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BUSINESS
& POLITICS IN THE WORLD GLOBAL
OPINION REPORT NO. 775 Week: December 26, 2022 – January
01, 2023 Presentation: January 06, 2023 1
In 5 Pakistanis Say That The Availability Of Drinking Water At Their Child’s
School Is Bad China’s
FMCG Spend Rises By A Further 3.1% Pharmacy
Users In England Are Currently Satisfied With Pharmacy Services The
Average Check Of Russians Before The New Year Was Lower Than Last Year War
In Ukraine Cited By Canadians As Top International News Story Of 2022 (71%) Opportunities
For Science, Technology And Innovation Open Up In Bogotá Only
10% Of The European Population States That They Have Never Taken Supplements INTRODUCTORY NOTE
775-43-15/Commentary:
One
In Ten Women Say They Have Had Their Drink Spiked (To Spike A Drink Means To
Put Alcohol Or Drugs Into Someone's Drink Without Their Knowledge Or
Permission)
Four in 10 Britons say
they do not think the police would believe them if they reported a drink
spiking As Britons get set to hit the bars, pubs and clubs
to see in the new year, YouGov figures have revealed the extent to which
people say they have ever had their drink spiked. Drink spiking is the adding of alcohol or drugs to
another person’s drink without their knowledge or permission. The aim may be
to incapacitate someone enough to rob or sexually assault them. A new YouGov survey shows that 10% of women say they
have personally had a drink spiked. Meanwhile, 8% say someone in their family
has had a drink spiked, while 10% say a friend has had a drink spiked. One in
seven women (14%) say someone else they know has been a victim of spiking. In
total, 35% of women say they have either had a drink spiked themselves or
know someone who has, or both. Among men, 5% say they have had a drink spiked,
while 7% say members of their family have had their drink spiked. One in
eight men (12%) say a friend of theirs has had their drink spiked and a
further 11% say someone else they know has had a drink spiked. More than a
quarter of men overall (28%) say they know someone who has had a drink spiked
or have experienced it themselves.
Nearly half of those aged between 18 and 24 (48%)
say they have had a drink spiked or know someone who has. However, it is
those aged between 25 and 49 who are the most likely to say they have
personally had a drink spiked (11%).
How confident do people
feel that reports of drink spiking would be taken seriously? When it comes to how confident Britons are that
police would believe them if they reported having their drink spiked, they
are split over the issue. Four in ten Britons (40%) are very or fairly
confident the police would believe them, but this includes only 8% who say
they are “very confident” they would be taken seriously. Equally, 40% are not
very or at all confident the police would believe them, including 15% who are
“not confident at all”. Britons also have little faith that a venue would
believe them if they told them they had a drink spiked there. Only 29% are
confident that a venue would take them seriously if they had a drink spiked
there compared to 42% who are not very or at all confident a venue would
believe a report of drink spiking under its roof. There is, however, more faith among the British
public that friends and family would take an incidence of drink spiking
seriously. Eight in ten Britons (80%) are confident that both their friends
and their family would believe them if they told them their drink had been
spiked. Half (51%) are “very confident” their family would believe them and
44% say the same about their friends.
(YouGov UK) December 28, 2022 ASIA (Pakistan) 1 In 5 Pakistanis Say That The
Availability Of Drinking Water At Their Child’s School Is Bad A nationally
representative sample of adult men and women from across the country who have
schoolgoing children in their household was asked the following question
regarding, “On a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 is “very bad” and 5 is “very good”,
how would you rank each of the following services provided to your child by
their school?- Availability of drinking water for kids in school” 10% said it
is very bad, 9% said it is bad, 15% said the availability of drinking water
for kids in school is normal, 44% said that this service is good while only
18% said that it is very good. (Gallup Pakistan) December 29, 2022 (China) China’s FMCG Spend Rises By A Further 3.1% Spend on groceries in
urban China was up by 3.1% during the 12 weeks to 7 October 2022, compared
with the same period last year. This growth was mainly driven by shoppers in
the east of the country, where value sales rose 5.2% year-on-year. Consumers
maintained their stockpiling behaviour as COVID outbreaks continued, with
those in the east spending the most per trip. Value sales in hypermarkets and
large supermarkets fell by 4.1% and 4.5% respectively compared to a year ago,
while in small supermarkets and convenience stores value rose by 12.5% and 9%
respectively, driven by growing baskets and an expanding consumer base. (Kantar) 27 December 2022 WEST EUROPE (UK) One In Ten Women Say They Have Had Their Drink
Spiked (To Spike A Drink Means To Put Alcohol Or Drugs Into Someone's Drink
Without Their Knowledge Or Permission) As Britons get set to hit
the bars, pubs and clubs to see in the new year, YouGov figures have revealed
the extent to which people say they have ever had their drink spiked. A new
YouGov survey shows that 10% of women say they have personally had a drink
spiked. Meanwhile, 8% say someone in their family has had a drink spiked,
while 10% say a friend has had a drink spiked. One in seven women (14%) say
someone else they know has been a victim of spiking. In total, 35% of women
say they have either had a drink spiked themselves or know someone who has,
or both. (YouGov UK) December 28, 2022 A New YouGov Survey Has Revealed That One In
Five Britons (21%) Say They Will Make A New Year’s Resolution For 2023 As we bid farewell to
2022, many Britons will be taking the opportunity to make some New Year’s
resolutions. A new YouGov survey has revealed that one in five Britons (21%)
say they will make a New Year’s resolution for 2023, compared to just one in
seven (14%) who say they made a resolution for 2022. The younger generation
are the most likely to vow to make some changes for the new year, with four
in ten 18-24 year olds (41%) saying they’ll make a resolution for 2023
compared to just one in nine of those aged 55 and over (11%). (YouGov UK) December 28, 2022 Pharmacy Users In England Are Currently
Satisfied With Pharmacy Services In England, small chain or
independent pharmacies are the most commonly contacted or visited by the
public (41%), followed by large or medium sized pharmacy chains (35%).
However, their usage is not a frequent occurrence with only around
one-quarter (26%) saying they contact or visit a pharmacy at least monthly,
either for themselves or someone they care for. Meanwhile, one in five (20%)
say they do not normally contact or visit a community pharmacy. In general,
pharmacy users are habitual when it comes to contacting or visiting a
pharmacy: around three-quarters (73%) say they tend to use the same community
pharmacy. (Ipsos MORI) 29 December 2022 (Russia) The Average Check Of Russians Before The New
Year Was Lower Than Last Year Research holding Romir
presents data on the weekly spending index (WPI) and the weekly average bill
index (WIN). In the period from December 19 to 25, the average weekly
expenses of Russians increased by 2.0% compared to the previous week. Weekly spending index amounted
to 6,346 rubles. In annual dynamics, the index rose by 0.1%. The average check index increased
by 4.0% compared to the previous week and amounted to 745 rubles in monetary
terms. Compared to the same period last year, the average check is 1.2%
lower. (Romir) 29 December 2022 NORTH AMERICA (USA) In Recent Decades, The U S Drinking Rate Has
Consistently Registered Near The Long-Term Average Of 63% The percentage of U.S.
adults aged 18 and older who say they drink alcohol averaged 63% over the
past two years, whereas 36% described themselves as “total abstainers.” The
drinking rate ticks up to 65% when narrowed to adults of legal drinking age,
which is 21 and older nationwide. Relatedly, drinking also differs by
education, with college graduates (76%) and postgraduates (75%) the most
likely to report they drink. This is followed by nearly two-thirds of those
with some college education (65%) and about half of those who haven’t
attended college (51%). (Gallup) DECEMBER 29, 2022 (Canada) War In Ukraine Cited By Canadians As Top
International News Story Of 2022 (71%) A new Ipsos poll conducted
on behalf of Global News finds that Canadians cite some of the major
conflicts occurring this year as the most memorable news stories which shaped
2022. Overwhelmingly, Canadians point to the war in Ukraine as the top
international news story of 2022 (71%). Following this, rising interest rates
and inflation around the world this year (40%) have been deemed most
noteworthy, perhaps only exacerbated by current concerns about the potential
for a recession in 2023. (Ipsos Canada) 28 December 2022 Almost Two Thirds Of Canadians (64%) Rate 2022
As Good For Themselves And Their Family, But Only A Third (34%) Would Say The
Same For The World As
2022 comes to an end, Canadians are reflecting on the events of the past
year. Although a sense of post-pandemic and work-life normalcy have warranted
cautious optimism - high inflation, rising interest rates and uncertain
geopolitics have weighed down Canadians’ year-end outlook. Indeed, a recent
poll conducted by Ipsos on behalf of Global News has shown that Canadians
look back unevenly on this last year for themselves, the country and the
world. Around two thirds (64%) say 2022 was ‘good’ for themselves and their
family, half (51%) say the same for Canada, and only a third (34%) think this
was a good year for the world. (Ipsos Canada) 30 December 2022 (Bogota) Opportunities For Science, Technology And
Innovation Open Up In Bogotá With the contribution to
collective construction and in which actors from academia, civil society
organizations, the public and business sectors participated, Probogotá
prepared a long-term document, in which it is highlighted that one of the
objectives is the construction of an integral link between CteI –Science,
Technology and Innovation– and urban-regional development. The region of
Bogotá and Cundinamarca forms the economic and business center of the
country. Here are 32% of all companies in Colombia. In 2021, the total number
of registered and renewed companies in Bogotá and the 59 municipalities of
the jurisdiction of the Bogotá Chamber of Commerce in the department of
Cundinamarca reached 470,579 companies. (CNC) 28 December 2022 AUSTRALIA One Of Australia’s All-Time Favourite TV
Campaigns Will Be Back On Our Screens From New Year’s Day, Bigger And Better
Than Ever A
group of Norm’s closest friends have recreated the iconic original TV ads,
originally envisioned by Phillip Adams and created by legendary artist, Alex
Stitt in 1975. The original campaign is still fondly
remembered by almost all Aussies who remember the seventies which was largely
funded by the Victorian Government. Considered possibly the most
effective health initiative ever in Australia, the ads promoted the simplest
messages (like get up off the couch
and get active) without preaching or being accusatory in the
least. (Roy Morgan) December 29, 2022 MULTICOUNTRY STUDIES War In Ukraine Destroys Russia's Reputation And
Leaves It At Record Lows; Study Carried Around 33 Nations Shows Before the invasion of Ukraine , almost half
(45%) of people worldwide thought that Russia would have a positive influence
internationally, currently that percentage has fallen 16 points, to
29%. It is clear that Russia's public image has suffered a significant
decline in the immediate aftermath of its invasion of Ukraine nearly nine
months ago, and as the invasion drags on, expectations that Russia will have
a positive influence on world affairs have been diminishing. In
fact, it is the only country or
international institution that has shown a dropped series . (Ipsos Spain) December 28, 2022 Only 10% Of The European Population States That
They Have Never Taken Supplements The Covid-19 pandemic has
brought with it an increase in concern for health and self-care, as
confirmed by the Ipsos study "European attitudes towards food
supplements" . In the last three years, food supplements and
vitamins have become an essential part of the lifestyle of consumers in
Europe., partly as a reinforcement to achieve some immunity against
covid. Almost nine out of ten (88%) people in Europe have consumed a
food supplement at some point in their lives, and the vast majority of them
(93%) have consumed it in the last 12 months, this figure being higher in the
last 12 months. Eastern European countries, such as the Czech Republic (97%),
Romania (97%), Slovenia (96%) and Poland (98%), and also in Finland (94%). (Ipsos Spain) December 29, 2022 Covid-19 Restrictions Feed Economic Contraction
To Drive Down Living Standards In Africa, A Study In 34 African Countries Across 34 countries
surveyed in 2019/2021, six in 10 respondents (61%) reported facing shortages
of medicine or medical services at least once in the previous 12 months, and
nearly as many experienced shortages of clean water (55%) and food (52%).
Nearly four in 10 experienced shortages of cooking fuel (46%) (Figure 1). 1
The weighted Mozambique Round 8 sample is nationally representative except
that it excludes rural Cabo Delgado, comprising 6.3% of the adult population
of Mozambique. (Afrobarometer) 30 December 2022 ASIA
775-43-01/Polls 1 In 5
Pakistanis Say That The Availability Of Drinking Water At Their Child’s
School Is Bad
According to a survey
conducted by Gallup & Gilani Pakistan, 1 in 5 Pakistani say that the
availability of drinking water at their child’s school is bad. A nationally
representative sample of adult men and women from across the country who have
schoolgoing children in their household was asked the following question
regarding, “On a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 is “very bad” and 5 is “very good”,
how would you rank each of the following services provided to your child by
their school?- Availability of drinking water for kids in school” 10% said it
is very bad, 9% said it is bad, 15% said the availability of drinking water
for kids in school is normal, 44% said that this service is good while only
18% said that it is very good. Question: “On a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 is
“very bad” and 5 is “very good”, how would you rank each of the following
services provided to your child by their school? – Availability of drinking
water for kids in school”
(Gallup Pakistan) December 29, 2022 Source:
https://gallup.com.pk/wp/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/29-Dec.pdf 775-43-02/Polls China’s FMCG
Spend Rises By A Further 3.1%
Spend on groceries in
urban China was up by 3.1% during the 12 weeks to 7 October 2022, compared
with the same period last year. This growth was mainly driven by shoppers in
the east of the country, where value sales rose 5.2% year-on-year. Consumers
maintained their stockpiling behaviour as COVID outbreaks continued, with
those in the east spending the most per trip. Modern trade growth
stagnates – and diverges Value sales in
hypermarkets and large supermarkets fell by 4.1% and 4.5% respectively
compared to a year ago, while in small supermarkets and convenience stores
value rose by 12.5% and 9% respectively, driven by growing baskets and an
expanding consumer base. Sun Art Group held an 8.1%
market share in last 12 weeks and maintained its leading position, yet lost
0.5pts in their value share compared to last year. In the latest trading
report, the group reported a 2.2% drop in revenue and 0.2% drop in Same Store
Sales Growth (SSSG). Meanwhile, the offline revenue of its new 2.0 store
transformation achieved a double-digit growth. Yonghui Group followed in the
second place, with 5.6% market share. Thanks to the expansion of Sam’s Club,
Wal-Mart Group gained 0.2pts share year on year and became the third largest
retailer, holding 5.3% share of the national market in last 12 weeks. Lockdowns drive further
ecommerce growth Spend on FMCG via the
ecommerce channel grew by 7.5% in urban China compared with the same period
last year, driven by consumers in upper-tier cities accelerating their demand
for online shopping as lockdown created the need to keep their pantries
stocked. Almost three quarters (71.6%) of urban Chinese households purchased
FMCG through ecommerce platforms in the 12-week period.
Alibaba Group leads the
core players, despite losing 2.8% market share compared to the same time last
year, dropping to 37.1%. JD Group gained 0.3%, growing its share to 15.9%,
while also increasing its consumer base. The expansion of social commerce
platform Pinduoduo appeared to retrench: its market share fell to 9.7%,
representing a loss of 1.3%. Meanwhile, the short video
platforms are developing rapidly by attracting new users, and Douyin’s
penetration is catching up with that of JD: 18.1% of urban Chinese households
placed orders for FMCG on Douyin in the past 12 weeks, more than double the
figure from last year. Both Douyin and Kuaishou are expanding their market
share rapidly, year on year. For China’s influential
Double 11 online shopping festival this year, platforms focused more on
strengthening connections with consumers rather than only on making sales.
This proved effective: Alibaba reported that more than 300 million users
watched its Taobao livestreaming in the lead up to the big day, for example.
In addition, O2O platforms played an active part in Singles’ Day promotions,
fuelling growth for the bricks-and-mortar stores. If you would like to learn
more about the evolution of China’s FMCG market, please get in touch with our
experts or access our data visualisation tool to explore current and
historical grocery market data. (Kantar) 27 December 2022 Source:
https://www.kantar.com/inspiration/fmcg/china-fmcg-spend-rises-by-a-further-3-1 WEST
EUROPE
775-43-03/Polls One In Ten Women Say They Have Had Their Drink
Spiked (To Spike A Drink Means To Put Alcohol Or Drugs Into Someone's Drink
Without Their Knowledge Or Permission)
Four in 10 Britons say
they do not think the police would believe them if they reported a drink
spiking As Britons get set to hit the bars, pubs and clubs
to see in the new year, YouGov figures have revealed the extent to which
people say they have ever had their drink spiked. Drink spiking is the adding of alcohol or drugs to
another person’s drink without their knowledge or permission. The aim may be
to incapacitate someone enough to rob or sexually assault them. A new YouGov survey shows that 10% of women say they
have personally had a drink spiked. Meanwhile, 8% say someone in their family
has had a drink spiked, while 10% say a friend has had a drink spiked. One in
seven women (14%) say someone else they know has been a victim of spiking. In
total, 35% of women say they have either had a drink spiked themselves or
know someone who has, or both. Among men, 5% say they have had a drink spiked,
while 7% say members of their family have had their drink spiked. One in
eight men (12%) say a friend of theirs has had their drink spiked and a
further 11% say someone else they know has had a drink spiked. More than a
quarter of men overall (28%) say they know someone who has had a drink spiked
or have experienced it themselves.
Nearly half of those aged between 18 and 24 (48%)
say they have had a drink spiked or know someone who has. However, it is
those aged between 25 and 49 who are the most likely to say they have
personally had a drink spiked (11%).
How confident do people
feel that reports of drink spiking would be taken seriously? When it comes to how confident Britons are that
police would believe them if they reported having their drink spiked, they
are split over the issue. Four in ten Britons (40%) are very or fairly
confident the police would believe them, but this includes only 8% who say
they are “very confident” they would be taken seriously. Equally, 40% are not
very or at all confident the police would believe them, including 15% who are
“not confident at all”. Britons also have little faith that a venue would
believe them if they told them they had a drink spiked there. Only 29% are
confident that a venue would take them seriously if they had a drink spiked
there compared to 42% who are not very or at all confident a venue would
believe a report of drink spiking under its roof. There is, however, more faith among the British
public that friends and family would take an incidence of drink spiking
seriously. Eight in ten Britons (80%) are confident that both their friends
and their family would believe them if they told them their drink had been
spiked. Half (51%) are “very confident” their family would believe them and
44% say the same about their friends.
(YouGov UK) December 28, 2022 775-43-04/Polls A New YouGov Survey Has Revealed That One In Five
Britons (21%) Say They Will Make A New Year’s Resolution For 2023
As we bid farewell to 2022, many Britons will be
taking the opportunity to make some New Year’s resolutions. A new YouGov
survey has revealed that one in five Britons (21%) say they will make a New
Year’s resolution for 2023, compared to just one in seven (14%) who say they
made a resolution for 2022. The younger generation are the most likely to vow to
make some changes for the new year, with four in ten 18-24 year olds (41%)
saying they’ll make a resolution for 2023 compared to just one in nine of
those aged 55 and over (11%).
For the
fourth consecutive year, doing more exercise or improving their fitness
tops the list for more than half of Britons (53%) who intend to make a
resolution for 2023. Health dominates the top three plans that Britons have
for the new year with 43% saying they plan to lose weight and the same
proportion resolving to improve their diet. Health-based resolutions are more popular among
women with 57% of those intending to make resolutions planning to do more
exercise or improve their fitness compared to 47% of men. Losing weight is
also a more popular resolution for women (46% compared to 40% of men) as well
as improving their diet (45% of women compared to 39% of men).
In the biggest change year-on-year in terms of resolutions,
four in ten Britons who are making resolutions (41%) say they want to save
more money, up from 30% who resolved to put more money into their savings in
2022. This resolution is also more important to women with 46% saying they
hope to save money as part of their plans for 2023 compared to 34% of men. In another increase from last year, 18% of those
making resolutions for the new year plan to decorate or renovate part of
their home, up eight percentage points from last year. One in five women (20%)
plan to spruce up their home in 2023, an increase of 11 percentage points
from the previous year How many Britons kept
their 2022 New Year’s resolutions? A New Year’s resolution isn’t just for January,
however, of those who made resolutions at the end of 2021, only 28% of them
say they kept all of them. Just over half (53%) say they managed to keep some
but one in six (17%) admit they didn’t keep any of their resolutions. While a similar percentage of men (11%) and women
(17%) made resolutions for 2022, among people who made resolutions, men are
nearly twice as likely to claim they kept all of their resolutions than women
are (40% vs 21%).
(YouGov UK) December 28, 2022 775-43-05/Polls Pharmacy Users In England Are Currently Satisfied
With Pharmacy Services
Pharmacy users in England are currently satisfied
with pharmacy services, and would be comfortable with them providing certain
new services, according to the Public
Perceptions of Community Pharmacy Survey conducted by Ipsos
for NHS England. Use of community
pharmacies In England, small chain or independent pharmacies
are the most commonly contacted or visited by the public (41%), followed by
large or medium sized pharmacy chains (35%). However, their usage is not a
frequent occurrence with only around one-quarter (26%) saying they contact or
visit a pharmacy at least monthly, either for themselves or someone they care
for. Meanwhile, one in five (20%) say they do not normally contact or visit a
community pharmacy. In general, pharmacy users are habitual when it comes to
contacting or visiting a pharmacy: around three-quarters (73%) say they tend
to use the same community pharmacy. Awareness and use of
pharmacy services Pharmacies are known to offer a multitude of services;
primarily, providing medicines prescribed by a doctor (78%), selling
medicines like paracetamol or eye drops to treat minor illness (72%), and
providing advice, about both medicines (64%) and about minor health problems
(61%). Indeed, of the various health services or sources of information
available , the public identify pharmacies as the organisations they would be
most likely to go to if they needed information and advice on medicines (68%)
or information and advice on a minor condition such as a sore throat or
earache (54%). Base: All respondents living in England who have
contacted or visited a pharmacy in the last year (n= 1,680). Survey conducted
via Ipsos KnowledgePanel Fieldwork 20th -27th July 2022.
In line with this, when asked what services
community pharmacies should offer (outside of the obvious services, like
dispensing prescribed medicines), the key services identified are providing
advice about both minor health problems (71%) and medicines (67%). However,
these are closely followed by a number of routine services that are currently
primarily viewed as services provided by GP practices, such as offering flu
vaccines (64%) and checking blood pressure (64%). This suggests that there is
public appetite for using community pharmacies for some functions they would
currently be seen as the domain of GP practices, representing a clear
opportunity for expanding the services pharmacies offer. Confidence and
satisfaction with community pharmacies Pharmacy users in England report positive experiences
of community pharmacies. For example, on their last visit to a community
pharmacy, most feel they were treated with respect (87%), were able to get
what they needed (87%) and thought that the facility was clean and well
maintained (87%). Similarly, those who have used a pharmacy in the
last year for advice about medicines, a health problem or injury, or what
health service they should use, are overwhelmingly positive about the quality
of the advice that they received. Nearly all (91%) say that they received
good advice and just 3% say that it was poor. There are high levels of confidence in a pharmacist
prescribing medication independently of a doctor or nurse when prescribing
medicines a person has had before (77%) and for medication they are currently
prescribed (70%). However, this confidence falls to 56% if the medication
being prescribed is something they have not taken before. Level of comfort with new
pharmacy services In general, the public would feel comfortable with
community pharmacies offering the new services that were asked about, though
there is some variation.
Infographic
(Ipsos MORI) 29 December 2022 Source: https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/public-perceptions-community-pharmacy 775-43-06/Polls The Average Check Of Russians Before The New Year
Was Lower Than Last Year
Research holding Romir presents data on the weekly
spending index (WPI) and the weekly average bill index (WIN). In the period from December 19 to 25, the average
weekly expenses of Russians increased by 2.0% compared to the previous
week. Weekly spending index amounted
to 6,346 rubles. In annual dynamics, the index rose by 0.1%.
The average check index increased
by 4.0% compared to the previous week and amounted to 745 rubles in monetary
terms. Compared to the same period last year, the average check is 1.2%
lower.
WPI (weekly spending
index) of the research holding Romir
shows the dynamics of the volume of consumption of consumer goods by Russians
and is calculated for each calendar week based on the Romir Unified Data
Panel. INSCh (index of weekly
average check) of the research holding
Romir shows the dynamics of the cost of household purchases and is calculated
for each calendar week based on data from the Romir Unified Data Panel. (Romir) 29 December 2022 Source: https://romir.ru/studies/romir-sredniy-chek-rossiyan-pered-novym-godom-okazalsya-nije-proshlogodnego NORTH
AMERICA
775-43-07/Polls In Recent
Decades, The U S Drinking Rate Has Consistently Registered Near The Long-Term
Average Of 63% The percentage of U.S. adults aged 18 and older who
say they drink alcohol averaged 63% over the past two years, whereas 36%
described themselves as “total abstainers.” The drinking rate ticks up to 65%
when narrowed to adults of legal drinking age, which is 21 and older
nationwide. Since 1939, Gallup has asked Americans whether they
“have occasion to use alcoholic beverages such as liquor, wine or beer” or if
they are “a total abstainer.” Across the trend, the percentage saying they
drink has dipped as low as 55% (in 1958) and risen as high as 71% (in the
1970s). However, in recent decades, the U.S. drinking rate has consistently
registered near the long-term average of 63%.
Drinking Varies Most by
Financial Means The drinking rate among U.S. adults
differs more by household income than by any other standard demographic
characteristic. According to the 2021-2022 data, 80% of adults aged 18 and older living in
households earning $100,000 or more say they drink, far exceeding the 49% of
those earning less than $40,000. The rate among middle-income earners falls
about halfway between, at 63%. Relatedly, drinking also differs by education, with
college graduates (76%) and postgraduates (75%) the most likely to report
they drink. This is followed by nearly two-thirds of those with some college
education (65%) and about half of those who haven’t attended college (51%).
Religiosity Also a Factor
in Likelihood That People Drink Whether people drink also varies
significantly by their religiosity. Adults who attend their church or other
place of worship weekly (50%) are less likely than less-frequent attenders (63%) and nonadherents
(69%) to say they drink. By contrast, religious denomination is not a strong
factor in use of alcohol. Protestants are the least-likely major religious
category in the U.S. to say they ever drink alcohol. However, the 60% of Protestants
who in 2021-2022 reported they drink is only modestly lower than the 68%
among U.S. Catholics and 67% among those with no religious affiliation.
Men, Younger and White
Adults More Likely to Drink Than Their Counterparts In contrast to the wide variations seen by income
and religiosity, alcohol consumption varies only slightly by gender, with 66%
of men versus 61% of women saying they ever have occasion to drink. Drinking is more common among younger than older
adults, but this is evident only when the analysis is limited to those of
legal drinking age. Whereas 60% of adults aged 18 to 29 say they drink, the
rate is 71% among those aged 21 to 29. That matches the percentage of 30- to
49-year-olds who drink (70%), while it exceeds the rate among those 50 to 64
(64%) and 65 and older (54%). Among the nation’s largest racial and ethnic groups,
White adults aged 18 and older (68%) are more likely than Hispanic adults
(59%) or Black adults (50%) to report they drink. A review of Gallup’s
longer-term data confirm that White adults have been consistently more likely
than Hispanic and Black adults to drink, while the rate among the last two
groups has been statistically similar.
How Much Do Drinkers
Consume? On the whole, U.S. drinkers
reported consuming a modest
amount of alcohol in 2022, averaging four drinks per week for all drinkers.
The figure rises to six drinks per week on average for those who appear to be
regular drinkers, defined as those who had at least one drink in the past
week. More specifically, when asked how many alcoholic
drinks of any kind they had in the past seven days, a third of drinkers (34%)
in 2022 said they had had none. About half (53%) said they had between one
and seven drinks, while 12% reported consuming eight or more drinks, thus
averaging more than one per day. What Is Americans’ Drink
of Choice? For many years, beer was the strong
favorite of U.S. drinkers, mentioned by close to half as the alcoholic
beverage they most often drink. It still leads, but by a thinner, four-percentage-point margin over
wine, 35% to 31%, according to the 2022 survey. Meanwhile, 30% favor liquor
-- a new high -- and 3% have no preference.
(Gallup) DECEMBER 29, 2022 Source: https://news.gallup.com/poll/467507/percentage-americans-drink-alcohol.aspx 775-43-08/Polls War In Ukraine Cited By Canadians As Top
International News Story Of 2022 (71%)
As
2022 draws to a close, many Canadians have been reflecting on the major
national and international events that have shaped this historic year. A new
Ipsos poll conducted on behalf of Global News finds that Canadians cite some
of the major conflicts occurring this year as the most memorable news stories
which shaped 2022. Overwhelmingly, Canadians point to
the war in Ukraine as the top international news story of 2022 (71%).
Following this, rising interest rates and inflation around the world this year (40%) have been
deemed most noteworthy, perhaps only exacerbated by current concerns about
the potential for a recession in 2023.[i] Two international stories are tied for third place:
the death of Queen Elizabeth II, the longest-reigning monarch in British
history, in September (34%), and COVID-19 (34%), the latter of which may
still be on Canadians’ radars in light of the lifting of restrictions and the
availability of the bivalent vaccine this fall. One in five Canadians (19%)
say the overturn of Roe v. Wade and abortion rights in the United States was
among the top news stories of the year, with no significant differences
across age or gender. Although significant cultural events, in light of
such major international conflicts and threats to daily life for many around
the world, Canadians are less likely to cite the first James Webb space
telescope images as a top international news story (3%), nor were the Winter
Olympics particularly memorable (3%).
Canadians of different demographic groups have
varying perspectives on what was most noteworthy in 2022. Older Canadians age
55+ are significantly more likely to say the war in Ukraine was a top news
story of 2022 (83% vs. 64% 35-54 and 65% 18-34), while Canadians in their
prime working and family-formation years are more likely to cite rising
interest rates and inflation (50% 35-54 vs. 41% 55+ and 26% 18-34). Younger
Canadians are more likely to say billionaire Elon Musk’s acquisition of
Twitter was a top news story this year (19% 18-34 vs. 8% 35-54 and 5% 55+).
By gender, women are significantly more likely than men to cite the death of
Queen Elizabeth II (38% vs. 30%), and the children’s medication shortage
currently worrying parents in many parts of the world (14% vs. 9% men).
By contrast, men are more likely to cite ongoing protests in Iran (10%
vs. 3% women). Freedom Convoy Top News
Story of 2022 in Canada Closer to home, six in ten (62%) Canadians say the
disruptive Freedom Convoy protests of January and February constitutes the
top news story shaping the country this year. Closely aligned in second and
third place are the Rogers Communications major service outage of July, which
impacted millions of Canadians, including businesses and government offices
(37%), and Charles III becoming King of Canada at Rideau Hall in September
(35%). Storm chips at the ready,[ii] one-quarter
(23%) of Canadians say post-tropical storm Fiona hitting the east coast in
September was a top news story in the country. Mention of Fiona, a storm
which left thousands of Atlantic Canadians without power in its wake, is
highest in Atlantic Canada in particular (58%) and outranks the Freedom
Convoy (56%) as top Canadian news story of 2022 in this region. Nationally, not far behind ranks Pierre Poilievre’s
win of the 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election in September
(22%). Erin O’Toole’s removal as Conservative Party leader, however, is
comparatively not as memorable (7%).
In terms of demographic differences, older Canadians
are more likely to have found the Freedom Convoy protest notable (73% 55+ vs.
56% 35-54 and 55% 18-34), as well as post-tropical storm Fiona (31% 55+ vs.
19% 35-54 and 16% 18-34) and Pierre Poilievre’s leadership win (29% 55+ vs.
20% 35-54 and 16% 18-34). Younger Canadians are more likely to have found
conversion therapy becoming illegal in the country in January 2022
significant (14% 18-34 vs. 6% 35-54 and 3% 55+). Women (43%) are more likely
than men (30%) to cite the Rogers Communications outage, while men are more
likely than women to cite Poilievre’s win (27% men vs. 18% women) and
O’Toole’s removal as party leader (9% men vs. 4% women). Regionally, Ontarians are most likely to say
Canada’s qualification for the FIFA World Cup this year is a top news story
(28% ON vs. 23% BC, 20% AB, 15% QC, 13% SKMB, 10% ATL). Given her roots in
Nova Scotia, it is unsurprising that Atlantic Canadians are more likely than
those in other regions to cite Mattea Roach’s winning streak in Jeopardy! this past spring as
notable (14% ATL vs. 10% BC, 5% AB, 5% ON, 4% QC, 3% SK/MB). Significant national and international events have
marked 2022 as one for the history books. As the year enters its final days,
Canadians will be looking ahead to see what 2023 might have in store, and
whether it will bring just as many newsworthy developments and surprises as
previous years. (Ipsos Canada) 28 December 2022 Source: https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/war-in-ukraine-cited-as-top-international-news-story-2022 775-43-09/Polls Almost Two Thirds Of Canadians (64%) Rate 2022 As
Good For Themselves And Their Family, But Only A Third (34%) Would Say The
Same For The World
As
2022 comes to an end, Canadians are reflecting on the events of the past
year. Although a sense of post-pandemic and work-life normalcy have warranted
cautious optimism - high inflation, rising interest rates and uncertain
geopolitics have weighed down Canadians’ year-end outlook. Indeed, a recent
poll conducted by Ipsos on behalf of Global News has shown that Canadians
look back unevenly on this last year for themselves, the country and the
world. Around two thirds (64%) say 2022 was ‘good’ for themselves and their
family, half (51%) say the same for Canada, and only a third (34%) think this
was a good year for the world. Improved but uneven
outlook on the country and the world
Age appears to be a key driver of
optimism, specifically at the personal level. Those aged 55+ are more likely
to rate these past
three years as good for themselves and their family: 69% (vs. 51%: 18-34;
58%: 35-54) for 2020, 68% (vs. 54%: 18-34; 56%: 35-54) for 2021 and 75% (vs.
63%: 18-34; 54%: 35-54) for 2022. Similarly, Quebecers appear significantly
more optimistic compared to other regions on a personal scale: 79% for 2020
(+19 pts compared to the national average), 77% for 2021 (+17 pts compared to
the national average), 77% for 2022 (+13 pts compared to national average). Even if 2022 was better than the last two years,
Canadians are split on their assessment on how this year turned out. Indeed,
half (50%) of Canadians agree 2022 was better than they thought it would be
(6% strongly, 44% somewhat) while the other half (50%) disagree (33%
somewhat, 17% strongly). Regionally, residents of Alberta and Saskatchewan
and Manitoba are more likely to fall on the pessimistic side of the coin (AB:
66%; SK/MB: 69% vs. 43%: BC; 50%: ON; 45%: QC; 39%: ATL). Furthermore, Canadians appear to be tempering their
optimism by signaling their apprehension for the uncertain economic
situation. Three quarters (75%) agree that 2022 has made them more fearful
for an upcoming recession (21% strongly, 54% somewhat), which is higher among
households with kids (83% vs. 73% for households without kids). Moreover,
only 44% agree that they were able to save enough money this year while a
majority disagrees (56%) – this proportion is higher among women (61% vs. 51%
for men) as well as those aged 35-54 (69% vs. 51%: 18-34; 48%: 55+). Finally,
three in ten (30%) agree this year has made them fearful for their job
security, which is higher among those aged 18-34 (52% vs. 35%: 35-54; 9%:
55+). Finally, among working Canadians, more than a third (36%) agree this
year has made them fearful for their job security, which is higher among
those aged 18-34 (49% vs. 35%: 35-54; 18%: 55+). Personal stability and
cautious optimism Taking stock of the past three years, most Canadians
haven’t experienced significant shifts in their outlook of their personal
lives and remain generally optimistic. In 2022, over three quarters (77%,
unchanged) rate their personal happiness as good, while a similar proportion
say the same for their health (75%, -1). Two thirds rate their social life
(66%, -3) and financial situation (64%, -2) as good, while six in ten (59%,
+1) say the same for their sex or romantic life. Thinking about these
various aspects of your life, would you rate them to be good or bad? % Rating Very/Somewhat
Good
Again, age appears to be a significant driver of
optimism on an individual scale. Those aged 55 and over are more likely to
positively rate their financial situation (80% vs. 53%: 18-34; 55%: 35-54),
their personal happiness (86% vs. 74%: 18-34; 72%: 35-54) and their social
life (72% vs. 62% for both 18-34 and 35-54). Stability at the individual level is also echoed in
Canadians’ yearly personal reviews, registering only slight variations.
Continuing its downward trend since the lockdowns of 2020, a quarter (24%,
-3) say they have struggled with their mental health. Similarly, the number
of Canadians who’ve worked from home for an extended period of time has also
continued to steadily decrease (10%, -5) since 2020, which is also the case
for those who say they’ve consumed more alcohol over the last year (12%, -2).
Tellingly, those who’ve selected ‘none of the above’ (18%) has increased by 4
points since last year, suggesting some return to normalcy. Thinking about the past 12
months, which of the following apply to you personally?
Unfortunately, stability isn’t synonymous with
improvement, especially among certain socio-demographic groups. 47% (-1)
still say they cut spending this year. Women (29% vs. 18% for men) and
younger age groups (18-34: 35%; 35-54: 29% vs. 10%: 55+) are more likely to
have struggled with their mental health over the last year, which is also the
case for residents of Saskatchewan and Manitoba (45%, +21 points compared to
the nation-wide average). Further, those aged 18-34 are the likeliest to say
they lost their job in 2022 (13% vs. 5%: 35-54; 2%: 55+), which is also the
case for households with kids (12% vs. 5% for households without kids). In
sum, compared to the past two years, Canadians tend to view 2022 positively -
especially when thinking of their personal lives; however, this optimism
remains cautious while reflecting on broader economic trends, and is uneven
among different generations and regions. (Ipsos Canada) 30 December 2022 Source: https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/personal-optimism-meets-global-pessimism-2022 775-43-10/Polls Opportunities For Science, Technology And Innovation
Open Up In Bogotá
With the contribution to collective construction and
in which actors from academia, civil society organizations, the public and business
sectors participated, Probogotá prepared a long-term document, in which it is
highlighted that one of the objectives is the construction of an integral
link between CteI –Science, Technology and Innovation– and urban-regional
development. In the document called "Visión Bogotá Región Inteligente
2051", a long-term planning and prospective exercise is developed that
seeks to connect capacities and take advantage of knowledge and collective
effort to promote and develop city initiatives, leveraged on innovation,
information and technology that improve the quality of life of the
inhabitants of Bogotá and the region, with criteria of environmental and
economic sustainability. María Carolina Castillo, president of Probogotá,
assured that "Probogotá Region, structured the Bogotá Intelligent Region
Vision by 2051 as a platform that seeks to identify synergies between actors
to promote the regional agenda in terms of smart cities and territories and
specify strategic projects that materialize it. ”.
Challenges
The greatest challenges in terms of
territorial intelligence do not reside in the application of physical and
digital infrastructure to support technological development; The biggest
challenges are found in digital appropriation, information governance and the generation of
soft skills to make responsible, ethical and effective use of these tools. In
the Vision, a series of recommendations are proposed that are oriented not
only to improve the connectivity and coverage of digital services in the region,
but also to establish institutional structures and public-private governance
arrangements to produce the necessary knowledge to manage them and make them
useful. in solving regional challenges such as mobility, waste management,
bioeconomy, climate resilience, among others. Territorializing science,
technology and innovation is essential to build an intelligent territory and
oriented towards meeting goals in terms of sustainability, progress and
well-being. The objective from the presentation of this Vision is to identify
and create networks of actors with common initiatives and agendas useful when
formulating strategies and collaborative projects that fulfill a central
objective: to turn the region into an intelligent territory. We are at an
opportune moment to influence the use of CTeI in the country, with the new
government and the next territorial elections and change of local leaders in
2023. The "Vision Bogotá Intelligent Region 2051" generates inputs
and recommendations that guide decision-making at the local level (municipal
development plans for the region) and regional (master plan for the
metropolitan region). The Vision also hopes to influence the concretion of
joint institutional agendas for the development of strategic projects that
stimulate and potentiate the use of CTeI to solve city-region problems, with
a strategic perspective on the regional challenges that local governments
must face. , private organizations of the ecosystem of smart cities and
territories and the instance defined for the coordination of matters of
regional interest.
The business On the other hand, this week the
Bogotá Chamber of Commerce released the Great Entrepreneurship Survey, which
makes a 360° x-ray of the business fabric, of those businesses that are
consolidated and
those that are in the growth stage. This survey, conducted in conjunction
with the Centro Nacional de Consultoría and applied to 2,272
businessmen and businesswomen, it is the only measurement in Bogotá and the
Region that makes an x-ray of the companies, their owners and those who make
decisions, which provides tools that allow guiding the construction of public
policy and strategies for strengthening business. The region of Bogotá and
Cundinamarca forms the economic and business center of the country. Here are
32% of all companies in Colombia. In 2021, the total number of registered and
renewed companies in Bogotá and the 59 municipalities of the jurisdiction of
the Bogotá Chamber of Commerce in the department of Cundinamarca reached
470,579 companies. This section presents the analysis of the behavior of
active, created, renewed and canceled companies and compares them with the
three previous years. In each section there are the figures according to the
location of the companies, their size, economic sector, location in Bogotá
and legal nature.
Economic units
According to the count carried out by DANE, in 2021,
2,548,896 economic units were identified in Colombia. Bogota represents 17.7%
of the total counted units. The economic units of the 59 municipalities
represent 60.1% of the total of Cundinamarca. Soacha, Fusagasugá, Zipaquirá
and Chía are the municipalities in the jurisdiction with the largest number
of economic units (50,081 units). In Bogotá there are, on average, 10.4
economic units per block.
11.5% of the economic units in Bogotá were
unoccupied during the survey of the economic count carried out by DANE in the
first half of 2021.
In Cundinamarca, unoccupied establishments
represented 7.7% of the total number of economic units listed. The sectoral
distribution of occupied dwellings indicates that for Bogotá there are
399,041 and, for the 59 municipalities, 75,230. Regional vision The management of the development
of Bogotá and Cundinamarca commits a regional vision and agreements between
the city and neighboring municipalities on policies and mechanisms for common
issues such as environmental sustainability, mobility and territorial planning, road
infrastructure, transport and services, that have a decisive impact on travel
times and costs and, consequently, on the sustainability and competitiveness
of the territory. 57.5% of occupied economic units carry out commercial activities
in Bogotá. In the jurisdiction of the Bogotá Chamber of Commerce (CCB),
43,145 units of the commerce sector were identified, which represent 57.4% of
the total number of occupied units in the 59 municipalities. In Bogotá, the
service sector participates with 36.4% of the total and in Cundinamarca with
38.4%. For its part, industry in Bogotá represents 5.8% of the total economic
units occupied, while in Cundinamarca it is 3.5%. Bogotá has a higher
proportion of mobile posts with 5.7%, while the 59 municipalities have 2.8%.
The 59 municipalities have the highest proportion of housing with economic
activity with 5.2%, while Bogotá has 2.8%. (CNC) 28 December 2022 AUSTRALIA
775-43-11/Polls One Of Australia’s All-Time Favourite TV Campaigns
Will Be Back On Our Screens From New Year’s Day, Bigger And Better Than Ever
A group of Norm’s closest
friends have recreated the iconic original TV ads, originally envisioned by
Phillip Adams and created by legendary artist, Alex Stitt in 1975. The new versions are all in widescreen HD and carry
the same gentle reminders to get up of the couch and exercise. All
major networks have the new TV ads on hand. They are also all accessible on
YouTube from THIS
LINK. The original campaign is still fondly remembered by
almost all Aussies who remember the seventies which was largely funded by the
Victorian Government. Considered possibly the most effective health
initiative ever in Australia, the ads promoted the simplest messages
(like get up off the couch and get
active) without preaching or being accusatory in the least. Michele Levine, CEO of Australia’s longest
established and most trusted research organisation, Roy Morgan, has
agreed to Co-Chair Life Be In It™ with
the existing Chairman, Dr Colin Benjamin OAM. Roy Morgan, the Foundation Partner in the
rejuvenation of this important community health initiative has announced a
new Index to track Australians’ health. ‘The
Life Be In It Wellness
Index’™. Roy Morgan data scientists have analysed over a quarter
of a million in-depth interviews with Australians since 2007. This exceptionally robust study shows that the
lockdowns have had a negative impact on Australians' choices in terms of food
and exercise resulting in a decline in overall health and wellbeing. Clearly, the time is right for a few friendly
reminders and to support programs aimed at helping us become healthier and
happier. It’s time to live more
of your life. Michele Levine says: “I have spent my 40 year
career in research, essentially an independent ‘observer’ – systematically
asking people questions, listening to what they say and seeking to understand
and report people’s views faithfully to ensure decision makers are making the
best possible evidence-based decisions. “I’m now delighted to be
part of what I believe will be a powerful movement – to help us all live more
of our lives and, in doing so, stave off so many of the ills of our modern
lives – and have fun doing it.” Life Be In It™, a registered Australian charity,
has an overall aim of engendering health, hope and happiness for all
Australians, with a strong focus on family, children, parents, and community. The organisation intends to have a
positive influence in five key spheres – Health, Sport and Recreation, Work,
Education & Community. Life Be In It aims
provide or support programs to:
‘Norm’ and many endearing characters of Life Be In It hit our screens from
New Year’s Day, thanks to the generosity of all major Australian television
networks who have enthusiastically embraced the relaunch campaign. (Roy Morgan) December
29, 2022 Source: https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9137-life-be-in-it MULTICOUNTRY
STUDIES
775-43-12/Polls War In Ukraine Destroys Russia's Reputation And
Leaves It At Record Lows; Study Carried Around 33 Nations Shows
We live in a context of global instability, both
economically and geopolitically, which directly influences the reputation and
influence of the different players globally. Ipsos, once again this
year, in the study carried out in 33 countries for the Halifax International
Security Forum , wanted to analyze the state of the reputation of
these actors and how this impacts their positive influence worldwide. Russia's reputation
sinks Before the invasion
of Ukraine , almost half (45%) of people worldwide thought
that Russia would have a positive influence internationally, currently that
percentage has fallen 16 points, to 29%. It is clear that Russia's
public image has suffered a significant decline in the immediate aftermath of
its invasion of Ukraine nearly nine months ago, and as the invasion drags on,
expectations that Russia will have a positive influence on world affairs have
been diminishing. In fact, it is
the only country or international institution that has shown a dropped series . Canada, Germany and France
will be the most influential countries in the next decade At the other extreme, the study shows that Canada
and Germany remain the two countries most expected to have a positive
influence for the sixth consecutive year, after tying for first place in
2016. Other historically
influential international actors China ,
another of the most relevant global players, has not managed to recover its reputation since 2020 ,
when the COVID-19 pandemic began. The global average of people who say
that China will have a positive influence on world affairs fell from 53% in
2019 to 42% in 2020, increased slightly to 43% in 2021 and is now back at
42% (Ipsos Spain) December 28, 2022 775-43-13/Polls Only 10% Of The European Population States That They
Have Never Taken Supplements
The Covid-19 pandemic has brought with it an
increase in concern for health and self-care, as confirmed by the Ipsos study "European attitudes towards
food supplements" . In the wake of the pandemic,
consumers are increasingly turning to self-care and digital and personalized
medicine to monitor their own health data and gain greater control over their
health and immunity. This boom directly affects the consumption and
sales of the pharmaceutical and food supplements sectors. Only 10% of the European population states that they
have never taken supplements. Of this group, nearly half (45%) said they
had never done it because they simply never felt the need to, and 31% said
they believed they were getting all the nutrients they needed from their
diet. Approximately one in ten respondents have never taken supplements
because they don't like to swallow pills (14%), find supplements too expensive
(12%), or don't know which supplements are right for them (10%). Medical and pharmacy
professionals, trusted prescribers The main sources of
information that consumers consult to take supplements are the recommendation
of medical professionals (40%) and pharmacists (31%) . Even
among the few European consumers who had never taken supplements or vitamins
in the past (1 in 10), almost half of them (46%) mentioned that a doctor's or
healthcare professional's recommendation to take supplements would make them
reconsider. to do so in the future. The pharmacy, the
preferred point of sale to buy food supplements Nearly two-thirds of respondents who had ever taken
food supplements had purchased them at a pharmacy (63%), while a quarter had
purchased them at a supermarket, grocery store, convenience store, or
department store. The next most common places of purchase were health
food stores or herbalists (15%), websites specializing in food supplements
and/or vitamins (15%), and brand websites (10%). According to Ester Bueno,
Ipsos Mystery Shopping Expert in Spain :“As the figures show, the pharmacy and the
pharmacist's recommendation are key when it comes to selling this type of
product without a prescription. Pharmaceutical companies know this and
invest heavily in building strong business relationships with pharmacists to
promote their OTC brands, products and innovations. Understanding how
the pharmacist interacts with customers and what they advise or recommend is
important for the success of a brand in the market, hence the relevance of
the mystery shopper at the point of sale. The best tool to monitor the
real recommendation in the pharmacy is Mystery Shopping, since through an
objective measurement all the relevant information is recorded to know if the
commercial arguments are being well conveyed, what reasons for
non-recommendation are arising in the speech, (Ipsos Spain) December 29, 2022 775-43-14/Polls Covid-19 Restrictions Feed Economic Contraction To
Drive Down Living Standards In Africa, A Study In 34 African Countries
Key findings §
Lived poverty varies widely across the continent. In Mauritius, people rarely
endured shortages of a basket of basic necessities (food, clean water, health
care, cooking fuel, and a cash income) during the previous year. At the other
extreme, the average Guinean and Gabonese reported that they frequently went
without several of these basic necessities. §
Lived poverty is clearly moving upward, reversing a decade-long trend of
steadily improving living conditions that we saw coming to an end in
Afrobarometer Round 7 surveys in 2016-2018. For countries that have conducted
the longest time series of surveys, deprivation of basic necessities captured
by our Lived Poverty Index has returned to the same levels as measured in
2005-2006. The trend is similar for “high lived poverty,” the proportion of
people who experience frequent shortages of basic necessities. §
Increases in national levels of lived poverty over the past decade tend to be
largest in countries where the economy has stagnated or contracted, as
measured by changes in GDP per capita. §
Comparing levels of lived poverty recorded in Round 7 and Round 8 surveys,
there was no statistically significant difference in the extent of change
based on whether the Round 8 survey was conducted before or after COVID-19
lockdowns. § However, among countries whose Round 8 survey
followed the first wave of COVID-19, more stringent government responses were
associated with larger increases in lived poverty. And increases in poverty
were also larger where higher percentages of respondents told interviewers
that it had been difficult to comply with these restrictions. The extent of lived poverty today To measure lived
poverty, Afrobarometer asks respondents: Over the past year, how often, if
ever, have you or anyone in your family gone without: Enough food to eat?
Enough clean water for home use? Medicines or medical treatment? Enough fuel
to cook your food? A cash income? A range of response options are offered:
“never” for those who experienced no shortages, “just once or twice,”
“several times,” “many times,” and “always.” Because these questions are
asked in all surveyed countries, we are able not only to monitor shifts in
the levels and nature of poverty over time, but also to compare experiences
across countries and regions. Large numbers of Africans fail to meet their
most basic needs. Across 34 countries surveyed in 2019/2021, six in 10
respondents (61%) reported facing shortages of medicine or medical services
at least once in the previous 12 months, and nearly as many experienced
shortages of clean water (55%) and food (52%). Nearly four in 10 experienced
shortages of cooking fuel (46%) (Figure 1). 1 The weighted Mozambique Round 8
sample is nationally representative except that it excludes rural Cabo
Delgado, comprising 6.3% of the adult population of Mozambique. Insecurity
and resulting difficulties in obtaining necessary fieldwork clearances
prevented Afrobarometer from collecting sufficient data in this area.
Measuring poverty Poverty can be measured in a number of different ways. At
the national level, all countries produce national accounts data to calculate
their gross national income (GNI), which is used to summarize national wealth
and the total state of the economy. However, some analysts have questioned
the capacity of many African countries’ national statistics systems to
generate these numbers reliably (Jerven, 2013). At the personal or household
level, national statistics offices conduct large household surveys to measure
incomes, expenditures, assets, and access to services, which are then used to
calculate national poverty lines and place individuals above or below these
lines. The United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goal 1 focusing on
reducing the number of people living on less than $1.90 a day is a good
example. However, such surveys are expensive and are conducted infrequently
in many African countries. Other development organizations’ collect data on
the consequences of poverty in a given country, such as the proportion of
people who don’t use improved drinking water sources or the proportion of
children under age 5 who are underweight. As a contribution to the tracking
of poverty in Africa, Afrobarometer offers the Lived Poverty Index (LPI), an
experiential measure that is based on a series of survey questions about how
frequently people actually go without basic necessities during the course of
a year. The LPI measures a portion of the concept of poverty that is not
captured well by other measures, and thus offers an important complement to
official statistics on poverty and development (Mattes, 2008). Because people
are the best judges of their own interests, survey respondents are best
placed to tell us about their quality of life, though they might not be able
to do it with a great deal of precision. If Amartya Sen (1999) is right and
the value of one’s standard of living lies in the living itself, an
experiential measure of shortages of the basic necessities of life takes us
directly to the central core of the concept of poverty. Reflecting the continent’s ongoing employment
crisis, the most commonly cited form of deprivation remains access to cash
income, with four-fifths (80%) reporting that they went without cash income
at least once in the previous year. While cash income is not in itself a
basic need, access to it can enable citizens to meet their basic and
non-basic needs. Income shortages therefore have many spillover effects on
people’s lives. The fact that fourfifths of Africans report having gone
without cash income at least once – and that 42% did so frequently – poses a
major development challenge, as many adults on the continent cannot afford to
buy resources for immediate use or to invest in assets. These average
figures, however, mask a great deal of variation across the continent, as
well as within societies. In terms of food, for instance, one in 10 Mauritians
(10%) experienced a shortage in the previous year, compared to three-quarters
of Liberians (73%), Zambians (75%), Nigeriens (76%), and Malawians (79%) (not
shown). Similarly, one in five Mauritians (17%) and about one in three
Ghanaians (31%) and Cabo Verdeans (34%) went without needed medicine or
clinic visits, compared to four in five citizens in Benin (78%), Zambia
(79%), Gabon (81%), Sierra Leone (82%), Liberia (83%), and Guinea (84%) (not
shown).
The Lived Poverty Index (LPI) Treating the responses
to Afrobarometer’s five “gone without” questions as a continuous scale, we
can combine them to calculate an average score for each respondent, and for
each country, that captures the overall level of a phenomenon we call “lived
poverty.” The Lived Poverty Index (LPI) score ranges along a five-point scale
from 0, for someone who never goes without any necessity, to a high of 4,
which implies an individual is experiencing a constant absence of all basic
necessities. 2 Afrobarometer describes those who score “0” ashaving “no lived
poverty,” those with scores of 0.2 to 1.0 as having “low lived poverty,”
those with scores of 1.2 to 2.0 as experiencing “moderate lived poverty,” and
those with scores above 2.0 as experiencing “high lived poverty.” The score
for the mean level of lived poverty across all 34 countries surveyed in
2019/2021 is 1.34, and the median African respondent went without each of
these basic necessities once or twice over the previous year. However, as
suggested above by the responses to specific questions, there are significant
cross-national variations around that mean. The highest index scores can be
found in Guinea (2.00), Gabon (1.93), and Benin (1.81) – the median person in
these countries experienced shortages across everything in our basket of
basic necessities several times a year. In sharp contrast, the typical person
in Mauritius (0.34) never or rarely went without (Figure 2).
High lived poverty Even more troubling is the
intensity of deprivation. Across Africa, between one in seven and four in 10
people encountered frequent shortages (“many times” or “always”) in the
previous year with respect to cash income (42%), water (24%), medicine or
medical treatment (22%), food (16%), and cooking fuel (15%). One of the
potential statistical limitations of the LPI is that it treats each
additional increment in the response scale the same (e.g. the difference
between “never” and “just once or twice” is treated the same as that between
“sometimes” and “many times”), which may not be strictly appropriate. One way
to check this is by calculating the most intense or extreme reports of
shortages – those who said they went without “many times” or “always” – and
see whether these responses follow the same general pattern across countries
as the overall index. Thus, we calculate the proportion of people who, on
average, experienced frequent shortages across each dimension. 3 Across all
34 countries, an average of nearly one in four people (22%) experienced high
lived poverty, going without food, water, medical care, cooking fuel, and
cash income on a frequent basis. High lived poverty is almost non-existent in
Mauritius (2%) and Morocco (3%), and is relatively rare in Tanzania (9%),
Botswana (7%), Cabo Verde (6%), and Ghana (4%). At the other extreme, half of
all citizens live in severe poverty in Guinea (48%), and four in 10 do so in
Gabon (43%) and Benin (38%) (Figure 3). Despite a few differences between the
country rankings for the LPI and those for high lived poverty, overall the
scores for the two scales are strongly correlated. 4 Across the 32 countries
surveyed in both Round 7 and Round 8, the mean individual level of lived
poverty increased by 0.13 points, led by the Gambia (+0.63), Nigeria (+0.46),
and Sierra Leone (+0.39) (Figure 4). Twenty countries recorded an increase of
0.08 points or more (that is, greater than the largest country-level standard
error, or .035 points), and only three countries recorded significant
reductions in lived poverty: Niger (-0.08), Togo (-0.19), and Tanzania (-0.21).
Across the same period, the proportion experiencing high lived poverty
increased by a mean of 3 percentage points across 32 countries (Figure 5).
Fourteen countries recorded an increase of 4 points or more in the proportion
of people experiencing high lived poverty. The largest increases were in the
Gambia (+22 percentage points), Nigeria (+14 points), and Sierra Leone (+11
points), showing a strong correlation with changes in the overall index
scores (see Figure 4). Three countries reported decreases of more than 4
points: Togo (-9 points), Tanzania (-5 points), and Niger (-5 points) – the
same countries that saw significant improvements in overall index scores.
Twelve countries did not record a significant change on this indicator (i.e.
they recorded only changes between +2 and -2 percentage points).
Resurgent lived poverty Examining longer-term trends
is complicated by the fact that Afrobarometer has expanded over time. Thus
different sets of countries have to be examined over different time spans.
The longest trend can be observed across the 16 countries that have been
included in each round of Afrobarometer since Round 2 (2002/2003). 5 For this
group, average LPI scores peaked at 1.27 (on a scale running from 0 to 4) in
2005/2006 and then fell consistently to a low of 1.06 in 2014/2015 (Mattes,
Dulani, & Gyimah-Boadi, 2016). However, since then, these economies have
given back almost all of their hard-earned gains. As of Round 8, their mean
LPI score again stands at 1.27, precisely where it stood in 2005/2006 (Figure
6). We can also examine larger sets of countries over shorter time frames,
and observe the same trends. Across the largest group of 30 countries that
have been included since 2011/2013, 6 the average LPI score initially fell from
1.25 to 1.14 in 2014/2015 before climbing to 1.29 in 2019/2021.
Dashed hopes: Lived poverty reduction in specific
countries? In our last report (Mattes, 2020), we identified a set of nine
countries that had exhibited real, consistent decreases in lived poverty over
at least the four previous surveys. However, once we include the 2019/2021
results, we find that compared to 2016/2018, with the exception of Burkina
Faso, poverty has now risen in each case (Figure 8)
In only three countries – Tanzania, Burkina Faso,
and Morocco – do we find sustained livedpoverty reduction compared to our
first measurements (Figure 9). The more positive patterns in these countries
may reflect government and donor investment in food security. For example, in
Tanzania, improved service delivery and social safety net programmes such as
the Tanzania Social Action Fund (TASAF) and Productive Social Safety Nets
(PSSN) may have contributed to these trends (Rosas et al., 2019). In 2019,
the World Bank reclassified Tanzania from “low income” to “lower-middle
income” country status (Battaile, 2020). In Burkina Faso, one of the poorest
countries in the world, innovations in agriculture that aim to “regreen” the
Sahel may be showing results, reportedly helping 500,000 Burkinabè to become
food secure (Eckas, 2020). At the same time, significant proportions of the
population have increasingly come under attack by non-state armed groups.
This has fuelled a humanitarian crisis and created the Sahel’s largest
displaced population – challenges that could undermine the country’s gains (ReliefWeb,
2022). Morocco, meanwhile, benefited from large increases in development
assistance over the course of the decade, with inflows more than doubling
from $940 million in aid in 2010 to a peak of $2.55 billion in 2017
(TheGlobalEconomy.com, 2022), which may help to explain the modest observed
decrease in poverty (European Court of Auditors, 2019).
Finally, in four countries – Guinea, Benin, Senegal,
and South Africa – lived poverty has, on average, increased over the last
10-20 years, and in all cases is now higher than when it was first measured
by Afrobarometer (Figure 10).
Poverty escalation: Driving trends? We know that
there are several important country-, local-, and individual-level factors
that consistently correlate with individual levels of poverty at any given
point in time. In Round 7, for instance, we found that the most important
predictors of individual levels of lived poverty were the length of time the
country had sustained democratic rule and the quality of local
service-delivery infrastructure (such as the presence and quality of water
and electricity grids and good roads), as well as individual characteristics
such as gender, age, education, occupation, and employment (Mattes, 2020).
Most of these factors, however, are relatively fixed and thus cannot account
for significant and relatively rapid national shifts in individual
well-being. Extent of democracy One factor that has shifted around the world
recently is the extent of democracy. Various projects that track the level
and quality of democracy across countries agree that we are now in a “reverse
wave of democracy” (Repucci & Slipowitz, 2022) or a period of
“autocratization” (Lührmann & Lindberg, 2019) in which the extent of
democratic regression outstrips the extent of democratic progress around the
world. Africa has not been immune to these trends, with significant
retrograde movements of democracy in places such as Benin, Senegal, Tanzania,
Mozambique, and, up until its recent election, Zambia. In order to test
whether negative trends in democracy have anything to do with recent
increases in lived poverty, we calculate the difference in Freedom House
(2022) “Status of Freedom” scores at the time of our Round 5 and Round 8
surveys and examine how these trends correlate with the resurgence in lived
poverty. We find no clear pattern (Pearson’s r=.125, p=.503) (Figure 11).
Even when we remove Tanzania, the clear outlier, the overall relationship is
still statistically insignificant. Conclusions Increasing numbers of Africans are going
without basic life necessities on a regular basis. While living standards
across Africa improved steadily between 2005 and 2015, that trend has clearly
reversed: By our measure of lived poverty, most countries surveyed by
Afrobarometer have lost the gains they achieved in the early 21st century.
Our analyses provide some evidence for two likely drivers of increasing lived
poverty: the economic contraction of the past six years exacerbated by
stringent government restrictions after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
As a result, increases in national levels of lived poverty tend to be largest
in countries where the economy has stagnated or contracted and where
government responses to the pandemic included the most severe restrictions.
While it is possible that increasing poverty is what made it difficult for
people to comply with lockdown measures, we think it is more plausible that
people’s assessments of their difficulties are telling us both about how
government requirements were experienced on the ground and about how
appropriate these requirements were given the social and economic situation
of ordinary people in that country. Thus global macroeconomic contraction did
not, according to our analysis of the data, drive up lived poverty to the
same extent as stringent restrictions on microeconomic activity. As such,
programmes geared toward poverty alleviation might yield greater success if
aimed at the micro or individual level by returning agency to ordinary
Africans. (Afrobarometer) 30 December 2022 |
