerns and demands of people across the region.

(Arabbarometer)

19 December 2023

Source: https://www.arabbarometer.org/2023/12/a-gap-continues-between-climate-efforts-and-peoples-concerns-for-the-environment/

Israel-Palestine: Fundamental Attitudes To The Conflict Among Western Europeans, A 7 Nation Study

With the renewed fighting in Israel and Palestine now in its third month, a new YouGov Eurotrack survey conducted in seven Western European nations – Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Denmark and Sweden – explores fundamental attitudes to the conflict, including whether Europeans can understand the mindsets of its participants, whether they think each side’s attacks were justified, and how they think the conflict should be resolved in the short and long term. The most pro-Israeli country is Germany, where 29% say they sympathise more with them rather than the Palestinians (12%). Spain proves to be the most pro-Palestinian country, with 27% sympathising with that side more compared to 19% for Israel.

(YouGov UK)

20 December 2023

Source: https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/48218-israel-palestine-fundamental-attitudes-to-the-conflict-among-western-europeans

Data Dive: 2023 In Review, A Survey In 33 Countries

Living through 2023 felt like riding a rollercoaster. There were some exhilarating highs over the past year with the World Health Organization finally(!) declaring an end to COVID-19 as a global health emergency and red-hot prices cooling slightly in several countries. And there were some really sad lows, namely the start of the Israel-Hamas war and the continuation of the invasion of Ukraine. 2023 was also filled with record-breaking heat and fear-inducing reports about the impact artificial intelligence (AI) might have on all our lives in the years ahead.

(Ipsos Global)

20 December 2023

Source: https://www.ipsos.com/en/data-dive-2023-review

Gallup International Association “End Of Year” Global Polling Tradition, A Survey Conducted In 42 Countries

The End of Year Survey by Gallup International Association was conducted in 42 countries, including Pakistan, with a sample of 40,428. More people optimistic (41%) than pessimistic (36%) about Pakistan’s future. Compared to last year, hope for the future has decreased by 19%. Compared to the regional countries participating in the survey, including India. Afghanistan and Iran, Pakistan comes second in terms of optimism for the upcoming year. Hopes for 2024 for Pakistan: 41% hopeful 2024 will be a good year When Pakistani respondents were asked “As far as you are concerned, do you think that 2024 will be better, worse or the same as 2023?”, 41% of them were hopeful that 2024 would be a better year than 2023, while only 36% thought it would be worse. According to 14% of them, 2024 would be the same at 2023.

(Gallup Pakistan)

01 January 2024

Source: https://gallup.com.pk/wp/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Gallup-Pakistan-End-of-Year-Survey.pdf

ASIA

826-828-43-01/Polls

Public Opinion Is Split Regarding PIA Privatization, As 35% Of Pakistanis Agree That PIA Should Be Privatized, While The Same Percentage Is Mirrored (35%) For Those Who Disagree

(Gallup Pakistan)

20 December 2023

Source: https://gallup.com.pk/wp/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/english-combined.pdf

826-828-43-02/Polls

47% Pakistanis Believe That India Will Use Nuclear Weapons In The Case Of War Between India And Pakistan

(Gallup Pakistan)

27 December 2023

Source: https://gallup.com.pk/wp/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/27.12.23-eng.pdf

826-828-43-03/Polls

In Q3 2023, 21% More Businesses Than In The Previous Quarter Think That Their Business Will Be Better Off In The Future

According to a survey conducted by Gallup & Gilani Pakistan, this quarter, 21% more businesses than in the previous quarter think that their businesses will be better off in the future; 61% in Q3 2023 said expectations for the future are positive, while 38% expect things to get worse. The Net Future Business Confidence score has increased by 42%. The complete report for the Business Confidence Survey Q3 2023 can be accessed here. A nationally representative sample of businesses from across the country was asked the question, “What are your expectations for the future of your business compared to the past?” In response, 6% said ‘Very good’, 55% said ‘Good’, 29% said ‘Bad’, and 9% said ‘Very bad’.

(Gallup Pakistan)

05 January 2024

Source: https://gallup.com.pk/wp/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/5.1.24-english.pdf

AFRICA

826-828-43-04/Polls

South Africans Dissatisfied With Government Performance On Child Well-Being

One-third of South Africa’s 60 million people are under age 18 (Hall, 2022). Reflecting the country’s legacy of racial, spatial, and social inequalities, almost two-thirds (62%) of these children live in low-income households, with high levels of exposure to poverty, hunger, and health and educational disadvantages (Statistics South Africa, 2020; Makoae, Roberts, & Ward, 2012).

Many also face the threat of violence and abuse. UNICEF reports that from April to June 2022, 243 children in South Africa were killed while 1,670 suffered grievous bodily harm (Petla, 2022). Studies show that one-fourth of South African children experience physical, sexual, or emotional abuse or neglect (Strydom, Schiller, & Orme, 2021).

While childhood death has declined nationally, non-natural deaths among 5- to 9-year-olds have increased, from 24% of all deaths in 2014 to 39% in 2018 (Statistics South Africa, 2020). Gruesome cases hit the headlines and social media, such as the mutilation-murder of 4-year-old Bokgabo Poo in late 2022 (Petla, 2022) and the sexual assault and grooming of minor children by their foster parents (Mitchley, 2023).

The state’s legal arsenal to protect children includes the Domestic Violence Act (1998), the Children’s Act (2005), and the Criminal Law (Sexual Offences and Related Matters) Amendment Act (2007) (Artz et al., 2016). The government also provides income support to vulnerable households; in 2018, 68% of children aged 0-17 years benefited from a child support grant (Statistics South Africa, 2020).

This dispatch reports on a survey module included in the Afrobarometer Round 9 (2021/2023) questionnaire to explore African attitudes and perceptions about child well-being.

In South Africa, findings show that a majority of citizens endorse the use of physical force to discipline children, and about half say the practice is common in their community.

Substantial minorities see child abuse and neglect and out-of-school children as common occurrences in their community.

Slim majorities say that resources are available in their community to help children who are abused or neglected, children with disabilities, and children and adults facing mental or emotional problems, but many disagree.

Poor citizens are particularly likely to endorse the use of physical force, to say that corporal punishment is common, to see child abuse/neglect and out-of-school children as common issues, and to report that support services for vulnerable children are not available in their community.

Overall, fewer than half of South Africans approve of the government’s performance in protecting and promoting the well-being of vulnerable children.

Key findings

A majority (56%) of South Africans say parents are “sometimes” or “always” justified in using physical force to discipline their children. o Support for the use of physical discipline increases sharply with respondents’ experience of lived poverty.
About half (49%) of citizens say the use of physical force to discipline children is “somewhat common” or “very common” in their community.
Four in 10 South Africans (39%) say child abuse and neglect are common problems in their community, and almost half (46%) say the same about out-of-school children. o Poor citizens are significantly more likely than well-off respondents to report that child abuse/neglect and out-of-school children are frequent problems in their community.
More than half of South Africans say resources are available in their community to help abused and neglected children (53%), children with disabilities (55%), and children and adults with mental or emotional problems (52%). o Citizens who are poor and those who have primary education or less are considerably less likely than their better-off and more educated counterparts to report that support services for vulnerable children are available in their community.
More than half (51%) of South Africans say the government is doing a “fairly bad” or “very bad” job of protecting and promoting the well-being of vulnerable children.

(Afrobarometer)

18 December 2023

Source: https://www.afrobarometer.org/publication/ad748-south-africans-dissatisfied-with-government-performance-on-child-well-being/

826-828-43-05/Polls

For The First Time In A Decade, Kenyans See Management Of The Economy As Their Most Important Problem

In the most recent Afrobarometer survey – conducted in late 2021, after the COVID-19 pandemic had temporarily thrown the economy into disarray – three-fourths of Kenyans saw the country as heading in the wrong direction, and a majority had experienced moderate or high levels of lived poverty during the preceding year (Afrobarometer, 2022). Economic performance was a top agenda item for politicians and analysts during the campaign leading up to the August 2022 elections. In political spaces, many discussions also revolved around how to address corruption and unemployment, especially unemployment among the youth (estimated at nearly 40%) (Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, 2023).

And for the first time in a decade of Afrobarometer surveys, management of the economy ranked No. 1 – up from No. 6 – among the most important problems that Kenyans want their government to address. This shift clearly indicates the economic pressures that Kenyans have been feeling as prices of food, fuel, and other basic commodities continue to rise.

Key findings

For the first time in a decade, management of the economy ranked as the top issue that Kenyans want their government to address, climbing from the No. 6 position in three previous survey rounds.
Corruption and unemployment followed economic management as top priorities for government action.
Rural residents tended to be concerned about the delivery of services (such as education and water) and food shortages, while their urban counterparts were more likely to focus on unemployment, corruption, and crime/security.
Kenyans gave their government very poor marks on its efforts to manage the economy: Only 17% said it was doing “fairly well” or “very well.” Similarly, few citizens approved of the government’s performance on fighting corruption (22%), improving living standards of the poor (16%), and creating jobs (14%).

(Afrobarometer)

26 December 2023

Source: https://www.afrobarometer.org/publication/ad754-for-the-first-time-in-a-decade-kenyans-see-management-of-the-economy-as-their-most-important-problem/

826-828-43-06/Polls

Economic Hardship And Hunger Top Reasons Nigerians Are Dissatisfied With Year 2023

Picture showing citizens satisfaction and dissatisfactions for year 2023

A new public opinion poll has revealed that most Nigerians (66 percent) are dissatisfied with the year 2023. Geo-political zones analysis reveals the North East region (76 percent) has the highest number of Nigerians who made this assertion. According to the poll, Nigerians highlighted four major areas that influenced their dissatisfaction with the year 2023 and this includes hunger and economic hardship, increased inflation, things not working well, and a poor economy. The subsidy removal by the federal government in May this year without introducing wide-reaching palliatives to cushion the effect may have contributed to the proportion of respondents who expressed dissatisfaction. The report of the World Bank further corroborates the Poll findings released this year that more than 4 million Nigerians have been plunged into poverty in the first six months of the year 2023 and a further 7.1 million Nigerians will enter poverty if adequate measures are not put in place[1].

Explicitly, the poll revealed that 37 percent of respondents stated that they were dissatisfied with the year because of the economic hardship and hunger they experienced in the year 2023. While 22 percent of the respondents stated high inflation as the reason for their dissatisfaction, 17 percent stated things not working well as a reason for their dissatisfaction with the year 2023. Other factors attributed to the dissatisfaction of Nigerians include poor economy (5 percent), and bad leadership (4 percent). Fuel subsidy issues, food insecurity, and worsened insecurity all tied at 3 percent, with scarcity of cash (2 percent), and irregular power supply at (1 percent).

On the flip side, 34 percent of respondents claimed that they were satisfied with the year 2023. Of the 34 percent who expressed satisfaction, 29 percent stated that ‘they thank God for life’, 16 percent stated ‘because the government is trying their best’, and 11 percent stated, ‘my business has improved’. Other reasons adduced by respondents include ‘security is gradually improving and ‘prompt payment of salaries both tied at 7 percent, ‘slight improvement in electricity supply (3 percent), and improved infrastructure (2 Percent) amongst other reasons put forward by respondents.

It is important to highlight that 34 percent of Nigerians still find reasons to be satisfied with the year 2023 despite the challenges a lot of Nigerians experienced over the year. This can be attributed to the unwavering, unflinching, resolute, and undying spirit of Nigerians in the face of hard times which should be commended and applauded. Regardless, the government must pay attention to areas highlighted by Nigerians that made them dissatisfied with the year 2023. These include hunger and economic hardship, high inflation and things not working well, as well as a poor economy to improve the living conditions of Nigerians in the coming year 2024.

These are key highlights from the End of Year Poll conducted in the week commencing December 18th, 2023.

BACKGROUND

Christmas and New Year festivities over the world always climax at the end of the year, and usher in the new year in a dynamic and celebratory mood. Christmas day which is observed every 25th December is set aside as a day to commemorate the birth of Jesus Christ by Christians and use the day to share love and care to loved ones and the needy among them. The days after Christmas up to the new year are also days to celebrate and thank God for life, the gift of friends and families. Many Nigerians use this period to travel to the countryside to visit their families and relations with re-uniting intentions, others use the period to reflect on the outgoing year, especially in areas they will need to work hard to have a better year ahead.

However, due to the economic challenges occasioned by the effects of the fuel subsidy removal which ultimately led to a high cost of transportation, a lot of Nigerians did not travel this year, 2023. Also, the high cost of food items has made a lot of Nigerians celebrate Christmas low-key with hopes that the government will expedite actions in tackling the many socio-economic issues currently plaguing the Country. Most Nigerians are looking up to the new year with optimism and hope that they will experience a turn-around of things at the earliest so that they can breathe a sigh of relief and experience a new lease of life.

Against this backdrop, NOIPolls surveyed to seek the views of Nigerians regarding how they fared in the year and their aspirations for the new year and hereby presents its findings.

Survey Findings

The first question gauged the level of satisfaction of respondents with the year 2023, thus asked respondents’ satisfaction with the year 2023. The poll result revealed that most Nigerians (66 percent) asserted that they were not satisfied with the year 2023. Analysis by geo-political zone revealed that the North-East zone (76 percent) had the highest proportion of Nigerians who made this assertion. Also, with regards to age group, the analysis showed that the level of dissatisfaction is highest among respondents within the age group of 36-60 (68 percent).

On the other hand, 34 percent of the respondents mentioned that they are satisfied with the year 2023, and Nigerians living in the North-West zone (41 percent) had more respondents who stated this.

Picture showing citizens level of satisfaction and dissatisfaction for the year 2023

Citizens perception for year 2023

Subsequently, 66 percent of the respondents who stated that they were dissatisfied were further probed and analysis showed the 4 major areas Nigerians expressed dissatisfaction with include hunger and economic hardship, increased inflation, things not working well, and poor economy. Specifically, the poll revealed that 37 percent of respondents expressed dissatisfaction mostly because of the ‘economic hardship and hunger’ they faced this year. Also, 22 percent mentioned ‘increased inflation’, 17 specified ‘due to things not working well’ and 5 percent attributed their dissatisfaction to the ‘poor economy’ in the country. Other reasons mentioned are ‘bad leadership’ (4 percent), ‘fuel subsidy issue’, ‘food insecurity’, and ‘worsened insecurity’ all tied at (3 percent), ‘scarcity of cash’ (2 percent), and ‘irregular power supply’ (1 percent).

On the contrary, respondents who expressed satisfaction with the current year stated the top 4 reasons for their satisfaction are: ‘the gift of life’ (39 percent), ‘the government is trying their best’ (16 percent), ‘business has improved’ (11 percent) and ‘some sectors of the economy have improved’ (9 percent). Other reasons presented include ‘security is gradually improving’, ‘prompt payment of salaries/promotions’ both tied at (7 percent), ‘slight improvement in electricity supply’ (3 percent), ‘improved infrastructure’ and ‘improved job creation both tied’ at (2 percent) while 1 percent stated that there is no reason for their satisfaction with the year.

Picture showing why citizens and satisfied and dissatisfied with 2023

Reasons for citizens satisfaction and dissatisfaction for 2023

Conclusion

In conclusion, the poll result reveals that a large proportion of respondents (66 percent) are dissatisfied with the year 2023 highlighting key areas of their dissatisfaction which include hunger and economic hardship (37 percent), increased inflation (22 percent), things are not working well (17 percent) and poor economy (5 percent). These areas highlighted by respondents are critical for the survival of Nigerians. They will require the government of the day and relevant stakeholders to expedite actions, which include poverty reduction, job creation, and consistent economic growth in tackling these challenges so that Nigerians will experience a new lease of life in the coming year 2024.

(NOI Polls)

30 December 2023

Source: https://www.noi-polls.com/post/economic-hardship-and-hunger-top-reasons-nigerians-are-dissatisfied-with-year-2023

WEST EUROPE

826-828-43-07/Polls

A Majority Of Britons (57%) Said They Supported Single Market Membership

No more than half correctly identified any of the aspects we put to them

Recent YouGov polling has shown significantly different levels of support for Single Market membership depending on whether the question mentions freedom of movement.

In a November poll, a majority of Britons (57%) said they supported Single Market membership “if it meant that EU citizens would have the right to live and work in the UK and UK citizens would have the right to live and work elsewhere in the EU”. By contrast, in a poll this month only 42% said they supported membership when asked in isolation, with a corresponding increase in “don’t know” responses from 21% to 36% (the number opposed remained the same).

With a return to Single Market membership seen by some as a solution to the UK’s economic woes that does not overturn the 2016 EU referendum result, this could therefore be the next political battleground on how closely Britain should be connected to the EU.

This raises the question: what do Britons think Single Market membership entails?

To find out, we put seven true or false questions about Single Market membership to the public to see which they can correctly identify.

For each question, between 39% and 48% answered “don’t know”.

The public are most likely to correctly state that Single Market membership would involve paying an annual contribution to the EU’s budget (49%) and that it would not require the UK to replace the pound with the euro (50%).

Approximately four in ten (39-41%) correctly identified that Single Market membership would allow: British businesses to establish themselves and operate freely in the EU (and vice versa for EU companies); there would no longer be import duties on goods imported to the UK from the EU (and vice versa); and that EU citizens would have the right to live and work in the UK (and vice versa).

The public are least likely to correctly state that Single Market membership would mean that Britain would fall under the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice (34%), and that it would not give Britain voting rights on EU laws (35%). This latter point is the one on which the public are most likely to be actively mistaken – 23% believe that Single Market membership would give the UK voting rights on EU legislation.

How do expectations of Single Market membership differ between supporters and opponents?

Those who support Britain’s membership of the Single Market are more likely to be aware that this would allow British and EU companies to operate freely in one another’s territories, and that there would not be customs duties on goods travelling between the two realms. While six in ten (61-63%) of those who back membership are aware of these facts, this falls to 40% among those who are opposed. Indeed, opponents of Single Market membership are more likely to think these statements are actively untrue (20-24%) than supporters (10-11%).

Single Market supporters are also more likely to be aware that it would allow EU and UK citizens to live and work in one another’s territories (by 53% to 40% among Single Market opponents).

For their part, opponents of Single Market membership are slightly more likely to be aware that this would bring the UK under the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice, by 50% to 44%.

When it comes to erroneous beliefs, supporters of joining the Single Market are more likely to incorrectly think that this would give the UK voting rights on EU laws (at 32% compared to 21% of opponents), while those opposed to Single Market membership are more likely to wrongly believe that this would require the UK to adopt the euro currency (22% versus 9% of supporters).

Both sides are about equally likely (62-65%) to know that Single Market membership requires an annual contribution to the EU’s budget.

(YouGov UK)

04 January 2024

Source: https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/48259-what-do-britons-think-single-market-membership-entails

826-828-43-08/Polls

Britons Increasingly Worried About The State Of The NHS In The Post-Pandemic Period

Confidence in the Conservatives' handling of the NHS has plummeted

The prime minister is going to have a hard time defending the government’s record. Since our website trackers started in 2019, the government has been seen to be handling the National Health Service pretty poorly.

Post-pandemic we have seen a steady decrease in satisfaction with how the NHS is being run, hitting the lowest point in January last year when just 9% said it was being handled ‘well’ and 86% said ‘badly’. Opinion has flatlined at about this level for the past 12 months, with still only 12% now saying it is being handled well, and those saying ‘badly’ sitting at 82%. In fact, it is seen as the second worst handled issue, behind only immigration.

Labour and Conservative voters have similar views on the topic. An overwhelming 91% of 2019 Labour voters believe the current government are handling the issue badly, as do three quarters of 2019 Conservative voters (74%).

At the same time, most people feel that the state of NHS services nationally are now bad (69%) rather than good (20%). This is quite a steep deterioration over the last couple of years - back in January 2022 these figures were much more positive, with 47% saying good and 40% bad. Locally, we have seen the same pattern of growing dissatisfaction, but Britons are more positive about the state of local NHS services - currently 50% say they are ‘good’ and 42% say they are ‘bad’.

Indeed, while Britain is a nation that prides itself on the world stage as having a great public-funded health service, in the last couple of years public confidence has taken a substantial knock when comparing ourselves to our European neighbours.

Prior to the pandemic, around one in three felt the NHS was better than its European counterparts (32% in February 2020), with 26% thinking it was about the same, and only 17% considering it worse.

Attitudes have now flipped, with Britons more likely to consider the NHS worse than European healthcare systems – 28% say so, compared to 20% who still think it is better. The proportion who think they are about the same remains unchanged, at 25%.

But do Britons think the NHS has reached rock bottom and can now only get better?

The short answer is no. A total of 56% believe the NHS will only get worse over the next few years, while only 14% think it will get better and a further 22% think it will stay in the state it is now. Concerns with how the NHS will fare over the next few years began to grow back in June 2020, and by the end of the worst of the pandemic (January 2022) we saw 51% saying they think services will ‘get worse’ over the next few years.

Would Labour or the Conservatives be better for running the NHS?

When looking at who Britons think would handle the NHS best, Labour hold a clear lead, with 39% Keir Starmer’s party and the Conservatives trailing behind on 11%. This gap has grown over the last couple of years, with January 2022 seeing Labour on 33% and the Conservatives on 20%.

Importantly, whilst 2019 Labour voters’ confidence in their party to handle the issue has remained pretty consistent over this time – sitting at a strong 70% – we have seen a striking decrease in 2019 Conservatives’ confidence in their own party, from 50% in January 2022 to 27% now. At the same time, 2019 Tories’ confidence in Labour has grown from 11% to 21% now.

(YouGov UK)

05 January 2024

Source: https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/48268-healthscare-britons-increasingly-worried-about-the-state-of-the-nhs-in-the-post-pandemic-period

NORTH AMERICA

826-828-43-09/Polls

New Covid Shot Uptake Lagging Behind Annual Flu Shot Rates

Less than one-third of Americans, 29%, have gotten the new COVID-19 vaccine that was released this fall. In contrast, 47% of U.S. adults say they have gotten the annual flu shot this year.

Another 20% of U.S. adults indicate they plan to get the new COVID-19 shot, which could bring the level of current vaccination against COVID-19 to close to half of Americans, but that still falls below the combined 63% who have gotten or plan to get the flu shot.

These results are based on Gallup’s latest COVID-19 survey update, conducted Nov. 30-Dec. 7 with more than 6,000 adult members of Gallup’s probability-based panel.

Gallup had found that over seven in 10 U.S. adults had received the earlier versions of COVID-19 vaccines, which were first available to the public in late 2020 and early 2021. The past two years, booster shots to those initial vaccines were made available. The new shot can be given to people regardless of whether they have been previously vaccinated against COVID-19.

Older Americans, those aged 65 and older, are getting the updated COVID-19 shots at higher rates than the general population -- 46% have already done so. However, seniors are still more likely to have gotten the annual flu shot, with 68% saying they had.

This year, public health officials have also recommended that older Americans get vaccinated against respiratory syncytial virus, or RSV. To date, 22% of U.S. seniors have gotten an RSV vaccination.

In addition to age differences, vaccine intentions for both COVID-19 and flu differ by party identification, but more so for COVID-19.

Whereas nearly half of Democrats (48%) have gotten the updated COVID-19 shot, 20% of political independents and 10% of Republicans have.
Eighty-two percent of Republicans say they will not get the updated COVID-19 shot.
Sixty-one percent of Democrats, 38% of independents and 35% of Republicans have gotten the flu shot this year. Half of Republicans, 52%, say they will not do so.

Prior COVID-19 Infections, Safety Concerns Underlie Vaccine Hesitancy

Among the subset of U.S. adults who do not intend to receive the new COVID-19 shot, their primary reasons for not doing so are because they have had COVID-19 and believe they have antibodies (27%) and because of safety concerns about the vaccine (24%). The next most common reasons are because of questions about the effectiveness of the vaccine (18%) and because they don’t believe they would suffer serious health effects from the coronavirus (16%).

Smaller proportions under 10% say they distrust vaccines in general or are concerned about an allergic reaction to the vaccine.

Forty-two percent of Democratic holdouts say they do not intend to get the new COVID-19 shot because they have had COVID-19, a much larger percentage than for independents (26%) or Republicans (20%) who don’t plan to be vaccinated. Republicans who do not plan to get the COVID-19 vaccine are most likely to cite safety concerns (31%) as their primary reason.

Worry About COVID-19 Subdued; Public Sees Improving Situation

Americans may see less of a need to get vaccinated against COVID-19 because they are less worried about getting the illness and believe the situation is improving.

Twenty-three percent of U.S. adults are very or somewhat worried about getting COVID-19, which is near the low in Gallup’s trend. Concern had ticked up in the prior survey, conducted in August and September, from 18% to 27% before edging down this month.

The high point in worry was measured in separate July and August 2020 surveys, when the pandemic was still in its earlier stages and before a vaccine had been developed. The low point was 17% in June 2021, when cases were declining and the vaccine was widely available.

After a less optimistic assessment of the COVID-19 situation in the August/September survey, a majority of Americans, 53%, once again see the situation as getting better. Thirty-two percent say the situation is not changing, and 15% believe it is getting worse.

Still, Americans are not as positive as they were earlier this year, when 71% thought the situation was improving.

An analysis of the data shows that Americans who are more concerned about getting COVID-19, personally, or believe the situation is worsening in the country, are more likely to have gotten vaccinated or to plan to get vaccinated.

Forty-two percent of those who are worried about getting COVID-19 have gotten the new shot, compared with 34% who are not too worried and 15% who are not worried at all. All told, 73% of those who are worried have gotten vaccinated or plan to, compared with one in four among those who are not worried at all about getting the coronavirus.

Similarly, 42% who think the COVID-19 situation is getting worse have already gotten the updated shot, compared with roughly a quarter of those who think the situation is improving or not changing.

Bottom Line

Americans seem to be heeding public health officials’ recommendation to get annual flu shots to a greater degree than they are complying with their advice to get the latest COVID-19 vaccine. This may reflect lessened worry about the COVID-19 situation as it pertains to them personally and to the country more broadly. Gallup did not ask respondents about their concern with getting the flu or their assessment of the flu situation in the U.S., so it is not possible to know if greater levels of flu vaccination stem from greater worry about the flu situation than the COVID-19 situation. Greater rates of flu vaccination may reflect that that procedure is more of an established routine for Americans than getting annual COVID-19 shots.

(Gallup)

20 December 2023

Source: https://news.gallup.com/poll/547625/new-covid-shot-uptake-lagging-behind-annual-flu-shot-rates.aspx

826-828-43-10/Polls

No Top U.S. Government Official Earns Majority Job Approval

On the other hand, Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell has no competition for the distinction of being the least well-regarded, garnering a 27% job approval rating. The next lowest is President Joe Biden at 39%.

Six other key officials in the legislative and executive branches of the federal government receive approval ratings of 40% to 45%.

These findings are from a Gallup poll conducted Dec. 1-20. Gallup last measured job approval ratings for top governmental leaders two years ago, in December 2021. Eight of the leaders measured today were on the 2021 list in their current positions, while Jeffries and Speaker of the House Mike Johnson are relatively new to their congressional leadership roles, appearing on the list for the first time this year.

Roberts, Powell Have Lost Most Support Since 2021

Although Roberts currently fares relatively well compared with his federal government peers, he has suffered the steepest decline in approval since December 2021 of the eight leaders measured in both surveys. In that earlier poll, taken six months before the high court overturned Roe v. Wade, 60% of Americans approved of the chief justice’s job performance.

Roberts’ 2021 job score set him apart from the Supreme Court at the time, which had just seen its approval rating decline to a record-low 40% amid some arguably unpopular decisions. By contrast, his current rating is much closer to the court’s, which remains near 40%.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is the only other leader measured in the new poll whose approval rating has fallen by double digits since December 2021. The decline in Powell’s approval from 53% to 43% likely reflects Americans’ holding him at least partially responsible for elevated inflation in recent years, which reached a 40-year high in 2022.

McConnell’s 27% approval rating is down from 34% two years ago. However, it is not the lowest Gallup has ever recorded for a congressional leader. While Gallup hasn’t tracked approval for every congressional leader, at least one, Newt Gingrich, garnered a lower rating -- 25% -- in 1997, when he was serving as House speaker.

McConnell’s recent seven-percentage-point slide since December 2021 exceeds the 44% to 41% decline for Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer.

The approval ratings of other key federal government leaders -- Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Attorney General Merrick Garland -- have also dipped modestly since 2021, each down by three to five points.

New House Leaders’ Ratings on Par With 2021 Predecessors’ Ratings

Republican Speaker Johnson has held the position for only two months, but his 40% approval rating is identical to what former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, a Democrat, received in December 2021. Gallup did not obtain an approval rating on Johnson’s immediate processor, Republican Kevin McCarthy, during his nine months as speaker in 2023.

Meanwhile, Jeffries’ 46% approval rating as House minority leader matches McCarthy’s rating when he held this position two years ago.

Democrats More Content Than Republicans With Own Party’s Leaders

As expected, strong partisan differences are seen in the approval ratings of the 10 leaders measured in the new poll. Specifically, Republicans are more approving than Democrats of the two Republican congressional leaders, Johnson and McConnell, while Democrats are more approving of Democratic leaders Schumer and Jeffries. However, Democrats’ level of support for their own party’s leaders is substantially higher than Republicans’ is for theirs.

80% of Democrats approve of Jeffries’ job performance, and 76% approve of Schumer’s.
61% of Republicans approve of Johnson and only 36% of McConnell.

The greatest partisan differences -- exceeding 70 points -- are seen in Democrats’ and Republicans’ ratings of Biden and Harris, while there is a 67-point gap between their approval of Schumer.

The slimmest partisan gaps are for McConnell (17 points) and Roberts (18 points).

The downturn in Roberts’ approval is owed equally to Democrats and independents, among whom his rating has declined by 15 to 16 points since 2021. He receives less-than majority approval from both groups as a result -- 40% from Democrats and 48% from independents. By contrast, he has maintained majority approval from Republicans, currently at 58%.

The trend in support for Powell shows his decline is entirely due to fewer political independents approving, falling from 55% to 39%. Meanwhile, more than six in 10 Democrats continue to approve (currently 63%) versus only about half as many Republicans (29%).

Bottom Line

Unlike two years ago, when at least Chief Justice Roberts was a somewhat unifying force, no leader today in the White House, Congress or Supreme Court has majority job approval from Americans or comes close to receiving bipartisan support. Aside from Mitch McConnell, who lacks solid support from any party group, today’s leaders can merely count on their own partisan group to approve of how they are handling their job, while the opposing party (and, for the most part, independents) are more likely to disapprove than approve.

One good thing that can be said of these ratings is that Americans evaluate Roberts and top congressional leaders better than the institutions they lead. Most recently, 41% approve of the Supreme Court and 15% of Congress. It’s evidently not the leaders per se who are dragging these numbers down but perceptions about the broader membership, how the institutions operate or how they have responded to issues they are tasked to address.

(Gallup)

04 January 2024

Source: https://news.gallup.com/poll/547997/no-top-government-official-earns-majority-job-approval.aspx

826-828-43-11/Polls

Record Low In U.S. Satisfied With Way Democracy Is Working

A new low of 28% of U.S. adults are satisfied with the way democracy is working in the country. The current figure is down from the prior low -- 35% measured shortly after the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol by rioters trying to prevent Congress from certifying Joe Biden’s victory in the 2020 presidential election.

The latest results are based on a Dec. 1-20, 2023, survey.

However, Americans’ satisfaction showed signs of deterioration in 1992 -- often referred to as the year of the “angry voter” -- in the wake of an economic recession and congressional scandals exemplified by members writing scores of bad checks from the House bank. By June 1992, when insurgent third-party candidate Ross Perot led presidential preference polls, 36% of Americans were satisfied with the way democracy was working. Later that year, incumbent President George H.W. Bush was defeated for reelection, and the reelection rate for members of the U.S. House was one of the lowest in the past 50 years.

American satisfaction rebounded in 1994-1998 surveys, including 52% satisfied in 1998 after the U.S. House of Representatives voted to impeach then-President Bill Clinton. The increase may have reflected greater satisfaction with the way things were going in the country, generally, during a period of strong economic growth.

Gallup did not ask the question again until 2021, though two CNN surveys from 2010 and 2016 each showed 40% satisfaction ratings. These results suggest Americans in the 2010s were once again disillusioned with the way democracy was working, perhaps due to continued gridlock in Washington amid growing budget deficits, ongoing gun violence, racial tensions and illegal immigration.

The more recent declines of the past two years (to varying degrees for different partisan groups) may reflect economic unease amid higher prices, disapproval of the jobs President Joe Biden, Congress and the Supreme Court are doing, increasing hostility between the political parties, former President Donald Trump’s persistent political strength, and concerns about election security, voting rights and the independence of the courts and the justice system.

Republicans Least Satisfied With Democracy

Among major U.S. subgroups, Republicans (17%) are least likely to say they are satisfied with the state of democracy, and Democrats (38%) are most likely. Political independents fall about midway between the two party groups, at 27% satisfaction.

All three party groups are less satisfied now than they were in 2021, when 47% of Democrats, 21% of Republicans and 36% of independents were satisfied shortly after Biden took office.

Typically, partisans have been more satisfied with the way democracy is working when a president from their preferred party has been in office. Between 1984 and 1992, spanning the Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush administrations, Republicans expressed greater satisfaction than Democrats in each of the four surveys conducted.

All of the more recent surveys have been conducted in years when a Democratic president was in the White House. Democrats have been more satisfied than Republicans in all of those except one: the 1998 survey conducted after the Republican-led House impeached Clinton.

Satisfaction with democracy also differs sharply by education. Americans with postgraduate education tie Democrats as the subgroup most likely to be satisfied, at 38%. Meanwhile, roughly three in 10 adults who attended college, but not graduate school, are satisfied, and 21% of those who did not attend college are.

Americans without a college education show the steepest decline in satisfaction since 2021 among key subgroups, dropping 15 percentage points from 36%.

In past surveys, Americans with no college education have typically been the least satisfied with U.S. democracy.

Bottom Line

Americans are preparing to elect the next president at a time when they are less happy about the state of U.S. democracy than at any point in at least 40 years. The 2024 election is expected to match a historically unpopular incumbent president with a former president whom voters previously rejected for a second term. While conditions seem ripe for a successful third-party challenger, it remains unclear whether such a candidate can win within the U.S. electoral system.

(Gallup)

05 January 2024

Source: https://news.gallup.com/poll/548120/record-low-satisfied-democracy-working.aspx

826-828-43-12/Polls

Fewer Young Men Are In College, Especially At 4-Year Schools

Most of the decline is due to fewer young men pursuing college. About 1 million fewer young men are in college but only 0.2 million fewer young women. As a result, men make up 44% of young college students today, down from 47% in 2011, according to newly released U.S. Census Bureau data.

This shift is driven entirely by the falling share of men who are students at four-year colleges. Today, men represent only 42% of students ages 18 to 24 at four-year schools, down from 47% in 2011.

At two-year colleges, which are largely community colleges, the drop in enrollment has been similar for men and women, so the gender balance has not changed much. Men represent 49% of students ages 18 to 24, up slightly from 48% in 2011.

The decline in young college enrollment since 2011 is not driven by a drop in the overall number of 18- to 24-year-old high school graduates. That number has modestly increased since 2011.

Instead, the falling share of young high school graduates who are enrolling in college is causing the decline. And the drop has been greater among young men than women.

Today, only 39% of young men who have completed high school are enrolled in college, down from 47% in 2011. The rate at which young female high school graduates enroll has also fallen, but not by nearly as much (from 52% to 48%).

By race and ethnicity, the widening of the gender gap in college enrollment is most apparent among White high school graduates. Young White women who have finished high school are now 10 percentage points more likely to be enrolled in college than similar men. In 2011, the difference was only 4 points.

A 2021 Pew Research Center survey found that the reasons people give for not finishing college differ by gender.

Among adults who did not have a bachelor’s degree and weren’t enrolled in college, men were more likely than women to say they didn’t go to college because they just didn’t want to or because they didn’t feel they needed more education for the type of job they wanted.

But men and women were about equally likely to say that not being able to afford a four-year degree was a major reason why they hadn’t completed college.

(PEW)

18 December 2023

Source: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/12/18/fewer-young-men-are-in-college-especially-at-4-year-schools/

826-828-43-13/Polls

A Majority Of Americans Have A Friend Of A Different Religion

It’s common for Americans to have friends of a different religion than their own.

Overall, about four-in-ten U.S. adults (37%) say that all or most of their friends have the same religion they do. But about six-in-ten (61%) report having at least some friends whose religion differs from their own, according to a December 2022 Pew Research Center survey. That includes 43% who say only some of their friends have the same religion they do and another 18% who say hardly any or none of their friends do.

Americans’ friend groups tend to be more alike in ways other than their religious composition. Broad majorities of Americans with at least one close friend say all or most of their close friends are the same gender as they are (66%) and the same race or ethnicity (63%), a separate survey from July 2023 found.

Still, some demographic groups stand out for having greater religious diversity among their friends.

Men, younger adults and those with less education are slightly more likely than other Americans to say hardly any or none of their friends share their religion. For example, 20% of U.S. adults with a high school diploma or less education say hardly any or none of their friends have the same religion they do, compared with 14% of those whose highest level of education is a bachelor’s degree.

Differences by religious identity

Particularly large shares of “nones” – those who identify religiously as atheist, agnostic or “nothing in particular” – report having friends whose religious identities differ from their own. About four-in-ten (39%) in this group say only some of their friends have the same religion they do, while another 32% say hardly any or none of them do.

Other groups, in turn, are more likely to have religiously similar friend circles. Members of historically Black Protestant churches (59%) and Hispanic Catholics (54%), for example, are among the most likely of all Christian groups analyzed to say all or most of their friends have the same religion they do. This includes 13% of those in the historically Black Protestant tradition who say all of their friends share their religion. (There are not enough respondents from smaller U.S. religious groups, such as Muslims and Jews, to report on their answers separately.)

It’s important to note that how Americans define religious belonging may vary. For example, it’s unclear whether all Christian respondents would consider a friend from a different Christian denomination as having “the same religion” as they do, or whether atheists would consider agnosticism the same religion – or a religion at all, for that matter. These findings only reflect Americans’ self-perceptions of their religion and others’ connections to it.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, Americans who highly value religion are much more likely to have friendship circles where most people are from their own religious tradition. More than four-in-ten U.S. adults who say religion is very or somewhat important in their lives (44%) say all or most of their friends have the same religion they do. Just a quarter of those who say religion is not too or not at all important in their lives report the same.

Talking about religion with others

While it’s common for Americans to befriend people from different faiths, most do not discuss religion with others very frequently, according to a separate survey conducted in spring 2019.

Only about three-in-ten U.S. adults (31%) said in 2019 that they talk about religion with others outside their family once or twice a month or more often.

In the same survey, 62% of U.S. adults said that when someone disagrees with them about religion, it’s best to try to understand the person’s belief and agree to disagree. A third said it’s better to avoid discussing religion with the person, while just 4% said it’s best to try to persuade the other person to change their mind.

(PEW)

19 December 2023

Source: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/12/19/a-majority-of-americans-have-a-friend-of-a-different-religion/

826-828-43-14/Polls

Black Americans Are More Likely Than Others To Say They See Problematic News Coverage Of Black People

A horizontal stacked bar chart showing that Black adults are more likely than others to report seeing racist news coverage of Black people.

But other racial and ethnic groups are less likely to say they often see racially problematic coverage of Black people, according to a separate Center survey of U.S. adults.

Among White Americans, 21% report seeing this kind of coverage extremely or fairly often, while an additional 30% see it sometimes. And about three-in-ten Asian (30%) and Hispanic (27%) adults say they often see racist coverage of Black people.

The combined share of respondents who see this kind of coverage at least sometimes is nearly 30 percentage points higher for Black respondents than for White respondents (80% vs. 51%). Asian (65%) and Hispanic (63%) respondents fall in the middle, lower than the share among Black adults but higher than that of White adults.

There are also political differences on this question: Among U.S. adults overall, Democrats and independents who lean Democratic are more likely than Republicans and GOP leaners to say they see or hear racist or racially insensitive news coverage about Black people. About three-quarters of Democrats (74%) say they see or hear this kind of coverage at least sometimes, compared with 43% of Republicans.

This partisan divide appears within racial and ethnic groups as well. White and Hispanic Democrats are much more likely than their Republican counterparts to say they at least sometimes see this kind of coverage. Black Democrats are also more likely than Black Republicans to say this, but the gap is much smaller. Majorities of Black adults in both parties say they see racist or racially insensitive coverage at least sometimes. (There were not enough Asian adults in our sample to look at their views by political party.)

Do people want their news providers to share their politics, race or other traits?

Majorities of Americans across racial and ethnic groups say it’s not important that the news they get comes from journalists or reporters who share their political opinions, religious views or demographic traits. For example, 60% of U.S. adults say it is not too or not at all important that the journalists they get news from share their political views. Only 11% say this is extremely or very important, while 28% say it is somewhat important.

Even smaller shares of Americans say it’s highly important that journalists:

Share their religious views (7%)
Talk or sound like them (6%)
Are the same race or ethnicity as them (5%)
Are around their age (4%)
Are the same gender as them (3%)

However, on almost all of these traits, Black Americans are more likely than other groups to want their news to come from journalists who are similar to them. For instance, 41% of Black adults say it’s at least somewhat important that they get news from journalists of the same race or ethnicity as them. That compares with just 5% of White Americans, 20% of Asian Americans and 25% of Hispanic Americans. The only exception is sharing political views, where Black Americans are on par with other groups. (Read the Appendix for more in-depth data on how different racial and ethnic groups answered these questions.)

Still, a majority of Black Americans (58%) say it’s not too or not at all important that they get news from Black journalists. Instead, Black Americans mention several other factors as at least somewhat important in deciding whether a news story is trustworthy, such as the sources cited in the story and whether it is reported by multiple outlets.

Among Black Americans, those who say they often see racist or racially insensitive news about Black people are more likely to say it’s important that journalists have various characteristics in common with them. In other words, Black Americans who say they see racially problematic coverage are more likely to care about the attributes of the journalists who are producing their news.

For example, half of Black Americans who often see racially problematic news say it’s at least somewhat important that the news they get comes from journalists who share their race or ethnicity. This view is shared by only a quarter of those who say they rarely or never see racist news.

(PEW)

22 December 2023

Source: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/12/22/black-americans-are-more-likely-than-others-to-say-they-see-problematic-news-coverage-of-black-people/

826-828-43-15/Polls

2023 Saw Some Of The Biggest, Hardest-Fought Labor Disputes In Recent Decades

By the time the strike by the Screen Actors Guild-American Federation of Television and Radio Artists (SAG-AFTRA) ended on Nov. 8, it had idled 160,000 workers for 82 workdays. That resulted in 13,120,000 “days idle,” a metric that the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) uses to describe the impact of work stoppages.

Since 1993, when the BLS began keeping detailed monthly statistics on major work stoppages, the only labor dispute to have a greater impact was a strike over actors’ pay for appearing in commercials by the then-separate SAG and AFTRA in 2000. (The two unions merged in 2012.) That strike, against the American Association of Advertising Agencies and the Association of National Advertisers, lasted nearly six months, resulting in 17.3 million days idle and, reportedly, considerable bitterness and division among union members.

Beyond the SAG-AFTRA strike, 2023 was the most active year overall for major labor disputes in more than two decades, according to our analysis of BLS data on major work stoppages. The BLS defines major stoppages as those involving 1,000 or more workers and lasting at least one full shift during the Monday-Friday work week.

Through the end of November, 30 major stoppages had begun in 2023 – the most of any year since 2000. The 2023 stoppages involved a total of 464,410 workers, the second-most since 1986. And several of last year’s stoppages lasted long enough to generate 16.7 million total days idle, more than any year since 2000.

Besides the SAG-AFTRA strike, other significant stoppages last year included:

The Writers Guild strike against the same group of production companies (11,500 workers idled for 102 workdays; 1,173,000 days idle)
The United Auto Workers strike against Ford, General Motors, Mack Trucks and Stellantis (53,700 workers, 43 workdays, 925,900 days idle)
A strike by a coalition of unions against health care company Kaiser Permanente (75,600 workers, three workdays, 226,800 days idle)

While 2023 stands out against the past few decades for its labor strife, it appears less turbulent if one goes back further in U.S. history.

From 1947, the earliest year for which the BLS provides comparable annual data on major work stoppages, through the 1970s, the U.S. routinely experienced hundreds of stoppages a year. Hundreds of thousands or even millions of workers were involved.

The peak was arguably in 1952, when there were 470 major work stoppages involving more than 2.7 million workers. Those stoppages created 48.8 million days idle, the third-most on record. (The top year for days idle was 1959, with 60.9 million, but there were fewer major stoppages that year and fewer workers were involved.)

Whether measured by raw numbers, workers involved or days idle, major work stoppages generally became less common after about 1980 – though not without occasional upsurges. The U.S. economy grew away from its heavily unionized manufacturing sectors, and the federal government under then-President Ronald Reagan turned hostile to organized labor. In 2009, for instance, only five major work stoppages took place, involving a total of just 12,500 workers.

In more recent years, relatively few major stoppages have occurred in traditional manufacturing sectors. From January 2018 through November 2023, just 13 out of 122 major stoppages (11%) involved manufacturing. That compares with 77 out of 176 (44%) between 1993 and 1997.

Instead, major work stoppages in recent years have tended to occurr in two service sectors: education and health care. Nearly two-thirds (65%, or 79 out of 122) of all major stoppages that began between January 2018 and November 2023 were in those two sectors.

The information sector has also seen notable labor actions in recent years. For instance, before the SAG-AFTRA strikes, there was a six-week strike against Verizon in 2016 (36,500 workers involved, 1.2 million days idle) and a strike by 1,800 electrical workers against cable-television giant Charter Communications that started in 2017 and lasted over five years.

(PEW)

04 January 2024

Source: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/01/04/2023-saw-some-of-the-biggest-hardest-fought-labor-disputes-in-recent-decades/

826-828-43-16/Polls

In Canada, Vast Majority Agree Both Anti-Semitism & Anti-Muslim Views Are Problems; Less Consensus Over Severity

As has been the case in countries around the world, the war in Gaza between Israel and Hamas is driving domestic tensions in Canada. Since Oct. 7, reports of anti-Semitism have risen starkly in Canada. The Jewish community has faced threats including an alleged terrorism plot in Ottawa which resulted in charges against a teenager. The same is true of Islamophobic incidents, which have “skyrocketed” in recent months according to the National Council of Canadian Muslims.

However, there are varying perceptions of the severity of the problem both anti-Semitism and anti-Muslim attitudes pose. Canadians older than 54 are much more likely to view anti-Semitism as a major problem (34%) than those younger than 35 (22%). The inverse is true of anti-Muslim discrimination – more Canadians aged 18- to 34-years-old view it as a significant problem requiring serious attention (26%) than those older than 54 (21%).

Most (75%) Canadian Jews see anti-Semitism as a major problem. However, Canadian Muslims place less emphasis on it, with half in that group saying it either is a minor problem (17%) or not really a problem at all in Canada (32%). Asked about the reverse, 48 per cent of Muslims perceive anti-Muslim discrimination as a major problem and 26 per cent of Jews agree. Few Jews describe anti-Muslim hatred as a minor problem (15%) or not one at all (4%).

INDEX

Part One: Both anti-Semitism and anti-Muslim sentiment viewed as problems in Canada

Just one-in-10 don’t see a problem
Perceptions of Islamophobia and anti-Semitism by religion

Part Two: Canadians growing more critical of religion’s impact on society

Part One: Both anti-Semitism and anti-Muslim sentiment viewed as problems in Canada

Just one-in-10 don’t see a problem

The conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza has led to heightened domestic tensions around the world and in Canada, where there have been regular protests since the war erupted in October. It has also borne witness to a rise in anti-Semitic attacks and graffiti. RCMP also recently uncovered a plot targeting the Jewish community which led to one Ottawa teenager being charged with terrorism.

The Toronto Police Service expanded its hate crime team from six to 32 officers after it reported an increase in both Islamophobic and Anti-Semitic hate crimes since the war began Oct. 7. The National Council of Muslims says it recorded a 13-fold increase in anti-Islamic hate crimes and intimidation over a similar period of time.

Few Canadians dismiss either anti-Semitism or anti-Muslim hatred. But there is less consensus over the respective severity of each issue.

One-in-seven (14%) view anti-Islamic attitudes as a minor problem, while half (53%) see it as a problem but one among many in Canada. One-in-five (22%) view anti-Muslim attitudes as a major problem that needs to be addressed.

Canadians’ assessments of the severity of anti-Semitism in Canada are similar, though they are slightly more likely to describe it as a major concern (26% vs. 22%):

Older respondents are much more likely than younger ones to view anti-Semitism as a major problem in Canada. One-in-five (19%) 18- to 34-year-old men believe anti-Semitism isn’t really an issue for the country, the most of any demographic:

Women are much more likely than men to view anti-Muslim attitudes as a major problem in Canada. One-third (32%) of 18- to 34-year-old women believe it to be a significant issue, the highest proportion of any demographic:

Perceptions of Islamophobia and anti-Semitism by religion

Canadians’ perspectives on Islamophobia and anti-Semitism vary by their religious identity. Half (48%) of respondents who self-identified as Muslims in this survey view anti-Muslim attitudes as a serious problem. One-quarter (26%) of Jews agree, but more view it as a problem of less urgency.

Note, religious sample sizes are shown unweighted to better represent the number of interviews performed but are weighted to their proportion of the Canadian population in the general population total sample.

Anti-Semitism is much more likely to be seen as a major problem by respondents who self identified as Jews in this survey. Three-quarters (75%) say it requires serious attention. Muslims are less likely to see anti-Semitism as a serious concern, with one-third (32%) viewing it as not a problem at all:

Part Two: Canadians growing more critical of religion’s impact on society

In 2017, the Angus Reid Institute first asked Canadians how to assess the impact of religions in Canada’s public square. Half say the overall contributions are an even mix of good and bad. Those who felt faith communities contributed positively to Canadian society outnumbered those who felt contributions were more negative by more than two-to-one.

Six years later, Canadians are more critical of the impact of religion in Canada: the groups who believe the impact of religions are negative (26%) and those who believe they are a positive force (26%) are equal:

Those who identify as religious themselves are more likely to see the contributions of religious communities to be positive, though it varies. A majority of Muslims (60%) feel faith communities contribute more good to Canada than bad. For Canadian Jews, a majority feel religious contributions to society are mixed, but they are more likely to believe them to be a net positive than a net negative.

Perspectives on the contributions of religions are similar across Canada with one notable exception. Those in Quebec, a historically more secular province, are much more likely to view religious contributions to Canada as a net negative:

Canadians were asked to assess eight faith groups specifically and whether they felt those groups were benefitting or damaging to Canada and Canadian society (see the detailed tables for the full list of religious groups assessed). Views of religions were fairly static since ARI last asked these questions, with one notable exception. Canadians are now more likely to say Islam is damaging to Canadian society than they were in 2022. Now, more than two-in-five (43%) believe Islam to be a harmful presence to Canada, a figure triple the number who believe the religion to be a positive contributor:

(Angus Reid Institute)

20 December 2023

Source: https://angusreid.org/anti-semitism-anti-muslim-canada/

826-828-43-17/Polls

Two-In-Five Canadians Say They Had A Good Year Overall, While One-Quarter Say It Was More Negative Than Positive

As Canadians load their plates with post-Christmas leftovers and reflect on a year almost over, new data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds 2023 receiving mixed reviews.

Considering factors such as their health, happiness and financial situation two-in-five Canadians say the year was more good than bad for them, with one-third saying it was average, and one-quarter more negative than positive about the last 12 months.

On the financial wellbeing front, however, Canadians are – as they have expressed to ARI throughout the year – in a darker place.

While the majority say they’re satisfied with this aspect of life, fully two-in-five say they are not. More than half of those with household incomes lower than $50,000 join the latter group, who hope that 2024 will bring more prosperity.

Using an additive score, ARI created four groups along a Life Satisfaction Index. These include the Very Satisfied (24%), Satisfied (25%), Dissatisfied (28%) and Very Dissatisfied (23%). There are important variations in who comprises which of these groups.

Consider that among visible minorities in Canada, 65 per cent are either Dissatisfied or Very Dissatisfied overall. Comparatively, for non-visible minorities this proportion is a much smaller 48 per cent.

Those who have kids in their household are more also likely to be on the dissatisfied side of this equation as well (59%) compared to those without children (48%). Some of this is attributable to the role that income and age play in satisfaction with leisure, finances, and other aspects of life. Canadians over the age of 54 tend to be most satisfied with their lives, both men and women.

When it comes to Canadians’ mental health, one-in-three (32%) say they’re dissatisfied with how they feel currently. Young women are most likely to feel their mental health could be better – nearly half (45%) say this.

Comparing some of these data to responses from 2016 when the Angus Reid Institute last asked, there are notable trends. The first is that happiness levels have dropped slightly among the population. Seven years ago, before COVID-19 had spread about the globe and when the economic climate was more stable, four-in-five (79%) said they were either “very” or “pretty” happy. In 2023 that proportion has dropped to 70 per cent, with a nine-point increase in those saying they’re “not too happy” with their life.

The proportion satisfied with their stress levels has also dropped five points over this period, though there is one improvement worth noting. There has been a five-point increase in Canadians self-reported satisfaction with their love life, from 64 to 69 per cent.

What this leads to is a population divided in how they would describe their year. The two most chosen words are grateful (37%) and exhausting (37%). As one might expect, how Canadians describe their year largely depends on where they find themselves on the Life Satisfaction Index.

INDEX

Part One: Life satisfaction in 2023

Percentage saying they’re ‘happy’ has dropped
Love lives improve, finances steady, quality of life down
Older Canadians enjoy better mental health
Finances a challenge for lower-income earners

Part Two: The Life Satisfaction Index

Biggest factors in life satisfaction include age, income level, kids

Part Three: How Canadians describe their year

Part One: Life satisfaction in 2023

Percentage saying they’re ‘happy’ has dropped

As Canadians evaluate the positives and negatives from the year past, for many, the overall economic picture will have done much to sour memories of 2023. Inflation has been a persistent companion for Canadians since the beginning of 2022, leaving many with declining purchasing power and budgets increasingly devoted to the necessities of life – rent, mortgages, groceries – and less free to spend on other elements that perhaps would spark more joy.

Still, most Canadians find happiness in their lives. Seven-in-ten describe themselves as very (12%) or pretty (58%) happy. More than one-quarter (27%) are less pleased, saying they are “not too happy”.

The latter figure represents a growing sense of unhappiness among Canadians since the Angus Reid Institute last asked this question in 2016, a pandemic, a period of historic inflation and turmoil ago:

Older Canadians are much more likely to describe themselves as happy than their younger counterparts. This was true in 2016 and now, but there have been declines in professed happiness across all age groups. Seven years ago, men aged 35- to 54-years-old and women 18- to 34-years-old were the least likely to say they were generally happy. That’s still the case, but there is a larger gap between the former group and the latter now:

Love lives improve, finances steady, quality of life down

Canadians were asked to evaluate their satisfaction with nine elements of their life. A majority say they are satisfied with all nine, but the size of the majority varies from a low of 55 per cent who are satisfied with their stress levels and 57 per cent who are satisfied with their personal finances to 81 per cent who are satisfied with their relationships with close family and friends.

The latter has been a consistent source of satisfaction from Canadians since 2016. Other aspects of Canadians’ lives have seen decreasing satisfaction – overall quality of life, social life, leisure time, stress levels – while Canadians are more likely to express satisfaction with their love life than they were seven years ago. Finances have been a consistent source of discontent for many even prior to these latest economic challenges:

Older Canadians enjoy better mental health

Men and women offer different evaluations of their mental health. Women are more likely to report being dissatisfied than men, though the difference between the genders evaporates for Canadians older than 54. Older Canadians are the most likely group to say they are “very satisfied” when it comes to their mental health today. Some of this correlates to income level, as those who are older have a higher likelihood of financial security, home ownership, and other stabilizing lifestyle factors :

Finances a challenge for lower-income earners

After a difficult year for many Canadians’ finances more than two-in-five (44%) express dissatisfaction with their economic situation. However, financial unhappiness is much more common in lower income brackets than higher ones:

*Smaller sample size, interpret with caution

Part Two: The Life Satisfaction Index

To better encapsulate Canadians’ evaluations of their life as it stands to end 2023, the Angus Reid Institute created the Life Satisfaction Index, which uses a plus-minus scale to incorporate satisfaction across nine categories. Respondents receive two points if they’re “very satisfied” with an element of their life, one point if they’re “satisfied”, negative one point if they’re “dissatisfied” and negative two points if they’re “very dissatisfied”. Respondents are sorted into four groups based on these totals.

The four groups are near equal in size, with slightly more quantified as Dissatisfied (28%). These groups aren’t distributed equally across the country, however. There are more Very Satisfied in Saskatchewan (32%) than elsewhere, and fewer Very Dissatisfied (19%) in Quebec:

Biggest factors in life satisfaction include age, income level, kids

When it comes to life satisfaction, age is important. Older Canadians (55+) are more than twice as likely to be Very Satisfied according to the Life Satisfaction Index than younger ones. Two-in-five (40%) men older than 54 are found to be Very Satisfied, the most of any demographic.

The proportion of those in the top two categories of the index also rises, as one may suspect, with income level. Conversely, half (48%) of those living in households earning less than $25,000 annually are Very Dissatisfied (see detailed tables).

Canadians living with kids are less likely to express satisfaction than those without. This is especially true when it comes to their physical health (53% satisfied vs. kids not in household 62%), leisure time (57% vs. 73%) and finances (46% vs. 61%).

As well, Canadians who identify as visible minorities are more likely to be Very Dissatisfied with their life than others, especially when it comes to finances and physical health (see detailed tables). Previous ARI studies have found Canadians who identify as visible minorities more likely to struggle finding a family doctor. As well, visible minorities are more likely to report feeling discriminated based on their race or ethnicity, and less likely to say there has been progress at eradicating racism in Canada.

Related:

Part Three: How Canadians describe their year

Canadians were asked to describe how they feel about their past 12 months using a list of words, both positive and negative. Atop the list are two equally chosen words, one positive and one negative. Nearly two-in-five (37%) say they look back on 2023 feeling grateful, while the same number look back and feel exhausted. Three-in-ten say they it was an anxious year (28%), while a similar number say it was satisfying (26%):

There are generational and gender variations, with Canadians 18 to 54 years of age quite a bit more likely than their older peers to say this year was exhausting. The 35- to 54-year-old group, men and women alike, are more likely to say the year was frustrating, while women of all ages are more likely to voice anxiousness this year compared to their male peers:

Those individuals on the negative end of the Life Satisfaction Index describe the year in a way almost unrecognizable compared to the Very Satisfied. For the Very Dissatisfied, half say the year was exhausting (54%), anxious (48%), or depressing (47%):

For those on the other side of things in their appraisal of life in 2023, the year was primarily a Happy, and Satisfying one, leaving them feeling Grateful:

(Angus Reid Institute)

27 December 2023

Source: https://angusreid.org/canadian-life-satisfaction-optimism-pessimism-2023-lookback/

AUSTRALIA

826-828-43-18/Polls

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Up 1pt To 81.8 To End 2023 At Its Highest Since Early February 2023

Consumer Confidence has ended 2023 only 0.7pts below the same week a year ago, December 12-18, 2022 (82.5) and nearly 4 points above the 2023 weekly average of 78.0.

The 2023 weekly average of 78.0 is a record low for the index, below the previous record low of 82.6 in 1990 over 30 years ago.

There were mixed results around the States with Consumer Confidence up in New South Wales and South Australia, but down slightly in Victoria, Queensland, and Western Australia.

The drivers of this week’s increase related to slightly improved views on personal financial situations and the Australian economy’s performance over the next year.

Current financial conditions

Now a fifth of Australians, 20% (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to a slim majority of 51% (unchanged) that say their families are ‘worse off’.

Future financial conditions

Looking forward, over a third of Australians, 34% (up 3ppts), expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the highest figure for this indicator for over ten months since January 2023) while 33% (unchanged), expect to be ‘worse off’ (the lowest figure for this indicator for over ten months since January 2023).

Current economic conditions

A slightly increased 10% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months (incredibly, this is the highest figure for this indicator for over 18 months since May 2022 – just after the RBA first raised interest rates) compared to a third, 33% (down 3ppts), that expect ‘bad times’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since February 2023).

Future economic conditions

Net sentiment regarding the Australian economy in the longer term is down slightly this week with 12% (down 1ppt) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to a fifth, 20% (up 2ppts), expecting ‘bad times’.

Time to buy a major household item

Buying intentions were slightly improved this week with 21% (up 1ppt) of Australians saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items while a slim majority of 51% (down 2ppts), say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

ANZ Senior Economist, Adelaide Timbrell, commented:

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence edged higher but is still very weak compared to the long run average. The increase in confidence in recent weeks has been driven by outright homeowners and those paying off their homes, perhaps buoyed by rises in housing prices and the potential stabilisation of rates. Confidence about future finances has exceeded the neutral level for the second time since January 2023. There are limits to the overall increase in confidence though, as households continue to face the impacts of rapid inflation. Renter confidence has been trending down, perhaps due to low vacancy rates driving stronger rent growth, among other rapidly rising living costs.

(Roy Morgan)

19 December 2023

Source: https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9385-anz-roy-morgan-consumer-confidence-december-19

826-828-43-19/Polls

Inflation Expectations In Mid-December Are At 5.3% – Slightly Down From The Month Of November (5.4%)

A look at the monthly Inflation Expectations for November 2023 shows the measure at 5.4% for the month, an increase of 0.1% points on October 2023 (5.3%). In the month of November 2023 Australians expected inflation of 5.4% annually over the next two years. However, since November ended, Inflation Expectations have dropped slightly in the early weeks of December.

A driver of the decline is the drop in the retail price of petrol. See below for additional detail of the impact of petrol prices on Inflation Expectations. In addition, the latest information on weekly Inflation Expectations is available to view each week in the Roy Morgan Weekly Update video on YouTube.

Inflation Expectations are following a similar trend as the broader official inflation measure. The latest ABS monthly CPI estimate for October 2023 showed a decline at 4.9%, down 0.7% points from 5.6% in September 2023, although level with the recent low of 4.9% July 2023.

The lower-than-expected inflation reading for October prompted the RBA to leave interest rates unchanged at their final meeting for the year in early December.

Monthly Inflation Expectations Index long-term trend – Expected Annual Inflation in next 2 years

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source: Interviewing an average of 4,800 Australians aged 14+ per month (April 2010 – Nov. 2023).

Rapid petrol price declines in late November and early December ease inflation pressures

A leading factor driving the decrease in Inflation Expectations in recent weeks has been the declines in the retail petrol price – now at an average of $1.86 per litre in mid-December, down from over $2 per litre in late November.

However, despite the fall, average retail petrol prices in Australia have now been above $1.80 per litre for 23 straight weeks, the longest stretch at this high level ever recorded. The previous record stretch above $1.80 per litre was 13 weeks above this level earlier this year from February – July 2023.

Australian average retail petrol prices (cents per litre) weekly: 2021 – 2023

Source: Australian Institute of Petroleum (AIP) weekly reports: https://www.aip.com.au/pricing/weekly-prices-reports.

Inflation Expectations increased in Victoria, Western Australia and Tasmania in November

A look at Monthly Inflation Expectations on a State-based level shows increases in the States of Victoria, Western Australia and Tasmania driving the overall monthly increase.

Inflation Expectations in Victoria were up 0.2% points to 5.3% but were still the lowest of any State. There were also increases in Western Australia, up 0.3% points to 5.4% and Tasmania, up 0.3% points to 5.7% - and now the highest in the country.

Interestingly, Inflation Expectations in Queensland were unchanged at 5.6% and unchanged at 5.5% in New South Wales – with both States still slightly above the national average.

The only State to experience a decline in November was South Australia, down 0.3% points to 5.5%.

Inflation Expectations in Country Areas increased by 0.2% points to 5.6% in November and are again slightly higher than in the Capital Cities at 5.4%, up 0.1% points from a month ago.

Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says weekly Inflation Expectations were at 5.3% in mid-December, down from 5.4% in November and 5.6% in mid-November as average retail petrol prices dropped by 15 cents from over $2 per litre in mid-November to $1.86 last week:

“ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations in Australia have dropped in recent weeks and are now at 5.3% in mid-December, down from 5.4% for the month of November. Inflation Expectations reached a weekly high of 5.7% in mid-October 2023 and have trended lower over the last two months as petrol prices have fallen.

“Average retail petrol prices peaked at $2.11 per litre in October, and soon after that Inflation Expectations reached a weekly high of 5.7%. Since then, petrol prices have declined – down by around 25 cents per litre, and Inflation Expectations have also eased.

“Nevertheless, petrol prices have now been above $1.80 per litre for 23 straight weeks since mid-July – almost double the previous record of 13 weeks in a row achieved earlier this year. During this period petrol prices have averaged $1.98 per litre although have dropped more than 10 cents per litre below this level in the last two weeks.

“The reduction in inflationary pressures in the economy was recognised by the RBA at its final meeting of the year in early December. The RBA interest rate setting board decided to leave interest rates unchanged at a 12-year high of 4.35% and doesn’t meet again until early February.

“The meeting in February will come after the monthly and quarterly inflation figures for December 2023 are released at the end of January. Until then, the weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations indicator will show how Australians view inflation in the economy and what their believe will happen to prices in the Australian economy during 2024 and 2025.”

(Roy Morgan)

19 December 2023

Source: https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9412-australian-inflation-expectations-november-2023

MULTICOUNTRY STUDIES

826-828-43-20/Polls

A Gap Continues Between Climate Efforts And People’s Concerns For The Environment, A Study Across 12 MENA Countries

While the steps taken at COP28 may prove important in the fight against climate change, ordinary citizens living in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) likely do not perceive that they are tackling the environmental issues they see as most important. In its Seventh Wave of surveys (2021-2022), Arab Barometer asked the people in 12 countries across the region about their views regarding the environment and climate change. Only a small minority names climate change as the most important environmental challenge facing their country. By contrast, water-related issues, including lack of water resources or pollution, top the list of environmental challenges faced by MENA countries. At least a third of the population in all countries surveyed say that water-related issues are their country’s most pressing environmental challenge. While water shortages may be linked with climate change, organizers may have missed an opportunity to raise awareness for those living in the region by not proposing clearer solutions to the day-to-day challenges faced by citizens.

There is widespread agreement across the region that lack of citizen awareness contributes to the existing environmental challenges. But the burden is not on citizens alone. Similar levels of agreement exist on government responsibility. The majority of people in all countries surveyed say that lack of governmental initiatives and spending contributes to environmental issues. It is, therefore, no surprise that pluralities, at least, in all countries surveyed say that their governments should be doing more to address climate change.

While citizens want more government action in addressing climate change, other immediate issues take precedence. When asked about their government spending priorities in the upcoming year, only small minorities in each country surveyed point to the environment. Education, healthcare, and economic development are higher than the environment on the short-term priorities list.

The COP28 summit set up the Loss and Damage Fund that was agreed on during the COP27 summit in Egypt last year. The fund is supposed to be a mechanism for poorer countries coping with the consequences of climate change to hold wealthy, polluting countries responsible for the destruction they have caused to the environment. This destruction has been estimated to be more than $400 billion per year in the developing world with the bill expected to grow even more in the coming years based on the current trajectory.

Only a small percentage (less than 2 percent) of needed funds has been raised so far, however. Also, details on the pledged funds are yet to be disclosed, furthering criticism of developed countries’ commitment and the summit’s actual achievements. In any case, if the Loss and Damage Fund succeeds in raising the required amount, it could provide governments in the region with the necessary resources to allocate more money for climate action programs.

Without such resources, it is very likely that governments across MENA would remain focused on the most imminent challenges to the livelihoods of their people, lacking in the process any funds to spare for addressing climate change.

While the COP28 summit made important progress, as outlined in the Global Stocktake, what has been accomplished so far still lags behind the concerns and demands of people across the region. To ensure citizens are not left behind, it is essential for future conference organizers and environmental activists to clearly demonstrate the link between climate change more broadly and the day-to-day environmental issues being faced by those in the region.

(Arabbarometer)

19 December 2023

Source: https://www.arabbarometer.org/2023/12/a-gap-continues-between-climate-efforts-and-peoples-concerns-for-the-environment/

826-828-43-21/Polls

Israel-Palestine: Fundamental Attitudes To The Conflict Among Western Europeans, A 7 Nation Study

Do Europeans feel they understand each sides’ motivations, and do they see their actions as justified?

The survey was conducted in mid-November, prior to the temporary ceasefire, except in Germany, where fieldwork took place in early December.

Where do sympathies lie?

In no country does any side get greater than three in ten people saying they are more sympathetic to that faction’s plight.

Spain proves to be the most pro-Palestinian country, with 27% sympathising with that side more compared to 19% for Israel.

Do Western Europeans think they understand the attitudes of Israelis and Palestinians towards the conflict?

In Britain, France, Denmark and Sweden the public tend to say they can understand the motivations of each side, even if they don’t agree with them – and to about the same extent for each side.

Italians are somewhat divided for both sides of the conflict, being split 34% to 32% on the Palestinian attitudes and by 36% to 29% for Israeli views.

Do Western Europeans think the actions by Hamas and Israel are justified?

Attitudes on ending the conflict, short- and long-term

At that time, between 8% and 24% thought that Israel should continue to fight.

While many may find Hamas unpalatable, most do believe that Israel should be willing to enter into peace negotiations with Israel (58-73%). Between 12-23% think Israel should refuse to do so.

More still in each country say that Hamas should likewise be prepared to enter into negotiations with Israel (66-83%), with 4-11% disagreeing.

An alternative ‘one state solution’ – a single nation that would be home to both Jews and Palestinians – receives far less support, at 20-30%.

Dramatic maximalist positions which would see one side or the other expelled from the region receive little support in any country, at 5-13%.

The most likely outcome for the time being – the status quo – is satisfactory to very few, with only 8-14% saying they would support things remaining as they are.

Human shields and collateral damage

Most people in every country surveyed say they believe Hamas uses civilians as human shields (59-69%). Just 9-13% do not believe Hamas employs such tactics.

(YouGov UK)

20 December 2023

Source: https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/48218-israel-palestine-fundamental-attitudes-to-the-conflict-among-western-europeans

826-828-43-22/Polls

Data Dive: 2023 In Review, A Survey In 33 Countries

Living through 2023 felt like riding a rollercoaster.

There were some exhilarating highs over the past year with the World Health Organization finally(!) declaring an end to COVID-19 as a global health emergency and red-hot prices cooling slightly in several countries. And there were some really sad lows, namely the start of the Israel-Hamas war and the continuation of the invasion of Ukraine.

2023 was also filled with record-breaking heat and fear-inducing reports about the impact artificial intelligence (AI) might have on all our lives in the years ahead. We, of course, polled people everywhere from Australia to the United States of America on all these timely topics and much more.

Here’s a look, month by month, at select Ipsos Global Advisor polls that show how people were feeling in a year that started with crushing anxiety about the cost-of-living crisis and ended with people being a bit less squeezed but still hurting from high prices.

January 2023: Really feeling the pinch
As 2023 dawned, inflation was the No. 1 issue in the world for the 10th month in a row, as 40% (on average across 29 countries) said the cost of living was a key concern for their country — well up from 20% a year earlier.

At the same time, concern about COVID-19 was fading away, as 13% said the pandemic was a top concern at the start of 2023 versus 35% who said the same at the start of 2022.

February 2023: Love was in the air
For Valentine’s Day, Ipsos rolled out a survey revealing how satisfied people across 32 countries were with everything from their relationship with their spouse/partner to their romantic/sex life.

One stat to warm your heart? Our polling finds the vast majority of people (84% on average globally) who are coupled up said they’re satisfied with their relationship with their spouse/partner.

March 2023: Men on women’s issues
Ipsos’ annual polling for International Women’s Day found the majority (68% on average across 32 countries) agreed there’s inequality between men and women in terms of social, political, and/or economic rights in their country.

Yet, a deeper dive revealed 55% of men (on average globally) believed the fight for women’s equality has gone so far it’s actually led to men being discriminated against.

April 2023: Our collective cross to bear
Ipsos’ annual Earth Day polling found most believed businesses, government and individuals all have a responsibility to take action on climate change.

May 2023: Still feeling the pinch
As spring wound down in the Northern Hemisphere, we reported on just how much people around the globe were hurting as the cost-living-crisis ground on.

The eye-opening fourth wave of the Ipsos Global Inflation Monitor found 28%, on average across 29 countries, said they were finding it quite/very difficult to get by. Argentinians, in particular, were having a tough year as inflation soared into the stratosphere in the Latin American country.

June 2023: Waving the rainbow flag
As the world celebrated Pride Month, Ipsos released new global polling revealing that Generation Zers are significantly more likely than older generations to identify as part of the LGBTQ2S+ community.

July 2023: The robots are coming … to take our jobs?
Everyone was chatting about ChatGPT, as well as AI more generally, this year and so were we. Our global polling about a range of AI issues found people were pretty nervous AI will either change or wipe out their job in the near-ish future.

August 2023: A highly political and personal issue
As summer wound down in the Northern Hemisphere we rolled out our annual global polling on abortion. A closer look at the data found older women, on average globally, are the most supportive of abortion being legal and younger men are the least supportive.

September 2023: The future is now
With many kids, teens and young adults returning to classrooms around the world, we introduced our first-ever Ipsos Global Education Monitor.

We continued asking about worries related to technology and AI, this time taking the temperature on a hot topic — whether AI should be banned in schools and found almost half of parents with kids in school (on average globally) didn’t think the nascent tech should be banned.

October 2023: Mental health is health
For World Mental Healthy Day, we released our annual mental health survey and found many of us are capital “S” stressed these days and finding it hard to cope amid such tough times (a.k.a. the polycrisis).

November 2023: Climate anxiety grows
During a year that the United Nations now says will go down in the history books as the hottest year ever recorded, it’s little surprise there’s been an increase in worry about natural disasters as floods and fires related to climate change become more common around the world.

Ipsos’ annual global polling for the Halifax Security Forum found the proportion of people who feel a major natural disaster taking place in their country is a somewhat/very real threat rose to a global country average of 70% in 2023, up from 66% in 2022 and 58% in 2015.

December 2023: Sticky inflation sticks around
As 2023 wound down, the fifth wave of the Ipsos Global Inflation Monitor found many people were still struggling financially, though feeling a tad better year-over-year.

And shoppers, in particular, weren’t feeling great about seeing some products shrink as prices stayed the same price (a.k.a. shrinkflation). While some understood companies getting *ahem* creative to balance the books almost half, 48% on average across 33 countries, said shrinkflation is unacceptable.

(Ipsos Global)

20 December 2023

Source: https://www.ipsos.com/en/data-dive-2023-review

826-828-43-23/Polls

Gallup International Association “End Of Year” Global Polling Tradition, A Survey Conducted In 42 Countries

The End of Year Survey by Gallup International Association was conducted in 42 countries, including Pakistan, with a sample of 40,428. This survey is a tradition that the association has been upholding since 1978. It is the largest survey of this nature done by independent pollsters including pollsters from Pakistan i.e. Gallup Pakistan. These are some of the key findings of End of Year Gallup International Association (GIA) traditional survey: 1. More people optimistic (41%) than pessimistic (36%) about Pakistan’s future. 2. Compared to last year, hope for the future has decreased by 19%. 3. Compared to the regional countries participating in the survey, including India. Afghanistan and Iran, Pakistan comes second in terms of optimism for the upcoming year. a. Hopes for 2024 for Pakistan: 41% hopeful 2024 will be a good year When Pakistani respondents were asked “As far as you are concerned, do you think that 2024 will be better, worse or the same as 2023?”, 41% of them were hopeful that 2024 would be a better year than 2023, while only 36% thought it would be worse. According to 14% of them, 2024 would be the same at 2023.

Compared to last year, when 60% Pakistanis thought 2023 would be a better year than 2022, 19% fewer respondents have the same opinion about 2024. 16% more Pakistanis think 2024 would be a worse year compared to 2023, than those who thought 2023 would be worse than 2022.

b. Comparison of Pakistan’s hope with regional countries: Pakistan in second place after India A snapshot of results from the South-Asia reveals that Pakistani respondents were the second most optimistic, the first being those from India, where 63% thought that 2024 would be better than 2023. Following Pakistan were Afghanistan and Iran, where 39% and 32%, respectively, thought the next year would turn out better than the current one.

c. Net hope score: Pakistan lacking behind regional countries and global average The net hope score, which is calculated by subtracting the optimists from the pessimists, revealed that while 41% Pakistanis thought 2024 would be better than 2023, the 36% who thought it would be worse resulted in Pakistan having the lowest net score in South Asia. The net score for Pakistan was +5, followed by +6 for Iran. Both of these are lower than the global average of +13. Afghanistan and India, with net scores of +47 each, show a lot higher optimism and lower pessimism compared to the rest of the world.

d. Comparison with India over the years The Gallup Pakistan Digital Analytics website hosts the responses to the same question asked over the period of 1977-2021. When participants were asked, “As far as you are concerned, do you think that next year will be better, worse or the same as the current year?”, almost 43% Pakistani and 54% Indian respondents thought 2022 would be better than 2021. Apart from the late 90s, where there were most optimist Pakistanis than Indians, the proportion of Indians who thought the upcoming year would be better than the last, has been higher.

e. Gender-wise hope comparison over the years Within Pakistan, males have generally remained more hopeful for the upcoming years compared to females. 43% females thought 2021 would be a better year compared to 2020, while 50% males expressed this opinion. Only in 2016 and 2018 did female optimism reach higher than male.

f. Comparison by lowest income quintile over the years Comparing the optimism of Pakistan’s lowest income quintile in 2020 with that of India, United States and United Kingdom reveals that after the UK (36%), Pakistan low-income quintile was the least optimistic about the next year (41%). India was the highest at 83%, followed by the US at 50%.

(Gallup Pakistan)

01 January 2024

Source: https://gallup.com.pk/wp/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Gallup-Pakistan-End-of-Year-Survey.pdf