Nearly one quarter (22%) of Canadians say they are completely out of money, saying there is no way they can pay more for household necessities, up 3 points since October, according to a new Ipsos poll conducted on behalf of Global News. Those in Ontario (25%) and Quebec (25%) are most likely to say they are completely tapped out, as are those with a household income of less than $40,000 per year (35%). Concerningly, women are nearly twice as likely as men (28% vs. 15%) to say there is no way that they can pay more for household necessities.

In addition to the 22% who cannot absorb any further rise in prices, another 32% say that when it comes to inflation and the rising cost of household necessities (food, clothing, transportation and shelter), they would have to make major changes to how they spend their money in order to pay for increased costs, up 2 points. This amounts to 54% of Canadians who would struggle to absorb further price increases into their budget, up 5 points since October. On the other hand, 13% say that they can easily absorb increased costs (unchanged) while 34% say that with some adjustments to how they spend their money, they can absorb increased costs (down 4 points).

Underscoring the financial anxieties of Canadians, many are worried about providing even the most basic necessities for their household:

Half (52%) are concerned (22% very/30% somewhat) that they might not have enough money to feed their family. While inflation rates are starting to come down, this proportion is down just 1 point since November. The concern is particularly widespread among parents with kids in the household (64%) women (58%), and those aged 18-34 (59%) and 35-54 (58%).
A majority (56%) remains concerned (20%/36% somewhat) that they might not be able to afford gasoline (down 5 points since November), with higher proportions of women (62%), 18–34-year-olds (64%) and parents (70%) saying this is the case.

More generally, two in three (68%) Canadians are concerned (31% very/37% somewhat) that interest rates will rise quicker than they can adjust (down 3 points), and once again the gender disparity between women (77%) and men (59%) is significant. Moreover, those 55+ (60%) are feeling this concern much less acutely than those aged 35-54 (72%) or 18-34 (73%). Regionally, those in Atlantic Canada (75%), Ontario (73%), Alberta (73%) and BC (72%) are much more concerned about this than those in Quebec (57%) or Saskatchewan and Manitoba (50%).

Eight in ten (81%) remain concerned (43% very/38% somewhat) that inflation will make everyday things less affordable for them, unchanged since November 2022. Those aged 35-54 (89%) are most likely to feel this way, followed by women (86%).

Clearly, the macroeconomic situation is trickling down to individual households, and most Canadians are feeling that their pocketbook is being pinched. The reality is that many may need to forego some of the things they want in order to be able to afford the things they need. Looking ahead to the summer, half (52%) are concerned (23% very/30% somewhat) that they might not be able to afford a holiday this summer (down 4 points from June 2022), rising to 57% among women, 65% among those aged 18-34, and 66% among parents with kids in their household.

(Ipsos Canada)

25 January 2023

Source: https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/growing-proportion-of-canadians-are-completely-out-money

SUMMARY OF POLLS

ASIA

(Pakistan)

51% Pakistanis Report At Least Some Level Of Confidence In Politicians

According to a survey conducted by Gallup & Gilani Pakistan, Half of Pakistanis report at least some level of confidence in politicians. A nationally representative sample of adult men and women from across the country was asked the following question regarding, “Please indicate how confident you are in the following: - In politicians?” 13% said they’re completely confident, 20% said they are somewhat confident, 18% reported slight confidence while 44% said they are not at all confident in politicians while 5% did not respond or said that they did not know.

(Gallup Pakistan)

January 24, 2023

Amongst Different Working Professionals, 87% Pakistanis Report Having At Least Some Level Of Confidence In Those Working In The Army

A nationally representative sample of adult men and women from across the country was asked the following question regarding, “Please indicate how confident you are in the following?” When asked about lawyers, 17% said they’re completely confident, 27% said they are somewhat confident, 11% reported slight confidence while 32% said they are not at all confident in lawyers whereas 14% did not respond or said that they did not know. When asked about doctors, 43% said they’re completely confident, 33% said they are somewhat confident, 11% reported slight confidence while 11% said they are not at all confident in doctors while 1% did not respond or said that they did not know.

(Gallup Pakistan)

January 27, 2023

AFRICA

(Nigeria)

Nigerians Want The Government To Focus Mainly On Security, Job Creation And Education In 2023

A new public opinion poll released by NOIPolls has revealed the top three key areas adult Nigerians want the government to focus its attention on in 2023 are security (49 percent), job creation (39 percent), education (35 percent). Other areas include Electricity (33 percent), Reduction in high cost of goods and services (29 percent), Infrastructure (27 percent), Agriculture (18 percent) and Health (17 percent) amongst other key areas mentioned.

(NOI Polls)

January 24, 2023

(Angola)

Angolans Approve Of Government’s Pandemic Response But Say Aid To Households Inadequate

As of February-March 2022, a quarter (25%) of Angolans said that a member of their household had lost a job, business, or primary source of income due to the pandemic, and 7% said a household member had become ill with COVID-19 or tested positive for the virus. Almost nine in 10 (86%) Angolan adults said they had received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine. Only one in 20 (5%) said they were unlikely to try to get vaccinated.

(Afrobarometer)

24 January 2023

(Ghana)

Child Welfare In Ghana: Citizens Say Government Is Not Doing Enough

A majority (58%) of Ghanaians say parents are “sometimes” or “always” justified in using physical force to discipline their children. But opposition to physical discipline increased by 12 percentage points between 2016 and 2022 (from 30% to 42%). Two-thirds (67%) of respondents say the use of physical force to discipline children is not very common in their community. Abused, neglected, and out-of-school children: Most Ghanaians say child abuse and neglect (81%) and out-of-school children (69%) are infrequent problems in their community.

(Afrobarometer)

25 January 2023

WEST EUROPE

(UK)

Three Quarters Of Britons Support Wealth Taxes On Millionaires

YouGov tested two proposals for long-term wealth taxation, along with a further proposal for a one-off wealth tax. In principle, most Britons support a wealth tax, especially when the threshold for paying the tax is high. Around three quarters would support a wealth tax of 2% on wealth over £5 million (73%), and of 1% on wealth over £10 million (78%). Both proposals draw cross party support, with seven in ten Conservative (69%) voters supporting the former, and 77% supporting the latter, along with 83% and 86% of Labour voters respectively.

(YouGov UK)

January 23, 2023

Women Are Nearly Twice As Likely To Consider Themselves To Be Superstitious Compared To Men

Do you think it's unlucky to walk under a ladder, or good luck to find a four-leaf clover? You're not alone in being superstitious, according to the results of a new YouGov Realtime survey, which reveals that a third of Britons (34%) say they are either “very” or “somewhat” superstitious. The survey also discovered that women are significantly more likely to be superstitious than men, with 43% of women saying they were either very or somewhat superstitious compared to just 24% of men.

(YouGov UK)

January 24, 2023

Six In Ten Britons Believe Defacing Art Or Monuments Should Be A Criminal Offence

Around three in ten Britons (28%), however, say they would be against making the defacing of art or public monuments a criminal offence, including 18% who are in strong opposition. While the youngest Britons (18-24 year olds) are divided 38% in favour and 35% against, support grows with each older age group, with those aged 65 and above the most likely to back the rules at 75%.

(YouGov UK)

January 26, 2023

The NHS Overtakes The Economy And Inflation As The Most Mentioned Issue Facing Britain

The January 2023 Ipsos Issues Index reveals that concerns about the health service have displaced economic matters as the most mentioned important issue facing the country. Forty-two per cent of Britons say the NHS is a big issue for Britain, an increase of fifteen percentage points since last month and the highest score since February 2020, immediately before the COVID-19 pandemic. This month is also the first time the NHS has topped the Issues Index since the February 2020 edition.

(Ipsos MORI)

25 January 2023

6 In 10 Say Prince Harry Should Be Invited To The Coronation Of King Charles III

New research from Ipsos reveals that 60% of Britons think Prince Harry, the Duke of Sussex, should be invited to the coronation of King Charles in May (40% say he definitely should, 20% that he probably should). Thirty per cent think he should not (21% say definitely not). A clear majority (69%) of under 55s think he should be invited, although older people are not quite so sure – 47% of those aged 55+ think he should be invited, 42% think not.

(Ipsos MORI)

27 January 2023

(Germany)

GenZ Trusts The Banks, But At The Same Time Sees The Future In Cryptocurrency

The GenZ currently has rather limited financial resources at its disposal: a fifth (20 percent) have less than €500 a month, while this is the case for only 15 percent of the total population. The majority of these young consumers (74 percent) plan to save more money over the next year, and more than half (52 percent) are looking for profitable ways to invest their money. Almost half of 18-24 year olds (47 percent) trust banks and financial services, but at the same time 47 percent believe that cryptocurrencies, and thus an unbanked financial system, are the future of online financial transactions.

(YouGov Germany)

January 25, 2023

NORTH AMERICA

(USA)

The Challenge Of Healthcare Reform

Recent Gallup research measuring Americans’ views of healthcare shows what I consider a complex picture, but there is enough evidence of perceived problems to suggest that continuing efforts to improve healthcare cost, coverage, access and quality are warranted. The challenge is how to go about it. Few Americans (1%-3% over Gallup’s past seven surveys) mention healthcare as the nation’s top problem, and the percentage who say the U.S. healthcare system today is in a state of crisis or has major problems is no higher than it has been at previous points over the past two decades.

(Gallup)

JANUARY 27, 2023

Biden Averaged 41% Job Approval In His Second Year

President Joe Biden averaged 41% job approval during his second year in office, which spanned Jan. 20, 2022, through Jan. 19, 2023. Among post-World War II presidents elected to their first term, only Donald Trump had a lower second-year average, but just barely, at 40.4%. Many other recent presidents, including Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, had approval ratings below 50% in their second years. John Kennedy and George W. Bush were the most popular second-year presidents, averaging better than 70% job approval.

(Gallup)

JANUARY 25, 2023

How Today’s Parents Say Their Approach To Parenting Does – Or Doesn’t – Match Their Own Upbringing

Overall, roughly as many U.S. parents say they are raising their children similarly to how they were raised (43%) as say they are trying to take a different approach (44%). About one-in-ten parents (12%) say they’re neither trying to raise their children similarly to nor differently from how they were raised. Among parents who say they are raising their children similarly to how they were raised, 63% mentioned something having to do with values and religion when asked to elaborate. Parents who say they are raising their children in a different way than they were raised were less likely to focus on this theme (13% mentioned it).

(PEW)

JANUARY 24, 2023

How Good Is AI At Writing Survey Questions

There’s been a lot of hype around things like crypto, NFTs, the metaverse, Goncharov and drinking liquid nitrogen candy to blow “dragon breath” out of your ears. But this sort of AI technology is the most likely, in my opinion, to have a long-term impact on our daily lives and work. So, we asked ChatGPT to write a survey about public opinion related to AI and its uses and effectiveness. Most people believe they are familiar with the concept of AI. About three in four said they’re familiar, with 18% saying they were very familiar. Then we asked the AI for an agree-disagree battery and again, it gave us a good starting point. Some well-trained humans at Ipsos massaged the questions, and the resulting data showed that people are still a little skeptical, but not all that skeptical of AI.

(Ipsos USA)

23 January 2023

(Canada)

Growing Proportion (22%, +3) Of Canadians Are “Completely Out Of Money,” Saying There Is No Way They Can Pay More For Household Necessities

(Ipsos Canada)

25 January 2023

Seven-In-Ten Say PM Should Have Taxpayer-Funded Residence; Less Support For Other Political Figures

As the National Capital Commission prepares to begin abatement work on 24 Sussex Drive this spring, the future of the prime minister’s official residence – not occupied by one since 2015 – is in serious doubt. The federal government has yet to decide what to do with the dilapidated dwelling of the prime minister. However, new data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds half of Canadians (50%) oppose renovating 24 Sussex at the estimated cost of $36 to $38 million. Still, a plurality (41%) believe that to be the best solution, while a further third (33%) say it’s best to knock it down and build a modern home and office for the prime minister.

(Angus Reid Institute)

January 23, 2023

Canadians Strongly Support COVID-19 Test Requirement For Travellers From China, But Also Question Its Efficacy

China abandoning its COVID zero strategy has caused a ripple of concern around the globe as the world’s second-most populous country faces an unprecedented wave of infections affecting as many as four-in-five people. Data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds a majority of Canadians supportive of this policy, but unsure if it will be effective at reducing the spread of COVID-19 in their country. Indeed, Canadians who support the policy (77%) outnumber those who are opposed (16%) by nearly five-to-one.

(Angus Reid Institute)

January 24, 2023

AUSTRALIA

Nearly Two-Thirds Of Australians (64%) Say January 26 Should Be Known As ‘Australia Day’, Virtually Unchanged On A Year Ago

A special Roy Morgan SMS Poll into attitudes towards January 26 shows a clear majority of 64% of Australians now say the date should be known as ‘Australia Day’ – virtually unchanged from a year ago. This compares to the just over a third, 36% that say it should be called ‘Invasion Day’ according to a special Roy Morgan SMS Poll conducted with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,231 Australians aged 18+ on the weekend from Friday January 20 to Monday January 23, 2023.

(Roy Morgan)

January 24, 2023

‘Mortgage Stress’ Increases To Highest Since July 2013; 23.9% Of Mortgage Holders Now ‘At Risk’

For the first time in this cycle of interest rate increases the proportion of mortgage holders now considered ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress (23.9%) is above the long-term average of 22.8% stretching back to early 2007. However, despite the sharp increase in the level of mortgage stress during the last year the overall number remains well below the high reached during the Global Financial Crisis in early 2009 of 35.6% (1,455,000 mortgage holders).

(Roy Morgan)

January 27, 2023

MULTICOUNTRY STUDIES

The Age Of The Grandparent Has Arrived, A Survey Among 10 Nations

Today, as the once-cherubic choristers start to become grandmas and grandpas themselves, grandparenting has changed dramatically. We found that there are 1.5bn grandparents in the world, up from 0.5bn in 1960 (though the further back one goes, the fuzzier the estimates become). As a share of the population, they have risen from 17% to 20%. And the ratio of grandparents to children under 15 has vaulted from 0.46 in 1960 to 0.8 today.

(The Economist)

January 12, 2023

Source: https://www.economist.com/international/2023/01/12/the-age-of-the-grandparent-has-arrived

Many Countries In Europe Get A New Government At Least Every Two Years, A Survey Among 23 Countries

To find out, Pew Research Center consulted ParlGov – a clearinghouse for cross-national political information – and calculated the median length of government in the 22 parliamentary member states of the European Union, as well as the UK, from the end of World War II through the end of 2022. Overall, most of the European countries analyzed have seen changes in government at least once every two years. But governments in Belgium, Finland and Italy often haven’t lasted even a single year. In these countries, the median length of government since World War II has been less than 365 days – far less than the full constitutional terms afforded to a new government.

(PEW)

JANUARY 25, 2022

Source: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2023/01/25/many-countries-in-europe-get-a-new-government-at-least-every-two-years/?utm_source=Pew+Research+Center&utm_campaign=a906383bd6-Global_2023_01_27&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_-a906383bd6-%5BLIST_EMAIL_ID%5D

Global Agreement On The Need To Fight Climate Change, A 36-Country Survey

WIN International, the world’s leading association in market research and polling, has published the Annual WIN World Survey – WWS 2022 – exploring the views and beliefs of 29,739 individuals among citizens from 36 countries across the globe. There are many issues related to the future that people worry about. According to the survey, one of the main concerns for citizens worldwide is their personal or household economy (30%), followed by the economic situation of their countries (23%).

(WIN)

29 Jan 2023

Source: https://winmr.com/global-agreement-on-the-need-to-fight-climate-change/

ASIA

779-43-01/Polls

51% Pakistanis Report At Least Some Level Of Confidence In Politicians

When the rural-urban breakdown for the responses is analyzed, it can be seen that 7% more people from urban areas are not at all confident in politicians than rural areas as 42% from rural and 49% from urban areas reported having no confidence in politicians.

Analysis of the provincial breakdown shows that the highest percentage of people who have no confidence in politicians was from Sindh as 53% reported that, followed by Punjab with 45% saying they had no confidence in politicians, which was followed by KPK with 40% saying so. The least number of people who reported having no confidence in politicians was from Balochistan as 30% said so.

(Gallup Pakistan)

January 24, 2023

Source: https://gallup.com.pk/wp/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/24-Jan_merged.pdf

779-43-02/Polls

Amongst Different Working Professionals, 87% Pakistanis Report Having At Least Some Level Of Confidence In Those Working In The Army

According to a survey conducted by Gallup & Gilani Pakistan, amongst different working professionals, Pakistanis have the most confidence in those working in the army as 87% report having at least some level of confidence in those working in the army.

A nationally representative sample of adult men and women from across the country was asked the following question regarding, “Please indicate how confident you are in the following?”

When asked about lawyers, 17% said they’re completely confident, 27% said they are somewhat confident, 11% reported slight confidence while 32% said they are not at all confident in lawyers whereas 14% did not respond or said that they did not know.

When asked about doctors, 43% said they’re completely confident, 33% said they are somewhat confident, 11% reported slight confidence while 11% said they are not at all confident in doctors while 1% did not respond or said that they did not know.

When asked about scientists, 32% said they’re completely confident, 29% said they are somewhat confident, 7% reported slight confidence while 25% said they are not at all confident in scientists while 7% did not respond or said that they did not know.

When asked about teachers, 52% said they’re completely confident, 32% said they are somewhat confident, 6% reported slight confidence while 9% said they are not at all confident in teachers while 1% did not respond or said that they did not know.

When asked about government ministers, 13% said they’re completely confident, 23% said they are somewhat confident, 17% reported slight confidence while 43% said they are not at all confident in Government Ministers while 4% did not respond or said that they did not know.

When asked about politicians, 13% said they’re completely confident, 20% said they are somewhat confident, 18% reported slight confidence while 44% said they are not at all confident in politicians while 5% did not respond or said that they did not know.

When asked about property dealers, 12% said they’re completely confident, 21% said they are somewhat confident, 17% reported slight confidence while 31% said they are not at all confident in property dealers whereas 19% did not respond or said that they did not know.

When asked about those working in the army, 64% said they’re completely confident, 20% said they are somewhat confident, 3% reported slight confidence while 9% said they are not at all confident in those working in the army whereas 4% did not respond or said that they did not know.

Question: “Please indicate how confident you are in the following?”

(Gallup Pakistan)

January 27, 2023

Source: https://gallup.com.pk/post/34053

AFRICA

779-43-03/Polls

Nigerians Want The Government To Focus Mainly On Security, Job Creation And Education In 2023

Regarding security, Nigeria has been plagued by several incidences of armed banditry and social unrest among other issues. The situation has worsened with even the supposedly untouchable people in the society being attacked by unruly elements daily. Nigerians residing in the North-West region are the worst hit and have experienced devastating attacks from armed bandits for a long time. Armed bandits usually kidnap unsuspecting members of the public before using their captives to secure huge ransoms in return for their release. Hundreds of people have been kidnapped and millions of naira demanded in ransom for their release thereby putting families of the kidnapped victims in great distress and confusion. Security analysts attributed the rising insecurity across the country to the lack of prosecution of arrested suspects, ease of getting firearms and the rising unemployment rate in the country[1].

On job creation, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), unemployment rate in Nigeria increased to 33.30 percent in the fourth quarter of 2020 from 27.10 percent in the second quarter of 2020[2]. Also, data shows that Nigeria’s youth unemployment, which refers to the share of the labour force ages 15-24 without work but available for and seeking employment, rate for 2021 was 19.61%, a 0.06% decline from 2020[3]. In line with the above data report, Nigerians advocated that the government should focus its attention on creating jobs in 2023.

With regards to education, the sector was mostly on news in the better part of 2022 following the long strike declared by the Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU) in February which last for over seven months. With these challenges, it is indeed imperative for the government to expedite action in the areas enumerated by Nigerians to ameliorate the sufferings Nigerians are facing so that everyone will experience prosperity in the year 2023 as every Nigerian looks forward to improvements in their lives. These are some of the key highlights from the New Year Poll conducted in the week commencing January 9^th, 2023.

Survey Background

The New Year celebration is a major celebrated event in the country succeeding the yuletide celebration. The celebration is usually occasioned by carnivals, traditional dances, sharing of gifts and many more to mark the New Year. Most of the time, people see it as an opportunity to thank God for sparing their lives into the New Year while others see it as a time to start afresh and take certain trajectories in their lives. Also, many see it as an opportunity to make resolutions towards certain goals of their lives and seek to pursue it with vigour and determination. Against this backdrop, NOIPolls conducted a survey to gauge the perception of Nigerians regarding their expectations for the year 2023.

Survey Findings

Thesurvey result revealed that the top three areas Nigerians want the government to focus its attention on in 2023 are security (49 percent), job creation (39 percent) and education (35 percent) amongst other key areas.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the poll result shows that Nigerians want the government to focus its attention mostly on security, job creation and education in 2023. Therefore, it is expected that the government will yield to these yearnings of the masses and focus its attention on these critical areas in 2023. This is an important task the citizens are asking the government to embark upon in the New Year to ameliorate the challenges citizens are facing. It remains to be seen if the government will take up this dutiful task and bring about the much-needed change in the country.

(NOI Polls)

January 24, 2023

Source: https://noi-polls.com/new-year-poll/

779-43-04/Polls

Angolans Approve Of Government’s Pandemic Response But Say Aid To Households Inadequate

Angola reported its first COVID-19 case on 21 March 2020, and has since recorded 105,095 cases and 1,930 deaths due to the virus (World Health Organization, 2023). The government’s efforts to contain the pandemic included restricting entry into Angola by people from countries with high rates of COVID-19 infection and declaring states of emergency and calamity with partial lockdowns. Security forces charged with enforcing lockdown restrictions were accused of numerous human rights abuses, including killings and arbitrary arrests (Human Rights Watch, 2020). The case of Silvio Dala, a young doctor who died in police custody after being stopped for not wearing a mask in his car, led to widespread protests against police violence (Hossi & Anderson, 2020). To mitigate the pandemic’s economic impacts, the government provided cash transfers, food, and health products for some households and capital and credit for businesses (UNCTAD, 2021). But critics complained about political partisanship and a lack of transparency in the distribution of government assistance (Amnesty International, 2020). Angola was the first country in East and Southern Africa to receive COVID-19 vaccines through the COVAX initiative (IOL, 2021) and began rolling out a vaccination campaign in early March 2021. As of January 2023, more than 15 million Angolans (46% of the population) had received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine. Findings from the latest Afrobarometer survey, in early 2022, show that one-fourth of households lost a primary source of income because of the pandemic, but only about half as many received relief assistance from the government. Overall, a majority of Angolans approved of the government’s handling of the pandemic, but many criticised its provision of relief assistance and said resources intended for the COVID-19 response were lost to corruption. Most respondents said they had received a COVID-19 vaccine or were likely to do so.

Key findings § Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic: o As of February-March 2022, a quarter (25%) of Angolans said that a member of their household had lost a job, business, or primary source of income due to the pandemic, and 7% said a household member had become ill with COVID-19 or tested positive for the virus. § Attitudes toward vaccines: o Almost nine in 10 (86%) Angolan adults said they had received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine. Only one in 20 (5%) said they were unlikely to try to get vaccinated. § Government response to COVID-19: o Overall, almost two-thirds (64%) of Angolans said the government was doing “fairly well” or “very well” in managing the response to the COVID-19 pandemic. o But fewer than half were satisfied with the government’s performance in ensuring that health facilities are adequately resourced (48%), in minimising disruptions to children’s education (42%), and in providing relief assistance to vulnerable households (37%). o Only 12% of respondents said their households received relief assistance from the government. Majorities said that the distribution of relief assistance was unfair (60%) and that “some” or “a lot” of the resources intended for the COVID-19 response were lost to corruption (53%). o More than half (55%) of citizens considered it justified for the government to use the police or military to enforce public health mandates during a pandemic. But majorities rejected censoring the media (57%) and postponing elections (75%) as justified responses during a public health emergency. § Looking ahead: o More than four in 10 citizen (44%) said the government is not prepared to deal with future public health emergencies. o Half (49%) of Angolans said the government needs to invest more in such preparations, even if it means fewer resources are available for other health services. Effects of COVID-19 As of February-March 2022, 7% of Angolans said someone in their household had become ill with COVID-19 or tested positive for the virus, and 25% said a household member had lost a job, business, or primary source of income due to the pandemic (Figure 1).

The effects of COVID-19 appear to have been more widely experienced in cities than in rural areas. Urbanites were roughly twice as likely as rural residents to report that a household member had lost an income source (29% vs. 17%) or become ill with or tested positive for COVID-19 (9% vs. 4%) (Figure 2). The frequency of both income loss and COVID-19 infection increased sharply with respondents’ level of education. While only 2% of those with no formal education reported illness or a positive COVID-19 test, 11 times as many (22%) of those with post-secondary qualifications did. And 29%-30% of respondents with secondary or post-secondary education reported the loss of a major income source, compared to 18% of those with primary schooling or less. Reported COVID-19 cases in the household were also more common among those experiencing moderate, low, or no lived poverty (10%-11%) than among those with high lived poverty (4%). 1

Attitudes toward vaccination Almost nine in 10 (86%) Angolan adults said they had received at least one dose of a COVID19 vaccine (Figure 3). More than half of the remaining respondents said they were “somewhat likely” (4%) or “very likely” (4%) to try to get vaccinated, while only one in 20 said they were “very unlikely” (3%) or “somewhat unlikely” (2%) to do so (Figure 4). High self-reported vaccination rates reflect Angola’s hard-nosed vaccination campaign, which made vaccination mandatory for adults and conditioned entry to workplaces and other public establishments on proof of vaccination (Xinhuanet, 2021) while perhaps also making unvaccinated adults disinclined to admit their status.

Self-reported vaccination rates were higher among men (90%) and urban residents (90%) than among women (83%) and rural residents (79%) (Figure 5). They increased steeply with respondents’ education levels, ranging from 73% of those with no formal schooling to 97% of those with post-secondary education. Vaccine hesitancy (somewhat/very unlikely to try to get vaccinated) was fairly low across key demographic groups, peaking at 9% among respondents over age 55 and those with no formal education.

Among citizens who said they were unlikely to get vaccinated, the most commonly cited reason was the belief that COVID-19 is not real. Even though an overwhelming majority of Angolan adults said they had received a COVID19 vaccination, fewer than half (42%) said they trust the government “somewhat” or “a lot” to ensure the safety of COVID-19 vaccines, while more expressed “just a little” trust (26%) or no trust at all (26%) (Figure 6). Citizens’ willingness to get vaccinated against COVID-19 is correlated with their trust in the government’s ability to ensure the safety of the vaccine. Among those who said they trust the government “somewhat” or “a lot,” 94% said they had received the vaccine, compared to 75% of those who said they don’t trust the government at all (Figure 7).

Government response to COVID-19 While trust in the government’s ability to ensure vaccine safety was relatively weak, almost two-thirds (64%) of Angolans described the government overall performance in managing the response to the COVID-19 pandemic as “fairly” or “very” good, while 29% said it is doing a poor job (Figure 8). On specific aspects of the COVID-19 response, however, assessments were considerably more critical (Figure 9). Fewer than half (48%) said they were “fairly satisfied” or “very satisfied” with the government’s efforts to ensure that health facilities are adequately resourced to deal with the pandemic, and only 42% praised the government’s effectiveness in keeping disruptions of children’s education to a minimum. A majority (53%) said they were “not very satisfied” or “not at all satisfied” with the government’s provision of relief assistance to vulnerable households.

COVID-19 relief assistance About one in eight Angolans (12%) reported that their households received COVID-19 relief assistance from the government, while 85% said they did not (Figure 10). Rural households were twice as likely to benefit from government assistance as those in urban areas (18% vs. 9%) (Figure 11). Respondents with no formal education (17%) were more likely to report having received assistance than their more educated counterparts (9% -13%), but citizens’ level of lived poverty made no difference. Six in 10 citizens (60%) said that COVID-19 relief was distributed “somewhat unfairly” or “very unfairly,” echoing reports that some aid was distributed along political party lines (Amnesty International, 2020). Only 26% described the distribution as fair (Figure 12).

Corruption related to COVID-19 In addition to expressing dissatisfaction with the fairness of government relief assistance, more than half (53%) of Angolans said they believe that “some” or “a lot” of the resources intended for the COVID-19 response were lost to corruption. Only about one in 10 (9%) thought that none of these resources were embezzled (Figure 13).

Limit democratic freedoms during a pandemic? Lockdowns and other pandemic-related restrictions in some countries have raised questions about the extent to which citizens are willing to forego certain freedoms, even temporarily, to protect public health. In Angola, more than half (55%) of citizens “agreed” or “strongly agreed” that it is justified for the government to use the armed forces or the police to enforce public health mandates during an emergency like the pandemic (Figure 14). But only small minorities considered it acceptable to censor media reporting (21%) or postpone elections (13%) in response to a public health emergency.

Looking ahead After experiencing the COVID-19 pandemic, how prepared will Angola’s government be to deal with future public health emergencies? Angolans offered mixed views on their government’s preparedness (Figure 15). Almost half (46%) were optimistic that their government will be prepared for the next public health crisis, but nearly as many (44%) disagreed. In line with these mixed views, half (49%) of Angolans “agreed” or “strongly agreed” that the government needs to invest more in preparing for future public health emergencies, even if it means that fewer resources are available for other health services (Figure 16).

Conclusion Overall, Angolans pronounce themselves satisfied with their government’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and express little resistance to being vaccinated. But their responses also point to areas for improvement, most prominently the provision of assistance to vulnerable households. A majority of citizens also believe that corruption reduced the resources available to address the pandemic and that the government needs to invest more in preparations for the next public health emergency.

(Afrobarometer)

24 January 2023

Source: https://www.afrobarometer.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/AD595-Angolans-approve-of-pandemic-response-but-say-aid-inadequate-Afrobarometer-25jan23-.pdf

779-43-05/Polls

Child Welfare In Ghana: Citizens Say Government Is Not Doing Enough

In 1990, Ghana became the first country in the world to ratify the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child. A generation later, the country has a full legal and policy arsenal designed to protect children from all forms of violence and neglect, ranging from the Children’s Act (1998) and Child and Family Welfare Policy (2015) to the Justice for Children Policy (2015) and the Cybersecurity Act (2020). But the country faces persistent challenges to the welfare of its children. While citing progress on birth registration and school enrolment, UNICEF (2021) reports that nearly one-fifth of Ghanaian children are victims of severe physical punishment, and the same proportion are engaged in child labour. Close to nine out of 10 suffer psychological aggression, and about three out of four children are considered “multidimensionally poor,” meaning they are deprived in multiple aspects of child well-being (e.g. nutrition, health, child protection, etc.) And inadequate funding prevents local Department of Social Welfare and Community Development staff from fully meeting their charge of providing services to those who are vulnerable and have suffered from abuse, neglect, or exploitation; in 2019, only three of 16 regions had more than half of the minimum required staff (UNICEF, 2020). This dispatch reports on a special survey module included in the Afrobarometer Round 9 (2021/2023) questionnaire to explore Africans’ attitudes and perceptions related to child welfare. In Ghana, survey findings show that while a majority of Ghanaians support the use of physical force to discipline children, opposition to this practice has increased significantly since 2016. Most citizens say child abuse and neglect are infrequent problems in their community. But fewer than half say that support services are available in their community for abused or neglected children, for children with disability, and for children and adults with mental or emotional problems. And a majority of Ghanaians are not satisfied with the government’s performance on child welfare. Poor citizens are particularly unlikely to say that help is available and that the government is doing a good job of protecting and promoting the well-being of vulnerable children.

Key findings Disciplining children: § A majority (58%) of Ghanaians say parents are “sometimes” or “always” justified in using physical force to discipline their children. But opposition to physical discipline increased by 12 percentage points between 2016 and 2022 (from 30% to 42%). § Two-thirds (67%) of respondents say the use of physical force to discipline children is not very common in their community. Abused, neglected, and out-of-school children: § Most Ghanaians say child abuse and neglect (81%) and out-of-school children (69%) are infrequent problems in their community. o Young respondents and poor citizens are more likely than older and better-off citizens to see child abuse and neglect as widespread problems. Availability of support services for vulnerable children: § Fewer than half of Ghanaians say resources are available in their community to help abused and neglected children (43%) and children with disability (42%). Only 36% say children and adults with mental or emotional problems can usually get help. o The poor are considerably less likely than better-off citizens to report that support services for vulnerable children are available in their community. Government performance on child welfare: § About one-third (36%) of Ghanaians say the government is doing a good job of protecting and promoting the well-being of vulnerable children, but nearly two-thirds disagree. o Poor and/or unschooled citizens are least satisfied with the government’s performance on child welfare. Disciplining a child Discipline is an integral part of raising children. But should the use of physical force to discipline children be considered appropriate or abusive? A majority (58%)1 of Ghanaians believe it is “sometimes justified” (44%) or “always justified” (13%) for parents to use physical force to discipline their children. But the proportion of Ghanaians who say this practice is “never justified” increased from 30% in 2016 to 42% in 2022 (Figure 1). This development coincides with the Ministry of Education’s 2017 ban on the use of physical force as a disciplinary measure in schools (B&FTonline, 2021).

Women are somewhat more likely than men to endorse the use of physical force to discipline children (60% vs. 55% who say it is at least sometimes justified) (Figure 2). Approval of the practice is also more common among rural residents (60%) and older citizens (62%) than among urban residents (56%) and youth (55%-58%).

Less educated respondents (63%-65%) are more likely to support physical discipline than those with secondary (55%) or post-secondary (50%) education. Similarly, poor citizens (64%) are more supportive of using physical force to discipline children than their well-off counterparts (54%).2 In practice, almost seven in 10 Ghanaians say that adults in their community do “not very frequently” (36%) or “not at all frequently” (31%) use physical force to discipline children (Figure 3), though more than three in 10 see this as a “somewhat frequent” (23%) or “very frequent” (10%) occurrence.

Rural residents are slightly more likely than their urban counterparts to report that people in their community use physical force to discipline children (35% vs. 31%) (Figure 4). This perception decreases as respondents’ education level rises, ranging from 44% among those with no formal schooling to 28% among those with higher education. Young respondents (36%) are more likely than their elders (30%-34%) to report that children are frequently disciplined using physical force.

Abuse and neglect Asked how often they think children in their community are abused, mistreated, or neglected, fully four out of five Ghanaians (81%) say this is “not at all frequent” (41%) or “not very frequent” (40%), while 18% report that abuse and neglect are “somewhat” or “very” common (Figure 5). Almost seven in 10 (69%) also say it’s not common to see school-age children who are not in school, though three in 10 respondents (31%) disagree. The youngest respondents are significantly more likely than their elders to see child abuse and neglect as frequent problems in their community (Figure 6). Among 18- to 25-year-olds, 25% say abuse, mistreatment, and neglect of children are “somewhat” or “very” frequent, compared to 15% of respondents over age 45. Similarly, while 30% of those over age 35 say children are frequently not in school, 35% of the youngest respondents report this problem. Residents in cities and rural settlements are about equally likely to report child abuse and neglect as a frequent problem. But concern about out-of-school children is significantly higher in rural settlements (37%) than in cities (26%) (Figure 7). The perception of child abuse and neglect as a widespread problem is also higher among poor respondents, ranging from 14% of the well-off to 27% of those experiencing high lived poverty. A 15-point gap separates the well-off from the poor when it comes to the issue of out-of-school children (32% vs. 47%) (Figure 8).

Support for vulnerable children For children facing major challenges, support services can be crucial in preparing them for full, successful lives. To what extent are such services available at the community level? Based on Afrobarometer field teams’ observations in all enumeration areas they visited, most Ghanaians live within walking distance of a school (95%) and a health clinic (66%) (Figure 9). One-third (35%) have a police station nearby, while only 21% have a nearby social centre or other government office where people can request help with problems.

Citizens’ assessments are mixed when it comes to the availability of more specialised support services in the community (Figure 10). Fewer than half (43%) say people in their community are generally able to get help for children who have been abused, mistreated, or neglected; just as many (43%) say they are not. Results are similar with regard to support for children with disability: 42% of respondents say support is available, while 45% say it is not. And only about one-third (36%) of citizens say children and adults with mental or emotional problems are able to get help in the community, while 49% say such services are not available.

Men and women hold similar views on these questions, and assessments of the availability of support services vary only slightly by respondents’ education levels. But poor citizens are less likely than their well-off counterparts to report available support for abused and neglected children (a 9-point gap), disabled children (7 points), and people with mental or emotional problems (3 points) (Figure 11).

Government performance on child welfare Overall, a majority of Ghanaians offer a negative assessment of the government’s efforts to protect and promote the well-being of vulnerable children: 62% say it is doing a “fairly bad” or “very bad” job, while only 36% believe it is doing “fairly well” or “very well” (Figure 12). Women (34%) and rural residents (34%) are slightly less likely to approve of the government’s performance on child welfare than are men (38%) and urban dwellers (37%) (Figure 13). But the poorest Ghanaians (25%) and the least educated citizens (26%) are far less likely than better-off and more educated respondents to say the government is doing a good job of protecting and promoting the welfare of vulnerable children.

Conclusion Even within Ghana’s strong legal and policy framework, ensuring children’s welfare remains a challenge. Some citizens describe child abuse and neglect as frequent occurrences in their community, but even where they are uncommon, these constitute a problem. Survey findings suggest that support services for vulnerable children are inadequate. A majority of Ghanaians expect their government to do more to protect and promote children’s well-being, which might include dedicating more human and financial resources to appropriate state agencies. Others clearly have a role to play as well, including civil society, the media, and trusted local stakeholders such as chiefs and religious leaders (Sanny & Asiamah, 2020). Poor citizens are particularly likely to say that abuse and neglect are common occurrences, that help for vulnerable children is not available, and that the government must do more, suggesting that disadvantaged communities may be a prime target for stronger childprotection interventions.

(Afrobarometer)

25 January 2023

Source: https://www.afrobarometer.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/AD596-Ghanaians-say-government-not-doing-enough-for-child-welfare-Afrobarometer-23jan23.pdf

WEST EUROPE

779-43-06/Polls

Three Quarters Of Britons Support Wealth Taxes On Millionaires

Keir Starmer has faced calls from many of his own MPs to impose taxes on the wealthiest in Britain, often broadly referred to as ‘wealth taxes’. However, Starmer has refrained from declaring his support or opposition for any particular policy, instead insisting that those with ‘the broadest shoulders’ should pay more, suggesting he would back some form of wealth taxation.

Britons support the creation of wealth taxes

However, the idea of a one-off wealth tax of 1% on wealth over £500,000 for five years is less appealing. Academics at the Wealth Tax Commission estimate that this would raise £262 billion, with around eight million people qualifying to pay the tax.

Around half (53%) of Britons support this policy, with 25% opposed. While two thirds of Labour voters remain in favour of this kind of wealth tax (66%), Conservative voters are divided 45% to 41%.

Labour voters support raising capital gains tax, Conservative voters are divided

One proposition for taxing the wealthiest is to raise capital gains tax, which is paid when selling assets like property and shares, so that is in line with the rate of tax paid on income from work. The government’s Office for Tax Simplification estimates that this could raise up to £14 billion a year in tax revenue.

Overall, the public tend to back this move, with 41% supportive and 30% opposed. However, Conservative voters overall tend to be opposed (36% support, 44% oppose), while Labour voters are supportive by 53% to 21%.

Labour’s proposed non-dom reforms poll well

Labour have already announced plans to end non-dom tax status if they win power, replacing it with a scheme more in line with other European nations’. Non-dom tax status allows UK residents with permanent homes abroad to avoid paying tax on any overseas income.

Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, has suggested that this new scheme would see people who previously qualified for non-dom tax status still having certain tax benefits, but only for up to a maximum of five years. Britons tend to support this policy as well, by 48% to 10%, with a large number unsure (42%). Both Conservative and Labour voters say they would back such a move (57% and 53%) respectively.

(YouGov UK)

January 23, 2023

Source: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2023/01/23/three-quarters-britons-support-wealth-taxes-millio

779-43-07/Polls

Women Are Nearly Twice As Likely To Consider Themselves To Be Superstitious Compared To Men

The survey also discovered that women are significantly more likely to be superstitious than men, with 43% of women saying they were either very or somewhat superstitious compared to just 24% of men.

What things do Britons believe bring good luck?

Of 28 superstitions asked about, the tradition of knocking on a piece of wood for luck is the one that Britons are most likely to believe in, with a third (33%) saying they do so. For those who say they are superstitious, 63% believe the practice will bring them good fortune.

The chances of finding a four-leaf clover are about one in 10,000, and a third of the British public (32%) believe that finding one will bring them good luck. Two-thirds of those who say they are superstitious believe that finding the rare plant will bring good fortune (65%).

According to the old saying, ‘Find a penny, pick it up, All day long you’ll have good luck’. That remains the case for 29% of Britons who believe in the superstition, as well as for 58% of those who say they are superstitious themselves.

More than a quarter of Britons (28%) also believe that making a wish while blowing out birthday candles or seeing a shooting star will bring them good luck.

What things do Britons believe bring bad luck?

Not only can breaking a mirror be a costly accident, but it is also believed to bring seven years bad luck. It is this superstition that Britons believe is most likely to result in misfortune, with 30% saying they believe breaking a mirror is a sign of bad luck to come. Two-thirds of Britons who consider themselves superstitious (65%) believe breaking a mirror brings bad luck.

Opening an umbrella indoors is also considered bad luck and even has its own national day on 13 March. A quarter of all Britons (26%) believe opening a brolly indoors will bring bad luck, including 56% of those who say they are superstitious.

Another activity which should be avoided on safety grounds, walking under a ladder, is also considered bad luck by 29% of the British public, including 62% of those who say they are superstitious.

While a wedding day should be one of the happiest days of a couple’s life, certain activities on the day are said to bring both good and bad luck. A quarter of Britons (25%) believe that a bride wearing “something borrowed, something blue, something old and something new” on the day will bring good luck. A fifth (21%) believe that it is bad luck if the couple see each other on their special day before the ceremony.

The youngest adults are more likely to say they own an item they consider to bring them luck

One in six Britons (16%) say they own an item they believe brings them luck, such as a coin or an item of clothing. Considering those in the youngest age group are the most likely to say they are superstitious, it is no surprise that Britons aged 18 to 24 are around twice as likely to own or wear a lucky charm (28%) compared to the older age groups (14-16%).

(YouGov UK)

January 24, 2023

Source: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/society/articles-reports/2023/01/24/which-superstitions-are-britons-most-likely-believ

779-43-08/Polls

Six In Ten Britons Believe Defacing Art Or Monuments Should Be A Criminal Offence

In recent months, campaigners Just Stop Oil have grabbed headlines across the UK with a range of controversial stunts, from throwing soup across Van Gogh’s Sunflowers to spraying paint across the windows of luxury car dealerships.

The Sunflowers stunt attracted widespread condemnation and led to those responsible facing police action for damage to the frame.

That action is likely to have been welcomed by many Britons, given that more than six in ten (62%) say they would back making the defacing of art or public monuments a specific criminal offence, including 41% who say they “strongly” support the idea.

Around three in ten Britons (28%), however, say they would be against making the defacing of art or public monuments a criminal offence, including 18% who are in strong opposition.

While the youngest Britons (18-24 year olds) are divided 38% in favour and 35% against, support grows with each older age group, with those aged 65 and above the most likely to back the rules at 75%.

Both Tory and Labour voters would support criminalisation

Eight in ten Conservative voters (79%) would back making the defacing of art or public monuments a specific criminal offence, as would 51% of Labour supporters. Close to four in ten Labour voters (39%) are opposed, however, a rate twice as high as among Tory voters (19%).

(YouGov UK)

January 26, 2023

Source: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2023/01/26/six-ten-britons-believe-defacing-art-or-monuments-

779-43-09/Polls

The NHS Overtakes The Economy And Inflation As The Most Mentioned Issue Facing Britain

Forty-two per cent of Britons say the NHS is one of the biggest issues for Britain, an increase of fifteen percentage points since December
Worry about inflation and the economy falls gently, although over a third of Britons see each as a big concern and they are still seen as the biggest single issues
Immigration remains fourth at 15%, while lack of faith in politics drops to 11%

The January 2023 Ipsos Issues Index reveals that concerns about the health service have displaced economic matters as the most mentioned important issue facing the country.

Forty-two per cent of Britons say the NHS is a big issue for Britain, an increase of fifteen percentage points since last month and the highest score since February 2020, immediately before the COVID-19 pandemic. This month is also the first time the NHS has topped the Issues Index since the February 2020 edition.

Concern about the economy and inflation/prices has fallen, by three and six points respectively. However both remain significant concerns, with over a third of the British public mentioning both the economy (37%) and inflation (36%). They also remain considered as the biggest single issue, with one in five picking each out as the biggest concern for Britain, compared with 15% who say the same about the NHS.

Immigration remains the fourth-biggest issue for the country, at the same score recorded in December. Significant differences in concern between groups remain too: this month 29% of Conservative party supporters mention immigration as a big issue for the country, against just five per cent of Labour party supporters.

The proportion citing lack of faith in politicians and politics has fallen by seven points since December, with 11% mentioning this as an issue for the country this month. However it remains in the top five issues, tied with housing and pollution/climate change.

Nine per cent mention poverty and inequality as a big worry this month – while it is only a small decrease from the December score of 11%, this is the lowest level of concern recorded in almost a decade: the last time the headline level of worry was nine per cent was July 2013. Eight percent each mention trade unions/strikes and Europe/Brexit.

While the NHS and healthcare is now the leading issue for Britain there remain significant differences between demographic groups. Concern is higher among those aged over 55 (52%), social grades AB (51%), those living in the south of England (50%) and women (49%). It is significantly lower than average among 18-34 year olds (26%) and Londoners (25%).

There are no differences between supporters of the two main political parties however: 48% of those who feel closer to the Conservative and Labour parties both mention the NHS as a big issue for Britain.

Concern about the NHS by subgroup Overall 42% Men 35% Women 49% Conservative 48% Labour 48% AB 51% C1 44% C2 38% DE 36% Age 18-24 16% 25-34 32% 35-44 48% 45-54 41% 55-64 53% 65+ 51% Base: 1,012 British adults 18+, 11 – 17 January 2023
Mike Clemence, a researcher at Ipsos, said:

The new year starts with a new concern at the top of Britons’ minds: the NHS is now the most mentioned important issue facing the country. But this means that there are three big issues in the country right now as the public also remain very worried about the national economy and inflation.
Outside these three concerns, immigration remains a big focus for a smaller part of the population, followed by housing, the environment and lack of faith in politicians.

(Ipsos MORI)

25 January 2023

Source: https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/nhs-overtakes-economy-and-inflation-most-mentioned-issue-facing-britain

779-43-10/Polls

6 In 10 Say Prince Harry Should Be Invited To The Coronation Of King Charles III

Prince William, King Charles and Princess of Wales remain among most popular Royals
64% want to keep the monarchy

When asked which two or three members of the Royal Family they like the most, Prince William has the broadest appeal (mentioned by 50%), followed by King Charles (32%) and Catherine, the Princess of Wales (29%). Prince Harry (17%) and Princess Anne (16%) come next. This compares with January 2018, just before Prince Harry’s wedding, when he and his brother were both at the top of the list (at 58% and 62% respectively), followed by the Queen at 47% and Catherine at 21%. Prince William was also top ten years ago on 62%, with the Queen second on 48% and Harry third on 36% (followed by Catherine on 23% and Charles on 21%).

Again there are age differences on this topic, with older people more likely to mention most of the core working Royals, while younger people have a slightly different view – they are more likely to choose none of the Royals and just not to have an opinion at all, but among those who do Prince William and Prince Harry are equally liked (both mentioned by 30% of 18-34 year olds). The Princess of Wales is also particularly popular among women (36% say she is one of their favourite Royals, compared with 22% of men).

hich Royals do you like the most? / change in ranking since 2018 Prince William 50% - King Charles 32% +4 Catherine, Princess of Wales 29% +1 Prince Harry 17% -2 Princess Anne 16% +1 Meghan Markle, Duchess of Sussex 4% +2 Prince Edward 4% +4 Sophie Rhys-Jones, Countess of Wessex 4% +4 The King’s grandchildren 4% +2 The Queen Consort, Camilla Parker Bowles 3% +3

Looking at views towards the institution as a whole, most Britons, 64%, remain in favour of keeping the monarchy, while 22% want a republic and 13% don’t know. Looking at age figures, 73% of over 35s want to keep the monarchy, but younger people are more divided (38% of 18-34 year olds want Britain to become a republic, 43% say keep the monarchy).

Support for the monarchy is roughly in line with the figures over the last two years (in May 2022 68% favoured a monarchy vs 22% republic, in November 2021 60% said keep the monarchy vs 21% republic), though is slightly below the long-term average support for the monarchy from the previous thirty years of just over 7 in 10. Support for the monarchy reached its peak during the 2010s - for example, in 2016 76% wanted to keep the monarchy (17% were in favour of a republic), and was at its highest during the Diamond Jubilee of 2012 at 80%.

Gideon Skinner, head of political research at Ipsos, said:

Despite not being as popular as he once was, most Britons still think Prince Harry should be invited to the coronation in May, which suggests that some do hope for reconciliation. Looking to the future, the majority still want to preserve the monarchy, and the Prince and Princess of Wales, and the King, remain among its most popular members. But support for the institution is not quite as high as it was in earlier decades, and this data points to the need for the monarchy to build support among younger people in particular.

(Ipsos MORI)

27 January 2023

Source: https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/6-10-say-prince-harry-should-be-invited-coronation-king-charles-iii

779-43-11/Polls

GenZ Trusts The Banks, But At The Same Time Sees The Future In Cryptocurrency

Although young consumers between the ages of 18 and 24 usually have little financial means at their disposal, the current YouGov target group analysis “ GenZ & Finanzdienstleistungen ” shows that this target group is already thinking about their financial future. The analysis was created using YouGov Profiles and examines the attitudes and preferences of GenZ (aged 18 to 24) towards financial service providers.

Majority wants to invest and save

The GenZ currently has rather limited financial resources at its disposal: a fifth (20 percent) have less than €500 a month, while this is the case for only 15 percent of the total population.

The majority of these young consumers (74 percent) plan to save more money over the next year, and more than half (52 percent) are looking for profitable ways to invest their money. Almost half of 18-24 year olds (47 percent) trust banks and financial services, but at the same time 47 percent believe that cryptocurrencies, and thus an unbanked financial system, are the future of online financial transactions.

The Sparkasse is the most popular bank for 18 to 24 year olds. For 38 percent, the savings bank is on the shortlist (compared with 31 percent of the total population). Young consumers are also more likely to consider Deutsche Bank: 13 percent shortlisted it, while this is only the case for 10 percent of the German population as a whole.

Among the mobile payment apps, GenZ respondents in particular use Apple Pay more frequently than the general population (14 vs. 7 percent). PayPal, on the other hand, is used less by 18- to 24-year-olds than other age groups: While 56 percent of the total population uses the online payment system, only half of GenZ (50 percent) do so.

The young target group spends a lot of time on social networks, most frequently on Instagram (65 vs. 38 percent) and YouTube (55 vs. 37 percent of the total population). Only on Facebook are all Germans more represented - just under a quarter of GenZ (23 percent) use the social media platform, in contrast to 48 percent of the total population.

(YouGov Germany)

January 25, 2023

Source: https://yougov.de/topics/economy/articles-reports/2023/01/25/die-genz-vertraut-den-banken-sieht-die-zukunft-gle

NORTH AMERICA

779-43-12/Polls

The Challenge Of Healthcare Reform

Do U.S. healthcare conditions warrant a major new governmental effort to reform the system? Recent Gallup research measuring Americans’ views of healthcare shows what I consider a complex picture, but there is enough evidence of perceived problems to suggest that continuing efforts to improve healthcare cost, coverage, access and quality are warranted. The challenge is how to go about it.

Trends in Americans’ Perceptions of Their Healthcare Are Mixed

As my colleague Lydia Saad recently noted, for the first time in Gallup’s two-decade trend, less than half of Americans rate the quality of healthcare in this country as excellent or good. Americans’ ratings of the quality of healthcare coverage they personally receive are also at a new low. And a record-high percentage say that within the past year, they or a member of their family has put off medical treatment because of the cost they would have to pay.

Other trends are more stable. Americans’ views of the cost of healthcare and healthcare coverage, both nationally and personally, are roughly where they have been. Ratings of the healthcare industry per se are slightly above the two-decade average, although still well below the average for all other business sectors rated.

Few Americans (1%-3% over Gallup’s past seven surveys) mention healthcare as the nation’s top problem, and the percentage who say the U.S. healthcare system today is in a state of crisis or has major problems is no higher than it has been at previous points over the past two decades.

Regardless of Trends, Evaluations of the Current Situation Show Problems

Gallup data show that Americans’ current ratings of their personal healthcare situations are on the positive side of the majority line, including a 72% excellent or good rating for personal healthcare quality, a 66% excellent or good rating for personal healthcare coverage, and 56% who are satisfied with personal healthcare costs.

Even though these are generally positive numbers, simple mathematics shows that substantial percentages of Americans remain concerned about their healthcare quality, coverage or cost. Plus, as noted, almost four in 10 Americans -- a not-insignificant number -- have put off medical treatment because of cost.

Additionally, Americans, as is the case across many domains, are clearly more negative when asked about healthcare “out there” across the country. For example, 76% of Americans are dissatisfied with the cost of healthcare in the U.S.; only 32% rate healthcare coverage in the U.S. as excellent or good; and the new low of 48% of Americans rate the quality of healthcare in the country positively.

Other Measures Illuminate Problems

Other measures signal continuing problems with U.S. healthcare. The U.S. spends more per capita on healthcare costs than any other developed country in the world, but objective measures of U.S. health quality are relatively low. As the Peter G. Peterson Foundation recently concluded, “Despite higher healthcare spending, America’s health outcomes are not any better than those in other developed countries. The United States actually performs worse in some common health metrics like life expectancy, infant mortality, and unmanaged diabetes.”

In other words, America’s return on its huge monetary investment in healthcare is suboptimal.

The COVID-19 pandemic, of course, engendered a major review of shortcomings in the American healthcare system, and healthcare access and quality remain inequitably distributed across subgroups of the population. Recent news headlines have pointed to problems with availability of pediatric hospital beds; nurses who are dissatisfied and have gone on strike; and the impact of respiratory syncytial virus, or RSV, on highlighting severe shortages in emergency room capacities.

Plus, although healthcare is not top of mind as the country’s No. 1 problem, Pew Research found that it was the fourth-highest-rated priority, out of 18, in U.S. registered voters’ vote for Congress last November. The Kaiser Family Foundation similarly found that healthcare and healthcare affordability, although dwarfed by concerns about the economy and inflation, were second on the list when Americans were asked to name the top priority for Congress this year.

The Seemingly Simple Solution of “Medicare for All” Is Problematic In the Public’s View

One seemingly simple solution for healthcare problems is the single-payer, “Medicare for All” program advanced by such leaders as Sen. Bernie Sanders. We don’t find strong support for this remedy from the public, although the public’s attitudes are complex (and interesting to study).

As my colleague Megan Brenan recently reviewed, “A 57% majority of U.S. adults believe that the federal government should ensure all Americans have healthcare coverage. Yet nearly as many, 53%, prefer that the U.S. healthcare system be based on private insurance rather than run by the government. These findings are in line with recent attitudes about the government’s involvement in the healthcare system, which have been relatively steady since 2015.”

Putting responses to these two questions together, we find that only 38% of Americans adopt the position Sanders espouses -- that the government’s role is to ensure that everyone has healthcare coverage and that the government should run the system. Another 35% of Americans adopt the opposite views, believing both that the nation should use a private insurance system and that it is not the government’s role to ensure healthcare for all to begin with. And 18% of Americans believe that the government should ensure that everyone has insurance, but that this should be accomplished through private insurance, not a government-run system.

The takeaway here: The majority of Americans recognize that government has a role in expanding health insurance coverage, but many are ambivalent about fulfilling that role with a government-run system.

Learning From History -- The Affordable Care Act

Reforming healthcare is not a new idea. Efforts to fix healthcare have extended back for decades -- including most significantly the creation of Medicare and Medicaid in President Lyndon Johnson’s administration.

Most recently, we saw the major focus on healthcare reform in the first years of the Barack Obama administration, culminating with passage of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) of 2010.

Public-opinion-wise, a slight majority of Americans continue to support the ACA, according to Kaiser Family Foundation 2022 tracking. Gallup has generally found the same pattern in recent years, although our 2021 survey found support evenly split. (Of course, Americans’ views of the ACA are intensely partisan).

And Gallup’s tracking shows only a very modest uptick after ACA enactment in Americans’ positive ratings of their personal healthcare coverage (68% excellent or good from 2001-2010 versus 69% from 2011-2022) and satisfaction with healthcare costs (58.3% satisfied in the years before ACA passage versus 59.6% afterward).

The Joe Biden administration certainly feels the ACA has been a success. A fact sheet from the Department of Health and Human Services argues that, “Since its enactment on March 23, 2010, the Affordable Care Act has led to an historic advancement of health equity in the United States. This landmark law improved the health of all Americans, including women and families, kids, older adults, people with disabilities, LGBTQI+ and communities of color.” And other reviews note that the ACA has been coincident with lower health insurance premiums and a decrease in the uninsured rate. The ACA’s effect on overall health spending (pre-COVID-19), however, is debatable.

Learning from History -- The Clinton Administration’s Healthcare Reform Efforts

Also of historical note is the major effort to reform healthcare in the first years of the Bill Clinton administration. Under the direction of first lady Hillary Clinton, the U.S. government put together a cabinet-level Healthcare Task Force that “… aimed to create a plan for comprehensive reform of the American health care system.” The Task Force’s Working Group involved more than 500 participants (meeting with “over 1,100 health care organizations”), and in the end promulgated a proposed 1,342-page Health Security Act. The law was immediately criticized by Republicans and industry groups, and by 1994 was declared dead, with no chance of passage in Congress.

Reform Needs to Involve the People

There are presumably numerous causes of the Clinton administration’s failure to reform healthcare, including the health insurance industry-funded “Harry and Louise” commercials that succeeded in casting doubt on the proposal.

But of particular relevance to any future efforts to reform healthcare, well-known pollster Daniel Yankelovich argued that “President Clinton’s reform plan was not shaped by discussion with citizens about rising health care costs and what to do about them -- a process whereby reform proposals are continuously adapted to the rhythm of public understanding. The plan was the product of experts and experts alone.”

Yankelovich’s insights provide important food for thought. If and when a new committee, task force, or advisory group is put together to grapple with healthcare reform in this country, a primary consideration should be to more directly involve the American people themselves in the process. This builds from the conclusion that major societal reforms ultimately must work in the real world. Theoretical justifications for healthcare reform fail if they don’t fly with the people of the society who are most directly affected. And, there is substantial wisdom in the collective views of the people, often outweighing the wisdom of presumed experts.

Defining Healthcare Reform Objectives

Any major effort to achieve societal goals must also have a well-defined objective. Two frequently cited examples of what a society can accomplish -- the Manhattan Project in World War II that produced the atomic bomb and the Apollo space program in the 1960s that sent men to the moon -- had extremely well-defined objectives (along with huge budgets and strong leadership).

The objectives for healthcare reform are less straightforward. But one major (and measurable) metric that can be used to measure success, it seems to me, is the views of Americans themselves, and how they feel about healthcare costs, coverage and quality. People are the end consumers of healthcare and the target toward whom all this effort is focused. Therefore, it makes sense to include the attitudes of the people themselves as a major objective or goal for any healthcare reform process.

Gallup CEO Jon Clifton in his book Blind Spot recently reviewed the importance of incorporating subjective measures of happiness along with economic indicators of GDP in measuring how countries across the world are faring. As he noted, “Absent from leadership dashboards is how people feel.” In parallel fashion, improving measures of how people feel about their healthcare can and, in my opinion, should become a significant objective for new efforts at healthcare reform.

(Gallup)

JANUARY 27, 2023

Source: https://news.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/468893/challenge-healthcare-reform.aspx

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Biden Averaged 41% Job Approval In His Second Year

Biden’s job approval rating varied little during his second year in office. In fact, each rating was between 40% and 42%, with the exceptions of a 38% reading in July and a 44% measurement in August. The lower score in July came after gas prices reached a record high and as inflation, more broadly, continued to be high. The August score came during an eventful month: Biden secured congressional support for a major domestic policy bill; the economy showed signs of improvement because of a strong jobs report and the easing of gas prices and inflation; the U.S. killed a major terrorist figure; and political attention shifted to Trump after an FBI raid seized classified documents from his residence.

Biden’s job approval rating remains at 41% in the latest poll, from Jan. 2-22. This was conducted as Biden became embroiled in an investigation similar to Trump’s after a series of classified documents were found in searches of Biden’s homes and offices. The existence of these documents became public on Jan. 9, during the middle of the field period for the latest survey. However, the lack of change in Biden’s approval suggests the document situation has not yet harmed his public standing.

Recent ratings for Biden contrast with those at the beginning of his term, between January and June 2021, when majorities approved of him. A summer 2021 COVID-19 surge, the troubled U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, and rising inflation contributed to a loss of support for the president in the late summer of 2021. His job approval ratings have held near 40% since then.

Biden averaged 48.9% job approval during his first year in office. Typically, presidents have had lower approval ratings in their second year than in their first year. The drop of nearly eight percentage points for Biden, however, is one of the larger declines for the 11 elected presidents who have served over the past eight decades. Carter, Reagan and Obama had larger drops than Biden did, all more than 10 percentage points.

Second-Year Ratings for Biden Tie for Most Polarized by Party

During Biden’s second year in office, an average 83% of Democrats, 37% of independents and 5% of Republicans approved of the job he was doing. Each of these groups' averages was lower than in Biden’s first year, including an eight-point drop among Democrats, nine points among independents and three points among Republicans.

The 78-point gap between Republican and Democratic approval of Biden in his second year essentially ties Trump’s 79 points as the largest for a president’s second year in office. Party gaps for all prior presidents were at least 10 points lower.

The larger gaps for Biden and Trump than for prior presidents are mainly the result of extremely low approval from supporters of the opposition party -- 8% for Trump among Democrats and 5% for Biden among Republicans during their second years in office.

Presidents before Trump and Biden who had relatively low approval ratings in their second years, such as Carter, Reagan, Clinton and Obama, managed to get approval ratings in the teens or 20s from the other party’s supporters. The more popular second-year presidents, including Dwight Eisenhower, Kennedy, and the elder and younger Bush, had approval near or above the majority level from the other side.

In fact, Biden’s 5% approval from Republicans is the lowest Gallup has measured for any president in any year of their presidency, dating back to 1953 when it first kept records of job approval by political party group. The prior low, 6% approval among Democrats, was shared by Republican Presidents George W. Bush in 2008 and Trump in 2016.

All told, Biden’s second year ranks as the fifth-most politically polarized of all presidential years. Biden and Trump hold all of the top five positions, and the eight most recent presidential years -- Obama’s last two years, Trump’s four years, and Biden’s first two years -- account for eight of the 10 most polarized years all-time.

Biden’s first-year approval ratings had a slightly larger party gap (83 points) than his second-year ratings, mostly because of his higher first-year ratings among Democrats. The decline in his year two ratings among Democrats led to a smaller party gap.

Bottom Line

Biden’s public support in his second year was highly stable, rarely straying more than a point from the 41% he averaged during the year. In many ways, Biden’s approval ratings are similar to those of his immediate predecessor, Trump. Both presidents’ ratings have been characterized by extreme and consistent party gaps, which has led to little variation in their overall job approval, except when independents’ or their own party’s supporters’ judgments changed, usually modestly.

Consistently high support from their own party’s supporters has also kept Biden’s and Trump’s approval “floors” from getting too low, as neither has descended to the depths reached by Presidents Harry Truman, Richard Nixon, Carter, George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush amid extremely challenging national and economic conditions or personal scandal.

The main thing that distinguishes Trump’s and Biden’s public support is that Biden had the traditional honeymoon period of above-average ratings early in his presidency, while Trump did not.

(Gallup)

JANUARY 25, 2023

Source: https://news.gallup.com/poll/468806/biden-averaged-job-approval-second-year.aspx

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How Today’s Parents Say Their Approach To Parenting Does – Or Doesn’t – Match Their Own Upbringing

How are U.S. parents raising their children these days, and how does their approach compare with the way their own parents raised them? To answer this, Pew Research Center asked over 3,700 parents nationwide: Compared with how you were raised, are you trying to raise your children in a similar way or a different way?

Graphic showing how parents say they are raising their children similarly to or differently
from their own upbringing and if so, in what way among five themes: values and religion, behavior and discipline, love and relationship, education, and freedom and autonomy.

More from this survey: Parenting in America Today

When asked in an open-ended question to describe the specific ways in which they’re raising their children, parents’ responses touched on many different dimensions of family life, with some including details from their own upbringing. Five distinct themes emerged from the parents’ open-ended responses. Among parents who say they’re raising their children similarly to how they were raised, the dominant theme focused on values and beliefs that are important to their family. For those who are taking a different approach to parenting compared with their own upbringing, a focus on love and their relationship with their children was the most common theme.

Values and religion

Among parents who say they are raising their children similarly to how they were raised, 63% mentioned something having to do with values and religion when asked to elaborate. Parents who say they are raising their children in a different way than they were raised were less likely to focus on this theme (13% mentioned it).

Responses for parents who are raising their children similarly tended to center around instilling respect for others, good morals, and a strong work ethic. Some also described principles to stand by, like integrity and honesty, while others mentioned certain civic or ideological values, such as raising their kids to be good citizens or instilling conservative values.

“Instill morals, ethics, a sense of right and wrong, work ethic, respect for others, faith, and an understanding of correct principles that will help them succeed and to help others to succeed in life. I was raised the same way.”

Father, age 39

“I am not taking my kid to the church, and I am trying to teach my kid to be open and friendly to people ‘different’ than her.”

Mother, age 44

A significant share of these parents (17%) specifically mentioned religion, with many saying that they want to pass along the same religious beliefs and values their parents instilled in them. These parents pointed to faith and spirituality as a focus in raising their kids, just as it was when they were growing up.

Among parents raising their children differently from how they were raised, 7% mentioned that they want to instill different values in their children from the values they were raised with. These range from compassion to open-mindedness, which some parents feel were not among the values their own parents taught them as children.

The same share talked about religion when detailing how they are trying to raise their children differently. Some mentioned adding religion into their children’s lives (where it may have been absent in theirs), while others emphasized limiting or removing the amount of religious influence compared with what they experienced growing up.

Love and relationship

Among parents who say they are raising their children differently from how they were raised, 44% gave answers that focused on love and their relationship with their children. This theme was less common among parents who are raising their children similarly to their own upbringing (16% mentioned it).

For parents who say they’re taking a different approach in raising their children, many said they are giving them more love and affection than what they received as a child; they want their children to feel like they are growing up in a loving home where there is a lot of support and outward praise. Parents who are raising their children in a similar way to how they were raised tended to talk about providing their kids with a loving household or giving them unconditional love, either through verbal affirmation or other displays of affection.

“I always knew that if I needed my family that they would be there for me no matter the situation. I always had their love and support. I want them to know that it’s never a situation that they can’t come to me.”

Mother, age 37

“I was never shown affection or told that my parents loved me. I am trying to show more love in my caregiving.”

Mother, age 44

Being an involved parent was a sentiment expressed by both groups of parents. Among those who say they’re taking a different approach to parenting, some said they want to be more present in their kids’ day-to-day lives than their parents were. Both groups of parents talked about the importance of having family dinners, supporting their children in their extracurricular activities, and generally spending time with them on a regular basis.

Parents who are raising their children differently from how they were raised expressed some unique – and often poignant – things they are trying to do. This includes better lines of communication with their children – not yelling as much and listening more. Additionally, some parents directly referenced having open and honest conversations with their children, sometimes even surrounding current societal topics.

Other parents said they are focusing on cultivating an understanding relationship in raising their kids differently and underscored accepting their children for who they are. A handful of parents mentioned they want their children to grow up confident and comfortable with themselves, and others focused on providing their children with emotional support and being more in touch with their feelings than their parents were.

Behavior and discipline

Whether they’re trying to raise their kids similarly to or differently from how they were raised, comparable shares of parents pointed to expectations for their children’s behavior and discipline when asked to say more about their approach to parenting (29% and 32%, respectively).

Parents who say they’re raising their kids similarly often emphasized responsibility, manners, respecting rules and doing household chores. Some also pointed to setting boundaries, holding their children accountable, and not tolerating unacceptable behaviors such as lying.

Many parents who say they’re raising their children in a different way focused on their parenting style, approaches to disciplining their kids, and setting expectations for behavior. Some mentioned taking a gentler approach to parenting, while others said they are firmer with their children than their own parents were with them. About one-in-ten of these parents specifically mentioned that they would not use corporal punishment when discipling their children.

“I was raised in a traditional environment and my parents were principled and strict disciplinarians. I believe children benefit and turn out well in such environments.”

Father, age 45

“I was raised in a time where physical punishment was more common and much more socially accepted, but I almost immediately strayed away from that when raising children of my own.”

Mother, age 51

Education

In reflecting on their parenting, 9% of parents who say they’re raising their children similarly to how they were raised mentioned education, as did 5% who say they’re raising their children differently. Both sets of parents discussed the importance of ensuring that their kids work hard and do well in school, along with the type of schooling they want their kids to have, such as homeschool or private school. Parents who are raising their children in a similar way emphasized the value and importance of education overall and expressed high academic expectations for their kids. Those raising their children differently spoke about education in the context of giving their kids a better education than they had, while a few mentioned giving their children a little more leeway on academics because they grew up with strict parents.

“My mother always talked to me about bullies, she encouraged my education and prepared me for school, she attended school functions/meetings, taught me about God, took out time to meet my friends, etc. I do all these things.”

Mother, age 41

“My parents were … unable to afford to put me in any classes or lessons. They valued academics above all else. While I think academics is very important, I would like my children to have a more well-rounded upbringing.”

Mother, age 40

Freedom and autonomy

Parents also commonly mentioned approaches to parenting that give their children the freedom to just be kids and the autonomy to make their own choices, regardless of whether they’re raising their children in a similar or different way from how they were raised. Parents in both categories described a variety of approaches related to autonomy: allowing their kids to learn and grow from their mistakes, giving them the freedom to make their own choices, and wanting them to think for themselves. In particular, some parents who are raising their children differently discussed how they want their children to have more independence.

“[I] encourage them to think independently, allow them to be creative and grow, give them opportunities to explore the world in a safe and supported way.”

Father, age 42

“I try to give my children more trust, let them make more of their own decisions. I actively try to help them reach their own conclusions rather than forcing my beliefs on them. I see myself as a partner with them rather than a boss.”

Mother, age 39

In their own words

Below, we have a selection of quotes that describe the many ways that parents are approaching raising their children today – both similarly to and differently from how they were raised.

(PEW)

JANUARY 24, 2023

Source: https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2023/01/24/how-todays-parents-say-their-approach-to-parenting-does-or-doesnt-match-their-own-upbringing/

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How Good Is AI At Writing Survey Questions

Here’s what we know today from the Ipsos Coronavirus Consumer Tracker:

The IPAC, Ipsos’ measure of how consumers are dealing with the pandemic, slipped back toward “coping” at the end of last year and has stuck there now.
In a holiday miracle, we have asked people to rate how “intolerable” the pandemic is and in wave 66 it finally, finally, dropped to 2.1. It’s never gone below 2.2 in any wave. But alas, it was short-lived. Back to 2.2 we go in wave 67.
Mask wearing has ticked up slightly, with 28% saying they always/often wear masks indoors.
About half of Americans think gas prices are going up.

Read on for data about: AI, return-to-office, "Buy American," reward points and more.

How good is AI at writing survey questions?

Why we asked: We were curious how people felt about AI given all the news. So we had AI write some questions about itself. Wait? What? There’s a lot of news and chatter these days about ChatGPT from OpenAI. As it should be. There’s been a lot of hype around things like crypto, NFTs, the metaverse, Goncharov and drinking liquid nitrogen candy to blow “dragon breath” out of your ears. But this sort of AI technology is the most likely, in my opinion, to have a long-term impact on our daily lives and work.

So, we asked ChatGPT to write a survey about public opinion related to AI and its uses and effectiveness. Wisely, it suggested starting with a familiarity question. And with some trial and error, it did a pretty decent job at giving us a baseline. It wasn’t perfect by any means but as a starting point it wasn’t bad. Have we seen the future of bots and humans working together to be more efficient?

What we found: Most people believe they are familiar with the concept of AI. About three in four said they’re familiar, with 18% saying they were very familiar. Then we asked the AI for an agree-disagree battery and again, it gave us a good starting point. Some well-trained humans at Ipsos massaged the questions, and the resulting data showed that people are still a little skeptical, but not all that skeptical of AI.

43% say that AI-generated written work can be as good as something written by a human. Fewer (but still a lot for something this new, 36%) think it can outperform a human’s writing. Nearly half (48%) think that AI can replace certain work activities, which certainly seems to be in the cards and people are already learning how to work with it across a variety of tasks and sectors. Even more (62%) think it can save time and resources.

Finally, the AI suggested we ask about how AI can be inaccurate and biased, which, well, it can. More than half (56%) say they think work from an AI can have issues like this. All of this technology is new and accelerating at a crazy rate so these questions will be fun to trend.

Chart showing that people think AI will be a part of our work going forward

We are less comfortable with our finances than last year

Why we asked: A year ago, we asked a series of questions about economic situations. Headed into 2023 and a plausible recession, it seemed like a good time to take a year-over-year look at the consumer so we asked again last wave. And confidence had taken a big hit. Wanting to see if this was signal or noise we asked again in W66 and W67.

What we found: It’s a little bouncy but only a third of folks say they comfortable with their economic situation. They’re outnumbered by the 44% who say they are uncomfortable. This fits with the overall feeling of uncertainty people are feeling in today’s world of polycrisis.

How are gas prices doing?

Why we asked: Gas prices are one of those things people pay a lot of attention to. Except for EV owners, who will tell you within seconds of meeting them that they have no idea what gas costs. Note: we changed up the wording our gas price tracker and will use this version moving forward.

What we found: About half of Americans (47%) feel that gas prices are going up. Interestingly, there’s some regional difference. Those in the South are much more likely to say prices are going up (55%) than those in the Northeast (37%), for instance. One in three in the Northeast and West say prices are going down.

Chart showing that people in the American South believe gas prices are going up

Outlook for 2023

Why we asked: As we start a new year, it’s good to look ahead. So for the third year, we are asking people to rate the current year and their outlook for the next year (2023).

What we found: A year ago, we reported that “On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being an extremely good year, people rated 2021 a 5.7 for themselves, personally. Mediocre, but up from 5.1 in 2020.”

This year, we rated 2022 a 5.9 for ourselves personally. Continued progress! In 2021, our outlook for this year, however, was a 6.4. The fact that we rated it a 5.9 shows 2022 didn’t quite live up to our expectations. That’s pretty normal. But the numbers keep going up. Our outlook numbers continue to improve. Americans think 2023 will be a 6.5 for ourselves, 6.8 for our jobs and 5.4 for the nation.

Chart showing that people believe 2023 will be a better year

How is inflation impacting our credit card and loyalty reward points?

Why we asked: The points economy is a robust one. But with retailers and airlines devaluing points, and inflation making things like vacations cost more, what are people doing with their point balances? Spending down balances to save money? Hoarding points for a big purchase?

What we found: Most people (61%) take part in some sort of rewards program. Good for them.

Most people are using their points to save money (74%) and many are also using them for a big purchase like travel or hotels (42%). Only 36% feel that their points have lost value. About one in three say that they prefer cash back over rewards. About 23% say they are signing up for new credit cards to get additional or different kinds of points.

Chart showing that people are using credit card and loyalty points to save money

What’s the state of ‘Buy American?’

Why we asked: During the pandemic, there was a rise in sentiment around buying American, shopping local and supporting small businesses. Partially it was an effort to keep the local and very local economies going during a time of crisis. Partially it was a reaction to supply chain issues. As time has gone on, there is some evidence that the pendulum is swinging back as people missed the national and global brands they had previously been loyal too. Inflation plays in as well.

What we found: About half of Americans say that buying American is more important now than before the pandemic. Only 5% say it’s less important. That’s roughly the same numbers as when we last asked this question way back in June, 2020. Two in three say that whether a product is made in American or by an American company plays into their purchase decision (23% say it plays into their decision-making process often). Only 30% say it rarely or never plays in. And we added a new question about what it is that drives people to buy American. There are both economic and patriotic reasons to do so. 80% say they want to support American values with the purchase they make. A similar number say it’s about keeping money in their community. Slightly fewer, but still about two in three, say that they think American products are better quality (68%) and more sustainable (63%) due to shorter supply chains and related factors. Republicans are more likely to respond to the patriotic points than Democrats, but support is high across party lines.

Chart showing that buying American-made products is important to consumers

How are we feeling about the office these days?

Why we asked: Some high-profile companies have called workers back to the office more frequently of late, so it seemed a good time to check back in. January saw an uptick in in-office days in many markets, although still below pre-pandemic rates.

What we found: The mix of how people are working today remains consistent, with 22% fully at home, 22% hybrid and 56% at the workplace full time. The preferred mix also remains steady with people pretty evenly split between wanting to work mostly at home or mostly at the office, with slightly fewer wanting to be evenly split. 37% say their employers have set guidelines for how often they should be in the workplace. Whatever situation people are working in, they think they will be able to keep it up, with 90% saying it’s unlikely to change in the next few months (70% very likely).

Two charts showing that people have settled into their office routines

(Ipsos USA)

23 January 2023

Source: https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/chatgpt-poll-americans-about-ai

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Growing Proportion (22%, +3) Of Canadians Are “Completely Out Of Money,” Saying There Is No Way They Can Pay More For Household Necessities

Underscoring the financial anxieties of Canadians, many are worried about providing even the most basic necessities for their household:

Half (52%) are concerned (22% very/30% somewhat) that they might not have enough money to feed their family. While inflation rates are starting to come down, this proportion is down just 1 point since November. The concern is particularly widespread among parents with kids in the household (64%) women (58%), and those aged 18-34 (59%) and 35-54 (58%).
A majority (56%) remains concerned (20%/36% somewhat) that they might not be able to afford gasoline (down 5 points since November), with higher proportions of women (62%), 18–34-year-olds (64%) and parents (70%) saying this is the case.

(Ipsos Canada)

25 January 2023

Source: https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/growing-proportion-of-canadians-are-completely-out-money

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Seven-In-Ten Say PM Should Have Taxpayer-Funded Residence; Less Support For Other Political Figures

The federal government has yet to decide what to do with the dilapidated dwelling of the prime minister. However, new data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds half of Canadians (50%) oppose renovating 24 Sussex at the estimated cost of $36 to $38 million. Still, a plurality (41%) believe that to be the best solution, while a further third (33%) say it’s best to knock it down and build a modern home and office for the prime minister.

Amid the high costs of maintaining official residences, some of which date back to confederation, there appears to be little appetite among Canadians for taxpayers to fund homes for political figures other than the prime minister.

Seven-in-ten (69%) believe the government should foot the bill for a house for the prime minister, but fewer believe the governor general (39%), leader of the opposition (25%), or the speaker of the house (19%) should receive publicly funded housing. Though not as significant as the bill for 24 Sussex, all of the official residencies for those positions also currently have seven-figure deferred maintenance costs hanging over them.

Perhaps the biggest barrier to the required renovations has been fear of political fallout. Two-thirds (64%) of Canadians believe this to be the case, saying recent federal governments have failed to maintain the prime minister’s residence “because they are afraid of the public backlash.” However, just half (49%) who say federal governments let 24 Sussex fall into disrepair because they were afraid of the political consequences also say they support the renovation of the prime minster’s official residency at the estimated cost.

More Key Findings:

Among those who voted in the 2021 federal election, only past Liberal voters support a taxpayer-funded official residence for the governor general at a majority level (54%). This, after former Governor General Julie Payette became the first in her position to live somewhere else than Rideau Hall during her tenure.

Past Liberal voters, as well, are the only group of political supporters to believe at a majority level (57%) 24 Sussex should be renovated at the current estimated cost. Three-in-five past CPC (60%) and Bloc Québécois voters (60%) are opposed.

About ARI

The Angus Reid Institute (ARI) was founded in October 2014 by pollster and sociologist, Dr. Angus Reid. ARI is a national, not-for-profit, non-partisan public opinion research foundation established to advance education by commissioning, conducting and disseminating to the public accessible and impartial statistical data, research and policy analysis on economics, political science, philanthropy, public administration, domestic and international affairs and other socio-economic issues of importance to Canada and its world.

INDEX

Opinions about renovating 24 Sussex
Majority say governments have failed due to fear of political backlash
Should the PM, others be provided a publicly funded home?

Opinions about renovating 24 Sussex

The official residence for Canada’s prime minister has not had a prime minister in it since 2015. Instead, since his election that year, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his family have been living at Rideau Cottage, a house on the grounds of Rideau Hall, the official residence of the governor general. Former Prime Minister Stephen Harper lived in 24 Sussex from 2006 to 2015, despite it already being in poor state of repair. A 2008 auditor general’s report estimated it would cost $10 million to renovate the building at the time.

When it was revealed Trudeau and his family had no interest in moving in when first elected as prime minister, several renovation reality stars offered their services to get the job done. However, a full-term majority and two successive minority governments later, 24 Sussex is still an unfixed fixer-upper and the price tag to get it up to snuff is now estimated to be at least $36.6 million. The property now has more mould, lead, and asbestos than occupants, as the last government employees vacated 24 Sussex in November due to its poor condition.

The challenge perhaps facing successive governments as 24 Sussex crumbled is the optics of spending millions on a house for a prime minister. This might be especially an issue in an era where the cost of living, and especially housing affordability, continues to be a top national concern.

Canadians are more likely to oppose than support spending $36-38 million to renovate 24 Sussex Drive. Half (50%) oppose the expenditure, including 30 per cent who do so strongly. Those who voted for the Conservatives (60%) and Bloc Québécois (60%) are stronger in their opposition than those who voted Liberal (34%) or NDP (44%):

After a year of high inflation, half of Canadians said in December they were worse off now than 12 months earlier. It was a financially difficult year for many Canadians.

Perhaps because of this, those in lower income households are more likely to oppose spending the more than $36 million to renovate 24 Sussex.

As well, men are much more supportive of the $36-million repairs (48%) than women (34%):

The federal government is still working on its plan for 24 Sussex, but has not divulged any details. Some have proposed that a completely new building could be built, one with both space for official meetings, additional rooms for visiting leaders and staff, as well as the residence for the prime minister and their family. Perhaps they will even spring for central air conditioning so visiting vice presidents won’t have to sweat in the July heat. This would give the prime minister a residence with similar functionality of those of other Group of Seven countries, such as the United States, and the United Kingdom.

Those who opposed, or offered no opinion on, renovating 24 Sussex were then asked if they would replace it with a modern home and offices or knock it down without replacing it at all. When those responses are aggregated with the Canadians who support renovating the existing structure, the data suggests a larger base of support for modernizing the official prime minister’s residences. Indeed, three-quarters (74%) would either renovate or knock down 24 Sussex and build something new. One-quarter of Canadians (26%) would demolish the building and not rebuild.

More than one-third (35%) in Saskatchewan believe 24 Sussex should be knocked down and not replaced, the most in the country:

Few, but still 13 per cent, of past Liberal voters would knock down 24 Sussex and be done with the matter. Past CPC (31%) and BQ (33%) voters are more likely to choose that option:

Majority say governments have failed due to fear of political backlash

There is a significant political challenge to a prime minister seen as feathering their own nest. Former Prime Minister Jean Chretien said he was reluctant to spend on repairs for 24 Sussex because of the potential blowback when he was in office, despite needing buckets to collect water from a leak in a roof. It took a storm blowing off the roof for it to be replaced.

In Australia, there was much controversy over a $11.5-million renovation of that country’s prime minister’s official residence in Canberra. However, the prime minister and opposition leader cooperated to create an advisory committee to provide the government guidance on future renovations. In Canada, a former privy council clerk suggested that a trust with an endowment or capital fund could be created to manage 24 Sussex, removing some of the political barriers to the maintenance of the residence.

Two-thirds of Canadians (64%) believe the potential political fallout is why recent governments have failed in their responsibility to maintain the prime minister’s residence. This is also the majority belief of past voters of all four of the country’s major political parties (see detailed tables).

Men are more likely than women to believe public backlash has kept recent federal governments from maintaining 24 Sussex:

Perhaps that fear is well placed. Two-in-five (43%) of those who accuse federal governments of being afraid of the political fallout also say they are against spending the estimated $36 million or more to renovate 24 Sussex:

Should the PM, others be provided a publicly funded home?

The National Capital Commission maintains five other official residences in addition to 24 Sussex Drive: Rideau Hall, the residence of the governor general; Harrington Lake, the country residence of the prime minister; 7 Rideau Gate, a residence used by visiting dignitaries; Stornoway, the official residence of the leader of the opposition; and The Farm, the official residence of the speaker of the house. (The speaker of the house also has the use of a small apartment located in the House of Commons itself.) As heritage buildings, some of which date back to the confederation of Canada, they require significant upkeep.

The NCC estimated in 2021 that the official residences, including their support buildings, have a total of $89.1 million in deferred maintenance, including the more than $36 million it estimated at the time would be required to fix 24 Sussex Drive.

Overall, Canadians support giving the prime minister housing at public expense (69%) but are less supportive of official residences for the governor general (39%), opposition leader (25%), and the speaker of the house (19%).

Only past Liberal voters support giving the governor general an official residence at a majority level (54%). Notably, former Governor General Julie Payette, who resigned from the position after an external review found a toxic workplace culture in her office, became the first governor general to not live at Rideau Hall during her four-year term from 2017 to 2021. Her successor, Mary Simon, did not follow suit when she took over the position in 2021, despite a looming $31-million deferred maintenance bill.

Three-in-ten (30%) of Canadians under the age of 35, and one-third of those aged 35 to 54, say none of those government positions should come with taxpayer-funded housing. Canadians over the age of 54 are more supportive of an official residence for the prime minister (78%) and the governor general (45%) than younger age groups. However, support for the latter falls short of a majority level even among that age group:

(Angus Reid Institute)

January 23, 2023

Source: https://angusreid.org/trudeau-prime-minister-official-residence-24-sussex/

779-43-18/Polls

Canadians Strongly Support COVID-19 Test Requirement For Travellers From China, But Also Question Its Efficacy

In response to rising cases in China, Canada, alongside other countries, set a new requirement this month that travellers form China must produce a negative COVID-19 test prior to takeoff.

Data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds a majority of Canadians supportive of this policy, but unsure if it will be effective at reducing the spread of COVID-19 in their country. Indeed, Canadians who support the policy (77%) outnumber those who are opposed (16%) by nearly five-to-one.

However, those who believe the policy will be effective at reducing COVID-19 infections in Canada (34%) are in the minority. More Canadians believe it will be ineffective (38%) or are unsure (28%). And even among Canadians who support the policy, fewer than half (44%) say they believe it will be effective at preventing the spread of COVID-19.

There are other concerns with this policy. Some, including the Chinese government, have called it “discriminatory”. Others have gone further and called it “racist”. The pandemic has produced plenty of negative side effects, including discrimination and racism experienced by Canadians of Chinese descent. Some worry this new policy of testing travellers from China will rekindle those ugly sentiments.

One-in-eight (13%) Canadians call the policy racist. However, more (73%) believe it’s not. Canadians who identify as visible minorities are twice as likely to label the policy racist (23%) than those who don’t identify as such (10%). Still, majorities of those who identify as visible minority (62%) and those who don’t (76%) say the policy is not racist.

More Key Findings:

Nearly all (94%) of those who oppose the COVID-19 testing policy for travellers from China believe it won’t be effective at reducing the spread of the virus in Canada.

One-in-five (19%) Canadians say they are not travelling at all because they are worried about COVID-19. A further 33 per cent say they have approached their recent travel with caution. Two-in-five (41%) are less worried about the risk of COVID-19 when it comes to travel.

Two-in-five (37%) of those who have not travelled at all outside of their province since March 2022 say they aren’t travelling because they worry about catching COVID-19.

About ARI

INDEX

Part One: Canada’s COVID-19 testing policy for travellers from China

Strong support for testing travellers from China
Most doubt policy’s efficacy
Is it racist? Most Canadians say “no”

Part Two: Travel in a lingering pandemic

Half of Canadians approach travel with caution because of COVID-19
Two-in-five who have not travelled in last year say COVID-19 is keeping them home

Part One: Canada’s COVID-19 testing policy for travellers from China

After nearly three years of some of the strictest COVID-19 policies in the world, China ended its so-called zero-COVID strategy in December. The policy shift meant increased freedom for the citizens of the world’s second-most populous country, but a surge in infections and deaths among a population with little exposure to the virus, and vaccination that may not be effective against the most common strain of COVID-19.

As COVID-19 spreads rapidly through China, there has been fear that new variants could emerge from the country. In January, Canada followed other countries by instituting a requirement for travellers departing from China, Hong Kong or Macau to test negative for COVID-19 before departure. The Chinese government denounced the policy, calling it “discriminatory”.

Strong support for testing travellers from China

There is strong and widespread support for the policy to test travellers from China for COVID-19 among Canadians. Those who oppose it are outnumbered by nearly five to one. Canadians over the age of 54 are most likely to support the policy, while those aged 35 to 54 are the most likely to oppose:

Approaching three-in-ten (27%) Albertans and one-quarter (23%) in Saskatchewan say they oppose the policy to test travellers from China. Notably, most COVID-19 policies have been more likely to be opposed in those two provinces than others over the course of the pandemic.

Most doubt policy’s efficacy

Some health experts have panned the policy, expressing doubt it will be effective at preventing the emergence of new variants in Canada. “This is closing the barn door after the horse has already escaped,” said infectious diseases physician Dr. Matthew Oughton.

Two-in-five Canadians (38%) say it will be ineffective, and another three-in-ten (28%) say they aren’t sure if it will reduce the spread of COVID-19 in Canada. One-third (34%) believe the policy will work as intended.

Canadians over the age of 54 are the most likely to believe the policy will be effective (41%). A plurality of Canadians younger than that believe testing travelllers from China for COVID-19 won’t reduce the spread of the virus in Canada:

Even among supporters of the policy, those who believe it will be effective (44%) are outnumbered by those who have their doubts. The minority of Canadians who oppose the policy to test travellers from China for COVID-19 are near unanimous (94%) in their belief that it won’t be effective at preventing further spread of the virus:

Is it racist? Most Canadians say “no”

As COVID-19 spread in the early waves of the pandemic, it carried with it a tide of racism and discrimination towards Canadians of Chinese descent due to the first cases emerging from Wuhan, China in late 2019. An Angus Reid Institute study in June 2020 found that half of Canadians of Chinese ethnicity said they had been called names or insulted as a direct result of the COVID-19 outbreak.

There is concern that this new selective testing policy targeting only travellers from China will inspire further discrimination towards Canadians of Chinese ethnicity.

One-in-eight (13%) Canadians believe the policy to be racist. However, most – approaching three-quarters (73%) – disagree. Younger Canadians are more likely to call the policy racist, but majorities of all age groups disagree:

Half (52%) of those who oppose the requirement for travellers from China to test negative for COVID-19 believe it to be a racist policy. Nearly all (89%) who support the policy say it is not racist:

Canadians who identify as visible minorities are twice as likely (23%) as those who don’t (10%) to say Canada’s COVID-19 testing requirement for travellers from China is racist. However, notably, a majority of those who identify as visible minorities (62%) disagree:

Part Two: Travel in a lingering pandemic

As restrictions faded, Canadians began travelling at much higher rates in 2022. Though air passenger volume lagged behind volumes seen pre-pandemic, Canadians returned to the skies in numbers not seen since February 2020. And there could be more to come: two-in-five (43%) Canadians say they plan to travel more in 2023.

Half of Canadians approach travel with caution because of COVID-19

While restrictions have become more or less a thing of the past, COVID-19 still spreads and the possibility of catching the virus while travelling is on the minds of many Canadians. Half (52%) say they have been approaching travel in recent months with caution because of the threat of COVID-19. Two-in-five (41%) are more relaxed and less worried about the spectre of COVID-19 infection as they travel.

As has been the case throughout the pandemic, older Canadians are more worried about the virus than younger ones. As well, women are more likely than men to say they’ve been approaching travel with caution towards COVID-19:

Two-in-five who have not travelled in last year say COVID-19 is keeping them home

More than half (56%) of those who have travelled frequently since most of the pandemic restrictions were lifted in March 2022 say they aren’t worried about the risk of COVID-19 while travelling. Meanwhile, two-in-five (37%) of those who have not travelled in recent months out of their province, or out of Canada, say they aren’t travelling at all because they’re worried about COVID-19:

(Angus Reid Institute)

January 24, 2023

Source: https://angusreid.org/canada-china-covid-surge-travel-policy-testing/

AUSTRALIA

779-43-19/Polls

Nearly Two-Thirds Of Australians (64%) Say January 26 Should Be Known As ‘Australia Day’, Virtually Unchanged On A Year Ago

Over two-thirds of men favour ‘Australia Day’ on January 26, but Women are more evenly split

There is quite a gender difference on the question with men favouring January 26 being known as ‘Australia Day’ rather than ‘Invasion Day’ by a margin of over 2:1 (69% cf. 31%).

In contrast, Australia’s women are more evenly split with a narrow majority of 58% in favour of January 26 being known as ‘Australia Day’ compared to 42% saying it should be known as ‘Invasion Day’.

Support for saying January 26 should be known as ‘Australia Day’ is down slightly on a year ago for both genders.

Australians under 35 continue to favour ‘Invasion Day’ while those over 35 favour ‘Australia Day’

The results of this survey are heavily correlated to age with a majority of Australians aged under 35 in favour of January 26 being known as ‘Invasion Day’. A majority of 56% of Australians aged under 25 are in favour of January 26 being known as ‘Invasion Day’ compared to 44% who say it should be known as ‘Australia Day’.

There is a very similar result for their slightly older counterparts aged 25-34 with 53% in favour of the day being known as ‘Invasion Day’ compared to 47% who say it should be known as ‘Australia Day’.

Support for January 26 being known as ‘Australia Day’ increases for each successive age group above the age of 35. Almost three-fifths of people aged 35-49 are in favour of ‘Australia Day’ (59% cf. 41%) and this margin increases substantially for those aged 50-64 (73% cf. 27%) and 65+ (81% cf. 19%).

Interestingly, the largest shift over the last year has been for younger people aged under 25 with support for January 26 being known as ‘Australia Day’ growing significantly by 8% points for this age group. In contrast, the largest movement in the other direction has been for people aged 35-49 for whom support for January 26 being known as ‘Invasion Day’ has increased by 6% points from a year ago.

ALP & L-NP voters favour ‘Australia Day’ whereas Greens voters increasingly favour ‘Invasion Day’

L-NP supporters favour January 26 being known as ‘Australia Day’ rather than ‘Invasion Day’ by a margin of almost three-to-one, 74% (down 2% points from a year ago) cf. 26% (up 2% points) - while almost two-thirds of ALP supporters favour ‘Australia Day’ (63%, down 2% points from a year ago) cf. ‘Invasion Day’ (37%, up 2% points).

In contrast, an increasing majority of Greens supporters are in favour of January 26 being known as ‘Invasion Day’ (63%, up 7% points from a year ago) rather than ‘Australia Day’ (44%, down 7% points).

Supporters of Independents and Others, including Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, and Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party, are increasingly in favour of January 26 being known as ‘Australia Day’ (80%, up 12% points) compared to only 20% (down 12% points) that say it should be known as ‘Invasion Day’.

Over two-thirds of people in Queensland and Western Australia but only 54% in Victoria are in favour of January 26 being known as ‘Australia Day’

Over two-thirds of people in both Queensland (69% cf. 31%) and Western Australia (71% cf. 29%) are in favour of January 26 being known as ‘Australia Day’ instead of ‘Invasion Day’ – the highest support for retaining the holiday as it currently is of any of the six States.

Support for the existing arrangement is also strong in several States with over three-fifths of people in New South Wales (66% cf. 34%), South Australia (66% cf. 34%) and Tasmania (61% cf. 39%) in favour of January 26 being known as ‘Australia Day’ instead of ‘Invasion Day’.

However, in Victoria there is only a narrow majority in favour of January 26 being known as ‘Australia Day’ (54%) rather than ‘Invasion Day’ (46%). Support for the date being known as ‘Invasion Day’ has increased by 8% points from a year ago – the largest change in any of the six States.

There is significant divergence between Australia’s Capital Cities and those in Country Regions. A declining majority of 59% (down 4% points on a year ago) of people in Capital Cities say January 26 should be known as ‘Australia Day’ compared to 41% (up 4% points) opting for ‘Invasion Day’.

In Country Regions the difference is far starker with well over two-thirds (71%, up 2% points on a year ago) saying the day should be known as ‘Australia Day’ compared to 29% (down 2% points) for ‘Invasion Day’.

Michele Levine CEO Roy Morgan, says support for January 26 remaining as ‘Australia Day’ has held largely steady over the last year with the support of 64% of Australians compared to 36% who are in favour of calling the day ‘Invasion Day’:

“The issue of Australia Day is once again on people’s minds and similarly to a year ago just under two-thirds of Australians (64%) say they support January 26 being known as ‘Australia Day’ compared to 36% who say the day should be known as ‘Invasion Day’.

“There is strong support for continuing to regard January 26 as ‘Australia Day’ amongst men (71% in favour), people aged 65+ (81%) and 50-64 (73%), people in Country Regions (71%) and in the states of Western Australia (71%) and Queensland (69%).

“Of the major party voters it is unsurprisingly L-NP supporters (74% in favour) who are the strongest proponents of leaving Australia Day as it is but almost two-thirds of ALP supporters (63%) also support January 26 remaining as ‘Australia Day’.

“There is softer support for retaining January 26 as ‘Australia Day’ amongst women (58% in favour), people in Capital Cities (59%), people aged 35-49 (59%) and especially people in Victoria who are almost split down the middle on the issue (54% in favour of ‘Australia Day’ and 46% who say it should be known as ‘Invasion Day’).

“However, there are several key demographic groups who disagree and say January 26 should be known as ‘Invasion Day’ led by younger Australians aged under 25 (56% in favour of ‘Invasion Day’), people aged 25-34 (53%) and almost two-thirds of Greens supporters (63%).

“The issue has taken on added importance this year with the Albanese Government’s stated commitment to a referendum on ‘The Voice to Parliament’ set to be held later this year. There are even protest marches organised for Australia Day this year against the proposed referendum question by indigenous activists who say there should be a Treaty before there is a ‘Voice to Parliament’.

“A special Roy Morgan SMS Poll on the proposed ‘Aboriginal and Torres Strait Voice to Parliament’ taken in mid-December shows a narrow majority of 53% of Australians in favour of ‘The Voice’, just under a third, 30%, against and 17% undecided. It’s a complicated and contentious issue.

“It is worth remembering when considering this issue that Australia Day has only been celebrated nation-wide on January 26 for less than 30 years. As recently as 1994 the Australia Day public holiday was taken on Monday January 31 – the first Monday after January 26.

“The outcome of the ‘Voice to Parliament’ referendum is likely to play a key role in discussions surrounding Australia Day and whether it remains on January 26 in the years ahead.”

This special Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey was conducted with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,231 Australians aged 18+ on the weekend of Friday January 20 – Monday January 23, 2023. Of those surveyed 4% of respondents suggested neither or something else for the day.

Australians surveyed were asked about their view of Australia Day:

Question 1: “On January 26, 1788, Captain Arthur Phillip landed at Sydney Cove. In your opinion should January 26 be known as Australia Day or Invasion Day?” Australia Day 64% (down 1% point from a year ago) cf. Invasion Day 36% (up 1% point).
Question 2: “And why do you say that?”

Question 1:

On January 26, 1788, Captain Arthur Phillip landed at Sydney Cove. In your opinion should January 26 be known as Australian Day or Invasion Day?

By Gender & Age

	Jan. 25, 2021	Jan. 24, 2022	Jan. 20-23, 2022	Gender		Age
	Jan. 25, 2021	Jan. 24, 2022	Jan. 20-23, 2022	Men	Women	Under 25	25-34	35-49	50-64	65+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Australia Day	59	65	64	69	58	44	47	59	73	81
Invasion Day	41	35	36	31	42	56	53	41	27	19
TOTAL	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

On January 26, 1788, Captain Arthur Phillip landed at Sydney Cove. In your opinion should January 26 be known as Australian Day or Invasion Day?

By States & City/Country

		Areas		States
	Australians 18+	Capital Cities	Country Regions	NSW	VIC	QLD	WA	SA	TAS#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Australia Day	64	59	71	66	54	69	71	61	66
Invasion Day	36	41	29	34	46	31	29	39	34
TOTAL	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

#Sample sizes with fewer than 50 respondents should be treated with caution.

On January 26, 1788, Captain Arthur Phillip landed at Sydney Cove. In your opinion should January 26 be known as Australian Day or Invasion Day?

By Party Vote (Federal)

	Electors	Party Vote
	Electors	L-NP	ALP	Greens	Ind./Others	Can’t say
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Australia Day	65	74	63	37	80	63
Invasion Day	35	26	37	63	20	37
TOTAL	100	100	100	100	100	100

(Roy Morgan)

January 24, 2023

Source: https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9162-roy-morgan-survey-australia-day-january-24-2023

779-43-20/Polls

‘Mortgage Stress’ Increases To Highest Since July 2013; 23.9% Of Mortgage Holders Now ‘At Risk’

New research from Roy Morgan shows an estimated 1.1 million mortgage holders (23.9%) were ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in the three months to December 2022. This period encompassed three interest rate increases of 0.25% taking official interest rates to 3.1% in early December – the highest official interest rates for a decade since December 2012.

However, despite the sharp increase in the level of mortgage stress during the last year the overall number remains well below the high reached during the Global Financial Crisis in early 2009 of 35.6% (1,455,000 mortgage holders).

‘Mortgage stress’ dropped to record lows during 2021 as record low interest rates, tens of billions of dollars of Government stimulus, and the measures taken by banks and financial institutions to support borrowers in financial distress combined to reduce the number of mortgage holders considered ‘At Risk’.

The number of mortgage holders considered ‘Extremely At Risk’, has now increased to 666,000 (15.0%) in the three months to December 2022 which is now in line with the long-term average over the last 15 years of 659,000 (15.9%).

Mortgage Stress – Owner-Occupied Mortgage-Holders

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia), average interviews per 3 month period April 2007 – December 2022, n=2,716.
Base: Australians 14+ with owner occupied home loan.

Mortgage Risk set to increase to over 1.2 million (26.3%) mortgage holders by March 2023

Official RBA interest rates are now at a decade high of 3.1% and following this week’s ABS CPI figure for December 2022 of 7.8% are expected to increase again at the RBA’s next meeting in early February.

Roy Morgan has modelled the impact of two potential RBA interest rate increases of +0.25% in each of the next two months of February (+0.25% to 3.35%) and March (+0.5% to 3.6%).

In December 23.9% of mortgage holders, 1,100,000, were considered ‘At Risk’ and with expected future interest rate increases to come this is set to increase to over 1-in-4 mortgage holders by March 2023.

If the RBA raises interest rates by +0.25% in February to 3.35% there will be 24.7% (up 0.8% points) of mortgage holders, 1,139,000, considered ‘At Risk’ in February 2023 – an increase of 139,000.

If the RBA raises interest rates by a further +0.25% in March to 3.6% there will be 26.3% (up 2.4% points) of mortgage holders, 1,213,000, considered ‘At Risk’ in March 2023– an increase of 213,000.

It is worth understanding that this is a conservative model, essentially assuming all other factors remain the same. And of course we are already seeing an increase in unemployment (Australian unemployment increased to 9.3% in December in line with the usual seasonal trends – January 19, 2023).

The greatest impact on an individual, or household’s, ability to pay their mortgage is not interest rates, it’s if they lose their job or main source of income.

Mortgage Risk at different level of interest rate increases

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia), Oct - Dec. 2022, n=3,550. Base: Australians 14+ with owner occupied home loan.

How are mortgage holders considered ‘At Risk’ or ‘Extremely At Risk’ determined?

Roy Morgan considers the risk of ‘mortgage stress’ among Mortgage holders in two ways:

Mortgage holders are considered ‘At Risk’[1] if their mortgage repayments are greater than a certain percentage of household income – depending on income and spending.

Mortgage holders are considered ‘Extremely at Risk’[2] if even the ‘interest only’ is over a certain proportion of household income.

[1] "At Risk" is based on those paying more than a certain proportion of their after-tax household income (25% to 45% depending on income and spending) into their home loan, based on the appropriate Standard Variable Rate reported by the RBA and the amount they initially borrowed.

[2] "Extremely at Risk" is also based on those paying more than a certain proportion of their after-tax household income into their home loan, based on the Standard Variable Rate set by the RBA and the amount now outstanding on their home loan.

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says mortgage stress is continuing to increase in Australia as the RBA continues to lift interests and is set to mean over 1.2 million mortgage holders will be considered ‘At Risk’ if the RBA raises interest rates in each of the next two months:

“The latest Roy Morgan data shows mortgage stress in the Australian housing market has continued to increase with 1.1 million mortgage holders (23.9%) defined as ‘At Risk’ in December 2022, up 358,000 on a year ago before the RBA began hiking interest rates.

“The figures for December 2022 take into account all eight of the RBA’s interest rate increases so far which have lifted official interest rates from 0.1% in early May to end the year at 3.1% – the highest level of official interest rates for exactly a decade since December 2012.

“For the first time in this cycle of interest rate increases the proportion of mortgage holders considered ‘At Risk’ has increased above the long-term average of 22.8% and is at its highest for nearly a decade since May 2013.

“The latest ABS CPI figures for the year to December 2022 show Australian inflation hitting a 33 year high of 7.8% – the highest March 1990 (7.8%). The rising inflation level in Australia, and all the indications from the RBA, suggest interest rates will increase again when the RBA meets again in February by +0.25% and again in March by another +0.25% to 3.60%.

“If the RBA does raise interest rates again in the next two months by a total of 0.50% Roy Morgan forecasts that mortgage stress is set to increase to over 1.2 million mortgage holders considered ‘At Risk’ by March 2023 – 26.3% of all mortgage holders.

“Of more concern is the rise in mortgage holders considered ‘Extremely At Risk’, now estimated at 666,000 (15.0%) in December 2022 – the highest since July 2017 (15.1%) more than five years ago.

“When considering these figures on mortgage stress it is always important to take into account that interest rates are only one of the variables that determines whether a mortgage holder is considered ‘At Risk’. The variable that has the largest impact on whether a borrower falls into the ‘At Risk’ category is related to household income – which is directly related to employment.

“The latest figures on mortgage stress show that as long as employment levels remain strong the number of mortgage holders considered ‘At Risk’ will not increase to anywhere near the levels experienced during the Global Financial Crisis in 2007-08-09 when a peak of 35.6% of mortgage holders were considered ‘At Risk’ in May 2008.

“The latest Roy Morgan employment estimates show a near-record 13.6 million Australians were employed in December 2022, up by over 650,000 since February 2020 when there were 12.9 million employed pre-pandemic. The strong growth in the jobs market has attracted more Australians into the labour force and there are now over 1.38 million unemployed Australians (9.3% of the workforce) compared to 1.17 million pre-pandemic.”

(Roy Morgan)

January 27, 2023

Source: https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9148-mortgage-stress-risk-early-2023

MULTICOUNTRY STUDIES

779-43-21/Polls

The Age Of The Grandparent Has Arrived, A Survey Among 10 Nations

The most saccharine song of 1980 was “There’s No One Quite Like Grandma”, performed by the St Winifred’s School choir from Stockport, England. It shot to the top of the British charts as kids everywhere gave it to granny for Christmas. “Grandma, we love you,” they sang. “Grandma, we do. Though you may be far away, we think of you.”

Listen to this story. Enjoy more audio and podcasts on iOS or Android.

Today, as the once-cherubic choristers start to become grandmas and grandpas themselves, grandparenting has changed dramatically. Two big demographic trends are making nana and gramps more important. First, people are living longer. Global life expectancy has risen from 51 to 72 since 1960. Second, families are shrinking. Over the same period, the number of babies a woman can expect to have in her lifetime has fallen by half, from 5 to 2.4. That means the ratio of living grandparents to children is steadily rising.

Surprisingly little research has been done into this. The Economist could not find reliable figures for how many living grandparents there are, so we asked Diego Alburez-Gutiérrez of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research in Germany to produce some estimates by crunching un age and population data with models of kinship structures in each country.

We found that there are 1.5bn grandparents in the world, up from 0.5bn in 1960 (though the further back one goes, the fuzzier the estimates become). As a share of the population they have risen from 17% to 20%. And the ratio of grandparents to children under 15 has vaulted from 0.46 in 1960 to 0.8 today.

By 2050 we project that there will be 2.1bn grandparents (making up 22% of humanity), and slightly more grandparents than under-15s. That will have profound consequences. The evidence suggests children do better with grandparental help—which usually, in practice, means from grandmothers. And it will help drive another unfinished social revolution—the movement of women into paid work.

Since fertility rates and life expectancy vary enormously from country to country, the age of the grandparent has not yet dawned everywhere (see chart 1). They are 29% of Bulgarians but only 10% of Burundians. Their average age varies widely, too, from 53 in Uganda to 72 in Japan (see chart 2). To understand what a difference plentiful grandparents make, a good place to start is in a country where they are still scarce.

Consider Senegal. Most rural Senegalese are subsistence farmers. Although fertility has dropped from 7.3 babies per woman in 1980 to 4.5 today, large families remain the norm. Children under 15 outnumber living grandparents by 3.5 to 1.

Amy Diallo, an 84-year-old matriarch wrapped in a blue and white hijab, has to think carefully when asked how many she has. “Thirty,” she concludes, looking up from her cross-legged position on the floor of her home in Tally Boubess, outside Dakar, the capital, on a street where horses and carts jostle with sheep and cars.

As the oldest member of her family, she commands respect. She offers moral guidance to the young: be honest and pious, uphold tradition and stop hitting your younger brother. Every year she leads a family pilgrimage to Tivaouane, a Muslim holy city, with children, grandchildren, great-grandchildren and various in-laws, perhaps a hundred in all.

Grandparents pass on traditional beliefs, stories, songs and a sense of history. More prosaically, they bring an extra pair of hands. That helps both parents and children. A study in rural Gambia, for example, found that the presence of a maternal grandmother significantly increased a child’s chance of living to the age of two. In sub-Saharan Africa the odds of being in school are about 15% higher for children living with a grandfather and 38% higher for children who live with a grandmother.

As for Mrs Diallo, she has never worked outside the home. But she has helped some of her offspring to do so. Ndeye, one of her daughters, got a job in an office despite having eight kids herself, because Mrs Diallo helped out with the children.

Yet for all her sense of love and duty, Mrs Diallo cannot babysit all 30 grandkids. The state offers little help. Unlike Ndeye, many of Mrs Diallo’s daughters and granddaughters have never worked outside the home. This is common: barely a third of working-age women in Senegal are either in work or seeking it. Grandparents in the poorest countries do their best, but there are not enough of them.

She’s there in times of need

In richer places, fertility has fallen much further than in Africa. A typical Mexican woman, for example, can expect to have only two children, down from nearly seven in 1960. Mexico’s ratio of living grandparents to children is three times higher than Senegal’s. Mexican abuelas thus have more time to lavish on each grandchild.

Irma Aguilar Verduzco lives with her daughter, also called Irma, and two grandchildren, Rodrigo and Fernanda. She cooks, does school runs and reads with her grandchildren. Ever since he was three, Rodrigo, now 16, has liked to take a cup of coffee and sit down for a chat with his grandmother. Fernanda, now 12, still likes to get into bed with her. Irma junior, meanwhile, has long worked 12-hour days, currently as a manager at the Maya Train, a big rail project. She is divorced, and says her ex-husband “does not help”. She “could not have done anything” without Irma senior’s help.

Grandmothers are the main source of non-parental child care for young children in Mexico, especially since covid-19 forced many nurseries to close. They watch over nearly 40% of sprogs under six. Before grandma moved in, Irma was struggling. “There is no understanding or flexibility for working mothers in Mexico,” she complains. Her kids were often home alone. “Sometimes I paid people to look after them but it was hard to afford and hard to trust people.” One day, years ago, Rodrigo came home from nursery with a broken bone; Irma suspects mistreatment. With her mother around, she feels relaxed.

Miguel Talamas of the Inter-American Development Bank and his colleagues have tried to estimate how much Mexican grandmothers help their daughters get paid work. They looked at what happened to families after grandmothers die. An abuela’s death reduced by 27%, or 12 percentage points, the chance that her daughter was in the labour force, and reduced her earnings by 53%. (The same study found no effect on the employment rate of fathers.)

Living with grandparents is not always easy. They may have outdated ideas or demand too much deference. In India, where couples traditionally live with the husband’s parents, a genre of television drama turns on the fraught relations between wives and mothers-in-law. A study of rural Indian women in 2018 found that those who lived with their mummyji (mother-in-law) had little freedom. Only 12% were allowed to visit friends or relatives alone.

A grandma who enforces old-fashioned norms of wifely subjugation can make it harder for her daughter-in-law to work outside the home. But an intriguing study finds that on average, this effect is outweighed by the help the mother-in-law gives with domestic chores. Such help has become more concentrated as India’s fertility rate has fallen, from six in 1960 to just over two today. Madhulika Khanna of Amazon and Divya Pandey of 3ie, a think-tank, looked at what happened to Indian women if mummyji died. They found the daughters-in-law were 10% less likely to do or seek paid work, probably because they had to spend more time collecting firewood and minding their children. Even overbearing grandmothers can inadvertently do their bit for female emancipation.

Rich countries generally provide services that help women juggle child-care and work. But many parents seek extra help from grandparents nonetheless. Old-age pensions help, by allowing grandparents to give up work. According to one survey, 50% of very young children, 35% of primary-school-aged children and 20% of teens in America spend time with their grandparent in a typical week.

This can make a big difference. Janice Compton of the University of Manitoba and Robert Pollak of Washington University crunched American census data and found that living within 25 miles of a grandmother raised the labour-force participation rate for married women with small children by 4-10 percentage points.

“Granny nannying”, as some call it, can have downsides, too. A British study found grandparents are more likely to leave their wards near fire hazards than nurseries or nannies. Studies from America, Britain, China and Japan suggest that a child around grandparents is more likely to be obese, though whether this is due to spoiling or other factors is unclear.

To us a book she’ll read

And although grandmas help daughters return to the workforce, that often means withdrawing from it themselves. “There is a clear trade-off,” says Mr Talamas. Back in Mexico, Hermelinda Coapango Vázquez works as a manicurist but takes appointments only at times that fit around caring for her grandson. “My grandson is my life,” she says. “I don’t have a partner and I am not one for having lots of friends.” A study from Brazil found that when children aged 0-3 were randomly assigned formal child care, the family collectively earned more, mainly because grandparents and older siblings were freed up to work.

Another pitfall is that families that rely heavily on grandma for child-care are less likely to move and find a better job. A study by Eva Garcia-Moran of the University of Wurzburg and Zoe Kuehn of the Autonomous University of Madrid found that west German women who lived near their parents in-laws earn about 5% less and commute for longer than their peers.

Children parented solely or mostly by grandparents tend to be worse off than their peers. In America, where roughly 2% of children are raised primarily by a grandparent, Laura Pittman of Northern Illinois University found more emotional and behavioural problems among such adolescents than their peers. That is perhaps not surprising. If children are not living with their parents, it is often because something has gone badly wrong: a father in jail; a mother dead or incapable. In these circumstances, living with a grandparent is usually far better than the alternatives.

Katie Clark, a 68-year-old from Baton Rouge, Louisiana, has had sole custody of one grandchild and has temporarily cared for five others because of her daughter’s addiction to opiates. She took charge of her daughter’s first baby soon after she was born. About 12 years later, the daughter arrived, homeless, with five more. She abandoned her children in Katie’s home, before returning with police to demand them back. The daughter currently has custody of the five children, and Katie fears she is neglecting them again. The child raised entirely by Katie is now at university.

In rural China, grandparents help reduce the harm caused by the government. Under the apartheid-like hukou (household registration) system, rural Chinese who move to cities are treated as second-class citizens. Their children are barred from local public schools, so they are often left behind with their grandparents in their parents’ home village. But rural schools are often dire. Grandparents, though well-meaning, are often barely literate. Scott Rozelle of Stanford University finds that more than half of toddlers in rural China are cognitively delayed, partly because their grandparents do not realise that it is important to talk to them.

In Chinese cities the story is different. The one-child policy (which became a three-child policy in 2021) was always enforced more strictly in cities than the countryside. So many urban families consist of four grandparents, two parents and just one child. Thus, there is no shortage of caring hands. Urban children often live with grandparents during the week and see their hard-working parents on weekends.

Nurseries are pricey and distrusted in China. Grandmothers often retire in their 50s to watch over the precious only grandchild. This works well enough. The labour-force participation rate for Chinese women is, at 62%, slightly higher than America’s. “If you want to give your child a good education, you have to work hard to earn a lot of money,” says Zhou Bao, an architect and mother in a “4-2-1” family who has used both sets of grandparents for child-care. But “in the process of making money, you can lose the time spent with your child.” And she expresses a common fear that grandparents tend to spoil their only grandchildren. “They can be too attentive,” she says, “making them less independent.”

The Communist Party promotes traditional values, such as family members caring for each other so the state does not have to. In Beijing the government even set up a school in 2005 to teach grandparents how to look after children better. But the next generation may not wish to shoulder the same responsibilities. Few middle-class parents today expect to be bringing up their children’s children in a few decades, reckons Dan Wang of Hang Seng Bank. If they opt out of grandparenting, that could make it harder for their daughters to combine motherhood and work, fears Ms Dan.

Just stays a little while

Overall, looking after kids appears to be good for grandparents. Those who spend time with their grandchildren report lower levels of depression and loneliness. But one can have too much of a good thing. Youngsters can be exhausting, frustrating and objectionable. A study in Singapore, with mainly ethnically Chinese families, found that many looked after their grandchildren more out of duty than because they relished it. Many find it harder as they age. Some are squeezed in the “grandsandwich generation”—relied upon to help both their grandchildren and their own ailing parents. Some hanker for a more relaxing retirement. Grandma Irma in Mexico admits she would like to travel more as her grandchildren grow more independent.

One place where grandparents have plenty of time to relax is Sweden, where a strong welfare state means parents seldom rely on them. For each child, a Swedish couple can take 16 months of parental leave, for most of which the state pays them most of their previous wages. (The man must take three months, or they are lost; many split the time off equally.) Afterwards, there are subsidised nurseries, and the norm is for both parents to go back to work. Since child-care is everywhere, Swedes find it relatively easy to move cities to find a better job.

“Once in a while a grandparent might pick up a kid from pre-school or babysit, but not always,” says Andreas Bergh of Lund university. Rather than allow a daughter to go back to work, grandparents might enable her to go out to dinner with her husband. Grandparental help is “a bonus”, says Andreas Heino of Timbro, a think-tank in Stockholm.

HPCBP2 RAJASTHAN, INDIA - NOVEMBER 20, 2016: Five young grandchildren with their elderly grandparents when their parent is at work.

A lot on her plate

Subsidies for parental leave are so generous that even entrepreneurs take a fair chunk of it. Sandra Kastås runs two companies in Stockholm. When her son was born in 2021 she took two months off, then spent a year working half-time, as did her husband, an it specialist. Despite her hectic schedule, Mrs Kastås expects no regular help from her parents. They live on Gotland, a remote island, and do not visit often. Her mother “shows her love by sending gifts”, such as books and jumpers she has knitted. She talks to her grandson, on FaceTime. “He hugs the phone when she calls. It’s cute,” says Mrs Kastås.

Most Swedes are happy with their system. But some of the elderly complain of loneliness. Nearly half of Swedish households consist of one person, the highest level in Europe after Finland. In a population of 10.4m, some 900,000 people are over 60 and living alone. Of these, a fifth are considered socially isolated, meaning they do not meet friends or family more than twice a month. During the pandemic, Swedes joked darkly that it would be easy to isolate the elderly because “We don’t visit our grandparents much anyway.” Immigrants from places such as Africa or the Middle East are often shocked at how atomised Swedish families are.

Lars Tragardh, a historian, praises Sweden’s “statist individualism”. The state looks after people as individuals, so they can make their own choices and not have to rely on others, he says. Parents elsewhere envy the help that their Nordic peers receive, despite the higher taxes needed to pay for it. Still, even the most generous welfare state cannot offer love.

Helena Paues, who works for an association of local authorities in Sweden, describes how her father enjoys taking her dyslexic son, Wille, to museums. “He loves facts and science. I think his grandfather has taken him to all the museums in Stockholm: the science museum, the Viking museum, and so on. They have a very close bond. My father also struggled with learning to read and write when he was young.”

In the summer, the grandkids stay at their grandparents’ summer house, swim in the lake, and drink lemonade in a tree house. They clamour to do the same thing every year. Ms Paues says her father instils values such as respect for others. “He doesn’t need to talk about it, he does it by being himself. He teaches them that their opinions matter, because he listens to them.” She concludes: “As a child, you need more grown-ups than just your parents.”

(The Economist)

January 12, 2023

Source: https://www.economist.com/international/2023/01/12/the-age-of-the-grandparent-has-arrived

779-43-22/Polls

Many Countries In Europe Get A New Government At Least Every Two Years, A Survey Among 23 Countries

The United Kingdom had three different prime ministers in 2022, including Liz Truss, who served for only 49 days. Truss’ brief tenure raises the question: How long do governments in Europe tend to last?

Overall, most of the European countries analyzed have seen changes in government at least once every two years. But governments in Belgium, Finland and Italy often haven’t lasted even a single year. In these countries, the median length of government since World War II has been less than 365 days – far less than the full constitutional terms afforded to a new government.

On the other end of the spectrum, Luxembourg has had the longest median length of government among the countries analyzed: more than four and a half years. Governments in Luxembourg have also come the closest to reaching their full constitutional terms (five years, in Luxembourg’s case).

Most EU countries are parliamentary democracies and, depending on the country, hold regular national elections every four or five years. In parliamentary democracies, the party (or parties) that wins the most seats in parliament forms the government (or cabinet) and selects the head of state. The length of government in this analysis is defined as the number of continuous days that the government remains in power before the next national election.

If a government has shifted into a “caretaker” role, meaning the administration operates with a limited legislative mandate, it is considered a new government in this analysis. For example, in Germany, former Chancellor Angela Merkel’s 16-year reign is broken down into five distinct governments: three governments consisting of traditional four-year terms; one caretaker government that lasted half a year as Merkel struggled to form a government; and a final three-and-a-half-year term once she eventually succeeded in building a coalition. (Read “How we did this” for more about the methodology of this analysis.)

How we did this

This Pew Research Center analysis compares the median length of government across parliamentary systems in the European Union and the UK since the end of World War II. The data used to calculate the lengths and types of governments as well as each country’s election history is drawn from ParlGov (accessed November 2022), a clearinghouse for cross-national political information.

Our definition of “length of government” is based on ParlGov’s tracking of cabinets. In their data, a new cabinet is recorded following one or more of the following events: a change of party within the existing cabinet, any change of prime minister or head of government, or any general election. We include caretaker governments, defined as “cabinets with a limited legislative mandate.” (Read more country-specific information and examples of how ParlGov codes changes in government.)

ParlGov has a record of cabinets going back as far as the country is considered fully democratic, per Boix et al.’s dichotomous classification (2013). We begin our tracking with the first cabinet in office post-World War II (on or after Sept. 2, 1945), then use official government websites to assess the status of governments through Dec. 31, 2022. Any manual changes to the data are listed below:

In the Czech Republic and Slovakia, we calculate the length of government based on cabinets since 1993 – when they became independent sovereign states – rather than 1990, when ParlGov’s data on these countries begins.
In Malta, tracking begins with the government in power in 1964, when the island became a nation independent of British rule.
In Italy, Sweden, Latvia, Denmark, the UK and Bulgaria, we updated the list of governments to reflect recent changes in government not yet added to the database, which was last updated on Sept. 9, 2022. Dates were verified using official government websites in each country.

How do governments transition?

Once a government fails – whether through a vote of no confidence, a resignation or the restructuring of a cabinet – a new one forms in one of two ways:

Coalition building: In parliamentary democracies, it can be common to form or re-form governments between scheduled elections. For example, although the UK had three prime ministers in 2022, the transitions occurred without the general public going to the polls. This type of process has occurred in every country included in this study and has been particularly common in Belgium, Estonia, Finland, Italy, Latvia, Poland and Slovenia, where there have been at least two government transitions per election term (four or five years), on average.
Snap elections: If a government collapses before an election is scheduled to occur, countries may call “snap elections” to form a new government. For example, in 2022, Slovenia had its first regularly scheduled election in over a decade after holding snap elections in 2011, 2014 and 2018. In 2022, two of the 23 countries included in this study – Bulgaria and Italy – held snap elections.

For comparison, while Bulgaria and Slovakia’s governments have tended to last roughly the same amount of time (1.17 and 1.16 years, respectively, on average), Slovakia has been able to form and re-form coalitions without elections much more frequently than Bulgaria. And some countries, like Italy, have frequently formed governments through coalition building and held snap elections.

Who leads as a government transitions?

Some transitions involve caretaker governments. For example, the current prime minister of Bulgaria, Galab Donev, and his government are serving in a caretaker capacity after a vote of no confidence in the previous administration.

The Netherlands has had more caretaker governments than any other country in this analysis, with 11 since World War II. Current Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte has been in office for nearly 12 years, but of the seven consecutive governments he has led, three have been in a caretaker capacity. Most recently, he headed a caretaker government for 360 days from January 2021 to January 2022 – setting a postwar Dutch record. Belgium and Bulgaria have the next-highest counts of caretaker governments, with nine and eight, respectively. Finland and Austria follow with seven each.

In Luxembourg, even caretaker governments have tended to last long. Although the country has had caretaker governments on only two occasions since World War II, the median length of a caretaker government in Luxembourg is just over 10 months (309 days). Other countries with median lengths greater than six months include Italy, the Netherlands, the Czech Republic and Spain.

Belgium stands out for having the longest-lasting caretaker government of any country studied. Yves Leterme’s third government acted in a caretaker capacity for nearly a year and a half (541 days) between 2010 and 2011. Italy’s longest caretaker government was the only other one to surpass 500 days, with the government of Mario Monti holding power for 528 days in the wake of the European debt crisis.

(PEW)

JANUARY 25, 2022

779-43-23/Polls

Global Agreement On The Need To Fight Climate Change, A 36-Country Survey

The survey analyzes views and opinions related to the perception of climate change in 2022 and the importance of sustainable development worldwide.

Main concerns worldwide

There are many issues related to the future that people worry about. According to the survey, one of the main concerns for citizens worldwide is their personal or household economy (30%), followed by the economic situation of their countries (23%). On a regional overview, Middle East is the region with more individuals concerned about their country’s economic situation, while Europe registers the lowest percentage on this indicator (19%), being the personal finance the aspect that concern the most (31%).

Global warming is a serious threat for mankind

While the vast majority of people in every country agrees on considering global warming a serious threat for mankind, the share slightly decreased compared to previous waves. In 2022, 83% of citizens agree or somewhat agree with global warming being a serious threat for mankind, -3% vs. 2021 (86%) and -2% vs. 2020 (85%). Women believe global warming is a serious threat to mankind more so than men (86% vs. 81% respectively). Regarding the countries, United States (24%) and Poland (21%) have the highest percentage of population that does not consider global warming a serious threat for the humanity.

It is not too late to stop global warming

Individuals’ perception of whether something can still be done to stop global warming varies from very optimistic to very pessimistic. For 45% of the respondents, it is already too late to be able to do anything about climate change, a share that slightly increased compared to previous years, meaning the population is getting more pessimistic about it (2021: 43%; 2020: 40%).

Africa and Americas are the world regions where people believe to a greater extent that something can still be done to curtail climate change (60% and 54% respectively believe it is not too late), whereas citizens in Middle East region are the most pessimistic (only 41% believes it is not too late). Kenyans stand out as the most optimistic, with 87% of respondents considering that it is not too late to curtail climate change, in contrast with Philippians (23%), Indians (28%) and Italians (40%), who are the least optimistic.

Governments are not taking the necessary actions to take care of the environment

Additionally, 55% of the respondents feel that governments are not taking the necessary actions to take care of the environment (higher than 2021, which was 51%). It is noteworthy that 62% of the respondents from the APAC region consider that their government is taking the necessary measures to care for the environment, in contrast to the rest of the world. Kenya, Paraguay and Croatia stand out as the countries that consider that their governments are not doing much to take care of the environment.

(WIN)

29 Jan 2023

Source: https://winmr.com/global-agreement-on-the-need-to-fight-climate-change/