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BUSINESS & POLITICS IN THE WORLD
GLOBAL OPINION REPORT NO. 780
Week: January 30
– February 05, 2023
Presentation:
February 10, 2023
Upgrades Eyed For Heatstroke Alerts, Public ‘Cooling
Facilities’
Nigerians Want Competitive Elections But Don’t Trust The
Electoral Commission.
Ethiopians Grim After Two Years Of War
British Streaming Market Shows Signs Of Recovery After A
Turbulent Year
Three Years On And 45% Say Brexit Is Going Worse Than Expected
Two In Three Britons Think The Worst Of The Cost-Of-Living
Crisis Is Still To Come
100 Days In, Rishi Sunak’s Ratings Are Lacklustre And He Has
Failed To Salvage The Tory Brand
Seven In Ten Britons Still Have A Negative View Of Politics
Germans Rather Careless With Their Passwords
The Travel Market In Italy Resumes Running Driven By The
Online
Anti-Immigration Sentiment Bubbling Up To Become A Major
Political Issue In Ireland
As Russian Invasion Nears One-Year Mark, Partisans Grow
Further Apart On U.S. Support For Ukraine
Americans' Dissatisfaction With Nation Eases, But Still High
Americans Still Glum About State Of The Union In Most Areas
Sports Gambling Growth Driven By Small Group Of Highly Engaged
Sports Fans
How Safe Do Women Feel In The Bogata
ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Up 9.6pts To
83.4 In January
NSW Voting Intention: ALP Increased Their Lead Over The L-NP
To End 2022: ALP 55% Cf. L-NP 45%
Support For A Two-State Solution Among Palestinians And
Israelis Declines
Africans Want Age Limits For Government Heads, A Survey Among
34 African Nations
INTRODUCTORY NOTE
This weekly report consists of
twenty-one surveys. The report
includes two multi-country studies from different states across
the globe.
780-43-22/Commentary:
Africans Want Age Limits For Government Heads, A Survey Among 34
African Nations
Over the years,
some policy actors have blamed aspects of African countries’
development challenges on the advanced ages of their leaders,
though no theory or empirical evidence establishes such a
relationship (Anoba, 2018; Sackey, 2021). The elections of
Emmanuel Macron as president of France at age 39 (2017),
Sebastian Kurz as chancellor of Austria at age 31 (2017), and
Nayib Bukele as president of El Salvador at age 37 (2019) led
some democracy watchers to wonder when Africa – the world’s
youngest continent, with under35s making up about two-thirds of
the population – will produce youthful presidents (Alim, 2019;
Phekani, 2019). In all but one (Ethiopia) of the 28 African
countries that chose presidents or prime ministers during the
period 2018-2021, the winners were more than 50 years old (see
Table A.2 in the Appendix for details). In 19 countries, the
winners were above age 60, despite the participation of 27
under-50 candidates in those countries. As Nigeria prepares for
elections in February 2023, the National Youths Union of Nigeria
has reignited this discussion by calling on citizens to elect a
president who is less than 60 years of age (Sahara Reporters,
2022). The 2019/2021 Afrobarometer Round 8 survey in 34
countries asked Africans whether they think their countries
should have minimum and maximum age limits for heads of
government, and if so, what these limits should be. Findings
show that most Africans favour both minimum and maximum age
limits for their leaders, though their views on what those
limits should be vary greatly. Comparing the ages of incumbent
leaders to citizens’ proposed age limits and to countries’
official retirement ages, we find that heads of government have
exceeded average citizens’ maximum age limits in 15 of 34
countries, and have exceeded official retirement age in 23
countries. But citizens in 27 countries also tend to propose age
limits for heads of state that exceed the official retirement
age, suggesting that they aren’t opposed to retirement-age
leaders.
Key findings
§
On average across 34 countries, three-quarters (76%) of Africans
are in favour of a maximum age limit for heads of government.
About the same percentage (74%) support minimum age limits for
these chief public servants. o Maximum age limits have majority
support in all surveyed countries, exceeding nine out of 10
citizens in Mali (95%), Benin (94%), and Senegal (90%).
§ Citizens’ views on what the minimum and maximum
age limits should be vary widely. o For a minimum age limit, the
mean across 34 countries is 39 years, ranging from a low of 34
years in Morocco to a high of 42 years in Ghana, Guinea,
Namibia, and Tanzania. The modal (most frequently cited)
proposed minimum across 34 countries is 40 years, ranging from
30 years in the Gambia and Morocco to 40 years in 29 out of the
34 countries. o For a maximum age limit, the mean across 34
countries is 66 years, ranging from 58 years in Morocco to 72
years in Zimbabwe. The modal maximum age is 70 across the 34
countries.
§ Compared against the mean and modal
minimum age limits proposed by survey respondents, the heads of
governments in all 34 countries were old enough to qualify for
the office. However, assessed against the mean maximum age
limits proposed by citizens, heads of government in 15 countries
were too old at the time of the survey to occupy their
positions.
§ The ages of incumbent heads of government
at the time of the survey exceeded their countries’ official
retirement ages in 23 of the 34 surveyed countries.
§
However, the mean maximum age limits proposed by citizens were
higher than the official retirement age in 27 countries,
suggesting that despite strong support for age limits, many
citizens are quite generous with respect to how old their heads
of government can be. Do Africans support age limits for heads
of government2? Among the 34 countries that Afrobarometer
surveyed in 2019/2021, 28 have constitutional provisions for a
minimum age for presidents or prime ministers.3 In contrast,
only two set a maximum age limit, while incumbents in two other
countries, with the support of the legislatures, have managed to
abolish age limits to allow them to seek additional terms.4 When
citizens are asked directly, three-fourths of them say they
think their constitutions should provide for both minimum age
limits (74% on average across 34 countries) and maximum age
limits (75%) for their heads of government (Figure 1).
Support for both
types of age limits exceeds nine out of 10 citizens in Mali and
Benin. It is weakest in Morocco and Eswatini, but even there
half or more of all adults favour these limits. Countries
expressing strong support for minimum age limits tend to do the
same for maximum age limits. Eswatini and Lesotho are unusual in
that in both countries, maximum age limits are 11 percentage
points more popular than minimum age limits. Support for both
types of age limits is strong across key demographic groups
(Figure 2).
What should the
age limits be? When respondents who favour minimum and maximum
age limits for presidents or prime ministers are asked what they
think those limits should be, they offer a wide range of
suggestions. One way to examine the results is to look at the
proportions of respondents who favour certain age limits (Figure
3). For minimum age limits, 40 years is the most popular or
modal choice (20%), followed by 35 (11%), 30 (11%), 50 (9%), and
45 (8%). For a maximum, 70 years gets the most votes (i.e. is
the modal value) (18%), followed by 60 (16%) and a variety of
ages under 60 (15%). About one in 10 respondents who favour a
maximum age limit suggest it be set at 80 years (9%).
All countries
record a modal minimum age of 40 except Uganda, Kenya, and
Cameroon, which has a modal minimum age of 35, and Morocco and
the Gambia, with a modal minimum age of 30 (Figure 4). For the
maximum age, 21 countries record 70 years as the most common
response, while 60 years is the most common response in 11
countries.
Another way to
summarise citizens’ preferences with regard to a maximum age
limit is to look at what proportion is likely to endorse a given
age as a maximum limit (Figure 5). This assumes that a person
who supports a given maximum limit (e.g. 60 years) would also
endorse a higher maximum (e.g. 75 years) as preferable to having
no maximum at all. Thus, on average across 34 countries, while
only 31% would set the maximum limit at 60 years, a majority
(57%) would endorse a limit of 70 years.
Similarly, we
can consider what proportion think a given age is too young to
head a government. As shown in Figure 6, 73% of respondents
would set the minimum age at 18 years or higher, and a majority
(54%) would insist that a head of government be at least 35
years old. But only one in five (21%) would set the minimum age
at 45 years or higher.
Finally, a third
way to interpret the findings is to calculate mean minimum and
maximum ages for each country (Figure 7). The mean age is the
average of all the ages suggested by all respondents (excluding
those who did not want a minimum or maximum age, respectively).
The mean
(average) preferred minimum age across 34 countries is 39 years,
very similar to the modal (most popular) minimum age of 40
years. The means of citizens’ proposed minimum age limits range
from a low of 34 years in Morocco to a high of 42 years in
Ghana, Guinea, Tanzania, and Namibia. The mean proposed minimum
ages exceed 40 years in just seven countries. Across the 34
countries, the mean maximum age is 66 years. The mean maximums
range from 58 years in Morocco to 72 years in Zimbabwe, with
only six countries averaging 70 years or above. What proposed
age limits imply for each country’s current leadership To
examine what these proposed minimum and maximum ages would mean
for current heads of government, we compare them to each
leader’s age at the time of the Afrobarometer Round 8 survey. As
we can see in Figure 8, the leader’s age exceeded the mean
proposed minimum age in every country; the differences in years
are detailed in Figure 9. For instance, President Paul Biya of
Cameroon (the oldest) was 51 years older at the time of the
survey than the country’s mean minimum age limit for a
president, while Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali (the
youngest) was 8 years older. Thus, considered against the mean
minimum age limits suggested by citizens, all current heads of
governments in the 34 countries would be old enough to qualify
to occupy their positions. Heads of government are, however,
older than the preferred maximum age in 15 countries, by margins
ranging from one year (for President Ali Bongo Ondimba of Gabon)
to 22 years (for President Biya of Cameroon) (Figure 10).
Does support for
maximum age limits signal rejection of gerontocracy? We have
established strong public support for instituting maximum age
limits for heads of government and seen that 15 incumbents had
surpassed the mean preferred maximum at the time of the Round 8
surveys. Do these findings signal that Africans reject
gerontocracy? We explore this question by comparing countries’
mean preferred maximum age limits and incumbents’ ages at the
time of the survey to the countries’ mandatory ages of
retirement from active public service,5 as displayed in Figure
11.
At the time of
our surveys, 23 heads of government were older than their
country’s official retirement age. Margins range from one year
(for Ali Bongo of Gabon, Julius Maada Bio of Sierra Leone, and
the late John Magufuli of Tanzania) to 28 years for Cameroon’s
Biya (Figure 12).
Significantly,
in 27 countries, the mean proposed maximum age limits for heads
of government are higher than the official retirement ages.
Differences range from one year in Angola to 28 years in
Cameroon (Figure 13). In only five countries do the official
retirement
ages exceed the
average preferred maximum age limits for heads of government –
Lesotho, Morocco, Sudan, Ethiopia, and South Africa. These
findings indicate that citizens are quite generous with their
proposed maximum age limits. Africans’ support for age limits
for heads of government does not appear to signal a rejection of
older leaders.
Conclusion
Survey findings show that a large majority of Africans in 34
countries support the institution of minimum and maximum age
limits for heads of government, though their suggested age
limits vary widely. In most countries, the mean preferred
maximum age is higher than the country’s official retirement
age, suggesting that people are willing to let their heads of
government serve until an older age – but not indefinitely.
(Afrobarometer)
1 February 2023
SUMMARY OF POLLS
ASIA
(Japan)
Upgrades Eyed For Heatstroke
Alerts, Public ‘Cooling Facilities’
The central
government is planning legal revisions that will upgrade the
special alert system for heatstroke and promote the use of
public “cooling facilities” during extremely hot weather. The
Japan Meteorological Agency said the number of extremely hot
days—when temperatures hit 35 degrees or higher--has increased
notably since the 1990s. For three consecutive years from 2018,
the number of people who died from heatstroke in Japan exceeded
1,000. According to an Environment Ministry survey conducted
last year, 125, or 21 percent, of the 592 responding
municipalities said they have such cooling facilities.
(Asahi Shimbun)
February 2, 2023
AFRICA
(Nigeria)
Nigerians Want Competitive
Elections But Don’t Trust The Electoral Commission.
A majority of
Nigerians believe that elections are the best method to choose
their leaders, according to the latest Afrobarometer survey. But
as they approach their presidential election in February, fewer
than one-fourth of citizens say they trust the Independent
National Electoral Commission (INEC). Most Nigerians (71%)
support elections as the best way to choose their leaders. A
similarly clear majority (69%) say Nigeria needs many political
parties to ensure that voters have a real choice, a
13-percentage-point rebound from 2020.
(NOI Polls)
February 3, 2023
(Ethiopia)
Ethiopians Grim After Two
Years Of War
The war between
Ethiopian and Tigrayan forces may have ended, but the struggle
is far from over for most Ethiopians. Battered by two years of
war, COVID-19 and rising food costs, Ethiopians surveyed at the
tail end of the war in 2022 found themselves in the grimmest
situation in more than a decade. When asked to rate their lives
today on a scale of 0 to 10, Ethiopians' average rating dropped
from 4.5 in 2020 to just 3.6 today, the lowest rating since
Gallup began tracking this metric in Ethiopia in 2012. This is
well below the 2021 average worldwide (5.3) as well as in
sub-Saharan Africa (4.5).
(Gallup)
FEBRUARY 2, 2023
WEST EUROPE
(UK)
British Streaming Market
Shows Signs Of Recovery After A Turbulent Year
Between
September to December 2022, the number of VoD-enabled households
that subscribed to at least one video streaming service in Great
Britain rose to 16.24 million, up +55k, quarter on quarter,
representing 56% of households. 5% of British households took
out a new streaming subscription during the final quarter of the
year, down from 6% a year earlier. Apple TV+ saw its
highest-ever subscriber satisfaction score for ‘quality of the
shows’, beating out Netflix and Disney.
(Kantar)
30 January 2023
Three Years On And 45% Say
Brexit Is Going Worse Than Expected
A new poll by
Ipsos, conducted three years on since Britain formally left the
European Union, finds 45% think that Brexit is going worse than
they expected, up from 28% in June 2021. This includes two in
three (66%) 2016 Remain voters saying it has gone worse (+19
since June 2021), and one in four (26%) 2016 Leave voters
thinking the same (+16). Almost one in ten (9%) say it is
working out better than expected (-6), while two in five (39%)
think it is meeting their expectations (-7).
(Ipsos MORI)
31 January 2023
100 Days In, Rishi Sunak’s
Ratings Are Lacklustre And He Has Failed To Salvage The Tory
Brand
Rishi Sunak
celebrates his hundredth day in office tomorrow. Tories have
placed their hopes in Sunak to turn the party’s fortunes around
after the disastrous Truss ministry and the scandal-ridden
Johnson government. Since Sunak has taken over, the polls have
stabilized and the Labour lead has narrowed, but nevertheless a
significant gap of 20 points remains. Looking more specifically
at 2019 Conservative voters, while it seems that Sunak has
brought many of those who Truss lost back into the fold, there
is no improvement on the party’s situation at the time Boris
Johnson’s tenure came to an end.
(YouGov UK)
February 01,
2023
Seven In Ten Britons Still Have A Negative View Of Politics
In February
2022, in the aftermath of the investigation into allegations of
rule-breaking social gatherings at Downing Street, YouGov asked
Britons about the state of politics in the UK. The results were
overwhelmingly pessimistic, with 73% of Britons taking a
negative view. By June of last year that had fallen slightly to
66%, but our newly released poll shows that as of December it
had returned to near-Partygate levels, at 71%.
(YouGov UK)
February 02,
2023
(Germany)
Germans Rather Careless With
Their Passwords
Today, February
1st, is Change Your Password Day. On this occasion, YouGov, in
cooperation with Statista, asked the Germans what their password
security was like. It is noticeable that regularly updating or
changing the passwords for their most important logins, such as
e-mail or banking, is not really an issue. Respondents in
Germany are most likely to say that they change their passwords
to their most important accounts infrequently and not at the
same time for different services (27 percent). 18 percent say
they change them less than once a year.
(YouGov Germany)
February 01,
2023
(Italy)
The Travel Market In Italy
Resumes Running Driven By The Online
Looking at the
behavior of Italian tourists, the survey carried out by BVA Doxa
clearly shows the growing digitization of the journey also on
the demand side. The online channel prevails for inspiration: 56%
of travelers declare that they have used only online channels (search
engines in over one out of two cases, followed by review sites,
accommodation and transport aggregators and comparison sites
and, lastly, of accommodation providers).
(BVA Doxa)
February 03,
2023
(Ireland)
Anti-Immigration Sentiment
Bubbling Up To Become A Major Political Issue In Ireland
Nearly a third
of Irish people (34%) disagree with the statement “Irish people
welcome refugees on the whole, it’s just far-right activists
opposing refugees settling in local communities”, suggesting
that anti-refugee sentiment certainly goes farther than a small
minority. Almost half of all Irish adults (45%) would not
support the government using new powers to install modular homes
for Ukrainian refugees, without planning permission in their
area.
(RedC Research)
January 30, 2023
NORTH AMERICA
(USA)
House Gets Younger, Senate
Gets Older: A Look At The Age And Generation Of Lawmakers In The
118th Congress
The U.S. House of Representatives is getting younger – at least
a bit – while the Senate’s median age continues to rise,
according to a Pew Research Center analysis of the newly
installed 118th Congress. The median age of voting House
lawmakers is 57.9 years, down from 58.9 in the 117th Congress
(2021-22), 58.0 in the 116th (2019-20) and 58.4 in the 115th
(2017-18). The new Senate’s median age, on the other hand, is
65.3 years, up from 64.8 in the 117th Congress, 63.6 in the
116th and 62.4 in the 115th.
(PEW)
JANUARY 30, 2023
As Russian Invasion Nears
One-Year Mark, Partisans Grow Further Apart On U.S. Support For
Ukraine
The share of
adults who say the U.S. is providing too much aid to Ukraine has
increased 6 percentage points since last September and 19 points
since shortly after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine last
year, according to a Pew Research Center survey conducted Jan.
18-24 among 5,152 U.S. adults. This shift in opinion is mostly
attributable to the growing share of Republicans who say the
U.S. is providing too much support to Ukraine. Today, 40% of
Republicans and Republican-leaning independents hold this view,
up from 32% in the fall and much higher than the 9% who held
this view in March of last year.
(PEW)
JANUARY 31, 2023
Americans' Dissatisfaction
With Nation Eases, But Still High
Continuing a
two-decade trend, most Americans remain dissatisfied with the
way things are going in the U.S. -- 23% say they are satisfied,
and 76% are dissatisfied. Forty-eight percent, the largest
group, are “very dissatisfied,” but that figure has dropped from
the record-high 66% measured in January 2021. Americans’ intense
dissatisfaction eased last year, to 51%, and inched down further
this year.
(Gallup)
JANUARY 31, 2023
Americans Still Glum About
State Of The Union In Most Areas
The overall
quality of life in the country (65%) and the opportunity for a
person to get ahead by working hard (61%) are the only two
societal dimensions of eight measured in this year’s Mood of the
Nation poll that a majority of Americans view positively. Close
to half of Americans today are satisfied with the influence of
organized religion, while satisfaction drops to a third for the
size and power of the federal government as well as the U.S.
system of government and how it works.
(Gallup)
FEBRUARY 2, 2023
Sports Gambling Growth Driven
By Small Group Of Highly Engaged Sports Fans
Just 8% of
Americans have placed an official bet on a live sporting event
online. Even fewer have bet on a live event in-person (4%) or on
an esports event in either fashion (3%). Sports bettors are more
likely to be male, younger, and wealthier. The most popular
league to bet on among sports bettors is the NFL (59%). Other
popular leagues and sports to bet on include the NBA (34%), NCAA
football (30%), NCAA basketball (26%), MLB (26%), and horse
racing (25%).
(Ipsos USA)
1 February 2023
(Colombia)
How Safe Do Women Feel In The
Bogata
The police put
into operation a special command made up of 500 women to prevent
and report cases of violence against women. A day 87 women in
Bogotá are victims of violence, this crime is increasing.2022
closed with 20% more cases, which is why the capital created the
purple command."In all the
stations you will find a woman with this purple patrol button
where you can file a complaint, we still have our hotlines 155
and 123."
(CNC)
February 01,
2023
AUSTRALIA
(New Zealand)
ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand
Consumer Confidence Up 9.6pts To 83.4 In January
New Zealand
Consumer Confidence jumped 9 points in January to 83.4, more
than undoing its December fall. The lift was driven by the
forward-looking questions. However, the level is still far below
the neutral level of 100 last reached in September 2021. The net
proportion of people who believe it is a good time to buy a
major household item, a key retail indicator, lifted 5 points to
-28% with 25% (up 1ppt) of New Zealanders saying now is a ‘good
time to buy’ a major household item compared to 53% (down 4ppts)
saying now is a ‘bad time to buy’.
(Roy Morgan)
February 03,
2023
(Australia)
NSW Voting Intention: ALP
Increased Their Lead Over The L-NP To End 2022: ALP 55% Cf. L-NP
45%
The latest Roy
Morgan Poll on State voting intention in New South Wales shows
the ALP on 55% (up 3% points since November) well ahead of the
Liberal-National Coalition on 45% (down 3% points) on a
two-party preferred basis. The ALP and Liberal-National
Coalition both lost support to minor parties and independents in
December with the L-NP down 3.5% points to 33.5% and now level
with the ALP on 33.5% (down 1.5% points).
(Roy Morgan)
January 31, 2023
MULTICOUNTRY STUDIES
Support For A Two-State
Solution Among Palestinians And Israelis Declines
A Joint Poll
conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey
Research (PSR) in Ramallah and the International Program in
Conflict Resolution and Mediation at Tel Aviv University.
Slightly more Israeli Jews support one unequal state under
Israeli rule than the two-state solution; but both publics still
prefer two states to any other democratic framework for
resolving the conflict.
(Arabbarometer)
January 30, 2023
Source:
https://www.arabbarometer.org/2023/01/12419/
Africans Want Age Limits For
Government Heads, A Survey Among 34 African Nations
On average
across 34 countries, three-quarters (76%) of Africans are in
favour of a maximum age limit for heads of government. About the
same percentage (74%) support minimum age limits for these chief
public servants. Maximum age limits have majority support in all
surveyed countries, exceeding nine out of 10 citizens in Mali
(95%), Benin (94%), and Senegal (90%).
Citizens’ views on what the minimum and maximum age
limits should be vary widely.
(Afrobarometer)
1 February 2023
ASIA
780-43-01/Polls
Upgrades Eyed For Heatstroke Alerts, Public ‘Cooling Facilities’
The new special
alert will be issued based mainly on surges in the heat index,
which takes into account temperatures and humidity levels, and
experts’ opinions.
The government
will submit a bill to amend the climate change adaptation law to
include new measures to prevent heatstroke.
If passed, the
law will take effect from summer 2024.
Local
governments will designate certain air-conditioned places as
cooling facilities, such as government buildings, public
centers, libraries and shopping malls.
If the new
special alert is issued, the public can take shelter from the
heat at these designated facilities.
“We want to
publicize (the cooling facilities) among households who do not
have air conditioning and elderly people who are at risk of
developing severe heatstroke symptoms,” an Environment Ministry
official said.
According to a
Cabinet Office survey, about 10 percent of households in Japan
do not have air conditioning.
Last year,
central Tokyo observed nine straight extremely hot days from
June 25.
Other locations
in the country also baked under high temperatures from late June
to early July.
The existing
alert system was established in 2020 by the Environment Ministry
and the JMA. It is issued when the heat index is expected to top
33.
The JMA splits
the country into 58 forecast areas. When the alert is issued,
residents in the area affected are urged to use air
conditioners.
The alert was
issued 889 times last summer, including 10 times in Tokyo and 13
times in Osaka Prefecture.
Some local
governments have already secured cooling facilities, but it has
not become a common practice yet.
February 2, 2023
Source:
https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/14830033
AFRICA
780-43-02/Polls
Nigerians Want Competitive Elections But Don’t Trust The
Electoral Commission.
Large majorities
of survey respondents say that multiple political parties are
needed to provide voters a genuine choice and that once
elections are over, the losing side should accept defeat and
work with the government to help the nation flourish.
While a majority
of citizens believe that the last national election in 2019 was
generally free and fair, popular trust in the INEC – the
institution responsible for ensuring a free and fair election –
is declining.
Key findings
Afrobarometer
surveys
Afrobarometer is
a pan-African, non-partisan survey research network that
provides reliable data on African experiences and evaluations of
democracy, governance, and quality of life. Eight survey rounds
in up to 39 countries have been completed since 1999. Round 9
surveys (2021/2023) are currently underway. Afrobarometer’s
national partners conduct face-to-face interviews in the
language of the respondent’s choice.
The
Afrobarometer team in Nigeria, led by NOIPolls, interviewed a
nationally representative sample of 1,600 adult citizens in
March 2022. A sample of this size yields country-level results
with a margin of error of +/-2.5 percentage points at a 95%
confidence level. Previous surveys were conducted in Nigeria in
2000, 2003, 2005, 2008, 2013, 2015, 2017, and 2020.
Charts
Figure 1:
Support for elections as the best way to choose leaders |
Nigeria
| 2003-2022
Respondents were asked: Which
of the following statements is closest to your view?
Statement 1: We should choose our leaders in this country
through regular, open, and honest elections.
Statement 2: Since elections sometimes produce bad results, we
should adopt other methods for choosing this country’s leaders.
(% who “agree” or “strongly agree” with each statement)
Figure 2:
Support for multiparty competition | Nigeria | 2003-2022
Respondents were asked: Which
of the following statements is closest to your view?
Statement 1: Political parties create division and confusion; it
is therefore unnecessary to have many political parties in
Nigeria.
Statement 2: Many political parties are needed to make sure that
Nigerians have real choices in who governs them.
(% who “agree” or “strongly agree” with each statement)
Figure 3: Role
of opposition parties after elections | Nigeria | 2015-2022
Respondents were asked: Which
of the following statements is closest to your view?
Statement 1: After losing an election, opposition parties should
monitor and criticise the government in order to hold it
accountable.
Statement 2: Once an election is over, opposition parties and
politicians should accept defeat and cooperate with government
to help it develop the country.
(% who “agree” or “strongly agree” with each statement)
Figure 4:
Freeness and fairness of 2019 election | Nigeria | 2022
Respondents were asked: On
the whole, how would you rate the freeness and fairness of the
last national election, held in 2019?
Figure 5:
Popular trust in the electoral commission and other state
institutions
| Nigeria | 2022
Respondents were asked: How
much do you trust each of the following, or haven’t you heard
enough about them to say?
Figure 6: Trust
the electoral commission somewhat/a lot | Nigeria |
2000-2022
Respondents were asked: How
much do you trust each of the following, or haven’t you heard
enough about them to say: The Independent National Electoral
Commission (INEC)? (% who say “somewhat” or “a lot”)
February 3, 2023
Source:
https://noi-polls.com/trust-in-electoral-commission/
780-43-03/Polls
Ethiopians Grim After Two Years Of War
While unable to
access the Tigray region because of the conflict, the latest
Gallup study conducted throughout the rest of Ethiopia in the
fall of 2022 found a record-high 65% of Ethiopians reporting
they struggled to afford food in the past year.
The World Food
Programme estimates that food prices in Ethiopia were up 43% in
April 2022 compared with April 2021, while the cost of certain
staples, like vegetable oil, have soared over 80%. Ethiopia,
which is the second-most-populous nation in Africa, is also
facing its worst drought in 40 years, according to United
Nations officials. The situation is almost certainly worse in
the Tigray region, which faced a blockade of many essential
goods including food, medicine and humanitarian aid throughout
the course of the conflict.
The rising cost
of food is exacerbated by pressure on income as well. In 2019,
before the COVID-19 pandemic and the war, 28% of Ethiopians felt
that it was “very difficult” for them to get by on their present
household income. Today, that number has climbed to 45%. With
economic growth falling below 4% in 2022 (compared with an
average of 9.7% between 2010 and 2018), workers will continue to
be hard-pressed to make ends meet.
Ethiopians’ Ratings of Their Lives Continue to Fall
Although
Ethiopians have rated their present lives lower than the global
average for the past decade, their evaluations have dropped
dramatically since 2020.
The headwinds
facing the country may also have exacted a toll on Ethiopians’
emotional health. In October 2020, after the emergence of
COVID-19 but before the outbreak of war, 28% of Ethiopians
reported feeling worried during a lot of the day. By the fall of
2022, that number had risen to 41%. Reported levels of physical
pain, anger and stress also increased during this period.
Implications
Ethiopia faces a
monumental task in rebuilding and reconciliation in the wake of
the conflict there. The widespread humanitarian crisis in the
Tigray region, accompanied by growing pressures throughout the
rest of the country, places a large burden on the government to
not only wind down and recover from years of war in the north,
but to help spur growth and stability throughout the country.
Yet despite the
headwinds, there has been some positive news in recent weeks.
The cessation of hostilities has allowed the U.N. and other
agencies greater access to provide humanitarian relief to Tigray,
including more than 3,000 trucks of food and medical supplies
since the war ended.
The national
government has also attempted to normalize relationships with
the global community, including the attendance of Prime Minister
Abiy Ahmed at the U.S.-Africa Leaders Summit that took place in
Washington in December. This meeting laid the groundwork for
improved U.S.-Ethiopia relations, including the nomination of a
new ambassador to Addis Ababa, a position that has been vacant
since last January.
FEBRUARY 2, 2023
Source:
https://news.gallup.com/poll/468992/ethiopians-grim-two-years-war.aspx
WEST EUROPE
780-43-04/Polls
British Streaming Market Shows Signs Of Recovery After A
Turbulent Year
Kantar
Worldpanel’s Entertainment on Demand study in Great Britain
uncovers the following behaviours within the Video on Demand
(VoD) market between September to December 2022:
Prime Video
drives the market back to growth off the back of rising Prime
membership
After a period
of 12 months, when one million British households dropped out of
the SVoD market, the final quarter of 2022 brought some relief,
with the sector returning to growth.
Dominic Sunnebo,
Global Insight Director, Kantar, Worldpanel Division, comments,
“Prime Video had a strong final quarter of the year, with an
increasing number of households taking out Prime memberships and
using the Prime delivery service in the run-up to the Christmas
holidays. With an influx of subscriptions, Prime Video managed
to hold its conversion rate steady, with 61% of Prime members
using the service.”
Disney+
struggles to uphold subscriber advocacy
Disney+ has had
an exceptional year in Britain and managed to maintain its
subscriber growth through Q4, albeit at a slower rate. It
overtook Netflix earlier in the year in Net Promoter Score, a
measure of subscriber advocacy, however, in Q4, Netflix drew
level again as Disney+ suffered from a drop in this measure.
Disney+ subscriber satisfaction with the number of new release
films dropped to its lowest point throughout the year.
Paramount+
reduces reliance on Sky due to steady subscription rise
The recently
launched Paramount+ service continues to draw in new
subscribers, achieving 7.6% share of new sign-ups in the latest
quarter. This signals that direct-to-consumer sales are
increasing, reducing
Paramount+’s
reliance on the Sky Cinema partnership. The Star Trek offerings
on Paramount+, as well as global hit Yellowstone, were key draws
to the service. However, subscriber recommendation of the
service remains low, and overall subscribers rate the quality of
shows significantly below competitors.
Discovery+ has
something of the opposite challenge of Paramount+; it is
managing to rapidly increase subscriber satisfaction levels but
struggling to accelerate growth in numbers. Discovery+
subscribers are increasingly satisfied with the amount of
original content on offer as well as the quality of the shows,
which has translated into a consistent drop in planned and
actual cancellation of the service.
Netflix ad-tier
strategy appeals to new subscribers, but existing subscribers
unconvinced
Netflix launched
its ad-supported tier in Britain in November, as part of a
strategy to turn around subscriber losses and bolster profit at
the American giant. The new tier, Netflix Basic with ads,
reduced the entry price from Ł6.99 to Ł4.99. Early data from
Kantar Worldpanel EoD shows around 4% of existing Netflix
subscribers downgraded to the new, cheaper, ad-supported tier
during December, whilst just under one in five new subscribers
chose the ad-supported tier. However, there was no big bump in
subscriptions as a result of the launch. Netflix held 7.5% share
of new subscribers in Q4 2022, indicating the Ł2 monthly price
saving is not going to be enough to drive a significant new wave
of Netflix subscribers in Britain.
Adams Family
spin-off drives Netflix engagement
Despite a muted
response in Great Britain to its ad supported price plan,
Netflix hit Wednesday, an Adams Family spin-off starring Jenna
Ortega and Catherine Zeta-Jones, dominated the most enjoyed
content during December, with 16% of all VoD subscribers citing
it as their most enjoyed title. One in 10 new Netflix
subscribers in December specifically cited Wednesday as their
reason for signing up. This was followed by
The Crown on
Netflix and Andor on Disney+. NOW sleeper hit, The White Lotus,
was the 3rd most enjoyed title over the quarter. The Harry &
Meghan documentary on Netflix jumped into 5th place in terms of
most-enjoyed titles in December in Great Britain, in sharp
contrast to the US where it was placed 95th, despite The Crown
performing very strongly in the States. The Lord of the Rings:
The Rings of Power continues to draw in new customers to Prime
Video, with 15% of their new subscribers naming the hit show as
their reason for signing up.
30 January 2023
780-43-05/Polls
Three Years On And 45% Say Brexit Is Going Worse Than Expected
Figures are
similar when asked the impact Brexit has had on their daily
life. Some 45% think leaving the EU has made it worse (unchanged
since June 2022), against 37% stating it has made no difference
(+3), and one in ten (11%) saying it has bettered their lives
(-6).
When asked what
the negative outcomes of Brexit are, increased barriers to trade
between the UK and EU comes out on top, mentioned by two in five
(40%), up 13 percentage points since last asked in March 2021.
This is followed by three in ten saying the end of freedom of
movement (30%, +5), and one in four citing less international
cooperation between the UK and EU (26%, +7).
On the other
hand, when asked about the positive outcomes, just over one in
five either mention Britain gaining control over its laws and
regulations (23%, unchanged), being able to respond to the
Covid-19 pandemic better (22%, +1) or Britain being able to make
its own decisions generally (21%, unchanged). However, around
equal to this was one in four (24%) saying there are no positive
outcomes (+4).
Britain’s future relationship with the European Union
Even three years
on few believe that negotiations between the UK and the EU are
over. Fewer than one in five (18%) say the relationship is now
mostly decided and will hardly change over the next few years
(18%, +4 since June 2021). In comparison, while nearly three in
ten believe the broad outlines of a future relationship will not
change much over the next few years but there remain important
areas left to decide (28%, +5), over one in three opt for saying
there are still many important issues to finalise which means
lots more negotiations over the next few years (36%). However,
the proportion believing there are many more negotiations to
come has dropped from 45% in June 2021.
The overwhelming
majority, 84%, think it’s important to maintain a close
relationship with the EU (+6 since June 2022), against just one
in ten (10%, -6) saying the opposite. However, opinion is more
divided on whether this will happen, with just fewer than half
saying it’s likely that Britain and the EU will have a close
relationship (47%, +2) and a similar proportion saying it’s
unlikely (41%, -4). Although public opinion has grown more
optimistic since September 2020 (when 39% thought likely,
against 49% unlikely).
When asked which
two or three areas should be top priorities for Britain’s
relationship with the EU, coming out first is improving the
trade agreement to make it easier to buy and sell goods and
services, mentioned by nearly two in five (37%, +4 since June
2022). This is followed by three in ten prioritising working
with the EU to reduce illegal immigration (29%, +7), and one in
four wanting close collaboration on preventing and detecting
crime and terrorism (25%, +5).
While trade is a
priority for both Leave and Remain voters alike (mentioned by
40% in each camp), 2016 Leave voters are more than twice as
likely to prioritise working together to reduce illegal
immigration (42% vs. 19%). Whereas 2016 Remain voters are three
times as likely to cite making it easier for British citizens to
study or work in the EU (23% vs. 7%).
Kelly Beaver MBE, CEO of Ipsos in the UK and Ireland,
says of the findings:
Three years on, and against the backdrop of recent political and
economic uncertainty, the public are pessimistic about the
direction of the country, and doubts about Brexit are part of
that. Britons have noticed that further negotiations may be
needed, and whether they be a Brexiteer and Remainer, they want
an improvement to our current trade agreement to make it easier
to buy and sell with the EU. However, underlying differences
between the rival camps still exist with Leave voters far more
concerned about illegal immigration and Remain voters about the
loss of freedom of movement .
(Ipsos MORI)
30 January 2023
Source:
https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/three-years-and-45-percent-britons-say-brexit-going-worse-expected
780-43-06/Polls
Two
In Three Britons Think The Worst Of The Cost-Of-Living Crisis Is
Still To Come
As the IMF
releases pessimistic forecasts for the
UK economy, new polling from Ipsos reveals that 67% of Britons
believe the worst of the cost of living crisis is still to come,
while 27% think that its impact has already reached its peak.
Younger people are particularly likely to think the worst is yet
to come (80% of 18-34 year olds vs 56% of those aged 65+). When
asked in March 2012 about the economic crisis, several years
after 2008, 56% believed the worst was yet to come, and 41% that
that crisis had reached its peak.
Britons remain very worried about the cost of living, especially
young people. However, looking further ahead the entrenched
economic pessimism of the last year is showing signs of getting
slightly less gloomy – but this isn’t as yet benefiting the
Conservatives much, as people are twice as likely to think they
would be better off under a Labour government (though even more
think it would make no difference).
31 January 2023
Source:
https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/two-three-britons-think-worst-cost-living-crisis-still-come
780-43-07/Polls
100
Days In, Rishi Sunak’s Ratings Are Lacklustre And He Has Failed
To Salvage The Tory Brand
But YouGov data
shows that he has so far failed in his task, with the Tories
trailing Labour in the voting intention polls, and are seen as
less competent to handle the big issues. Likewise, Sunak’s
personal ratings, while in some areas better than those of his
predecessors’, remain mediocre.
Voting intention has stabilised with Labour holding over a
20-point lead, and the Conservative brand has not seen any
recovery
During Liz
Truss’s time as prime minister the Conservatives plummeted in
the headline voting intention polls, with Labour taking the
largest lead over the party – 33 points – since YouGov was
founded in 2000.
Sunak has not revitalized the Tory brand
The image of the
Conservative Party also sunk during the tail end of the Johnson
era and that of his short-lived successor, with positive
perceptions of the party hitting very low levels. In fact, on
all nine attributes about the Conservative party covered by our
website trackers, more people now take a negative view of the
party than a positive one.
On no attribute
are perceptions now better than they were under Boris Johnson,
and only on the sense of being “moderate” rather than “extreme”
are they noticeably better than they were under Liz Truss.
Sunak performs better on competence and trustworthiness than his
predecessors, although his scores are still poor
The prime
minister’s personal favourability rating is comparatively better
than those of his predecessors, sitting at -29 compared to
Johnson’s final score of -40 and Truss’s rock bottom -70.
On some key
measures Sunak as prime minister is also seen more favourably
than both Truss and Johnson.
In particular,
he is seen as competent by more of the public than both, albeit
on a low score of 32% to Truss’s 21% and Johnson’s 23%.
Having pledged to restore trust in politics, Rishi
Sunak is indeed considered more trustworthy than Boris Johnson,
although that isn’t saying much – only 22% of Britons say the
prime minister is trustworthy, compared to 11% for Johnson at
the end of his tenure. (This question was not asked of Liz Truss
in her short time in power)
However, Britons
are no more likely to see Sunak as decisive than his
predecessors (all scored within 23-27%), and less of the public
see him as strong, with 19% saying so for Sunak, 23% for Truss
and 30% for Johnson.
Sunak is seen as a bad prime minister, and has failed to show he
can manage the issues that Britons see as important
Sunak is
increasingly seen as a bad prime minister, with 56% of Britons
saying so as of late January. While this is not as poor a score
as Liz Truss (71%) or Boris Johnson (68%) received at the end of
their tenures, Sunak is still a relative unknown compared to
Johnson – the discrepancy between the number of people who say
Johnson vs Sunak is a bad PM is explained purely by different
rates of don’t know responses (7% vs 19%) rather than people
being more likely to see him as a good prime minister (25% vs
26%).
Indeed, the
number of Britons who would choose Rishi Sunak as their
preferred prime minister over Keir Starmer stands at just 22% -
around the level Boris Johnson experienced during 'partygate'.
Sunak came to
power on a promise of competence, in contrast to the chaos that
reigned under his predecessors, and to focus on the issues that
matter to the public, including, among other things, “economic
stability and confidence”, “a stronger NHS” and “control of our
borders”.
But, when
looking at how well the public think the government Sunak leads
is handling key issues, overwhelming numbers say the government
is badly managing the NHS (85%), immigration (79%) and the
economy (76%).
Dissatisfaction
with government handling of the NHS has only grown under Sunak,
with the figure under Truss’s time in office ending on 80%, and
under Johnson 76% saying so.
Immigration is
on par with around eight in ten saying ‘badly’ under all three
leaders (77% for Truss, 79% for Johnson). The economy was seen
to be handled equally as poorly by Johnson (78%), but
significantly worse by Truss and her government (87%).
Labour have taken the lead on policy competence in most areas
It’s not just
that people think that Sunak and the Conservatives are handling
these issues badly that is a concern for the party at the next
general election, it is also the fact that people are starting
to think the Labour party would handle them better.
The economy is
an area that historically Conservatives have been trusted with
over Labour: indeed for most of Johnson’s time in office he held
public confidence in this area. But Labour are now seen by more
Britons as better to handle the issue by 29% to 21%.
Similarly, until
Truss Conservatives had held their position on being seen as the
better party to handle immigration, but again Labour now hold
the lead (by 23% to 18%). And whilst Labour has historically
been seen as the better party to handle the NHS, the distance
between the parties has grown, with 40% saying Labour and just
13% saying Conservatives.
February 01,
2023
780-43-08/Polls
Seven In Ten Britons Still Have A Negative View Of Politics
After a tumultuous year in politics saw two prime ministers
ousted, a disastrous mini-budget and the start of many public
sector strikes, YouGov research reviews the state of politics
according to the British public
Tory voters are
less likely than their Labour counterparts to hold a negative
view of the state of politics, but in both cases a solid
majority are pessimistic (63% and 85% respectively).
Just 7% of
Britons have a positive view of politics, including 12% of
Conservative voters and 2% of Labour supporters.
Who is responsible for the state of politics?
The public
maintain that the prime minister (82%) and the government (83%)
hold a great deal or fair amount of responsibility in how
politics operates in Britain; this view has declined slightly
from 87% in the case of the former and 89% in the case of the
latter since February last year.
Likewise, a
large majority of people (76%) continue to think that ‘all
politicians’ have a great or fair amount of responsibility for
how politics operates, down slightly from 83% in February. Most
Britons (56%) also hold civil servants accountable for how
politics currently operates, itself down from 65% at the
beginning of last year.
Today’s politicians are still viewed negatively
Around half
think that today’s politicians from all parties are generally
less honest (54%), more corrupt (48%), are less likely to work
for the country’s best interests (53%), improve matters for
people (52%) or work for the country’s best interests (53%) than
those of the past.
A further third
think there is little change between today’s and former
politicians across these five metrics, whilst 5% or less think
things have improved.
Those Britons
with a positive view of the current state of politics in Britain
tend to think that today’s politicians are no different from
those of years gone by (50-63% say so across each measure). Most
of those with a negative view of politics say that today’s
politicians are worse (59-65%).
February 02,
2023
780-43-09/Polls
Germans Rather Careless With Their Passwords
Recent YouGov poll with Statista about changing passwords
On the other
hand, 12 percent say that they never change their passwords at
all. Women make this statement slightly more often than men (13
vs. 10 percent). The age comparison shows that respondents from
GenZ, i.e. those aged 18 to 24, are the most negligent: 21
percent of them state that they never change their most
important passwords (vs. 9 percent of those over 55). These are
results of a YouGov survey in cooperation with Statista.
Passwords are the most common ones to come up with
Three out of
five people in Germany (61 percent) state that they think up
their passwords themselves. Women say this remarkably more often
than men (67 vs. 55 percent). 17 percent of all respondents use
a specific password and exchange only one or more characters for
each new account/website. One in ten (9 percent) uses a password
creator from the Internet. 5 percent do not create their own
passwords, but use the same ones their partners or family
members use.
Memorize instead of manage - Half of Germans do not use a
password manager
When asked
whether they use a password manager for at least some of their
passwords, every second person surveyed in Germany (49 percent)
stated that they do not do so and do not intend to do so in the
future. One in four (25 percent), on the other hand, currently
uses such a password manager. Here, too, men are pioneers (28
vs. 22 percent of women). 16 percent of all respondents state
that they intend to use a password manager in the future.
February 01,
2023
780-43-10/Polls
The
Travel Market In Italy Resumes Running Driven By The Online
On the occasion of the "Travel Innovation Day - Travel takes off
again: digital at the controls", a conference of the Digital
Innovation Observatory in Tourism of the School of Management of
the Milan Polytechnic, BVA Doxa presented some data on the
Digital Journey of the Italian tourist.
THE MARKET
CONTEXT - eCommerce drives the recovery of the Italian tourism
market: the hospitality sector in 2022 exceeds the last
pre-pandemic survey (€16.4 billion against 14.6) while the
transport sector is close to breakeven (€11.2 billion against
12). Organized tourism is also restarting: the tour operating
market in 2022 is worth 70% of what it invoiced in 2019 and the
travel agency sector stands at -19% on the pre-pandemic
Even in the booking phase, online is the master: for
accommodation, the share of those who have used exclusively
online channels reaches 59% ,
while for transport 63% . Furthermore, 22% of
travelers turn to a travel agency or consultant to acquire
information or book a holiday.
The number of
travelers who purchased products linked to the location visited
via eCommerce also continues to grow, representing 33%
of the total, against 12% in 2019 and 9% in 2018 . The
offer is also adapting to the growing demand for neverending experiences
, i.e. tourist experiences extended in time and space: 12% of
accommodation facilities offer their customers the opportunity
to purchase products of the destination (food and wine,
handicrafts, etc.) through eCommerce.
SUSTAINABILITY,
FLEXIBILITY AND HOLIDAY WORKING – While sustainability is
a topic on the agenda for almost all the players in the offer
(in the hospitality sector alone, 82% of
the structures have activated actions for the use of low-cost products environmental impact , 78% for
the reduction of waste )
the interest among travelers is not yet pervasive. In fact,
only 19% of
tourists sought information on the environmental sustainability
of services before booking and 20% selected
service providers using sustainability as a criterion.
The offer of
solutions based on flexibility is
also growing, an increasingly important aspect for the traveller,
which concerns both bookings and payments. In fact, the flexible
rate was used by 34% of
travelers to book accommodation and by 23% for
transport, while 14% of
travelers used installment payments to purchase travel-related
services.
Lastly, holiday
working is confirmed as a significant trend for the
development of destinations: 17% of
Italians declared that they had worked remotely from a holiday
resort in the central six months of 2022. In confirmation of
this trend, almost half of the accommodation facilities (49%) declare
that they have hosted customers who have done smart working at
the facility.
February 03,
2023
Source:
https://www.bva-doxa.com/il-mercato-dei-viaggi-in-italia-riprende-a-correre-trainato-dallonline/
780-43-11/Polls
Anti-Immigration Sentiment Bubbling Up To Become A Major
Political Issue In Ireland
Céad mile
fáilte, a hundred thousand welcomes. The average Irish
citizen is justifiably proud of the renowned welcoming nature of
the Irish to visitors and those who have come to make their life
here.
This welcoming
nature, our own history of emigration, coupled with the fact
that Ireland simply wasn’t a major destination for immigrants in
the past, has meant that unlike in the UK, immigration has never
been a major political issue come elections here. That’s
not to say it hasn’t featured at all, but other factors such as
health and the economy have been far more important to most.
There are signs
in today’s poll that this may be beginning to change, as several
factors align to create a situation that is driving rising
scrutiny of Ireland’s immigration policies and the impact they
may have on local communities, and possibly anti-refugee
sentiment overall.
Firstly, the war
in Ukraine has meant that there is a much larger number of
refugees seeking assistance. The need to look after those
fleeing from the war in Ukraine has generally been accepted and
supported by the Irish population up to now.
Secondly, the UK
has got a lot tougher on inward immigration, and this has pushed
some of those seeking refuge in the UK to turn their attention
to Ireland, where it’s potentially easier to come to.
Thirdly, we are
in the middle of a housing crisis, with a lack of affordable
housing and availability that is driving real anger among a
section of the electorate most impacted. The lack of
housing also means the government is being forced into using
unusual solutions to try and house incoming refugees.
Hotels in tourist areas and unused office spaces are being used
to accommodate refugees, often at short notice, in a way that
perhaps hadn’t been done for those in Ireland struggling to find
a place to live.
All of these
factors coming together are creating a perfect storm, with a
lack of housing, and the pressure to accommodate a rising number
of refugees, impacting on the Irish people’s usual welcoming
nature, as refugees have arrived on mass without much notice to
the local residents.
While many would
like to blame this on right wing groups, and it is clear they
have been stoking the fire among local communities, it’s also
apparent that this attitude is not isolated to them.
Nearly a third of Irish people (34%)
disagree with the statement “Irish people welcome refugees on
the whole, it’s just far-right activists opposing refugees
settling in local communities”, suggesting that anti-refugee
sentiment certainly goes farther than a small minority.
Levels of
disagreement are highest among those in society who are more
under pressure, those with less income in more deprived areas,
the less well educated, and crucially those that currently plan
to vote for Sinn Féin.
While you may
think this is to do with the lack of planning, that is not
strictly the case. When we asked the same question about
the government using new powers to install modular homes for
people on housing waiting lists, without planning permission in
their local area, this is much more strongly supported (63%)
with only 27% opposing.
Finally, only
just over 2 in 5 adults across the country think the government
is doing a good job dealing with the refugee crisis, with almost
a half (49%) making it plain they think they are doing a bad
job.
Whatever you
think of the rights and wrongs of ensuring we provide for those
in need, it’s also clear that the lack of consultation and upset
among the public suggests the government needs to be careful how
they deal with refugee housing moving forward, as this issue is
clearly upsetting a large cohort of the public.
Gains for Sinn
Féin in this poll could be wholly put down to them making a lot
of noise about Pascal Donohoe and his election expenses saga,
and the claims of possible corruption of those in government.
Certainly, this
will have had some impact given the focus was very firmly on him
as the poll was taken. The idea of corruption among those
in power also plays very well to those in society that feel left
behind.
However, the
refugee issue is also likely to be a factor for many, who
believe the government is not handling it well or fairly.
Once again, those without in society feel they are the ones
suffering as a result.
For Fine Gael,
the expenses issue certainly appears to have taken away the
momentum they had been building in the run up to Christmas, and
is doubly upsetting for them given consumer confidence is also
beginning to see some green shoots which would normally help the
government parties.
But this
election expenses issue will pass; whereas the idea that another
80,000 refugees may come to Ireland in 2023 is surely only going
to increase pressure on government, with the immigration issue
perhaps now much more important than it had been in past
elections.
January 30, 2023
NORTH AMERICA
780-43-12/Polls
House Gets Younger, Senate Gets Older: A Look At The Age And
Generation Of Lawmakers In The 118th Congress
How we did this
The House’s median age has ticked down because newly elected,
first-time members are predominantly in their 40s or younger. Of
the 73 freshman representatives in the House – those who were
elected for the first time in the November 2022 midterms – 31
are in their 40s, 15 are in their 30s and one – Rep. Maxwell
Alejandro Frost, D-Fla. – just turned 26 in January. The
remaining new lawmakers are in their 50s or 60s.
A large majority of the 118th House’s first-time members (64 of
73) are below the chamber’s median age of 57.9. The median age
of new representatives is 46.3, down from 52.1 among new members
in the prior Congress.
The Senate, for its part, has gotten older even though the
median age of the eight new senators in the 118th Congress is
far below that of the chamber as a whole (49.4 vs. 65.3). Three
of the new senators, all Republicans, are in their 40s, while
another new Republican – J.D. Vance of Ohio – is in his 30s.
Three other new senators, including two Republicans and one
Democrat, are in their 50s, while another new Democrat, Peter
Welch of Vermont, is in his 70s.
Differences by party
In the House, the 39 freshman Republican representatives skew
somewhat older than the 34 new Democratic House members. The
median age of freshmen House Republicans is 47.2, compared with
44.1 for first-time Democrats in the chamber.
Overall, the median age of House Democrats is 58.1, while the
median age of House Republicans is 57.4. In the Senate,
Democrats’ median age is nearly on par with that of Republicans
(65.4 vs. 65.3).
New Congress has more Millennials and Gen Xers – and fewer
Boomers
Another way to look at the age of the new Congress is through
the lens of generation.
In Congress overall, older generations – that is, Baby Boomers
(born 1946-64) and the Silent Generation (1928-45) – constitute
54% of all members. This is only a slight edge over younger
generations – Generation Z (born after 1996), Millennials
(1981-96) and Generation X (1965-80) – who together make up 46%
of members.
In the House, most of the freshman lawmakers are Generation Xers
(39) or Millennials (24), while Frost is the
first-ever Generation Z member of Congress. The remaining first-time members are Baby Boomers.
Overall, 52 members of the 118th House are Millennials, up from
31 in the 117th Congress and 26 in the 116th. Members of that
generation, who are between the ages of 27 and 42 in 2023, now
represent 12% of all current voting House members and are
divided equally between Republicans and Democrats.
In addition, 166 House members are Gen Xers, who are between the
ages of 43 and 58 in 2023. That number is up from 144 in the
117th Congress and is second in size in the new Congress only to
Boomers (194), who are between the ages of 59 and 77 this year.
Gen X’s share of the House now stands at 38%, up from 33% in the
last Congress. Republicans hold a slight edge in this generation
with 88 members, compared with 78 Democrats.
Collectively, younger generations – Gen X, Millennials and Gen Z
– have about as many House members (219) as Boomers and the
Silent Generation combined (215). Boomers’ share of the House
continues to decline – to 45%, down from 53% in the 117th
Congress – though it is still larger than any other generation
represented in the chamber. The ranks of the Silent Generation,
who are between the ages of 78 and 95 in 2023, continue to
dwindle: Just 21 Silent Generation members remain in the House,
or 5% of the whole chamber – down from 27, or 6%, in the
previous Congress.
In the Senate, Boomers continue to dominate, with 66 senators in
this generation. That is slightly down from the previous
Congress (68) but in line with the two before it (66 and 65,
respectively). The number of Silent Generation senators has
fallen to eight. As recently as the 115th Congress (2017-18), 19
senators were part of that generation. The number of Gen X
senators has ticked up to 23, compared with 20 in the previous
Congress.
The changing generational profile of Congress is linked to other
shifts that are taking place on Capitol Hill. For example, the
slow decline in lawmakers who are members of the Baby Boom or
Silent generations – many of whom came of age during the U.S.
military engagements in Korea and Vietnam – has accompanied a long-term
decrease in the share of legislators who are veterans.
And the arrival of younger generations of lawmakers has brought
additional changes, including growing
racial and ethnic diversity in Congress.
JANUARY 30, 2023
780-43-13/Polls
As
Russian Invasion Nears One-Year Mark, Partisans Grow Further
Apart On U.S. Support For Ukraine
As the United
States ramps up military
aid to Ukraine, the share of Americans who say the
U.S. is providing too much support has grown. About a quarter
(26%) now say the U.S. is providing too much support to Ukraine,
while 31% say it is giving the right amount and 20% would like
to see the U.S. give Ukraine additional assistance.
How we did this
There has also
been an increase in the share of Democrats who say the U.S. is
providing too much support to Ukraine. Still, only 15% of
Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents currently say
this, up from 5% last March. About six-in-ten Democrats either
say the U.S. is providing about the right amount of support to
Ukraine (40%) or that the U.S. is not providing enough support
(23%).
Public attention
to the Russia-Ukraine conflict is little changed in recent
months, with about two-thirds of Americans (65%) – including
similar shares of Republicans and Democrats – saying they follow
news about the invasion at least somewhat closely.
But there is a
wide partisan gap over whether Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
poses a major threat to U.S. interests or not, a shift from the
early days of the conflict. Last March, Republicans and
Democrats were about equally likely to say that the invasion
posed a major threat to U.S. interests (51% of Republicans said
this, as did 50% of Democrats). The share of Americans who see
the conflict as a major threat to U.S. interests has declined in
both parties since March 2022. Today, Republicans are far less
likely than Democrats to say this (29% vs. 43%).
More Americans approve than disapprove of Biden administration’s
approach to Russian invasion of Ukraine
In the Center’s
new survey, about four-in-ten U.S. adults (43%) say they approve
of the Biden administration’s response to Russia’s invasion of
Ukraine, while about a third (34%) disapprove. About two-in-ten
(22%) say they are not sure. Views of the Biden administration’s
response have changed little since
May 2022, the last time this question was asked.
Public ratings
of the administration’s response to the Russian invasion of
Ukraine remain more positive than President Joe Biden’s overall
job approval rating. Today, 38%
of Americans approve of Biden’s job performance,
while six-in-ten disapprove.
Democrats are
more than twice as likely as Republicans (61% vs. 27%) to
approve of the Biden administration’s response to the Russia
invasion. Republicans, for their part, are considerably more
likely to approve of the administration’s response to the
invasion than to approve of Biden’s overall job performance (27%
vs. 6%).
JANUARY 31, 2023
780-43-14/Polls
Americans' Dissatisfaction With Nation Eases, But Still High
Each month,
Gallup asks Americans whether they are satisfied or dissatisfied
with the way things are going in the U.S. Periodically,
including in most January Mood of the Nation polls, Gallup has
asked a follow-up question probing the intensity of Americans’
satisfaction or dissatisfaction. The Jan. 2-22 survey finds 5%
of U.S. adults are very satisfied, 18% somewhat satisfied, 28%
somewhat dissatisfied and 48% very dissatisfied.
In most years
since 2007, more people have been very dissatisfied with the
state of the nation than either somewhat dissatisfied or
satisfied. During this time, the average percentage very
dissatisfied has been 46%.
Strong
dissatisfaction reached its peak in 2021,
at 66%, amid the Jan. 6 U.S. Capitol riot and a then-record
number of U.S. coronavirus cases and deaths.
Overall Satisfaction Similar to Last Month, but Higher Than a
Year Ago
The 23% of
Americans who are satisfied today represents an increase from
January 2022 (17%) and January 2021 (11%), but it is similar to
the 22% Gallup measured in its December poll.
In 2022,
satisfaction ranged from a low of 13% in June and
July, a time of high gas prices and rising inflation, to a high
of 24% in March.
From a broader
historical perspective, Americans’ satisfaction remains below
the 36% average in all
measures since Gallup first asked the question in
1979.
All Major Party Groups Rate State of Nation Negatively
Majorities of
all three major political party groups are dissatisfied with the
state of the nation, although there is a difference in degree.
While a larger proportion of Democrats are “somewhat” (36%)
rather than “very” (28%) dissatisfied, the largest shares of
independents (46%) and Republicans (75%) are very dissatisfied.
The decline in
strong dissatisfaction over the past two years is mainly seen
among Democrats, though fewer independents have said they were
very dissatisfied in each of the past two years.
Meanwhile, the
percentage of Republicans who are very dissatisfied has ticked
up since 2021, likely because of the change from a Republican to
a Democratic presidential administration that occurred after the
2021 survey was conducted.
JANUARY 31, 2023
Source:
https://news.gallup.com/poll/469070/americans-dissatisfaction-nation-eases-high.aspx
780-43-15/Polls
Americans Still Glum About State Of The Union In Most Areas
Americans’
assessment of the state of the nation remains in the
pandemic-era slump seen since 2021, marked by subdued
satisfaction with 30 different aspects of the country. These
include the public’s reaction to several aspects of U.S. society
generally, as well as to numerous specific issues facing the
country.
These findings
from Gallup’s Jan. 2-22 Mood of the Nation poll come as only 23%
of Americans are broadly satisfied with the way
things are going in the country, while the rest are
dissatisfied, including nearly half “very dissatisfied.”
Most Are Content With Quality of Life but Not Nation’s Morals
Even these
satisfaction ratings, however, are well below the record highs
of 89% for the quality of life in 2001-2002 and 77% for
opportunity in 2002.
Americans are
least satisfied with the nation’s moral and ethical climate
(20%), the way income and wealth are distributed (24%), and the
size and influence of major corporations (27%).
Gallup has
measured Americans’ satisfaction with various aspects of the
country each January since 2001, except in 2009 and 2010, when
the question was not asked.
The only
significant change in the broad societal ratings over the past
year is a six-percentage-point decline in satisfaction with the
way income and wealth are distributed. This may reflect, at
least in part, the prolonged period of high inflation since
January 2022 that has created
financial hardship for many.
Seven of the
eight societal dimensions (all but income/wealth equality) have
been measured annually since 2001. The average rating is 41%
today, identical to the
composite rating in 2022 and similar to the
record-low 39% found in 2021.
Average
satisfaction was significantly
higher in January 2020, just before the start of the
COVID-19 pandemic, and it had ranged narrowly from 44% to 50%
for the nine years prior to that. Satisfaction with these
big-picture aspects of the country was even higher in the early
2000s, exceeding 60% in 2001 and 2002 before dropping into the
50s from 2003 to 2008.
Issue Area Ratings Highest for Military and Positions of Women,
Gay and Lesbian People
The new survey
also probed Americans’ satisfaction with 22 specific public
policy and life areas. Public satisfaction with these ranges
from a high of 64% for the nation’s military strength and
preparedness to a low of 14% for the nation’s campaign finance
laws.
The public is
content with just four issue areas this year, based on
majority-level satisfaction. In addition to the nation’s
military strength, these are the position of women in the
nation, the acceptance of gay and lesbian people, and the
nation’s security from terrorism. All others, however, fall
short, including 13 that earn lower than 40% satisfaction.
Over the past
year, satisfaction improved by a statistically meaningful amount
in just two areas -- security from terrorism (up eight points to
55%), and the Social Security and Medicare systems (+7), while
it declined in five: the economy (down 8 points to 25%), the
acceptance of gay and lesbian people (-7), the nation’s gun laws
or policies (-7), the level of immigration (-6) and the nation’s
efforts to deal with poverty and homelessness (-6).
Seventeen of
this year's issue ratings have been measured annually since 2002
(when terrorism was added to the list). Average satisfaction on
these is 36% in 2023. This matches last year's average, when
satisfaction with various specific areas of policy and life in
America had fallen to the lowest in Gallup’s 23-year trend.
Unlike average
satisfaction with broad aspects of the country, which was
routinely above 50% in the early 2000s before falling into the
40s and 30s, satisfaction with specific issues has rarely varied
more than two points from the average 43% satisfaction rating
for 2002-2021, before falling to 36% in 2022.
Party Differences
Partisans’ views
on the state of the nation are similar in a few respects, while
highly divergent in others.
The largest
differences in macro-societal views are on the influence of
organized religion -- with a majority of Republicans versus a
third of Democrats satisfied -- and the size and power of the
federal government, about which the majority of Democrats versus
few Republicans are satisfied.
Republicans and
Democrats share a mostly negative view of the size and influence
of major corporations, with only about a quarter of each group
(and the same proportion of independents) satisfied.
Satisfaction is also universally scant with income and wealth
distribution and the nation’s moral and ethical climate.
On the positive
side, majorities of all three groups are satisfied with the
opportunity to succeed through hard work and with the overall
quality of life.
Partisan
differences are starker with respect to specific policy areas,
where the party gap is 20 points or more for half of the 22
issues measured.
The widest gap
is seen on the nation’s gun laws, with 56% of Republicans versus
12% of Democrats satisfied. But the gulf is nearly as wide for
the quality of the environment and the position of Black people
and other racial minorities in the nation -- both of which
receive higher satisfaction ratings from Republicans than
Democrats.
Slight
majorities of Republicans and Democrats are satisfied with the
position of gay and lesbian people in the country, as well as
with the quality of medical care. More than a third of
Republicans (35%) and Democrats (39%) are satisfied with the
availability of affordable healthcare, while they express much
less satisfaction with the nation’s efforts to deal with poverty
and homelessness.
This year’s
partisan differences -- with Democrats more satisfied on some
issues and Republicans more satisfied on others -- largely
balance each other out, resulting in similar average
satisfaction scores for both parties across all 22 issues. In
other words, partisans may be satisfied with different things,
but their overall reactions to the state of the nation are
similar. Democrats’ average satisfaction with all 22 issues is
38% (the same as independents’) and Republicans’ is 36%.
The average
societal ratings are also similar by party, with Democrats
averaging 39% satisfaction across the eight areas, independents
averaging 38% and Republicans 36%.
Bottom Line
Americans have
long desired more from government when it comes to addressing
the nation’s problems, whether that be policies pertaining to
energy, guns, the environment or education. Today’s average
issue satisfaction rating is tied with 2022’s for the lowest
Gallup has recorded in its measurements since 2001 but is not
vastly different from the past.
On the other
hand, Americans’ belief in some of the nation’s fundamental
merits has been shaken since the emergence of the pandemic and
the subsequent economic turmoil. Less than two-thirds are
satisfied with the quality of life today or with the opportunity
to get ahead through hard work, down from much higher levels as
recently as January 2020. Satisfaction with the nation’s system
of government and how it works has fallen even more
dramatically, from 68% in 2001 to 33% today, although much of
that decline occurred over the first decade. And satisfaction
ratings with government power, corporate power and income
inequality are all at or near their record lows.
People tuning in
to hear President Joe Biden deliver his State of the Union
address to Congress on Feb. 7 may be hoping his vision for the
country supports the return to prepandemic normalcy in the
economy, in civic affairs and in their ability to feel content
with their American life.
FEBRUARY 2, 2023
Source:
https://news.gallup.com/poll/469241/americans-glum-state-union-areas.aspx
780-43-16/Polls
Sports Gambling Growth Driven By Small Group Of Highly Engaged
Sports Fans
In the past few
years, legal sports betting has exploded as an industry in
certain states. Now, a new Ipsos poll finds that the industry’s
growth is on the back of a very small group of Americans. Fewer
than one in ten report placing official bets in the past year.
This group is very engaged with the sporting world and also
significantly more likely than the American public to favor
legalizing sports betting. In fact, only a third of Americans
are in favor of allowing online and in-person sports betting in
their state. While support is mixed, with another third unsure
how they feel about the issue, a majority do believe that people
should be able to gamble on sports and spend their money how
they want.
Detailed Findings
1. Fewer than
one in ten Americans have placed an official bet on a sporting
event.
2. One in three
Americans support legalizing sports betting both online and
in-person in their state. Public opinion is evenly split between
those who support legalizing betting, those who oppose, and
those who are unsure.
3. Americans are
split on how sports betting impacts the integrity of the game.
However, this does not register as main issue for most
Americans.
4. While a
majority of Americans support requiring sports franchises to be
more transparent about player injuries, they do not believe it
should come at the expense of players’ medical privacy.
1 February 2023
Source:
https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/sports-gambling-growth-driven-small-group-highly-engaged-sports-fans
780-43-17/Polls
How
Safe Do Women Feel In The Bogata
2022 closed with
20% more cases, which is why the capital created the purple
command.
"In all the stations you will find a woman with this purple
patrol button where you can file a complaint, we still have our
hotlines 155 and 123."
The command is
made up of 500 policewomen, the idea is to prevent violence and
facilitate complaints in addition to materializing arrest
warrants for non-compliance with restriction measures.
"We invite all women not to remain silent to report any abuse."
How safe do
women feel in the capital? CM& contracted a survey with the
Centro Nacional de Consultoría.
To the question,
are you afraid of walking alone through the streets of Bogotá
after 6 in the afternoon?
The place where
they feel most insecure is in the public space. The purple
command seeks to expedite the reaction and guarantee a rapid
response to complaints of gender-based violence or sexual
violence.
Ficha técnica
February 01,
2023
Source:
https://www.centronacionaldeconsultoria.com/en/post/how-safe-do-women-feel-in-the-capital
AUSTRALIA
780-43-18/Polls
ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Up 9.6pts To 83.4
In January
ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence was up 9.6pts to
83.4 in January.
The ANZ-Roy
Morgan Consumer Confidence Index in January bounced 9 points off
its record low in December to 83.4. Just like our Business
Outlook survey, some of the post-RBNZ shock appears
to have worn off. However, subdued card-spending data in
December suggests consumers may indeed be “cooling their jets”
as instructed.
While confidence
rose, it remains very low, and the softening labour market could
see the long-running disconnect between consumers’ stated
intentions and their actual spending decisions close.
Turning to the detail:
February 03,
2023
Source:
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9166-anz-roy-morgan-nz-consumer-confidence-january-2023
780-43-19/Polls
NSW
Voting Intention: ALP Increased Their Lead Over The L-NP To End
2022: ALP 55% Cf. L-NP 45%
This Roy Morgan
Poll on State voting intention was conducted via telephone and
online surveying with 1,446 New South Wales electors aged 18+
during the month of December 2022.
Primary voting intention shows the ALP and Coalition are level
on only 33.5%
Not since the
2007 New South Wales Election have both major parties failed to
secure a primary vote support of at least 40% in a New South
Wales State Election.
The support
increased for minor parties and independents in December with
support for the Greens rising 0.5% points to 12% while support
for ‘Other parties and independents’ was up 4.5% points to 21%.
Among the minor
parties support for One Nation is at 4.5% (down 0.5% points),
Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party is on 1.5% (up 1% point),
the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party is on 1% (down 0.5%
points), the Animal Justice Party is on 1% (up 0.5% points) the
Legalise Cannabis Party is on 1% (up 0.5% points), the Liberal
Democrats are on 0.5% (unchanged), ‘Teal Independents’ are 1%
(up 0.5% points) and another 10.5% (up 3% points) say they will
support other minor parties and independents.
Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says the latest Roy Morgan Poll
into NSW voting intention shows the ALP well on track to follow
up victories in the Federal and Victorian Elections in 2022 with
a victory at the NSW State Election due in late March:
“Roy Morgan began interviewing for State voting intention in New
South Wales in mid-2022 and the results for December show the
ALP on 55% with a commanding two-party preferred lead over the
Liberal-National Coalition Government on 45% – a gap of 10%
points.
“The ALP has been clearly ahead in each of the last four months
on a two-party preferred basis although the primary support for
both major parties is low at only 33.5% in December. Primary
vote support for both major parties dropped in December, but it
is the L-NP which is down significantly since the 2019 NSW
Election – by 8.1% points while the ALP is virtually unchanged
from 2019.
“The drop in support for the L-NP has mostly drifted to both the
Greens on 12% (up 2.4% points) and other minor parties and
independents on 21% (up 5.5% points). The latest results for
December show that around a third of the electorate plan to vote
for a non-major party candidate.
“The trends we see in NSW State polling echo the trends we saw
at last year’s Federal Election when the ALP won Government
despite receiving only 32.6% of the primary vote, even less than
the L-NP on 35.7%. Nearly a third of electors, 31.7%, voted for
a minor party or independents at last year’s Federal Election.
“Interviewing for this survey was completed in December before
the controversy surrounding Premier Dominic Perrottet’s decision
to dress in a Nazi uniform at his 21st birthday party
hit the headlines during mid-January.
“The results for the next period of surveying conducted this
month will be out in the next fortnight and will show whether
Perrottet’s decision to wear a Nazi uniform twenty years ago has
come back to bite him as he seeks to close the gap on the Chris
Minns-led Opposition over the last two months of the campaign.
“A victory for the ALP in New South Wales will mean wall-to-wall
Labor Governments on the Australian mainland with only the
three-term Tasmanian Liberal Government led by Premier Jeremy
Rockliff standing against a clean sweep of Australia’s nine
legislatures.”
For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or
Julian McCrann 0434 361 298 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
Question 1:
“If a State Election for New South Wales were being held today,
which party would receive your first preference?"
New South Wales Primary Voting Intention – Trends.
New South Wales Two-Party Preferred Voting Intention – Trends.
January 31, 2023
Source:
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9158-roy-morgan-survey-on-nsw-voting-intention-december-2022
MULTICOUNTRY STUDIES
780-43-20/Polls
Support For A Two-State Solution Among Palestinians And Israelis
Declines
Support for a
two-state solution among Palestinians and Israelis declines to
just one-third on each side, along with growing opposition to
the detailed items of a permanent peace agreement for
implementing a two-state solution.
Slightly more Israeli Jews support one unequal state under
Israeli rule than the two-state solution; but both publics still
prefer two states to any other democratic framework for
resolving the conflict. Pairs of reciprocal incentives can
raise support somewhat on both sides, showing some flexibility
particularly among the Israelis. But trust is declining to new
low points, and a majority of Palestinians reject four proposed
confidence building measures while a majority of Israelis
accepts half of them.
January 30, 2023
Source:
https://www.arabbarometer.org/2023/01/12419/
780-43-21/Polls
Africans Want Age Limits For Government Heads, A Survey Among 34
African Nations
Over the years,
some policy actors have blamed aspects of African countries’
development challenges on the advanced ages of their leaders,
though no theory or empirical evidence establishes such a
relationship (Anoba, 2018; Sackey, 2021). The elections of
Emmanuel Macron as president of France at age 39 (2017),
Sebastian Kurz as chancellor of Austria at age 31 (2017), and
Nayib Bukele as president of El Salvador at age 37 (2019) led
some democracy watchers to wonder when Africa – the world’s
youngest continent, with under35s making up about two-thirds of
the population – will produce youthful presidents (Alim, 2019;
Phekani, 2019). In all but one (Ethiopia) of the 28 African
countries that chose presidents or prime ministers during the
period 2018-2021, the winners were more than 50 years old (see
Table A.2 in the Appendix for details). In 19 countries, the
winners were above age 60, despite the participation of 27
under-50 candidates in those countries. As Nigeria prepares for
elections in February 2023, the National Youths Union of Nigeria
has reignited this discussion by calling on citizens to elect a
president who is less than 60 years of age (Sahara Reporters,
2022). The 2019/2021 Afrobarometer Round 8 survey in 34
countries asked Africans whether they think their countries
should have minimum and maximum age limits for heads of
government, and if so, what these limits should be. Findings
show that most Africans favour both minimum and maximum age
limits for their leaders, though their views on what those
limits should be vary greatly. Comparing the ages of incumbent
leaders to citizens’ proposed age limits and to countries’
official retirement ages, we find that heads of government have
exceeded average citizens’ maximum age limits in 15 of 34
countries, and have exceeded official retirement age in 23
countries. But citizens in 27 countries also tend to propose age
limits for heads of state that exceed the official retirement
age, suggesting that they aren’t opposed to retirement-age
leaders.
Key findings
§
On average across 34 countries,
three-quarters (76%) of Africans are in favour of a maximum age
limit for heads of government. About the same percentage (74%)
support minimum age limits for these chief public servants. o
Maximum age limits have majority support in all surveyed
countries, exceeding nine out of 10 citizens in Mali (95%),
Benin (94%), and Senegal (90%).
§
Citizens’ views on what the minimum and maximum age limits
should be vary widely. o For a minimum age limit, the
mean across 34 countries is 39 years, ranging from a low of 34
years in Morocco to a high of 42 years in Ghana, Guinea,
Namibia, and Tanzania. The modal (most frequently cited)
proposed minimum across 34 countries is 40 years, ranging from
30 years in the Gambia and Morocco to 40 years in 29 out of the
34 countries. o For a maximum age limit, the mean across 34
countries is 66 years, ranging from 58 years in Morocco to 72
years in Zimbabwe. The modal maximum age is 70 across the 34
countries.
§ Compared against
the mean and modal minimum age limits proposed by survey
respondents, the heads of governments in all 34 countries were
old enough to qualify for the office. However, assessed against
the mean maximum age limits proposed by citizens, heads of
government in 15 countries were too old at the time of the
survey to occupy their positions.
§ The ages of
incumbent heads of government at the time of the survey exceeded
their countries’ official retirement ages in 23 of the 34
surveyed countries.
§
However, the mean maximum age limits proposed by citizens were
higher than the official retirement age in 27 countries,
suggesting that despite strong support for age limits, many
citizens are quite generous with respect to how old their heads
of government can be. Do Africans support age limits for heads
of government2? Among the 34 countries that Afrobarometer
surveyed in 2019/2021, 28 have constitutional provisions for a
minimum age for presidents or prime ministers.3 In contrast,
only two set a maximum age limit, while incumbents in two other
countries, with the support of the legislatures, have managed to
abolish age limits to allow them to seek additional terms.4 When
citizens are asked directly, three-fourths of them say they
think their constitutions should provide for both minimum age
limits (74% on average across 34 countries) and maximum age
limits (75%) for their heads of government (Figure 1).
Support for both
types of age limits exceeds nine out of 10 citizens in Mali and
Benin. It is weakest in Morocco and Eswatini, but even there
half or more of all adults favour these limits. Countries
expressing strong support for minimum age limits tend to do the
same for maximum age limits. Eswatini and Lesotho are unusual in
that in both countries, maximum age limits are 11 percentage
points more popular than minimum age limits. Support for both
types of age limits is strong across key demographic groups
(Figure 2).
What should the
age limits be? When respondents who favour minimum and maximum
age limits for presidents or prime ministers are asked what they
think those limits should be, they offer a wide range of
suggestions. One way to examine the results is to look at the
proportions of respondents who favour certain age limits (Figure
3). For minimum age limits, 40 years is the most popular or
modal choice (20%), followed by 35 (11%), 30 (11%), 50 (9%), and
45 (8%). For a maximum, 70 years gets the most votes (i.e. is
the modal value) (18%), followed by 60 (16%) and a variety of
ages under 60 (15%). About one in 10 respondents who favour a
maximum age limit suggest it be set at 80 years (9%).
All countries
record a modal minimum age of 40 except Uganda, Kenya, and
Cameroon, which has a modal minimum age of 35, and Morocco and
the Gambia, with a modal minimum age of 30 (Figure 4). For the
maximum age, 21 countries record 70 years as the most common
response, while 60 years is the most common response in 11
countries.
Another way to
summarise citizens’ preferences with regard to a maximum age
limit is to look at what proportion is likely to endorse a given
age as a maximum limit (Figure 5). This assumes that a person
who supports a given maximum limit (e.g. 60 years) would also
endorse a higher maximum (e.g. 75 years) as preferable to having
no maximum at all. Thus, on average across 34 countries, while
only 31% would set the maximum limit at 60 years, a majority
(57%) would endorse a limit of 70 years.
Similarly, we
can consider what proportion think a given age is too young to
head a government. As shown in Figure 6, 73% of respondents
would set the minimum age at 18 years or higher, and a majority
(54%) would insist that a head of government be at least 35
years old. But only one in five (21%) would set the minimum age
at 45 years or higher.
Finally, a third
way to interpret the findings is to calculate mean minimum and
maximum ages for each country (Figure 7). The mean age is the
average of all the ages suggested by all respondents (excluding
those who did not want a minimum or maximum age, respectively).
The mean
(average) preferred minimum age across 34 countries is 39 years,
very similar to the modal (most popular) minimum age of 40
years. The means of citizens’ proposed minimum age limits range
from a low of 34 years in Morocco to a high of 42 years in
Ghana, Guinea, Tanzania, and Namibia. The mean proposed minimum
ages exceed 40 years in just seven countries. Across the 34
countries, the mean maximum age is 66 years. The mean maximums
range from 58 years in Morocco to 72 years in Zimbabwe, with
only six countries averaging 70 years or above. What proposed
age limits imply for each country’s current leadership To
examine what these proposed minimum and maximum ages would mean
for current heads of government, we compare them to each
leader’s age at the time of the Afrobarometer Round 8 survey. As
we can see in Figure 8, the leader’s age exceeded the mean
proposed minimum age in every country; the differences in years
are detailed in Figure 9. For instance, President Paul Biya of
Cameroon (the oldest) was 51 years older at the time of the
survey than the country’s mean minimum age limit for a
president, while Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali (the
youngest) was 8 years older. Thus, considered against the mean
minimum age limits suggested by citizens, all current heads of
governments in the 34 countries would be old enough to qualify
to occupy their positions. Heads of government are, however,
older than the preferred maximum age in 15 countries, by margins
ranging from one year (for President Ali Bongo Ondimba of Gabon)
to 22 years (for President Biya of Cameroon) (Figure 10).
Does support for
maximum age limits signal rejection of gerontocracy? We have
established strong public support for instituting maximum age
limits for heads of government and seen that 15 incumbents had
surpassed the mean preferred maximum at the time of the Round 8
surveys. Do these findings signal that Africans reject
gerontocracy? We explore this question by comparing countries’
mean preferred maximum age limits and incumbents’ ages at the
time of the survey to the countries’ mandatory ages of
retirement from active public service,5 as displayed in Figure
11.
At the time of
our surveys, 23 heads of government were older than their
country’s official retirement age. Margins range from one year
(for Ali Bongo of Gabon, Julius Maada Bio of Sierra Leone, and
the late John Magufuli of Tanzania) to 28 years for Cameroon’s
Biya (Figure 12).
Significantly,
in 27 countries, the mean proposed maximum age limits for heads
of government are higher than the official retirement ages.
Differences range from one year in Angola to 28 years in
Cameroon (Figure 13). In only five countries do the official
retirement
ages exceed the
average preferred maximum age limits for heads of government –
Lesotho, Morocco, Sudan, Ethiopia, and South Africa. These
findings indicate that citizens are quite generous with their
proposed maximum age limits. Africans’ support for age limits
for heads of government does not appear to signal a rejection of
older leaders.
Conclusion
Survey findings show that a large majority of Africans in 34
countries support the institution of minimum and maximum age
limits for heads of government, though their suggested age
limits vary widely. In most countries, the mean preferred
maximum age is higher than the country’s official retirement
age, suggesting that people are willing to let their heads of
government serve until an older age – but not indefinitely.
1 February 2023
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