BUSINESS
& POLITICS IN THE WORLD GLOBAL
OPINION REPORT NO. 822-825 Week: November 20 – December
17, 2023 Presentation: December 22,
2023 16%
Prefer Koizumi As Prime Minister; 36% Choose ‘No One’ Overall,
8 In 10 People In Pakistan Are Concerned About Impacts Of Climate Change South
Africans Want To See Greater Government Initiative To Promote Gender Equality Young
Ethiopians Prioritise Management Of The Economy For Government Action As
Climate Change Worsens Life In Gambia, Citizens Want Collective Action To
Fight It Why
Do Britons Think Inheritance Tax Is Unfair Britons
Support Rejoining The Single Market, Even If It Means Free Movement Just
11% Of Britons Think COP28 Will Result In Significant Action On Climate
Change More
Than Two In Five Britons Worry About How Much Christmas Is Going To Cost Do
The Public Praise Or Blame Rishi Sunak And Jeremy Hunt When It Comes To
Inflation 58%
Of French People Admit That They Could Make More Effort To Reduce Their
Energy Consumption First
Anniversary Of Chat GPT, 77% Of French People See This Tool As A Revolution Americans
More Upbeat About Future Social Security Benefits Americans’
Views Of The Israel-Hamas War About
Half Of Republicans Now Say The U.S. Is Providing Too Much Aid To Ukraine Older
Workers Are Growing In Number And Earning Higher Wages Falling
Inflation Provides Scant Relief As Canadians Cool Holiday Spending For A
Second Year There
Were Nearly Two Million Extra Vehicle Insurance Policies In 2023 Global
Attitudes On An Interconnected World, A Survey Across 24 Nations How
The Israel-Hamas War In Gaza Is Changing Arab Views INTRODUCTORY
NOTE 822-825-43-30/Commentary: More Than Two In
Five Britons Worry About How Much Christmas Is Going To Cost
The latest Ipsos Political Monitor, taken 1st – 8th
November 2023, explores public attitudes towards the cost of Christmas and
whether the economy (and other facets of life in Britain) will improve or get
worse in the next 12 months. The cost of Christmas Whilst most Britons are looking forward to Christmas
(70%), many are concerned by how much it will cost. This year 44% say they
are concerned, compared to around three in ten in December 2020 and
2014. Concern about the cost of Christmas
rises to 58% amongst 18-34s and renters, 57% for ethnic minorities and 50%
amongst the C2DE social grade. Women are more worried than men by a margin of
49% to 38%. Meanwhile, 28% overall feel stressed about preparing for
Christmas, up from 21% three years ago. Women are more stressed about
Christmas than men (33% to 23%) but overall 72% of Britons are not stressed –
including 52% that are ‘not stressed at all’. The economy and cost of
living 55% of Britons expect the economy to worsen over the
next 12 months, 19% think it will improve. This gives a net score of -36
which is very similar to last month (-34) and the start of the year (-33 in
January). When asked about difference facets of life in
Britain there is a lot of pessimism around – especially on the NHS and cost
of living. 66% expect the cost of living in Britain to get worse in the next
few years and 64% say the same about the NHS. Gideon Skinner, Head of
Political Research at Ipsos, said: The rate of inflation may
be falling, but Britons are still feeling its impact. Most people are
still pessimistic about the cost of living over the next few years, and even
Christmas does not escape. Even though most people are still looking forward
to the festivities, over 4 in 10 are worried about its cost – with young
people, renters and women in particular feeling the pressure. Ahead of the
Autumn Statement the Prime Minister and Chancellor have hit their pledge to
halve inflation, but will know they will also need to deliver on their other
targets to grow the economy and reduce people’s financial insecurities over
the cost of living to change the public mood. (Ipsos MORI) 21 November 2023 Source: https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/more-two-in-five-britons-worry-about-how-much-christmas-is-going-to-cost SUMMARY OF POLLS ASIA (Japan) 16% Prefer Koizumi As
Prime Minister; 36% Choose ‘No One’ Former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi is
considered the “most suitable” for prime minister by voters from among seven
ruling party lawmakers, including incumbent Fumio Kishida, according to an
Asahi Shimbun survey. Koizumi was picked by 16 percent of survey respondents
in the “suitability” question, followed closely by Shigeru Ishiba, former
Liberal Democratic Party secretary-general, at 15 percent, and Taro Kono,
minister for digital transformation, at 13 percent. (Ashi Shimbun) 20 November 2023
Nearly Three
Quarters (74%) Of Pakistanis Think That The Environment For Working Women Is
Less Supportive As Compared To Working Men According to a survey conducted by Gallup &
Gilani Pakistan, a significant majority (81%) of women in Pakistan think that
the environment for working women is less supportive as compared to working
men, while 29% of men in Pakistan think that it is not less supportive. A
nationally representative sample of adult men and women from across the
country was asked the question, “Do you think the environment for working
women, compared to working men, is less supportive?” In response, 74% said
‘yes’, 23% said ‘no’, and 3% said that they did not know or gave no response. (Gallup Pakistan) 13 December 2023 Overall, 8 In 10
People In Pakistan Are Concerned About Impacts Of Climate Change According to a recent report published by the World
Bank Group (for the full report click here) using data collected by Gallup
Pakistan it was found that 8 in 10 people in Pakistan are concerned about
impacts of climate change, with females and educated people being more
concerned. People are more likely to take energy-saving actions like turning
off lights (83.4%) that lead to financial savings, instead of other
actions such as reduction beef or paper, consumption etc. (Gallup Pakistan) 14 December 2023 AFRICA (South Africa) South Africans Want
To See Greater Government Initiative To Promote Gender Equality In South Africa, the gender gap is steadily
narrowing, especially in education, where female students outperform their
male counterparts (Ramaphosa, 2023). But despite marked improvement, women’s
labour force participation rates lag behind men’s. The Quarterly Labour Force
Survey shows that in the second quarter of 2023, women’s participation rate
stood at 54.3% compared to 64.9% for men, representing a
10.6-percentage-point gap (Statistics South Africa, 2023). (Afrobarometer) 29 November 2023
Young Ethiopians
Prioritise Management Of The Economy For Government Action More than two-thirds of Ethiopians are under age 30
(Ethiopian Statistical Service, 2013), a powerful asset and resource for
growth that has gone largely untapped. Historically, the relationship between
successive Ethiopian governments and the youth has been “a combination of
repression and co-optation” linking state resources and employment
opportunities to youth associations affiliated with the ruling party (Kefale,
Dejen, & Aalen, 2021). (Afrobarometer) 30 November 2023 As Climate Change
Worsens Life In Gambia, Citizens Want Collective Action To Fight It More than six in 10 Gambians (62%) say floods have
become more severe in their region over the past decade. Half as many (31%)
say the same about droughts. o Rural residents and poor citizens are
significantly more likely to report worsening floods and droughts than their
urban and better-off counterparts. A slim majority (56%) of Gambians say they
have heard of climate change, a 12- percentage-point decrease compared to
2021. (Afrobarometer) 01 December 2023 WEST EUROPE (UK) Why Do Britons Think
Inheritance Tax Is Unfair There has been speculation at
various points this year that the government would make cuts to inheritance
tax. YouGov tracker polling has
consistently shown that Britons consider inheritance tax
to be unfair, and a July survey found that a majority (56%) would support
scrapping it. Few estates actually pay inheritance tax (less
than 4% in 2020-21), although YouGov
research for The Times in July found that
approximately 15% of Britons expect to receive an inheritance in future that
they will have to pay the tax on, and 31% expect that the tax will be levied
on assets they themselves leave behind when they die. (YouGov UK) 23 November 2023 Britons Support
Rejoining The Single Market, Even If It Means Free Movement New YouGov data indicates that more Britons are in
fact supportive of joining the single market, even under this condition, than
in opposition. Just short of six in ten Britons (57%) would support the UK
joining the single market, even if this meant a return to free movement, with
only around one in five (22%) opposed. More than eight in ten Remain voters
(83%) would support doing so, compared to around a third (35%) of Leave
voters, who tend to be opposed (45%). (YouGov UK) 29 November 2023 Just 11% Of Britons
Think COP28 Will Result In Significant Action On Climate Change (YouGov UK) 30 November 2023 Despite Pressures
Facing Young Families Today, Most Parents Take Precious Moments To Play With
Their Babies Four in five primary caregivers of nine-month-old
babies reported cuddling, talking and playing with their little one several
times a day, in the first national long-term study of babies in over two
decades, led by UCL in partnership with Ipsos. More than half engaged in
physical or turn-taking play, singing, pretend games and noisy play with
their babies several times a day – activities which were linked to improved
early language development. Around three quarters showed their babies picture
books or took them outside at least once a day. (Ipsos MORI) 20 November 2023 More Than Two In
Five Britons Worry About How Much Christmas Is Going To Cost The latest Ipsos Political Monitor, taken 1st – 8th
November 2023, explores public attitudes towards the cost of Christmas and
whether the economy (and other facets of life in Britain) will improve or get
worse in the next 12 months. Whilst most Britons are looking forward to
Christmas (70%), many are concerned by how much it will cost. This year 44%
say they are concerned, compared to around three in ten in December 2020 and
2014. (Ipsos MORI) 21 November 2023 Do The Public Praise
Or Blame Rishi Sunak And Jeremy Hunt When It Comes To Inflation New polling from Ipsos in the UK, taken before the
recent Autumn Statement (Friday 17th to Monday 20th November), explored
public attitudes to the economy, inflation and Rishi Sunak’s performance in
delivering against his 5 key policy pledges announced earlier this year. When
asked how far various factors have contributed to falling inflation, we find
the public are split on the role of Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt. 46% think
they have contributed a great deal or fair amount to falling inflation and
43% say they have had not very much impact or have made no contribution at
all. (Ipsos MORI) 24 November 2023 (France) 58% Of French People
Admit That They Could Make More Effort To Reduce Their Energy Consumption Nationwide,
in a context still marked by inflation, against the backdrop of the climate
crisis, the two main concerns of the French are purchasing power (60% rank it among their three main
concerns) and the environment (35%). Located at the
intersection of these two dimensions, the issue of energy sobriety appears more than ever to be a priority issue
for the country. Thus, purchasing power is the most important
factor encouraging the French to reduce their energy consumption (66%),
followed by the environment (21%). (Ipsos France) 28 November 2023 First Anniversary Of
Chat GPT, 77% Of French People See This Tool As A Revolution On November 30, 2022, the French version of Chat GPT
was made available to the general public. One year after this launch, the
awareness of Chat GPT has reached a very high level: more than one in two French people (55%) now say
they know what Chat GPT is and 83% of French people have
heard of it. Chat GPT is best known by younger people (72% of those under 35
have a good idea of what it is), executives (83%) and people with a diploma
above the baccalaureate (67%). (Ipsos France) 01 December 2023 NORTH AMERICA (USA) Americans More
Upbeat About Future Social Security Benefits Americans are more optimistic about the future of
Social Security than they have been in recent years, even though only about
half currently express optimism. Among U.S. nonretirees, 50% expect the
Social Security system to pay them a benefit when they retire, while 47% do
not. In three readings taken between 2005 and 2015, nonretirees were more
inclined to predict they would not receive Social Security retirement
benefits. (Gallup) 08 December 2023 Most Of Biden’s
Appointed Judges To Date Are Women, Racial Or Ethnic Minorities – A First For
Any President Nearly two-thirds of the federal judges President
Joe Biden has appointed so far are women, and the same share are members of
racial or ethnic minority groups, according to a Pew Research Center analysis
of statistics
from the Federal Judicial Center. Biden still has more
than a year left in his term, so these patterns could change. But no
president has ever appointed a slate of judges consisting mostly of women or
racial and ethnic minorities. (PEW) 4 December 2023 Americans’ Views Of
The Israel-Hamas War As the war between Hamas and Israel continues with
no end in sight, far more Americans (65%) say Hamas bears a lot of
responsibility for the current conflict than say that about the Israeli
government (35%). Much smaller shares of Americans say the Palestinian people
(20%) and the Israeli people (13%) have a lot of responsibility for the war. Nearly
half of Americans (48%) say that when thinking about the war, they are
extremely or very concerned about the possibility of increasing violence
against Jewish people in the United States. (PEW) 8 December 2023 About Half Of Republicans
Now Say The U.S. Is Providing Too Much Aid To Ukraine As the war in Ukraine nears the two-year mark, about
three-in-ten Americans (31%) say the United States is providing too much
assistance to Ukraine in its fight against Russia, while about half say that
the U.S. is providing the right amount of support (29%) or not providing
enough (18%). The share of Americans who say the U.S. is giving too much support to Ukraine has
grown steadily over the course of the war, especially among Republicans. (PEW) 8 December 2023 Older Workers Are
Growing In Number And Earning Higher Wages Roughly one-in-five Americans ages 65 and older
(19%) were employed in 2023 – nearly double the share of those who were
working 35 years ago. Not only are older workers increasing in number, but
their earning power has grown in recent decades. In 2022, the typical worker
age 65 or older earned $22 per hour, up from $13 in 1987. Earnings for
younger workers haven’t grown as much. As a result, the wage gap between
older workers and those ages 25 to 64 has narrowed significantly. (PEW) 14 December 2023
Falling Inflation
Provides Scant Relief As Canadians Cool Holiday Spending For A Second Year New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute
finds Canadians finding little reprieve from a stabilizing inflation
situation. Underscoring how economic conditions continue to drag, the sting
of a second year of high consumer prices affecting everything from the cost
of vitamins to bread and rent has majorities saying they will spend less on
holiday preparations this year (55%) and have cut back on discretionary
spending overall in recent months (61%). This continues a trend that emerged
last year, when similar numbers said they had cut back. (Angus Reid Institute) 30 November 2023 AUSTRALIA Readership Of Magazines Is Up 3.5% From A Year Ago With
Increases In Readership For All Magazine Categories Now 11.6 million Australians aged 14+ (53.0%) read
print magazines, up 3.5 per cent on a year ago, according to the results
released today from the Roy Morgan Australian Readership report for the 12
months to September 2023. This market broadens to 15.1 million Australians
aged 14+ (69.2%) who read magazines in print or online either via the web or
an app, which is virtually unchanged from a year ago. These are the latest
findings from the Roy Morgan Single Source survey of 65,331 Australians aged
14+ in the 12 months to September 2023. (Roy Morgan) 28 November 2023 There Were Nearly Two Million Extra Vehicle Insurance
Policies In 2023 New data from Roy Morgan shows that there were
nearly two million more vehicle insurance policies in 2023 compared to 2022. The
substantial increase in Australia’s population after the winding down of
COVID restrictions has contributed to an increasing number of registered
motor vehicles on Australian roads. More motor vehicles have boosted the
number of vehicle insurance policies, with the number increasing by 1.6
million between October 2022 (32.1 million) and October 2023 (33.7 million). (Roy Morgan) 04 December 2023 Australian Employment Increased To Over 14 Million For The
First Time In November, But Still Over 3 Million Unemployed Or Under-Employed In November 2023
Australian employment hit a record high of over 14 million for the first time
with over 9 million now employed full-time and over 5 million employed
part-time. However, despite surging employment – up
by 430,000 compared to a year ago – a massive 3.04 million Australians (19.6%
of the workforce) were unemployed or under-employed in November. ‘Real’
unemployment was down 0.2% to 9.7% - an estimated 1,505,000 Australians (down
37,000) in November. (Roy Morgan) 12 December 2023 ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Jumps 4.4pts To 80.8
After The RBA Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged – The Highest For Over Ten
Months Since Early February 2023 ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence jumped 4.4pts to
80.8 this week after the RBA left interest rates unchanged at last week’s
final meeting for the year. However, despite the increase, Consumer
Confidence has now spent a record 45 straight weeks below the mark of 85.
Consumer Confidence is now 2.1pts below the same week a year ago, December
5-11, 2022 (82.9) and nearly 3 points above the 2023 weekly average of 77.8. (Roy Morgan) 12 December 2023 MULTICOUNTRY STUDIES Seven In Ten People Anticipate Climate Change Will Have A
“Severe Effect” In Their Area Within The Next Ten Years, A Survey Across 31
Nations This Ipsos study, released ahead of the COP28 UN
Climate Change Conference, provides a new assessment on how people feel about
climate change right now – focusing on what they see around them and what
they think about actions being taken to address the challenges it brings. A
majority (57%) across 31 countries have already witnessed a severe impact of
climate change where they live. For countries like Mexico, Brazil and
Türkiye, this figure is as high as eight in ten. (Ipsos Global) 27 November 2023 Data Dive: Gen Z Women Are Struggling The Most With Stress,
Mental Health Issues, A Survey Across 31 Countries And our recent global
polling finds Generation Z women* are finding
it quite difficult to cope these days. Just over two in three (68% on average
globally) Gen Zers say mental health and physical health are equally
important, followed by 73% of Millennials, 82% of Gen Xers and 87% of
Boomers. Yet, only 35% think healthcare providers are placing equal emphasis
on mental and physical health – with Gen Z women the least likely to think
both are being treated equally. (Ipsos Global) 05 December 2023 Source: https://www.ipsos.com/en/data-dive-gen-z-women-are-struggling-most-stress-mental-health-issues In East Asia, Many People See China’s Power And Influence
As A Major Threat, A Survey In Five Asian Nations Majorities of adults in Japan, Taiwan and South
Korea see China’s power and influence as a major threat to them. Roughly half
of adults in Hong Kong (48%) agree. And large majorities in all places
surveyed call China at least a minor threat.
In Japan, 76% of adults consider China a major threat. This is comparable to
the share (74%) who said the same in 2013, amid
flare-ups in the East China Sea, and higher than the
share (69%) who said this toward the end of the last decade. (PEW) 05 December 2023 Global Attitudes On An Interconnected World, A Survey
Across 24 Nations A median of 50% say they feel very or somewhat close
to people all over the world, while 46% feel not too or not at all close.
Feeling close to others around the world is more common in Europe than in
other regions. Only 35% express this view in the United States, and it is
even less common in Argentina, Indonesia and Israel. When it comes to
engagement and cooperation with other nations, views differ significantly
among the nations we polled, but a median of 55% want to pay less attention
to problems in other countries and concentrate on problems at home; 43% think
it’s best for the future of their country to be active in world affairs. (PEW) 06 December 2023 Source: https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2023/12/06/attitudes-on-an-interconnected-world/ How The Israel-Hamas War In Gaza Is Changing Arab Views Since October 7, the latest war between Hamas and
Israel has claimed the lives of more than 15,000 Palestinians and over 1,200
Israelis. Scores more have been injured. The war has displaced more than 1.8
million Palestinians and left the fates of many of Israel’s people unknown;
over 100 of those abducted in Israel remain hostages. Fighting has resulted
in damage to 15 percent of the buildings in Gaza, including over 100 cultural
landmarks and more than 45 percent of all housing units. (Foreign Affairs) 14 December 2023 ASIA
822-825-43-01/Polls 16% Prefer
Koizumi As Prime Minister; 36% Choose ‘No One’
The other four were each chosen by less than 10
percent. Sanae Takaichi, minister of economic security,
gained 8 percent of the picks, Kishida received 7 percent, and former Foreign
Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi and LDP Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi each
got 1 percent. However, 36 percent of respondents said none of the
seven is suitable for prime minister, highlighting the lack of a clear public
favorite to lead the country. The Asahi Shimbun conducted the nationwide telephone
survey on Nov. 18 and 19. Since Shinzo Abe became prime minister for the
second time in 2012, Koizumi, Ishiba and Kono have ranked high in surveys on
voters’ preferences for prime minister. Although they were the top three in the latest
survey, the percentages suggest they have lost a considerable amount of
public support. Takaichi, an outspoken conservative who was close to
Abe and has shown her interest in succeeding Kishida, was chosen by 11
percent of male respondents but only 5 percent of women, the survey showed. Motegi, who heads the third-largest LDP faction, and
Hayashi, who is the No. 2 individual in the Kishida faction, the fourth
largest, are considered influential in the political arena, but they are not
particularly well known among the public. Among LDP supporters, Koizumi was picked by 19
percent, followed by Kono at 17 percent, Kishida and Ishiba at 15 percent
each, and Takaichi at 9 percent. 20 November 2023 Source: https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/15062017 822-825-43-02/Polls Nearly Three
Quarters (74%) Of Pakistanis Think That The Environment For Working Women Is
Less Supportive As Compared To Working Men
GENDER BREAKDOWN: 81% of the women agreed with the statement while
only 18% disagreed. There is a 13% difference in the number of women who
agreed with the statement as compared to men. 13 December 2023 Source: https://gallup.com.pk/wp/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/13.12.23.Daily-Poll-English.pdf 822-825-43-03/Polls Overall, 8 In
10 People In Pakistan Are Concerned About Impacts Of Climate Change
According to a recent
report published by the World Bank Group (for the full report click here) using data collected
by Gallup Pakistan it was found that 8 in 10 people in Pakistan are concerned about
impacts of climate change, with females and educated people being more concerned. 13 key learnings from the report are: 1. In a global comparison involving 19 countries
conducted to gain a deeper understanding of attitudes towards climate change
Pakistan’s values lie somewhere in the middle. Ranking #15 in terms of considering
climate change a major threat. 2. Overall, 8 in 10 people in Pakistan are concerned
about impacts of climate change, with females and educated people being more
concerned. 3. People’s perception of climate change can be
affected by their experiences of income shocks. With 16.2% more personally caring about
climate change, and 6.2% more concerned with the impact of climate change on
children when having previously experienced income loss as an impact of climate
change. 4. Although around 80% of people express concern
about climate change and its impacts, when asked specifically about it, it does
not necessarily rank high on their list of priorities to address, with less than 25%
considering it as one of their “Top 3 problems”. 5. Less than half the people believe that climate
change is caused by human activity. People with higher levels of education tend to be
more knowledgeable about climate change issues. 6. 37.7% of illiterate people do not trust any of
the sources of climate related information. This number decreases to 26.1% for
people with higher education or above. 7. Trust in sources of information also varies
depending on the location of people, with rural areas being more skeptical. 34.2% people in
rural areas and 29.6% in urban areas do not trust any sources of climate change
information, making it difficult to convey the necessary information to them
through traditional channels. 8. Despite widespread support, with 94% of parents
demanding climate education in schools, less than half of them discuss climate
change with their children at home. 9. Despite high levels of concern about climate
change, support for personal and government action is relatively low across all forms
of intervention. 10. More than two-thirds of people were prepared to
pay for environmentally friendly goods. There are, however, differences in demand
based on education level. 11. 92% of individuals consider conserving energy
somewhat or very important, however, less than 13% people across all educational groups
mentioned they support energy conservation for environmental reasons. 12. When compared to overall concern for the
environment shared by over 80%, the percentage of people willing to contribute income or
pay taxes for environment is less than 60%. 13. People are more likely
to take energy-saving actions like turning off lights (83.4%) that lead to financial
savings, instead of other actions such as reduction beef or paper, consumption etc. These findings highlight
the complexities presented in understanding and
addressing climate change issues in Pakistan, as well as how the
approach to combat climate change issues varies across different socio-economic groups. 14 December 2023 Source: https://gallup.com.pk/wp/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/World-Bank-Report-PR-4.pdf AFRICA
822-825-43-04/Polls South Africans Want To See
Greater Government Initiative To Promote Gender Equality
In August, South Africa
celebrated its annual Women’s Day and Women’s Month under the theme “Women’s
socio-economic rights and empowerment: Building back better for women’s
improved resilience” (South African Government, 2023). Meeting this goal will
require a holistic approach anchored in the economic, social, and political
empowerment of women (Statistics South Africa, 2022). In South Africa, the gender gap is steadily
narrowing, especially in education, where female students outperform their
male counterparts (Ramaphosa, 2023). But despite marked improvement, women’s
labour force participation rates lag behind men’s. The Quarterly Labour Force
Survey shows that in the second quarter of 2023, women’s participation rate
stood at 54.3% compared to 64.9% for men, representing a
10.6-percentage-point gap (Statistics South Africa, 2023). When
employed, women are overwhelmingly engaged in precarious forms of work
characterised by low pay and difficult work conditions (Teuteberg &
Benjamin, 2023). Significant progress has
been made in political representation, with 42% of seats in Parliament now
held by women (Brothers, 2023). But girls and women
continue to bear the brunt of violence, abuse, harassment, and
discrimination. The Department of Justice and Constitutional Development
reports that it handles more than 50,000 cases of domestic violence and
femicide annually (Maine, 2023), while many other cases of gender-based
violence go unreported. In an attempt to deal with the scourge of violence
against women, the government last year passed the Criminal Law (Sexual
Offences and Related Matters) Amendment Act Amendment Bill, the Criminal and
Related Matters Amendment Bill, and the Domestic Violence Amendment Bill
(South African Government, 2022; Vallabh, 2022). This dispatch reports on a
special survey module included in the Afrobarometer Round 9 questionnaire to
explore Africans’ experiences and perceptions of gender equality in
control over assets, hiring, land ownership, and political leadership.
(For findings on gender-based violence, see Mpako & Ndoma,
2023). In South Africa, findings
show close to gender-equal educational attainment, but women trail men
slightly in control over certain assets and household financial decisions.
Large majorities express support for gender equality in hiring, land ownership,
and political leadership, but many also consider it likely that a woman will
suffer criticism and harassment from the community if she runs for
elective office. Overall, South Africans
say the government should do more to promote equal rights and
opportunities for women, ranking gender-based violence and women’s
under-representation in positions of power as the most important
women’s-rights issues that their government and society must address. Key findings
29 November 2023
822-825-43-05/Polls Young Ethiopians
Prioritise Management Of The Economy For Government Action
In 2004, Ethiopia
introduced its first National Youth Policy, which defines youth as 15- to 29-
year-olds and seeks to ensure that they have professional competencies,
skills, and ethics to contribute to and benefit from the country’s
development. Components of the policy emphasise youth participation in
education and training, economic progress, and democracy and governance
(Ministry of Youth, Sports and Culture, 2004). Measures designed to empower
the youth include the Youth Revolving Fund, a multibillion-birr fund intended
to help unemployed youth in urban and rural areas get jobs (Federal
Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, 2017). Despite such initiatives,
the official rate of youth unemployment as of February 2021 stood at 12% in
rural areas and 23% in cities, and migrants leaving the country in search of
opportunities are predominantly the young aged 15-29 (Ethiopian Statistical
Service, 2021). Ethiopia remains a country where youth development is
low, ranking 158th out of 181 countries on the Global Youth Development
Index (Commonwealth, 2020). The Afrobarometer Round 9
survey (2023) offers some insights into the situation Ethiopian youth
(defined here as ages 18-35). Findings show that young people are more
educated than their elders but are also more likely to be unemployed. The
economy is topmost on the minds of young Ethiopians, who think their
government is doing a poor job on economic management and job creation. A
majority of youth think their country is headed in “the wrong direction,”
though they are somewhat more optimistic than older citizens that things will
improve in the near future. Despite their
dissatisfaction, young citizens are less likely than their elders to engage
in political processes. Key findings
30 November 2023
822-825-43-06/Polls As Climate Change Worsens
Life In Gambia, Citizens Want Collective Action To Fight It
Agriculture and tourism
combine for almost half of the Gambia’s gross domestic product (GDP) (Gambia
Bureau of Statistics, 2022), and both are highly vulnerable to increasingly
frequent and severe climate-related disasters that have plagued the country, including
droughts, floods, windstorms, bushfires, soil intrusion, and coastal erosion.
Climate change poses substantial risks to property, productive assets,
livelihoods, and health, impeding the country’s progress toward its
development objectives (Ministry of Environment, Climate Change and Natural
Resources, 2022; Republic of the Gambia, 2022). The Gambia ranks 148th out
of 182 countries on the Notre-Dame Global Adaptation Initiative’s (2021)
Country Index, which rates both vulnerability to climate change and
resilience. This dispatch reports on a
special survey module included in the Afrobarometer Round 9 questionnaire to
explore Gambians’ experiences and perceptions of climate change. Findings show that a
majority of Gambians say flooding has become more severe in their region over
the past decade – perceptions that are especially common among rural and poor
citizens. Among the slim majority of
Gambians who have heard of climate change, most say it is making life in the
country more difficult. And almost unanimously, they demand greater efforts
by the government and other stakeholders to address the threat. Key findings
01 December 2023 WEST
EUROPE
822-825-43-07/Polls Why Do Britons Think
Inheritance Tax Is Unfair
Topping
the list is the idea that it represents ‘double taxation’ There has been speculation at
various points this year that the government would make cuts to inheritance
tax. YouGov tracker polling has
consistently shown that Britons consider inheritance
tax to be unfair, and a July survey found that a majority (56%) would support
scrapping it. Few estates actually pay inheritance tax (less
than 4% in 2020-21), although YouGov
research for The Times in July found that
approximately 15% of Britons expect to receive an inheritance in future that
they will have to pay the tax on, and 31% expect that the tax will be levied
on assets they themselves leave behind when they die. Nevertheless, these
figures are still significantly smaller than the 61% of Britons who said that
inheritance tax is unfair in a survey in late September. So why do people
consider the tax to be unfair? We asked these respondents to describe their
reasoning for us – respondents answered in their own words, which we have
grouped into the categories below. By far the most common
reason is the perception that inheritance tax represents ‘double taxation’ –
that the deceased had already paid various taxes when they earned their money
and purchased their property, and were now effectively being forced to do so
again in order to pass it on. More than four in ten of those who consider
inheritance tax unfair gave this as a reason (42%). "Why
should anyone have to pay tax on money that has already been taxed god knows
how many times over? Inheritance tax is grossly unfair to anyone who has to
pay it." "People
work all their lives to save and leave something for their children having
already paid tax on it, its a double hit." "People
are taxed on earnings, savings, pensions - so all dues have been paid." Why
is inheritance tax unfair? In a distant second place
(at 17%) was a general rejection of the principle, with respondents simply
saying that the government shouldn’t tax inheritance. That the inheritance tax
threshold kicks in at too low a level was one of the more common responses,
at 10%. Many of these respondents feel that it is unfair that rising house
prices are drawing people who are otherwise not ‘wealthy’ into the
inheritance tax bracket. "House
prices have risen to such a degree that the £325,000 limit affects too many
people and while ordinary folk lose 40%, rich and financially sophisticated
people will find ways around it." "Considering
average house prices currently, the sale after a death of a somewhat ordinary
property attracts this tax." "The
limit is too low for people living in the South where house prices are much
higher than in the North of the country." Why
is inheritance tax unfair? That the 40% inheritance
tax rate is too high is also a source of unfairness for 9% of respondents. "If
an average family works hard and saves it seems wrong that the benefits are
confiscated by such an onerous 40% tax." "Astronomical
rate of tax for £325,000, it should be tiered so the more you inherit the
more tax you pay." "40%
is too high to take from a grieving family and their hard earned
earnings." Why
is inheritance tax unfair? One in nine (11%) are
critical of what they see as a penalising aspect of inheritance tax – that it
punishes those who choose to save in order to pass on a nest egg when they
die, rather than simply spending all the money while they live. "It
is a tax on those who budgeted for their future and that of their families,
often going without." "It's
double taxation, a punishment for being financially responsible and totally
immoral." "People
work hard, save and go without to leave as much as possible to loved ones
only to have a part of it deducted. Others who have not made the effort and
taken from the tax payer have nothing taken away." Why
is inheritance tax unfair? Separately, as can be seen
in some of the examples above, there is a noticeable emotional seam cutting
across categories: that the money involved has been ‘hard earned’, either by
the respondent themselves or by their family members. Around one in seven (15%)
brought this up when explaining why they think inheritance tax is unfair. 23 November 2023 Source:
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/47940-why-do-britons-think-inheritance-tax-is-unfair
822-825-43-08/Polls Britons Support Rejoining
The Single Market, Even If It Means Free Movement
Seven
in ten Britons support a closer relationship with the EU than we have now As we approach the fourth
anniversary of Brexit, 52% of Britons now believe that the UK leaving the EU
was the wrong decision. The Labour party – likely to form the next government
– have so far resisted calls to move towards rejoining the single market,
despite pressure from some businesses who say this could improve the
situation. Joining the single market
would allow for the free movement of goods and services between the UK, the
EU and other non-EU countries who are member of the single market, like
Norway and Lichtenstein. However, this would also likely mean agreeing to the
free movement of people between the UK and the EU – a frightening prospect
for Keir Starmer’s Labour given the role of immigration in driving the Leave
vote. But is this fear justified? Leave
voters backing Labour are keener on joining the single market As could be expected,
Remain voters are more likely to be supportive of joining the single market
than Leave voters. More than eight in ten Remain
voters (83%) would support doing so, compared to around a third (35%) of
Leave voters, who tend to be opposed (45%). YouGov’s latest Westminster voting intention poll has about 18% of Leave voters backing
Labour if there were an election tomorrow, with 29% supporting the
Conservatives and 13% Reform UK. Our data shows that Labour
committing to a return to the single market might not prove as alienating as
Starmer may fear. Of Leavers who would back Labour in an election tomorrow,
53% would support the UK joining the single market, even if this meant allowing
the free movement of people, with three in ten opposed (31%). By contrast, Leave voters
intending to back the Conservatives generally oppose a return to the single
market (54%), although a minority of 29% support doing so. Britons
want closer ties with the EU Whilst Labour has so
far ruled out rejoining the single market, Starmer has asserted his intention to
build closer ties with the EU, pledging to try and establish closer trading
ties with if Labour win at the next election. In general, Britons favour
building closer ties with the EU. Seven in ten Britons (72%) want to see the
UK have closer ties with the EU in some form or another, including a majority
of both Remain (90%) and Leave (64%) voters. By contrast, one in five (19%)
favour the UK maintaining the status quo or further reducing ties with the
EU. The most popular proposals
for the UK’s future relationship with the EU are rejoining the European Union
(31%) and increasing the trading relationship with the EU without joining the
single market (30%). A further one in nine (11%) want to join the single
market, but not the EU. Of the options offered,
most Remain voters favour joining the EU (56%), while those who voted Leave
are instead generally in favour of increasing the amount of trade we do with
the EU without joining the single market (46%). 29 November 2023
822-825-43-09/Polls Just 11% Of Britons Think
COP28 Will Result In Significant Action On Climate Change
Britons
are split on whether climate change spending should be a priority at the
current time The 28th United Nations
Climate Change conference from 30 November - 12 December in Dubai – dubbed
COP28 – will see world leaders gather to discuss how the world is tackling
rising temperatures as we come to the close of the hottest year on record. Very few are paying
attention to the conference, with 81% saying they have heard little or
nothing about it just two days prior to the start of the conference. When asked about what role
different developments can have when it comes to addressing climate change,
meetings of international leaders like COP28 are seen as being the least
influential of all the measures tested. While 79% say the development of
cleaner and more environmentally friendly technologies can play a “very big”
or “significant” role in tackling climate change – the most important
according to the public – just half (52%) say the same of conferences like
COP28. Measures such as companies
promoting more environmentally friendly practices (72%), trade deals that
require countries to cut emissions (68%), pressure from the public for
governments to take action (62%) and United Nations action (61%) are all
likewise seen to have a bigger role than conferences such as COP28. Despite a distinct lack of
enthusiasm for COP28, Britons remain worried about climate change (63% are
currently very or fairly worried), but are cautiously optimistic that there
is still time to tackle the issue, with 60% saying that we can still avoid the
worst effects if we make drastic changes. However, this does not
translate into public support for government spending on climate change. In
fact, the British public are split when it comes to whether climate change
spending should be prioritised – 36% say spending on climate change should be
a priority now, and should be increased, even if this means cuts elsewhere,
while 38% say that there are other priorities for government spending that
are more urgent than climate change. While Rishi Sunak may have
hoped to see his diluting of some net zero policies in September would shift
the dial on whether people see climate change spending as a priority, the
figures do not appear to bear this out. The results are largely similar to our
previous survey in January, when 37% saw climate change as the priority but
34% wanted to priorities other spending areas. Results for this measure
vary drastically according to political persuasion – 2019 Conservative voters
are far more likely to say that there are other priorities right now (59%),
while almost the same proportion (57%) of Labour voters feel that climate change
spending should be seen as a priority at the current time and should be
increased. 30 November 2023
822-825-43-10/Polls Despite Pressures Facing
Young Families Today, Most Parents Take Precious Moments To Play With Their
Babies
For just over one in 14
(7.4%) of these babies, most of those daily interactions will be with their
father, who is their primary caregiver. Just 20 years ago, only one in 1,000
(0.11%) of nine-month-olds were cared for primarily by their dad at this age. The first report from the
Children of the 2020s study,
published today by the UK Department for Education (DfE) and led by UCL in
partnership with Ipsos and the universities of Cambridge and Oxford, and
Birkbeck, University of London, revealed that these home activities are
having positive effects on babies’ understanding of common words, like
‘ball’, ‘bye-bye’ and ‘mummy’, as babies that played more with caregivers
understood more words at this age. Overall, nine-month-olds
understood an average of 14 out of 51 common words. This was similar to
pre-pandemic norms, despite added pressure on today’s families. The findings also showed
that parents are navigating significant challenges in their babies’ first
months, with a quarter facing at least some financial strain and around a
fifth reporting seeking help from a doctor for feelings of depression since
the birth of their child. Commissioned by the DfE,
Children of the 2020s is following more than 8,500 families and their babies,
born in England between September and November 2021. It is the first
long-term, nationally representative study of babies since the UK Millennium
Cohort Study was launched more than 20 years ago. Children of the 2020s will
follow families for at least the first five years of their children’s lives,
shedding new light on the factors that can influence early years development.
The first survey took place when the babies were, on average, nine and a half
months old. The first findings from
the study paint a picture of a new generation of infants and their families. Today’s
parents
Family
finances
Childcare
Screen
use
Play
and language development
Access
to healthcare services
COVID-19
A Department for Education (DfE) spokesperson said: The
department commissioned this research to better understand early childhood
development factors which will help shape policy decisions. We are encouraged
by many parents engaging in activities like reading and play, recognising its
importance in early development. 20 November 2023
822-825-43-11/Polls More Than Two In Five
Britons Worry About How Much Christmas Is Going To Cost
The
cost of Christmas Concern about the cost of Christmas
rises to 58% amongst 18-34s and renters, 57% for ethnic minorities and 50%
amongst the C2DE social grade. Women are more worried than men by a margin of
49% to 38%. Meanwhile, 28% overall feel stressed about preparing for
Christmas, up from 21% three years ago. Women are more stressed about
Christmas than men (33% to 23%) but overall 72% of Britons are not stressed –
including 52% that are ‘not stressed at all’. The
economy and cost of living 55% of Britons expect the
economy to worsen over the next 12 months, 19% think it will improve. This
gives a net score of -36 which is very similar to last month (-34) and the
start of the year (-33 in January). When asked about
difference facets of life in Britain there is a lot of pessimism around –
especially on the NHS and cost of living. 66% expect the cost of living in
Britain to get worse in the next few years and 64% say the same about the
NHS. Gideon
Skinner, Head of Political Research at Ipsos, said: The
rate of inflation may be falling, but Britons are still feeling its impact.
Most people are still pessimistic about the cost of living over the
next few years, and even Christmas does not escape. Even though most
people are still looking forward to the festivities, over 4 in 10 are worried
about its cost – with young people, renters and women in particular feeling
the pressure. Ahead of the Autumn Statement the Prime Minister and Chancellor
have hit their pledge to halve inflation, but will know they will also need
to deliver on their other targets to grow the economy and reduce people’s
financial insecurities over the cost of living to change the public mood. 21 November 2023 Source:
https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/more-two-in-five-britons-worry-about-how-much-christmas-is-going-to-cost
822-825-43-12/Polls Do The Public Praise Or
Blame Rishi Sunak And Jeremy Hunt When It Comes To Inflation
Who
do the public credit for falling inflation? When asked how far various factors have contributed
to falling inflation, we find the public are split on the role of Rishi Sunak
and Jeremy Hunt. 46% think they have contributed a great deal or fair amount
to falling inflation and 43% say they have had not very much impact or have
made no contribution at all. Decisions made by the
Bank of England (60%) and the state of the global economy generally (58%) are
seen to have contributed more.
The
Conservatives and the economy
Prime
Minister Rishi Sunak's pledges Overall, the public
continue to think Sunak’s pledges around easing the cost of living and giving
people financial security (61%), reducing NHS waiting times (55%) and
ensuring people get the NHS care they need more quicky (52%) are most
important to them. Although 2019 Conservative voters also rank pledges around
illegal immigration and economic growth as important. The public also still
think Sunak’s government are performing badly against the pledges that are
most important to them. 62% think his government are doing a bad job easing
the cost of living, 69% think it is doing a bad job reducing NHS waiting
lists, 68% say the same about ensuring people get the NHS care they need more
quickly. On the other hand, given
recent inflation figures, 27% now think Sunak’s government has done a good
job halving inflation this year (+13 points from September) but 43% still
think they have done a bad job (down 14 points in the same time period). Ipsos
Director of Politics Keiran Pedley said of the
findings: These
findings show that there is some improving public goodwill towards Rishi
Sunak and Jeremy Hunt in light of falling inflation but this has not yet led
to a fundamental reassessment of the government’s record on the economy.
Almost half think Sunak and Hunt have contributed a great deal or fair amount
towards falling inflation. However, 6 in 10 still think this government is
doing a bad job easing the cost of living and two-thirds think Sunak and
Hunt’s actions have contributed towards difficulties facing the economy in
the first place. 24 November 2023
822-825-43-13 /Polls 58% Of French People Admit
That They Could Make More Effort To Reduce Their Energy Consumption
Energy
sobriety, a key issue at both the national and local levels Nationwide, in a context still marked by
inflation, against the backdrop of the climate
crisis, the two main concerns of the French are purchasing power (60% rank it among their three main
concerns) and the environment (35%). Located at the
intersection of these two dimensions, the issue of energy sobriety appears more than ever to be a priority issue
for the country. Thus, purchasing power is the most important
factor encouraging the French to reduce their energy consumption (66%),
followed by the environment (21%). At
the local level, mayors themselves are directly affected by the energy
crisis. A significant proportion of them have
had to postpone or abandon projects due to rising energy costs (31%, 57% in
large cities). In fact, it is the 2nd
highest concern of mayors for their municipality (41% cite it
as one of their 3 main concerns) behind
security (43%). In municipalities with more than 2000
inhabitants, energy sobriety even comes in 1st place (62% cite it as one of
their 3 main concerns, 78% in municipalities with 30,000 inhabitants or
more). For their part, the French
recognise the investment of their mayors and municipal teams (66%) in their
municipality, but believe that it is possible to do more (65%), especially in large
cities (73%). On
the side of mayors and citizens alike, new habits to move towards more
sobriety Most
French people say they have made efforts to reduce their energy consumption. On
average, they adopted 2.5 new actions in 2023 to reduce their consumption
(out of a list of 11 actions to reduce their consumption identified by Enedis
and Ipsos). For example, 30% say they have started to turn down the heating
to 19° at home when they did not do so before, and 28% have started to turn
off all their appliances on standby when they are not in use. At the same
time, more than three-quarters of them
monitored their electricity consumption more closely (78%).
However, despite their recognized effectiveness, actions such as insulating
the home and using public transport remain the least adopted because of the
constraints they impose. In addition, the
majority of French people recognise that they could make more of an effort to
reduce their energy consumption (58%). For
their part, mayors have implemented an average of 4.7 measures
to reduce their municipality's energy consumption (out of 9 proposed
measures). However, many French people are not well informed about the
actions put in place by their mayor. The
most common municipal actions were to reduce heating in public buildings
(88%), to turn off public lighting after 22 p.m. (80%) and to renovate
municipal buildings (78%). On the other hand, few have
switched off municipal billboards at night (just under half of the
municipalities concerned), or asked to turn off illuminated advertisements at
night (just under half of the municipalities concerned as well). For their
part, the French are in favour of most
energy sobriety measures, with the exception of those that
involve giving up Christmas lights or closing sports and cultural spaces
(measures put in place by 32% and 23% of municipalities respectively).
Turning off the lights after 22 p.m. is also much less popular in large
cities than in rural areas. Difficulties
in moving towards more effective sobriety at the municipal level, partly
linked to a low use of the services made available Of the mayors who have
made energy sobriety an important objective for their municipality (83%),
most have encountered difficulties in achieving it (91%). They most often say they have faced financial (77%)
and regulatory (49%) constraints, but also a lack of technical expertise and
knowledge (44%). In addition, while a very large majority of
mayors believe that the measures taken have had an impact in terms of energy
savings for the municipality, only 1
in 5 consider that this impact has been "strong" (19%). In this context,
electricity distribution stakeholders are seen as essential partners in
helping mayors control energy consumption. Thus, 92% of mayors who called on their network operator to better
control the energy sobriety of their municipality were satisfied with the
results. So far, however, only a minority of mayors have used their services
(46%). 28 November 2023
822-825-43-14/Polls First Anniversary Of Chat
GPT, 77% Of French People See This Tool As A Revolution
A significant increase in awareness and use of Chat GPT One year after the launch of Chat GPT, a strong increase in
its notoriety
A
rapid craze for Chat GPT, and a use that has become regular for a significant
part of respondents
Significant
attractiveness potential The
French are interested in a wide variety of services offered by Chat GPT or
similar tools
The
shared feeling of an ongoing revolution, with multiple consequences The
French are unanimous on the impact of Chat GPT and AI tools in general
The
perception of the consequences of this revolution varies from one field to
another
A
particularly important impact for the world of work Important
changes coming in the world of work
French
people divided on the impact of AI tools in the workplace
The
mastery of AI is becoming an important issue for the coming years
As
a result, a majority of opinion in favor of teaching on the use of AI
01 December 2023 NORTH
AMERICA
822-825-43-15/Polls Americans More Upbeat
About Future Social Security Benefits
Further, 53% of current
U.S. retirees believe they will continue to receive their full Social
Security benefits, up from 37% in 2010 and 49% in 2015. Forty-three percent
of retirees currently believe their benefits will eventually be cut. Despite the improved
outlook among both retirees and nonretirees, neither group is any more upbeat
about the future of their Social Security benefits now than they were in the
1980s, 1990s and early 2000s. These results are based on
Gallup polling conducted in June and July, including a sample of more than
1,300 nonretirees and over 600 retirees. Social Security’s future
has been a topic of debate for decades. The system is expected to be able to
continue to pay full benefits to recipients through 2033 if no changes are
made to the system. In 2034, the system is projected to be able to pay 80% of
benefits to recipients. President Joe Biden
brought up the future of the system in his 2023 State of the Union speech and
appeared to receive support from both parties to protect Social Security from
near-term cuts in federal budget negotiations. It is unclear to what extent
this recent display of bipartisan consensus on the issue has influenced
Americans’ opinions about their future Social Security benefits. Greater optimism about the
future of Social Security in recent years comes at a time when Americans’ satisfaction with the Social
Security system has
also been higher. Nonretirees
Aged 30 to 49 Not Counting on Getting Benefits Expectations for receiving
Social Security benefits vary by age among nonretirees. As might be expected,
older nonretirees are fairly confident, with 66% of those aged 50 and older
expecting to get benefits. But it is the next oldest
age group, rather than the youngest that is furthest away from retirement,
that is least confident. Thirty-seven percent of nonretirees between the ages
of 30 and 49 believe they will get Social Security benefits, while 61% do not. The youngest adults, those
aged 18 to 29, are divided -- 50% think they will get benefits, and 48% do
not. Compared with 2015, older
and middle-aged nonretirees’ expectations about receiving benefits are not
meaningfully different now. Meanwhile, the youngest age group is
significantly more likely today (50%) than in 2015 (34%) to predict they will
receive benefits. The youngest nonretirees
today are more optimistic about getting Social Security benefits than that
age group has been at any point since 2000. Today, the cohort of 18-
to 29-year-olds consists of the youngest millennials and oldest members of
Generation Z. In 2015, the 18-to-29 age group included only members of the
millennial generation. Many of those people have now aged into the 30-to-49
age bracket and retain more pessimistic views about Social Security. Politics
Modestly Related to Social Security Expectations Democratic nonretirees
(60%) are more likely than Republican (50%) and independent (45%) nonretirees
to expect to receive Social Security benefits when they retire. There are larger party
differences in current retirees' faith that their Social Security benefits
will be maintained. Democratic retirees (69%) are substantially more
confident than Republican retirees (39%) about avoiding cuts to their Social
Security benefits. A slim majority of retired independents, 53%, expect to
continue receiving their current benefits. Party differences on these
items have been inconsistent over time. For example, the party gap in
nonretirees’ belief that they will get Social Security payments is smaller
this year than in 2015 (when the difference was 22 percentage points, 59% for
Democrats and 37% for Republicans), larger than it was in 2001 and 2010 when
there were essentially no party differences, and about the same as it was in
2000 and 2005. When gaps have existed, those who identify with the party of
the incumbent president have typically been more positive about the future of
Social Security. Americans
Prefer Higher Taxes to Benefit Cuts Discussions about
preserving Social Security in the future largely center on raising payroll
taxes of current workers that fund the system, curbing benefits for current
and/or future recipients, and possibly raising the age at which retirees can
receive full Social Security benefits (currently 67 years old). U.S. adults
have typically favored raising Social Security taxes as opposed to curbing
benefits as a means of ensuring the long-term future of the system, but they
are more likely to favor tax increases now than in the past. Sixty-one percent of
Americans say they would prefer the government raise Social Security taxes,
while 31% would rather the government curb Social Security benefits. In three
previous surveys in 2005, 2010 and 2015, the margin in favor of increased
taxes has been smaller than the 30-point gap seen this year, ranging from
nine to 15 points. Majorities of Democrats
(69%) and independents (53%) prefer raising taxes to beef up Social Security,
while 39% of Republicans agree. Fifty-six percent of Republicans prefer the
government curb Social Security benefits for recipients, a view shared by 44%
of independents and 27% of Democrats. Democrats are more likely
today than in the past to favor increased taxes (averaging 59% between 2005
and 2015), while Republicans are now more likely to favor curbing benefits
(averaging 45% in those years). Bottom
Line While policymakers may not
share Americans’ increasingly positive outlook, U.S. adults are more
optimistic about the future of Social Security, at least as it pertains to
them, than they were in Gallup’s most recent surveys in 2010 and 2015. Much
of this increased optimism comes from the youngest Americans, who are roughly
four decades away from retirement. Nonretirees are more
likely to believe that a 401(k) plan will be a major source of income in their retirement than to say this about Social
Security. However, among current retirees, Social Security is the clear
leader over other retirement funding sources, underscoring the importance of
the system to U.S. seniors. The subject of Social
Security has been an issue in the 2024 presidential campaign. Most candidates
have pledged to keep the system largely intact, while some have offered
modest proposals to help ensure the system’s longer-term viability. 08 December 2023 Source:
https://news.gallup.com/poll/546890/americans-upbeat-future-social-security-benefits.aspx
822-825-43-16/Polls Most Of Biden’s Appointed
Judges To Date Are Women, Racial Or Ethnic Minorities – A First For Any
President
Nearly two-thirds of the federal judges President
Joe Biden has appointed so far are women, and the same share are members of
racial or ethnic minority groups, according to a Pew Research Center analysis
of statistics
from the Federal Judicial Center. To put Biden’s judicial
appointments into historical context, we examined how his appointed judges to
date compare with those of other presidents at the same point in their
tenures, going back to Dwight D. Eisenhower in the 1950s. This analysis
begins with Eisenhower because he was the first president to be sworn in to a
first term on the modern inauguration date of Jan. 20. As of Nov. 5 – exactly a
year before the 2024 presidential election – Biden had appointed 145 judges
to the three main tiers of the federal judicial system: the district courts,
the appeals courts and the U.S. Supreme Court. Women accounted for just over
66% of those judges (95 of 145). The 95 women judges Biden
had appointed as of Nov. 5 far exceed both the number and share any other
president had appointed at the same point in their term. For example,
then-President Donald Trump had appointed 36 women judges by the same point
four years ago (24% of his total at the time), while then-President Barack
Obama had appointed 54 women judges (47% of his total at the time). The pattern is similar
when it comes to judges who are racial or ethnic minorities. Nearly
two-thirds of the judges Biden had appointed as of Nov. 5 (96 of 145, or just
over 66%) are Black, Hispanic, Asian American or members of another racial or
ethnic minority group. That is far more than any other president had
appointed at the same point in their tenure. Trump, for instance, had
appointed 22 minority judges by the same stage (14% of his total at the
time), while Obama had appointed 42 (37% of his total at the time). Combining gender with race
and ethnicity, women who are Black, Hispanic, Asian or part of another racial
or ethnic minority group account for 42% of the judges Biden had appointed as
of Nov. 5 (61 of 145). They include Biden’s sole appointee to the U.S. Supreme
Court, Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson, the first Black woman to serve on the
nation’s highest court. How
does Biden compare with other presidents in total judges appointed? Biden does not especially
stand out in terms of the overall number of federal judges he has appointed
so far. He appointed 145 judges through Nov. 5 – fewer than Trump had
appointed at the same point in his presidency (153), but more than Obama had
(115). Overall, Biden’s appointed
judges include one Supreme Court justice (Jackson), 36 appeals court judges
and 111 district court judges. Trump, by comparison, had appointed two
Supreme Court justices by the same point in his tenure (Neil Gorsuch and
Brett Kavanaugh), in addition to 43 appellate judges and 110 district judges. Both Biden and Trump
appointed some people to multiple judgeships. Biden, for example, appointed
Jackson to an appeals court position before elevating her to the Supreme
Court. In this analysis, these judges are counted separately for each
position, but only once in each president’s total. How
many active federal judges were appointed by Biden? Another way of looking at
the effect that each president has had on the federal judiciary is to
evaluate the share of currently active judges who were appointed by
that chief executive. As of Nov. 5, there were
798 active federal judges serving in the 91 district courts and 13 appeals
courts governed by Article III of the U.S. Constitution, as well as on the
Supreme Court. Biden had appointed 18% of those judges. Of the federal judges who
were active as of Nov. 5, larger shares were appointed by other recent
presidents. Trump appointed 28% of active judges, while Obama appointed 31%
and George W. Bush appointed 16%. Not surprisingly, relatively few judges who
are still active today were appointed by presidents who served more than two
decades ago – including Bill Clinton (4%), George H.W. Bush (1%) and Ronald
Reagan (1%). How
many active federal judges were appointed by Democratic versus Republican
presidents? The current federal
judiciary is closely divided between appointees of Democratic presidents, who
comprise 54% of all active judges, and those chosen by Republican presidents,
who account for 46%. However, the breakdown
varies by type of court. More than half of active judges in district courts
were appointed by Democratic presidents (56%), while a smaller share (44%)
were appointed by GOP presidents. The reverse is true in the appeals courts,
where 53% of active judges were appointed by Republican presidents and 47%
were appointed by Democrats. The Supreme Court consists of six justices
appointed by Republican presidents and three justices appointed by Democrats,
a 67%-33% split. 4 December 2023
822-825-43-17/Polls Americans’ Views Of The
Israel-Hamas War
A new Pew Research Center
survey, conducted Nov. 27-Dec. 3 among 5,203 adults, finds sizable partisan
and age differences on these questions, as well as about many other aspects
of the two-month-old war:
Related: About
half of Republicans now say the U.S. is providing too much aid to Ukraine The war between Israel and
Hamas has spurred a number of concerns among Americans, including the
possibility of a wider regional conflict and terror attacks in this country: Bipartisan
concern over violence against Jews in the U.S. Another 31% say they are
somewhat concerned about this; just 19% have little or no concern about
increasing violence against American Jews. Nearly identical shares of
Democrats (49%) and Republicans (48%) say they are extremely or very
concerned about the possibility of increasing violence against Jews in this
country. Democrats
more likely than Republicans to express concern about increased violence
against U.S. Muslims About half of Democrats
(53%) say they are extremely or very concerned about the possibility that
violence against Muslims in the U.S. will increase, compared with 22% of
Republicans. While about half of
Republicans (53%) say they are at least somewhat concerned
about the prospect of rising violence against Muslims in the U.S., 46% say
they are not too concerned or not at all concerned about this. That compares
with 15% of Democrats. (Explore this further in chapter 2.) Biden
administration’s response to Israel-Hamas war viewed more negatively than
positively Roughly a third of adults
(35%) approve of the Biden administration’s response to the Israel-Hamas war,
while 41% disapprove and 24% are not sure.
Americans generally differ
over whether President Joe Biden is striking the right balance in dealing
with the Israelis and Palestinians (25%), favoring the Israelis too much
(21%), or favoring the Palestinians too much (16%). Nearly four-in-ten adults
say they are not sure how Biden is handling this. (Explore this further in chapter 3.) Public
is divided in views of Israel’s military operation against Hamas Americans also differ over
Israel’s ongoing military operation against Hamas, with nearly a third (32%)
not sure. About a quarter (27%) say
Israel is going too far in its current military operation, while about as
many (25%) say it is taking the right approach; 16% of Americans say Israel
is not going far enough militarily. More than four-in-ten
Democrats (45%) say Israel is going too far in its military operation against
Hamas, compared with 12% of Republicans. There also are age
differences in these opinions, with younger Americans more likely than older
age groups to say Israel is going too far. Other
important findings About
half of Americans say a two-state solution is still possible in the future. Currently,
52% say that, in the future, a way can be found for Israel and an independent
Palestinian state to coexist peacefully; 45% say this is not possible.
Democrats (62%) are more likely than Republicans (43%) to say that a
peaceful, two-state arrangement is possible. About
a quarter of Americans (26%) are following the Israel-Hamas war extremely or
very closely. Another 37% say they are
following news about the war somewhat closely, while 36% are following not
too or not at all closely. As with most international
news events, younger adults are following developments in the conflict less
closely than are older people. About a third of adults ages 50 and older
(35%) say they are following the war extremely or very closely, roughly
double the share of those under 50 (18%). Americans
who have been paying greater attention to news about the war are more likely
than others to have an opinion about the administration’s response and to
approve of it. Both Democrats and Republicans
who have been following the war extremely or very closely give the
administration much higher ratings than do those who have been following the
conflict less closely. 8 December 2023 Source:
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/12/08/americans-views-of-the-israel-hamas-war/
822-825-43-18/Polls About Half Of Republicans
Now Say The U.S. Is Providing Too Much Aid To Ukraine
A new Pew Research Center
survey, conducted Nov. 27 to Dec. 3, 2023, among 5,203 members of the
Center’s nationally representative American Trends Panel, finds that:
Public attention to the
Russia-Ukraine conflict is little changed in recent months. Six-in-ten
Americans, including similar shares of Republicans (62%) and Democrats (61%),
say they follow news about the invasion at least somewhat closely. How
much of a threat to the U.S. is Russia’s invasion of Ukraine? A third of Americans say
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a major threat to U.S. interests. A similar
share (34%) say it is a minor threat, while 10% say it is not a threat. These views have changed
only modestly since June. But in March 2022, half of Americans said Russia’s invasion
posed a major threat to U.S. interests. As has been the case for
the last year, Democrats are more likely than Republicans to say Russia’s
invasion is a major threat (40% vs. 27%). But people in both parties are less
likely to say this now than in the early days of the war in March 2022. Views
of the Biden administration’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine Around four-in-ten U.S.
adults (39%) say they approve of the Biden administration’s response to
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, while a similar share (41%) disapprove.
Two-in-ten say they are not sure. Disapproval of the
administration’s response has increased slightly (from 35% to 41%) since
June. A majority of Democrats
(59%) approve of the administration’s response, while 22% disapprove. In
contrast, a slightly larger majority of Republicans (63%) disapprove of the administration’s
response, while 21% approve. In both parties, somewhat
larger shares now disapprove of the Biden administration’s response to the
invasion than did so in June, when 57% of Republicans and 16% of Democrats
said they disapproved. 8 December 2023
822-825-43-19/Polls Older Workers Are Growing
In Number And Earning Higher Wages
Linked to their higher
wages, today’s older workers are different from older workers of the past in
other important ways:
Continuing a longstanding
trend, older workers are more than twice as likely as younger workers to be
self-employed (23% are, compared with 10% of workers ages 25 to 64). Taking all these factors
into account – more older adults in the workforce, working longer hours with
higher levels of education and greater pay per hour – older workers’ overall
contribution to the labor force has grown quite a bit. In 2023, they accounted
for 7% of all wages and salaries paid by U.S. employers. That is more than
triple the share in 1987 (2%). A recent Pew Research Center survey found that workers ages 65 and older
are more satisfied with their jobs overall than younger workers. They’re also
more likely to say they find their job enjoyable and fulfilling all or most
of the time, and less likely to say they find it stressful. In addition to the key
findings covered in this overview, the two sections that follow provide more
detail on: Gender,
race and the older workforce The demographic makeup of
the U.S. workforce overall has changed substantially in recent decades. Some
of those changes reflect broader societal shifts – like more women entering
the labor force and going to college. Others are tied to the changing racial
and ethnic makeup of the country. These trends can be seen across the older
and younger workforces. By
gender Women make up a larger
share of the older workforce than they have in the past. Today, women
represent 46% of all workers ages 65 and older. By comparison, their share
was 40% in 1987 and 33% in 1964. This trend mirrors the
pattern seen among younger workers: Women now make up 47% of employed adults
ages 25 to 64, up from 44% in 1987 and 33% in 1964. In addition, older women
who are working today are much more likely than their predecessors to have a
four-year college degree: 42% do, compared with only 12% of working older
women in 1987. Within the older workforce, women are now about as likely as
men to have a bachelor’s degree or more education: 42% and 45% do,
respectively. When it comes to the
younger workforce today, women are more likely than men to have a bachelor’s
degree or more education. Among workers ages 25 to 64, 49% of women have a
four-year college degree, compared with 41% of men. In years past, men were
more likely than women to have a college degree within both the older and
younger workforces. Overall, educational
attainment gains among women in the older and younger workforces are likely
attributed to growing shares of women getting a four-year
college degree over
the past few decades. In fact, there are now more women than men among all
college-educated workers. By
race and ethnicity The young adult population
is at the forefront of racial and ethnic change
in the U.S., and the
demographics of the labor force reflect that. Majorities of both the
older and younger workforces are White, but those shares have declined from
previous decades. Meanwhile, shares of Black and Hispanic adults have risen
within both workforces since 1987. Still, the younger
workforce remains more racially and ethnically diverse. Today, 59% of workers
ages 25 to 64 are White, compared with 75% of those 65 and older. And 19% of
workers among the younger workforce are Hispanic, compared with 9% of older
workers. In addition, a greater
share of younger workers today are foreign born: 20%, compared with 16% of
older workers. (Data on shares of foreign- and native-born adults is not
available prior to 1994.) 14 December 2023
822-825-43-20/Polls Falling Inflation Provides
Scant Relief As Canadians Cool Holiday Spending For A Second Year
The holiday shopping
season may be underway, but the Grinch of inflation continues to dampen
holiday cheer. For seven quarters in a
row, more than two-in-five Canadians report feeling left behind as the cost
of living rises. Currently, 46 per cent feel they aren’t keeping up
financially, nearly quadruple the number who say they are getting ahead
(12%). Since the summer, a majority of Canadians have reported they find it
difficult to feed their family as prices at the grocery store continue to
rise faster than other elements of Statistics Canada’s Consumer Price Index. The Bank of Canada may be
relieved by the recent deceleration of inflation as it considers its next
policy rate decision in early December, but Canadians appear more discouraged
than not as they look ahead to 2024. Two-in-five (40%) expect to end next year
in a similar financial position, while one-third (33%) see their
circumstances worsening. Fewer than one-in-five (18%) express optimism that
the next 12 months will brighten their financial picture. More
Key Findings:
About ARI The Angus Reid Institute (ARI) was
founded in October 2014 by pollster and sociologist, Dr. Angus Reid. ARI is a
national, not-for-profit, non-partisan public opinion research foundation
established to advance education by commissioning, conducting and
disseminating to the public accessible and impartial statistical data,
research and policy analysis on economics, political science, philanthropy,
public administration, domestic and international affairs and other
socio-economic issues of importance to Canada and its world. INDEX Part
One: Cost of living dominates top issues Part
Two: Household finances snapshot
Part
Three: The season of giving?
Part
One: Cost of living dominates top issues October economic data
brought welcome news for the Bank of Canada. Inflation cooled to an annual rate of 3.1
per cent – nearing
the central bank’s target of two per cent – with core inflation measures, which exclude the more volatile items in
the Consumer Price Index, down to two-year lows. These among other recent data have many
economists expecting the Bank of Canada to hold steady on interest rates in
December and anticipating rate decreases as soon as the first half of next year. The federal government
said it was doing its part to keep a lid on inflation by pledging to keep
deficits in check as part of its fall economic statement. That assertion, however,
was met with some skepticism from opposition Conservatives as the economic statement added $20
billion of new spending, though many of those measures are aimed at addressing cost of living
concerns. Conservative
leader Pierre Poilievre was quick to point out a report by Scotiabank that found spending by governments –
both provincial and federal – drove the Bank of Canada’s policy rate two
percentage points higher than it would have gone otherwise. Still, as politicians
point fingers, Canadians are left to deal with the effects of two years of
accelerated inflation. Three-in-five (61%) Canadians choose the cost of
living as the top issue facing the country currently, continuing to outpace
concerns around health care (46%), housing affordability (32%), climate
change (24%) and the economy more generally (21%). The chorus of voices
concerned with inflation is loud nationwide, as the rising cost of living
ranks as the top issue in every province in the country: Part
Two: Household finances snapshot More
than two-in-five say they’re falling behind, few optimistic for the year
ahead The impacts of prolonged
high inflation can be seen in Canadians’ financial assessments. For two
years, a plurality of Canadians have said their financial circumstances have
declined. Currently more than two-in-five (46%) say that is the case. Prior
to 2022, those who felt they had tread water always outweighed those who felt
they were sinking under the economic waves: Financial optimism has
also declined steadily since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in early
2020. Fewer than one-in-five (18%) feel they will be in a better position
financially in one year’s time. Twice as many (40%) instead feel they’ll at
best be in a similar position, while one-third (33%) are pessimistic about
their financial future: Majority
say feeding their families is difficult In recent months, food
inflation has slowed, but grocery prices still rose 5.4 per cent year-over-year in October, higher than overall rate of inflation.
And slowing inflation does not provide relief for Canadians at the grocery
store. TD Bank economist Leslie Preston estimated Canadians are paying more than 20 per cent more for their
groceries than three years ago, the biggest increase in four decades. A majority (54%) of
Canadians say they find feeding their household difficult, outnumbering the
44 per cent who instead find it easy. These struggles, too, have persisted
over the past two years: Economic
Stress Index The Angus Reid Institute
developed the Economic Stress Index in January 2020 to analyze and understand
Canadians’ economic circumstances. The Index includes Canadians’ responses to
questions appraising their financial circumstances, including concerns over
debt, housing costs, and grocery bills (click here to see how the index is scored). The Economic Stress Index
finds three-in-ten (31%) Struggling in the current financial circumstances,
one-quarter (25%) Uncomfortable, and smaller groups Comfortable (22%) and
Thriving (22%). These proportions are similar to figures seen earlier this year. Economic stress is not
distributed evenly across the country. More than one-third in Saskatchewan
(38%), Alberta (36%), B.C. (34%) and Atlantic Canada are assessed to be
Struggling. Those in Manitoba and Quebec are more likely to be Comfortable
and Thriving than others elsewhere in the country (see detailed tables). Part
Three: The season of giving? As the holiday season
approaches, Canadians are varied in their assessments on how they expect to
approach the holiday season financially. One-quarter (25%) anticipate
spending more, but more (34%) say they will be pinching their pennies. More
than one-third (36%) believe they will be spending about the same as they did
last year. The youngest Canadian adults are more likely to say they’ll be
spending more, while 35- to 54-year-olds say they have a tighter budget than
years past: Canadians
cutting back on presents, charitable giving As rent, mortgages and
grocery bills increase, many Canadians say they are cutting discretionary
spending. Three-in-five (61%) say they have cut back on unnecessary expenses
in recent months and a majority (55%) say their holiday spending has taken a
hit as life has become more expensive. Large groups also say they are
delaying major purchases (46%), scaling back on charitable giving (37%) and
downsizing vacations (35%). These data are similar to figures seen last
December, underlining the fact that financial difficulties have persisted for
a year. Those Struggling in this
fiscal environment are much more likely to be making cuts to spending in
recent months. Nearly all (98%) have cut at least one discretionary element
from recent household budgets. Meanwhile, more than two-in-five (44%) of the
Thriving have not: 30 November 2023 Source:
https://angusreid.org/christmas-econ-canada-holiday-spending-inflation-charitable-giving/ AUSTRALIA
822-825-43-21/Polls Readership Of Magazines Is
Up 3.5% From A Year Ago With Increases In Readership For All Magazine
Categories
15.1
million Australians read magazines in print or online Print
readership increased for an exceptional 14 magazine categories compared to a
year ago The increases in
readership were widespread over the last year with a large majority of
magazine categories (14 in total) increasing their readership. The final
pandemic-era restrictions were lifted by October 2022. There were five magazine
categories to increase their total readership by more than 100,000 people
compared to a year ago led by the most widely read magazine category of all,
Food & Entertainment magazines, which increased its print readership by
4.3 per cent to 7,494,000. The second most widely
read category of Home & Garden magazines increased their readership by a
large 12.1 per cent to 4,251,000 and Mass Women’s magazines were up 4.5 per
cent to 2,830,000. There were also
improvements for Business, Financial & Airline magazines, up a large 29.2
per cent to 1,313,000, Health & Family magazines, up 3.6 per cent to
1,333,000, Women’s Fashion Magazines, up 19.9 per cent to 996,000, TV
Magazines, up 9.8 per cent to 617,000, Sports Magazines, up 13 per cent to
522,000, Women’s Lifestyle Magazines, up 3.5 per cent to 353,000, Computing,
Gaming & Info Tech Magazines, up a large 36.2 per cent to 320,000 and
Fishing Magazines, up 13.7 per cent to 257,000. Eight
of the top 10 magazines increased their print readership over the past year
with Better Homes & Gardens and The Australian Women’s Weekly again the
most widely read paid magazines An impressive eight of the
top 10 most widely read magazines increased their print readership over the
last year and looking more broadly an impressive 20 out of the top 25. Better Homes & Gardens
is Australia’s most widely read paid magazine with print readership of
1,805,000, up 10.9 per cent on a year ago ahead of the The Australian Women’s
Weekly on 1,336,000, up 8.3 per cent. In the top ten magazines
the biggest improver from a year ago is the National Geographic which has
increased its readership by an impressive 22.5 per cent to 1,011,000 and is
one of only three paid magazines with a readership of over 1 million. Two other paid magazines
in the top ten have increased their print readership over the last year led
by Woman’s Day, up 4.3 per cent to 783,000 and House & Garden with a
large increase of 20.4 per cent to 696,000. Fresh
Ideas & Coles magazine are the most widely read with around 5 million
readers each Australia's two most
widely read free magazines are Fresh Ideas (from Woolworths) with a growing
print readership of 5,058,000, up 6.1 per cent on a year ago just ahead of
Coles magazine with readership increasing 3.1 per cent to 4,970,000. Bunnings magazine is the
third most widely read free magazine with a print readership of 1,834,000, up
16.5 per cent on a year ago, ahead of the NRMA’s magazine Open Road (NSW)
which rounds out the top four free magazines with a readership of 1,247,000. Other magazines to
increase their print readership over the past year included Take 5 Bumper
Monthly, up 5.6 per cent to 546,000, Take 5 (Weekly), up 2.5 per cent to
493,000, Qantas Magazine, up 38.7 per cent to 491,000 (the largest increase of any of the top 15 most
widely read magazines as Australians returned to travelling),
That’s Life!, up 3.8 per cent to 489,000, Australian Geographic, up 25.5 per
cent to 487,000, Gardening Australia, up 8.0 per cent to 472,000, Vogue
Australia, up 29.3 per cent to 461,000, AFL Record, up 47.4 per cent to
401,000, TV Week, up 8.8 per cent to 395,000, Home Beautiful, up 28.2 per
cent to 391,000 and Reader’s Digest Australia, up 8.7 per cent to 362,000
and Marie Claire, up 29.7 per cent to
307,000 and the fastest growing fashion title in Australia. Top
25 Magazines by print readership – September 2023
Full Magazine Print Readership Results
available to view here. The five most read categories of magazines by print
readership
Food
& Entertainment magazines number one with total print readership of
almost 7.5 million Food & Entertainment
is again Australia's best performing magazine category and is now read by
7,494,000 Australians, or 34.4% of the population – over 3 million ahead of
any other category. This is an increase of over 300,000, up 4.3 per cent, on
a year ago with an impressive six out of the seven titles in the category
increasing their print readership compared to a year ago. The free supermarket
titles remain the clear leaders in the category led by Woolworth’s Fresh
Ideas read by 5,058,000 Australians, up 289,000 (up 6.1 per cent) on a year
ago, just ahead of Coles magazine with a print readership of 4,970,000, up
151,000 (up 3.1 per cent). There were also increases
for Delicious, up 1.8 per cent to 289,000, Australian Gourmet Traveller, up
7.3 per cent to readership of 220,000, Cooking with Australian Women’s
Weekly, up 21.6 per cent to a readership of 124,000 and New Idea Food, up 1
per cent to 106,000. Home
& Garden magazines are in second place and read by over 4.2 million
Australians Home & Garden
magazines are now read by 4,251,000 Australians, up a large 459,000 (up 12.1
per cent) on a year ago accounting for almost one-in-five Australians (19.5%
of the population). There were a majority of eleven (out of 17) magazines in
the category to increase their print readership on a year ago. Australia’s most widely
read paid magazine is again Better Homes & Gardens with a print
readership of 1,805,000 – 1.1 million more than any other paid magazine in
the category and up 10.9 per cent on a year ago. The most widely read Home
& Garden magazine is the freely available Bunnings magazine which is now
read by 1,834,000, up 16.5 per cent on a year ago, and is the only other
magazine in the category with a readership over 1 million. Other well-known and
widely read magazines in this category include House & Garden with a
growing readership of 696,000, up 20.4 per cent on a year ago, Gardening
Australia with a readership of 472,000, up 8 per cent on a year ago, Home
Beautiful with a readership of 391,000, up 28.2 per cent on a year ago and
Vogue Living with a readership of 250,000, up 17.4 per cent on a year ago. Other magazines to grow
their print readership over the last year were Organic Gardener, up 20.6 per
cent to 170,000, Inside Out, up 8.2 per cent to 132,000, Australian Country
Homes, up 48.6 per cent to 107,000, Home Design, up 3.3 per cent to 95,000 and
Backyard & Outdoor Living, up 70.5 per cent to 75,000. Print
readership of General Interest magazines virtually unchanged at almost 4.1
million 4,084,000 Australians, or
18.7% of the population, read at least one of the general interest magazines
in the year to September 2023 and there were four magazines to increase their
print readership. National Geographic was
the clear standout magazine and increased its readership by an impressive
22.5 per cent to 1,011,000 to be one of only three paid magazines read by
over 1 million Australians Another magazine to see a
large increase in readership was Australian Geographic with a print
readership of 487,000 (up 25.5 per cent). Also increasing their readership
were Reader’s Digest Australia, up 8.7 per cent to a readership of 362,000
and Big Issue, with a print readership of 303,000 after an increase of 27.8
per cent – the largest percentage increase of any magazine in the category.. There were also strong
performances by motoring club magazines: Open Road (NSW) read by 1,247,000,
Road Ahead (Qld) read by 640,000, Horizons (WA) read by 268,000 and SA Move
read by 190,000. Mass
Women’s magazines are now read by over 2.8 million Australians – up 4.5 per
cent Mass Women’s magazines are
now read by 2,830,000 Australians equal to 13 per cent of the population, and
up 4.5 per cent on a year ago. The category includes five magazines read by
more than 500,000 people – more than any other category. Easily the most widely
read magazine in the category is The Australian Women’s Weekly with a print
readership of 1,336,000, an increase of 8.3 per cent on a year ago ahead of
second-placed Woman’s Day with a readership of 783,000, up 4.3 per cent on a
year ago. The popular
‘competition-focused’ magazines are also widely read led by That’s Life! Mega
Monthly read by 554,000, Take 5 Bumper Monthly with a readership of 546,000,
an increase of 5.6 per cent on a year ago, Take 5 (Weekly) with a readership
of 493,000, up 2.5 per cent on a year ago and That’s Life, up 3.8 per cent
from a year ago and read by 489,000. Another widely read
magazine in the category is the third-placed New Idea with a readership of
561,000. The biggest increase in the category was achieved by Royals Monthly
(by New Idea) which, during a year in which Queen Elizabeth passed on and
King Charles ascended to the throne, increased readership by 269,000, or 25.7
per cent on a year ago. Health
& Family magazines increase their print readership by 3.6% from a year
ago Overall the Health &
Family magazines print readership increased by a 3.6 per cent to 1,333,000
(6.1% of the population) with four out of the five magazines in the category
increasing their readership. Leading the way was
by Diabetic Living, up 19.6 per cent to 275,000 and WellBeing, up 45.2
per cent to 244,000. There was also an increase for Prevention by 1.3 per
cent to 76,000 while the third most widely read magazine in the category was
Healthy Food Guide with a readership of 160,000. Women’s Fashion and Business & Financial magazines
increase their readership There was growth in
several smaller magazine categories with the Women’s Fashion, Business,
Financial & Airline, Women’s Lifestyle, TV, Sports, Music & Movies,
Motorcycle, Fishing, Computer, Gaming & Info Tech and Crafts categories
all increasing their print readership in the 12 months to September 2023. Women’s
Fashion magazines performed well over the last
year increasing category readership by 19.9 per cent to 996,000. All four
continuing magazines increased their readership led by Marie Claire, up by a
category leading 29.7 per cent to 307,000 and Vogue Australia, the most widely
read magazine in the category, up 29.3 per cent to 461,000. Also increasing
were Frankie, up 15.3 per cent to 285,000 and Harper’s Bazaar, up 14.6 per
cent to 164,000. Business,
Financial & Airline magazines increased
their readership by 29.2 per cent to 1,313,000 over the last year led by
Qantas Magazine, up 38.7 per cent to 491,000, Money Magazine, up 9.9 per cent
to 222,000, Time, up 19.5 per cent to 221,000, The Monthly, up 12.9 per cent
to 192,000 and New Scientist, up 1.4 per cent to 213,000. Women’s
Lifestyle magazines were an excellent performer
over the last year growing overall print readership by 3.5 per cent to
353,000. Two of the magazines in the category increased their readership on a
year ago led by English Woman’s Weekly, up 5.2 per cent to 122,000, ahead of MindFood
which increased its readership by 5.6 per cent to 94,000. Motorcycle
magazines are read by 193,000 Australians, up
2.1 per cent on a year ago and three of the four magazines in the category
increased their readership on a year ago. The magazines to grow their
readership were Australian Motorcycle News, up 9.1 per cent to 108,000, Road
Rider, up an impressive 23.1 per cent to 48,000 and Dirt Action, up 2 per
cent to 50,000. Other
magazines to perform strongly included the AFL
Record (Apr-Sep), up an excellent 47.4 per cent to 401,000, TV Week, up 8.8
per cent to 395,000, Wheels, up 29.2 per cent to 292,000, Foxtel Magazine, up
21.7 per cent to 264,000, Rolling Stone, up 10.5 per cent to 243,000, Just
Cars, up 10 per cent to 232,000, Golf Australia, up 16.4 per cent to 149,000,
Fresh Water Fishing Australia, up 51.7 per cent to 132,000, Play Australia
Magazine, up 65.8 per cent to 126,000, APC, up 29.4 per cent to 110,000, PC Powerplay,
up 6.1 per cent to 87,000, Homespun, up 16.9 per cent to 76,000 and Quilters
Companion, up 4.6 per cent to 68,000. Are
Media’s ‘Now to Love’ digital platform is accessed by around 1 million
Australians The results for the 12
months to September 2023 for Magazine Publishers are strong with the 4 week
digital platform audience data showing Are Media’s ‘Now to Love’ website
attracting an audience of around 1 million Australians in an average 4 week
period. Are Media’s ‘Now to Love’ platform allows advertisers to reach their
audience in new ways with innovative online offerings. Many of Are Media’s
magazine brands (including The Australian Women’s Weekly, Woman’s Day, Take 5
and TV Week) consolidate their online presence on the ‘Now to Love’ platform.
Of those magazines, Woman’s Day reaches a total cross-platform audience of
over 2.5 million people while The Australian Women’s Weekly reaches over 2.2
million people. In addition, other
magazines with wide audiences include Better Homes & Gardens with an
audience of almost 2.3 million, Are Media’s Take 5 (weekly), TV Week and New
Idea with total audiences of well over 1.7 million and Take 5 Bumper Monthly
and with an audience of over 1.5 million readers. Top
15 Magazines – Total Cross-Platform Audience
Full Magazine Total Cross-Platform Audience
results available to view here. Total
cross-platform audience includes print – average issue readership and digital
– website visitation and app usage in an average 4 weeks.. #For additional
detail on the platforms available for each magazine visit the Roy Morgan
website. Michele
Levine, CEO, Roy Morgan, says readership of magazines has increased
impressively over the last year with 14 magazine categories increasing their
readership compared to a year ago: “The
latest Roy Morgan readership survey shows 15.1 million Australians (69.2% of
all Australians aged 14+) now read magazines whether in print or online while
print readership has grown strongly over the last year and is up 3.5 per cent
to 11.6 million. “The
excellent result shows magazine readership increasing across 14 out of 16
magazine categories – including nine categories which increased readership by
over five per cent on a year ago. “The
most impressive increase was for the Home & Garden Magazines which
increased print readership by 12.1 per cent to 4,251,000 – an increase of
over 450,000 from a year ago. Of the 17 magazines in the category there were
11 that experienced an increase and an exceptional eight that increased their
readership by at least 10 per cent. “Other
significant results were recorded by Food & Entertainment Magazines, up
4.3 per cent to 7,494,000, Mass Women’s Magazines, up 4.5 per cent to
2,830,000, Health & Family Magazines, up 3.6 per cent to 1,333,000,
Business, Financial & Airline Magazines, up 29.2 per cent to 1,313,000,
Women’s Fashion Magazines, up 19.9 per cent to 996,000, Sports Magazines, up
13 per cent to 522,000 and Women’s Lifestyle Magazines, up 3.5 per cent to
353,000. “The
most popular magazines continue to draw large audiences to their print
editions and over 1.8 million people now read Better Homes & Gardens, up
an impessive 10.9 per cent on a year ago. “In
addition, over 1.3 million (up 8.3 per cent) read The Australian Women’s
Weekly, over 1 million (up 22.5 per cent) read National Geographic, over
780,000 read Woman’s Day (up 4.3 per cent) and over 690,000 read House &
Garden (up 20.4 per cent). “The
full cross-platform and print readership results for the year to September
2023 show magazines are reaching a large majority of Australians – 15.1
million either in print or online via the web or app. Magazines are an
excellent medium to reach valuable audiences of all ages that have more
discretionary income to spend than the average Australian.” 28 November 2023
822-825-43-22/Polls There Were Nearly Two
Million Extra Vehicle Insurance Policies In 2023
Source:
Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia). Base:
Australians aged 18+; Nov21-Oct22, n=53,865 , Nov22-Oct23, n=53,211;
Excluding ‘can’t say’ responses. *Derived from the question “Which types of (car) insurance cover do you
personally have…including in your name and jointly with someone else?” These are some of the
latest findings from Roy Morgan’s Single Source insurance data derived from
in-depth personal interviews conducted with over 60,000 Australians per
annum. Australians
looked for a better deal for more vehicle insurance policies in 2023 than in
2022. The increasing cost of
living over the last two years is putting pressure on family budgets and
driving more people to look around for the best deals on offer, although most
are still deciding to renew their policies with the same company. In the year to October
2023, 7.7% of vehicle insurance policies switched to another company
(equating to 2.6 million vehicle policies), and 25.9% (equating to 8.7
million vehicle policies) were renewed after approaching another company. In
total, people looked for a better deal for 11.3 million vehicle policies, up
from 10.5 million vehicle policies in the year to October 2022. Of the remaining vehicle
insurance policies, in the year to October 2023, 20.3 million policies were
renewed without approaching another company and 2.1 million policies were
purchased by those taking out vehicle insurance for the first time (“new
entrants”). Action
taken with vehicle insurance policies in the last 12 months (2022 vs. 2023)*: Source:
Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia). Base:
Australians aged 18+; Vehicle Insurance (incl CTP) customers, Nov21-Oct23,
n=53,865, Nov22-Oct23, n=53,211; Excluding ‘can’t say’ responses. *Note:
There were 1.6m more policies in October 2023 compared to 12 months earlier.
Considering there were 2.1m ‘new entrant’ policies in October 2023, this
indicates 500,000 policies were not renewed in the 12 months to October 2023. In
2023 an increasing number of vehicle insurance policies were purchased by new
entrants taking out vehicle insurance for the first time. AAMI, Allianz and
NRMA have the largest share among new entrants’ vehicle insurance policies. In the year to October
2023, 6.3% of vehicle insurance policies were purchased by new entrants,
equating to 2.1 million policies. This was an increase from 12 months
earlier, when only 5.9% of vehicle insurance policies were purchased by new
entrants, equating to 1.9 million policies. Analysing the company
specific data on vehicle insurance closely shows that some companies are
performing better than others at securing vehicle insurance policies among
new entrants. AAMI had the largest share in the 12 months to October 2023
(with 12.1% of vehicle insurance policies), ahead of Allianz (9.7%) and NRMA
(8.8%). These organisations were followed by Budget Direct (8.3%), Suncorp
Insurance (5.9%), and RACQ (5.8%). New
entrants – percentage of policies in 2023 by insurer Source:
Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia). Base:
Australians aged 18+; Vehicle Insurance (incl CTP) customers, Nov22-Oct23,
n=53,865 , Nov22-Oct23, n=53,211; Excluding ‘can’t say’ responses. Michele
Levine, CEO, Roy Morgan, says an increasing number of Australians are
‘shopping around’ before renewing their vehicle insurance policies, but over
85% of policy holders eventually stick with the same company: “The
latest Roy Morgan data on vehicle insurance policies shows that in the year
to October 2023 over 11.3 million vehicle insurance policies were at risk of
being switched to another provider, up from around 10.5 million 12 months
ago. “Of
the 11.3 million at risk policies in the vehicle insurance market, the large
majority, around 8.7 million, were eventually renewed with the same company.
However, this does leave 2.6 million vehicle insurance policies that were
eventually switched. “These
figures show the number of policies at risk of being switched increased in
the last year coinciding with the highest level of inflation in over 30 years
and the most rapid increase in interest rates this century, up 4% points
since May 2022 to 4.1% in October 2023. This appears to be leading people to
monitor their ongoing costs closely. “The
data highlighted here is only a small portion of what is available from Roy
Morgan on all types of vehicle insurance and can be trended over many years.
The information is derived from in-depth personal interviews conducted with
over 1,000 Australians per week and over 60,000 per year. “To
learn more about what drives the decisions of policy holders in the various
insurance markets and how to tap into the business opportunities available
for insurers contact Roy Morgan.” 04 December 2023 Source:
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/vehicle-insurance-policies-in-2023
822-825-43-23/Polls Australian Employment
Increased To Over 14 Million For The First Time In November, But Still Over 3
Million Unemployed Or Under-Employed
However, despite surging employment – up by 430,000
compared to a year ago – a massive 3.04 million Australians (19.6% of the
workforce) were unemployed or under-employed in November. ‘Real’ unemployment was down 0.2% to 9.7% - an
estimated 1,505,000 Australians (down 37,000) in November. There were more
people looking for full-time jobs (up 20,000 to 626,000) but many fewer
people looking for part-time jobs (down 57,000 to 879,000) compared to a
month ago. In addition, there were a further 1,532,000 Australians (down
45,000) now under-employed. The November Roy Morgan
Unemployment estimates were obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross
section of people aged 14+. A person is classified as unemployed if they are
looking for work, no matter when. The ‘real’ unemployment rate is presented
as a percentage of the workforce (employed & unemployed).
Australian employment
increased by 51,000 to a new record high of 14,010,000 in November. The
increase was due to a rise in part-time employment, up 52,000 to a new record
high of 5,002,000 while full-time employment was virtually unchanged at
9,008,000.
In November 1,505,000
Australians were unemployed (9.7% of
the workforce), a decrease of 37,000 from October. There were
879,000 (down 57,000) looking for part-time work but 626,000 (up 20,000) now
looking for full-time work.
The workforce in November
was 15,515,000 (up 14,000 from October, and up a massive 597,000 from a year
ago) – comprised of 14,010,000 employed Australians (up 51,000 from a month
ago) and 1,505,000 unemployed Australians looking for work (down 37,000).
In addition to the
unemployed, a further 1.53 million Australians (9.9% of the workforce) were
under-employed, i.e. working part-time but looking for more work, down 45,000
from October. In total 3.04 million Australians (19.6% of the workforce) were
either unemployed or under-employed in November. Compared
to early March 2020, before the nation-wide lockdown, in November 2023 there
were almost 900,000 more Australians either unemployed or under-employed (+4%
points) even though overall employment (14,010,000) is over 1.1 million
higher than it was pre-COVID-19 (12,872,000). ABS
Comparison Roy Morgan’s unemployment
figure of 9.7% is more than double the ABS estimate of 3.7% for October but is almost identical with the
combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 10.0%. The latest monthly figures
from the ABS indicate that the people working fewer hours in October 2023 due
to illness, injury or sick leave was 453,300. This is around 102,000 higher
than the pre-pandemic average of the six years to October 2019 (351,750) – a
difference of 101,550. If this higher than
pre-pandemic average of workers (101,550) is added to the combined ABS
unemployment and under-employment figure of 1,479,400 we find a total of
1,580,950 people could be considered unemployed or under-employed, equivalent
to 10.7% of the workforce. Roy
Morgan Unemployment & Under-employment (2019-2023) Source: Roy Morgan Single Source January 2019 – November
2023. Average monthly interviews 5,000. Michele
Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says Australian employment increased to a record high
of over 14 million in November and up 430,000 from a year ago, but there are
still over 3 million Australians unemployed or under-employed – nearly
one-fifth of the workforce: “The
latest Roy Morgan employment estimates for November show the Australian
workforce and people employed continue to grow strongly. The Australian
workforce hit a new record high over 15.5 million, over 14 million
Australians were employed for the first time and over 5 million Australians
are now in part-time employment – also a new record high. “There
are also over 3 million Australians either unemployed or under-employed for
only the fourth time this year. The latest estimates show 1,505,000
Australians were unemployed (9.7% of the workforce) and a further 1,532,000
were under-employed (9.9%) in November. “As
we have stated all year a big reason for these record highs, and continuing
high unemployment and under-employment, is the large growth in the size of
the Australian population over the last year. The increases are driven by a
record high annual population increase of 817,000 since November 2022. “This
level of increase is almost three times larger than the long-term average
over the last 25 years during which the Australian population increased on an
annual basis by an average of 278,000. “The
rapidly growing population has led to increases in employment metrics across
the board. The Australian workforce has increased by almost 600,000 from a
year ago to 15,515,000 and overall employment is up 430,000 to 14,010,000.
The employed consists of full-time employment at 9,008,000 and part-time
employment of 5,002,000. “Unfortunately,
there has also been a significant increase in labour under-utilisation over
the last year as the economy has been unable to find new jobs for all those
joining the workforce. Unemployment has increased by 167,000 and
under-employment increased by 155,000. Overall labour under-utilisation is
therefore up by 322,000 from a year ago to 3,037,000 – near post-pandemic
highs. “The
high net immigration that is powering this growth in the labour market has
kept Australia out of a recession over the last two years with the
latest ABS
quarterly GDP growth for September 2023 showed
the economy growing at only 0.2% for the quarter – less than the rate of
population growth. “However,
the swelling workforce is increasingly unable to provide the right type of
jobs for all those who need them with over 3 million Australians looking for
work or looking for more work. Tackling this continuing high level of
unemployment and under-employment must
be the number one priority for the Federal Government over the next year.” 12 December 2023 Source:
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9378-australian-unemployment-estimates-november-2023
822-825-43-24/Polls ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer
Confidence Jumps 4.4pts To 80.8 After The RBA Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged
– The Highest For Over Ten Months Since Early February 2023
Looking around the States
Consumer Confidence was up in most States including New South Wales,
Victoria, Queensland, and Western Australia, but down slightly in South
Australia. The drivers of this week’s
strong increase related to views on personal financial situations and the
Australian economy’s performance whereas buying sentiment was virtually
unchanged. Current
financial conditions
Future
financial conditions
Current
economic conditions
Future
economic conditions
Time
to buy a major household item
ANZ
Senior Economist, Adelaide Timbrell, commented: Homeowners
seem to be buoyed by rising home prices and the stable cash rate after the
RBA left the cash rate on hold last week. ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer
Confidence rose to its highest since February 2023 driven by stronger
confidence among homeowners (both indebted and outright owners). Inflation
expectations are at their second-lowest result in six months, and confidence
about the economy has improved markedly. Economic confidence about the coming
year hit its second-highest level since February and confidence about the
economy over the five-year horizon hit its best result since March. But a
large share of households still do not think it is a good time to buy a
household item, despite seasonal discounting. 12 December 2023 Source:
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9380-anz-roy-morgan-consumer-confidence-december-12 MULTICOUNTRY
STUDIES
822-825-43-25/Polls Seven
In Ten People Anticipate Climate Change Will Have A “Severe Effect” In Their
Area Within The Next Ten Years, A Survey Across 31 Nations
Key findings:
Commenting on the findings, Lauren Demar, Ipsos
Chief Sustainability Officer and Head of ESG, said: "As the world’s leaders gather at COP, this
latest Ipsos research reveals a stark reality—with the majority of people not
only witnessing the severe impacts of climate change but bracing for its
escalation. A staggering seven in ten expect climate change will profoundly
affect their local areas within the next decade. Our research underscores a critical disconnect.
There is a pervasive sentiment that both governments and businesses are not
matching the public’s concerns with equivalent levels of action and
transparency." The IMPACT of Climate
Change Almost six in ten (57%) report a severe effect of
climate change in the area where they live, but this varies greatly by
country. Reported climate change impact is highest in Mexico (81%), Brazil
(79%) and Türkiye (79%). Just two countries - Great Britain and Sweden - have
less than two-fifths of people reporting severe effects (34% and 24%
respectively). Looking across all 31 nations, it’s people in Latin America
who are particularly concerned, with six of the top ten countries being from
the region. And looking ahead, the number expecting climate
change to have a severe impact on their area over the next ten years stands
at 71% (global country average). Six countries record eight in ten believing
this – with the figure going up to nearly nine in ten (88%) in South Korea. Extending the timeline, around two-fifths (38%)
expect that they will be displaced from their home within the next 25 years,
with the highest levels of concern in Türkiye (68%) and Brazil (61%). The
least concerned countries are all European – in Great Britan, Poland, Sweden,
Germany and the Netherlands, the proportion expecting they will have to move
stands at one in four or lower. INFORMATION on Climate
Change On a global average, people don’t believe that the
information available to them is enough to help them take the right steps.
Faith in governments, businesses and the media seems to be lacking. Six in ten global citizens say that governments and
businesses in their country do not provide the right amount of information on
climate change (59% and 61% respectively). When it comes to the media, just 24% globally say
they provide good representation about the impacts, with 42% believing they
underestimate its effects and 23% saying they exaggerate what climate change
will mean. Here again, the context varies considerably by country. In Latin
America, there is quite a strong sense that the media underestimates the
impact. Meanwhile, there is a marked lack of consensus on the media’s
portrayal of climate change in India, Netherlands, Australia, Germany and the
United States. Taking ACTION on Climate
Change A little over a third (36%) of citizens globally
believe their government is working hard to tackle climate change. In 21 out
of the 31 countries, over half the population say that their government is
not working hard enough, or even doing anything at all, to fight climate
change. In Argentina, as few as 9% of citizens think their
government is working hard on the issue. People in Peru (13%) and Japan (19%)
also give their administrations low marks. Confidence in businesses’ efforts to tackle climate
change is also low, with 32% saying they work hard but 59% saying they aren’t
doing enough. Globally, 71% think that businesses use
environmental claims without committing to real change at least occasionally,
including 37% who say they do this frequently or all the time. This latter
figure rises to 48% in Britain. This being said, citizens also feel that they
themselves are not doing enough to combat climate change. Three-fifths (59%)
say people in their country are not working hard enough, or at all, with
those in LATAM particularly critical – Peru (79%), followed by Argentina
(77%) and Colombia (77%). 27 November 2023 822-825-43-26/Polls Data
Dive: Gen Z Women Are Struggling The Most With Stress, Mental Health Issues,
A Survey Across 31 Countries
Life is hard. And our recent global polling finds Generation Z women* are
finding it quite difficult to cope these days. “I’m not particularly surprised to see that young
women show lower levels of mental wellbeing as this is a consistent theme in
research that we have been conducting over the past number of years,” says
Kieran O’Leary, Director of Public Affairs for Ipsos in Ireland. Helio Gastaldi, Director of Public Affairs for Ipsos
in Brazil, concurs, noting that it’s been a pretty rough few years for young men and women. “During the pandemic
young Brazilians were hit hardest by mental health issues due to the imposed
social isolation, the impossibility of attending face-to-face classes and the
drastic reduction in employment and work possibilities, which brought greater
pressure in an already very sensitive phase in people’s lives.” Plus, young women are facing a whole extra cluster
of threats and pressures, says Lucy Neiland, Research Director of Ethnography
for Ipsos in the U.K. For example, globally one in three women
experience physical or sexual violence from an intimate
partner, or sexual violence from a non-partner, across their lifetime,
according to the World Health Organization. Perhaps Gen Z women are particularly frustrated with
this grim state of affairs as demonstrated via the high turnout at the
marches in response to the killing of Giulia Cecchettin, a 22-year-old
biomedical engineering student in Italy, Neiland says. Also, against the backdrop of austerity and the rise
in the cost of living in many countries, there seems to be a movement to
double down on more ‘traditional’ gender roles, she says. “What we are hearing is the view that women have got
their slice of the pie and now they’re encroaching into the men’s share
— things have ‘gone too far.’ So, there is a backlash
— perhaps because this is an easier narrative than unpicking the
social/political structures and rigid gender roles that have got us here.
What perhaps seems unfair to Gen Z girls and women is the assumption they
have a piece of the pie at all.” Given all of these factors it makes sense that so
many young women are hurting so much. Plus, everything from the coronavirus crisis to the
invasion of Ukraine to climate change to inflation has put people of all ages and life stages
on edge. Below, we dive deeper into how everyone, from Gen Zers to Baby
Boomers, is holding up in these tumultuous times. On the brighter side, while Gen Z and Millennial
women are currently finding things difficult, our polling shows the
proportion of women dealing with serious depression appears to trend
downwards with age. “Women are more attentive and more concerned about
health issues in general than the male population,” says Gastaldi. But, even
given the caveat that women may feel more comfortable talking about and
admitting they’re having a tough time, young women are the most likely
demographic in Brazil to report struggling, with almost three in five (58%)
Brazilian Gen Z women and close to half (48%) of Brazilian Gen Z men
reporting being severely depressed to the point they felt sad/hopeless almost
every day for a couple of weeks or more. On the brighter side, while Gen Z and Millennial
women are currently finding things difficult, our polling shows the
proportion of women dealing with serious depression appears to trend
downwards with age. “Women are more attentive and more concerned about
health issues in general than the male population,” says Gastaldi. But, even
given the caveat that women may feel more comfortable talking about and
admitting they’re having a tough time, young women are the most likely
demographic in Brazil to report struggling, with almost three in five (58%)
Brazilian Gen Z women and close to half (48%) of Brazilian Gen Z men
reporting being severely depressed to the point they felt sad/hopeless almost
every day for a couple of weeks or more.
This lines up with what O’Leary is
seeing in Ireland, where 58% of Gen Z females and 40% of Gen Z males said
they feel so stressed they felt like they couldn’t cope. “Our ongoing Healthy Ireland Survey measures mental
wellbeing and finds that young women are almost twice as likely to indicate
having a probable mental health problem when compared to the population as a
whole,” he says. “This is likely reflective of the broader pressures
on this cohort today, with many leaving education facing into an uncertain
economy and with societal problems such as housing unaffordability impacting
them more severely than other groups.” Ipsos polling around the world finds this is an
issue far beyond Ireland, with Gen Z women, on average across 31 countries,
the most likely demographic to report feeling so stressed that they felt like
they couldn’t cope/deal with things.
On the brighter side, while Gen Z
and Millennial women are currently finding things difficult, our polling
shows the proportion of women dealing with serious depression appears to
trend downwards with age. “Women are more attentive and more concerned about
health issues in general than the male population,” says Gastaldi. But, even
given the caveat that women may feel more comfortable talking about and
admitting they’re having a tough time, young women are the most likely
demographic in Brazil to report struggling, with almost three in five (58%)
Brazilian Gen Z women and close to half (48%) of Brazilian Gen Z men
reporting being severely depressed to the point they felt sad/hopeless almost
every day for a couple of weeks or more.
While it can be difficult for
someone in the depths of darkness to believe things will eventually get
better our polling finds the proportion of women reporting thoughts of
self-hurt/suicide is much lower among Generation Xers and Boomers.
And that’s reflected in our polling
this year, with Ipsos’ 2023 Global Health Monitor finding mental health is now
considered the top health concern, on average across 31 countries, followed
by cancer then stress. People around the world now seem to consider both
physical and emotional wellbeing to be key to overall health. That’s a shift
Gastaldi’s seen happen in Brazil, where 52% of people think mental health is
a top health concern for their country (eight percentage points higher than
the global average of 44%). The onset of the global pandemic in early 2020 led
to a “growing interest in Brazilian society in discussing mental health more
openly, with the support of experts and personalities in general. This has
greatly contributed to a process of demystification of the topic, which
historically was treated in a very discreet, and even prejudiced, manner. “Although there is still a stigma attached to this
topic in society, we can now see fewer delays in diagnoses and more
appropriate application of treatments.” While there’s consensus across the generations in
Brazil and beyond that being of sound mind and body is equally important,
many say healthcare providers don’t seem to also hold that view. While there’s been strides in more openly talking
about mental health, even in 2023 young women may still be facing
old-fashioned prejudices. Neiland points out women from all generations have
long faced significant barriers, stigma and discrimination when seeking care
for both physical and mental health concerns. “In the hysterical health work we did one can see this long
legacy of dismissing women is still there. ” *Generation Z (born
between 1996-2012), Millennials (born between 1980-1995), Generation X (born
between 1966-1979) and Baby Boomers (born between 1945-1965. 05 December 2023 Source:
https://www.ipsos.com/en/data-dive-gen-z-women-are-struggling-most-stress-mental-health-issues 822-825-43-27/Polls In
East Asia, Many People See China’s Power And Influence As A Major Threat, A
Survey In Five Asian Nations
In parts of East Asia, roughly half of adults or
more view China’s power and influence as a major threat, according to a Pew
Research Center survey conducted between June and September 2023. In South Korea and Japan, though, North Korea’s
nuclear weapons program is also a top concern. Most Japanese adults also see
Russia’s power and influence as a major threat – though fewer than half of
adults in the other places surveyed agree. China’s power and
influence In Japan, 76% of adults consider China a major
threat. This is comparable to the share (74%) who said the same in
2013, amid flare-ups in the East China Sea, and higher than the share (69%) who said
this toward the end of the last decade. In comparison, 64% of South Koreans consider China a
major threat, but they are less likely now than they were in 2013 (76%) to
say this. (Comparable trend data is not available in Hong Kong or Taiwan.) Related: China’s Approach to Foreign Policy Gets Largely
Negative Reviews in 24-Country Survey Views of China as a threat differ
by educational attainment, age and party affiliation:
North Korea’s nuclear
weapons program Majorities in Japan and South Korea say North
Korea’s nuclear weapons program is a major threat to their country.
Significantly smaller shares in Taiwan and Hong Kong say the same. Still,
most people in all four places call North Korea’s nuclear capabilities at
least a minor threat. For Japan and South Korea, these shares are largely
unchanged since 2018, when the question was
last asked amid then-President Donald Trump’s summit with North
Korean leader Kim Jong Un. But the shares are slightly lower than they were
in 2013, when the question was first asked. In some places surveyed, opinions vary across some
demographic groups:
U.S. power and influence Most East Asian adults surveyed see the United
States’ power and influence as a threat to them. That includes 53% of
Japanese adults who say the U.S. poses a major threat to their country. In both Taiwan and South Korea, 45% say the U.S.
poses a major threat and roughly a quarter call it a minor threat. Adults in Hong Kong are the least likely to call the
U.S. a major threat (37%) but the most likely to call it a minor threat. In South Korea and Japan, the shares calling the
United States’ power and influence a major threat have fallen by 22 and 13
percentage points, respectively, since 2018. This aligns with a significant
jump in confidence that the U.S. president will do the right thing
regarding world affairs between Trump’s time in office and Joe Biden’s
presidency. Related: International Views of Biden and U.S. Largely
Positive In certain places, gender,
education and party are all related to these opinions:
Russia’s power and
influence Many adults view Russia’s power and influence as a
threat, but to a lesser degree than the power and influence of China or the
U.S. Japanese adults are the most concerned by Russia’s influence, with about
seven-in-ten (71%) labeling it as a major threat. In comparison, no more than four-in-ten in South
Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong view Russia as a major threat. People in those
three places are much more likely than Japanese to label Russia a minor threat instead. At least a
quarter of adults in Taiwan and Hong Kong dismiss Russia’s power and
influence as a threat entirely. In Japan, the share labeling Russia’s power and
influence as a major threat has grown substantially since 2017, rising 28
percentage points. Related: Large Shares See Russia and Putin in Negative
Light, While Views of Zelenskyy More Mixed Across the four places, views of
Russia’s power and influence do not differ greatly by political affiliation,
but they do vary somewhat by educational attainment and gender:
05 December 2023 822-825-43-28/Polls Global
Attitudes On An Interconnected World, A Survey Across 24 Nations
How close do people feel to others around the world?
How much do they want their countries involved in international affairs? How
do people’s experiences with travel and feelings of international
connectedness relate to their views about the world? These are among the questions we explored in a
recent 24-nation survey. We found that while most respondents feel close to
people in their countries and their local communities, they are more divided
over how close they feel to others across the globe. International travel experience also varies greatly
across the nations in the study, and it is strongly correlated with
per-capita gross domestic product. In the Netherlands, Sweden and the United
Kingdom, more than four-in-ten have traveled to 10 or more countries. While about
three-in-four Americans have traveled abroad, only 11% have been to 10 or
more nations. In middle-income nations in Africa, Latin America
and Asia, majorities have never left their country. However, most of those
who have not traveled internationally say they would if they had the
opportunity. Travel experience, feelings of connectedness to
others around the world, and views about your country’s role in world affairs
are often related to one another, our survey found. International travelers
are more likely to report feeling close to people in other countries. And
those who travel and feel close to others around the world tend to believe
their countries should be involved in global politics. For this report, we surveyed people in 24 countries
on:
The survey was conducted from Feb. 20 to May 22,
2023, among 30,861 people in 24 countries. Feeling connected to
others A median of 83% across 24 countries say they feel
close to people in their country. Majorities in every nation surveyed
expressed this view, although the U.S.
has one of the smallest shares who feel close to others in their country –
66% say this, and only 15% say they feel very close to other Americans (also the lowest share
of any nation in the study). A median of 78% feel close to people in their local
community, while 21% do not. At least
half in every country feel close to those in their local community. South
Koreans (50%), Americans (54%), Argentines (57%) and Germans (57%) are the
least likely to hold this view. Views of global interconnectedness are mixed: A
median of 50% say they feel close to people all over the world, while 46% do
not feel close to the global community. While most in Europe feel close to people all over the world, this view
is less common in other regions surveyed. Roughly half or
more feel this way in each of the 10 European nations polled, but Canada,
India, Japan and Kenya are the only other countries where at least half share
this view. About a third or fewer in Argentina, Indonesia, Israel and the
U.S. feel close to others around the world. For more on how close people feel to others around
the world, in their country and in their community, read Chapter
1 of this report. International engagement Respondents were asked to choose between the
following two viewpoints: “Our country should pay less attention to problems
in other countries and concentrate on problems here at home” or “It’s best
for the future of our country to be active in world affairs.” The prevailing view in most nations surveyed is that
their country needs to concentrate on problems at home: A
median of 55% across 24 countries express this view. Publics in Africa and
Latin America are especially likely to express this opinion. But in six
nations, at least half say it’s best to be active in world affairs:
Australia, Germany, Japan, South Korea, Sweden and the UK. The share of Americans who
believe the U.S. should be active in world affairs has declined in recent
years. Just
43% hold this view today, compared with 53% in September 2019. Respondents were also asked whether
their country should follow its own interests even when other countries
strongly disagree, or take into account other countries’ interests even if
that means making compromises. Overall, publics are roughly divided: A median of 49% say their country should follow its
own interests, while 47% say they should consider the interests of others. The
African and Latin American nations in the study are particularly likely to
favor pursuing their own interests compared with other regions. For more detail on views about international
engagement, see Chapter
2 of this report. International travel European nations report especially high levels of international
travel. (These nations have relatively high incomes, a
relatively large number of neighboring countries and a right to free movement
within the European Union.) Australians and Canadians are also more likely
than others to have traveled to at least one country outside their own. A country’s gross domestic
product per capita is strongly linked to the share of the public who have
traveled abroad. But while the U.S. has the
highest GDP per capita of any country surveyed, several other nations have
higher levels of international travel. International travel is
also linked to attitudes about international connectedness. Those
who have traveled abroad are more likely to feel connected to others around
the world, believe their country should be active in global affairs, and
think their country should consider the interests of other nations even if it
means making compromises. For more on views about
international engagement, see Chapter
3 of this report. Ideology and
interconnectedness In many nations, people on the ideological left are particularly inclined to say their
country should be active in world affairs. Those on the left
also tend to believe their country should consider the interests of other
nations even if it means making compromises. This ideological gap is
largest in the United States, where it has
increased substantially over the past few years. Since 2019, about two-thirds
of American liberals have consistently said they favor taking an active role
in world affairs. But the share of conservatives who hold this view has
declined significantly, and it has also declined among those who describe
themselves as moderates. Ideology is also linked to
how close people feel to others across the globe and in their countries. In
several nations, respondents on the left are especially likely to feel close
to others around the world. The opposite is true for closeness to people
in your own country –
in several countries, this view is more common on the ideological right. 06 December 2023 Source:
https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2023/12/06/attitudes-on-an-interconnected-world/ 822-825-43-29/Polls How
The Israel-Hamas War In Gaza Is Changing Arab Views
As many analysts have already declared, the high
costs in Gaza have reverberated around the Arab world, reaffirming the
salience and power of the Israeli-Palestinian
conflict in shaping regional politics. Yet it has been difficult to
say exactly how much the attack has affected Arab attitudes—and in what
particular ways. Now, that is changing. In the weeks leading up to
the attack and the three weeks that followed, our nonpartisan research firm,
Arab Barometer, conducted a nationally representative survey in Tunisia in
conjunction with our local partner, One to One for Research and Polling. By
chance, about half the 2,406 interviews were completed in the three weeks
before October 7, and the remaining half occurred in the three weeks after.
As a result, a comparison of the results can show—with unusual precision—how
the attack and subsequent Israeli military campaign have changed views among
Arabs. Stay informed. The findings are striking. U.S. President Joe Biden recently
warned that Israel was losing global support over Gaza, but that is only the
tip of the iceberg. Since October 7, every country in the survey with
positive or warming relations with Israel saw its favorability ratings
decline among Tunisians. The United States saw the steepest drop, but
Washington’s Middle East allies that have forged ties to Israel over the last
few years also saw their approval numbers go down. States that have stayed
neutral, meanwhile, experienced little shift. And the leadership of Iran,
which is ardently opposed to Israel, saw its favorability figures rise. Three
weeks after the attacks, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has approval
ratings that matched or even exceeded those of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed
bin Salman, known as MBS, and Emirati President Mohammed bin Zayed, known as
MBZ. Tunisia is but one country in the Middle East and
North Africa, a region of vast differences, and this survey cannot tell
experts everything about how people throughout the region think and feel. But
Tunisia is about as close to a bellwether as one could imagine. In previous
Arab Barometer surveys, Tunisians have had views similar to those found in
most other Arab countries. The population is open to the West but is also
open to other global powers, such as China and Russia. It is geographically
removed from the immediate effects of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but
it has a history of direct involvement, including once housing the Palestine
Liberation Organization. Analysts and officials can safely assume that
people’s views elsewhere in the region have shifted in ways similar to the
recent changes that have taken place in Tunisia. Those shifts have been dramatic: rarely are changes
of this magnitude seen in the course of a few weeks. But that does not
indicate knee-jerk reactions on the part of Tunisians. If Tunisia’s people
were changing their views simply because they supported Hamas’s actions, a
major shift would have occurred within a day of the attack and then
Tunisians’ opinions would have quickly stabilized. Instead, their opinions
moved little by little on a daily basis over a three-week period, but
significantly over the whole period. As a result, it is most likely that
Tunisians’ views shifted not in response to Hamas’s attack but to the
subsequent events, namely, the increasing cost to civilians of Israel’s
military operation in Gaza. Still, the war has certainly increased Tunisians’
support for Palestinian fighting. Compared with surveys taken before
the October
7 attack, far more Tunisians today want the Palestinians to resolve their
conflict with Israel via force rather than with a peaceful settlement. Public opinion matters even in nondemocracies, where
leaders must worry about protests, and these shifting views will reshape
politics in the Arab world—as well as around the globe. The United States and
its regional allies will have great difficulty expanding the Abraham Accords,
which normalized ties between several Arab states and Israel. Washington may
also lose the advantage in its contest with a rising China and a resurgent
Russia. The United States could even find that many long-standing allies such
as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates become less friendly toward the
United States and more receptive toward its rivals as they seek to stave off
their own regional declines. Since the attack, for example, both countries
have welcomed Russian President Vladimir Putin for
his first visit to the region since the invasion of Ukraine. The growing support for armed resistance could also
have dangerous consequences. The war against Hamas has not yet
led to a wider conflict, but Israel has had to fend off strikes from
Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Middle East and North Africa overall are prone
to instability. It is not hard to imagine how the current invasion could
spiral or open the door to a future conflict. To stabilize the region, Israel
and its allies must, therefore, find a way to end this war and then pivot,
quickly, to peacefully resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. ROCK BOTTOM Arab Barometer, our academic research project, was
in the process of conducting a wide-ranging issues survey with a random
sample of Tunisia’s residents when Hamas attacked Israel on October 7. We
decided to use this timing to investigate how this event and the war that
followed affected public opinion. Since we did not expect significant changes
in the views of Tunisians before October 7, we first took the average opinion
for the initial three weeks of fieldwork. We then looked at how public
opinion changed in the weeks that followed. Since the sample size is
relatively small on each given day of our post–October 7 analysis, we made
our estimates of how people felt at any given time using three-day moving
averages of public opinion. This means that each data point represents an
estimate on the day of the survey and the two days prior. (Although the last
day of fielding was November 4, October 27 was the last day enough daily
interviews were collected to provide sufficient data for meaningful
analysis.) After plotting this moving average, we calculated a
best-fit line for interviews conducted before and after October 7 to
understand what changes, if any, resulted for each question. This line helped
show how Tunisians’ views shifted in real time. Our ultimate estimates for
the change in public opinion, however, focused on two numbers. The first is
the average view of Tunisians before October 7. The second is the level of
support based on the average from the best-fit line for October 27. There were many shifts. Yet the largest had to do
with perceptions of the United States. In the 1,146 interviews carried out
before the October 7 attack, 40 percent of Tunisians had a positive or
somewhat positive view of the United States, compared with 56 percent who had
an unfavorable opinion. But after the war in Gaza began, that quickly
changed. By the end of our fieldwork, only ten percent of Tunisians had a
positive view of the United States.
Eighty-seven percent, by contrast, had an unfavorable impression. Before
October 7, 56 percent of Tunisians wanted closer economic relations with the
United States. Three weeks later, that number had fallen to 34 percent. Biden
was never particularly popular in Tunisia, with an approval rating of 29
percent before October 7. But after Israel began its campaign—and Biden
declared there were “no conditions” on U.S. support—his favorability rating
fell to just six points. Correlation, of course, does not mean causation. But
in this case, it is hard to see an alternative explanation, particularly
given the steady, daily shift in Tunisian opinion. The war was by far the
biggest news event that took place during the survey, and other responses
made it clear that Tunisians were thinking about the Israeli-Palestinian
conflict as they evaluated the United States. When Tunisians were asked which
U.S. policies are most important to them in the Middle East and North Africa,
resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict rose dramatically after October
7—from 24 percent to 59 percent. By comparison, the number of Tunisians who
answered “economic development” fell from 20 percent to four percent. So far, worsening opinions about the United States
have not directly translated into gains for China and
Russia, both of which have stayed neutral in the war. Before the Hamas
attack, 70 percent of Tunisians had a positive view of China; by October 27,
that figure had increased by a modest five points. The number of people who
wanted warmer economic relations with China dipped from 80 percent to 78
percent, within the margin of error. Before the attack, 56 percent of
Tunisians held a favorable view of Russia compared with 53 percent at the end
of our research. The share of people who wanted closer economic ties to
Moscow went from 72 percent to 75 percent. But there are signs that China, at least, could win
greater support at the expense of the United States. When asked before
October 7 whether Beijing or Washington had better policies toward the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict, a third of Tunisians preferred China’s policies
to the United States’. By the end of our polling, this figure had risen to 50
percent. (The share of Tunisians preferring U.S. policy went from 13 percent
to 14 percent.) When asked whether China or the United States had better
policies for maintaining regional security, the results were similar. Before
October 7, the number of people who preferred Chinese policy rose from 31
percent to 50 percent. The percentage of Tunisians who preferred U.S. policy
fell from 19 percent to 12 percent. GUILT BY ASSOCIATION Great powers are not the only states that Tunisians
now view differently. The population’s attitude toward a number of regional
powers also shifted after October 7. Much like shifts in opinion toward
Washington, the changes largely track with how these states treat Israel. Consider, for example, Saudi Arabia.
In the period leading up to the attack, there was widespread speculation that
Riyadh would normalize relations with Israel. As anger at Israel built among
Tunisians in the weeks following October 7, their views of Saudi Arabia also
darkened—with the country’s approval rating dropping from 73 percent to 59
percent. Similarly, the percentage of Tunisians who wanted closer economic
relations with Saudi Arabia fell from an average of 71 percent to 61 percent.
MBS’s approval rating declined from 55 percent before the attack to 40
percent by October 27. These changes are especially notable given that
Tunisian President Kais Saied, who enjoys high approval ratings at home, has
very close links with MBS. The questionnaire did not include direct queries
about the United Arab Emirates, which normalized ties with Israel in August
2020. But it did ask about MBZ’s foreign policies, and the results proved
very similar to those for MBS. Before the October 7 attack, MBZ’s policies
were seen favorably by 49 percent of Tunisians. By the end of the fieldwork,
that figure had dropped to a third. Views of Turkey, by contrast, were largely
unchanged. Ankara has long sought to highlight and empathize with the plight
of the Palestinians, albeit from the sidelines, and 68 percent of Tunisians
had a positive view of Turkey both before and after the attack. Views of
Turkish President Recep Tayyip
Erdogan’s foreign policy declined from 54 percent to 47 percent, but the
number of people who wanted a closer economic relationship with the country
increased, going from 57 percent to 64 percent. Still, the war in Gaza did not seem to improve the
views of Turkey among Tunisians, perhaps because its condemnation of Israel
was relatively constrained. But one country’s leadership did seem to benefit:
that of Iran. The Islamic Republic is ardently opposed to Israel’s existence,
and it cheered on Hamas’s attack. In an appeal that surely resonated with
Arab public opinion, on October 17, Khamenei called for an end to the bombing
of Gaza and labeled Israel’s actions a “genocide.” Although the survey did not
include views toward Iran itself, it did ask about the foreign policies of
Khamenei, and approval clearly went up. Before the attack, just 29 percent of
Tunisians held a favorable view of his foreign policies. At the end of our
fieldwork, this figure had risen to 41 percent. The jump in support was most
notable in the days following Khamenei’s October 17 statement. And then there is Israel itself. Even before the
attack, Tunisians had an extremely unfavorable view of Israel—just five
percent of people rated the country positively. As a result, the country’s
decline to effectively zero percent was not much of a fall at all. But
opinions about normalization did shift. Normalizing ties with Israel was
never popular, yet after the attack, what little support there was had completely
dissipated. On October 7, 12 percent of people supported normalization. By
October 27, that figure hit just one percent. Views of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict also
changed in important ways. Before October 7, when asked about their preferred
means of solving the conflict, 66 percent of Tunisians favored a two-state
solution based on the 1967 borders, whereas 18 percent favored an alternative
diplomatic path, such as a single state with equal rights for all or a
confederation. Just six percent of Tunisians chose “other,” the vast majority
of whom proposed armed resistance to Israel’s occupation, possibly entailing
the elimination of the state of Israel. But by the end of our fieldwork, only
50 percent of Tunisians supported the two-state solution. Those in favor of a
one-state solution or a confederation fell by seven points combined. The
biggest gain was the “other” category, which increased by 30 points to 36
percent. Once again, the vast majority of these Tunisians wanted continued,
armed resistance. BREAK THE CYCLE Tunisia is geographically remote from Israel, and
its population’s growing appetite for an armed resistance is unlikely to
directly affect the war. But if other Arab states have had similar shifts in
opinion, fighting on Israel’s borders could flare further. And in all
likelihood, anger at Israel has grown even more in countries closer to the
conflict or in those housing more Palestinian refugees, such as Jordan and
Lebanon. The potential for greater violence is, therefore, serious. The
Middle East and North Africa, after all, are plagued by more ongoing
conflicts than any other part of the world. As the bombardment of Gaza continues, this risk will
only grow. In fact, even after the fighting ends, the region may remain more
precarious. A new generation has now seen the horrors of the occupation on
television and on social media, including tragic images of dead bodies and
anguished families that they are unlikely to forget. Some percentage of them
may choose to fund, join, or otherwise help armed groups fighting against
Israel’s existence. The country’s politicians may think this war will make them
safer, but Israel’s security will not increase because of the conflict. The simple fact is that the Palestinian cause
remains vitally important to the Arab world, and Israel cannot hope to simply
defeat it with bombs. This issue has not lost its salience to a new
generation. Despite what many Western (and some Arab) capitals may have
assumed, Israel will not be able to make peace with its neighbors as long as
the Palestinians do not have a state. In just 20 days, Tunisians’ views on
the world shifted in ways that rarely happen even over the course of a few
years. There is no other issue across the Arab world to which people feel so
individually and emotionally connected. This intensity is particularly striking given
Tunisia’s domestic challenges. The state now has a GDP per capita that is
lower than it was before the country’s 2010 revolution. And yet Tunisians
still wanted less economic engagement with the United States. According to
our data, by October 27, Tunisians preferred international engagement on the
Palestinian cause over economic development by an enormous margin—59 percent
to four percent. If Israel and the United States seek genuine peace
with the Arab world—rather than a cold peace with the repressive regimes that
rule most of it—they must change their policies. They need to find a way to
end the ongoing struggle between the Israelis and the Palestinians. And that
means all these groups must diligently work toward a fair and dignified
future for the Palestinian people: specifically, a two-state solution. It is
the only way to change the hearts and minds of neighboring populations and bring
an end to the cycle of violence that has plagued the Middle East for the last
century. 14 December 2023 |