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BUSINESS
& POLITICS IN THE WORLD GLOBAL
OPINION REPORT NO.774 Week: December 19 – December
25, 2022 Presentation: December 30,
2022 BOJ
Jolts Markets In Surprise Change To Yield Curve Policy A
Third Of S’pore Adults Expect To Spend Less On Christmas Because Of The
Rising Cost Of Living Climate
Change Making Life Worse In Mauritius; Citizens Want Collective Action To
Combat It Conservatives
No Longer Most Trusted To Grow Britain’s Economy A
Large Majority Of Britons Disapprove Of The Government’s Handling Of
Immigration With
Just A Few Sleeps Until Christmas, Some Britons Hadn’t Even Started Buying
Presents Four
In Ten Britons Would Support Musk Stepping Down As Twitter CEO 62%
Of Russians Plan To Spend Up To 5 Thousand Rubles On New Year's Gifts; Romir
Study And Fix Price 32%
Of French People Have Already Given Up Applying For A Job Because Of Their
Level Of English Italians,
Between Savings And Financial Choices In
Their Own Words: Asian Immigrants’ Experiences Navigating Language Barriers
In The United States Two-In-Five
Christians And Three-In-Five Muslims Say They Read Bible And Qu’ran To Be
Closer To God Three-In-Ten
Canadians (31%) Say They’re Wearing A Mask Most Of The Time When In Public
Spaces Global
Predictions For 2023; A Study Across 36 Countries How
Can Brands Adapt For A Sustainable Festive Season; Survey Across 12 Countries Fortunately,
Hope Continues To Be Stronger Than Despair; Survey Across 36 Countries Among
23 Countries; Global Consumer Confidence Is Holding Up INTRODUCTORY NOTE
774-43-23/Commentary:
Fortunately,
Hope Continues To Be Stronger Than Despair; Survey Across 36 Countries
Although 2022 is evaluated 4 points better than the
previous year for the world, 3 out of every 4 people think that 2022 is a bad
year. In Turkey, individuals think that 2022 is a worse
year for Turkey than the world average (73%) (83%).
Countries are more desperate for 2023. While 77% of societies think that 2022 will be a
better year, this rate has decreased to 65% for 2023. Individuals in Turkey are among the 10 countries
that express the most desperate views for 2023. While 65% of individuals in
the average of countries are more optimistic for 2023, this rate is 54% in
Turkey.
In almost all countries, the view prevails that
price increases will be greater than people's incomes. The situation is similar in Turkey. 8 out of 10
people agree with this idea.
3 out of every 4 people in the world think that
inflation will be higher in 2023 than in 2022. In almost all countries, this
view is 70% and above. In Turkey, the rate of individuals stating that
inflation will be higher than 2022 is 79%.
In 2023, the rate of negative opinions about both
the Turkish economy and the personal economy is around 60%. Ipsos, Turkey CEO Sidar
Gedik made the following evaluations about the data; Recently,
we have started to encounter the term "Polycrysis", which we can
use as "Multiple Crises" in Turkish. Multiple crises are used in
definitions of multiple crises occurring at the same time, resulting in
greater damage than they would individually cause. The period we are going through is not a period of crisis,
but a period of "crises". The Covid-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine
war, high inflation are the first hot crises that come to mind, but in the
background, tensions in different geographies, polarizations for a sharpening
society, climate change and other global problems such as migration continue
to exist violently. The level at which problems are felt varies from
country to country, of course, but the vast majority feel unhappy and
hopeless. In only 4 of the 36 countries surveyed by Ipsos Global Advisor have
less than half of those who think 2022 is a bad year for the country. Those
countries are Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, China and Switzerland,
and in those countries, 44-48% think 2022 is not a good year. So this is the
case even in the most optimistic countries. Overall, three out of four say
2022 is bad for their country. In 15 of the 36 countries, this rate is over
80%. In the UK, which has had a year full of prime minister changes amid
political uncertainties, 87% of citizens say it was a bad year for the
country. 83% of the respondents from Turkey think that 2022 is a bad year for
our country. The striking part is that even this negative picture
is more positive than the previous 2 years. There is a 4-point improvement in
the average of countries compared to 2021. So this is an improved (!)
picture. Of the 36 countries, the average of those who think
2022 will be a bad year for themselves and their families is 56%. The most
negative result among the 36 countries in this title is in Turkey. 72% of the
respondents from our country state that 2022 is a bad year for them and their
families. Fortunately, hope continues to be stronger than
despair. More optimists that next year will be a better one. However, the
negative outlook for the year ending also extends to the expectations for the
year that will begin, where the optimism is gradually decreasing with an
alarming trend. Moving from 2021 to 2022, the proportion of optimists was
77%, while the rate for 2023 decreased to 65%. The rate of optimists in
Turkey decreased by 5 points compared to the previous year and became 54%. When we select high inflation among the crises, we
see that the evaluation of the participants in the research is quite
negative. Eight out of ten people think that next year prices will increase
at a higher pace than their income. This is not only a negative picture, but
one that is evolving more and more negatively, with 4% fewer people thinking
this way last year. The rate of those who think this way is 80% in Turkey. 2022 was a year in which inflation began to climb
for many countries. Even in advanced economies, inflation rates have been
measured at levels not seen for decades. In our country, it reached
unprecedented levels in the 2000s. With the shock of this situation, citizens
in the 36 countries where the research was conducted believe that inflation
will continue to rise in 2023. Three in four people think there will be even
higher inflation next year. In Turkey (although experts predict that
inflation will decrease with the base effect), the rate of citizens who think
that there will be higher inflation is 79%. According to our findings in Turkey, more than half
of the citizens believe that both the country's economy and their personal
economic situation will be worse. In this way, there is an increase in the
proportion of negative thinkers compared to last year, with six out of ten
people being pessimistic. However, there is also an increase in the
proportion of those who are optimistic about 2023. There will be an important election in 2023, with
some of the society hoping for it, while a much larger part is pessimistic.
The other finding that stands out is that in this dizzying change, those who
think that their country and personal economies will remain the same are
significantly decreasing. Of course, let's hope the optimists are vindicated. (Ipsos Turkey) December 22, 2022 Source: https://www.ipsos.com/tr-tr/neyseki-umut-umutsuzluktan-daha-guclu-olmaya-devam-ediyor ASIA (Japan) BOJ Jolts Markets In Surprise
Change To Yield Curve Policy The Bank of Japan shocked
markets on Tuesday with a surprise tweak to its bond yield control that
allows long-term interest rates to rise more, a move aimed at easing some of
the costs of prolonged monetary stimulus. In a move explained as seeking to
breathe life back into a dormant bond market, the BOJ decided to allow the
10-year bond yield to move 50 basis points either side of its 0% target,
wider than the previous 25 basis point band. (Asahi Shimbun) December 20, 2022 (Singapore) A Third Of S’pore Adults Expect To Spend Less On
Christmas Because Of The Rising Cost Of Living While this year was set to
be the first fully post-pandemic Christmas, latest YouGov data suggests that
some could be making plans for a scaled-back celebration as the rising cost
of living impacts their wallets. A third (35%) say they will spend less on
Christmas this year than they usually would, compared to one in ten (12%) who
say they will spend more than usual. One in five (20%) expect to have a
‘normal’ Christmas, although this rises to more than a quarter (27%) among
Gen Zs. (YouGov Singapore) (Indonesia) More Than Half (57%) Indonesians Still Don’t
Have Any Plans For Spending Their Free Times During This Year-End Holiday Holiday is finally here.
After being “forced” to stay at home during pandemic for about two years, the
hype to welcome this year-end holiday is rising. According to the data above,
our study figured out that more than half population (57%) still don’t have
any plans for spending their free times during this year-end holiday. On the
other side, we also found out some interesting facts such as even though
attractive promos/discounts often attract most people in Indonesia, but at
the end of this year, most Indonesians (25%) choose to visit interesting
places rather than taking benefits of many year-end sale to shop (20%). (Snapcart) AFRICA (Mauritius) Climate Change Making Life Worse In Mauritius;
Citizens Want Collective Action To Combat It More than two-thirds (68%)
of Mauritians say floods have become more severe over the past 10 years;
about half (48%) of citizens say the same about cyclones. More than seven in
10 citizens (73%) say they have heard of climate change. Among those who are
aware of climate change: o Most (86%) say it is making life in Mauritius
worse. o About nine in 10 believe that ordinary citizens can help curb climate
change (88%), and nearly two-thirds (65%) want the government to take
immediate action to limit climate change, even if it is expensive, causes job
losses, or takes a toll on the economy. (Afrobarometer) 22 December 2022 WEST EUROPE (UK) Conservatives No Longer Most Trusted To Grow
Britain’s Economy The December Ipsos
Political Monitor, taken 7-13 December shows in the aftermath of the
September mini-Budget and November Autumn Statement, and amidst ongoing
industrial unrest, the Conservatives have lost their lead over Labour on
which party is most trusted to grow the British economy. When asked which
party the public trust most to grow Britain’s economy, 29% of Britons trust
the Conservatives and 29% trust Labour (28% say no party or don’t know). In
September this year (before the mini-budget) the Conservatives led by 42% to
27%, and had been in front throughout 2022 before then. (Ipsos MORI) 19 December 2022 A Large Majority Of Britons Disapprove Of The
Government’s Handling Of Immigration Immigration and asylum is
a top-three issue for nearly a third of Britons (32%), up ten points since
October. Seven in ten Britons (72%) disapprove of the government’s handling
of immigration, including a large majority of 2019 Conservative voters (73%).
But is government disapproval more related to the quantity of migrants
or policy incompetence? Among those who disapprove of the government’s
immigration record, the top reason given is because the government is running
the system in an incompetent or chaotic way (73%). Just under half (44%)
believe the government is treating people unfairly or cruelly during the
process and 42% say they are letting too many people in. (YouGov UK) December 19, 2022 54% Lack Confidence In Quality Of Local NHS
Services For This Winter As Concerns Over Waiting Lists Intensify Six in ten, 59%, are
very/fairly confident that a friend or family member would receive good care
from local NHS services, 39% lack confidence (not very confident/not at all).
In January 2015, a time when there were also warnings about the pressure
facing the NHS over the winter, 83% were confident. Only 44% are confident
local NHS services will provide high quality care to patients during this
current winter, but 54% do not have much confidence. In January 2015, 72%
were confident, while 16% were not. (Ipsos MORI) 20 December 2022 With Just A Few Sleeps Until Christmas, Some
Britons Hadn’t Even Started Buying Presents With just a few days to go
until Christmas, around two in five Britons had bought all of the gifts
they intend to – but some last-minute shoppers were yet to buy any. By
Monday, December 19, 44% of Britons had bought everything they needed, while
29% had bought most of the gifts they want to buy and 10% had bought at least
some; 11% said they didn’t intend to buy any this season. That means that by
that day, 43% of Britons intended to buy presents but had not yet finished
their Christmas shopping. (YouGov UK) December 23, 2022 Four
In Ten Britons Would Support Musk Stepping Down As Twitter CEO Elon Musk launched a
Twitter poll this week to ask users of the platform if he should step down as
the company’s CEO. The poll saw the majority of participants say “yes”
to Musk quitting the role (58% yes vs 43% no). Shortly after, Musk
confirmed that he will step down as soon as he finds a replacement. YouGov's
polling on the issue saw four in ten Britons (40%) say they would
support the billionaire stepping down, while one in eleven (9%) say they
would oppose the move. (YouGov UK) December 23, 2022 (Romir) 62% Of Russians Plan To Spend Up To 5 Thousand
Rubles On New Year's Gifts; Romir Study And Fix Price Fix Price and Romir
conducted a joint study among Russians in various cities on the topic of
preparing for the celebration of the New Year. The survey showed that 62% of Russians
are ready to allocate up to 5 thousand rubles for New Year's gifts to loved
ones, 30% plan to keep within the amount of 5 to 10 thousand rubles, and 8%
do not mind spending more than 10 thousand rubles. 57% of respondents intend
to reduce costs this year compared to last year, the main reason for this
decision is the decline in revenues this year (42%) and the increase in
prices for goods (44%). (Romir) December 19, 2022 (France) 32% Of French People Have Already Given Up
Applying For A Job Because Of Their Level Of English Despite a slight
improvement, the French remain
critical about their own level of English: only 22% of them
(+3 points since 2019) consider it satisfactory, compared to 47% who,
conversely, have a poor level or do not speak English at all. Yet the use of English is becoming more and more
necessary. One in three workers (30%) has had exchanges in
English in the last month as part of their work (+5 points), as have 27% of
French people as part of their personal life (+3 points). (Ipsos France) December 20, 2022 (Germany) 30 Percent Of German Citizens Entitled To Vote
Say They Would Vote For The CDU/CSU If The Bundestag Election Were Held Next
Sunday 30 percent of German
citizens entitled to vote say they would vote for the CDU/CSU if the
Bundestag election were held next Sunday. This is the highest value for the
Union since June 2022. The SPD comes to 19 percent in December (18 percent in
the previous month), the Greens reach 17 percent (vs. 20 percent in November
2022). The Left Party lands at 5 percent in the Christmas month of December
(vs. 7 percent in the previous month), the FDP at 7 percent (vs. 5 percent in
the previous month), and the AfD reached 14 percent in the voting intention
of the Germans (vs. 16 percent in the previous month). (YouGov Germany) December 22, 2022 (Italy) Italians, Between Savings And Financial Choices Since 1982, Doxa has
conducted a survey on behalf of Centro Einaudi that analyzes the motivations,
objectives and choices of a representative sample of Italian savers. Here are
the main findings of the 2022 "Survey on savings and financial choices
of Italians" conducted for Intesa Sanpaolo and Centro Einaudi (2021
data). The share of households saving exceeds 53%, approaching pre-pandemic
levels. The percentage of income saved is growing: 11.5%, from 10.9% in 2021.
However, only 17% of the sample saves with a specific purpose in mind: 30% do
so for purely precautionary reasons. (BVA Doxa) December 22, 2022 NORTH AMERICA (USA) In Their Own Words: Asian Immigrants’
Experiences Navigating Language Barriers In The United States A little over half of
Asian Americans (54%) were born outside the United States, including about
seven-in-ten Asian American adults (68%). While many Asian immigrants arrived
in the United States in recent years, a majority arrived in the U.S. over 10
years ago. The story of Asian immigration to the U.S. is over a century old,
and today’s Asian immigrants arrived in the country at different times and
through different pathways. They also trace their roots, culture and language
to more than 20 countries in Asia, including the Indian
subcontinent. (PEW) DECEMBER 19, 2022 (Canada) Two-In-Five Christians And Three-In-Five Muslims
Say They Read Bible And Qu’ran To Be Closer To God A new study by the
non-profit Angus Reid Institute in partnership with Cardus finds comfort and being close with
God as some of the top reasons regular readers of sacred texts such as the
Bible, Qu’ran or Torah return to those books. This is especially the case for
Christians and Muslims in Canada. Two-in-five Christians say a main reason
they read the Bible is to be closer to God (42%) or for comfort in their life
(38%). Three-in-five Muslims say the same of the Qu’ran (63% “to be closer to
God”; 61% “for comfort in my life”). (Angus Reid Institute) December 21, 2022 Three-In-Ten Canadians (31%) Say They’re Wearing
A Mask Most Of The Time When In Public Spaces A new study from the
non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds more than half of Canadians supportive
of re-implementing mask mandates if cases of COVID-19 rise this winter. This,
while just three-in-ten (31%) say they are wearing a mask more than half of
the time in public spaces currently on their own volition. One-quarter (23%)
of those who “never” wear a mask say they would support a mask mandate while
two-thirds (65%) of those who rarely but sometimes wear one also say they
would accommodate a return to mandatory masking. (Angus Reid Institute) December 22, 2022 AUSTRALIA 53% Of Australians Would Vote Yes To Establish
An Aboriginal And Torres Strait Islander Voice To Parliament A slim majority of 53% of
Australians would vote ‘Yes’ to establish an ‘Aboriginal and Torres Strait
Islander Voice to Parliament’, compared to 30% who would vote ‘No’ and a
further 17% are undecided. There are large differences based on voting
intention in regards to ‘The Voice’ with 76% of ALP supporters and 89% of
Greens supporters indicating they would vote ‘Yes’ to establish the ‘Voice to
Parliament’. Only 9% of ALP supporters and just 2% of Greens supporters would
vote ‘No’. (Roy Morgan) December 20, 2022 MULTICOUNTRY STUDIES Global Predictions For 2023; A Study Across 36
Countries As 2022 has been marked by
COVID-19, international conflict, economic problems and an increasingly
urgent climate crisis, many agree that it has been a challenging year. As
usual, there is a marked difference between how people feel the year has been
for themselves and their families and how it has affected their country as a
whole. On average, in all 36 countries, over half (56%) describe 2022 as a
bad year for themselves and their families. Even more (73%) say it has been a
bad year for their country. And yet these figures suggest some improvement. (Ipsos Denmark) 19 December 2022 Source:
https://www.ipsos.com/da-dk/globale-forudsigelser-2023 How Can Brands Adapt For A Sustainable Festive
Season; Survey Across 12 Countries With increased concerns
about sustainability, many are starting to feel some discomfort in navigating
the festive season as they think about how to have an eco-friendly
end-of-year holiday without skimping on the festive magic. Across Europe,
people are being particularly mindful of their energy usage this winter,
including their use of decorative lights. In India, Columbia, Italy, France
and Australia, people are also making an effort to eat what is in
season. Exchanging gifts with friends and family is one of the top 3
most important aspects of end-of-year festivities, yet for 25% of people the
exchange of presents can sometimes feel excessive. (Kantar) 21 December 2022 Among 19 Surveyed Countries Americans See Their
Country’s Global Influence Weakening Than Getting Stronger By more than a two-to-one
margin, Americans say their country’s influence in the world has been getting
weaker rather than stronger in recent years (47% vs. 19%), according to a Pew
Research Center survey conducted this past spring. Roughly a third of U.S.
adults (32%) say their nation’s influence on the global stage has stayed
about the same. The United States is the lone country out of 19 surveyed
where a plurality of adults say their country’s influence has been getting
weaker recently. In Sweden, the Netherlands and Australia, majorities say
that their country’s global influence has stayed about the same. In one
country, Israel, a majority of adults say their country’s influence has
gotten stronger in
recent years. (PEW) DECEMBER 22, 2022 Fortunately, Hope Continues To Be Stronger Than
Despair; Survey Across 36 Countries Although 2022 is evaluated
4 points better than the previous year for the world, 3 out of every 4 people
think that 2022 is a bad year. While 77% of societies think that 2022 will be
a better year, this rate has decreased to 65% for 2023. Individuals in Turkey
are among the 10 countries that express the most desperate views for 2023.
While 65% of individuals in the average of countries are more optimistic for
2023, this rate is 54% in Turkey. (Ipsos Turkey) December 22, 2022 Source:
https://www.ipsos.com/tr-tr/neyseki-umut-umutsuzluktan-daha-guclu-olmaya-devam-ediyor Among 23 Countries; Global Consumer Confidence
Is Holding Up Ipsos’ Global Consumer
Confidence Index this month reads at 45.9, up 0.4 points vs. last month. The
Expectations sub-index shows its first significant increase this year (+0.5
points), while the Investment and Jobs’ sub-indices barely show any change.
As 2022 comes to a close, downward trends in overall sentiment
continue to be starkest in European countries, the United States, Canada,
Japan and South Korea. In six of the G7 countries—the U.S., Canada, France,
Germany, Great Britain, and Japan—consumer confidence continues to sit near
its lowest levels in more than a year. (Ipsos Global) 22 December 2022 Source:
https://www.ipsos.com/en/global-consumer-confidence-index-december-2022 ASIA
774-43-01/Polls BOJ Jolts
Markets In Surprise Change To Yield Curve Policy
The Bank of Japan shocked
markets on Tuesday with a surprise tweak to its bond yield control that
allows long-term interest rates to rise more, a move aimed at easing some of
the costs of prolonged monetary stimulus. Shares tanked, while the
yen and bond yields spiked following the decision, which caught off-guard
investors who had expected the BOJ to make no changes to its yield curve
control (YCC) until Governor Haruhiko Kuroda steps down in April. In a move explained as
seeking to breathe life back into a dormant bond market, the BOJ decided to
allow the 10-year bond yield to move 50 basis points either side of its 0%
target, wider than the previous 25 basis point band. But the central bank kept
its yield target unchanged and said it will sharply increase bond buying, a
sign the move was a fine-tuning of existing ultra-loose monetary policy
rather than a withdrawal of stimulus. Kuroda said the move was
aimed at ironing out distortions in the shape of the yield curve and ensuring
the benefits of the bank's stimulus program are directed to markets and
companies. "Today's step is
aimed at improving market functions, thereby helping enhance the effect of
our monetary easing. It's therefore not an interest rate hike," Kuroda
told a news conference. "This change will
enhance the sustainability of our monetary policy framework. It's absolutely
not a review that will lead to an abandonment of YCC or an exit from easy
policy." As widely expected, the
BOJ kept unchanged its YCC targets, set at -0.1% for short-term interest
rates and around zero for the 10-year bond yield, at a two-day policy meeting
that ended on Tuesday. The BOJ also said it would
increase monthly purchases of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) to 9 trillion
yen ($67.5 billion) per month from the previous 7.3 trillion yen. The benchmark Nikkei share
average slumped 2.5% after the decision, while the dollar fell as much as
3.1% to a four-month low of 132.68 yen. The 10-year JGB yield briefly spiked
to 0.460%, close to the BOJ's newly set implicit cap and the highest level
since 2015. NOT
CONVINCED Kuroda stressed the move
was not a prelude to a bigger tweak to YCC and an eventual exit from
ultra-easy policy, sticking to his view that Japan's fragile economy still
needed support. But some market players
were unconvinced. "Maybe this is a baby
step to test out the strategy and see what the market reaction is, and how
much it's reacting," said Bart Wakabayashi, branch manager at State
Street in Tokyo. "I think we're seeing the first toe in the water." Already, markets are
guessing what the BOJ's next move could be as Kuroda's term draws to an end
and with inflation expected to remain above its 2% target well into next
year. "They've widened the
band, and I guess that came earlier than expected. It raises questions as to
whether this is a precursor of more to come, in terms of policy
normalisation," said Moh Siong Sim, currency strategist at Bank of
Singapore. Shares of Japan's banking
sector bucked the broader market downtrend to rise 5.12%, highlighting
investors' expectations that years of ultra-low rates that squeezed earnings
from loans and deposits could be ending. The abrupt decision to
widen the yield band, rather than wait for the right timing to undertake
bolder tweaks to YCC, underscores the challenges the BOJ faces in addressing
the rising cost of prolonged easing. It also reflects the
broader challenge central banks have faced globally in trying to effectively
communicate a shift to less accommodative policy after an extended period of
unorthodox monetary settings. "The way the BOJ
moved abruptly without communication with markets makes the BOJ's course of
action unpredictable, making it almost impossible to read its mind,"
said Atushi Takeda, chief economist at Itochu Economic Research.
"Whoever becomes next BOJ governor must strive to make monetary policy
more transparent and predictable." The BOJ's ultra-low rate
policy and its relentless bond buying to defend its yield cap have drawn
increasing public criticism for distorting the yield curve, draining market
liquidity and fuelling an unwelcome yen plunge that inflated the cost of raw
material imports. Much of that public anger
has centred on Kuroda, who was handpicked by former prime minister Shinzo Abe
as BOJ governor a decade ago to rev up sluggish consumer demand with massive
monetary stimulus. In a rare acknowledgement
of the drawbacks of his policy, Kuroda said the decision to widen the yield
band now came from surveys showing a sharp deterioration in bond market
functions. He also said the BOJ must
look not just at downside but upside risks to growth and inflation,
signalling that there was scope for a withdrawal of stimulus next year if
economic conditions allow. "It's premature to
debate specifics on changing the monetary policy framework or an exit from
easy policy," Kuroda said. "When achievement of
our target comes into sight, the BOJ's policy board will hold discussions on
an exit strategy and offer communication to markets." * * * Here are some comments
from experts: TAKESHI MINAMI, CHIEF
ECONOMIST AT NORINCHUKIN RESEARCH INSTITUTE, TOKYO: "It came as a
surprise, but if the decision was delayed into next year, (the BOJ)
might not be able to make such a move as the economy is set to worsen. "The BOJ will
keep on monitoring markets when making further moves as needed. But it is
unlikely to shift policy automatically just because Governor Haruhiko Kuroda
is replaced with someone else in April." ATUSHI TAKEDA, CHIEF
ECONOMIST, ITOCHU ECONOMIC RESEARCH, TOKYO: "Today's move
reflects the BOJ's determination not to alter its yield curve control
policy. But the BOJ failed to communicate with markets, as it made
no efforts to lay the ground or allow markets to factor in such a move. It
came all of sudden so market players must be angry about the decision. "The BOJ must
have been forced into action because the bond market functionality is almost
dead. "The way
the BOJ moved abruptly without communication with markets
makes BOJ's course of action unpredictable, making it almost impossible
to read its mind. Whoever becomes next BOJ Governor must strive to
make monetary policy more transparent and predictable." KHENG SIANG NG, ASIA
PACIFIC HEAD OF FIXED INCOME AT STATE STREET GLOBAL ADVISORS, SINGAPORE: "This signals the
beginning of the slow unwind of ultra-low interest rates in Japan. "The change in YCC
range will help reduce the bond market from being artificially held up by central
bank bond purchases, and improve secondary trading liquidity." "As investors further
assess the implications...the market may stay volatile for the coming
weeks." NAOMI MUGURUMA, CHIEF
FIXED INCOME STRATEGIST, MUFG, TOKYO: "It was a surprise to
most market participants including ourselves. There is a risk that yen might
appreciate further because (it is) just before holidays in overseas markets,
so there could be further unwinding in yen short position." "This is one of the
earliest steps that the BOJ has decided to take, but I don't think
(it) will declare the end of YCC or negative interest rate policy anytime
soon." TAKUMI TSUNODA, SENIOR
ECONOMIST, SHINKIN CENTRAL BANK RESEARCH INSTITUTE, TOKYO: "Since
the BOJ is unlikely to be able to continue with its existing
policy...it'll be expected there will be another policy change. "But rather than
suddenly abandoning negative interest rates or yield-curve control, it's more
likely that the target maturity under the yield-curve control policy will be
shortened, for example to seven years from 10 years currently. "Once there's a new
governor, there'll be considerations again. Timing-wise it's likely they'll
first be looking to see how sustainable the current economic recovery
is." NOBUYASU ATAGO, CHIEF ECONOMIST,
ICHIYOSHI SECURITIES, TOKYO "Once we go into next
year, the United States and Europe will be entering a recession. There's a
really high probability of that. So there'll definitely be talk ahead about
what to do regarding additional monetary easing. "So long-term rates
can be lowered if they are kept as high as possible...if anything, (the risk)
is growing that there will be an economic downturn next year, so I think
it'll be significant in terms if preparation for when additional easing is
requested." HIROSHI NAMIOKA, CHIEF
STRATEGIST AND FUND MANAGER, T&D ASSET MANAGEMENT, TOKYO: "It was a surprise
decision at a time when the market had expected a lame-duck situation near
the end of Governor Kuroda's term...it was a nice move, including the fact that
it came against the economists' expectations. The current policy framework
would have mandated an endless bond-buying if everyone expects (a shift).
Kudos to the BOJ for the surprise. "It could have been
the last chance for the BOJ to move, amid incoming U.S. recession
and the end of the Fed's rate hikes. If later, it would have caused a much
bigger risk of sharp yen strengthening and other market fluctuations." BART WAKABAYASHI, BRANCH
MANAGER, STATE STREET, TOKYO: "They have these two
bazookas left - removing the YCC and bringing interest rates up, even
possibly to positive territory. There are huge bazookas that would move the
yen strongly. "Maybe this is a baby
step to test out the strategy and see what the market reaction is, and how
much it's reacting. "I think we're seeing
the first toe in the water." KERRY CRAIG, GLOBAL
STRATEGIST, JP MORGAN ASSET MANAGEMENT, MELBOURNE: "The move came
earlier than I had expected, but is a step towards the normalisation process
of policy in Japan. However, it is only a first step and yield-curve control
(YCC) remains in place, as does negative rate strategy. "Further adjustments
would require the view that inflation has become persistent and that YCC was
perhaps no longer necessary, or that the negative impacts of YCC are
outweighing the supportive ones as inflation rises. The market implications
are most prevalent in the forex markets ... the hint that
the BOJ is moving incrementally away from ultra-loose policy should
be yen positive in the near term." CAROL KONG, CURRENCY
STRATEGIST, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA, SYDNEY: "I think the move was
certainly unexpected, to say the least. And dollar/yen just sold off sharply
on the back of the YCC revision, and I think that does pave the way for a
full abandonment of the YCC programme, and probably a pivot from the
ultra-dovish monetary policy stance in the future." AYAKO FUJITA, CHIEF
ECONOMIST, JP MORGAN SECURITIES, TOKYO: "Because it would
have been hard to tweak the scheme after the market completely prices it in,
the decision was a reasonable one – the BOJ could not keep letting
the market expect (the change). "Regardless of the
leadership, whether Kuroda or a new governor, the tweak was expected to some
extent given the changing fundamentals, where the price inflation and yield
expectations were actually rising. "We do not expect
further tweaks to the YCC (in January and March meetings) because that would
harm the market functions." MOH SIONG SIM, CURRENCY
STRATEGIST, BANK OF SINGAPORE: "They've widened the
band, and I guess that came earlier than expected. It raises questions as to
whether this is a precursor of more to come, in terms of policy
normalisation. "The writing's on the
wall that perhaps the sharp yen weakness that we've seen previously was
uncomfortable for policymakers ... it's clear that it adds to the yen
strength story next year." CHRISTOPHER WONG, CURRENCY
STRATEGIST, OCBC, SINGAPORE: "The timing of the
policy tweak is a surprise, though we have been expecting the move to come in
2Q 2023. "The tweak may seem
modest but is significant for a central bank that has held dovish for a long
time. The implication is modest improvement from wide UST-JGB yield
differentials ... and a moderate-to-softer USD profile can lead to further
downside in USDJPY." (Asahi Shimbun) December 20, 2022 Source:
https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/14797367 774-43-02/Polls A Third Of
S’pore Adults Expect To Spend Less On Christmas Because Of The Rising Cost Of
Living
While this year was set to
be the first fully post-pandemic Christmas, latest YouGov data suggests that
some could be making plans for a scaled-back celebration as the rising cost
of living impacts their wallets. A third (35%) say they
will spend less on Christmas this year than they usually would, compared to
one in ten (12%) who say they will spend more than usual. One in five (20%)
expect to have a ‘normal’ Christmas, although this rises to more than a
quarter (27%) among Gen Zs.
The largest proportion of
residents expect to spend between $101 and $500 over Christmas, with more
than a third saying they will spend that amount (36%). A quarter each said
they would spend below $50 (26%) or between $51 and $100 (24%). Just one in ten would
spend in the range of $501 to $1,000 (9%), while a fewer one in twenty expect
to spend even more than that (5%).
The data also suggests
that Christmas this year could be less socially driven than it has been
previously. Apart from reducing spending on presents – which two in five of
all adults say they will do (42%) – gatherings with family, friends, and colleagues
(34%) as well as outings to attractions or Christmas markets (32%) are set to
see the next biggest cutbacks. A further three in ten say
they will reduce the amount they spend on staycations (30%) and travelling
they do to visit family and friends (29%) over the festive period. These trends on cutbacks
were largely consistent when analysed instead by demographic breaks, with
people across all ages still looking to reduce spending on presents,
gatherings and outings the most. Notably, older residents
were most likely to say they would reduce spending across most categories,
particularly for presents (44% for 35 – 44; 45% for 45 – 54) and gatherings
(39% for 45 – 54).
(YouGov Singapore) Source:
https://sg.yougov.com/en-sg/news/2022/12/20/third-spore-adults-expect-spend-less-christmas-bec/ 774-43-03/Polls More Than Half
(57%) Indonesians Still Don’t Have Any Plans For Spending Their Free Times
During This Year-End Holiday
Holiday is finally here.
After being “forced” to stay at home during pandemic for about two years, the
hype to welcome this year-end holiday is rising. Thus, in order to know
further about Indonesian customers’ behavior after the decreasing cases of
Covid-19 [1], Snapcart conducted
a study about their plans for this end of year long holiday. And with 2.473
samples, we found out that indeed, Covid-19 pandemic has changed some of
their interests and habits during holiday, compared to the past few years.
According to the data
above, our study figured out that more than half population (57%) still don’t
have any plans for spending their free times during this year-end holiday. On the other side, we also
found out some interesting facts such as even though attractive
promos/discounts often attract most people in Indonesia [2] [3] [4], but at the end of this year, most
Indonesians (25%) choose to visit interesting places rather than taking
benefits of many year-end sale to shop (20%). Furthermore, despite the
fact that majority of Indonesian people are planning to go outside at the end
of this year, but 62% of those who want to spend their holiday times to shop
are choosing to shop online. This percentage is increasing, compared to the
end of 2020 & 2021 when only 27% Indonesians who chose to shop online. Meanwhile during the end
of 2022, the percentage of Indonesians who want to shop at malls are only
27%, and the rest of them (11%) will shop at traditional market/small shops.
You can see the detailed comparison of Indonesian customer’s year-end holiday
spending on shopping during pandemic (2020-2021) & 2022 trends on the
infographic above and graphic below.
Additionally, we also
figured out that Indonesian customers’ interest in buying products has
changed. For the past few months
our previous studies often found out that food, household furniture, skincare
& other beauty products are often being the most sold items in Indonesia
[3] [4], but at the end of 2022, as you can see
on the infographic, Indonesian customers are more interested to buy
electronic items than those mentioned products. While on the other hand,
fashion & accessories products remain “primadonna” items for Indonesians. Other
pleasures As the most chosen option
in this survey, our data also shows that the popularity of tourism spots in
Indonesia is now dominated by water attraction places, as 50% of Indonesians
who want to refresh their mind outside their home are planning to visit
beaches, pools, water falls, and so on during this year-end holiday.
Meanwhile amusement and/or theme parks are only interesting for 10% of them
after several cities/town (19%) and mountainous or highland areas (11%) in
Indonesia. However, another
interesting fact is also found by our research. If we often see lots of people
in the previous years were still enjoying their holidays by watching TV or go
to cinemas, but during 2022 year-end holiday, Indonesians who want to spend
their holiday times by watching movies and/or series confessed that they now
prefer to watch movies/series on certain legal streaming platforms (52%)
rather than at cinemas (26%) and TV (18%), as you can see on the infographic
above. Payment
and financial planning Not only influencing
Indonesian customers’ taste and behavior during this long holiday, Covid-19
pandemic also affects Indonesians’ payment habits, where digital system has
become the most favorited way for them (40%) to pay items that they bought
during year-end shopping, while cash is the 2nd favorite
payment system (35%) that they use to shop. However, this phenomenon
doesn’t applied for Indonesians who choose to visit tourism attractions at
the end of this year holiday, because most of them still prefer to use cash
(49%) instead of other payment systems, and only 25% who want to use digital
payment during their trip and visit. Meanwhile on the other
side, majority of our respondents also confessed to us that Covid-19 pandemic
has made some of Indonesians create financial planning habits during this
year-end holiday like saving money for instance. You can see the detailed
data on the graphic below.
(Snapcart) Source:
https://snapcart.global/its-holiday-time/ AFRICA
774-43-04/Polls Climate Change
Making Life Worse In Mauritius; Citizens Want Collective Action To Combat It
Summary Located in the
Indian Ocean, with a tropical climate, Mauritius is considered particularly
vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, including rising temperatures
sea levels, coastal erosion, altered precipitation patterns, and an increase
in extreme weather events (World Health Organization, 2021). The past decade
has seen a drastic increase in the number of people affected by
climaterelated shocks, particularly this year’s tropical storms
(International Monetary Fund, 2022; Defimedia.info, 2022). The country is
also experiencing frequent and devastating flash floods that severely affect
the economy, the ecosystem, and livelihoods (Ministry of Foreign Affairs,
2021). According to the World Risk Report 2021, Mauritius ranks 51st out of
181 countries for risk of disaster from extreme natural events (Bündnis
Entwicklung Hilft, 2021; Government Information Services, 2021). The
government of Mauritius has developed strategies to combat climate change.
The Climate Change Act, enacted in 2020, will support the mainstreaming and
effective coordination of climate change issues at the highest level (Government
Gazette of Mauritius, 2020). In line with its goals for national development,
Mauritius has already implemented a number of policies and projects that
address both adaptation and mitigation, including a Road Map on Renewable
Energy, national tree-planting campaigns, coastal rehabilitation projects,
and rainwater harvesting systems (Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 2021). The
authorities have set ambitious objectives in the 2021 Nationally Determined
Contribution document under the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change. The key objectives to support climate change mitigation are
to reduce overall greenhouse gas emissions by 40% and to increase the share
of energy generation from green sources to 60% by 2030 (International
Monetary Fund, 2021). This dispatch reports on a special survey module
included in the Afrobarometer Round 9 questionnaire to explore Mauritians’
experiences and perceptions of climate change. Findings show that citizens
who are aware of climate change are solidly behind government action to
address the crisis, even if it comes at a significant economic cost.
Mauritians see addressing climate change as a collective responsibility, and
they want greater engagement on the issue by the government, business and
industry, developed nations, and ordinary citizens. Overwhelmingly,
Mauritians familiar with climate change say it is making life in their
country worse. But almost one-quarter of citizens have still not heard of
climate change. Key findings § More than
two-thirds (68%) of Mauritians say floods have become more severe over the
past 10 years; about half (48%) of citizens say the same about cyclones. § More than seven
in 10 citizens (73%) say they have heard of climate change. § Among those who
are aware of climate change: o Most (86%) say it is making life in Mauritius
worse. o About nine in 10 believe that ordinary citizens can help curb
climate change (88%), and nearly two-thirds (65%) want the government to take
immediate action to limit climate change, even if it is expensive, causes job
losses, or takes a toll on the economy. o Only small minorities are satisfied
with efforts by the government (3%), business and industry (7%), developed
countries (3%), and citizens (11%) to fight climate change. Severity of
extreme weather conditions Before asking about climate change, Afrobarometer
asked respondents about their experiences with extreme weather conditions.
More than two-thirds (68%) of Mauritians say floods have become “somewhat
more severe” or “much more severe” over the past 10 years. Almost half (48%)
say the same about cyclones, while 36% say they stayed the same over the past
decade (Figure 1).
More than one-third of
Mauritians (36%) say that the severity of droughts has increased, while the
same share of citizens (35%) say they stayed the same. Compared to 2017, the
proportion who say floods and cyclones have gotten more severe has increased
by 13 and 28 percentage points, respectively, while perceptions of worsening
droughts have decreased by 8 percentage points (Figure 2).
Rural residents are more
likely than urbanites to report increasingly severe cyclones (54% vs. 38%),
droughts (47% vs. 21%), and floods (72% vs. 62%). Economically well-off
respondents (those experiencing “no lived poverty”1) are less likely to see increasingly
severe cyclones, droughts, or floods, conceivably because they are more
sheltered than their less-well-off counterparts (Figure 3).
Climate change Awareness
of climate change A large majority (73%) of Mauritians say they have heard of
climate change; however, this is a 20-percentage-point decline from 2020
(93%), perhaps reflecting high public awareness of natural disasters – though
not necessarily of “climate change” – in 2020 (Figure 4).
While experience of severe
cyclones, droughts, and floods is more common in rural areas, levels of
awareness of climate change are about the same among rural and urban
residents (74% vs. 72%) (Figure 5). Poorer citizens are less familiar with
the term “climate change” (45% of those experiencing moderate or high lived
poverty vs. 77% of those experiencing no lived poverty), and citizens with a
secondary (71%) or post-secondary (91%) education are more likely than the
less educated (56%) to have heard of climate change. The level of awareness of
climate change also decreases with respondents’ age, ranging from 86% of 18-
to 24-yearolds to 52% of citizens aged 65 and above.
Effects of climate change
Almost nine out of 10 citizens (86%) who are aware of climate change say it
is making life in Mauritius “somewhat worse” or “much worse” (Figure 6).
Perceptions of the adverse effects of climate change have increased by 25
percentage points since 2017.
Men (88%), rural residents
(88%), the economically well-off (87%), and the highly educated (87%-89%) are
more likely to see climate change as making life worse (Figure 7).
Fighting climate change
Large majorities of Mauritians believe that both ordinary citizens and the
government have a role to play in limiting climate change. About nine in 10
respondents who are aware of climate change (88%) “agree” or “strongly agree”
that citizens can help curb climate change, and nearly two-thirds (65%) of
citizens want their government to take steps now to limit climate change,
even if it is expensive, causes job losses, or takes a toll on the economy
(Figure 8). In fact, in Mauritians’ eyes, the government (36%) and ordinary
people (30%) share primary responsibility for fighting climate change and
reducing its impact. Fewer respondents assign this responsibility to
developed countries (22%) and to business and industry (9%) (Figure 9).
Are stakeholders doing
enough to limit climate change? Respondents answer with a resounding “No.”
Only small minorities say the government (3%), business and industry (3%),
developed countries (3%), and citizens (11%) are making enough of an effort
to fight climate change (Figure 10). Large majorities believe more needs to
be done, including almost eight in 10 (79%) who say the government and
developed countries need to do “a lot more.”
When asked to assess how
well the government is addressing the problem of climate change, about four
in 10 (38%) of all survey respondents describe the government’s performance
as “fairly” or “very” good, while 44% give the government a failing grade on
this issue (Figure 11). Men (47%), urbanites (47%), and citizens with higher
education (49%) are particularly critical of the government’s efforts.
Conclusion As climate
change continues to negatively impact the lives of Mauritians, these survey
results suggest that broad support for the mitigation of climate change is
building – at least among those citizens who have heard of climate change.
Majorities among those who are familiar with climate change say it is making
life in the country worse, and citizens call for immediate government action,
even if policies and programmes are expensive, cause job losses, or take a
toll on the economy. In addition, a majority of Mauritians expect other
stakeholders – including business and industry, developed countries, and
ordinary citizens – to make greater efforts to limit climate change. Since
more than one in four Mauritians still have not heard of climate change,
awareness raising may be one important step toward an all-hands-on-deck fight
against climate change. (Afrobarometer) 22 December 2022 WEST
EUROPE
774-43-05/Polls Conservatives No Longer
Most Trusted To Grow Britain’s Economy
Trust on the economy and
other issues
Meanwhile, on other issues:
Voting intention Labour leads the Conservatives by 26 points:
Do the Conservatives
deserve to be re-elected / Are Labour ready for government?
Leader / government
satisfaction ratings 28% are satisfied with the job Rishi Sunak is doing
as Prime Minister (-1 from November) and 49% are dissatisfied (+12).
36% are satisfied with the job Keir Starmer is doing
as Labour leader and 42% are dissatisfied (no change on either measure).
Just 14% are satisfied with how the government is
running the country (-2 points from November) and 79% are dissatisfied (+3). Leader attributes When asked whether a series of 11 personality traits
applied to Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer, our data shows: Keir Starmer leads Sunak by 5 points or more on:
Rishi Sunak leads Keir Starmer by 5 points or more
on:
This means Sunak and Starmer are virtually tied on:
Gideon Skinner, Head of Political
Research at Ipsos UK, says of the findings: “As we go into Christmas
there’s little sign of any significant honeymoon for Rishi Sunak in these
figures. His personal ratings are down – before recent occupants of No10 it
was rare for Prime Ministers to be in negative territory so early on in their
tenure – while Labour continue to hold a substantial lead in voting
intentions. Keir Starmer’s personal scores are mixed and there is not much to
choose between him and the Conservative leader on many leader attributes, but
despite this Britons are more inclined to see Labour as ready for government
than during most of the last 10 years. Underpinning much of this are voters’
views on the economy and cost of living, which have been top of their agenda
for most of 2022. The challenge for the Conservatives going into 2023 is that
they still haven’t regained public confidence on these key issues, nor in
other important areas like public services and immigration – and looking
ahead few think the party deserves to be re-elected.” 19 December 2022 Source: https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/conservatives-no-longer-most-trusted-grow-britains-economy 774-43-06/Polls A Large Majority Of
Britons Disapprove Of The Government’s Handling Of Immigration
It was recently reported that
more than 40,000 people have crossed the English Channel this year to claim
asylum in Britain. New YouGov data sheds light on Britons’ views on
immigration in general and the government’s handling of it.
In the same vein, only 12% of Britons think the
immigration system has clear rules about who can live in Britain, and only 4%
think the rules are applied in an effective way. The general level of hostility
towards immigration has softened since 2016 Overall public opinion towards immigration remains
negative: 57% of people think that immigration into Britain in the last ten
years has been too high and by 30% to 24% they think it has been mostly bad
for the country. However, the general level of hostility towards
immigration has softened since August 2016 – the proportion thinking the
number of people coming to the UK is too high is down thirteen points from
70% to 57%. Yet the proportion thinking immigration is bad for Britain
has only fallen by three points (30%) since 2016 (33%).
When asked about different types of immigration, or
immigration from different parts of the world, Britons say there are
many sorts of immigration they are more relaxed about. Three quarters of Britons (76%) are happy with
either the same or increased levels of skilled immigration, 69% are
happy with existing or increased numbers of foreign students paying to study
at British universities, and 72% are happy with the same number or more
people fleeing persecution or war coming here. Britons are also becoming more relaxed when it comes
to familial immigration (people coming to join family members already in the
UK) – half (50%) are happy with more or the current numbers of this group, up
six points (44%) since 2017. Public opposition to immigration now is higher than
in 2016 only in one circumstance, in low skilled immigration – 43% think we
should allow less (27%) or none of this group (16%) into the UK, compared to
41% who say they are happy with the present numbers (25%) or more (16%). Britons are also sceptical
about the legitimacy of migrants crossing the Channel Although Britons are softening on different types of
immigration, they remain sceptical about the legitimacy of migrants crossing
the Channel. Three in ten (30%) think that most or nearly all people crossing
the Channel are making false claims and nearly a quarter (24%) say a minority
of those crossing are genuinely fleeing persecution. This may be one reason
why 42% of Brits think the government are letting too many people in —
because the legitimacy of asylum seekers is in question.
Britons are also split across party lines when it
comes to tackling the issue of migrants crossing the Channel. A majority of Labour voters (62%) think it should be
made easier for people to apply for asylum in Britain from overseas, so they
don’t need to try and cross the Channel in boats. In contrast, the most
popular option for Conservative voters (36%) was to deploy the Royal navy to
patrol the Channel and turnaround boats trying to reach the UK.
December 19, 2022 774-43-07/Polls 54% Lack Confidence In
Quality Of Local NHS Services For This Winter As Concerns Over Waiting Lists
Intensify
Confidence in local NHS
services Only 44% are confident
local NHS services will provide high quality care to patients during this
current winter, but 54% do not have much confidence. In January 2015, 72%
were confident, while 16% were not.
Waiting times Concerns over waiting times are widespread and
strengthening. 84% agree that waiting times are too long for emergency care
(up 6 points since December 2021), including 64% who strongly agree (up 19
points). Even more, 89%, agree that waiting times are too
long for non-emergency care (up 2 pts since his time last year, although
those who strongly agree has risen 10 pts to 67%).
When asked who is most to blame for long waiting
lists, the top answers from the public are not enough doctors and
nurses/overworked/undertrained/underpaid staff (39%), underfunding/cuts
generally (34%) and Conservative government/party policies (26%).
Most trusted party on the
NHS Labour has extended its lead as the party most
trusted to improve the NHS. Nearly half, 47%, trust Labour most, up 5 points
since September, while only 11% trust the Conservatives most, down 9 points.
Even among the Conservatives’ 2019 voters, views are split: 29% trust the
Conservatives most to improve the NHS, 32% Labour (although the Conservatives
are most trusted among their current supporters, at 41%).
Gideon Skinner, Head of
Political Research at Ipsos UK, says of the findings: “The severity of public
anxiety for the NHS this winter is plain to see, with worries over waiting
lists intensifying and just over half lacking confidence that local health
services can provide a high quality of care for patients over the season.
Some of this is partly down to long-running concerns over staffing issues and
funding, not to mention the effects of the pandemic, but the Conservatives do
not escape blame, with Labour extending its lead as most trusted on the NHS.
And with the focus on the challenges facing the health service only likely to
continue over the cold months, this could be a crucial political
battleground.” 20 December 2022 774-43-08/Polls With Just A Few Sleeps
Until Christmas, Some Britons Hadn’t Even Started Buying Presents
Christmas shopping tracker
shows 44% of Britons had bought all of their festive presents by 19 December And according to YouGov’s Christmas shopping
tracker, that includes 4% of Britons who admitted they had not yet bought any
of the presents they needed to.
YouGov’s tracking of the gift-gathering process
began on 5 December, when 17% of people said they’d already bought all of
their presents. A week later, 28% had, with progress continuing at a
similar pace throughout the month. Perhaps unsurprisingly, there has been a leap in
progress over the past few days, with many people seemingly using the last
weekend before Christmas to make a dent in their list – 9 percentage points
more of the public said they’d finished their shopping on Monday, December 19
(44%) compared to the Friday before, December 16 (35%). And the bulk of those who hadn’t yet bought all of
their gifts had at least bought “most of them” (29% of all Britons, compared
to 14% who had bought fewer). Men more likely to leave
it until last minute As was the case earlier in
the month, men were still considerably less likely
than women to have bought everything even at such a late stage (39% to 48%)
and also more likely to be last minute shoppers – as of December 19, 6% of
men had still not started shopping compared to 2% of women.
And generally, young people were as likely as men to
have finished shopping, with 30% of 18 to 24-year-olds having finished their
gift buying. Those aged 65 and over were nearly twice as likely
to have done so, with 54% of that age group saying they’d bought all of the
gifts they needed by December 19, making them the most prepared generation. Britons aged between 18 and 24 were the most likely
to not bother buying gifts at all, with 17% saying they don’t intend to buy
any Christmas presents this year, compared to between 10% and 11% for all
other major age groups.
December 23, 2022 774-43-09/Polls Four In Ten Britons Would
Support Musk Stepping Down As Twitter CEO
And that’s even higher for Britons who say they use
Twitter daily – 60% of them would support Musk stepping down as CEO while
just 14% would oppose it. A majority of those daily Twitter users (56%) also
say that Musk has been bad for the platform, compared to just 16% who say
he’s been good for it.
Fewer than one in five
Britons have a favourable opinion of Elon Musk Since Musk began his acquisition of Twitter in
April, his popularity has tumbled among the British public. Just 18% of Britons now have a favourable opinion of
Musk compared to more than half (54%) who say they think unfavourably of
him. That gives him a net favourability rating (the
result of subtracting the percentage of people with an unfavourable view from
the percentage with a favourable view) of -36, down from -17 in April, when
23% of Britons held a favourable view of him and 40% an unfavourable
one.
Musk’s favourability rating is lower still among
Britons who use Twitter (-44), 64% of whom think of him unfavourably,
compared to 20% who have a favourable opinion.
Does Twitter give users
enough freedom to post? Upon acquiring the social media giant, Elon Musk made
clear his desire to promote more freedom of speech among users. However, a third (34%) of Britons now think that
Twitter gives people too much freedom to post what they want and allows too
much offensive or harmful content that should be removed – that's up slightly
from 32% in April. A far smaller proportion of Britons (11%) think
Twitter does not give people enough freedom to post, and often moderates or
removes content that should be allowed, while a similar number (12%) believe
Twitter gets the balance about right. Among Twitter users, 14% think Twitter does not give
people enough freedom to post, while 39% say it gives people too much freedom
and allows too much offensive or harmful content that should be removed.
December 23, 2022 774-43-10/Polls 62% Of Russians Plan To
Spend Up To 5 Thousand Rubles On New Year's Gifts; Romir Study And Fix Price
The majority of respondents (57%) prepare gifts only
for family members and relatives. 6 out of 10 respondents said they want to
reduce the cost of gifts this year December 19, 2022 –
Fix Price and Romir conducted a joint study among
Russians in various cities on the topic of preparing for the celebration of
the New Year. The survey showed that 62% of Russians are ready to allocate up
to 5 thousand rubles for New Year's gifts to loved ones, 30% plan to keep
within the amount of 5 to 10 thousand rubles, and 8% do not mind spending
more than 10 thousand rubles. 57% of respondents intend to reduce costs this
year compared to last year, the main reason for this decision is the decline
in revenues this year (42%) and the increase in prices for goods (44%). Only
4% of Russians plan to increase spending on gifts, mainly due to rising
prices. More than half of the respondents (57%) make gifts on the occasion of
the New Year holidays only to family members and relatives, and 18% - to
relatives and friends. What Russians give "Meeting the New Year
and Christmas is a magical time that you want to celebrate with loved ones, and
jewelry and souvenirs are one of the ways to create the right mood. Products
from the New Year's collection began to appear in Fix Price stores in mid-October, and currently the assortment includes more
than 200 commodity items for creating a festive mood. These are Christmas
decorations, and we have toys on sale even in retro style, and chocolate
sets, envelopes for letters to Santa Claus and decor items. " Inna Kondratyeva, Director
of Category Management Department, Fix Price As for gifts for children, the majority of
Russians try to give useful and educational toys (construction sets, board
games, etc.) - 47% answered so, sweets turned out to be the second most
popular gift - 35%, in third place dolls, cars and soft toys (23%). Russians
try to give colleagues useful things in everyday life (48%) or gifts taking
into account the individual preferences of a person (39%), close the top
three - budget and funny souvenirs (35%). As for the place of choice of
stores for shopping, the fans of offline and online stores turned out to be
equally - 42% each. At the same time, 3% of Russians answered that they would
not buy gifts, but would give something unnecessary. New Year is a home holiday Almost none of the Russians plans
to leave for the celebration of the New Year from their city, only 3% will celebrate in
another region of Russia, and 1% - abroad. 62% of respondents this year will
celebrate the New Year as before, and 28% reported that they would do it more
quietly and modestly compared to 2021. 12% said that this year they are not
in the mood to decorate their homes for the holidays, and 64% will decorate
everything around and prepare for the 2023 meeting, as always. The most
popular accessories for creating a festive atmosphere in Russia, according to
respondents, are toys for the Christmas tree, New Year's souvenirs, as well
as lamps and garlands. «In an unstable economic
situation, the buyer tries to please himself with pleasant trifles, and the
New Year is an excellent reason for this. At the same time, the buyer remains
rational in his spending and optimizes costs. One of the ways to optimize is
to choose a network with the optimal ratio of price, range and quality of
goods. In this situation, the buyer actively diversifies sales channels, alternating
online and offline formats in search of a player, which will cover his needs
as much as possible, offering a wide range at a bargain price." December 19, 2022 774-43-11/Polls 32% Of French People Have
Already Given Up Applying For A Job Because Of Their Level Of English
The level of English and
its contribution to the professional career In addition, the survey highlights the impact of (non) English proficiency on
professional careers: a quarter of French people (26%) and
even a third of workers (32%) have already given up applying for a job
because of their level of English, considered too low. And more than one in
three French people (35%) has already been refused a job, mission or
professional opportunity for the same reason. French workers are aware of the challenge: a large majority of them consider the good command of
English as important or even essential to "find a job if
they happen to be unemployed" (72%), "progress in their
professional career plan" (67%) or "improve their income level in
the years to come" (65%). The French attached to the
personal nature of the Personal Training Account Almost all active French people (94%) now know the Personal Training Account (CPF); 7
out of 10 even know precisely what it is (+27 points in three years). Aware of its importance in today's professional
world, 49% of workers say they are interested
in following training in English via the CPF and more than
half (53%) would be willing to follow this type of training outside working
hours. More generally, the French
are massively opposed (85%) to the removal of English from the list of
courses that can be financed by the CPF. One in two (49%) is
even completely opposed. Employees are now very attached to the personal nature of the CPF, and
this attachment is expressed, among other things, in the fact that a very
large majority of them (92%) consider it a good thing to be able to use it without having the obligation to
inform their employer. And 45% (a particularly high
proportion) even believe that this is a very good thing. The French also reject the
introduction of a systematic out-of-pocket charge for vocational
training. This opposition is not only broad (it
is shared by about 7 French people out of 10), but also intense: no less than
a third of them (33%) say they are completely
opposed to such a measure. Finally, a clear majority of French
people are in favour of the rest of the burden only for employees who do not
complete their training (83%) as well as the exemption of the rest of the burden for the modest
categories (74%). December 20, 2022 774-43-12/Polls 30 Percent Of German
Citizens Entitled To Vote Say They Would Vote For The CDU/CSU If The
Bundestag Election Were Held Next Sunday
The voting intention of
Germans in December 2022
This is the result of the current YouGov Sunday
question, for which 1,608 people out of 2,075 eligible poll participants
submitted their voting intention between 16.12.2022 and 21.12.2022. December 22, 2022 774-43-13/Polls Italians, Between Savings
And Financial Choices
Families, businesses,
young people: focus on savings to return to growth
December 22, 2022 Source: https://www.bva-doxa.com/gli-italiani-tra-risparmio-e-scelte-finanziarie/ NORTH
AMERICA
774-43-14/Polls In Their Own Words: Asian
Immigrants’ Experiences Navigating Language Barriers In The United States
New immigrant arrivals to the United States face
many challenges and obstacles when navigating their daily lives. For Asian
immigrants, these include language and cultural obstacles that impact those
who arrive with little to no proficiency in English. But navigating life in
America also impacts English-speaking immigrants as they adjust to life in a
new country with its own unique linguistic and cultural quirks. In 2021, Pew Research Center conducted 49 focus
groups with Asian immigrants to understand the challenges they faced, if any,
after arriving in the country. The focus groups consisted of 18 distinct
Asian origins and were conducted in 17 Asian languages. (For more, see
the methodology.) Across the focus groups, daily challenges related to
speaking English emerged as a common theme. These include experiences getting
medical care, accessing government services, learning in school and finding
employment along with speaking English and understanding U.S. culture.
Participants also shared frustration, stress and at times sadness because of
the cultural and language barriers they encountered. Some participants also
told us about their challenges learning English, as well as the times they
received support from others to deal with or overcome these language
barriers. Among Asian immigrants,
recent arrivals report lower English proficiency levels than long-term
residents Focus group findings about learning English and
challenges navigating life in the U.S. are reflected in government data about
English proficiency among Asian immigrants. For example, about half (53%) of
Asian immigrants ages 5 and older who have been in the U.S. for five years or
less say they speak English proficiently, according to a Pew Research Center
analysis of Census Bureau data. By contrast, 60% of Asian immigrants who have
been in the U.S. for more than a decade say they speak English proficiently,
a higher share than recent arrivals.
Among Asian Americans ages 5 and older, 58% of
immigrants speak English proficiently, compared with nearly all of the U.S.
born who say the same (94%). There is language diversity among Asian immigrants
living in the U.S. The vast majority (86%) of Asian immigrants 5 and older
say they speak a language other than English at home, while 14% say they
speak only English in
their homes. The most spoken non-English language among Asian immigrants is
Chinese, including Mandarin and Cantonese (20%). Hindi (18%) is the second
most commonly spoken non-English language among Asian immigrants (this figure
includes Urdu, Bengali and other Indo-Iranian and Indo-European languages),
followed by Tagalog and other Filipino languages (13%) and Vietnamese (9%).
This reflects the languages of the four largest Asian
origin groups (Chinese, Indian, Filipino and Vietnamese) living in
the U.S. But overall, many other languages are spoken at home by Asian
immigrants. The following chapters explore three broad themes
from the focus group discussions: the challenges Asian immigrants have faced
in navigating daily life and communicating in English; tools and strategies
they used to learn the language; and types of help they received from others
in adapting to English-speaking settings. The experiences discussed may not
resonate with all Asian U.S. immigrants, but the study sought to capture a
wide range of views by including participants of different languages,
immigration or refugee experiences, educational backgrounds and income
levels. DECEMBER 19, 2022 774-43-15/Polls Two-In-Five Christians And
Three-In-Five Muslims Say They Read Bible And Qu’ran To Be Closer To God
The holiday season is often a time to reflect on the
positive aspects of one’s life. As the calendar closes on a challenging year
for many Canadians, there are many who say they are finding solace in
religious teachings. A new study by the non-profit Angus Reid Institute
in partnership with Cardus finds comfort and being close with
God as some of the top reasons regular readers of sacred texts such as the
Bible, Qu’ran or Torah return to those books. Meanwhile, those engaged with the Bible and Qu’ran
are most likely to say direction and advice is what they take away from
reading those sacred texts. Seven-in-ten Muslims and more than half (56%) of
Christians who have interacted with the Qu’ran or the Bible, respectively, in
recent years say “guidance for life” is what stays with them. This is the
case for fewer, but still two-in-five (39%), of Jews engaged with the Torah. In the broader population, there are many Canadians
– two-in-five – who believe sacred texts such as the Bible, Qu’ran and Torah
offer good suggestions on how to lead a happy life. One-in-five (21%) go
further and say the sacred texts are ageless in their truth. Two-in-five
Canadians disagree, including one-quarter (26%) who call those sacred texts
outdated and irrelevant and more than one-in-ten (13%) who believe they are
actively harmful to Canadian society. Those who have not recently engaged
with the sacred texts are much more likely to believe the latter (20%) than
those who have read them in recent years (4%). There is ongoing reflection on the content of the
Bible against the values of contemporary society. Among Canadians who
identify or grew up as Christian, there are few that deny the Bible is
showing its age when it comes to its views on gender, sexuality and race.
More than half of Christian-identifying or Christian-raised Canadians say the
Bible is dated when it comes to gender politics, with three-in-ten (29%) of
that group saying it is “quite a lot” or “very much” sexist. There are also
one-in-five (21%) former or current Christians who would call it homophobic
and one-in-six (16%) who would call it racist. Those who are currently
Christian are less likely to believe the Bible is discriminatory than those
who were raised in the tradition but have no current religious identity.
More Key Findings:
About ARI The Angus Reid Institute (ARI) was
founded in October 2014 by pollster and sociologist, Dr. Angus Reid. ARI is a
national, not-for-profit, non-partisan public opinion research foundation
established to advance education by commissioning, conducting and
disseminating to the public accessible and impartial statistical data,
research and policy analysis on economics, political science, philanthropy,
public administration, domestic and international affairs and other
socio-economic issues of importance to Canada and its world. About Cardus Cardus is a non-partisan think tank dedicated to
clarifying and strengthening, through research and dialogue, the ways in which
society’s institutions can work together for the common good. Note: Throughout this
report, sample sizes of religious groups are unweighted. For more
information, see methodology notes at the end of the report. INDEX Part One: Canadians and
the sacred texts
Part Two: The experience
of the ‘engaged’
Part Three: Sacred texts
and contemporary society
Notes on Methodology Part One: Canadians and
the sacred texts Prevalence of the Bible,
Torah, Qu’ran in Canadian homes Three-in-five (59%) of Canadians have a sacred text
in their home, whether that is the Bible, Torah, Qu’ran, Bhagavad Gita, Guru
Granth Sahib or something else. More than half of Canadians (54%) have a
Bible in the home. Other sacred texts are less prevalent. Older Canadians, and especially women over the age
of 54, are more likely to have a Bible in the home. The Qu’ran is a much more
likely to be on the bookshelf in the homes younger Canadians, including
visible minorities and immigrants (see
detailed tables).
Since 2017, the Angus Reid Institute and Cardus have
measured Canadians’ faith and spirituality using an index of questions
related to this topic and their attitudes, beliefs and activities. The result
is the Spectrum of Spirituality, which identifies four groups along a
continuum of faith and religiosity: Non-Believers, Spiritually Uncertain,
Privately Faithful and Religiously Committed. For an in-depth look at what
defines each group, visit our release here. Nearly all (95%) of those defined as Religiously
Committed by the spectrum have a sacred text in the home. Three-in-ten (29%)
of the non-religious say they have a Bible, Torah, Qu’ran or other sacred
text at home:
Having one at home is one matter, picking up and
engaging with it is another. Three-in-five (62%) Canadians say they have
read, heard or otherwise engaged with one of the sacred texts during their
adult lives. For three-in-ten (28%), they have not interacted with a sacred
text since their school days. One-in-ten (9%) have never engaged with a
Bible, Qu’ran or Torah at any point in their life. Those who identify as Christian, Jewish or Muslim
are more likely to have engaged with their respective sacred text recently.
However, those who identify as Christian are more likely than Jews or Muslims
to say they haven’t picked up a Bible since they were in school. While Jews and Muslims are minorities within the
broader Canadian population – around
one per cent and five per cent respectively – and are weighted as
such when it comes to the nationally representative sample, this survey used
a boosted sample of both populations in order to more accurately capture the
opinions and experiences of those groups. When referenced, note that these
sample sizes are unweighted to represent the number of interviews performed.
For more information, see notes on methodology at the end of the report.
For most Canadians, the sacred text they have read
is the Bible. Three-in-five (58%) Canadians say they have engaged with one at
some point as an adult. One-in-ten (12%) say the same of the Torah, while
one-in-six (16%) have read a Qu’ran during their adulthood:
Majority across religions
agree the scriptures of all religions teach the same things Three-in-five (63%) Canadians believe the scriptures
of all religions teach the same things. This belief is held at similar levels
among those who have engaged with at least one sacred text in recent years
(62%) and those who have not (65%). There is also a widespread belief in the similarity
of the message of the scriptures of major religions among those who identify
as belonging to those religions. Three-in-five Christians (61%) and Jews
(61%), and nine-in-ten Muslims (89%), agree that the writings of the major
world religions “teach essentially the same things”:
*Smaller sample size,
interpret with caution Part Two: The experience
of the ‘engaged’ Defining engagement with
sacred texts For this study, Cardus and ARI focused on the
experiences of Canadians who are “engaged” with the Bible, Qu’ran and Torah.
Researchers defined that as having read or interacted with that sacred text
either in the last 12 months or “past few years”, but not more than five
years ago. Two-in-five (39%) Canadians were defined as being
“engaged” with the Bible for the purposes of this study, while 10 per cent
and six per cent of Canadians were defined as “engaged” with the Qu’ran and
Torah respectively. This measure of engagement varied across religions.
Four-in-five (81%) Muslims are considered “engaged” with the Qu’ran.
Two-third (67%) of Jews are considered to be “engaged” with the Torah.
Evangelical Christians are much more likely to have engaged with the Bible
recently (90%) than those of other Christian sects:
Engagement increases significantly along the
Spectrum of Spirituality. Nearly all (97%) of the Religiously Committed have
engaged with a sacred text in recent years, including 86 per cent who have
with the Bible. One-in-ten (9%) of the Non-religious say the same:
‘To be closer to God’ top
reason for engaged Muslims, Christians to read sacred text The sacred texts mean many things to many people,
and for the engaged, there are myriad reasons they return to the Bible, Torah
or Qu’ran. For engaged Christians and Muslims, being closer with God is one
of the top reasons to study their respective sacred texts. Other widely cited
reasons include for comfort and for wisdom. Those are lesser reasons for engaged Jews to read
the Torah. Instead, approaching half (46%) of Torah-engaged Jews say they
return to the Torah because it’s part of their religious community’s life:
Those engaged with sacred
texts take away ‘guidance for life’ more than anything else More than half (56%) of engaged Christians and
seven-in-ten (70%) engaged Muslims say they find guidance for life when they
read their respective sacred texts. Fewer, but still two-in-five (39%)
engaged Jews say the same. Experiencing God’s presence is a significant
experience for engaged Christians (39%) and Muslims (52%), as is discovering
God’s will (35%, 47% respectively). Engaged Jews are less likely to take away
those feelings:
The ‘engaged’ more likely
to have donated, volunteered in recent months Three-in-five Canadians (59%) say they’ve donated
money to a charity in recent months, while two-in-five (40%) say they’ve
volunteered their time. Both of those figures are higher among those who
identify as Christian, Muslim or Jewish than those who have no religious
identity. As well, those considered engaged with a sacred text were more
likely to report donating money (68%) and volunteering (48%) than those who
had not read a sacred text in recent years (53%, 33% respectively):
*Smaller sample size,
interpret with caution Part Three: Sacred texts
and contemporary society The sacred texts have offered wisdom and guidance
for thousands of years, but how applicable are they to contemporary life?
Canadians offer a variety of perspectives, with the faithful and
non-practicing differing greatly on the value of sacred literature. Plurality of Canadians
feel sacred texts offer ‘good suggestions’ for happy lives Asked to describe the value or applicability of
sacred texts, Canadians offer a mixed review. For one-in-five (21%) including
nearly half of Muslims (47%) the stories and wisdom are “ageless in their
truth and relevance” even in this modern society. Two-in-five (39%) are less
vehement about the value they find in these words, but overall feel that the
lessons offer good suggestion that can help one throughout life:
*Smaller sample size,
interpret with caution **Those engaged with
sacred texts were shown the sacred text they were engaged with, others were
shown “these sacred texts” Is the Bible sexist,
racist or homophobic? Society has changed rapidly over the past decade,
century, and millennium. As such, the messages recorded in ancient texts are
often subject to criticism with a modern lens. Those who were raised
Christian or identify in this way currently were asked to appraise the Bible
with this critical view. Overall, one-quarter (26%) disagree that the Bible
contains sexist messages – a view more common among men (31%) than women
(20%). Others agree that it is to varying levels:
The same question was then asked about the Bible and
homophobia. This subject has been the matter of considerable debate and
criticism in recent decades as views of sexuality and gender have evolved.
The modern conversation is certainly far removed from the time of the
Apostles, and two-in-five Canadians (43%) feel that the messaging in the
Bible can be viewed as homophobic. Three-in-ten (29%) disagree, again with a
disparity among men and women, while many say they don’t know enough to say:
Christians are least likely among these three
different questions to feel that the Bible is racist. Here nearly two-in-five
(37%) say it is not, while three-in-ten (29%) are unsure.
Those who have left their Christian beliefs behind
are much more critical of the content of the Bible than those who continue to
practice:
Majority believe Bible,
Qu’ran should not be part of standard school curriculum Another contemporary debate about religion in modern
Canada is the role of religious education. Comparative religious studies are
not a significant portion of the public-school curriculum in the country
– if
it is taught at all. For most Canadians, including those who practice
their own faith, this is the ideal path. One-in-three (35%) would like
children in public schools to be exposed to the Bible in their curriculum,
while 44 per cent of Christians say this:
*Smaller sample size,
interpret with caution A similar datapoint is noted when
it comes to the Qur’an. One-in-five (21%) would work this into the curriculum for public
schools, with Muslims twice as supportive than then general population but
most disagreeing that this is necessary:
*Smaller sample size,
interpret with caution Half of Canadians say
sacred texts should not define laws, how we live together While faithful Canadians undoubtedly draw value from
sacred texts at a personal, family and community level, they are less
convinced that these texts should contribute to laws and societal principles.
That said, engagement with religious texts is a considerable factor in this
view. Those who engage with sacred texts largely feel that scripture should
act as a broad guide if not a definition for community organization.
Seven-in-ten who are not engaged feel the opposite (72%):
*Smaller sample size,
interpret with caution **Those engaged with
sacred texts were shown the sacred text they were engaged with, others were
shown “sacred texts such as the Bible and the Torah and the Qu’ran” December 21, 2022 Source: https://angusreid.org/canada-religion-sacred-texts-bible-quran-torah/ 774-43-16/Polls Three-In-Ten Canadians
(31%) Say They’re Wearing A Mask Most Of The Time When In Public Spaces
This year’s holiday season looks a lot different
than the previous two, with public health restrictions now largely left to
the Ghost of Christmas Past. However, a large group of unmasked Canadians
would evidently appreciate a push from government to force them to take a
more cautionary approach. As immune-evasive Omicron
variants spread, and influenza
and respiratory illnesses cause problems for health care providers
across the country, some
have speculated that mask mandates may be needed to curb infection. One-quarter (23%) of those who “never” wear a mask say
they would support a mask mandate while two-thirds (65%) of those who rarely
but sometimes wear one also say they would accommodate a return to mandatory
masking. As many look to their
government for action on masking, few have the same appetite for a
reintroduction of vaccine passports. One-in-five
(21%) would support this action, while two-in-five Canadians (42%) say
neither masking mandates nor vaccine passports should be in Canada’s future.
More Key Findings:
About ARI The Angus Reid Institute (ARI) was
founded in October 2014 by pollster and sociologist, Dr. Angus Reid. ARI is a
national, not-for-profit, non-partisan public opinion research foundation
established to advance education by commissioning, conducting and
disseminating to the public accessible and impartial statistical data,
research and policy analysis on economics, political science, philanthropy,
public administration, domestic and international affairs and other
socio-economic issues of importance to Canada and its world. INDEX Part One: A pandemic of
indifference?
Part Two: A return to
mandates?
Part One: A pandemic of
indifference? Half of Canadians say they
don’t think about COVID-19 much anymore This time last year, Canadians were warned of the
impending rise of the Omicron variant of COVID-19, elevating concern over
personal infection. The concern was justified – Omicron tripled
Canada’s COVID-19 infection count in the early months of 2022.
However, this wide level of exposure affected Canadians’ perception of COVID-19
– after the widespread of Omicron, many
believed a personal infection with that variant would be mild. With many provinces now ignoring
re-infection data or testing
less regularly, an accurate trend of COVID-19 cases may be more difficult
to track. This perhaps helps to partially explain the finding that as another
COVID-19 winter looms, half (49%) of Canadians say they do not think
about the virus much anymore. This sentiment varies across the country.
COVID-19 is not in the thoughts of three-in-five (61%) in Saskatchewan, while
as many in Nova Scotia (58%) say they still think about the virus:
Note: Because its small
population precludes drawing discrete samples over multiple waves, data on
Prince Edward Island is not released. Men are more likely than women to
say they aren’t thinking about COVID-19. Seven-in-ten (68%) women over the
age of 54 disagree, the most of any demographic:
Majority rarely or never
masking As of Oct., 1,
the federal government no longer required masking on airplanes, ending the
last mask mandate in the country outside of health care settings. Outside of
airports, masks have not been required for most
of 2022. As cases of the BQ
variant rise, few Canadians say they are wearing masks when they are in
public places around people. One-in-six (15%) say they are always wearing a
mask in places like grocery stores and banks. Another one-in-six (16%) are
doing so most of the time. A majority are either wearing them rarely (27%) or
never (41%). Those in Alberta (58%) and Saskatchewan (59%) are
most likely to say they are never wearing a mask. Two-in-five in Ontario
(40%), Nova Scotia (39%) and Newfoundland and Labrador (44%) say they are
wearing masks half of the time or always around other people:
Note: Because its small
population precludes drawing discrete samples over multiple waves, data on
Prince Edward Island is not released. Men, and especially those under the age
of 55, are the most likely demographic to say they are never masking.
Meanwhile, one-quarter (26%) of women over the age of 54 say they are always
masking when they are in public places:
Part Two: A return to
mandates? Half support return of
mask mandates if cases rise Canada’s health system is facing pressure from a
triple threat of viruses – RSV,
flu, and COVID-19. Experts
believe a return to mandatory masking could help limit the spread of
the three viruses. For now, there’s been little
movement towards mask mandates from government officials. More than half (54%) of Canadians say mask mandates
should return to their province if COVID-19 cases continue to rise. This view
seemingly runs in contrast to Canadians’ own voluntary actions, as far fewer
– just three-in-ten (31%) – are wearing a mask more than half of the time in
public spaces. There is much less support – 21 per cent – for a
return of vaccination passports. Two-in-five (42%) believe neither measure is
necessary. Those who are already wearing a mask regularly are
enthusiastic about a return to mandatory public health measures. Among those
who wear a mask less than half of the time, but not never, two-thirds (65%)
would support the government forcing them to do so:
Women over the age of 54 – the age group most likely
to be masking as noted above – are the most likely to say mask mandates
should return to their province at 72 per cent. In fact, majorities of women
of all ages believe masking should be mandatory if COVID-19 cases continue to
rise. Among men, only those over the age of 54 support a return of mask
mandates at a majority level:
Regionally, support for mask mandates is highest in
Nova Scotia (60%), Newfoundland and Labrador (62%) and Quebec (59%). Support
is lowest in Saskatchewan, where two-in-five (39%) believe mask mandates
should return if there is a surge of COVID-19 infections:
Note: Because its small
population precludes drawing discrete samples over multiple waves, data on
Prince Edward Island is not released. Support for masking
mandate much lower than earlier in pandemic Canadians’ support for masking mandates is much
lower than it was at earlier points in the pandemic. As recently as February,
in the wake of the Omicron wave which infected nearly 30 per cent of Canadian
adults, approaching three-quarters (72%) supported mask mandates where they
lived. In the months since, support has declined to more than half of
Canadians (54%). Related: Angus
Reid, U of T study shows Omicron triples Canada’s COVID-19 infection count Support has rebounded in Alberta
(36% to 45%), Quebec (50% to 59%) and Manitoba (49% to 54%) from valleys in July. Elsewhere,
support remains consistent with levels seen in the summer:
Survey Methodology The Angus Reid Institute
conducted an online survey from Nov. 28 – Dec. 3, 2022 among a representative
randomized sample of 5,030 Canadian adults who are members of Angus Reid
Forum. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would
carry a margin of error of +/- 1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. The survey was
self-commissioned and paid for by ARI. For detailed results by
age, gender, region, education, and other demographics, click here. To read the full report,
including detailed tables and methodology, click here. To read the questionnaire
in English and French, click here. Image – Dev
Asangbam/Unsplash MEDIA CONTACT: Shachi Kurl, President:
604.908.1693 shachi.kurl@angusreid.org @shachikurl Dave Korzinski, Research
Director: 250.899.0821 dave.korzinski@angusreid.org Summary table follows:
December 22, 2022 Source: https://angusreid.org/covid-unmasked-unwilling/ AUSTRALIA
774-43-17/Polls 53% Of Australians Would
Vote Yes To Establish An Aboriginal And Torres Strait Islander Voice To
Parliament
This special Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey was
conducted with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,499 Australians aged 17+
over the weekend from Friday December 9 - Monday December 12, 2022. Respondents around Australia were asked: “If a referendum were held today that establishes an
Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice to Parliament would you vote Yes,
No or are you undecided?”. There is a clear political
divide on the ‘Voice to Parliament’ In contrast, nearly two-thirds of L-NP supporters,
64%, would vote ‘No’ to establishing a ‘Voice to Parliament’ compared to only
15% who would vote ‘Yes’. Over a fifth of L-NP supporters, 21%, are undecided
on which way they would vote. One Nation supporters are the most firmly against
the proposed ‘Voice to Parliament’ with nearly three-quarters, 71%, saying
they would vote ‘No’ to the ‘Voice to Parliament’ compared to only 18% who
would vote ‘Yes’ in favour of the proposal. There are slim majorities who would vote ‘Yes’ to
the ‘Voice to Parliament’ amongst supporters of Independents (54%) and
supporters of Other Parties (59%). Five States in favour of
‘The Voice’, Queenslanders are yet to be convinced For a referendum to pass in
Australia a majority of Australian voters nationally as well as a majority of
voters in a majority
of States (four out of six) must vote in favour of the proposal. The results of this special Roy Morgan Snap SMS
survey on ‘The Voice to Parliament’ show that slim majorities in three States
(New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia), as well as larger majorities
in two other States (Western Australia and Tasmania), would see ‘The Voice’
referendum proposal succeed. Support for a ‘Voice to
Parliament’ by State:
A majority of women and
all age groups under 65 would vote ‘Yes’ for ‘The Voice’ There are clear gender and age gaps
that emerge when we analyse support for ‘The Voice’ among different
demographic segments. A clear majority of women (57%) would vote ‘Yes’ for
‘The Voice’ compared to only around a quarter, 26%, that would vote ‘No’
while a further 17% are undecided. Men are more split on the question with a large
plurality of 49% indicating they would vote ‘Yes’ for ‘The Voice’ compared to
35% who would vote ‘No’ and a further 16% are undecided. A majority of all age groups under the age of 65 say
they would vote ‘Yes’ for ‘The Voice’ on a referendum with the highest
support among younger Australians aged under 35 (60%) and almost as many aged
35-49 (57%) say they would vote ‘Yes’. A slim majority of people aged 50-64 (52%) say they
would vote ‘Yes’ for ‘The Voice’, but nearly a third (31%) of that age group
say they would vote ‘No’. The only age group with a distinctly different view
is those aged 65+, but there is no majority for either side with this older
cohort. A plurality of people aged 65+ say they would vote ‘No’ (47%) to ‘The
Voice’ compared to 40% who would vote ‘Yes’ while 13% are undecided. Respondents were asked a follow-up question, ‘And why do you say that’ to
explain their reasoning for saying they would vote ‘Yes’, ‘No’ or were
undecided about ‘The Voice’. For the 53% of respondents who said they would vote
‘Yes’ to support the establishment of an ‘Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander
Voice to Parliament’ the key themes to emerge were that Aboriginal people
should have a voice and representation – they deserve to be heard, because
it’s about time and long overdue, it’s just generally the right thing to do,
it’s an important part of reconciliation and closing the gap, and because
indigenous and First Nations people deserve recognition in the constitution. For the 30% of respondents who said they would vote
‘No’ to the establishment of an ‘Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice
to Parliament’ the key themes they mentioned were because it would be
‘divisive’, because they don’t trust government and politicians so why trust
them with this, the lack of detail and not having enough information about
it, that indigenous Australians already have a voice and representation and
that there is already an over-representation of Aboriginals in the Federal
Parliament (11) compared to population size and because everyone should have
equal standing. For the one-in-six respondents (17%) that are
‘Undecided’ about how they would vote on a referendum to establish an
‘Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice to Parliament’ the key themes
included not knowing enough about it and a lack of understanding about what
it means, needing more information to make an informed choice and the general
lack of details about how it would operate and what its functions would be. Michele Levine, CEO Roy
Morgan, says a Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey shows a slim majority of 53% of
Australians now say they will vote ‘Yes’ to establish an ‘Aboriginal and
Torres Strait Islander Voice to Parliament’ – although the actual referendum
is not due to be held until late 2023: “A special Roy Morgan Snap
SMS survey shows a slim majority of 53% of Australians are ready to vote ‘Yes’
to establish an ‘Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice to Parliament’
in the Australian constitution compared to just under a third, 30%, who say
they would vote ‘No’. About one-in-six Australians, 17%, are still undecided
about how they would vote. “The good news for
proponents of the constitutional change is that a majority of Australians and
a majority of Australians in a majority of States (NSW: 52% Yes; Victoria:
55% Yes; WA: 63% Yes; SA: 54% Yes and Tasmania: 68% Yes) say they would vote
‘Yes’ to establish ‘The Voice’. Only in Queensland is there an unclear result
with only 44% saying they will vote ‘Yes’ to establish ‘The Voice’. “For a referendum to pass
in Australia a majority of voters around the country as well as a majority of
voters in at least four out of the six States must vote in favour of a
change. The last successful referendums to pass in Australia were nearly 50
years ago in 1977 when Australians voted in favour of reforming Senate Casual
Vacancies, the conduct of Referendums and the Retirement of Judges. “In a warning for those
who don’t want to see the referendum on ‘The Voice’ become politicised there
are already clear political lines being drawn between proponents and
opponents of the change. Large majorities of ALP supporters (76%) and Greens
supporters (89%) say they will vote ‘Yes’ to establish ‘The Voice’ whereas
nearly two-thirds of L-NP supporters (64%) and approaching three-quarters of
One Nation supporters (71%) say they will vote ‘No’ against the establishment
of ‘The Voice’. “One of the key arguments
used by those who are undecided, as well as many of those who say they will
vote ‘No’, is that there is not enough information out there about what ‘The
Voice’ will actually do and how it will operate. For some people this lack of
detail means they are undecided, for others it already means they have
decided to vote ‘No’. “Many of those arguing
against the establishment of ‘The Voice’ say indigenous Australians already
have sufficient representation – including 11 Members of Federal Parliament
(5%) which is higher than their share of the wider population. There are also
many who believe ‘The Voice’ would be divisive and that everyone should have
an equal standing. “For those intending to
vote ‘Yes’ to establish ‘The Voice’ the key arguments are that it’s about
time indigenous Australians had proper representation because as the original
inhabitants of this land they deserve to be heard and listened to. Many also
mentioned that establishing ‘The Voice’ is an important part of reconciliation
and that First Nations people should be recognised in the Australian
constitution rather than ignored. “Although it is still
early days the Albanese Government has pledged to hold a referendum later
next year on whether to establish an ‘Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander
Voice to Parliament’ and history shows that passing a referendum in Australia
generally requires bipartisan agreement on the change. “Already the Federal
National Party has come out against the proposed change by supporting the
view of indigenous Country Liberal Senator Jacinta Nampijina Price who sits
in the National’s party-room. The Federal Liberal Party under Peter Dutton
has yet to take a position on the issue and has called for the Albanese
Government to release more details on the proposed change. “The results of this
special Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey suggest even if the Federal Liberal Party
hasn’t made up their minds on the issue many of their voters are already set
against the idea.” For further comment or
more information contact: To purchase full demographic
breakdowns by Gender, Age, City/Country including Voting Intention and
detailed quantitative and qualitative verbatim responses to the open-ended questions relating to
how Australians view the proposed referendum question on establishing an
‘Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice to Parliament’ for a price of $9,800 contact Roy
Morgan Poll Manager Julian McCrann. By
Email: julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com. By Phone: 9224 5365. Australians surveyed were each asked the following
question:
This special Roy Morgan Snap SMS
survey was conducted with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,499 Australians aged 17+
from Friday December 9 - Monday December 12, 2022. Margin of Error The margin of error to be allowed for in any
estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based.
Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates
would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points
above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as
stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
December 20, 2022 MULTICOUNTRY
STUDIES
774-43-18/Polls Global Predictions For
2023; A Study Across 36 Countries
2022 in retrospect: What
was it like for you? In what has become an
annual tradition, Ipsos has asked more than 24,000 citizens from 36 countries
to reflect on the year that has passed as well as the year ahead. As 2022 has been marked by COVID-19, international
conflict, economic problems and an increasingly urgent climate crisis, many
agree that it has been a challenging year. As usual, there is a marked
difference between how people feel the year has been for themselves and their
families and how it has affected their country as a whole. On average, in all
36 countries, over half (56%) describe 2022 as a bad year for themselves and
their families. Even more (73%) say it has been a bad year for their country.
And yet these figures suggest some improvement. Both
are better than the corresponding figures for 2021 (which were 58% and 77%,
respectively), and significantly better compared to annus horribilis, in
2020, where 90% said it had been a bad year for their country and 70% that it
had been a bad year for themselves and their family.
Looking ahead to 2023 However, this cautious optimism is not evident in
all areas of life. Of the 17 questions in which we have trend data since
2021, especially those that focus on what 2023 will be like, about half show
a significantly more pessimistic view of what next year will bring. Much of
this negativity deals with the economic situation, but it extends beyond the economy
and includes climate-related disasters, the use of nuclear weapons, and even
asteroid impacts and alien visits. The economy in 2023
Overall, there is much more pessimism about the
global economy than we saw at this time last year. Only 46% on average
believe that the global economy will be stronger next year, compared to 61%
last year and 54% in 2020. People in Belgium are the most pessimistic about
the economy, with only 27% expecting to see improvements, while those in
China and the UAE, where 78% and 76% respectively expect better times, are
the most optimistic. The reasons for this pessimism are clear. A large
majority expects both the cost of living (79% expect prices to rise, 75%
expect to see higher inflation rates), the level of unemployment (68%) and
interest rates (74%) to rise. Even more worrying is the fact that almost half
(46%) believe that it is likely that their country will have to be rescued
with the support of the International Monetary Fund, with South Africa (78%)
and Argentina (70%) being particularly concerned about this possibility. About half (50%) believe that major stock markets
around the world are likely to crash, a significant increase from 2022, when
35% thought they were likely to go down. This year, 15% of people think this
is very likely. World security in 2023
World security has been very important to everyone
in 2022, with active conflict zones in several parts of the world and rising
international tensions in others. The possible escalation of such conflicts has
heightened concerns that nuclear weapons will be used somewhere in the world.
Almost half (48%) now feel that this is a likely scenario rather than just a
possibility, a marked increase from the 34% we saw at this time last year.
These fears are particularly high in Indonesia (69%) and Peru and Colombia
(both 62%). The role of technology in potential disruption is
also recognised. More than 4 in 10 (44%, up from 38% last year) say it's
likely hackers from a foreign government will cause a global IT shutdown. 22% believe an asteroid attack on Earth is likely in
2023 (up from 16% last year and 15% the year before), while 18% expect aliens
to visit Earth (up from 14% last year). Environment in 2023
Most people around the world believe we will see
more climate change in 2023. For example, 65% (up from 60% last year) say
it's likely there will be more extreme weather events in their country next
year. Many countries – especially in Europe – are pessimistic about the role
of technology in halting climate change. Less than 20% of people in Britain,
France, Belgium, Poland, Switzerland, Hungary and Romania believe that it is
likely that a breakthrough technology will be developed that will stop
climate change. The Japanese are also pessimistic on this front (only 14% of
Japanese feel it is likely to happen). More than half (57%) also feel that 2023 is likely
to be the hottest year on record where they live, while around one in three
(36%) are even more pessimistic, believing it is likely that parts of their
country will become uninhabitable due to an extreme weather event in the
coming year. More than four in ten (45%, up from 39% last year)
expect a natural disaster to hit a major city in their country. There is a
particularly wide spread of country variations on this issue, with concern,
ranging from 78% in Indonesia, 66% in Turkey and 65% in the US down to less
than 25% in Ireland, Hungary and Israel (all 24%), Switzerland and Denmark
(both 23%) and Romania (22%). Expectations of great progress in tackling climate
change are relatively low: The number who expect to see people fly less than
they did in 2019 before the COVID-19 pandemic has fallen from 45% last year
to 42% now. This is undoubtedly driven by a desire to resume old travel
habits as the rules and restrictions put in place to try to limit the spread
of Covid have been relaxed around the world. Only about a third believe that
the number of bicycles is likely to exceed the number of cars in their
capital (34%) or that a ground-breaking technology will be developed that
will stop climate change (32%). Society in 2023
6 out of 10 (60%) do not expect any further COVID-19
lockdowns in their country next year as people return to some form of
normality. In China and South Korea, about half of the people surveyed (43%
and 44%, respectively) believe that this is likely to be the case. Whereas
the vast majority (82%) in Indonesia are very confident that they will not
experience further lockdowns in 2023. It is not yet clear to what extent the changes in
work patterns caused by COVID-19 will continue to evolve – only around one in
three (37%) believe it will become normal for companies in their country to
implement a four-day work week during 2023. The proportion who believe that
many more people will live their lives in virtual worlds is largely unchanged
from last year (56%). Worldwide, about one in three (34%, up from 28% last
year) say it is likely that people in their country will become more tolerant
of each other, but there are huge differences from country to country. In
India, this continues to rise (65% now, up from 60% last year) and although
it is still low, in France the percentage has almost doubled from last year
from 9% in 2022 to 17% in 2023. Japan has now replaced France at the bottom
of the table, with only 12% believing that people will become more tolerant
of each other. Outlook 2023
Even with all the negativity and uncertainty about
the future, two out of three (65%) still expect a better year in 2023 than
they experienced in 2022 — ranging from 36% in Japan to 85% in Brazil.
China's optimism has fallen from 94% in 2022 to 83% in 2023. Optimism for the coming year has fallen
significantly (by more than 10 percentage points) in 24 of the 32 countries
covered in the survey this year and last year, with particularly large
declines in Sweden (-26 points), Italy, Denmark and South Korea (all down 19
points) and Japan (-18 points). In only one market, optimism has increased –
in Brazil – and even there it has increased only marginally (from 82% to
85%). Like most other years, three out of four (74%) say
they will make some personal decisions about doing some specific things for
themselves or others in 2023. As many as 91% in Peru, 90% in Colombia and
Mexico and 89% in China say this. The Netherlands (45%), Japan (41%) and
Sweden (35%) are the only countries where a minority will have New Year's
resolutions.
19 December 2022 Source:
https://www.ipsos.com/da-dk/globale-forudsigelser-2023 774-43-19/Polls How Can Brands Adapt For A
Sustainable Festive Season; Survey Across 12 Countries
With increased concerns about sustainability, many
are starting to feel some discomfort in navigating the festive season as they
think about how to have an eco-friendly end-of-year holiday without skimping
on the festive magic. We explore how people’s
attitudes toward sustainability influence how they decide to celebrate and
what this means for brand owners. The survey was carried out online between
9-11th December 2022 and covered 12 countries: USA, Colombia, Argentina, UK,
Spain, Italy, Germany, France, South Africa, India, China, and Australia. We interviewed
4800 people in total, with 400 national representative interviews in each
country. Making the festive season
sustainable to keep its magic If people look forward to the festive season,
between over-consumption and waste, people’s desire to do whatever they can
to fight climate change and environmental issues remain. At a time typically
charged with an abundance of goodwill, people are looking for ways to make
the festivities more sustainable.
The topic of gifting is another important area of
consideration with 34% globally saying they try to choose gifts sustainably
and responsibly.
For the majority, 64%, the festive season is first
and foremost a time for them to connect with their loved ones. Celebrating
traditions also plays an important role for half of the population across the
globe, and one of these has become exchanging gifts with friends and family.
Unfortunately, 64% globally say they have received gifts they didn't end up
using or didn’t want during end-of-year celebrations.
Black Friday and Cyber Monday fuelling a culture of
overconsumption We asked people when they start to buy presents for
the end-of-year festivities. With some local differences, 38% start before
Black Friday and Cyber Monday and almost as many, 36%, start after. For brand
owners, it means that people are not only just after deals; the consideration
and planning around gift shopping goes beyond the frenzy of these well-known
commercial events.
This year, we have seen an increasing number of
brands opting out of Black Friday and Cyber Monday due to the negative impact
it has on the planet and the unfair treatment of workers in the process of
manufacturing and distribution of products. A quarter of the population
globally say they purposefully avoided Black Friday and Cyber Monday this
year. This movement is even stronger in Australia and Europe, reaching 41% in
Germany.
How can brands adapt for a Sustainable Festive
Season? Navigating end-of-year celebrations can be
challenging for both people and brands. Discomfort around over-consumption
and waste is palpable, yet people want to make people feel loved and
appreciated at this time of the year. Similarly, brands can be conflicted
between the commercial opportunity of the festivities and their desire to
advance their sustainable agenda. We share three considerations for brands to
embrace a planet-friendly end-of-year: 1. Don’t let your brand become the gift that
people wish they didn’t get The festive season is a key opportunity to tap into
sustainability trends and show people that you are aligned with their push
for greener festivities and lifestyles. This means showing up with offers
designed to last, favouring quality over quantity, being more local and
seasonal, and minimising waste, including eco-friendly packaging. Gift
shopping starts early, so the best activation will come from ongoing efforts
that authentically meet evolving consumer expectations around sustainability. 2. Take a different approach to Black Friday
and Cyber Monday Whether taking part in Black Friday and Cyber Monday
degrades perceptions of your brand, or not, is undefined. However, as a
growing number of people feel strongly about these events, making a statement
for more sustainable consumption at this moment could certainly send a strong
signal about where your brand stands on the question of sustainability. Part
of defeating overconsumption is about promoting more responsible consumption,
for example, through second-hand and reconditioned products. Promoting or
discounting sustainable offerings or services only during these events might
be a way to differentiate, whilst taking part in this highly competitive
moment for brands. 3. Embrace circular thinking and stay away from
landfills If, unfortunately, you do end up being the unwanted
gift, consider how you can make it easy for people to regift, swap or return
your products. Learn from how people dispose of your products and utilise
this knowledge to adapt and optimise your portfolios with circular thinking. 21 December 2022 774-43-20/Polls Among 19 Surveyed Countries
Americans See Their Country’s Global Influence Weakening Than Getting
Stronger
In the U.S., views on this question are
closely related to partisanship. A 63% majority of Republicans and
Republican-leaning independents say American influence on the global stage is
getting weaker. Only 37% of Democrats and Democratic leaners say the same. In other countries, too, politics plays a role in
the way people see their country’s influence in the world. In almost every
country surveyed, those who do not support the political party in power are
more likely than supporters to believe that their country’s influence in the
world is getting weaker. In 13 countries, those who do not support the ruling
party are at least 10 percentage points more likely than supporters to see
their country’s influence weakening. This difference is largest in Greece,
where close to half (47%) of those who do not support the governing party,
New Democracy, say Greece’s influence in the world is getting weaker. Only 6%
of New Democracy supporters say the same – a difference of 41 points. Besides Greece, there is a difference of around 20
points or more between governing party supporters and nonsupporters in
Hungary, Spain, South Korea, Canada, France, the U.S. and the United Kingdom. In about half of the countries surveyed, respondents
who say there are very or somewhat strong conflicts between political parties
are more likely to say their country’s global influence is diminishing. In
the UK, for example, 44% of those who see serious conflict between partisan
groups say their country is losing influence globally. Just 30% of those who
do not see serious
political differences agree. In Israel, by contrast, those who see strong party
conflicts are more likely than those who do not to say their country’s
international influence has been getting stronger in recent years (59% vs. 46%). People who are not satisfied with the current state
of their democracy are also more likely to say their country’s global
influence is on the wane. In every country surveyed, respondents who say they
are not satisfied with their democracy are more likely to think their world
influence has gotten weaker in recent years.
This is especially the case in Hungary, Canada,
Greece, France and South Korea. In these five countries, those who are
dissatisfied with democracy are more likely than those who are satisfied to
say their country’s global influence has become weaker in recent years by
about 30 percentage points or more. In most places surveyed, people who are
satisfied with their democracy are more likely to say their country’s
influence has been getting stronger. People who rate their democracy critically on
another measure – whether or not individuals are able to influence politics –
are also more likely to say their country’s international influence is
weakening. This is the case in nearly all places surveyed, but especially in
Hungary and Canada. Views on this question also vary by whether
respondents are optimistic or pessimistic about the long-term economic future
of children in their country. In almost every place surveyed, those who feel
that children in their country will be worse off financially than their
parents are also more likely to say that their country’s global influence is
getting weaker. In Hungary, for example, 53% of those who say children will
be worse off in the future also say that Hungary’s influence is getting
weaker. By comparison, only 21% of those who believe children in Hungary will
be better off financially than their parents say the same. Note: Here are the questions used for this analysis, along with responses.
Visit our methodology database for more information about the
survey methods outside the U.S. For respondents in the U.S., read more about
the ATP’s methodology. DECEMBER 22, 2022 774-43-21/Polls Fortunately, Hope Continues To Be Stronger Than
Despair; Survey Across 36 Countries
In Turkey, individuals
think that 2022 is a worse year for Turkey than the world average (73%)
(83%).
Countries are more
desperate for 2023. Individuals in Turkey are among the 10 countries
that express the most desperate views for 2023. While 65% of individuals in
the average of countries are more optimistic for 2023, this rate is 54% in
Turkey.
In almost all countries,
the view prevails that price increases will be greater than people's incomes. The situation is similar
in Turkey. 8 out of 10 people agree with this idea.
3 out of every 4 people in
the world think that inflation will be higher in 2023 than in 2022. In almost
all countries, this view is 70% and above. In Turkey, the rate of
individuals stating that inflation will be higher than 2022 is 79%.
In 2023, the rate of
negative opinions about both the Turkish economy and the personal economy is
around 60%. Ipsos,
Turkey CEO Sidar Gedik made the following evaluations about the data; Recently,
we have started to encounter the term "Polycrysis", which we can
use as "Multiple Crises" in Turkish. Multiple crises are used in
definitions of multiple crises occurring at the same time, resulting in
greater damage than they would individually cause. The period we are going
through is not a period of crisis, but a period of "crises". The
Covid-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, high inflation are the first hot
crises that come to mind, but in the background, tensions in different
geographies, polarizations for a sharpening society, climate change and other
global problems such as migration continue to exist violently. The level at which
problems are felt varies from country to country, of course, but the vast
majority feel unhappy and hopeless. In only 4 of the 36 countries surveyed by
Ipsos Global Advisor have less than half of those who think 2022 is a bad
year for the country. Those countries are Saudi Arabia, the United Arab
Emirates, China and Switzerland, and in those countries, 44-48% think 2022 is
not a good year. So this is the case even in the most optimistic countries.
Overall, three out of four say 2022 is bad for their country. In 15 of the 36
countries, this rate is over 80%. In the UK, which has had a year full of
prime minister changes amid political uncertainties, 87% of citizens say it
was a bad year for the country. 83% of the respondents from Turkey think that
2022 is a bad year for our country. The striking part is that
even this negative picture is more positive than the previous 2 years. There
is a 4-point improvement in the average of countries compared to 2021. So
this is an improved (!) picture. Of the 36 countries, the
average of those who think 2022 will be a bad year for themselves and their
families is 56%. The most negative result among the 36 countries in this
title is in Turkey. 72% of the respondents from our country state that 2022
is a bad year for them and their families. Fortunately, hope
continues to be stronger than despair. More optimists that next year will be
a better one. However, the negative outlook for the year ending also extends
to the expectations for the year that will begin, where the optimism is
gradually decreasing with an alarming trend. Moving from 2021 to 2022, the
proportion of optimists was 77%, while the rate for 2023 decreased to 65%.
The rate of optimists in Turkey decreased by 5 points compared to the
previous year and became 54%. When we select high
inflation among the crises, we see that the evaluation of the participants in
the research is quite negative. Eight out of ten people think that next year
prices will increase at a higher pace than their income. This is not only a
negative picture, but one that is evolving more and more negatively, with 4%
fewer people thinking this way last year. The rate of those who think this
way is 80% in Turkey. 2022 was a year in which
inflation began to climb for many countries. Even in advanced economies,
inflation rates have been measured at levels not seen for decades. In our
country, it reached unprecedented levels in the 2000s. With the shock of this
situation, citizens in the 36 countries where the research was conducted
believe that inflation will continue to rise in 2023. Three in four people
think there will be even higher inflation next year. In Turkey (although
experts predict that inflation will decrease with the base effect), the rate
of citizens who think that there will be higher inflation is 79%. According to our findings
in Turkey, more than half of the citizens believe that both the country's
economy and their personal economic situation will be worse. In this way,
there is an increase in the proportion of negative thinkers compared to last
year, with six out of ten people being pessimistic. However, there is also an
increase in the proportion of those who are optimistic about 2023. There will be an important
election in 2023, with some of the society hoping for it, while a much larger
part is pessimistic. The other finding that stands out is that in this
dizzying change, those who think that their country and personal economies
will remain the same are significantly decreasing. Of course, let's hope the
optimists are vindicated. December 22, 2022 Source: https://www.ipsos.com/tr-tr/neyseki-umut-umutsuzluktan-daha-guclu-olmaya-devam-ediyor 774-43-22/Polls Among 23 Countries; Global
Consumer Confidence Is Holding Up
The Global Consumer Confidence Index is the average
of all surveyed countries’ National Indices. This month’s installment is
based on a monthly survey of more than 17,000 adults under the age of 75 from
23 countries conducted on Ipsos’ Global Advisor online platform. This survey
was fielded between November 25 and December 9, 2022. While the Overall Index is up a small 0.4 points
from last month, it continues to remain muted compared to the start of the
year. It remains nearly three points lower than in January. The same is true
of the Expectations and Investment sub-indices, which are down around four
points since January. In contrast, the Jobs’ sub-index remains in-line with
its readings to begin the year.
This month, China (+2.7) and Italy (+1.5) are the
only countries to show a significant month-over-month gain in their National
Index (i.e., 1.5 points of more). However, no country shows a significant
decline this month. National Index Trends China (72.2) holds the highest National Index score
this month, and it is the only country with a score above 70. Saudi Arabia
(69.5) and India (64.2) continue to be the only other countries with a
National Index score above 60. Similar to last month, just four other countries
show a National Index above the 50-point mark: Australia (52.6), Brazil
(52.0), the U.S. (50.4), and Mexico (50.3). Eight countries now show a National Index below 40:
Spain (39.5), Belgium (38.8), South Korea (37.4), Poland (35.9), Japan
(35.8), Argentina (35.5), Turkey (34.4), and Hungary (30.9). Consumer
confidence in Japan has fallen nine points since the start of 2022, and
currently sits at its lowest point since September 2020. Just six countries have a National Index score that
is significantly higher than in February 2022, prior to the start of the war
in Ukraine: Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, India, China and Mexico. In
contrast, it is significantly lower than it was then in 15 countries.
Jobs, Expectations, and
Investment Index Trends Among 23 countries:
22 December 2022 Source:
https://www.ipsos.com/en/global-consumer-confidence-index-december-2022 |
