BUSINESS & POLITICS IN THE WORLD

 

GLOBAL OPINION REPORT NO. 822-825

 

 

Week: November 20 – December 17, 2023

 

Presentation: December 22, 2023

 

 

Contents

 

822-825-43-30/Commentary: More Than Two In Five Britons Worry About How Much Christmas Is Going To Cost 3

ASIA   12

16% Prefer Koizumi As Prime Minister; 36% Choose ‘No One’ 12

Nearly Three Quarters (74%) Of Pakistanis Think That The Environment For Working Women Is Less Supportive As Compared To Working Men. 13

Overall, 8 In 10 People In Pakistan Are Concerned About Impacts Of Climate Change. 14

AFRICA.. 15

South Africans Want To See Greater Government Initiative To Promote Gender Equality. 16

Young Ethiopians Prioritise Management Of The Economy For Government Action. 18

As Climate Change Worsens Life In Gambia, Citizens Want Collective Action To Fight It 20

WEST EUROPE.. 21

Why Do Britons Think Inheritance Tax Is Unfair. 21

Britons Support Rejoining The Single Market, Even If It Means Free Movement 23

Just 11% Of Britons Think COP28 Will Result In Significant Action On Climate Change. 25

Despite Pressures Facing Young Families Today, Most Parents Take Precious Moments To Play With Their Babies. 28

More Than Two In Five Britons Worry About How Much Christmas Is Going To Cost 31

Do The Public Praise Or Blame Rishi Sunak And Jeremy Hunt When It Comes To Inflation. 32

58% Of French People Admit That They Could Make More Effort To Reduce Their Energy Consumption. 36

First Anniversary Of Chat GPT, 77% Of French People See This Tool As A Revolution. 39

NORTH AMERICA.. 42

Americans More Upbeat About Future Social Security Benefits. 42

Most Of Biden’s Appointed Judges To Date Are Women, Racial Or Ethnic Minorities – A First For Any President 47

Americans’ Views Of The Israel-Hamas War 50

About Half Of Republicans Now Say The U.S. Is Providing Too Much Aid To Ukraine. 54

Older Workers Are Growing In Number And Earning Higher Wages. 57

Falling Inflation Provides Scant Relief As Canadians Cool Holiday Spending For A Second Year 60

AUSTRALIA.. 66

Readership Of Magazines Is Up 3.5% From A Year Ago With Increases In Readership For All Magazine Categories. 67

There Were Nearly Two Million Extra Vehicle Insurance Policies In 2023. 74

Australian Employment Increased To Over 14 Million For The First Time In November, But Still Over 3 Million Unemployed Or Under-Employed. 77

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Jumps 4.4pts To 80.8 After The RBA Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged – The Highest For Over Ten Months Since Early February 2023. 80

MULTICOUNTRY STUDIES. 81

Seven In Ten People Anticipate Climate Change Will Have A “Severe Effect” In Their Area Within The Next Ten Years, A Survey Across 31 Nations. 81

Data Dive: Gen Z Women Are Struggling The Most With Stress, Mental Health Issues, A Survey Across 31 Countries. 86

In East Asia, Many People See China’s Power And Influence As A Major Threat, A Survey In Five Asian Nations. 91

Global Attitudes On An Interconnected World, A Survey Across 24 Nations. 96

How The Israel-Hamas War In Gaza Is Changing Arab Views. 101

 


 

INTRODUCTORY NOTE

 

This weekly report consists of twenty-nine surveys. The report includes five multi-country studies from different states across the globe.

 

822-825-43-30/Commentary: More Than Two In Five Britons Worry About How Much Christmas Is Going To Cost

  • Seven in ten looking forward to Christmas but approaching half worry about cost
  • Concern comes amidst findings that two-thirds expect cost of living to worsen in next few years

The latest Ipsos Political Monitor, taken 1st – 8th November 2023, explores public attitudes towards the cost of Christmas and whether the economy (and other facets of life in Britain) will improve or get worse in the next 12 months.

The cost of Christmas

Whilst most Britons are looking forward to Christmas (70%), many are concerned by how much it will cost. This year 44% say they are concerned, compared to around three in ten in December 2020 and 2014. 

Chart showing percentage of people who are looking forward to christmas and the percentage who are worried about how much christmas costsConcern about the cost of Christmas rises to 58% amongst 18-34s and renters, 57% for ethnic minorities and 50% amongst the C2DE social grade. Women are more worried than men by a margin of 49% to 38%. Meanwhile, 28% overall feel stressed about preparing for Christmas, up from 21% three years ago. Women are more stressed about Christmas than men (33% to 23%) but overall 72% of Britons are not stressed – including 52% that are ‘not stressed at all’.

The economy and cost of living

55% of Britons expect the economy to worsen over the next 12 months, 19% think it will improve. This gives a net score of -36 which is very similar to last month (-34) and the start of the year (-33 in January).

When asked about difference facets of life in Britain there is a lot of pessimism around – especially on the NHS and cost of living. 66% expect the cost of living in Britain to get worse in the next few years and 64% say the same about the NHS.

Chart showing whether the public think different aspects of British society will get better or worse in the next few years

Gideon Skinner, Head of Political Research at Ipsos, said:

The rate of inflation may be falling, but Britons are still feeling its impact.  Most people are still pessimistic about the cost of living over the next few years, and even Christmas does not escape.  Even though most people are still looking forward to the festivities, over 4 in 10 are worried about its cost – with young people, renters and women in particular feeling the pressure. Ahead of the Autumn Statement the Prime Minister and Chancellor have hit their pledge to halve inflation, but will know they will also need to deliver on their other targets to grow the economy and reduce people’s financial insecurities over the cost of living to change the public mood.

(Ipsos MORI)

21 November 2023

Source: https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/more-two-in-five-britons-worry-about-how-much-christmas-is-going-to-cost

 

SUMMARY OF POLLS

ASIA

(Japan)

16% Prefer Koizumi As Prime Minister; 36% Choose ‘No One’

Former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi is considered the “most suitable” for prime minister by voters from among seven ruling party lawmakers, including incumbent Fumio Kishida, according to an Asahi Shimbun survey. Koizumi was picked by 16 percent of survey respondents in the “suitability” question, followed closely by Shigeru Ishiba, former Liberal Democratic Party secretary-general, at 15 percent, and Taro Kono, minister for digital transformation, at 13 percent.

(Ashi Shimbun)

20 November 2023


(Pakistan)

Nearly Three Quarters (74%) Of Pakistanis Think That The Environment For Working Women Is Less Supportive As Compared To Working Men

According to a survey conducted by Gallup & Gilani Pakistan, a significant majority (81%) of women in Pakistan think that the environment for working women is less supportive as compared to working men, while 29% of men in Pakistan think that it is not less supportive. A nationally representative sample of adult men and women from across the country was asked the question, “Do you think the environment for working women, compared to working men, is less supportive?” In response, 74% said ‘yes’, 23% said ‘no’, and 3% said that they did not know or gave no response.

(Gallup Pakistan)

13 December 2023

 

Overall, 8 In 10 People In Pakistan Are Concerned About Impacts Of Climate Change

According to a recent report published by the World Bank Group (for the full report click here) using data collected by Gallup Pakistan it was found that 8 in 10 people in Pakistan are concerned about impacts of climate change, with females and educated people being more concerned. People are more likely to take energy-saving actions like turning off lights (83.4%)

that lead to financial savings, instead of other actions such as reduction beef or paper,

consumption etc.

(Gallup Pakistan)

14 December 2023

 

AFRICA

(South Africa)

South Africans Want To See Greater Government Initiative To Promote Gender Equality

In South Africa, the gender gap is steadily narrowing, especially in education, where female students outperform their male counterparts (Ramaphosa, 2023). But despite marked improvement, women’s labour force participation rates lag behind men’s. The Quarterly Labour Force Survey shows that in the second quarter of 2023, women’s participation rate stood at 54.3% compared to 64.9% for men, representing a 10.6-percentage-point gap (Statistics South Africa, 2023).

(Afrobarometer)

29 November 2023


(Ethiopia)

Young Ethiopians Prioritise Management Of The Economy For Government Action

More than two-thirds of Ethiopians are under age 30 (Ethiopian Statistical Service, 2013), a powerful asset and resource for growth that has gone largely untapped. Historically, the relationship between successive Ethiopian governments and the youth has been “a combination of repression and co-optation” linking state resources and employment opportunities to youth associations affiliated with the ruling party (Kefale, Dejen, & Aalen, 2021).  

(Afrobarometer)

30 November 2023

 

As Climate Change Worsens Life In Gambia, Citizens Want Collective Action To Fight It

More than six in 10 Gambians (62%) say floods have become more severe in their region over the past decade. Half as many (31%) say the same about droughts. o Rural residents and poor citizens are significantly more likely to report worsening floods and droughts than their urban and better-off counterparts. A slim majority (56%) of Gambians say they have heard of climate change, a 12- percentage-point decrease compared to 2021.

(Afrobarometer)

01 December 2023

 

WEST EUROPE

(UK)

Why Do Britons Think Inheritance Tax Is Unfair

There has been speculation at various points this year that the government would make cuts to inheritance tax. YouGov tracker polling has consistently shown that Britons consider inheritance tax to be unfair, and a July survey found that a majority (56%) would support scrapping it. Few estates actually pay inheritance tax (less than 4% in 2020-21), although YouGov research for The Times in July found that approximately 15% of Britons expect to receive an inheritance in future that they will have to pay the tax on, and 31% expect that the tax will be levied on assets they themselves leave behind when they die.

(YouGov UK)

23 November 2023

 

Britons Support Rejoining The Single Market, Even If It Means Free Movement

New YouGov data indicates that more Britons are in fact supportive of joining the single market, even under this condition, than in opposition. Just short of six in ten Britons (57%) would support the UK joining the single market, even if this meant a return to free movement, with only around one in five (22%) opposed. More than eight in ten Remain voters (83%) would support doing so, compared to around a third (35%) of Leave voters, who tend to be opposed (45%).

(YouGov UK)

29 November 2023

 

Just 11% Of Britons Think COP28 Will Result In Significant Action On Climate Change
The latest YouGov polling presents a pessimistic public view of what the climate change conference can achieve. Just one in nine (11%) think the event will result in significant action. Three quarters of Britons (75%) say it is unlikely that COP28 will result in any serious action. This represents a growth in pessimism around these conferences - when YouGov asked the same question about COP27 in Egypt 12 months ago, 70% thought action was unlikely. Going back further, to COP26 in Glasgow in 2021, 68% felt that the conference was unlikely to result in significant action.

(YouGov UK)

30 November 2023

 

Despite Pressures Facing Young Families Today, Most Parents Take Precious Moments To Play With Their Babies

Four in five primary caregivers of nine-month-old babies reported cuddling, talking and playing with their little one several times a day, in the first national long-term study of babies in over two decades, led by UCL in partnership with Ipsos. More than half engaged in physical or turn-taking play, singing, pretend games and noisy play with their babies several times a day – activities which were linked to improved early language development. Around three quarters showed their babies picture books or took them outside at least once a day.

(Ipsos MORI)

20 November 2023

 

More Than Two In Five Britons Worry About How Much Christmas Is Going To Cost

The latest Ipsos Political Monitor, taken 1st – 8th November 2023, explores public attitudes towards the cost of Christmas and whether the economy (and other facets of life in Britain) will improve or get worse in the next 12 months. Whilst most Britons are looking forward to Christmas (70%), many are concerned by how much it will cost. This year 44% say they are concerned, compared to around three in ten in December 2020 and 2014. 

(Ipsos MORI)

21 November 2023

 

Do The Public Praise Or Blame Rishi Sunak And Jeremy Hunt When It Comes To Inflation

New polling from Ipsos in the UK, taken before the recent Autumn Statement (Friday 17th to Monday 20th November), explored public attitudes to the economy, inflation and Rishi Sunak’s performance in delivering against his 5 key policy pledges announced earlier this year. When asked how far various factors have contributed to falling inflation, we find the public are split on the role of Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt. 46% think they have contributed a great deal or fair amount to falling inflation and 43% say they have had not very much impact or have made no contribution at all.

(Ipsos MORI)

24 November 2023

 

(France)

58% Of French People Admit That They Could Make More Effort To Reduce Their Energy Consumption

Nationwide, in a context still marked by inflation, against the backdrop of the climate crisis, the two main concerns of the French are purchasing power (60% rank it among their three main concerns) and the environment (35%). Located at the intersection of these two dimensions, the issue of energy sobriety appears more than ever to be a priority issue for the country. Thus, purchasing power is the most important factor encouraging the French to reduce their energy consumption (66%), followed by the environment (21%).

(Ipsos France)

28 November 2023

 

First Anniversary Of Chat GPT, 77% Of French People See This Tool As A Revolution

On November 30, 2022, the French version of Chat GPT was made available to the general public. One year after this launch, the awareness of Chat GPT has reached a very high level: more than one in two French people (55%) now say they know what Chat GPT is and 83% of French people have heard of it. Chat GPT is best known by younger people (72% of those under 35 have a good idea of what it is), executives (83%) and people with a diploma above the baccalaureate (67%).

(Ipsos France)

01 December 2023

 

NORTH AMERICA

(USA)

Americans More Upbeat About Future Social Security Benefits

Americans are more optimistic about the future of Social Security than they have been in recent years, even though only about half currently express optimism. Among U.S. nonretirees, 50% expect the Social Security system to pay them a benefit when they retire, while 47% do not. In three readings taken between 2005 and 2015, nonretirees were more inclined to predict they would not receive Social Security retirement benefits.

(Gallup)

08 December 2023

 

Most Of Biden’s Appointed Judges To Date Are Women, Racial Or Ethnic Minorities – A First For Any President

Nearly two-thirds of the federal judges President Joe Biden has appointed so far are women, and the same share are members of racial or ethnic minority groups, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of statistics from the Federal Judicial Center. Biden still has more than a year left in his term, so these patterns could change. But no president has ever appointed a slate of judges consisting mostly of women or racial and ethnic minorities.

(PEW)

4 December 2023

 

Americans’ Views Of The Israel-Hamas War

As the war between Hamas and Israel continues with no end in sight, far more Americans (65%) say Hamas bears a lot of responsibility for the current conflict than say that about the Israeli government (35%). Much smaller shares of Americans say the Palestinian people (20%) and the Israeli people (13%) have a lot of responsibility for the war. Nearly half of Americans (48%) say that when thinking about the war, they are extremely or very concerned about the possibility of increasing violence against Jewish people in the United States.

(PEW)

8 December 2023

 

About Half Of Republicans Now Say The U.S. Is Providing Too Much Aid To Ukraine

As the war in Ukraine nears the two-year mark, about three-in-ten Americans (31%) say the United States is providing too much assistance to Ukraine in its fight against Russia, while about half say that the U.S. is providing the right amount of support (29%) or not providing enough (18%). The share of Americans who say the U.S. is giving too much support to Ukraine has grown steadily over the course of the war, especially among Republicans.

(PEW)

8 December 2023

 

Older Workers Are Growing In Number And Earning Higher Wages

Roughly one-in-five Americans ages 65 and older (19%) were employed in 2023 – nearly double the share of those who were working 35 years ago. Not only are older workers increasing in number, but their earning power has grown in recent decades. In 2022, the typical worker age 65 or older earned $22 per hour, up from $13 in 1987. Earnings for younger workers haven’t grown as much. As a result, the wage gap between older workers and those ages 25 to 64 has narrowed significantly.

(PEW)

14 December 2023


(Canada)

Falling Inflation Provides Scant Relief As Canadians Cool Holiday Spending For A Second Year

New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds Canadians finding little reprieve from a stabilizing inflation situation. Underscoring how economic conditions continue to drag, the sting of a second year of high consumer prices affecting everything from the cost of vitamins to bread and rent has majorities saying they will spend less on holiday preparations this year (55%) and have cut back on discretionary spending overall in recent months (61%). This continues a trend that emerged last year, when similar numbers said they had cut back.

(Angus Reid Institute)

30 November 2023

 

AUSTRALIA

Readership Of Magazines Is Up 3.5% From A Year Ago With Increases In Readership For All Magazine Categories

Now 11.6 million Australians aged 14+ (53.0%) read print magazines, up 3.5 per cent on a year ago, according to the results released today from the Roy Morgan Australian Readership report for the 12 months to September 2023. This market broadens to 15.1 million Australians aged 14+ (69.2%) who read magazines in print or online either via the web or an app, which is virtually unchanged from a year ago. These are the latest findings from the Roy Morgan Single Source survey of 65,331 Australians aged 14+ in the 12 months to September 2023.

(Roy Morgan)

28 November 2023

 

There Were Nearly Two Million Extra Vehicle Insurance Policies In 2023

New data from Roy Morgan shows that there were nearly two million more vehicle insurance policies in 2023 compared to 2022. The substantial increase in Australia’s population after the winding down of COVID restrictions has contributed to an increasing number of registered motor vehicles on Australian roads. More motor vehicles have boosted the number of vehicle insurance policies, with the number increasing by 1.6 million between October 2022 (32.1 million) and October 2023 (33.7 million).

(Roy Morgan)

04 December 2023

 

Australian Employment Increased To Over 14 Million For The First Time In November, But Still Over 3 Million Unemployed Or Under-Employed

In November 2023 Australian employment hit a record high of over 14 million for the first time with over 9 million now employed full-time and over 5 million employed part-time. However, despite surging employment – up by 430,000 compared to a year ago – a massive 3.04 million Australians (19.6% of the workforce) were unemployed or under-employed in November. ‘Real’ unemployment was down 0.2% to 9.7% - an estimated 1,505,000 Australians (down 37,000) in November.

(Roy Morgan)

12 December 2023

 

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Jumps 4.4pts To 80.8 After The RBA Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged – The Highest For Over Ten Months Since Early February 2023

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence jumped 4.4pts to 80.8 this week after the RBA left interest rates unchanged at last week’s final meeting for the year. However, despite the increase, Consumer Confidence has now spent a record 45 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is now 2.1pts below the same week a year ago, December 5-11, 2022 (82.9) and nearly 3 points above the 2023 weekly average of 77.8.

(Roy Morgan)

12 December 2023

 

MULTICOUNTRY STUDIES

Seven In Ten People Anticipate Climate Change Will Have A “Severe Effect” In Their Area Within The Next Ten Years, A Survey Across 31 Nations

This Ipsos study, released ahead of the COP28 UN Climate Change Conference, provides a new assessment on how people feel about climate change right now – focusing on what they see around them and what they think about actions being taken to address the challenges it brings. A majority (57%) across 31 countries have already witnessed a severe impact of climate change where they live. For countries like Mexico, Brazil and Türkiye, this figure is as high as eight in ten.

(Ipsos Global)

27 November 2023

Source: https://www.ipsos.com/en/seven-in-ten-people-anticipate-climate-change-will-have-severe-effect-their-area-within-next-ten-years

 

Data Dive: Gen Z Women Are Struggling The Most With Stress, Mental Health Issues, A Survey Across 31 Countries

And our recent global polling finds Generation Z women* are finding it quite difficult to cope these days. Just over two in three (68% on average globally) Gen Zers say mental health and physical health are equally important, followed by 73% of Millennials, 82% of Gen Xers and 87% of Boomers. Yet, only 35% think healthcare providers are placing equal emphasis on mental and physical health – with Gen Z women the least likely to think both are being treated equally.

(Ipsos Global)

05 December 2023

Source: https://www.ipsos.com/en/data-dive-gen-z-women-are-struggling-most-stress-mental-health-issues

 

In East Asia, Many People See China’s Power And Influence As A Major Threat, A Survey In Five Asian Nations

Majorities of adults in Japan, Taiwan and South Korea see China’s power and influence as a major threat to them. Roughly half of adults in Hong Kong (48%) agree. And large majorities in all places surveyed call China at least a minor threat. In Japan, 76% of adults consider China a major threat. This is comparable to the share (74%) who said the same in 2013, amid flare-ups in the East China Sea, and higher than the share (69%) who said this toward the end of the last decade.

(PEW)

05 December 2023

Source: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/12/05/in-east-asia-many-people-see-chinas-power-and-influence-as-a-major-threat/

 

Global Attitudes On An Interconnected World, A Survey Across 24 Nations

A median of 50% say they feel very or somewhat close to people all over the world, while 46% feel not too or not at all close. Feeling close to others around the world is more common in Europe than in other regions. Only 35% express this view in the United States, and it is even less common in Argentina, Indonesia and Israel. When it comes to engagement and cooperation with other nations, views differ significantly among the nations we polled, but a median of 55% want to pay less attention to problems in other countries and concentrate on problems at home; 43% think it’s best for the future of their country to be active in world affairs.

(PEW)

06 December 2023

Source: https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2023/12/06/attitudes-on-an-interconnected-world/

 

How The Israel-Hamas War In Gaza Is Changing Arab Views

Since October 7, the latest war between Hamas and Israel has claimed the lives of more than 15,000 Palestinians and over 1,200 Israelis. Scores more have been injured. The war has displaced more than 1.8 million Palestinians and left the fates of many of Israel’s people unknown; over 100 of those abducted in Israel remain hostages. Fighting has resulted in damage to 15 percent of the buildings in Gaza, including over 100 cultural landmarks and more than 45 percent of all housing units.

(Foreign Affairs)

14 December 2023

Source: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/how-israel-hamas-war-gaza-changing-arab-views?utm_medium=newsletters&utm_source=fatoday&utm_campaign=There%20Is%20a%20Path%20to%20Victory%20in%20Ukraine&utm_content=20231214&utm_term=FA%20Today%20-%20112017

 

ASIA

822-825-43-01/Polls

16% Prefer Koizumi As Prime Minister; 36% Choose ‘No One’

Former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi is considered the “most suitable” for prime minister by voters from among seven ruling party lawmakers, including incumbent Fumio Kishida, according to an Asahi Shimbun survey.

Koizumi was picked by 16 percent of survey respondents in the “suitability” question, followed closely by Shigeru Ishiba, former Liberal Democratic Party secretary-general, at 15 percent, and Taro Kono, minister for digital transformation, at 13 percent.

The other four were each chosen by less than 10 percent.

Sanae Takaichi, minister of economic security, gained 8 percent of the picks, Kishida received 7 percent, and former Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi and LDP Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi each got 1 percent.

However, 36 percent of respondents said none of the seven is suitable for prime minister, highlighting the lack of a clear public favorite to lead the country.

The Asahi Shimbun conducted the nationwide telephone survey on Nov. 18 and 19.

Since Shinzo Abe became prime minister for the second time in 2012, Koizumi, Ishiba and Kono have ranked high in surveys on voters’ preferences for prime minister.

Although they were the top three in the latest survey, the percentages suggest they have lost a considerable amount of public support.

Takaichi, an outspoken conservative who was close to Abe and has shown her interest in succeeding Kishida, was chosen by 11 percent of male respondents but only 5 percent of women, the survey showed.

Motegi, who heads the third-largest LDP faction, and Hayashi, who is the No. 2 individual in the Kishida faction, the fourth largest, are considered influential in the political arena, but they are not particularly well known among the public.

Among LDP supporters, Koizumi was picked by 19 percent, followed by Kono at 17 percent, Kishida and Ishiba at 15 percent each, and Takaichi at 9 percent.

(Ashi Shimbun)

20 November 2023

Source: https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/15062017

 

822-825-43-02/Polls

Nearly Three Quarters (74%) Of Pakistanis Think That The Environment For Working Women Is Less Supportive As Compared To Working Men

According to a survey conducted by Gallup & Gilani Pakistan, a significant majority (81%) of women in Pakistan think that the environment for working women is less supportive as compared to working men, while 29% of men in Pakistan think that it is not less supportive. A nationally representative sample of adult men and women from across the country was asked the question, “Do you think the environment for working women, compared to working men, is less supportive?” In response, 74% said ‘yes’, 23% said ‘no’, and 3% said that they did not know or gave no response.

GENDER BREAKDOWN:

81% of the women agreed with the statement while only 18% disagreed. There is a 13% difference in the number of women who agreed with the statement as compared to men.

(Gallup Pakistan)

13 December 2023

Source: https://gallup.com.pk/wp/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/13.12.23.Daily-Poll-English.pdf

 

822-825-43-03/Polls

Overall, 8 In 10 People In Pakistan Are Concerned About Impacts Of Climate Change

According to a recent report published by the World Bank Group (for the full report click

here) using data collected by Gallup Pakistan it was found that 8 in 10 people in Pakistan

are concerned about impacts of climate change, with females and educated people being

more concerned.

13 key learnings from the report are:

1. In a global comparison involving 19 countries conducted to gain a deeper

understanding of attitudes towards climate change Pakistan’s values lie somewhere in

the middle. Ranking #15 in terms of considering climate change a major threat.

2. Overall, 8 in 10 people in Pakistan are concerned about impacts of climate change,

with females and educated people being more concerned.

3. People’s perception of climate change can be affected by their experiences of income

shocks. With 16.2% more personally caring about climate change, and 6.2% more

concerned with the impact of climate change on children when having previously

experienced income loss as an impact of climate change.

4. Although around 80% of people express concern about climate change and its

impacts, when asked specifically about it, it does not necessarily rank high on their

list of priorities to address, with less than 25% considering it as one of their “Top 3

problems”.

5. Less than half the people believe that climate change is caused by human activity.

People with higher levels of education tend to be more knowledgeable about climate

change issues.

6. 37.7% of illiterate people do not trust any of the sources of climate related

information. This number decreases to 26.1% for people with higher education or

above.

7. Trust in sources of information also varies depending on the location of people, with

rural areas being more skeptical. 34.2% people in rural areas and 29.6% in urban

areas do not trust any sources of climate change information, making it difficult to convey the necessary information to them through traditional channels.

8. Despite widespread support, with 94% of parents demanding climate education in

schools, less than half of them discuss climate change with their children at home.

9. Despite high levels of concern about climate change, support for personal and

government action is relatively low across all forms of intervention.

10. More than two-thirds of people were prepared to pay for environmentally friendly

goods. There are, however, differences in demand based on education level.

11. 92% of individuals consider conserving energy somewhat or very important, however,

less than 13% people across all educational groups mentioned they support energy

conservation for environmental reasons.

12. When compared to overall concern for the environment shared by over 80%, the

percentage of people willing to contribute income or pay taxes for environment is less

than 60%.

13. People are more likely to take energy-saving actions like turning off lights (83.4%)

that lead to financial savings, instead of other actions such as reduction beef or paper,

consumption etc.

These findings highlight the complexities presented in understanding and addressing climate

change issues in Pakistan, as well as how the approach to combat climate change issues

varies across different socio-economic groups.

(Gallup Pakistan)

14 December 2023

Source: https://gallup.com.pk/wp/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/World-Bank-Report-PR-4.pdf

 

AFRICA

822-825-43-04/Polls

South Africans Want To See Greater Government Initiative To Promote Gender Equality

In August, South Africa celebrated its annual Women’s Day and Women’s Month under the theme “Women’s socio-economic rights and empowerment: Building back better for women’s improved resilience” (South African Government, 2023). Meeting this goal will require a holistic approach anchored in the economic, social, and political empowerment of women (Statistics South Africa, 2022).  

In South Africa, the gender gap is steadily narrowing, especially in education, where female students outperform their male counterparts (Ramaphosa, 2023). But despite marked improvement, women’s labour force participation rates lag behind men’s. The Quarterly Labour Force Survey shows that in the second quarter of 2023, women’s participation rate stood at 54.3% compared to 64.9% for men, representing a 10.6-percentage-point gap (Statistics South Africa, 2023). When employed, women are overwhelmingly engaged in precarious forms of work characterised by low pay and difficult work conditions (Teuteberg & Benjamin, 2023).  

Significant progress has been made in political representation, with 42% of seats in Parliament now held by women (Brothers, 2023).  

But girls and women continue to bear the brunt of violence, abuse, harassment, and discrimination. The Department of Justice and Constitutional Development reports that it handles more than 50,000 cases of domestic violence and femicide annually (Maine, 2023), while many other cases of gender-based violence go unreported. In an attempt to deal with the scourge of violence against women, the government last year passed the Criminal Law (Sexual Offences and Related Matters) Amendment Act Amendment Bill, the Criminal and Related Matters Amendment Bill, and the Domestic Violence Amendment Bill (South African Government, 2022; Vallabh, 2022).  

This dispatch reports on a special survey module included in the Afrobarometer Round 9 questionnaire to explore Africans’ experiences and perceptions of gender equality in control  over assets, hiring, land ownership, and political leadership. (For findings on gender-based  violence, see Mpako & Ndoma, 2023). 

In South Africa, findings show close to gender-equal educational attainment, but women trail  men slightly in control over certain assets and household financial decisions. Large majorities  express support for gender equality in hiring, land ownership, and political leadership, but many also consider it likely that a woman will suffer criticism and harassment from the  community if she runs for elective office. 

Overall, South Africans say the government should do more to promote equal rights and  opportunities for women, ranking gender-based violence and women’s under-representation  in positions of power as the most important women’s-rights issues that their government and  society must address.

Key findings

  • In South Africa, women are just as likely as men to have post-secondary education (30% vs. 29%).
  • Gender gaps persist in ownership of some key assets, including a computer (31% vs. 38%) and a motor vehicle (26% vs. 37%).
  • Women (45%) are slightly less likely than men (52%) to say they make decisions themselves about how household money is spent.
  • Large majorities support gender equality in hiring (75%) and land ownership and inheritance (82%).
  • Most citizens (81%) say women should have the same chance as men to be elected to political office. o However, six in 10 (59%) consider it likely that a woman running for public office will be criticised, called names, or harassed by others in the community.
  • Fewer than half (43%) of South Africans say their government is doing a good job of promoting gender equality. o Nearly six in 10 citizens (58%) say the government needs to do more to promote equal rights and opportunities for women.

(Afrobarometer)

29 November 2023

Source: https://www.afrobarometer.org/publication/ad740-south-africans-want-to-see-greater-government-initiative-to-promote-gender-equality/

 

822-825-43-05/Polls

Young Ethiopians Prioritise Management Of The Economy For Government Action

More than two-thirds of Ethiopians are under age 30 (Ethiopian Statistical Service, 2013), a powerful asset and resource for growth that has gone largely untapped. Historically, the relationship between successive Ethiopian governments and the youth has been “a combination of repression and co-optation” linking state resources and employment opportunities to youth associations affiliated with the ruling party (Kefale, Dejen, & Aalen, 2021).  

In 2004, Ethiopia introduced its first National Youth Policy, which defines youth as 15- to 29- year-olds and seeks to ensure that they have professional competencies, skills, and ethics to contribute to and benefit from the country’s development. Components of the policy emphasise youth participation in education and training, economic progress, and democracy and governance (Ministry of Youth, Sports and Culture, 2004). Measures designed to empower the youth include the Youth Revolving Fund, a multibillion-birr fund intended to help unemployed youth in urban and rural areas get jobs (Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, 2017).  

Despite such initiatives, the official rate of youth unemployment as of February 2021 stood at 12% in rural areas and 23% in cities, and migrants leaving the country in search of opportunities are predominantly the young aged 15-29 (Ethiopian Statistical Service, 2021).  Ethiopia remains a country where youth development is low, ranking 158th out of 181 countries on the Global Youth Development Index (Commonwealth, 2020).  

The Afrobarometer Round 9 survey (2023) offers some insights into the situation Ethiopian youth (defined here as ages 18-35). Findings show that young people are more educated than their elders but are also more likely to be unemployed. The economy is topmost on the minds of young Ethiopians, who think their government is doing a poor job on economic management and job creation. A majority of youth think their country is headed in “the wrong direction,” though they are somewhat more optimistic than older citizens that things will improve in the near future. 

Despite their dissatisfaction, young citizens are less likely than their elders to engage in political processes.

Key findings

  • Almost four in 10 young Ethiopians (38%) have secondary or post-secondary education, significantly surpassing older generations.
  • But youth (aged 18-35) are also more likely than their elders to be unemployed: 21% say they are not employed and are looking for jobs, compared to 8%-15% among older cohorts.
  • Management of the economy tops the list of the most important problems that Ethiopian youth want their government to address, followed by water supply, infrastructure/roads, electricity, and unemployment.
  • Fewer than half of young Ethiopians say the government is doing a good job of providing water (47%), maintaining roads and bridges (45%), providing electricity (39%), managing the economy (30%), and creating jobs (28%).
  • A majority (53%) of youth say the country is going in “the wrong direction,” while almost two-thirds (64%) describe the nation’s economic condition as bad and fewer than half (45%) expect things to improve over the coming year. But these assessments are somewhat more optimistic than those offered by older generations.
  • Despite their dissatisfaction with the country’s direction and the government’s performance, young citizens are less likely than their elders to engage in political and civic activities such as voting, attending community meetings, and joining others to raise an issue.

(Afrobarometer)

30 November 2023

Source: https://www.afrobarometer.org/publication/ad741-young-ethiopians-prioritise-management-of-the-economy-for-government-action/

 

822-825-43-06/Polls

As Climate Change Worsens Life In Gambia, Citizens Want Collective Action To Fight It

Agriculture and tourism combine for almost half of the Gambia’s gross domestic product (GDP) (Gambia Bureau of Statistics, 2022), and both are highly vulnerable to increasingly frequent and severe climate-related disasters that have plagued the country, including droughts, floods, windstorms, bushfires, soil intrusion, and coastal erosion. Climate change poses substantial risks to property, productive assets, livelihoods, and health, impeding the country’s progress toward its development objectives (Ministry of Environment, Climate Change and Natural Resources, 2022; Republic of the Gambia, 2022). 

The Gambia ranks 148th out of 182 countries on the Notre-Dame Global Adaptation Initiative’s (2021) Country Index, which rates both vulnerability to climate change and resilience. 

In response to the climate crisis, the government ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and in 2021 formulated The Gambia’s Long-Term Climate Neutral Development Strategy 2050. The strategy aims for net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 with strengthened adaptive capacities in agriculture, energy, infrastructure, health, coastal management, and other sectors. 

This dispatch reports on a special survey module included in the Afrobarometer Round 9 questionnaire to explore Gambians’ experiences and perceptions of climate change.  

Findings show that a majority of Gambians say flooding has become more severe in their region over the past decade – perceptions that are especially common among rural and poor citizens.  

Among the slim majority of Gambians who have heard of climate change, most say it is making life in the country more difficult. And almost unanimously, they demand greater efforts by the government and other stakeholders to address the threat. 

Key findings

(Afrobarometer)

01 December 2023

Source: https://www.afrobarometer.org/publication/ad742-as-climate-change-worsens-life-in-gambia-citizens-want-collective-action-to-fight-it/

 

WEST EUROPE

822-825-43-07/Polls

Why Do Britons Think Inheritance Tax Is Unfair

Topping the list is the idea that it represents ‘double taxation’

There has been speculation at various points this year that the government would make cuts to inheritance tax. YouGov tracker polling has consistently shown that Britons consider inheritance tax to be unfair, and a July survey found that a majority (56%) would support scrapping it.

Few estates actually pay inheritance tax (less than 4% in 2020-21), although YouGov research for The Times in July found that approximately 15% of Britons expect to receive an inheritance in future that they will have to pay the tax on, and 31% expect that the tax will be levied on assets they themselves leave behind when they die.

Nevertheless, these figures are still significantly smaller than the 61% of Britons who said that inheritance tax is unfair in a survey in late September. So why do people consider the tax to be unfair? We asked these respondents to describe their reasoning for us – respondents answered in their own words, which we have grouped into the categories below.

By far the most common reason is the perception that inheritance tax represents ‘double taxation’ – that the deceased had already paid various taxes when they earned their money and purchased their property, and were now effectively being forced to do so again in order to pass it on. More than four in ten of those who consider inheritance tax unfair gave this as a reason (42%).

"Why should anyone have to pay tax on money that has already been taxed god knows how many times over? Inheritance tax is grossly unfair to anyone who has to pay it."

"People work all their lives to save and leave something for their children having already paid tax on it, its a double hit."

"People are taxed on earnings, savings, pensions - so all dues have been paid."

Why is inheritance tax unfair?

In a distant second place (at 17%) was a general rejection of the principle, with respondents simply saying that the government shouldn’t tax inheritance.

That the inheritance tax threshold kicks in at too low a level was one of the more common responses, at 10%. Many of these respondents feel that it is unfair that rising house prices are drawing people who are otherwise not ‘wealthy’ into the inheritance tax bracket.

"House prices have risen to such a degree that the £325,000 limit affects too many people and while ordinary folk lose 40%, rich and financially sophisticated people will find ways around it."

"Considering average house prices currently, the sale after a death of a somewhat ordinary property attracts this tax."

"The limit is too low for people living in the South where house prices are much higher than in the North of the country."

Why is inheritance tax unfair?

That the 40% inheritance tax rate is too high is also a source of unfairness for 9% of respondents.

"If an average family works hard and saves it seems wrong that the benefits are confiscated by such an onerous 40% tax."

"Astronomical rate of tax for £325,000, it should be tiered so the more you inherit the more tax you pay."

"40% is too high to take from a grieving family and their hard earned earnings."

Why is inheritance tax unfair?

One in nine (11%) are critical of what they see as a penalising aspect of inheritance tax – that it punishes those who choose to save in order to pass on a nest egg when they die, rather than simply spending all the money while they live.

"It is a tax on those who budgeted for their future and that of their families, often going without."

"It's double taxation, a punishment for being financially responsible and totally immoral."

"People work hard, save and go without to leave as much as possible to loved ones only to have a part of it deducted. Others who have not made the effort and taken from the tax payer have nothing taken away."

Why is inheritance tax unfair?

Separately, as can be seen in some of the examples above, there is a noticeable emotional seam cutting across categories: that the money involved has been ‘hard earned’, either by the respondent themselves or by their family members. Around one in seven (15%) brought this up when explaining why they think inheritance tax is unfair.

(YouGov UK)

23 November 2023

Source: https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/47940-why-do-britons-think-inheritance-tax-is-unfair

 

822-825-43-08/Polls

Britons Support Rejoining The Single Market, Even If It Means Free Movement

Seven in ten Britons support a closer relationship with the EU than we have now

As we approach the fourth anniversary of Brexit, 52% of Britons now believe that the UK leaving the EU was the wrong decision. The Labour party – likely to form the next government – have so far resisted calls to move towards rejoining the single market, despite pressure from some businesses who say this could improve the situation.

Joining the single market would allow for the free movement of goods and services between the UK, the EU and other non-EU countries who are member of the single market, like Norway and Lichtenstein. However, this would also likely mean agreeing to the free movement of people between the UK and the EU – a frightening prospect for Keir Starmer’s Labour given the role of immigration in driving the Leave vote. But is this fear justified?

Perhaps not. New YouGov data indicates that more Britons are in fact supportive of joining the single market, even under this condition, than in opposition. Just short of six in ten Britons (57%) would support the UK joining the single market, even if this meant a return to free movement, with only around one in five (22%) opposed.

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Leave voters backing Labour are keener on joining the single market

As could be expected, Remain voters are more likely to be supportive of joining the single market than Leave voters. More than eight in ten Remain voters (83%) would support doing so, compared to around a third (35%) of Leave voters, who tend to be opposed (45%).

YouGov’s latest Westminster voting intention poll has about 18% of Leave voters backing Labour if there were an election tomorrow, with 29% supporting the Conservatives and 13% Reform UK.

Our data shows that Labour committing to a return to the single market might not prove as alienating as Starmer may fear. Of Leavers who would back Labour in an election tomorrow, 53% would support the UK joining the single market, even if this meant allowing the free movement of people, with three in ten opposed (31%).

By contrast, Leave voters intending to back the Conservatives generally oppose a return to the single market (54%), although a minority of 29% support doing so.

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Britons want closer ties with the EU

Whilst Labour has so far ruled out rejoining the single market, Starmer has asserted his intention to build closer ties with the EU, pledging to try and establish closer trading ties with if Labour win at the next election.

In general, Britons favour building closer ties with the EU. Seven in ten Britons (72%) want to see the UK have closer ties with the EU in some form or another, including a majority of both Remain (90%) and Leave (64%) voters. By contrast, one in five (19%) favour the UK maintaining the status quo or further reducing ties with the EU.

The most popular proposals for the UK’s future relationship with the EU are rejoining the European Union (31%) and increasing the trading relationship with the EU without joining the single market (30%). A further one in nine (11%) want to join the single market, but not the EU.

Of the options offered, most Remain voters favour joining the EU (56%), while those who voted Leave are instead generally in favour of increasing the amount of trade we do with the EU without joining the single market (46%).

(YouGov UK)

29 November 2023

Source: https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/47997-britons-support-rejoining-the-single-market-even-if-it-means-free-movement

 

822-825-43-09/Polls

Just 11% Of Britons Think COP28 Will Result In Significant Action On Climate Change

Britons are split on whether climate change spending should be a priority at the current time

The 28th United Nations Climate Change conference from 30 November - 12 December in Dubai – dubbed COP28 – will see world leaders gather to discuss how the world is tackling rising temperatures as we come to the close of the hottest year on record.

The latest YouGov polling presents a pessimistic public view of what the climate change conference can achieve. Just one in nine (11%) think the event will result in significant action.

Three quarters of Britons (75%) say it is unlikely that COP28 will result in any serious action. This represents a growth in pessimism around these conferences - when YouGov asked the same question about COP27 in Egypt 12 months ago, 70% thought action was unlikely. Going back further, to COP26 in Glasgow in 2021, 68% felt that the conference was unlikely to result in significant action.

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Very few are paying attention to the conference, with 81% saying they have heard little or nothing about it just two days prior to the start of the conference.

When asked about what role different developments can have when it comes to addressing climate change, meetings of international leaders like COP28 are seen as being the least influential of all the measures tested. While 79% say the development of cleaner and more environmentally friendly technologies can play a “very big” or “significant” role in tackling climate change – the most important according to the public – just half (52%) say the same of conferences like COP28.

Measures such as companies promoting more environmentally friendly practices (72%), trade deals that require countries to cut emissions (68%), pressure from the public for governments to take action (62%) and United Nations action (61%) are all likewise seen to have a bigger role than conferences such as COP28.

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Despite a distinct lack of enthusiasm for COP28, Britons remain worried about climate change (63% are currently very or fairly worried), but are cautiously optimistic that there is still time to tackle the issue, with 60% saying that we can still avoid the worst effects if we make drastic changes.

However, this does not translate into public support for government spending on climate change. In fact, the British public are split when it comes to whether climate change spending should be prioritised – 36% say spending on climate change should be a priority now, and should be increased, even if this means cuts elsewhere, while 38% say that there are other priorities for government spending that are more urgent than climate change.

While Rishi Sunak may have hoped to see his diluting of some net zero policies in September would shift the dial on whether people see climate change spending as a priority, the figures do not appear to bear this out. The results are largely similar to our previous survey in January, when 37% saw climate change as the priority but 34% wanted to priorities other spending areas.

Results for this measure vary drastically according to political persuasion – 2019 Conservative voters are far more likely to say that there are other priorities right now (59%), while almost the same proportion (57%) of Labour voters feel that climate change spending should be seen as a priority at the current time and should be increased.

(YouGov UK)

30 November 2023

Source: https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/48005-just-11-of-britons-think-cop28-will-result-in-significant-action-on-climate-change

 

822-825-43-10/Polls

Despite Pressures Facing Young Families Today, Most Parents Take Precious Moments To Play With Their Babies

Four in five primary caregivers of nine-month-old babies reported cuddling, talking and playing with their little one several times a day, in the first national long-term study of babies in over two decades, led by UCL in partnership with Ipsos.

More than half engaged in physical or turn-taking play, singing, pretend games and noisy play with their babies several times a day – activities which were linked to improved early language development. Around three quarters showed their babies picture books or took them outside at least once a day.

For just over one in 14 (7.4%) of these babies, most of those daily interactions will be with their father, who is their primary caregiver. Just 20 years ago, only one in 1,000 (0.11%) of nine-month-olds were cared for primarily by their dad at this age.

The first report from the Children of the 2020s study, published today by the UK Department for Education (DfE) and led by UCL in partnership with Ipsos and the universities of Cambridge and Oxford, and Birkbeck, University of London, revealed that these home activities are having positive effects on babies’ understanding of common words, like ‘ball’, ‘bye-bye’ and ‘mummy’, as babies that played more with caregivers understood more words at this age.

Overall, nine-month-olds understood an average of 14 out of 51 common words. This was similar to pre-pandemic norms, despite added pressure on today’s families.

The findings also showed that parents are navigating significant challenges in their babies’ first months, with a quarter facing at least some financial strain and around a fifth reporting seeking help from a doctor for feelings of depression since the birth of their child.

Commissioned by the DfE, Children of the 2020s is following more than 8,500 families and their babies, born in England between September and November 2021. It is the first long-term, nationally representative study of babies since the UK Millennium Cohort Study was launched more than 20 years ago. Children of the 2020s will follow families for at least the first five years of their children’s lives, shedding new light on the factors that can influence early years development. The first survey took place when the babies were, on average, nine and a half months old.

The first findings from the study paint a picture of a new generation of infants and their families.

Today’s parents

  • 32% of today’s primary caregivers were on parental leave from their job when their child was nine months old, compared to just 2.5% of primary caregivers 20 years ago.
  • Compared to parents raising children two decades ago, today’s caregivers are more likely to be educated to degree level or higher (50% v 33%), and employed (71% v 51%).

Family finances

  • 25% of families with nine-month-olds had experienced significant financial strain, such as having difficulties managing finances, not keeping up with bills, being unable to afford essential baby items, and having to skip or cut the size of meals.
  • Today’s parents are less likely to own their home (50% v 64%) and more likely to rent (42% v 31%) than parents two decades ago.
  • 47% of today’s parents own their home with the help of a loan or mortgage, and 3% of families own their home outright. Among those renting when their babies were nine months, 24% rented from a private landlord, 10% from a local authority, and 8% from a housing association.

Childcare

  • 43% of families were using some form of regular childcare when their babies were nine months. Of these families, most were using informal childcare provided by relatives or friends. However, one in eight were using formal childcare such as day nurseries or childminders.
  • Parents on the highest incomes were almost six times as likely to use formal childcare (23% v 4%) than those from the most disadvantaged homes.
  • They were also more likely to use informal childcare (40% v 31%), mainly from grandparents and other relatives and friends.

Screen use

  • 72% of parents said their nine-month-olds spent some time watching television, videos or screens every day. On average, children who watched screens typically did so for an average of 41 minutes a day, however 7% of babies had more than two hours of screen time per day and 28% had none at all.
  • Children of the 2020s is one of the first and largest studies to measure screen time in infancy.

Play and language development

  • At nine months, those who often played turn-taking games, like peek-a-boo, with their caregivers understood five more words, on average, than babies who did these things least. Similarly, those who were read to several times a day understood four more words, and babies who engaged in frequent physical play understood three more words, on average.
  • While the researchers caution they do not yet know whether these babies that understand more words at nine months will continue to progress more quickly, the findings are in line with other evidence that play in infancy and early childhood can improve long term language and cognitive development.

Access to healthcare services

  • 24% of parents reported they had had trouble getting an appointment with a GP in the past 12 months, and 19% had problems accessing a health visitor.
  • More than a quarter of mothers (26%) had used breastfeeding support services since their baby was born, with 13% paying for breastfeeding support.

COVID-19

  • 14% of mothers had had a confirmed or suspected COVID-19 infection during their pregnancy. Between birth and age nine months, two in five babies (41%) and more than half of their parents/carers (57%) had been infected with COVID-19.
  • 74% of primary caregivers had at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, and 37% of mothers had had a dose during pregnancy.

Department for Education (DfE) spokesperson said:

The department commissioned this research to better understand early childhood development factors which will help shape policy decisions. We are encouraged by many parents engaging in activities like reading and play, recognising its importance in early development.
Understanding the pressures many households are under, we've expanded free school meal eligibility several times since 2010, to more groups of children than any other Government over the past century. This is in addition to offering record financial support averaging £3,300 per household, implementing our transformational childcare reforms, increasing the National Living Wage, and providing help for households with food, energy and other essential costs.

(Ipsos MORI)

20 November 2023

Source: https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/despite-pressures-facing-young-families-today-most-parents-take-precious-moments-play-their-babies

 

822-825-43-11/Polls

More Than Two In Five Britons Worry About How Much Christmas Is Going To Cost

  • Seven in ten looking forward to Christmas but approaching half worry about cost
  • Concern comes amidst findings that two-thirds expect cost of living to worsen in next few years

The latest Ipsos Political Monitor, taken 1st – 8th November 2023, explores public attitudes towards the cost of Christmas and whether the economy (and other facets of life in Britain) will improve or get worse in the next 12 months.

The cost of Christmas

Whilst most Britons are looking forward to Christmas (70%), many are concerned by how much it will cost. This year 44% say they are concerned, compared to around three in ten in December 2020 and 2014. 

Chart showing percentage of people who are looking forward to christmas and the percentage who are worried about how much christmas costsConcern about the cost of Christmas rises to 58% amongst 18-34s and renters, 57% for ethnic minorities and 50% amongst the C2DE social grade. Women are more worried than men by a margin of 49% to 38%. Meanwhile, 28% overall feel stressed about preparing for Christmas, up from 21% three years ago. Women are more stressed about Christmas than men (33% to 23%) but overall 72% of Britons are not stressed – including 52% that are ‘not stressed at all’.

The economy and cost of living

55% of Britons expect the economy to worsen over the next 12 months, 19% think it will improve. This gives a net score of -36 which is very similar to last month (-34) and the start of the year (-33 in January).

When asked about difference facets of life in Britain there is a lot of pessimism around – especially on the NHS and cost of living. 66% expect the cost of living in Britain to get worse in the next few years and 64% say the same about the NHS.

Chart showing whether the public think different aspects of British society will get better or worse in the next few years

Gideon Skinner, Head of Political Research at Ipsos, said:

The rate of inflation may be falling, but Britons are still feeling its impact.  Most people are still pessimistic about the cost of living over the next few years, and even Christmas does not escape.  Even though most people are still looking forward to the festivities, over 4 in 10 are worried about its cost – with young people, renters and women in particular feeling the pressure. Ahead of the Autumn Statement the Prime Minister and Chancellor have hit their pledge to halve inflation, but will know they will also need to deliver on their other targets to grow the economy and reduce people’s financial insecurities over the cost of living to change the public mood.

(Ipsos MORI)

21 November 2023

Source: https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/more-two-in-five-britons-worry-about-how-much-christmas-is-going-to-cost

 

822-825-43-12/Polls

Do The Public Praise Or Blame Rishi Sunak And Jeremy Hunt When It Comes To Inflation

  • Just under half (46%) think Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt have contributed to fall in inflation – but Bank of England and global economy generally seen as having more influence.
  • Two-thirds (66%) think actions of Sunak and Hunt have contributed to difficulties facing economy in the first place – but COVID-19 hangover and global economy get even more of the blame.

New polling from Ipsos in the UK, taken before the recent Autumn Statement (Friday 17th to Monday 20th November), explored public attitudes to the economy, inflation and Rishi Sunak’s performance in delivering against his 5 key policy pledges announced earlier this year.

Who do the public credit for falling inflation?

When asked how far various factors have contributed to falling inflation, we find the public are split on the role of Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt. 46% think they have contributed a great deal or fair amount to falling inflation and 43% say they have had not very much impact or have made no contribution at all. Decisions made by the Bank of England (60%) and the state of the global economy generally (58%) are seen to have contributed more.

Ipsos Chart: The public are split on how much of a role decisions made by Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt have had on the recent fall in inflation

  • But more people (66%) think that decisions made by current PM Rishi Sunak and Chancellor Jeremy Hunt have contributed to the current difficulties facing the British economy in the first place (68% say the same about the Conservative party’s economic policies during the last 13 years, and the same proportion cite decisions made by Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng).  
  • The public are most likely to think the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic (79%) and state of the global economy (73%) have contributed ‘a great deal’ or ‘a fair amount’ to Britain’s economic woes.

Ipsos Chart: What’s to blame for current difficulties facing the economy? (% A Great Deal/fair amount) COVID 79% Global economy 73% Conservative economic policies 68% Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng 68% Russia invasion of Ukraine 68% Brexit 62% Last Labour Government 41%

The Conservatives and the economy

  • 23% think Jeremy Hunt is doing a good job as Chancellor and 35% think he is doing a bad job. These figures have not changed much this year but last November they were 17% and 29% respectively (meaning that there has been an increase in both those saying good and bad job).
  • Meanwhile, on the cost of living specifically, 20% think Hunt has being doing a good job tackling the cost of living crisis and 45% say he has been doing a bad job. 2019 Conservative voters are split between the 33% saying good job and 32% saying bad.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's pledges

Overall, the public continue to think Sunak’s pledges around easing the cost of living and giving people financial security (61%), reducing NHS waiting times (55%) and ensuring people get the NHS care they need more quicky (52%) are most important to them. Although 2019 Conservative voters also rank pledges around illegal immigration and economic growth as important.

Ipsos Chart: Sunak pledges: The cost of living (72%) and NHS (64%) are priorities for 2019 Labour voters. 2019 Conservatives also prioritise immigration (52%) and growth pledges (45%)

The public also still think Sunak’s government are performing badly against the pledges that are most important to them. 62% think his government are doing a bad job easing the cost of living, 69% think it is doing a bad job reducing NHS waiting lists, 68% say the same about ensuring people get the NHS care they need more quickly.

Ipsos Chart: The public tend to think Rishi Sunak’s government is doing a bad job at delivering on his pledges – especially on the NHS

On the other hand, given recent inflation figures, 27% now think Sunak’s government has done a good job halving inflation this year (+13 points from September) but 43% still think they have done a bad job (down 14 points in the same time period).

Ipsos Director of Politics Keiran Pedley said of the findings:

These findings show that there is some improving public goodwill towards Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt in light of falling inflation but this has not yet led to a fundamental reassessment of the government’s record on the economy. Almost half think Sunak and Hunt have contributed a great deal or fair amount towards falling inflation. However, 6 in 10 still think this government is doing a bad job easing the cost of living and two-thirds think Sunak and Hunt’s actions have contributed towards difficulties facing the economy in the first place.

(Ipsos MORI)

24 November 2023

Source: https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/do-public-praise-or-blame-rishi-sunak-and-jeremy-hunt-when-it-comes-inflation

 

822-825-43-13            /Polls

58% Of French People Admit That They Could Make More Effort To Reduce Their Energy Consumption

Energy sobriety, a key issue at both the national and local levels

Principale motivation des Français pour diminuer leur consommation d'énergie est le pouvoir d'achatNationwide, in a context still marked by inflation, against the backdrop of the climate crisis, the two main concerns of the French are purchasing power (60% rank it among their three main concerns) and the environment (35%). Located at the intersection of these two dimensions, the issue of energy sobriety appears more than ever to be a priority issue for the country. Thus, purchasing power is the most important factor encouraging the French to reduce their energy consumption (66%), followed by the environment (21%).

At the local level, mayors themselves are directly affected by the energy crisis. A significant proportion of them have had to postpone or abandon projects due to rising energy costs (31%, 57% in large cities). In fact, it is the 2nd highest concern of mayors for their municipality (41% cite it as one of their 3 main concerns) behind security (43%). In municipalities with more than 2000 inhabitants, energy sobriety even comes in 1st place (62% cite it as one of their 3 main concerns, 78% in municipalities with 30,000 inhabitants or more). For their part, the French recognise the investment of their mayors and municipal teams (66%) in their municipality, but believe that it is possible to do more (65%), especially in large cities (73%).

2 Français sur 3 estiments que leur maire a fait des efforts importants pour aller vers plus de sobriété énergétique

On the side of mayors and citizens alike, new habits to move towards more sobriety

Most French people say they have made efforts to reduce their energy consumption. On average, they adopted 2.5 new actions in 2023 to reduce their consumption (out of a list of 11 actions to reduce their consumption identified by Enedis and Ipsos). For example, 30% say they have started to turn down the heating to 19° at home when they did not do so before, and 28% have started to turn off all their appliances on standby when they are not in use. At the same time, more than three-quarters of them monitored their electricity consumption more closely (78%). However, despite their recognized effectiveness, actions such as insulating the home and using public transport remain the least adopted because of the constraints they impose. In addition, the majority of French people recognise that they could make more of an effort to reduce their energy consumption (58%).

consomation d'électricité et actions de sobriété

For their part, mayors have implemented an average of 4.7 measures to reduce their municipality's energy consumption (out of 9 proposed measures). However, many French people are not well informed about the actions put in place by their mayor. The most common municipal actions were to reduce heating in public buildings (88%), to turn off public lighting after 22 p.m. (80%) and to renovate municipal buildings (78%). On the other hand, few have switched off municipal billboards at night (just under half of the municipalities concerned), or asked to turn off illuminated advertisements at night (just under half of the municipalities concerned as well). For their part, the French are in favour of most energy sobriety measures, with the exception of those that involve giving up Christmas lights or closing sports and cultural spaces (measures put in place by 32% and 23% of municipalities respectively). Turning off the lights after 22 p.m. is also much less popular in large cities than in rural areas.

Les 3 postes de dépense énergetiques les plus importants dans leur commune

Difficulties in moving towards more effective sobriety at the municipal level, partly linked to a low use of the services made available

Of the mayors who have made energy sobriety an important objective for their municipality (83%), most have encountered difficulties in achieving it (91%). They most often say they have faced financial (77%) and regulatory (49%) constraints, but also a lack of technical expertise and knowledge (44%). In addition, while a very large majority of mayors believe that the measures taken have had an impact in terms of energy savings for the municipality, only 1 in 5 consider that this impact has been "strong" (19%).

In this context, electricity distribution stakeholders are seen as essential partners in helping mayors control energy consumption. Thus, 92% of mayors who called on their network operator to better control the energy sobriety of their municipality were satisfied with the results. So far, however, only a minority of mayors have used their services (46%).

Gestionnaire de réseau

(Ipsos France)

28 November 2023

Source: https://www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/58-des-francais-reconnaissent-quils-pourraient-faire-plus-deffort-pour-reduire-leur-consommation

 

822-825-43-14/Polls

First Anniversary Of Chat GPT, 77% Of French People See This Tool As A Revolution

A significant increase in awareness and use of Chat GPT

One year after the launch of Chat GPT, a strong increase in its notoriety

A rapid craze for Chat GPT, and a use that has become regular for a significant part of respondents

  • A significant proportion of French people who have heard of Chat GPT have already used it: more than 4 out of 10 respondents (43%) say they have done so since the tool went online. Once again, it is the youngest (65% of those under 35), managers (67%) and people with a diploma above the baccalaureate (50%) who are the most likely to have already used it.
  • More often than not, people who have used it before did so for the first time fairly soon after release. 13% used it immediately or almost immediately, while 18% only waited a few weeks. Only 12% didn't use it until several months after release.
  • Among Chat GPT users, a significant proportion now use it regularly: 41% use it at least once a week, including 12% who use it every day, and the majority (55%) say they use it at least once a month. Only 5% of those who have tried it at least once never use it again.
  • Once again, it is the youngest (47% of 18-24 year olds and 50% of 25-34 year olds) who use it at least once a week, managers (57%) and people with a diploma

Significant attractiveness potential

The French are interested in a wide variety of services offered by Chat GPT or similar tools

  • If a limited number of French people already use the different tools offered by Chat GPT or by similar software, we can see that these different tools have a significant potential for attractiveness. This is particularly the case for being able to benefit from advice and help in different areas of life (for example for leisure and travel): this service is of interest to 77% of French people, including 26% who have already used it.
  • Another service that arouses great interest is the possibility of benefiting from writing assistance, whether for writing letters or messages (58%, including 14% who already use it), or for writing documents, notes or assignments (56%, including 14% who already use it).
  • On average, French people already use 1.2 services, among the various services tested. However, when we look at the results from those who use Chat GPT regularly (at least 2 times a month) we see that this figure rises to 3.8. Four services are particularly used: getting advice and help in different areas (53% already use it), finding specific information on a given topic (47%) and help with writing, whether it is writing documents, notes or assignments (45%) orreacting to letters or messages (45%). Overall, it can be seen that people who regularly use Chat GPT use a wide variety of services, with each service offered being used by at least a third of regular users.

The shared feeling of an ongoing revolution, with multiple consequences

The French are unanimous on the impact of Chat GPT and AI tools in general

  • The increasingly important development of AI is clearly seen by the French as a real revolution: 77% think that this is the case, and that this revolution will profoundly change working methods and our lifestyles. This observation is therefore shared by the majority of French people, and 26% even feel that this is completely the case.
  • It is the categories that use Chat GPT the most that are most convinced of the importance of this revolution: young people (80% of those under 35, including 36% who think this is completely the case), executives (87%, including 42%) and people with a diploma above the baccalaureate (81%, including 31%). While these categories are the most convinced, we can see that the perception of artificial intelligence tools as a real revolution is shared by all categories. Even those who have never used Chat GPT believe that this is the case.

The perception of the consequences of this revolution varies from one field to another

  • In most areas, the French tend to perceive the consequences of the development of AI tools as more positive than negative. This is particularly the case in the field of scientific research: 64% of French people feel that the consequences will be positive, including 21% who believe that they will be very positive. Only 21% perceive these consequences as negative.
  • Similarly, a majority of respondents perceive positive consequences for health (56% vs. 25% who perceive negative consequences in this area), productivity at work (55% vs. 29%) and well-being at work (52% vs. 26%).
  • On the other hand, there are two areas where opinions are more divided. First and foremost, education, for which only 45% of French people perceive positive consequences. Although this is a minority sentiment, it is still slightly higher than the proportion of French people who consider that the consequences will be negative (37%). The other area where the perception is the most negative is employmentOnly 30% of respondents believe that the development of AI tools will have a positive impact on employment, compared to a majority (47%) who believe that they will be negative

A particularly important impact for the world of work

Important changes coming in the world of work

  • The arrival of Chat GPT and artificial intelligence tools is already causing significant changes in the way workers and students work. More than 6 in 10 (62%) say these changes are underway, and more than one in five (21%) say these significant changes have already happened.
  • The impact has affected all socio-professional categories. Executives are the most concerned: 73% say changes are underway, including 29% for whom they have already taken place. But the other categories are also observing changes: 63% of intermediate professionals (including 15% for whom these changes have already taken place) and 56% of manual and white-collar workers (including 19%).
  • As a result of these changes, the majority of workers feel that their jobs will be profoundly transformed by AI (58% think this is the case, including 17% who think this is certainly the case). Again, managers are the most likely to perceive this (69%), but this perception is also shared by a majority of intermediate professionals (56%) and manual and white-collar workers (57%).
  • While the prospect of the disappearance of the entity where one works, one's job or one's profession is less shared, it is still shared by more than a third of respondents (37%, 36% and 33% respectively), a sign that this fear is far from trivial. Above all, the youngest are particularly worried (respectively 46%, 42% and 43% of those under 35 feel that there is a risk that the entity where they work, their job and their profession will no longer exist due to the development of artificial intelligence).

French people divided on the impact of AI tools in the workplace

  • Overall, the French feel more that AI will have a positive rather than a negative impact on the field of work. This is particularly the case for the vocational training offered to employees (55% believe that the repercussions will be positive and 25% negative) and the organisation of employees' work (52% against 28%). On the other hand, the French are more divided on the impact on employees' level of well-being at work (45% vs. 30%) and on employees' interest in work (40% vs. 37%).
  • Executives are by far the most positive. Manual and non-manual workers are also more positive than the average respondent, in contrast to intermediate occupations, which are less likely to see potential positive impacts. Pensioners, on the other hand, are the most pessimistic about the future consequences.

The mastery of AI is becoming an important issue for the coming years

  • Among the various elements that matter for a successful professional life, mastery of AI tools seems to have become an important element. Having a taste for work is considered the most important element (64% cite it, including 32% who cite it first) ahead of having diplomas (54%) and mastery of foreign languages (50%). Mastery of AI tools comes in fourth place and is cited by nearly one in two French people (47%). The French therefore attach a very important place to this issue among the elements that can contribute to the success of a professional life.
  • People who use Chat GPT regularly (at least 2 times a month) are the ones who consider it most important in the future for a young person in the world of work to master artificial intelligence tools (51%). However, many people who never use it (45%) also believe that it will be important to master these tools.

As a result, a majority of opinion in favor of teaching on the use of AI

  • Faced with this observation of an essential mastery of artificial intelligence tools, the French are overwhelmingly in favour (67%, including 18% who are completely in favour) of setting up courses designed to teach students how to use artificial intelligence tools.
  • Support for this measure can be found in all categories. Ininsi, the youngest (68% of those under 35) and the oldest (66% of those aged 65 and over) are overwhelmingly in favour of the introduction of this education.

(Ipsos France)

01 December 2023

Source: https://www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/premier-anniversaire-de-chat-gpt-77-des-francais-voient-cet-outil-comme-une-revolution

 

NORTH AMERICA

822-825-43-15/Polls

Americans More Upbeat About Future Social Security Benefits

Americans are more optimistic about the future of Social Security than they have been in recent years, even though only about half currently express optimism. Among U.S. nonretirees, 50% expect the Social Security system to pay them a benefit when they retire, while 47% do not. In three readings taken between 2005 and 2015, nonretirees were more inclined to predict they would not receive Social Security retirement benefits.

Further, 53% of current U.S. retirees believe they will continue to receive their full Social Security benefits, up from 37% in 2010 and 49% in 2015. Forty-three percent of retirees currently believe their benefits will eventually be cut.

Despite the improved outlook among both retirees and nonretirees, neither group is any more upbeat about the future of their Social Security benefits now than they were in the 1980s, 1990s and early 2000s.

These results are based on Gallup polling conducted in June and July, including a sample of more than 1,300 nonretirees and over 600 retirees.

Social Security’s future has been a topic of debate for decades. The system is expected to be able to continue to pay full benefits to recipients through 2033 if no changes are made to the system. In 2034, the system is projected to be able to pay 80% of benefits to recipients.

President Joe Biden brought up the future of the system in his 2023 State of the Union speech and appeared to receive support from both parties to protect Social Security from near-term cuts in federal budget negotiations. It is unclear to what extent this recent display of bipartisan consensus on the issue has influenced Americans’ opinions about their future Social Security benefits.

Greater optimism about the future of Social Security in recent years comes at a time when Americans’ satisfaction with the Social Security system has also been higher.

Nonretirees Aged 30 to 49 Not Counting on Getting Benefits

Expectations for receiving Social Security benefits vary by age among nonretirees. As might be expected, older nonretirees are fairly confident, with 66% of those aged 50 and older expecting to get benefits.

But it is the next oldest age group, rather than the youngest that is furthest away from retirement, that is least confident. Thirty-seven percent of nonretirees between the ages of 30 and 49 believe they will get Social Security benefits, while 61% do not.

The youngest adults, those aged 18 to 29, are divided -- 50% think they will get benefits, and 48% do not.

Compared with 2015, older and middle-aged nonretirees’ expectations about receiving benefits are not meaningfully different now. Meanwhile, the youngest age group is significantly more likely today (50%) than in 2015 (34%) to predict they will receive benefits.

The youngest nonretirees today are more optimistic about getting Social Security benefits than that age group has been at any point since 2000.

Today, the cohort of 18- to 29-year-olds consists of the youngest millennials and oldest members of Generation Z. In 2015, the 18-to-29 age group included only members of the millennial generation. Many of those people have now aged into the 30-to-49 age bracket and retain more pessimistic views about Social Security.

Politics Modestly Related to Social Security Expectations

Democratic nonretirees (60%) are more likely than Republican (50%) and independent (45%) nonretirees to expect to receive Social Security benefits when they retire.

There are larger party differences in current retirees' faith that their Social Security benefits will be maintained. Democratic retirees (69%) are substantially more confident than Republican retirees (39%) about avoiding cuts to their Social Security benefits. A slim majority of retired independents, 53%, expect to continue receiving their current benefits.

Party differences on these items have been inconsistent over time. For example, the party gap in nonretirees’ belief that they will get Social Security payments is smaller this year than in 2015 (when the difference was 22 percentage points, 59% for Democrats and 37% for Republicans), larger than it was in 2001 and 2010 when there were essentially no party differences, and about the same as it was in 2000 and 2005. When gaps have existed, those who identify with the party of the incumbent president have typically been more positive about the future of Social Security.

Americans Prefer Higher Taxes to Benefit Cuts

Discussions about preserving Social Security in the future largely center on raising payroll taxes of current workers that fund the system, curbing benefits for current and/or future recipients, and possibly raising the age at which retirees can receive full Social Security benefits (currently 67 years old). U.S. adults have typically favored raising Social Security taxes as opposed to curbing benefits as a means of ensuring the long-term future of the system, but they are more likely to favor tax increases now than in the past.

Sixty-one percent of Americans say they would prefer the government raise Social Security taxes, while 31% would rather the government curb Social Security benefits. In three previous surveys in 2005, 2010 and 2015, the margin in favor of increased taxes has been smaller than the 30-point gap seen this year, ranging from nine to 15 points.

Majorities of Democrats (69%) and independents (53%) prefer raising taxes to beef up Social Security, while 39% of Republicans agree. Fifty-six percent of Republicans prefer the government curb Social Security benefits for recipients, a view shared by 44% of independents and 27% of Democrats.

Democrats are more likely today than in the past to favor increased taxes (averaging 59% between 2005 and 2015), while Republicans are now more likely to favor curbing benefits (averaging 45% in those years).

Bottom Line

While policymakers may not share Americans’ increasingly positive outlook, U.S. adults are more optimistic about the future of Social Security, at least as it pertains to them, than they were in Gallup’s most recent surveys in 2010 and 2015. Much of this increased optimism comes from the youngest Americans, who are roughly four decades away from retirement.

Nonretirees are more likely to believe that a 401(k) plan will be a major source of income in their retirement than to say this about Social Security. However, among current retirees, Social Security is the clear leader over other retirement funding sources, underscoring the importance of the system to U.S. seniors.

The subject of Social Security has been an issue in the 2024 presidential campaign. Most candidates have pledged to keep the system largely intact, while some have offered modest proposals to help ensure the system’s longer-term viability.

(Gallup)

08 December 2023

Source: https://news.gallup.com/poll/546890/americans-upbeat-future-social-security-benefits.aspx

 

822-825-43-16/Polls

Most Of Biden’s Appointed Judges To Date Are Women, Racial Or Ethnic Minorities – A First For Any President

Nearly two-thirds of the federal judges President Joe Biden has appointed so far are women, and the same share are members of racial or ethnic minority groups, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of statistics from the Federal Judicial Center.

Biden still has more than a year left in his term, so these patterns could change. But no president has ever appointed a slate of judges consisting mostly of women or racial and ethnic minorities.

A bar chart showing that women account for 66% of the judges Biden had appointed as of Nov. 5.

To put Biden’s judicial appointments into historical context, we examined how his appointed judges to date compare with those of other presidents at the same point in their tenures, going back to Dwight D. Eisenhower in the 1950s. This analysis begins with Eisenhower because he was the first president to be sworn in to a first term on the modern inauguration date of Jan. 20.

As of Nov. 5 – exactly a year before the 2024 presidential election – Biden had appointed 145 judges to the three main tiers of the federal judicial system: the district courts, the appeals courts and the U.S. Supreme Court. Women accounted for just over 66% of those judges (95 of 145).

The 95 women judges Biden had appointed as of Nov. 5 far exceed both the number and share any other president had appointed at the same point in their term. For example, then-President Donald Trump had appointed 36 women judges by the same point four years ago (24% of his total at the time), while then-President Barack Obama had appointed 54 women judges (47% of his total at the time).

The pattern is similar when it comes to judges who are racial or ethnic minorities. Nearly two-thirds of the judges Biden had appointed as of Nov. 5 (96 of 145, or just over 66%) are Black, Hispanic, Asian American or members of another racial or ethnic minority group. That is far more than any other president had appointed at the same point in their tenure. Trump, for instance, had appointed 22 minority judges by the same stage (14% of his total at the time), while Obama had appointed 42 (37% of his total at the time).

Combining gender with race and ethnicity, women who are Black, Hispanic, Asian or part of another racial or ethnic minority group account for 42% of the judges Biden had appointed as of Nov. 5 (61 of 145). They include Biden’s sole appointee to the U.S. Supreme Court, Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson, the first Black woman to serve on the nation’s highest court.

A table showing that, so far, Biden's federal judicial appointees are much more racially and ethnically diverse than those of other recent presidents.

How does Biden compare with other presidents in total judges appointed?

A horizontal stacked bar chart showing Biden's judge appointments to date: Fewer overall than Trump, but more than Obama.

Biden does not especially stand out in terms of the overall number of federal judges he has appointed so far. He appointed 145 judges through Nov. 5 – fewer than Trump had appointed at the same point in his presidency (153), but more than Obama had (115).

Overall, Biden’s appointed judges include one Supreme Court justice (Jackson), 36 appeals court judges and 111 district court judges. Trump, by comparison, had appointed two Supreme Court justices by the same point in his tenure (Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh), in addition to 43 appellate judges and 110 district judges.

Both Biden and Trump appointed some people to multiple judgeships. Biden, for example, appointed Jackson to an appeals court position before elevating her to the Supreme Court. In this analysis, these judges are counted separately for each position, but only once in each president’s total.

How many active federal judges were appointed by Biden?

Another way of looking at the effect that each president has had on the federal judiciary is to evaluate the share of currently active judges who were appointed by that chief executive.

A bar chart showing that around 1 in 5 active federal judges are Biden appointees.

As of Nov. 5, there were 798 active federal judges serving in the 91 district courts and 13 appeals courts governed by Article III of the U.S. Constitution, as well as on the Supreme Court. Biden had appointed 18% of those judges.

Of the federal judges who were active as of Nov. 5, larger shares were appointed by other recent presidents. Trump appointed 28% of active judges, while Obama appointed 31% and George W. Bush appointed 16%. Not surprisingly, relatively few judges who are still active today were appointed by presidents who served more than two decades ago – including Bill Clinton (4%), George H.W. Bush (1%) and Ronald Reagan (1%).

How many active federal judges were appointed by Democratic versus Republican presidents?

The current federal judiciary is closely divided between appointees of Democratic presidents, who comprise 54% of all active judges, and those chosen by Republican presidents, who account for 46%.

However, the breakdown varies by type of court. More than half of active judges in district courts were appointed by Democratic presidents (56%), while a smaller share (44%) were appointed by GOP presidents. The reverse is true in the appeals courts, where 53% of active judges were appointed by Republican presidents and 47% were appointed by Democrats. The Supreme Court consists of six justices appointed by Republican presidents and three justices appointed by Democrats, a 67%-33% split.

(PEW)

4 December 2023

Source: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/12/04/most-of-bidens-appointed-judges-to-date-are-women-racial-or-ethnic-minorities-a-first-for-any-president/

 

822-825-43-17/Polls

Americans’ Views Of The Israel-Hamas War

As the war between Hamas and Israel continues with no end in sight, far more Americans (65%) say Hamas bears a lot of responsibility for the current conflict than say that about the Israeli government (35%).

Bar chart showing nearly two-thirds of Americans say Hamas has ‘a lot’ of responsibility for war; 35% say the same of Israeli govt.

Much smaller shares of Americans say the Palestinian people (20%) and the Israeli people (13%) have a lot of responsibility for the war.

A new Pew Research Center survey, conducted Nov. 27-Dec. 3 among 5,203 adults, finds sizable partisan and age differences on these questions, as well as about many other aspects of the two-month-old war:

  • Majorities of both Republicans and Republican-leaning independents (73%) and Democrats and Democratic leaners (62%) say Hamas has a lot of responsibility for the conflict. But Democrats (50%) are more than twice as likely as Republicans (21%) to say the Israeli government bears a lot of responsibility.
  • About half of adults ages 18 to 29 (46%) say Hamas has a lot of responsibility for the war. That compares with majorities of 60% or more among older age groups. (Explore this further in chapter 1.

Related: About half of Republicans now say the U.S. is providing too much aid to Ukraine

The war between Israel and Hamas has spurred a number of concerns among Americans, including the possibility of a wider regional conflict and terror attacks in this country:

Bipartisan concern over violence against Jews in the U.S.

Dot plot showing bipartisan concern about increasing violence against U.S. Jews; wider partisan differences in concerns over increasing violence against Muslims in the U.S.

Nearly half of Americans (48%) say that when thinking about the war, they are extremely or very concerned about the possibility of increasing violence against Jewish people in the United States.

Another 31% say they are somewhat concerned about this; just 19% have little or no concern about increasing violence against American Jews.

Nearly identical shares of Democrats (49%) and Republicans (48%) say they are extremely or very concerned about the possibility of increasing violence against Jews in this country.

Democrats more likely than Republicans to express concern about increased violence against U.S. Muslims

About half of Democrats (53%) say they are extremely or very concerned about the possibility that violence against Muslims in the U.S. will increase, compared with 22% of Republicans.

While about half of Republicans (53%) say they are at least somewhat concerned about the prospect of rising violence against Muslims in the U.S., 46% say they are not too concerned or not at all concerned about this. That compares with 15% of Democrats. (Explore this further in chapter 2.

Biden administration’s response to Israel-Hamas war viewed more negatively than positively

Stacked bar chart showing by a modest margin, more disapprove than approve of Biden administration’s response to Israel-Hamas war

Roughly a third of adults (35%) approve of the Biden administration’s response to the Israel-Hamas war, while 41% disapprove and 24% are not sure.

  • Republicans disapprove of the administration’s response by about two-to-one (51% disapprove, 28% approve). Democrats are more divided: 44% approve of the administration’s response, 33% disapprove and 22% are not sure.
  • Adults under age 30 are particularly disapproving of the administration’s response to the conflict. Just 19% approve, while 46% disapprove. The administration’s response is viewed less negatively among older age groups.  

Pie chart showing Americans are divided over how Biden 
is dealing with Israelis and Palestinians

Americans generally differ over whether President Joe Biden is striking the right balance in dealing with the Israelis and Palestinians (25%), favoring the Israelis too much (21%), or favoring the Palestinians too much (16%). Nearly four-in-ten adults say they are not sure how Biden is handling this. (Explore this further in chapter 3.

Public is divided in views of Israel’s military operation against Hamas

Americans also differ over Israel’s ongoing military operation against Hamas, with nearly a third (32%) not sure.

Bart chart showing Democrats are more likely than Republicans to say Israel is going too far in its Hamas military operation

About a quarter (27%) say Israel is going too far in its current military operation, while about as many (25%) say it is taking the right approach; 16% of Americans say Israel is not going far enough militarily.

More than four-in-ten Democrats (45%) say Israel is going too far in its military operation against Hamas, compared with 12% of Republicans.

There also are age differences in these opinions, with younger Americans more likely than older age groups to say Israel is going too far.

Other important findings

Bar chart showing Democrats are more likely than Republicans to say that in the future, a way can be found for Israel and an independent Palestinian state to coexist peacefully with each other

About half of Americans say a two-state solution is still possible in the future. Currently, 52% say that, in the future, a way can be found for Israel and an independent Palestinian state to coexist peacefully; 45% say this is not possible. Democrats (62%) are more likely than Republicans (43%) to say that a peaceful, two-state arrangement is possible.

About a quarter of Americans (26%) are following the Israel-Hamas war extremely or very closely. Another 37% say they are following news about the war somewhat closely, while 36% are following not too or not at all closely.

As with most international news events, younger adults are following developments in the conflict less closely than are older people. About a third of adults ages 50 and older (35%) say they are following the war extremely or very closely, roughly double the share of those under 50 (18%).

Americans who have been paying greater attention to news about the war are more likely than others to have an opinion about the administration’s response and to approve of it. Both Democrats and Republicans who have been following the war extremely or very closely give the administration much higher ratings than do those who have been following the conflict less closely.

(PEW)

8 December 2023

Source: https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/12/08/americans-views-of-the-israel-hamas-war/

 

822-825-43-18/Polls

About Half Of Republicans Now Say The U.S. Is Providing Too Much Aid To Ukraine

As the war in Ukraine nears the two-year mark, about three-in-ten Americans (31%) say the United States is providing too much assistance to Ukraine in its fight against Russia, while about half say that the U.S. is providing the right amount of support (29%) or not providing enough (18%).

A horizontal stacked bar chart showing that Americans are split over U.S. support for Ukraine.

The share of Americans who say the U.S. is giving too much support to Ukraine has grown steadily over the course of the war, especially among Republicans.

A new Pew Research Center survey, conducted Nov. 27 to Dec. 3, 2023, among 5,203 members of the Center’s nationally representative American Trends Panel, finds that:

  • 48% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say the U.S. is giving too much aid to Ukraine. This share is up modestly from June, when 44% said this, and is substantially higher than it was at earlier stages in the war.

A vertical stacked bar chart showing that, since Russia’s invasion, Republicans have grown increasingly skeptical of U.S. aid level to Ukraine.

  • Just 16% of Democrats and Democratic leaners view the current level of U.S. aid as excessive. Around four-in-ten Democrats (39%) say the U.S. is providing the right amount of aid, while around a quarter (24%) say the U.S. is not providing enough assistance.
  • Partisan differences over Ukraine aid have grown wider. In the first weeks of the war, Republicans were only 4 percentage points more likely than Democrats to say the U.S. was providing too much aid to Ukraine (9% vs. 5%). Today, Republicans are 32 points more likely to say this.

Public attention to the Russia-Ukraine conflict is little changed in recent months. Six-in-ten Americans, including similar shares of Republicans (62%) and Democrats (61%), say they follow news about the invasion at least somewhat closely.

How much of a threat to the U.S. is Russia’s invasion of Ukraine?

A line chart showing that Democrats remain more likely than Republicans to view Russia’s invasion as a major threat to American interests.

A third of Americans say Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a major threat to U.S. interests. A similar share (34%) say it is a minor threat, while 10% say it is not a threat.

These views have changed only modestly since June. But in March 2022, half of Americans said Russia’s invasion posed a major threat to U.S. interests.

As has been the case for the last year, Democrats are more likely than Republicans to say Russia’s invasion is a major threat (40% vs. 27%). But people in both parties are less likely to say this now than in the early days of the war in March 2022.

Views of the Biden administration’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

A diverging bar chart showing that Americans are split on Biden administration’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Around four-in-ten U.S. adults (39%) say they approve of the Biden administration’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, while a similar share (41%) disapprove. Two-in-ten say they are not sure.

Disapproval of the administration’s response has increased slightly (from 35% to 41%) since June.

A majority of Democrats (59%) approve of the administration’s response, while 22% disapprove. In contrast, a slightly larger majority of Republicans (63%) disapprove of the administration’s response, while 21% approve.

In both parties, somewhat larger shares now disapprove of the Biden administration’s response to the invasion than did so in June, when 57% of Republicans and 16% of Democrats said they disapproved.

(PEW)

8 December 2023

Source: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/12/08/about-half-of-republicans-now-say-the-us-is-providing-too-much-aid-to-ukraine/

 

822-825-43-19/Polls

Older Workers Are Growing In Number And Earning Higher Wages

Line chart showing wages of workers ages 65 and older are catching up to those of younger workers

Roughly one-in-five Americans ages 65 and older (19%) were employed in 2023 – nearly double the share of those who were working 35 years ago.

Not only are older workers increasing in number, but their earning power has grown in recent decades. In 2022, the typical worker age 65 or older earned $22 per hour, up from $13 in 1987.

Earnings for younger workers haven’t grown as much. As a result, the wage gap between older workers and those ages 25 to 64 has narrowed significantly.

Linked to their higher wages, today’s older workers are different from older workers of the past in other important ways:

Bar chart showing today’s older workers are as likely as younger ones to have a four-year college degree

  • They’re working more hours, on average, than in previous decades. Today, 62% of older workers are working full time, compared with 47% in 1987.
  • They’re more likely to have a four-year college degree than in the past. Some 44% of older workers today have a bachelor’s degree or more education, compared with 18% in 1987. That puts them about on par with workers ages 25 to 64.
  • They’re more likely than in previous decades to be receiving employer-provided benefits such as pension plans and health insurance. The same does not hold true for younger workers, whose access to these employer-provided benefits has decreased in recent decades. For example, among workers ages 65 and older, 36% now have the option to participate in an employer- or union-sponsored retirement plan (either an old-style pension or a 401(k)-type plan), up from 33% in 1987. Only 41% of younger workers have access to this type of retirement plan at work, down from 55% in 1987.

Continuing a longstanding trend, older workers are more than twice as likely as younger workers to be self-employed (23% are, compared with 10% of workers ages 25 to 64).

Taking all these factors into account – more older adults in the workforce, working longer hours with higher levels of education and greater pay per hour – older workers’ overall contribution to the labor force has grown quite a bit. In 2023, they accounted for 7% of all wages and salaries paid by U.S. employers. That is more than triple the share in 1987 (2%).

recent Pew Research Center survey found that workers ages 65 and older are more satisfied with their jobs overall than younger workers. They’re also more likely to say they find their job enjoyable and fulfilling all or most of the time, and less likely to say they find it stressful.

In addition to the key findings covered in this overview, the two sections that follow provide more detail on:

Gender, race and the older workforce

The demographic makeup of the U.S. workforce overall has changed substantially in recent decades. Some of those changes reflect broader societal shifts – like more women entering the labor force and going to college. Others are tied to the changing racial and ethnic makeup of the country. These trends can be seen across the older and younger workforces.

By gender

Bar chart showing the gender gap within the older workforce has shrunk significantly in recent decades

Women make up a larger share of the older workforce than they have in the past. Today, women represent 46% of all workers ages 65 and older. By comparison, their share was 40% in 1987 and 33% in 1964.

This trend mirrors the pattern seen among younger workers: Women now make up 47% of employed adults ages 25 to 64, up from 44% in 1987 and 33% in 1964.

In addition, older women who are working today are much more likely than their predecessors to have a four-year college degree: 42% do, compared with only 12% of working older women in 1987. Within the older workforce, women are now about as likely as men to have a bachelor’s degree or more education: 42% and 45% do, respectively.

When it comes to the younger workforce today, women are more likely than men to have a bachelor’s degree or more education. Among workers ages 25 to 64, 49% of women have a four-year college degree, compared with 41% of men.

In years past, men were more likely than women to have a college degree within both the older and younger workforces.

Overall, educational attainment gains among women in the older and younger workforces are likely attributed to growing shares of women getting a four-year college degree over the past few decades. In fact, there are now more women than men among all college-educated workers.

By race and ethnicity

Bar chart showing the older workforce has gotten more racially and ethnically diverse, but still trails the younger workforce

The young adult population is at the forefront of racial and ethnic change in the U.S., and the demographics of the labor force reflect that.

Majorities of both the older and younger workforces are White, but those shares have declined from previous decades. Meanwhile, shares of Black and Hispanic adults have risen within both workforces since 1987.

Still, the younger workforce remains more racially and ethnically diverse. Today, 59% of workers ages 25 to 64 are White, compared with 75% of those 65 and older. And 19% of workers among the younger workforce are Hispanic, compared with 9% of older workers.

In addition, a greater share of younger workers today are foreign born: 20%, compared with 16% of older workers. (Data on shares of foreign- and native-born adults is not available prior to 1994.)

(PEW)

14 December 2023

Source: https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2023/12/14/older-workers-are-growing-in-number-and-earning-higher-wages/

 

822-825-43-20/Polls

Falling Inflation Provides Scant Relief As Canadians Cool Holiday Spending For A Second Year

The holiday shopping season may be underway, but the Grinch of inflation continues to dampen holiday cheer.

New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds Canadians finding little reprieve from a stabilizing inflation situation.

Underscoring how economic conditions continue to drag, the sting of a second year of high consumer prices affecting everything from the cost of vitamins to bread and rent has majorities saying they will spend less on holiday preparations this year (55%) and have cut back on discretionary spending overall in recent months (61%). This continues a trend that emerged last year, when similar numbers said they had cut back.

For seven quarters in a row, more than two-in-five Canadians report feeling left behind as the cost of living rises. Currently, 46 per cent feel they aren’t keeping up financially, nearly quadruple the number who say they are getting ahead (12%). Since the summer, a majority of Canadians have reported they find it difficult to feed their family as prices at the grocery store continue to rise faster than other elements of Statistics Canada’s Consumer Price Index.

The Bank of Canada may be relieved by the recent deceleration of inflation as it considers its next policy rate decision in early December, but Canadians appear more discouraged than not as they look ahead to 2024. Two-in-five (40%) expect to end next year in a similar financial position, while one-third (33%) see their circumstances worsening. Fewer than one-in-five (18%) express optimism that the next 12 months will brighten their financial picture.

More Key Findings:

  • Cost of living stays ahead of the pack of other issues in the eyes of Canadians. Three-in-five (61%) select it as the top issue facing the country, ahead of health care (46%), housing affordability (32%), climate change (24%) and the economy more broadly (21%).
  • Three-in-ten (31%) Canadians are found to be Struggling by ARI’s Economic Stress Index. One-quarter (25%) are Uncomfortable, while equal sized groups are Comfortable (22%) and Thriving (22%).
  • Approaching four-in-five (78%) of the Struggling are spending less on holiday preparations this year, outnumbering the Uncomfortable (64%), Comfortable (47%) and Thriving (20%) who say the same.

About ARI

The Angus Reid Institute (ARI) was founded in October 2014 by pollster and sociologist, Dr. Angus Reid. ARI is a national, not-for-profit, non-partisan public opinion research foundation established to advance education by commissioning, conducting and disseminating to the public accessible and impartial statistical data, research and policy analysis on economics, political science, philanthropy, public administration, domestic and international affairs and other socio-economic issues of importance to Canada and its world.

INDEX

Part One: Cost of living dominates top issues

Part Two: Household finances snapshot

  • More than two-in-five say they’re falling behind, few optimistic for the year ahead
  • Majority say feeding their families difficult
  • Economic Stress Index

Part Three: The season of giving?

  • Canadians cutting back on presents, charitable giving

 

Part One: Cost of living dominates top issues

October economic data brought welcome news for the Bank of Canada. Inflation cooled to an annual rate of 3.1 per cent – nearing the central bank’s target of two per cent – with core inflation measures, which exclude the more volatile items in the Consumer Price Index, down to two-year lows. These among other recent data have many economists expecting the Bank of Canada to hold steady on interest rates in December and anticipating rate decreases as soon as the first half of next year.

The federal government said it was doing its part to keep a lid on inflation by pledging to keep deficits in check as part of its fall economic statement.

That assertion, however, was met with some skepticism from opposition Conservatives as the economic statement added $20 billion of new spending, though many of those measures are aimed at addressing cost of living concerns. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre was quick to point out a report by Scotiabank that found spending by governments – both provincial and federal – drove the Bank of Canada’s policy rate two percentage points higher than it would have gone otherwise.

Still, as politicians point fingers, Canadians are left to deal with the effects of two years of accelerated inflation. Three-in-five (61%) Canadians choose the cost of living as the top issue facing the country currently, continuing to outpace concerns around health care (46%), housing affordability (32%), climate change (24%) and the economy more generally (21%).

The chorus of voices concerned with inflation is loud nationwide, as the rising cost of living ranks as the top issue in every province in the country:

Part Two: Household finances snapshot

More than two-in-five say they’re falling behind, few optimistic for the year ahead

The impacts of prolonged high inflation can be seen in Canadians’ financial assessments. For two years, a plurality of Canadians have said their financial circumstances have declined. Currently more than two-in-five (46%) say that is the case. Prior to 2022, those who felt they had tread water always outweighed those who felt they were sinking under the economic waves:

Financial optimism has also declined steadily since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020. Fewer than one-in-five (18%) feel they will be in a better position financially in one year’s time. Twice as many (40%) instead feel they’ll at best be in a similar position, while one-third (33%) are pessimistic about their financial future:

Majority say feeding their families is difficult

In recent months, food inflation has slowed, but grocery prices still rose 5.4 per cent year-over-year in October, higher than overall rate of inflation. And slowing inflation does not provide relief for Canadians at the grocery store. TD Bank economist Leslie Preston estimated Canadians are paying more than 20 per cent more for their groceries than three years ago, the biggest increase in four decades.

A majority (54%) of Canadians say they find feeding their household difficult, outnumbering the 44 per cent who instead find it easy. These struggles, too, have persisted over the past two years:

Economic Stress Index

The Angus Reid Institute developed the Economic Stress Index in January 2020 to analyze and understand Canadians’ economic circumstances. The Index includes Canadians’ responses to questions appraising their financial circumstances, including concerns over debt, housing costs, and grocery bills (click here to see how the index is scored).

The Economic Stress Index finds three-in-ten (31%) Struggling in the current financial circumstances, one-quarter (25%) Uncomfortable, and smaller groups Comfortable (22%) and Thriving (22%). These proportions are similar to figures seen earlier this year.

Related: Mortgage woes grow: Number of Canadians saying their mortgage is ‘very difficult’ to pay has doubled since March

Economic stress is not distributed evenly across the country. More than one-third in Saskatchewan (38%), Alberta (36%), B.C. (34%) and Atlantic Canada are assessed to be Struggling. Those in Manitoba and Quebec are more likely to be Comfortable and Thriving than others elsewhere in the country (see detailed tables).

Part Three: The season of giving?

As the holiday season approaches, Canadians are varied in their assessments on how they expect to approach the holiday season financially. One-quarter (25%) anticipate spending more, but more (34%) say they will be pinching their pennies. More than one-third (36%) believe they will be spending about the same as they did last year. The youngest Canadian adults are more likely to say they’ll be spending more, while 35- to 54-year-olds say they have a tighter budget than years past:

Canadians cutting back on presents, charitable giving

As rent, mortgages and grocery bills increase, many Canadians say they are cutting discretionary spending. Three-in-five (61%) say they have cut back on unnecessary expenses in recent months and a majority (55%) say their holiday spending has taken a hit as life has become more expensive. Large groups also say they are delaying major purchases (46%), scaling back on charitable giving (37%) and downsizing vacations (35%). These data are similar to figures seen last December, underlining the fact that financial difficulties have persisted for a year.

Those Struggling in this fiscal environment are much more likely to be making cuts to spending in recent months. Nearly all (98%) have cut at least one discretionary element from recent household budgets. Meanwhile, more than two-in-five (44%) of the Thriving have not:

(Angus Reid Institute)

30 November 2023

Source: https://angusreid.org/christmas-econ-canada-holiday-spending-inflation-charitable-giving/

 

AUSTRALIA

822-825-43-21/Polls

Readership Of Magazines Is Up 3.5% From A Year Ago With Increases In Readership For All Magazine Categories

15.1 million Australians read magazines in print or online

Now 11.6 million Australians aged 14+ (53.0%) read print magazines, up 3.5 per cent on a year ago, according to the results released today from the Roy Morgan Australian Readership report for the 12 months to September 2023.

This market broadens to 15.1 million Australians aged 14+ (69.2%) who read magazines in print or online either via the web or an app, which is virtually unchanged from a year ago. These are the latest findings from the Roy Morgan Single Source survey of 65,331 Australians aged 14+ in the 12 months to September 2023.

Print readership increased for an exceptional 14 magazine categories compared to a year ago

The increases in readership were widespread over the last year with a large majority of magazine categories (14 in total) increasing their readership. The final pandemic-era restrictions were lifted by October 2022.

There were five magazine categories to increase their total readership by more than 100,000 people compared to a year ago led by the most widely read magazine category of all, Food & Entertainment magazines, which increased its print readership by 4.3 per cent to 7,494,000.

The second most widely read category of Home & Garden magazines increased their readership by a large 12.1 per cent to 4,251,000 and Mass Women’s magazines were up 4.5 per cent to 2,830,000.

There were also improvements for Business, Financial & Airline magazines, up a large 29.2 per cent to 1,313,000, Health & Family magazines, up 3.6 per cent to 1,333,000, Women’s Fashion Magazines, up 19.9 per cent to 996,000, TV Magazines, up 9.8 per cent to 617,000, Sports Magazines, up 13 per cent to 522,000, Women’s Lifestyle Magazines, up 3.5 per cent to 353,000, Computing, Gaming & Info Tech Magazines, up a large 36.2 per cent to 320,000 and Fishing Magazines, up 13.7 per cent to 257,000.

Eight of the top 10 magazines increased their print readership over the past year with Better Homes & Gardens and The Australian Women’s Weekly again the most widely read paid magazines

An impressive eight of the top 10 most widely read magazines increased their print readership over the last year and looking more broadly an impressive 20 out of the top 25.

Better Homes & Gardens is Australia’s most widely read paid magazine with print readership of 1,805,000, up 10.9 per cent on a year ago ahead of the The Australian Women’s Weekly on 1,336,000, up 8.3 per cent.

In the top ten magazines the biggest improver from a year ago is the National Geographic which has increased its readership by an impressive 22.5 per cent to 1,011,000 and is one of only three paid magazines with a readership of over 1 million.

Two other paid magazines in the top ten have increased their print readership over the last year led by Woman’s Day, up 4.3 per cent to 783,000 and House & Garden with a large increase of 20.4 per cent to 696,000.

Fresh Ideas & Coles magazine are the most widely read with around 5 million readers each

Australia's two most widely read free magazines are Fresh Ideas (from Woolworths) with a growing print readership of 5,058,000, up 6.1 per cent on a year ago just ahead of Coles magazine with readership increasing 3.1 per cent to 4,970,000.

Bunnings magazine is the third most widely read free magazine with a print readership of 1,834,000, up 16.5 per cent on a year ago, ahead of the NRMA’s magazine Open Road (NSW) which rounds out the top four free magazines with a readership of 1,247,000.

Other magazines to increase their print readership over the past year included Take 5 Bumper Monthly, up 5.6 per cent to 546,000, Take 5 (Weekly), up 2.5 per cent to 493,000, Qantas Magazine, up 38.7 per cent to 491,000 (the largest increase of any of the top 15 most widely read magazines as Australians returned to travelling), That’s Life!, up 3.8 per cent to 489,000, Australian Geographic, up 25.5 per cent to 487,000, Gardening Australia, up 8.0 per cent to 472,000, Vogue Australia, up 29.3 per cent to 461,000, AFL Record, up 47.4 per cent to 401,000, TV Week, up 8.8 per cent to 395,000, Home Beautiful, up 28.2 per cent to 391,000 and Reader’s Digest Australia, up 8.7 per cent to 362,000 and Marie Claire, up 29.7 per cent to 307,000 and the fastest growing fashion title in Australia.

Top 25 Magazines by print readership – September 2023
(Magazines in bold are up on a year ago)

Publication

Sep 2022

Sep 2023

% Change

 

‘000s

‘000s

%

Fresh Ideas

4,769

5,058

6.1%

Coles magazine

4,819

4,970

3.1%

Bunnings magazine

1,574

1,834

16.5%

Better Homes & Gardens

1,627

1,805

10.9%

The Australian Women’s Weekly

1,234

1,336

8.3%

Open Road (NSW)

1,349

1,247

-7.6%

National Geographic

825

1,011

22.5%

Woman’s Day

751

783

4.3%

House & Garden

578

696

20.4%

Road Ahead (Qld)

672

640

-4.8%

New Idea

612

561

-8.3%

That’s Life! Mega Monthly

569

554

-2.6%

Take 5 Bumper Monthly

517

546

5.6%

Take 5 (Weekly)

481

493

2.5%

Qantas Magazine

354

491

38.7%

That’s Life!

471

489

3.8%

Australian Geographic

388

487

25.5%

Gardening Australia

437

472

8.0%

Vogue Australia

356

461

29.3%

AFL Record (Apr-Sep)

272

401

47.4%

TV Week

363

395

8.8%

Home Beautiful

305

391

28.2%

Reader’s Digest Australia

333

362

8.7%

Marie Claire

237

307

29.7%

Street Machine

321

304

-5.3%

Full Magazine Print Readership Results available to view here.

The five most read categories of magazines by print readership

  • Food & Entertainment (7,494,000 Australians, 34.4% of the population);
  • Home & Garden (4,251,000 Australians, 19.5% of the population);
  • General Interest (4,084,000 Australians, 18.7% of the population);
  • Mass Women’s (2,830,000 Australians, 13.0% of the population);
  • Health & Family (1,333,000 Australians, 6.1% of the population).

Food & Entertainment magazines number one with total print readership of almost 7.5 million

Food & Entertainment is again Australia's best performing magazine category and is now read by 7,494,000 Australians, or 34.4% of the population – over 3 million ahead of any other category. This is an increase of over 300,000, up 4.3 per cent, on a year ago with an impressive six out of the seven titles in the category increasing their print readership compared to a year ago.

The free supermarket titles remain the clear leaders in the category led by Woolworth’s Fresh Ideas read by 5,058,000 Australians, up 289,000 (up 6.1 per cent) on a year ago, just ahead of Coles magazine with a print readership of 4,970,000, up 151,000 (up 3.1 per cent).

There were also increases for Delicious, up 1.8 per cent to 289,000, Australian Gourmet Traveller, up 7.3 per cent to readership of 220,000, Cooking with Australian Women’s Weekly, up 21.6 per cent to a readership of 124,000 and New Idea Food, up 1 per cent to 106,000.

Home & Garden magazines are in second place and read by over 4.2 million Australians

Home & Garden magazines are now read by 4,251,000 Australians, up a large 459,000 (up 12.1 per cent) on a year ago accounting for almost one-in-five Australians (19.5% of the population). There were a majority of eleven (out of 17) magazines in the category to increase their print readership on a year ago.

Australia’s most widely read paid magazine is again Better Homes & Gardens with a print readership of 1,805,000 – 1.1 million more than any other paid magazine in the category and up 10.9 per cent on a year ago.

The most widely read Home & Garden magazine is the freely available Bunnings magazine which is now read by 1,834,000, up 16.5 per cent on a year ago, and is the only other magazine in the category with a readership over 1 million.

Other well-known and widely read magazines in this category include House & Garden with a growing readership of 696,000, up 20.4 per cent on a year ago, Gardening Australia with a readership of 472,000, up 8 per cent on a year ago, Home Beautiful with a readership of 391,000, up 28.2 per cent on a year ago and Vogue Living with a readership of 250,000, up 17.4 per cent on a year ago.

Other magazines to grow their print readership over the last year were Organic Gardener, up 20.6 per cent to 170,000, Inside Out, up 8.2 per cent to 132,000, Australian Country Homes, up 48.6 per cent to 107,000, Home Design, up 3.3 per cent to 95,000 and Backyard & Outdoor Living, up 70.5 per cent to 75,000.

Print readership of General Interest magazines virtually unchanged at almost 4.1 million

4,084,000 Australians, or 18.7% of the population, read at least one of the general interest magazines in the year to September 2023 and there were four magazines to increase their print readership.

National Geographic was the clear standout magazine and increased its readership by an impressive 22.5 per cent to 1,011,000 to be one of only three paid magazines read by over 1 million Australians

Another magazine to see a large increase in readership was Australian Geographic with a print readership of 487,000 (up 25.5 per cent). Also increasing their readership were Reader’s Digest Australia, up 8.7 per cent to a readership of 362,000 and Big Issue, with a print readership of 303,000 after an increase of 27.8 per cent – the largest percentage increase of any magazine in the category..

There were also strong performances by motoring club magazines: Open Road (NSW) read by 1,247,000, Road Ahead (Qld) read by 640,000, Horizons (WA) read by 268,000 and SA Move read by 190,000.

Mass Women’s magazines are now read by over 2.8 million Australians – up 4.5 per cent

Mass Women’s magazines are now read by 2,830,000 Australians equal to 13 per cent of the population, and up 4.5 per cent on a year ago. The category includes five magazines read by more than 500,000 people – more than any other category.

Easily the most widely read magazine in the category is The Australian Women’s Weekly with a print readership of 1,336,000, an increase of 8.3 per cent on a year ago ahead of second-placed Woman’s Day with a readership of 783,000, up 4.3 per cent on a year ago.

The popular ‘competition-focused’ magazines are also widely read led by That’s Life! Mega Monthly read by 554,000, Take 5 Bumper Monthly with a readership of 546,000, an increase of 5.6 per cent on a year ago, Take 5 (Weekly) with a readership of 493,000, up 2.5 per cent on a year ago and That’s Life, up 3.8 per cent from a year ago and read by 489,000.

Another widely read magazine in the category is the third-placed New Idea with a readership of 561,000. The biggest increase in the category was achieved by Royals Monthly (by New Idea) which, during a year in which Queen Elizabeth passed on and King Charles ascended to the throne, increased readership by 269,000, or 25.7 per cent on a year ago.

Health & Family magazines increase their print readership by 3.6% from a year ago

Overall the Health & Family magazines print readership increased by a 3.6 per cent to 1,333,000 (6.1% of the population) with four out of the five magazines in the category increasing their readership.

Leading the way was  by Diabetic Living, up 19.6 per cent to 275,000 and WellBeing, up 45.2 per cent to 244,000. There was also an increase for Prevention by 1.3 per cent to 76,000 while the third most widely read magazine in the category was Healthy Food Guide with a readership of 160,000.

Women’s Fashion and Business & Financial magazines increase their readership

There was growth in several smaller magazine categories with the Women’s Fashion, Business, Financial & Airline, Women’s Lifestyle, TV, Sports, Music & Movies, Motorcycle, Fishing, Computer, Gaming & Info Tech and Crafts categories all increasing their print readership in the 12 months to September 2023.

Women’s Fashion magazines performed well over the last year increasing category readership by 19.9 per cent to 996,000. All four continuing magazines increased their readership led by Marie Claire, up by a category leading 29.7 per cent to 307,000 and Vogue Australia, the most widely read magazine in the category, up 29.3 per cent to 461,000. Also increasing were Frankie, up 15.3 per cent to 285,000 and Harper’s Bazaar, up 14.6 per cent to 164,000.

Business, Financial & Airline magazines increased their readership by 29.2 per cent to 1,313,000 over the last year led by Qantas Magazine, up 38.7 per cent to 491,000, Money Magazine, up 9.9 per cent to 222,000, Time, up 19.5 per cent to 221,000, The Monthly, up 12.9 per cent to 192,000 and New Scientist, up 1.4 per cent to 213,000.

Women’s Lifestyle magazines were an excellent performer over the last year growing overall print readership by 3.5 per cent to 353,000. Two of the magazines in the category increased their readership on a year ago led by English Woman’s Weekly, up 5.2 per cent to 122,000, ahead of MindFood which increased its readership by 5.6 per cent to 94,000.

Motorcycle magazines are read by 193,000 Australians, up 2.1 per cent on a year ago and three of the four magazines in the category increased their readership on a year ago. The magazines to grow their readership were Australian Motorcycle News, up 9.1 per cent to 108,000, Road Rider, up an impressive 23.1 per cent to 48,000 and Dirt Action, up 2 per cent to 50,000.

Other magazines to perform strongly included the AFL Record (Apr-Sep), up an excellent 47.4 per cent to 401,000, TV Week, up 8.8 per cent to 395,000, Wheels, up 29.2 per cent to 292,000, Foxtel Magazine, up 21.7 per cent to 264,000, Rolling Stone, up 10.5 per cent to 243,000, Just Cars, up 10 per cent to 232,000, Golf Australia, up 16.4 per cent to 149,000, Fresh Water Fishing Australia, up 51.7 per cent to 132,000, Play Australia Magazine, up 65.8 per cent to 126,000, APC, up 29.4 per cent to 110,000, PC Powerplay, up 6.1 per cent to 87,000, Homespun, up 16.9 per cent to 76,000 and Quilters Companion, up 4.6 per cent to 68,000.

Are Media’s ‘Now to Love’ digital platform is accessed by around 1 million Australians

The results for the 12 months to September 2023 for Magazine Publishers are strong with the 4 week digital platform audience data showing Are Media’s ‘Now to Love’ website attracting an audience of around 1 million Australians in an average 4 week period. Are Media’s ‘Now to Love’ platform allows advertisers to reach their audience in new ways with innovative online offerings.

Many of Are Media’s magazine brands (including The Australian Women’s Weekly, Woman’s Day, Take 5 and TV Week) consolidate their online presence on the ‘Now to Love’ platform. Of those magazines, Woman’s Day reaches a total cross-platform audience of over 2.5 million people while The Australian Women’s Weekly reaches over 2.2 million people.

In addition, other magazines with wide audiences include Better Homes & Gardens with an audience of almost 2.3 million, Are Media’s Take 5 (weekly), TV Week and New Idea with total audiences of well over 1.7 million and Take 5 Bumper Monthly and with an audience of over 1.5 million readers.

Top 15 Magazines – Total Cross-Platform Audience

 

Print
(4 weeks)

Digital
(4 weeks)
(incl. Apple News)

Total CPA
(4 weeks)
(incl. Apple News)

Publication

12m to Sep 2023 (000's)

12m to Sep 2023
(000's)

12m to Sep 2023
(000's)

Woman's Day

1,632

1,029

2,505

Better Homes & Gardens

1,805

578

2,273

The Australian Women's Weekly

1,336

1,035

2,244

Take 5 (weekly)

860

972

1,769

TV Week

853

972

1,761

New Idea

1,169

660

1,745

Take 5 Bumper Monthly

546

972

1,459

National Geographic

1,011

390

1,366

Delicious

289

885

1,148

Time

531

646

1,134

House & Garden

696

458

1,125

That’s Life!

867

133

981

Vogue

461

443

878

Street Machine

304

459

743

Wheels

292

468

729

Full Magazine Total Cross-Platform Audience results available to view here.

Total cross-platform audience includes print – average issue readership and digital – website visitation and app usage in an average 4 weeks.. #For additional detail on the platforms available for each magazine visit the Roy Morgan website.

Michele Levine, CEO, Roy Morgan, says readership of magazines has increased impressively over the last year with 14 magazine categories increasing their readership compared to a year ago:

“The latest Roy Morgan readership survey shows 15.1 million Australians (69.2% of all Australians aged 14+) now read magazines whether in print or online while print readership has grown strongly over the last year and is up 3.5 per cent to 11.6 million.

“The excellent result shows magazine readership increasing across 14 out of 16 magazine categories – including nine categories which increased readership by over five per cent on a year ago.

“The most impressive increase was for the Home & Garden Magazines which increased print readership by 12.1 per cent to 4,251,000 – an increase of over 450,000 from a year ago. Of the 17 magazines in the category there were 11 that experienced an increase and an exceptional eight that increased their readership by at least 10 per cent.

“Other significant results were recorded by Food & Entertainment Magazines, up 4.3 per cent to 7,494,000, Mass Women’s Magazines, up 4.5 per cent to 2,830,000, Health & Family Magazines, up 3.6 per cent to 1,333,000, Business, Financial & Airline Magazines, up 29.2 per cent to 1,313,000, Women’s Fashion Magazines, up 19.9 per cent to 996,000, Sports Magazines, up 13 per cent to 522,000 and Women’s Lifestyle Magazines, up 3.5 per cent to 353,000.

“The most popular magazines continue to draw large audiences to their print editions and over 1.8 million people now read Better Homes & Gardens, up an impessive 10.9 per cent on a year ago.

“In addition, over 1.3 million (up 8.3 per cent) read The Australian Women’s Weekly, over 1 million (up 22.5 per cent) read National Geographic, over 780,000 read Woman’s Day (up 4.3 per cent) and over 690,000 read House & Garden (up 20.4 per cent).

“The full cross-platform and print readership results for the year to September 2023 show magazines are reaching a large majority of Australians – 15.1 million either in print or online via the web or app. Magazines are an excellent medium to reach valuable audiences of all ages that have more discretionary income to spend than the average Australian.”

(Roy Morgan)

28 November 2023

Source: https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9397-australian-magazine-print-readership-and-cross-platform-audiences-september-2023

 

822-825-43-22/Polls

There Were Nearly Two Million Extra Vehicle Insurance Policies In 2023

New data from Roy Morgan shows that there were nearly two million more vehicle insurance policies in 2023 compared to 2022.

The substantial increase in Australia’s population after the winding down of COVID restrictions has contributed to an increasing number of registered motor vehicles on Australian roads. More motor vehicles have boosted the number of vehicle insurance policies, with the number increasing by 1.6 million between October 2022 (32.1 million) and October 2023 (33.7 million).

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia). Base: Australians aged 18+; Nov21-Oct22, n=53,865 , Nov22-Oct23, n=53,211; Excluding ‘can’t say’ responses. *Derived from the question “Which types of (car) insurance cover do you personally have…including in your name and jointly with someone else?”

These are some of the latest findings from Roy Morgan’s Single Source insurance data derived from in-depth personal interviews conducted with over 60,000 Australians per annum.

Australians looked for a better deal for more vehicle insurance policies in 2023 than in 2022.

The increasing cost of living over the last two years is putting pressure on family budgets and driving more people to look around for the best deals on offer, although most are still deciding to renew their policies with the same company.

In the year to October 2023, 7.7% of vehicle insurance policies switched to another company (equating to 2.6 million vehicle policies), and 25.9% (equating to 8.7 million vehicle policies) were renewed after approaching another company. In total, people looked for a better deal for 11.3 million vehicle policies, up from 10.5 million vehicle policies in the year to October 2022.

Of the remaining vehicle insurance policies, in the year to October 2023, 20.3 million policies were renewed without approaching another company and 2.1 million policies were purchased by those taking out vehicle insurance for the first time (“new entrants”).

Action taken with vehicle insurance policies in the last 12 months (2022 vs. 2023)*:

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia). Base: Australians aged 18+; Vehicle Insurance (incl CTP) customers, Nov21-Oct23, n=53,865, Nov22-Oct23, n=53,211; Excluding ‘can’t say’ responses. *Note: There were 1.6m more policies in October 2023 compared to 12 months earlier. Considering there were 2.1m ‘new entrant’ policies in October 2023, this indicates 500,000 policies were not renewed in the 12 months to October 2023.

In 2023 an increasing number of vehicle insurance policies were purchased by new entrants taking out vehicle insurance for the first time. AAMI, Allianz and NRMA have the largest share among new entrants’ vehicle insurance policies.

In the year to October 2023, 6.3% of vehicle insurance policies were purchased by new entrants, equating to 2.1 million policies. This was an increase from 12 months earlier, when only 5.9% of vehicle insurance policies were purchased by new entrants, equating to 1.9 million policies.

Analysing the company specific data on vehicle insurance closely shows that some companies are performing better than others at securing vehicle insurance policies among new entrants. AAMI had the largest share in the 12 months to October 2023 (with 12.1% of vehicle insurance policies), ahead of Allianz (9.7%) and NRMA (8.8%). These organisations were followed by Budget Direct (8.3%), Suncorp Insurance (5.9%), and RACQ (5.8%).

New entrants – percentage of policies in 2023 by insurer

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia). Base: Australians aged 18+; Vehicle Insurance (incl CTP) customers, Nov22-Oct23, n=53,865 , Nov22-Oct23, n=53,211; Excluding ‘can’t say’ responses.

Michele Levine, CEO, Roy Morgan, says an increasing number of Australians are ‘shopping around’ before renewing their vehicle insurance policies, but over 85% of policy holders eventually stick with the same company:

“The latest Roy Morgan data on vehicle insurance policies shows that in the year to October 2023 over 11.3 million vehicle insurance policies were at risk of being switched to another provider, up from around 10.5 million 12 months ago.

“Of the 11.3 million at risk policies in the vehicle insurance market, the large majority, around 8.7 million, were eventually renewed with the same company. However, this does leave 2.6 million vehicle insurance policies that were eventually switched.

“These figures show the number of policies at risk of being switched increased in the last year coinciding with the highest level of inflation in over 30 years and the most rapid increase in interest rates this century, up 4% points since May 2022 to 4.1% in October 2023. This appears to be leading people to monitor their ongoing costs closely.

“The data highlighted here is only a small portion of what is available from Roy Morgan on all types of vehicle insurance and can be trended over many years. The information is derived from in-depth personal interviews conducted with over 1,000 Australians per week and over 60,000 per year.

“To learn more about what drives the decisions of policy holders in the various insurance markets and how to tap into the business opportunities available for insurers contact Roy Morgan.”

(Roy Morgan)

04 December 2023

Source: https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/vehicle-insurance-policies-in-2023

 

822-825-43-23/Polls

Australian Employment Increased To Over 14 Million For The First Time In November, But Still Over 3 Million Unemployed Or Under-Employed

In November 2023 Australian employment hit a record high of over 14 million for the first time with over 9 million now employed full-time and over 5 million employed part-time.

However, despite surging employment – up by 430,000 compared to a year ago – a massive 3.04 million Australians (19.6% of the workforce) were unemployed or under-employed in November.

‘Real’ unemployment was down 0.2% to 9.7% - an estimated 1,505,000 Australians (down 37,000) in November. There were more people looking for full-time jobs (up 20,000 to 626,000) but many fewer people looking for part-time jobs (down 57,000 to 879,000) compared to a month ago. In addition, there were a further 1,532,000 Australians (down 45,000) now under-employed.

The November Roy Morgan Unemployment estimates were obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section of people aged 14+. A person is classified as unemployed if they are looking for work, no matter when. The ‘real’ unemployment rate is presented as a percentage of the workforce (employed & unemployed).

  • Employment increased to a new record high in November with record high part-time employment:

Australian employment increased by 51,000 to a new record high of 14,010,000 in November. The increase was due to a rise in part-time employment, up 52,000 to a new record high of 5,002,000 while full-time employment was virtually unchanged at 9,008,000.

  • Unemployment was down in November with significantly fewer people looking for part-time work:

In November 1,505,000 Australians were unemployed (9.7% of the workforce), a decrease of 37,000 from October. There were 879,000 (down 57,000) looking for part-time work but 626,000 (up 20,000) now looking for full-time work.

  • The workforce increased by almost 600,000 from a year ago to a record high over 15.5 million people:

The workforce in November was 15,515,000 (up 14,000 from October, and up a massive 597,000 from a year ago) – comprised of 14,010,000 employed Australians (up 51,000 from a month ago) and 1,505,000 unemployed Australians looking for work (down 37,000).

  • Overall unemployment and under-employment down 0.5% points in November to 19.6%:

In addition to the unemployed, a further 1.53 million Australians (9.9% of the workforce) were under-employed, i.e. working part-time but looking for more work, down 45,000 from October. In total 3.04 million Australians (19.6% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in November.

Compared to early March 2020, before the nation-wide lockdown, in November 2023 there were almost 900,000 more Australians either unemployed or under-employed (+4% points) even though overall employment (14,010,000) is over 1.1 million higher than it was pre-COVID-19 (12,872,000).

ABS Comparison

Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 9.7% is more than double the ABS estimate of 3.7% for October but is almost identical with the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 10.0%.

The latest monthly figures from the ABS indicate that the people working fewer hours in October 2023 due to illness, injury or sick leave was 453,300. This is around 102,000 higher than the pre-pandemic average of the six years to October 2019 (351,750) – a difference of 101,550.

If this higher than pre-pandemic average of workers (101,550) is added to the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 1,479,400 we find a total of 1,580,950 people could be considered unemployed or under-employed, equivalent to 10.7% of the workforce.

Roy Morgan Unemployment & Under-employment (2019-2023)

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source January 2019 – November 2023. Average monthly interviews 5,000.
Note: Roy Morgan unemployment estimates are actual data while the ABS estimates are seasonally adjusted.

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says Australian employment increased to a record high of over 14 million in November and up 430,000 from a year ago, but there are still over 3 million Australians unemployed or under-employed – nearly one-fifth of the workforce:

“The latest Roy Morgan employment estimates for November show the Australian workforce and people employed continue to grow strongly. The Australian workforce hit a new record high over 15.5 million, over 14 million Australians were employed for the first time and over 5 million Australians are now in part-time employment – also a new record high.

“There are also over 3 million Australians either unemployed or under-employed for only the fourth time this year. The latest estimates show 1,505,000 Australians were unemployed (9.7% of the workforce) and a further 1,532,000 were under-employed (9.9%) in November.

“As we have stated all year a big reason for these record highs, and continuing high unemployment and under-employment, is the large growth in the size of the Australian population over the last year. The increases are driven by a record high annual population increase of 817,000 since November 2022.

“This level of increase is almost three times larger than the long-term average over the last 25 years during which the Australian population increased on an annual basis by an average of 278,000.

“The rapidly growing population has led to increases in employment metrics across the board. The Australian workforce has increased by almost 600,000 from a year ago to 15,515,000 and overall employment is up 430,000 to 14,010,000. The employed consists of full-time employment at 9,008,000 and part-time employment of 5,002,000.

“Unfortunately, there has also been a significant increase in labour under-utilisation over the last year as the economy has been unable to find new jobs for all those joining the workforce. Unemployment has increased by 167,000 and under-employment increased by 155,000. Overall labour under-utilisation is therefore up by 322,000 from a year ago to 3,037,000 – near post-pandemic highs.

“The high net immigration that is powering this growth in the labour market has kept Australia out of a recession over the last two years with the latest ABS quarterly GDP growth for September 2023 showed the economy growing at only 0.2% for the quarter – less than the rate of population growth.

“However, the swelling workforce is increasingly unable to provide the right type of jobs for all those who need them with over 3 million Australians looking for work or looking for more work. Tackling this continuing high level of unemployment and under-employment must be the number one priority for the Federal Government over the next year.

(Roy Morgan)

12 December 2023

Source: https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9378-australian-unemployment-estimates-november-2023

 

822-825-43-24/Polls

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Jumps 4.4pts To 80.8 After The RBA Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged – The Highest For Over Ten Months Since Early February 2023

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence jumped 4.4pts to 80.8 this week after the RBA left interest rates unchanged at last week’s final meeting for the year. However, despite the increase, Consumer Confidence has now spent a record 45 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is now 2.1pts below the same week a year ago, December 5-11, 2022 (82.9) and nearly 3 points above the 2023 weekly average of 77.8.

Looking around the States Consumer Confidence was up in most States including New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, and Western Australia, but down slightly in South Australia.

The drivers of this week’s strong increase related to views on personal financial situations and the Australian economy’s performance whereas buying sentiment was virtually unchanged.

Current financial conditions

  • Now over a fifth of Australians, 22% (up 3ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year (the highest figure for this indicator for over nine months since February 2023) compared to a slim majority of 51% (down 6ppts) that say their families are ‘worse off’.

Future financial conditions

  • Looking forward, nearly a third of Australians, 31% (down 1ppt), expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year while 33% (down 3ppts), expect to be ‘worse off’ (the lowest figure for this indicator for over ten months since January 2023).

Current economic conditions

  • A slightly increased 9% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months (incredibly, this is the highest figure for this indicator for over 18 months since May 2022 – just after the RBA first raised interest rates) compared to over a third, 36% (down 3ppts), that expect ‘bad times’.

Future economic conditions

  • Net sentiment regarding the Australian economy in the longer term has improved this week with 13% (up 2ppts) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to under a fifth, 18% (down 4ppts), expecting ‘bad times’ (the lowest figure for this indicator for over nine months since early March 2023).

Time to buy a major household item

  • Buying intentions were virtually unchanged this week with 20% (unchanged) of Australians saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items while a slim majority of 53% (down 1ppt), say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

ANZ Senior Economist, Adelaide Timbrell, commented:

Homeowners seem to be buoyed by rising home prices and the stable cash rate after the RBA left the cash rate on hold last week. ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose to its highest since February 2023 driven by stronger confidence among homeowners (both indebted and outright owners). Inflation expectations are at their second-lowest result in six months, and confidence about the economy has improved markedly. Economic confidence about the coming year hit its second-highest level since February and confidence about the economy over the five-year horizon hit its best result since March. But a large share of households still do not think it is a good time to buy a household item, despite seasonal discounting.

(Roy Morgan)

12 December 2023

Source: https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9380-anz-roy-morgan-consumer-confidence-december-12

 

MULTICOUNTRY STUDIES

822-825-43-25/Polls

Seven In Ten People Anticipate Climate Change Will Have A “Severe Effect” In Their Area Within The Next Ten Years, A Survey Across 31 Nations

This Ipsos study, released ahead of the COP28 UN Climate Change Conference, provides a new assessment on how people feel about climate change right now – focusing on what they see around them and what they think about actions being taken to address the challenges it brings.

Key findings:

Commenting on the findings, Lauren Demar, Ipsos Chief Sustainability Officer and Head of ESG, said:

"As the world’s leaders gather at COP, this latest Ipsos research reveals a stark reality—with the majority of people not only witnessing the severe impacts of climate change but bracing for its escalation. A staggering seven in ten expect climate change will profoundly affect their local areas within the next decade.

Our research underscores a critical disconnect. There is a pervasive sentiment that both governments and businesses are not matching the public’s concerns with equivalent levels of action and transparency."

The IMPACT of Climate Change

Almost six in ten (57%) report a severe effect of climate change in the area where they live, but this varies greatly by country. Reported climate change impact is highest in Mexico (81%), Brazil (79%) and Türkiye (79%). Just two countries - Great Britain and Sweden - have less than two-fifths of people reporting severe effects (34% and 24% respectively). Looking across all 31 nations, it’s people in Latin America who are particularly concerned, with six of the top ten countries being from the region.

And looking ahead, the number expecting climate change to have a severe impact on their area over the next ten years stands at 71% (global country average). Six countries record eight in ten believing this – with the figure going up to nearly nine in ten (88%) in South Korea.

Extending the timeline, around two-fifths (38%) expect that they will be displaced from their home within the next 25 years, with the highest levels of concern in Türkiye (68%) and Brazil (61%). The least concerned countries are all European – in Great Britan, Poland, Sweden, Germany and the Netherlands, the proportion expecting they will have to move stands at one in four or lower.

INFORMATION on Climate Change

On a global average, people don’t believe that the information available to them is enough to help them take the right steps. Faith in governments, businesses and the media seems to be lacking.

Six in ten global citizens say that governments and businesses in their country do not provide the right amount of information on climate change (59% and 61% respectively).

When it comes to the media, just 24% globally say they provide good representation about the impacts, with 42% believing they underestimate its effects and 23% saying they exaggerate what climate change will mean. Here again, the context varies considerably by country. In Latin America, there is quite a strong sense that the media underestimates the impact. Meanwhile, there is a marked lack of consensus on the media’s portrayal of climate change in India, Netherlands, Australia, Germany and the United States.

Taking ACTION on Climate Change

A little over a third (36%) of citizens globally believe their government is working hard to tackle climate change. In 21 out of the 31 countries, over half the population say that their government is not working hard enough, or even doing anything at all, to fight climate change.

In Argentina, as few as 9% of citizens think their government is working hard on the issue. People in Peru (13%) and Japan (19%) also give their administrations low marks.

Confidence in businesses’ efforts to tackle climate change is also low, with 32% saying they work hard but 59% saying they aren’t doing enough.

Globally, 71% think that businesses use environmental claims without committing to real change at least occasionally, including 37% who say they do this frequently or all the time. This latter figure rises to 48% in Britain.

This being said, citizens also feel that they themselves are not doing enough to combat climate change. Three-fifths (59%) say people in their country are not working hard enough, or at all, with those in LATAM particularly critical – Peru (79%), followed by Argentina (77%) and Colombia (77%).

(Ipsos Global)

27 November 2023

Source: https://www.ipsos.com/en/seven-in-ten-people-anticipate-climate-change-will-have-severe-effect-their-area-within-next-ten-years

 

822-825-43-26/Polls

Data Dive: Gen Z Women Are Struggling The Most With Stress, Mental Health Issues, A Survey Across 31 Countries

Life is hard.

And our recent global polling finds Generation Z women* are finding it quite difficult to cope these days.

“I’m not particularly surprised to see that young women show lower levels of mental wellbeing as this is a consistent theme in research that we have been conducting over the past number of years,” says Kieran O’Leary, Director of Public Affairs for Ipsos in Ireland.

Helio Gastaldi, Director of Public Affairs for Ipsos in Brazil, concurs, noting that it’s been a pretty rough few years for young men and women. “During the pandemic young Brazilians were hit hardest by mental health issues due to the imposed social isolation, the impossibility of attending face-to-face classes and the drastic reduction in employment and work possibilities, which brought greater pressure in an already very sensitive phase in people’s lives.”

Plus, young women are facing a whole extra cluster of threats and pressures, says Lucy Neiland, Research Director of Ethnography for Ipsos in the U.K. For example, globally one in three women experience physical or sexual violence from an intimate partner, or sexual violence from a non-partner, across their lifetime, according to the World Health Organization.

Perhaps Gen Z women are particularly frustrated with this grim state of affairs as demonstrated via the high turnout at the marches in response to the killing of Giulia Cecchettin, a 22-year-old biomedical engineering student in Italy, Neiland says.

Also, against the backdrop of austerity and the rise in the cost of living in many countries, there seems to be a movement to double down on more ‘traditional’ gender roles, she says.

“What we are hearing is the view that women have got their slice of the pie and now they’re encroaching into the men’s share — things have ‘gone too far.’ So, there is a backlash — perhaps because this is an easier narrative than unpicking the social/political structures and rigid gender roles that have got us here. What perhaps seems unfair to Gen Z girls and women is the assumption they have a piece of the pie at all.”

Given all of these factors it makes sense that so many young women are hurting so much.

Plus, everything from the coronavirus crisis to the invasion of Ukraine to climate change to inflation has put people of all ages and life stages on edge. Below, we dive deeper into how everyone, from Gen Zers to Baby Boomers, is holding up in these tumultuous times.

On the brighter side, while Gen Z and Millennial women are currently finding things difficult, our polling shows the proportion of women dealing with serious depression appears to trend downwards with age.

“Women are more attentive and more concerned about health issues in general than the male population,” says Gastaldi. But, even given the caveat that women may feel more comfortable talking about and admitting they’re having a tough time, young women are the most likely demographic in Brazil to report struggling, with almost three in five (58%) Brazilian Gen Z women and close to half (48%) of Brazilian Gen Z men reporting being severely depressed to the point they felt sad/hopeless almost every day for a couple of weeks or more.

On the brighter side, while Gen Z and Millennial women are currently finding things difficult, our polling shows the proportion of women dealing with serious depression appears to trend downwards with age.

“Women are more attentive and more concerned about health issues in general than the male population,” says Gastaldi. But, even given the caveat that women may feel more comfortable talking about and admitting they’re having a tough time, young women are the most likely demographic in Brazil to report struggling, with almost three in five (58%) Brazilian Gen Z women and close to half (48%) of Brazilian Gen Z men reporting being severely depressed to the point they felt sad/hopeless almost every day for a couple of weeks or more.

  1. Age of Anxiety
    Living through such a topsy-turvy era predictably has many seriously struggling, particularly those trying to navigate early adulthood.

This lines up with what O’Leary is seeing in Ireland, where 58% of Gen Z females and 40% of Gen Z males said they feel so stressed they felt like they couldn’t cope.

“Our ongoing Healthy Ireland Survey measures mental wellbeing and finds that young women are almost twice as likely to indicate having a probable mental health problem when compared to the population as a whole,” he says.

“This is likely reflective of the broader pressures on this cohort today, with many leaving education facing into an uncertain economy and with societal problems such as housing unaffordability impacting them more severely than other groups.”

Ipsos polling around the world finds this is an issue far beyond Ireland, with Gen Z women, on average across 31 countries, the most likely demographic to report feeling so stressed that they felt like they couldn’t cope/deal with things.Ipsos | Data dive | Mental health

  1. Taking time off for self-care
    Since Gen Z and Millennial women are the most likely to report struggling with their mental wellbeing it makes sense they’re also the most likely demographics to report having felt stressed to the point that they couldn’t go to work for a period of time.Ipsos | Data dive | Mental health
  2. Feeling bleak
    While there’s been a lot of attention in recent years on Gen Z men having a hard time succeeding at school and work, our polling finds Gen Z women, on average globally, are the most likely demographic to report being depressed to the point they felt sad/hopeless almost every day for a couple of weeks or more.

On the brighter side, while Gen Z and Millennial women are currently finding things difficult, our polling shows the proportion of women dealing with serious depression appears to trend downwards with age.

“Women are more attentive and more concerned about health issues in general than the male population,” says Gastaldi. But, even given the caveat that women may feel more comfortable talking about and admitting they’re having a tough time, young women are the most likely demographic in Brazil to report struggling, with almost three in five (58%) Brazilian Gen Z women and close to half (48%) of Brazilian Gen Z men reporting being severely depressed to the point they felt sad/hopeless almost every day for a couple of weeks or more.

Ipsos | Data dive | Mental health

  1. Dark thoughts
    Given that Gen Z women say they’re dealing with mental health issues the most, it’s unfortunately unsurprising they’re the most likely demographic to report having seriously considered self-hurt or suicide several times.

While it can be difficult for someone in the depths of darkness to believe things will eventually get better our polling finds the proportion of women reporting thoughts of self-hurt/suicide is much lower among Generation Xers and Boomers.Ipsos | Data dive | Mental health

  1. Mental health is health
    It’s clear from our polling that lots of us are capital “S” stressed.

And that’s reflected in our polling this year, with Ipsos’ 2023 Global Health Monitor finding mental health is now considered the top health concern, on average across 31 countries, followed by cancer then stress.

People around the world now seem to consider both physical and emotional wellbeing to be key to overall health. That’s a shift Gastaldi’s seen happen in Brazil, where 52% of people think mental health is a top health concern for their country (eight percentage points higher than the global average of 44%).

The onset of the global pandemic in early 2020 led to a “growing interest in Brazilian society in discussing mental health more openly, with the support of experts and personalities in general. This has greatly contributed to a process of demystification of the topic, which historically was treated in a very discreet, and even prejudiced, manner.

“Although there is still a stigma attached to this topic in society, we can now see fewer delays in diagnoses and more appropriate application of treatments.”

While there’s consensus across the generations in Brazil and beyond that being of sound mind and body is equally important, many say healthcare providers don’t seem to also hold that view.

Just over two in three (68% on average globally) Gen Zers say mental health and physical health are equally important, followed by 73% of Millennials, 82% of Gen Xers and 87% of Boomers. Yet, only 35% think healthcare providers are placing equal emphasis on mental and physical health – with Gen Z women the least likely to think both are being treated equally.

While there’s been strides in more openly talking about mental health, even in 2023 young women may still be facing old-fashioned prejudices.

Neiland points out women from all generations have long faced significant barriers, stigma and discrimination when seeking care for both physical and mental health concerns. 

“In the hysterical health work we did one can see this long legacy of dismissing women is still there.

Ipsos | Data dive | Mental health

*Generation Z (born between 1996-2012), Millennials (born between 1980-1995), Generation X (born between 1966-1979) and Baby Boomers (born between 1945-1965.

(Ipsos Global)

05 December 2023

Source: https://www.ipsos.com/en/data-dive-gen-z-women-are-struggling-most-stress-mental-health-issues

 

822-825-43-27/Polls

In East Asia, Many People See China’s Power And Influence As A Major Threat, A Survey In Five Asian Nations

In parts of East Asia, roughly half of adults or more view China’s power and influence as a major threat, according to a Pew Research Center survey conducted between June and September 2023.

In Japan, Taiwan, South Korea and Hong Kong, more tend to say China’s power and influence is a major threat than the other issues asked about, which include Russia’s power and influence, the United States’ power and influence, and North Korea’s nuclear weapons program

In most places surveyed, more people name China’s influence as a major threat than any of the other geopolitical issues asked about. Those issues include North Korea’s nuclear weapons program and the power and influence of the United States and Russia.

In South Korea and Japan, though, North Korea’s nuclear weapons program is also a top concern. Most Japanese adults also see Russia’s power and influence as a major threat – though fewer than half of adults in the other places surveyed agree.

China’s power and influence

Majorities in Japan, Taiwan and South Korea say China’s power and influence is a major threat to them; about half in Hong Kong say the same.

Majorities of adults in Japan, Taiwan and South Korea see China’s power and influence as a major threat to them. Roughly half of adults in Hong Kong (48%) agree. And large majorities in all places surveyed call China at least a minor threat.

In Japan, 76% of adults consider China a major threat. This is comparable to the share (74%) who said the same in 2013, amid flare-ups in the East China Sea, and higher than the share (69%) who said this toward the end of the last decade.

In comparison, 64% of South Koreans consider China a major threat, but they are less likely now than they were in 2013 (76%) to say this. (Comparable trend data is not available in Hong Kong or Taiwan.)

Related: China’s Approach to Foreign Policy Gets Largely Negative Reviews in 24-Country Survey

Views of China as a threat differ by educational attainment, age and party affiliation:

  • Those with more education are consistently more likely than those with less education to view China’s power and influence as a major threat. In Japan, for example, 81% of those with more education say China is a major threat, compared with 72% of those with less education.
  • In Hong Kong and Taiwan, adults under age 35 are more likely than older adults to consider China’s power and influence a major threat.
  • In Taiwan, supporters of the governing Democratic People’s Party (DPP) are more likely than supporters of the oppositional Kuomintang (KMT) to view China’s power and influence as a major threat to Taiwan (78% vs. 59%). Supporters of other parties and those who are unaffiliated with any party (65%) are also less likely than DPP supporters to label China as a major threat.

North Korea’s nuclear weapons program

Majorities in Japan and South Korea say North Korea’s nuclear weapons program is a major threat to them; about 3 in 10 in Taiwan and Hong Kong agree.

Majorities in Japan and South Korea say North Korea’s nuclear weapons program is a major threat to their country. Significantly smaller shares in Taiwan and Hong Kong say the same. Still, most people in all four places call North Korea’s nuclear capabilities at least a minor threat.

For Japan and South Korea, these shares are largely unchanged since 2018, when the question was last asked amid then-President Donald Trump’s summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. But the shares are slightly lower than they were in 2013, when the question was first asked.

In some places surveyed, opinions vary across some demographic groups:

  • In South Korea, three-quarters of those who support the People Power Party (PPP) say North Korea’s weapons capabilities are a major threat to their country. That compares with 60% who say the same among those who support the governing party (DPK).
  • In Taiwan and Japan, women are more likely than men to call North Korea’s nuclear weapons program a major threat.

U.S. power and influence

Most in Japan, Taiwan, South Korea and Hong Kong see the United States’ power and influence as a minor or major threat.

Most East Asian adults surveyed see the United States’ power and influence as a threat to them. That includes 53% of Japanese adults who say the U.S. poses a major threat to their country.

In both Taiwan and South Korea, 45% say the U.S. poses a major threat and roughly a quarter call it a minor threat.

Adults in Hong Kong are the least likely to call the U.S. a major threat (37%) but the most likely to call it a minor threat.

In South Korea and Japan, the shares calling the United States’ power and influence a major threat have fallen by 22 and 13 percentage points, respectively, since 2018. This aligns with a significant jump in confidence that the U.S. president will do the right thing regarding world affairs between Trump’s time in office and Joe Biden’s presidency.

Related: International Views of Biden and U.S. Largely Positive

In certain places, gender, education and party are all related to these opinions:

  • Japanese, South Korean and Taiwanese women are more likely than men to see U.S. power and influence as a major threat. In South Korea, for example, 52% of women hold this view compared with 39% of men.
  • In those three places, adults with more education are more likely than those with less education to call U.S. influence a major threat. For example, 51% of Taiwanese adults with more education say this, compared with 40% of those with less education.
  • In South Korea, supporters of the governing DPK are more likely than supporters of PPP to call U.S. power and influence a major threat (54% vs. 32%).
  • In Taiwan, KMT supporters are far more likely than DPP supporters to say the U.S. poses a major threat (63% vs. 34%).

Russia’s power and influence

A horizontal stacked bar chart showing that many adults, especially in Japan, see Russia as a threat.

Many adults view Russia’s power and influence as a threat, but to a lesser degree than the power and influence of China or the U.S. Japanese adults are the most concerned by Russia’s influence, with about seven-in-ten (71%) labeling it as a major threat.

In comparison, no more than four-in-ten in South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong view Russia as a major threat. People in those three places are much more likely than Japanese to label Russia a minor threat instead. At least a quarter of adults in Taiwan and Hong Kong dismiss Russia’s power and influence as a threat entirely.

In Japan, the share labeling Russia’s power and influence as a major threat has grown substantially since 2017, rising 28 percentage points.

Related: Large Shares See Russia and Putin in Negative Light, While Views of Zelenskyy More Mixed

Across the four places, views of Russia’s power and influence do not differ greatly by political affiliation, but they do vary somewhat by educational attainment and gender:

  • In Hong Kong, those with more education are more likely than those with less education to see Russia’s power as a minor threat (55% vs. 45%). The same is true in Taiwan (51% vs. 38%).
  • In Hong Kong and Japan, men are 7 points more likely than women to consider Russia’s power and influence a minor threat.

(PEW)

05 December 2023

Source: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/12/05/in-east-asia-many-people-see-chinas-power-and-influence-as-a-major-threat/

 

822-825-43-28/Polls

Global Attitudes On An Interconnected World, A Survey Across 24 Nations

How close do people feel to others around the world? How much do they want their countries involved in international affairs? How do people’s experiences with travel and feelings of international connectedness relate to their views about the world?

These are among the questions we explored in a recent 24-nation survey. We found that while most respondents feel close to people in their countries and their local communities, they are more divided over how close they feel to others across the globe.

Map of 24 countries showing % of adults in each who say they feel close to people all over the world. This view is more common in Europe than in other regions

A median of 50% say they feel very or somewhat close to people all over the world, while 46% feel not too or not at all close. Feeling close to others around the world is more common in Europe than in other regions. Only 35% express this view in the United States, and it is even less common in Argentina, Indonesia and Israel.

Map of 24 countries showing % of adults in each who say we should pay less attention to problems in other countries and concentrate on problems here at home. At least 7 in 10 say this in Argentina and Mexico.

When it comes to engagement and cooperation with other nations, views differ significantly among the nations we polled, but a median of 55% want to pay less attention to problems in other countries and concentrate on problems at home; 43% think it’s best for the future of their country to be active in world affairs.

Bar chart showing % in each of 24 countries who have traveled internationally. In Sweden, 57% have been to at least 10 other countries, while in India, 95% have never left the country.

International travel experience also varies greatly across the nations in the study, and it is strongly correlated with per-capita gross domestic product. In the Netherlands, Sweden and the United Kingdom, more than four-in-ten have traveled to 10 or more countries. While about three-in-four Americans have traveled abroad, only 11% have been to 10 or more nations.

In middle-income nations in Africa, Latin America and Asia, majorities have never left their country. However, most of those who have not traveled internationally say they would if they had the opportunity.

Travel experience, feelings of connectedness to others around the world, and views about your country’s role in world affairs are often related to one another, our survey found. International travelers are more likely to report feeling close to people in other countries. And those who travel and feel close to others around the world tend to believe their countries should be involved in global politics. 

For this report, we surveyed people in 24 countries on:

The survey was conducted from Feb. 20 to May 22, 2023, among 30,861 people in 24 countries.

Feeling connected to others

Bar chart showing 24-country median percentages who say they feel close to people in their country, their local community, and all over the world. More say this about country and community than about the world.

A median of 83% across 24 countries say they feel close to people in their country. Majorities in every nation surveyed expressed this view, although the U.S. has one of the smallest shares who feel close to others in their country – 66% say this, and only 15% say they feel very close to other Americans (also the lowest share of any nation in the study).

A median of 78% feel close to people in their local community, while 21% do not. At least half in every country feel close to those in their local community. South Koreans (50%), Americans (54%), Argentines (57%) and Germans (57%) are the least likely to hold this view.

Views of global interconnectedness are mixed: A median of 50% say they feel close to people all over the world, while 46% do not feel close to the global community. While most in Europe feel close to people all over the world, this view is less common in other regions surveyed. Roughly half or more feel this way in each of the 10 European nations polled, but Canada, India, Japan and Kenya are the only other countries where at least half share this view. About a third or fewer in Argentina, Indonesia, Israel and the U.S. feel close to others around the world.

For more on how close people feel to others around the world, in their country and in their community, read Chapter 1 of this report.

International engagement

Bar chart showing 24-country median percentages on views of international engagement. Publics in most nations surveyed say their country needs to concentrate on problems at home more than world affairs. People are divided on whether a country should follow its own interests or take into account interests of other countries.

Respondents were asked to choose between the following two viewpoints: “Our country should pay less attention to problems in other countries and concentrate on problems here at home” or “It’s best for the future of our country to be active in world affairs.” The prevailing view in most nations surveyed is that their country needs to concentrate on problems at home: A median of 55% across 24 countries express this view. Publics in Africa and Latin America are especially likely to express this opinion. But in six nations, at least half say it’s best to be active in world affairs: Australia, Germany, Japan, South Korea, Sweden and the UK.

The share of Americans who believe the U.S. should be active in world affairs has declined in recent years. Just 43% hold this view today, compared with 53% in September 2019.

Respondents were also asked whether their country should follow its own interests even when other countries strongly disagree, or take into account other countries’ interests even if that means making compromises. Overall, publics are roughly divided: A median of 49% say their country should follow its own interests, while 47% say they should consider the interests of others. The African and Latin American nations in the study are particularly likely to favor pursuing their own interests compared with other regions.

For more detail on views about international engagement, see Chapter 2 of this report.

International travel

European nations report especially high levels of international travel. (These nations have relatively high incomes, a relatively large number of neighboring countries and a right to free movement within the European Union.) Australians and Canadians are also more likely than others to have traveled to at least one country outside their own.

Correlation chart comparing 24 countries, showing that more people from higher-income countries have traveled internationally

A country’s gross domestic product per capita is strongly linked to the share of the public who have traveled abroad. But while the U.S. has the highest GDP per capita of any country surveyed, several other nations have higher levels of international travel.

International travel is also linked to attitudes about international connectedness. Those who have traveled abroad are more likely to feel connected to others around the world, believe their country should be active in global affairs, and think their country should consider the interests of other nations even if it means making compromises.

For more on views about international engagement, see Chapter 3 of this report.

Ideology and interconnectedness

In many nations, people on the ideological left are particularly inclined to say their country should be active in world affairs. Those on the left also tend to believe their country should consider the interests of other nations even if it means making compromises.

A line chart showing that U.S. views of being active in world affairs are ideologically divided

This ideological gap is largest in the United States, where it has increased substantially over the past few years. Since 2019, about two-thirds of American liberals have consistently said they favor taking an active role in world affairs. But the share of conservatives who hold this view has declined significantly, and it has also declined among those who describe themselves as moderates.

Ideology is also linked to how close people feel to others across the globe and in their countries. In several nations, respondents on the left are especially likely to feel close to others around the world. The opposite is true for closeness to people in your own country – in several countries, this view is more common on the ideological right.

(PEW)

06 December 2023

Source: https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2023/12/06/attitudes-on-an-interconnected-world/

 

822-825-43-29/Polls

How The Israel-Hamas War In Gaza Is Changing Arab Views

Since October 7, the latest war between Hamas and Israel has claimed the lives of more than 15,000 Palestinians and over 1,200 Israelis. Scores more have been injured. The war has displaced more than 1.8 million Palestinians and left the fates of many of Israel’s people unknown; over 100 of those abducted in Israel remain hostages. Fighting has resulted in damage to 15 percent of the buildings in Gaza, including over 100 cultural landmarks and more than 45 percent of all housing units.

As many analysts have already declared, the high costs in Gaza have reverberated around the Arab world, reaffirming the salience and power of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in shaping regional politics. Yet it has been difficult to say exactly how much the attack has affected Arab attitudes—and in what particular ways.

Now, that is changing. In the weeks leading up to the attack and the three weeks that followed, our nonpartisan research firm, Arab Barometer, conducted a nationally representative survey in Tunisia in conjunction with our local partner, One to One for Research and Polling. By chance, about half the 2,406 interviews were completed in the three weeks before October 7, and the remaining half occurred in the three weeks after. As a result, a comparison of the results can show—with unusual precision—how the attack and subsequent Israeli military campaign have changed views among Arabs.

Stay informed.

The findings are striking. U.S. President Joe Biden recently warned that Israel was losing global support over Gaza, but that is only the tip of the iceberg. Since October 7, every country in the survey with positive or warming relations with Israel saw its favorability ratings decline among Tunisians. The United States saw the steepest drop, but Washington’s Middle East allies that have forged ties to Israel over the last few years also saw their approval numbers go down. States that have stayed neutral, meanwhile, experienced little shift. And the leadership of Iran, which is ardently opposed to Israel, saw its favorability figures rise. Three weeks after the attacks, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has approval ratings that matched or even exceeded those of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, known as MBS, and Emirati President Mohammed bin Zayed, known as MBZ.

Tunisia is but one country in the Middle East and North Africa, a region of vast differences, and this survey cannot tell experts everything about how people throughout the region think and feel. But Tunisia is about as close to a bellwether as one could imagine. In previous Arab Barometer surveys, Tunisians have had views similar to those found in most other Arab countries. The population is open to the West but is also open to other global powers, such as China and Russia. It is geographically removed from the immediate effects of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but it has a history of direct involvement, including once housing the Palestine Liberation Organization. Analysts and officials can safely assume that people’s views elsewhere in the region have shifted in ways similar to the recent changes that have taken place in Tunisia.

Those shifts have been dramatic: rarely are changes of this magnitude seen in the course of a few weeks. But that does not indicate knee-jerk reactions on the part of Tunisians. If Tunisia’s people were changing their views simply because they supported Hamas’s actions, a major shift would have occurred within a day of the attack and then Tunisians’ opinions would have quickly stabilized. Instead, their opinions moved little by little on a daily basis over a three-week period, but significantly over the whole period. As a result, it is most likely that Tunisians’ views shifted not in response to Hamas’s attack but to the subsequent events, namely, the increasing cost to civilians of Israel’s military operation in Gaza. Still, the war has certainly increased Tunisians’ support for Palestinian fighting. Compared with surveys taken before the October 7 attack, far more Tunisians today want the Palestinians to resolve their conflict with Israel via force rather than with a peaceful settlement.

Public opinion matters even in nondemocracies, where leaders must worry about protests, and these shifting views will reshape politics in the Arab world—as well as around the globe. The United States and its regional allies will have great difficulty expanding the Abraham Accords, which normalized ties between several Arab states and Israel. Washington may also lose the advantage in its contest with a rising China and a resurgent Russia. The United States could even find that many long-standing allies such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates become less friendly toward the United States and more receptive toward its rivals as they seek to stave off their own regional declines. Since the attack, for example, both countries have welcomed Russian President Vladimir Putin for his first visit to the region since the invasion of Ukraine.

The growing support for armed resistance could also have dangerous consequences. The war against Hamas has not yet led to a wider conflict, but Israel has had to fend off strikes from Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Middle East and North Africa overall are prone to instability. It is not hard to imagine how the current invasion could spiral or open the door to a future conflict. To stabilize the region, Israel and its allies must, therefore, find a way to end this war and then pivot, quickly, to peacefully resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

ROCK BOTTOM

Arab Barometer, our academic research project, was in the process of conducting a wide-ranging issues survey with a random sample of Tunisia’s residents when Hamas attacked Israel on October 7. We decided to use this timing to investigate how this event and the war that followed affected public opinion. Since we did not expect significant changes in the views of Tunisians before October 7, we first took the average opinion for the initial three weeks of fieldwork. We then looked at how public opinion changed in the weeks that followed. Since the sample size is relatively small on each given day of our post–October 7 analysis, we made our estimates of how people felt at any given time using three-day moving averages of public opinion. This means that each data point represents an estimate on the day of the survey and the two days prior. (Although the last day of fielding was November 4, October 27 was the last day enough daily interviews were collected to provide sufficient data for meaningful analysis.)

After plotting this moving average, we calculated a best-fit line for interviews conducted before and after October 7 to understand what changes, if any, resulted for each question. This line helped show how Tunisians’ views shifted in real time. Our ultimate estimates for the change in public opinion, however, focused on two numbers. The first is the average view of Tunisians before October 7. The second is the level of support based on the average from the best-fit line for October 27.  

There were many shifts. Yet the largest had to do with perceptions of the United States. In the 1,146 interviews carried out before the October 7 attack, 40 percent of Tunisians had a positive or somewhat positive view of the United States, compared with 56 percent who had an unfavorable opinion. But after the war in Gaza began, that quickly changed. By the end of our fieldwork, only ten percent of Tunisians had a positive view of the United States. Eighty-seven percent, by contrast, had an unfavorable impression. Before October 7, 56 percent of Tunisians wanted closer economic relations with the United States. Three weeks later, that number had fallen to 34 percent. Biden was never particularly popular in Tunisia, with an approval rating of 29 percent before October 7. But after Israel began its campaign—and Biden declared there were “no conditions” on U.S. support—his favorability rating fell to just six points.

Correlation, of course, does not mean causation. But in this case, it is hard to see an alternative explanation, particularly given the steady, daily shift in Tunisian opinion. The war was by far the biggest news event that took place during the survey, and other responses made it clear that Tunisians were thinking about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as they evaluated the United States. When Tunisians were asked which U.S. policies are most important to them in the Middle East and North Africa, resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict rose dramatically after October 7—from 24 percent to 59 percent. By comparison, the number of Tunisians who answered “economic development” fell from 20 percent to four percent.

So far, worsening opinions about the United States have not directly translated into gains for China and Russia, both of which have stayed neutral in the war. Before the Hamas attack, 70 percent of Tunisians had a positive view of China; by October 27, that figure had increased by a modest five points. The number of people who wanted warmer economic relations with China dipped from 80 percent to 78 percent, within the margin of error. Before the attack, 56 percent of Tunisians held a favorable view of Russia compared with 53 percent at the end of our research. The share of people who wanted closer economic ties to Moscow went from 72 percent to 75 percent.

But there are signs that China, at least, could win greater support at the expense of the United States. When asked before October 7 whether Beijing or Washington had better policies toward the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, a third of Tunisians preferred China’s policies to the United States’. By the end of our polling, this figure had risen to 50 percent. (The share of Tunisians preferring U.S. policy went from 13 percent to 14 percent.) When asked whether China or the United States had better policies for maintaining regional security, the results were similar. Before October 7, the number of people who preferred Chinese policy rose from 31 percent to 50 percent. The percentage of Tunisians who preferred U.S. policy fell from 19 percent to 12 percent. 

GUILT BY ASSOCIATION

Great powers are not the only states that Tunisians now view differently. The population’s attitude toward a number of regional powers also shifted after October 7. Much like shifts in opinion toward Washington, the changes largely track with how these states treat Israel.

Consider, for example, Saudi Arabia. In the period leading up to the attack, there was widespread speculation that Riyadh would normalize relations with Israel. As anger at Israel built among Tunisians in the weeks following October 7, their views of Saudi Arabia also darkened—with the country’s approval rating dropping from 73 percent to 59 percent. Similarly, the percentage of Tunisians who wanted closer economic relations with Saudi Arabia fell from an average of 71 percent to 61 percent. MBS’s approval rating declined from 55 percent before the attack to 40 percent by October 27. These changes are especially notable given that Tunisian President Kais Saied, who enjoys high approval ratings at home, has very close links with MBS. 

The questionnaire did not include direct queries about the United Arab Emirates, which normalized ties with Israel in August 2020. But it did ask about MBZ’s foreign policies, and the results proved very similar to those for MBS. Before the October 7 attack, MBZ’s policies were seen favorably by 49 percent of Tunisians. By the end of the fieldwork, that figure had dropped to a third.

Views of Turkey, by contrast, were largely unchanged. Ankara has long sought to highlight and empathize with the plight of the Palestinians, albeit from the sidelines, and 68 percent of Tunisians had a positive view of Turkey both before and after the attack. Views of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s foreign policy declined from 54 percent to 47 percent, but the number of people who wanted a closer economic relationship with the country increased, going from 57 percent to 64 percent.

Still, the war in Gaza did not seem to improve the views of Turkey among Tunisians, perhaps because its condemnation of Israel was relatively constrained. But one country’s leadership did seem to benefit: that of Iran. The Islamic Republic is ardently opposed to Israel’s existence, and it cheered on Hamas’s attack. In an appeal that surely resonated with Arab public opinion, on October 17, Khamenei called for an end to the bombing of Gaza and labeled Israel’s actions a “genocide.” Although the survey did not include views toward Iran itself, it did ask about the foreign policies of Khamenei, and approval clearly went up. Before the attack, just 29 percent of Tunisians held a favorable view of his foreign policies. At the end of our fieldwork, this figure had risen to 41 percent. The jump in support was most notable in the days following Khamenei’s October 17 statement.

And then there is Israel itself. Even before the attack, Tunisians had an extremely unfavorable view of Israel—just five percent of people rated the country positively. As a result, the country’s decline to effectively zero percent was not much of a fall at all. But opinions about normalization did shift. Normalizing ties with Israel was never popular, yet after the attack, what little support there was had completely dissipated. On October 7, 12 percent of people supported normalization. By October 27, that figure hit just one percent.

Views of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict also changed in important ways. Before October 7, when asked about their preferred means of solving the conflict, 66 percent of Tunisians favored a two-state solution based on the 1967 borders, whereas 18 percent favored an alternative diplomatic path, such as a single state with equal rights for all or a confederation. Just six percent of Tunisians chose “other,” the vast majority of whom proposed armed resistance to Israel’s occupation, possibly entailing the elimination of the state of Israel. But by the end of our fieldwork, only 50 percent of Tunisians supported the two-state solution. Those in favor of a one-state solution or a confederation fell by seven points combined. The biggest gain was the “other” category, which increased by 30 points to 36 percent. Once again, the vast majority of these Tunisians wanted continued, armed resistance.

BREAK THE CYCLE

Tunisia is geographically remote from Israel, and its population’s growing appetite for an armed resistance is unlikely to directly affect the war. But if other Arab states have had similar shifts in opinion, fighting on Israel’s borders could flare further. And in all likelihood, anger at Israel has grown even more in countries closer to the conflict or in those housing more Palestinian refugees, such as Jordan and Lebanon. The potential for greater violence is, therefore, serious. The Middle East and North Africa, after all, are plagued by more ongoing conflicts than any other part of the world.

As the bombardment of Gaza continues, this risk will only grow. In fact, even after the fighting ends, the region may remain more precarious. A new generation has now seen the horrors of the occupation on television and on social media, including tragic images of dead bodies and anguished families that they are unlikely to forget. Some percentage of them may choose to fund, join, or otherwise help armed groups fighting against Israel’s existence. The country’s politicians may think this war will make them safer, but Israel’s security will not increase because of the conflict. 

The simple fact is that the Palestinian cause remains vitally important to the Arab world, and Israel cannot hope to simply defeat it with bombs. This issue has not lost its salience to a new generation. Despite what many Western (and some Arab) capitals may have assumed, Israel will not be able to make peace with its neighbors as long as the Palestinians do not have a state. In just 20 days, Tunisians’ views on the world shifted in ways that rarely happen even over the course of a few years. There is no other issue across the Arab world to which people feel so individually and emotionally connected. 

This intensity is particularly striking given Tunisia’s domestic challenges. The state now has a GDP per capita that is lower than it was before the country’s 2010 revolution. And yet Tunisians still wanted less economic engagement with the United States. According to our data, by October 27, Tunisians preferred international engagement on the Palestinian cause over economic development by an enormous margin—59 percent to four percent.

If Israel and the United States seek genuine peace with the Arab world—rather than a cold peace with the repressive regimes that rule most of it—they must change their policies. They need to find a way to end the ongoing struggle between the Israelis and the Palestinians. And that means all these groups must diligently work toward a fair and dignified future for the Palestinian people: specifically, a two-state solution. It is the only way to change the hearts and minds of neighboring populations and bring an end to the cycle of violence that has plagued the Middle East for the last century.

(Foreign Affairs)

14 December 2023

Source: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/how-israel-hamas-war-gaza-changing-arab-views?utm_medium=newsletters&utm_source=fatoday&utm_campaign=There%20Is%20a%20Path%20to%20Victory%20in%20Ukraine&utm_content=20231214&utm_term=FA%20Today%20-%20112017