|
BUSINESS
& POLITICS IN THE WORLD GLOBAL
OPINION REPORT NO.757 Week: August 22 – August 28,
2022 Presentation: September 02,
2022 73%
Pakistanis Say That Unemployment Has Risen As Compared To The Last 6 Months Heatwave
In Mainland China Pushes Up Beverage Sales Just
Over Half Of Congolese Expressed Their Willingness To Give President
Tshisekedi A Second Term Half
(50%) Of Kenyans Disapprove Of The Formation Of A Unitary Government For East
Africa 6
In 10 Do Not Trust Boris Johnson To Tell The Truth, Nearly Twice As Many As Keir
Starmer Six
In Ten Britons Now Have An Unfavourable View Of Utility Companies One
In Four Britons Have Had To Cut Essential Spending 1
In 3 Britons Say Affording Energy Bills Has Been Difficult In The Past Three
Months Record-Low
28% Of Britons Say Their Standard Of Living Is Getting Better Finns
believe that Russia is more than 90% to blame for the war Romir:
The Expenses Of Russians Have Grown In
U S Suffering Rate Reaches At Its Highest 5.6% 46%
Of Americans Who Have Invested In Cryptocurrency Say It’s Done Worse Than
Expected Soaring
Prices Has Four-In-Five Canadians Pinching Pennies For
Colombians, Cannabis Tax Would Improve Investment The
‘Hidden Unemployed’ Must Not Be Ignored At The Jobs & Skills Summit Citizens
Are Responsible For Holding MPs Accountable; Survey Across 32 African States INTRODUCTORY NOTE
757-43-22/Commentary:
42
Percent Japanese Say The Government Should Establish A Legal System To Let
Spouses Retain Their Birth Names
An important aspect of the
survey below is that the Japanese legislature faulted the survey findings and
urged to review the Question wording. The Justice Ministry, out of consideration for
conservative politicians, forced what critics say was a misleading public
opinion survey on the issue of allowing married couples to have separate
surnames, The Asahi Shimbun learned. The Cabinet Office, which conducted the “legislation
about family” survey, repeatedly asked the Justice Ministry to withdraw its
suggested changes for the survey questions, but the ministry refused,
official documents obtained by The Asahi Shimbun showed. The survey was conducted on 5,000 randomly selected
people 18 years old or older from December 2021 to January this year. The results showed that public support for a system
that gives married couples the option to have dual surnames had plummeted to
a record low 28.9 percent. The survey used to be conducted through face-to-face
interviews, but the latest one was mailed to respondents because of the
COVID-19 pandemic. According to the disclosed documents, the Justice
Ministry in July 2021 decided to move forward the schedule of the survey,
which had been conducted every five to six years. Those were not the only changes. In previous surveys, the question on dual surnames
asked respondents to choose from these answers, provided in this order: (1)
maintain the status quo; (2) allow married couples to have dual surnames; and
(3) allow the use of birth names as business names in a legal system, even if
the married couples must use only one surname. In the 2017 survey, 42.5 percent of respondents said
the government should allow married couples to have separate surnames. A record high 42.2 percent in the latest survey said
the government should establish a legal system to let spouses retain their
birth names, up 18 points from the previous survey. For the latest survey, the Justice Ministry and the
Cabinet Office’s Gender Equality Bureau had agreed to adjust the questions
after some Diet members said they were “hard to understand.” The ministry proposed dividing up the one question
and setting up a new independent question that asks respondents if they think
it is necessary to establish a legal system to expand the use of birth names
as business names. The bureau, however, pushed back, saying the central
government had yet to fully discuss the issue regarding the legalization of
the use of birth names. The ministry withdrew its proposal and created a
reference table to accompany the question. In that table, it used the
expression “a legal system that enables (married couples) to widely use their
birth names as a business name.” But the bureau took issue with the term “widely,”
saying its vagueness could “mislead public opinion.” According to the documents, the ministry refused to
change the wording because “dropping the term ‘widely’ would not go down well
with conservative politicians.” “It was summed up that we would conduct the survey
with an attitude that it should be neutral in order not to receive criticism
from various sides,” a senior ministry official said. Seiko Noda, then state minister in charge of gender
equality, criticized the survey when the results were released in March this
year. She said the changed wording and order of the
answers created misleading results if compared with previous surveys. Opposition lawmakers also said the latest survey
method was questionable. Masaki Taniguchi, a professor of Japanese politics
at the University of Tokyo, said the survey should have simply asked respondents
if they supported or opposed the legalization of dual surnames, and asked
separately if they supported or opposed the legal expansion of the use of
birth names. Taniguchi said it is “absurd” for the ministry to
give consideration to politicians of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party. “It undermines the public’s trust in the survey,” he
said. (Asahi Shimbun) August 22, 2022 Source: https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/14700373 757-43-23/Country Profile:
SUMMARY
OF POLLS
ASIA (Japan) 42 Percent Japanese Say The
Government Should Establish A Legal System To Let Spouses Retain Their Birth
Names The Justice Ministry, out
of consideration for conservative politicians, forced what critics say was a
misleading public opinion survey on the issue of allowing married couples to
have separate surnames, The Asahi Shimbun learned. A record high 42.2 percent
in the latest survey said the government should establish a legal system to
let spouses retain their birth names, up 18 points from the previous survey. For
the latest survey, the Justice Ministry and the Cabinet Office’s Gender
Equality Bureau had agreed to adjust the questions after some Diet members
said they were “hard to understand.” (Asahi Shimbun) August 22, 2022 (India) 7 Out Of Every 10 People Think That
Technological Developments Have Made Human Life Easier 7 out of every 10 people
think that technological developments have made human life easier. 4 out of
every 10 people think that the developing technology has a negative impact on
human relations. Although the proportion of those who disagree with this view
has not changed over the years, the proportion of those who are undecided on
this issue is increasing. Internet usage is increasing every year and in
2022, 9 out of every 10 people use the internet and 93% of these people say
that they use the internet every day. (Ipsos Turkey) 23 August 2022 (Pakistan) 73% Pakistanis Say That Unemployment Has Risen
As Compared To The Last 6 Months According to
Dun&Bradstreet and Gallup Pakistan Consumer Confidence Index, Concerns
regarding rising unemployment persist as nearly 73% Pakistanis say that
unemployment has risen as compared to the last 6 months. A nationally
representative sample of adult men and women from across the four provinces
was asked the following question, ““In your opinion, compared to the previous
six months, today’s unemployment has…?” In response to this question, 47%
said ‘worse’, 13% said ‘better’. (Gallup Pakistan) August 24, 2022 (China) Heatwave In Mainland China
Pushes Up Beverage Sales FMCG sales in Mainland
China increased by 3.9% year-on-year in the 12 weeks to 15 July 2022,
according to Kantar Worldpanel’s figures. The four weeks in July witnessed a
4.8% boost in shopper spend, suggesting that recovery from the previous
lockdown is accelerating. Food saw a steady 4.8%
increase in sales during the last four weeks while, with the heatwave
spreading to more cities in July, beverage sales surged by 14%. Although the
shockwave resulting from the most recent lockdown dragged down spend on
personal care products, the return of social activities helped it reach 2.1%
year-on-year growth in July. (Kantar) 25 August 2022 AFRICA (Congo) Just Over Half Of Congolese
Expressed Their Willingness To Give President Tshisekedi A Second Term Just over half of those
surveyed expressed their willingness to give President Tshisekedi a second
term, while a third said they did not intend to vote for another candidate.
While potential rivals have strong regional support bases, none of them
appear to have enough support at the national level to mount a significant
challenge. President Tshisekedi's re-election prospects therefore look good
at this stage. (Geo Poll) AUGUST 23, 2022 (Kenya) Half (50%) Of Kenyans
Disapprove Of The Formation Of A Unitary Government For East Africa Two-thirds (66%) of
Kenyans have either heard “nothing” (36%) or just “a small amount” (22%)
about the proposed East African Federation (EAF) or else say they “don’t
know” (8%). Only a narrow majority (52%) approve of allowing the free
movement of goods, services, and labour across national borders, and even
fewer (49%) support monetary union or a common currency. Half (50%) of
Kenyans disapprove of the formation of a unitary government for East Africa,
while only 44% favour this plan. (Afrobarometer) 23 August 2022 (Nigeria) Almost 9 In 10 Nigerians Lament
The Impact Of Petrol Price Increase On Other Commodities A new public opinion poll
conducted by NOIPolls to evaluate the price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS)
popularly called Petrol has revealed that an overwhelming majority of adult
Nigerians (89 percent) nationwide lamented over the impact of the cost of
petrol on their spending on other commodities and that of their household as
it has drastically increased. Consequently, to estimate the average cost of
petrol across the country, 53 percent of Nigerians who use petrol disclosed
that they buy petrol at an average retail price between ₦181 –
₦200 per litre nationwide. According to the National Bureau of
Statistics (NBS) on state profile analysis, the highest average retail price
for petrol (PMS) was recorded at ₦195.55 per litre in June 2022. (NOI Polls) August 23, 2022 WEST EUROPE (UK) 6 In 10 Do Not Trust Boris
Johnson To Tell The Truth, Nearly Twice As Many As Keir Starmer New research by Ipsos
shows the public are very sceptical when it comes to trusting politicians to
tell the truth, especially the Prime Minister, Boris Johnson. Around 6 in 10
say he generally does not tell the truth very often or never (61%) while
fewer than 1 in 5 (18%) say he tells the truth at least most of the time. Distrust
of Mr Johnson has risen from nearer 2 in 5 (39%) when last polled in June
2020, whilst trust has dropped for around three in ten (31%). Men are more
likely to trust the outgoing Prime Minister to tell the truth than women (23%
vs. 13% respectively). (Ipsos MORI) 22 August 2022 Six
In Ten Britons Now Have An Unfavourable View Of Utility Companies With the cost of living
crisis continuing to hit wallets everywhere, Britons are bracing for news of
how the energy price cap is set to change. Rising prices mean that public
sentiment towards the energy firms have taken a hammering. According to
YouGov’s public tracker data, 63% of Britons now have a negative view of
utility companies (water,
electricity, gas providers, etc). This includes 33% of Britons who have a
“very” unfavourable view of the sector. Just 10% have a favourable view,
while 23% have a neither favourable nor unfavourable view. (YouGov UK) August 22, 2022 One In Four Britons Have Had To Cut Essential
Spending Britain is experiencing
the worst cost of living crisis in a generation. Inflation has now soared past 9% - the highest it has been in
40 years - with no clear end in sight. This has also “driven the fastest fall in real pay on
record”.
Amidst these increases, the vast majority of people believe the government is
failing to tackle the situation. Over three quarters (77%) say the government
is doing too little to help those struggling with the rising cost of living,
including 64% of Conservative voters. Even Boris Johnson says that more needs to be
done to
address this crisis. (YouGov UK) August 25, 2022 1 In 3 Britons Say Affording
Energy Bills Has Been Difficult In The Past Three Months New research by Ipsos in
the UK, taken 22nd – 24th August, shows high levels of public concern about
the rising cost of living, with one in three saying it has been difficult to
afford their energy bill before the expected further rise in the energy cap. Families
have also struggled. 37% of those with children in the household say it has
been difficult paying their bills. 3 in 10 workers expect to work more hours
at their current job because of the rising cost of living, while the same
proportion of Britons in general expect to sell some of their personal
belongings (30%). (Ipsos MORI) 25 August 2022 Record-Low 28% Of Britons Say Their Standard Of
Living Is Getting Better As inflation in the United
Kingdom soars to levels not seen in 40 years, Gallup surveys show Britons are
less optimistic about their standard of living now than they were even during
the height of the Great Recession. In fact, the 28% of Britons who said in
June that their standard of living is getting better is the lowest level that
Gallup has measured in the U.K. at any time in the past 16 years. (Gallup) AUGUST 26, 2022 (Finland) Finns believe that Russia is
more than 90% to blame for the war Public opinion was
measured by a question such as the following: "To what extent do you
think the following actors are to blame for the war in Ukraine? Set a
percentage for each party, so that the percentages become a total of one
hundred." Women (93.16%) and those over 65 (94.40%) believe most
strongly in Russia's guilt. 47 per cent of Finns rated Ukraine's guilt at
around zero per cent. However, a good tenth of Finns think that the other
side of the war may also have something to do with the conflict, and they
estimate that Ukraine is to blame for the war with a share of 1–9 per cent. (Taloustutkimus) August 25, 2022 (Russia) Romir: The Expenses Of Russians
Have Grown In the period from 15 to
21 August, the average weekly expenses of Russians increased compared to the
previous week by 2.1%. The index of
weekly expenses amounted to 5,536 rubles. in annual dynamics,
the index increased by 9.5%. The index of
the average check compared to the previous week increased by
0.6%. The average cost of one purchase was 677 rubles. Compared to the same
period last year, the index is higher by 7.5%. (Romir) August 23, 2022 NORTH AMERICA (USA) In U S Suffering Rate Reaches At Its Highest
5.6% The percentage of
Americans who evaluate their lives poorly enough to be considered "suffering"
on Gallup's Life Evaluation Index was 5.6% in July, the highest since the
index's inception in 2008. This exceeds the previous high of 4.8% measured in
April and is statistically higher than all prior estimates in the COVID-19
era. Across extensive measurement since January 2008, the suffering
percentage has reached 4.5% or higher on a handful of occasions. (Gallup) AUGUST 22, 2022 46% Of Americans Who Have Invested In
Cryptocurrency Say It’s Done Worse Than Expected The turmoil in
cryptocurrency markets has taken a toll on investments. Among the 16% of U.S.
adults who say they have ever invested in, traded or used a cryptocurrency
such as bitcoin or ether, 46% report their investments have done worse than
they expected, according to a new Pew Research Center survey. By comparison,
15% of these Americans say their investments have done better than they
expected, 31% say they have worked out about the same as they expected and
another 8% say they are not sure. (PEW) AUGUST 23, 2022 (Canada) Soaring Prices Has Four-In-Five Canadians
Pinching Pennies A financial temperature
check of Canadians finds many sweltering in the heat of inflation. Half (52%)
say they couldn’t manage a sudden expense of more than $1,000. For
two-in-five (38%), a surprise bonus of $5,000 would be used to alleviate the
pressure of debt. For one-in-ten, it would immediately be put towards daily
expenses. Fully four-in-five say they have cut spending in recent months by
either trimming their discretionary budget, delaying a major purchase,
driving less, scaling back travel and charitable donations, or deferring
saving for the future. This represents an increase from the three-quarters
(74%) who said so in February. (Angus Reid Institute) August 22, 2022 (Colombia) For Colombians, Cannabis Tax Would Improve
Investment The expectation of growth
in the cannabis industry in Colombia has been taking shape in recent years,
given the medicinal and cosmetic products that are being produced in the
country. Faced with the results of a survey delivered by CNC, it was shown
that 91% of the citizens surveyed who have used cannabis-based medicinal or
cosmetic products would recommend other people to use the same. Similarly,
when asked if they have ever been to a store that sells these products, 63%
of respondents answered no, while 37% said they had been in one of them. (CNC) August 25, 2022 AUSTRALIA The ‘Hidden Unemployed’ Must Not Be Ignored At
The Jobs & Skills Summit “One of the key factors
driving the Jobs & Skills Summit is the call by many business leaders to
immediately increase immigration to address apparent ‘skills and labour
shortages’. “The latest Roy Morgan unemployment figures for July show there
are 1.25 million Australians out of work and looking for a job (8.5% of the workforce)
and another 1.27 million Australians who want to work more hours (8.6% of the
workforce). This means a total of over 2.5 million Australians (17.1% of the
workforce) want to either work more hours or find a job – that is over 1-in-6
Australians in the workforce. (Roy Morgan) August 23 2022 MULTICOUNTRY STUDIES 5 Out Of 10 Europeans (49%) Rely On Public
Televisions And Radios For Information, Study Across 25 States On average, 5 out of 10
Europeans (49%) rely on public televisions and radios for information, a
percentage that in Spain represents 45%. The written press also has a lot of
confidence among European citizens, placing second with 39%, although this
confidence is even greater in the Spanish case, where it is almost at the
same level as television and radio (44%). After the public media we find the
private ones as the third source of news that arouse the most confidence,
especially among the Spanish public with 36%, while at the European level it
drops to 27%. (Ipsos Spain) 24 August 2022 Citizens Are Responsible For Holding MPs
Accountable; Survey Across 32 African States The share of Ugandans who
say it is the voters’ responsibility to hold MPs accountable has is 56% in
2022. When compared against a larger set of 32 African countries surveyed in
2019/2021, Ugandans are more likely than most other Africans to say that
citizens are responsible for holding MPs accountable (Figure 2).3 Only in
Malawi (72%) and Kenya (60%) do we see significantly higher expectations of
bottom-up accountability. In contrast, 25 countries record lower
expectations, including fewer than one in five citizens in Mauritius (19%)
and Sudan (16%). (Afrobarometer) 25 August 2022 ASIA
757-43-01/Polls 42 Percent Japanese
Say The Government Should Establish A Legal System To Let Spouses Retain
Their Birth Names
An
important aspect of the survey below is that the Japanese legislature faulted
the survey findings and urged to review the Question wording. The Justice Ministry, out of
consideration for conservative politicians, forced what critics say was a
misleading public opinion survey on the issue of allowing married couples to
have separate surnames, The Asahi Shimbun learned. The Cabinet Office, which
conducted the “legislation about family” survey, repeatedly asked the Justice
Ministry to withdraw its suggested changes for the survey questions, but the
ministry refused, official documents obtained by The Asahi Shimbun showed. The survey was conducted
on 5,000 randomly selected people 18 years old or older from December 2021 to
January this year. The results showed that
public support for a system that gives married couples the option to have
dual surnames had plummeted to a record low 28.9 percent. The survey used to be
conducted through face-to-face interviews, but the latest one was mailed to
respondents because of the COVID-19 pandemic. According to the disclosed
documents, the Justice Ministry in July 2021 decided to move forward the
schedule of the survey, which had been conducted every five to six years. Those were not the only
changes. In previous surveys, the
question on dual surnames asked respondents to choose from these answers,
provided in this order: (1) maintain the status quo; (2) allow married
couples to have dual surnames; and (3) allow the use of birth names as
business names in a legal system, even if the married couples must use
only one surname. In the 2017 survey, 42.5
percent of respondents said the government should allow married couples to
have separate surnames. A record high 42.2 percent
in the latest survey said the government should establish a legal system to
let spouses retain their birth names, up 18 points from the previous survey. For the latest survey, the
Justice Ministry and the Cabinet Office’s Gender Equality Bureau had agreed
to adjust the questions after some Diet members said they were “hard to
understand.” The ministry proposed
dividing up the one question and setting up a new independent question that
asks respondents if they think it is necessary to establish a legal system to
expand the use of birth names as business names. The bureau, however,
pushed back, saying the central government had yet to fully discuss the issue
regarding the legalization of the use of birth names. The ministry withdrew its
proposal and created a reference table to accompany the question. In that
table, it used the expression “a legal system that enables (married couples)
to widely use their birth names as a business name.” But the bureau took issue
with the term “widely,” saying its vagueness could “mislead public opinion.” According to the
documents, the ministry refused to change the wording because “dropping the
term ‘widely’ would not go down well with conservative politicians.” “It was summed up that we
would conduct the survey with an attitude that it should be neutral in order
not to receive criticism from various sides,” a senior ministry official
said. Seiko Noda, then state
minister in charge of gender equality, criticized the survey when the results
were released in March this year. She said the changed
wording and order of the answers created misleading results if compared with
previous surveys. Opposition lawmakers also
said the latest survey method was questionable. Masaki Taniguchi, a professor
of Japanese politics at the University of Tokyo, said the survey should have
simply asked respondents if they supported or opposed the legalization of
dual surnames, and asked separately if they supported or opposed the legal
expansion of the use of birth names. Taniguchi said it is
“absurd” for the ministry to give consideration to politicians of the ruling
Liberal Democratic Party. “It undermines the
public’s trust in the survey,” he said. (Asahi Shimbun) August 22, 2022 Source:
https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/14700373 757-43-02/Polls 7 Out Of Every
10 People Think That Technological Developments Have Made Human Life Easier Technological
Developments Make Human Life Easier 7 out of every 10 people
think that technological developments have made human life easier.
As
Technology Evolves, I Feel Safer However, as technology
develops, the proportion of people who feel safe has fallen to 16% in 2022.
The number of individuals who do not have a clear opinion on this issue is
increasing.
Developing
Technology Negatively Affects Human Relations 4 out of every 10 people
think that the developing technology has a negative impact on human
relations. Although the proportion of those who disagree with this view has
not changed over the years, the proportion of those who are undecided on this
issue is increasing.
The
Computer and the Internet Make People Asocial, Distance Them from Other
People 66% of the population
thinks that the internet takes people away from other people.
Internet usage is
increasing every year and in 2022, 9 out of every 10 people use the internet
and 93% of these people say that they use the internet every day. Ipsos,
Turkey CEO Sidar Gedik made the following evaluations about the data; One
of the most prominent technologies in our daily lives is the Internet and, of
course, the various services offered over the Internet. I was working in the
Internet industry when we were entering the 2000s, and in our future
projections at that time, we predicted that the number of users would
increase at a speed that could not be compared to radio and television, which
were previously important communication inventions. Over time, especially
with the acceleration created by the mobile internet, a picture beyond our
predictions has emerged. As of the point we have reached, we can say that almost
everyone in our country uses the Internet every day. There has been a
remarkable decline over the years in the proportion of people who think
technology has badly affected human relationships, with six out of ten people
thinking this way in 2018 and four out of ten in 2022. For the new
generation, the fact that the current technologies do not create an extra
positive or negative perception also has an important impact, for them
everyday events... For example, as the use of technology has become commonplace
over time, there has been a significant decrease in the proportion of those
who say that it makes our lives easier, while in 2006 85% think this way, in
2022 the rate is 70%. In 2020-2021, at the
height of the Covid-19 pandemic, the Internet has been one of our saviors, we
have embraced the Internet while working, communicating, shopping. On the
other hand, although there is a channel that connects us to our loved ones
during the "stay at home" period, two out of every three people think
that the Internet is cutting people away from other people. This picture was
similar before the pandemic, physical conversations are important for
socializing, we don't want to be forced to the Internet. (Ipsos Turkey) 23 August 2022 Source:
https://www.ipsos.com/tr-tr/gelisen-teknoloji-insan-iliskilerini-nasil-etkiliyor 757-43-03/Polls 73% Pakistanis
Say That Unemployment Has Risen As Compared To The Last 6 Months
According to
Dun&Bradstreet and Gallup Pakistan Consumer Confidence Index, Concerns
regarding rising unemployment persist as nearly 73% Pakistanis say that
unemployment has risen as compared to the last 6 months. A nationally
representative sample of adult men and women from across the four provinces
was asked the following question, ““In your opinion, compared to the previous
six months, today’s unemployment has…?” In response to this question, 47%
said ‘worse’, 13% said ‘better’, 13% said ‘same as before’, 26% said ‘much
worse’, 0% said ‘much better and 1% did not respond or said they don’t know.
Gallup Pakistan and D&B Consumer Confidence Index is a quarterly report
tracking the pulse of consumers in Pakistan. The report is produced since
2020 and all 8 reports are available on demand. Please write to Bilal I
Gilani, Executive Director Gallup Pakistan: bilal.gilani@gallup.com.pk The
full report of Gallup Pakistan and D&B Consumer Confidence Index Q1 2022
can be found on this link: https://gallup.com.pk/post/33476 Question: “In
your opinion, compared to the previous six months, today’s unemployment
has…?”
(Gallup Pakistan) August 24, 2022 Source:
https://gallup.com.pk/wp/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/August-24-English.pdf 757-43-04/Polls Heatwave In
Mainland China Pushes Up Beverage Sales
FMCG sales in Mainland China
increased by 3.9% year-on-year in the 12 weeks to 15 July 2022, according to
Kantar Worldpanel’s figures. The four weeks in July witnessed a 4.8% boost in
shopper spend, suggesting that recovery from the previous lockdown is
accelerating. Food saw a steady 4.8%
increase in sales during the last four weeks while, with the heatwave
spreading to more cities in July, beverage sales surged by 14%. Although the
shockwave resulting from the most recent lockdown dragged down spend on
personal care products, the return of social activities helped it reach 2.1%
year-on-year growth in July. Among Mainland China’s
major modern trade retailers, Sun Art managed to hold its market-leading
position, despite its share of total FMCG spend shrinking by 0.8 percentage
points over the past 12 weeks compared to last year. Walmart continued to
perform well due to the consistently strong growth of Sam’s Club. In contrast, Vanguard and
Suning lost the most in terms of market share – decreasing by 0.8% and 0.7%
respectively, driven by a loss of shoppers. Online FMCG shopping
maintained its robust sales growth, with spend increasing by 6.8% in the past
12 weeks, and upper-tier regions delivering an increase of more than 12%
thanks to more aggressive online promotions. Having previously been affected
by restrictions on transportation, ecommerce lost some penetration, but this
was offset by a 9.4% increase in the number of trips. JD Group snatched 0.5% of
market share from other retailers, on the back of its strong performance
during the 618 ecommerce festival. Douyin and Kuaishou kept up their growth
momentum by acquiring more shoppers, increasing penetration by 10.3% and 2.9%
respectively. The short-video platforms demonstrated their strength
throughout the lockdown, positioning themselves well for faster development
in the future.
Within the platform-based
retailers, Community Group Buy and Aggregator sites grew fastest, with
Community Group Buy in particular achieving substantial uplifts in
penetration which resulted in significant sales growth, even after the
lockdown. (Kantar) 25 August 2022 Source:
https://www.kantar.com/inspiration/fmcg/heatwave-in-mainland-china-pushes-up-beverage-sales AFRICA
757-43-05/Polls Just Over Half
Of Congolese Expressed Their Willingness To Give President Tshisekedi A
Second Term
The results of the first
round of interviews reveal several key socio-political parameters and trends. Respondents cite
unemployment, poor infrastructure and insecurity as Congo's most pressing
concerns. There is significant pressure on President Felix Tshisekedi to make
progress in these and other areas, especially as he seeks a second term in
the elections scheduled for 2023.
Just over half of those
surveyed expressed their willingness to give President Tshisekedi a second
term, while a third said they did not intend to vote for another candidate.
While potential rivals have strong regional support bases, none of them
appear to have enough support at the national level to mount a significant
challenge. President Tshisekedi's re-election prospects therefore look good
at this stage. One aspect of the current
president's performance that more than 80 percent of respondents agree on is
that he represents a significant improvement over the previous administration
of Joseph Kabila. Only 5% of respondents at the national level believe that
Kabila would be a viable candidate for the presidency in the next elections.
Respondents who think the country is better run under President Tshisekedi
are twice as likely as those who prefer the Kabila years.
(Geo Poll) AUGUST 23, 2022 Source:
https://www.geopoll.com/blog/socio-political-barometer-democratic-republic-of-the-congo/#en 757-43-06/Polls Half (50%) Of
Kenyans Disapprove Of The Formation Of A Unitary Government For East Africa
Key findings § Two-thirds (66%)
of Kenyans have either heard “nothing” (36%) or just “a small amount” (22%)
about the proposed East African Federation (EAF) or else say they “don’t
know” (8%). §
Only a narrow majority (52%) approve of allowing the free movement of goods,
services, and labour across national borders, and even fewer (49%) support
monetary union or a common currency. § Half (50%) of
Kenyans disapprove of the formation of a unitary government for East Africa,
while only 44% favour this plan. § Only three in 10
Kenyans (29%) say they have heard “some” or “a great deal” about the East
African Legislative Assembly (EALA). § A plurality
(47%) of Kenyans say ordinary people should choose their representatives to
EALA through direct popular vote, while 44% prefer to have them chosen by
Kenya’s Parliament. Plans and progress toward the proposed East African
Federation Shaped by similar historical experiences and guided by a vision of
pan-East Africanism, the founding presidents of Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda
first considered a regional political federation as a springboard to regional
integration in the 1960s. But the idea languished for more than three decades
until the three states ratified the EAC Treaty in 1999, more than two decades
after the collapse of its predecessor in 1977 (Adar, 2005). According to
Nyongo (1990), regional integration in Africa has often been characterised by
an absence of clear consensus on the benefits and a lack of political will.
But the establishment of regional economic communities (RECs) under the
African Union Agenda 2063 informed the EAC’s quest to position itself as a
strategic economic community in Africa and beyond. In a move to broaden its
geopolitical influence and to tap new markets, the EAC has expanded well
beyond the original three countries, admitting the Democratic Republic of
Congo as its seventh member in March 2022 (East African Community, 2022b).
Kaburu and Adar (2020) argue that meaningful integration depends on the
involvement of the people who will be the subjects and beneficiaries of such
a process. According to Article 7(1) of the EAC Treaty, principles governing
the achievement of the community’s objectives include a “people-centered and
market-driven co-operation” and “the establishment of an export-oriented economy
for the Partner States in which there shall be free movement of goods,
persons, labour, services, capital, information, and technology” (East
African Court of Justice, 1999). The customs union and the common market were
seen as major steps in that direction. In fact, the 2019 Africa Regional
Integration Index Report (African Union, 2019) rated the EAC as “relatively
well integrated,” performing most strongly on the free movement of people and
on macroeconomic integration. The report ranked Kenya as performing best
among the partner states, followed by Uganda, while the worst performers are
South Sudan and Burundi. However, while this report presents a positive
outlook on the EAC as a regional body, it does not address the fundamental
concern of whether the citizenries of the partner states are aware of and
involved in the integration process, much less supportive of it. And the role
that the EALA should play in developing legislation and representing citizens
at the regional level is still largely hidden from public view. Popular
awareness and support The most recent Afrobarometer survey in Kenya (2021)
found that two-thirds (66%) of Kenyans have either heard “nothing” (36%) or
just “a small amount” (22%) about the proposed East African Federation (EAF)
or else say they “don’t know” (8%) (Figure 1).
Support for the elements
of federation Sustainable regional integration is defined by the extent to
which member states are willing to embrace common policies, such as free
movement of goods, services, and labour. The customs union, a foundation for
the EAC, entailed free trade (or zero duty) on goods and services among the
partner states, which also agreed to a common external tariff regime for
imports from countries outside the EAC zone. The customs union opened the way
for a full common market, also allowing for free movement of labour, which
came into force in 2010. While the goal of free movement of goods, services,
and labour is to enhance trade among the East African partners, only a slim
majority (52%) of Kenyans approve of free trade and movement, while 42%
oppose it. Concerns related to the opening of regional markets within the EAC
are not unique to Kenyans: A majority of Tanzanians appreciate the benefits
of integration but are skeptical of its possible effects considering flooded
labour markets from Kenya (Katera, 2008; Knowles, 2014; Balongo, 2015).
Moreover, although the EAC Secretariat has earmarked 2024 for adoption of a
single currency, only half (49%) of Kenyans support this measure, against 44%
who oppose it. And skepticism about more extensive integration runs deeper
still: Support for the formation of a unitary government stands at only 44%,
while 50% disapprove (Figure 4).
Changes in support for,
and resistance to, integration show some surprising patterns over time.
Afrobarometer asked a similar set of questions about integration and
federation in its Round 4 survey in 2008. At that time, support for free
movement of goods and services and for free movement of labour (asked as two
separate questions in 2008) was substantially higher, at 64% and 63%,
respectively. But support for monetary union was much lower than it is now,
at just 30%, and support for unitary government was lower still, at just 19%. Kenyans’ uncertain
commitment to free trade comes out in other data as well. In the Round 8
Afrobarometer survey conducted in 2019, respondents were asked whether “in
order to develop, our country must rely on trade with the rest of the world,
including by opening our borders to foreign imports,” or whether the country
should instead rely on local production and protect domestic producers.
Kenyans were evenly divided on this question, with 49% preferring open
borders and 48% opting for protection of domestic producers. However, support
for free movement of people across borders within the region was much
stronger: 61% agreed that people in the region should be “able to move freely
across international borders in order to trade or work in other countries,”
vs. 38% who instead wanted the government to limit cross-border movement. But
an equal 61% reported that in practice it is “difficult” or “very difficult”
for people in the region to cross borders for trade or work (Sanny & Patel,
2021). Overall, it appears that opening borders to freer movement of people
is the most popular element of regional integration from the perspective of
ordinary Kenyans, and an objective that is still far from being achieved in
reality. Further analysis points to levels of education and income as sources
of disparity in opinions regarding free movement. For example, while a large
majority (73%) of respondents with post-secondary education approve of the
free movement of goods, services, and labour, only 39% of respondents with
primary or no formal education feel the same (Figure 5).
The East African
Legislative Assembly Article 49 of the EAC Treaty established the East
African Legislative Assembly (EALA), also known as the East African
Parliament, as the legislative organ of the EAC. Apart from producing
regional legislation, the EALA also plays roles in representation and
oversight at the regional level, serving as the representative of the
sovereign will and interests of the East African citizenry at the EAC. The
EALA is the link between the EAC and the national parliaments of the member
states. Despite its importance, Afrobarometer findings indicate that seven in
10 Kenyans (71%) have either heard nothing (43%) or only a small amount (20%)
about it or say they “don’t know” 8%). Only 29% of respondents have heard
some or a great deal about the EALA (Figure 7). We again see that
education appears to have the strongest links to awareness: 41% among those
with post-secondary education are at least somewhat familiar with the EALA,
compared to just 14% among those with no formal education (Figure 8).
Representation in the EALA
is based on sovereign equality among the member states. Thus, each member
state is represented by nine EALA members. According to the EAC Treaty, the
representatives are elected by the national parliaments based on nominations
reflecting the parties’ share of parliamentary seats. The main concern with
this approach is that parties’ nominations are not open and transparent, but
instead embed some of the worst features of Kenya’s political parties –
especially that they are personalised and ethnically driven and lack internal
democracy – in the EALA (Kaburu & Adar, 2020). Survey findings indicate
that Kenyans are divided on how EALA representatives should be selected: 47%
prefer direct election by ordinary citizens, but nearly as many (44%) opt to
maintain the current system of selection by parliament (Figure 9).
Conclusion The concept of
regional integration in East Africa has been around for more than 60 years,
but it is only in the past two decades that the region has taken significant
steps toward making full integration a reality. Changes are scheduled to
accelerate in the next couple of years, with monetary union and initial steps
toward federation looming on the horizon. While the states are central to
negotiating treaties and providing the necessary physical and institutional
infrastructure, it is the sustained engagement of the people that will make
44% 47% 9% Parliament should choose EALA representatives People should elect
EALA representatives Neither/Refused/ Don't know Copyright ©Afrobarometer
2022 10 regional integration feasible, since they are not only the subjects
but also the agents and beneficiaries of the process. But in Kenya, the EAF
may be looking at something of a crisis of popular legitimacy, given the
widespread lack of awareness about integration and uncertain support for its
key pillars. Per the 1999 treaty, the establishment of a federation will
eventually require a referendum in each partner state. The findings presented
here suggest that the Kenyan government and the EAC Secretariat may need a
deliberate, strategic approach to building public awareness and support.
Making sure that citizens are effectively represented in the East African Legislative
Assembly, perhaps even by transitioning to direct election of Kenya’s EALA
representatives, might be one way to spur badly needed interest and
engagement. (Afrobarometer) 23 August 2022 757-43-07/Polls Almost 9 In 10
Nigerians Lament The Impact Of Petrol Price Increase On Other Commodities
A new public opinion poll
conducted by NOIPolls to evaluate the price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS)
popularly called Petrol has revealed that an overwhelming majority of adult
Nigerians (89 percent) nationwide lamented over the impact of the cost of
petrol on their spending on other commodities and that of their household as
it has drastically increased. Consequently, to estimate the average cost of
petrol across the country, 53 percent of Nigerians who use petrol disclosed
that they buy petrol at an average retail price between ₦181 –
₦200 per litre nationwide. According to the National Bureau of
Statistics (NBS) on state profile analysis, the highest average retail price
for petrol (PMS) was recorded at ₦195.55 per litre in June 2022[1]. Though petrol scarcity
appears to have returned to normal especially in Lagos and Abuja, news report
has revealed that fresh scarcity may resurface in Abuja and environs due to
claims by Oil Marketers that the National Association of Road Transport
Owners (NARTO) members were not willing to take petrol to the nation’s
capital due to the poor condition of the roads. However, the NARTO’s
President, Yusuf Othman, gave the assurance and debunked the claim in an
interview with the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) on Thursday 4th August
2022 in Lagos[2]. Further findings revealed
that more than half of adult Nigerians (55 percent) interviewed disclosed
that they use patrol to power their generators while 49 percent use it for
cars. In line with this finding, data obtained from a power sector revealed
that more than 40 percent of households in Nigeria own and use generators for
their daily electricity requirements[3]. With power supply being one of the major
business constraints in Nigeria according to the Central Bank of Nigeria
(CBN), it has been revealed that Nigerians spend about $14 billion on
generator and fuel yearly to prevent their businesses from crippling[4]. Furthermore, the poll
result revealed that a larger proportion of Nigerians (57 percent) blame the Federal
Government for being responsible for the scarcity of petrol in the Country.
This is followed in a far distance by 11 percent who think the Marketers are
responsible for shortage of petrol. In addition, while 16 percent blame both
the Federal Government and the Marketers, another 16 percent stated that they
don’t know who to blame between the two stakeholders. Finally, it is
therefore important that all the stakeholders in the oil and gas sector
synergize and intensify efforts, especially in monitoring exercises, to
ensure that the petrol (PMS) allocated to each State of the Federation are
dispensed to buyers at the official price range. These are the key
highlights from the recent Petrol Price Monitoring Poll conducted by NOIPolls
in the week commencing August 8th, 2022, to evaluate petrol price
across the country. Survey
Background The issue of petrol
scarcity and the frequent price changes in the country has continued to be a
teething and perennial problem that has defied all possible solutions of tackling
it. Various governments in the past have proffered different solutions all to
no avail in trying to tackle the problem of petrol scarcity conundrum thereby
leaving the citizens in unending petrol availability problems which lead to
queues in most cases or price hike as recently witnessed. The inability of the
country to process its crude oil into refined petrol in the country due to
non-functional refineries at our disposal has continued to be a major source
of concern for anyone who cares to listen and the major reason why the
country will continue to experience petrol scarcity from time to time. The
question begging for answer is, what is the challenge aside the visible ones,
sabotaging the inability of the country from tackling the challenges of petrol
supply and distribution in the country. With four (4) refineries within the
country and daily petrol consumption of 65.7 million litres per day and with
a burgeoning population, it is only imperative if the petrol challenge is
surmounted head on to ameliorate the issue of petrol scarcity and price
change to bring succour to our teeming populace[5]. Furthermore, with
increasing cost of petrol subsidy now put at 6 trillion naira by the
estimation of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), it is a challenge on the
economy hence should be given priority attention. Other challenges affecting
the petroleum sector includes corruption, pipeline vandalism, sabotage,
insecurity, and a lack of political will on the part of government. More so,
there is the need for continuous and spirited effort to salvage the
situation, to bring the much-needed succour to our teeming populace who are
trapped in the quagmire of petrol supply. This will eventually improve the
quality of life of our citizens[6]. Against this background, NOIPolls
conducted this poll to monitor and evaluate the current price of petrol
across the country. Survey
Findings The first question sought
to gauge the proportion of Nigerians who buy petrol, and the poll result
revealed that 72 percent of adult Nigerians stated that they buy petrol. This
assertion cuts across gender, geographical locations and age-groups, with at
least 69 percent representation. Analysis by age-group shows that those aged
36 – 60 years accounts for the larger proportion of Nigerians who
acknowledged that they buy petrol. On the other hand, 28
percent mentioned that they do not buy petrol. Analysis by gender shows that
there are more female (44 percent) than male (12 percent) respondents who do
not buy petrol.
Respondents who stated
that they buy petrol were further probed to ascertain where they purchase
petrol. The poll finding revealed that a larger proportion of adult Nigerians
(55 percent) buy petrol from the Independent Marketer’s filling stations.
Analysis by region indicates that a higher fraction of Nigerians residing in
the northern region buy petrol from independent marketers filling stations
than those living in the southern region. Furthermore, 37 percent of
adult Nigerians confirmed that they buy petrol from major marketer’s filling
stations. Also, analysis by regions shows that Nigerians living in the
southern region buy petrol mostly from major marketer’s filling stations than
those residing in the northern region. In addition, 8 percent of the
respondents disclosed that they usually buy petrol from petrol hawkers, who
are also known as black-market sellers.
Consequently, to estimate
the average cost of petrol across the country, respondents were asked: How
much do you normally buy a litre of petrol in your locality? The poll result
showed that a larger proportion of adult Nigerians interviewed (41 percent)
disclosed that they purchase a litre of petrol between ₦181 –
₦200. Further analysis by region shows that the southern region
accounted for the higher percentage of Nigerians who purchase a litre of
petrol within this average cost range. Also, while 23 percent
wailed that they purchase a litre of petrol between ₦201 – ₦220
across the country, 17 percent lamented over buying a litre of petrol above
₦200. Analysis by region shows that a larger proportion of Nigerians in
this category reside in the northern region. On the contrary, 19 percent of
the respondents admitted that they purchase petrol at a range between
₦175 – ₦180 per litre.
Additionally, the price
paid per litre of petrol was cross tabulated by point of purchase. This
reveals that 68 percent of Major Marketer filling stations sell petrol
between ₦175 – ₦180 per litre, while 84 percent of Independent
Marketer filling stations sell a litre of petrol between ₦201 –
₦220. However, 37 percent of petrol hawkers (black market) sell above
₦221 per litre.
Furthermore, to gain
insight on consumption of petrol across the country, respondents were asked:
How frequently do you buy petrol? The poll findings revealed that a larger
proportion of adult Nigerians (31 percent) buy petrol daily. Analysis by
gender indicates that Nigerians residing in the southern region buy more
petrol daily than those living in the northern region. Also, analysis by
age-group shows that those aged between 18 – 60 years purchase more petrol
that those aged 61 years and above.
With respect to petrol
usage, the poll result revealed that more than half of adult Nigerians (55
percent) interviewed disclosed that they use patrol to power their
generators. It is worthy to note that they are more female (64 percent) than
male (50 percent) respondents who mentioned that they use petrol to power
their generators. Analysis by age-group shows that there is a decreasing use
of generator as age increases. For instance, Nigerians aged between 18 – 35
years accounted for the larger proportion of respondents who use petrol to
power their generators when compared to 48 percent of those aged 61 years and
above. Further analysis by region
indicates that Nigerians residing in the southern region use more petrol to
power their generators than their counterpart in the north.
Subsequently, when asked
about preference on price and availability of petrol, the poll result
revealed an even split as 47 percent of the respondent disclosed that the
price of the product is of most importance to them, whereas 47 percent
preferred availability over price. Analysis by gender suggests that while
female respondents are more concerned about the price of the product, the
male respondents are particularly about the availability of the product.
Furthermore, the poll
result revealed that an overwhelming majority of adult Nigerians (89 percent)
nationwide lamented over the impact of the cost of petrol on their spending
on other commodities and that of their household as it has drastically
increased. This assertion cuts across gender, geo-political zones, and
age-group with at least 76 percent representation.
The poll findings further
revealed that a larger proportion of Nigerians (57 percent) blame the Federal
Government as they disclosed that they are responsible for the scarcity of
petrol in the country. This is followed in a far distance by Nigerians (11
percent) who think the Marketers are responsible for the shortage of petrol.
Also, while 16 percent blame both the Federal Government and the Marketers,
another 16 percent stated that they don’t know who to blame between the two
stakeholders.
When asked about removal
of petrol subsidy, the poll result revealed that 60 percent of adult
Nigerians do not support the complete removal of petrol subsidy. This
affirmation cuts across gender, geo-political zones, and age-group with at
least 52 percent representation. On the contrary, 32 percent supports the
total removal of petrol subsidy in the country.
Conclusion In conclusion, this poll
has revealed that 41 percent of adult Nigerians who use petrol buy it at an
average retail price between ₦181 – ₦200 per litre nationwide,
resulting to an increase in spending on other commodities and that of their
household as disclosed by 89 percent of those interviewed. Also, the poll
finding has shown that a larger proportion of Nigerians buy petrol from
Independent Marketer’s filling stations across Nigeria. This is a wakeup call
for all stakeholders and government parastatals in charge of monitoring and
regulation to ensure that the official price of petrol is strictly adhered to
by the marketers. As a deterrent, the appropriate authorities must ensure
that they continue to arrest and prosecute Marketers found to be involved in
the hoarding and diversion of the products. Finally, major and independent
marketers should synergy to resolve the issues resulting in price challenges
which makes the dispensing prices vary among various marketers of the
product. (NOI Polls) August 23, 2022 Source:
https://noi-polls.com/petrol-price-monitoring-report/ WEST
EUROPE
757-43-08/Polls 6 In 10 Do Not Trust Boris Johnson To Tell The
Truth, Nearly Twice As Many As Keir Starmer
New research by Ipsos shows the public are very
sceptical when it comes to trusting politicians to tell the truth, especially
the Prime Minister, Boris Johnson. Around 6 in 10 say he generally does not tell
the truth very often or never (61%) while fewer than 1 in 5 (18%) say he
tells the truth at least most of the time. Distrust of Mr Johnson has risen from nearer 2 in 5
(39%) when last polled in June 2020, whilst trust has dropped for around
three in ten (31%). Men are more likely to trust the outgoing Prime
Minister to tell the truth than women (23% vs. 13% respectively). Even among those who voted for him, people are more
inclined to distrust Boris Johnson. While 29% of those who voted Conservative
in 2019 trust him to tell the truth most or all of the time, 46% do not.
Distrust increases to 80% of 2019 Labour voters, of whom only 8% trust him.
In comparison, opinion is split as to whether the
Leader of the Opposition can be trusted to tell the truth. Three in 10 (30%)
say they trust Keir Starmer most or all of the time while a third (33%) say
they do not. The proportion trusting Sir Starmer remains relatively
unchanged since June 2020 (when it was 33%), but distrust has risen from 19%.
However, among 2019 Labour voters, 45% say they trust him to tell the truth
at least most of the time. Looking at Boris Johnson’s potential replacements,
both candidates see similar levels of trust While 22% of Britons trust Liz
Truss to tell the truth all or most of the time, 23% say the same for Rishi
Sunak. Both lack the trust of nearly half of Britons (45%, 46% respectively). Among 2019 Conservative voters however, Liz Truss
sees slightly higher levels of trust. More than a third (36%) expect her to
tell the truth most or all of the time, while 29% do not. Meanwhile, 30%
expect Rishi Sunak to generally tell the truth; 36% do not. Looking at MPs more broadly, Britons are more likely
to have trust in their own MP than MPs in general. Three in 10 (30%) trust their own representative (-2
percentage points since June 2020) but this falls to 19% when asked about MPs
in general (unchanged). Similarly, only 18% trust Government ministers to
tell the truth (-3), half (50%) do not (+10). Kelly Beaver MBE, Chief
Executive, UK and Ireland at Ipsos, said: This poll illustrates
clearly the “trust problem” that Boris Johnson has with the British
public. And with almost one in two Britons not expecting either Rishi
Sunak or Liz Truss to tell the truth, it shows that both his potential
replacements have a way to go to gain the trust of the public. (Ipsos MORI) 22 August 2022 757-43-09/Polls Six In Ten Britons Now Have An Unfavourable View Of
Utility Companies
With the cost of living crisis continuing to hit
wallets everywhere, Britons are bracing for news of how the energy price cap
is set to change. Analysts have suggested the bill for an average
household could increase to £3,582 in October, which would be more than
double the rate it was the same time last year. Rising prices mean that public sentiment towards the
energy firms have taken a hammering. According to YouGov’s public tracker
data, 63%
of Britons now have a negative view of utility companies (water,
electricity, gas providers, etc). This includes 33% of Britons who have a
“very” unfavourable view of the sector. Just 10% have a favourable view,
while 23% have a neither favourable nor unfavourable view.
Negativity has been ticking up since July last year,
with the number of people with a “very” unfavourable opinion surging between
December and April, reaching a high of 39% at the beginning of April. The
number of people with a negative view overall has remained roughly consistent
since February this year.
This surge in negativity means that as many people
have a negative view of utility firms as have one of tobacco companies (66%
have an unfavourable opinion) and gambling firms (62%) – making it one of the
three most disliked industries out of 25 we track.
(YouGov UK) August 22, 2022 757-43-10/Polls One In Four Britons Have Had To Cut Essential
Spending
Two in five of those in
the lowest income households have had to make cutbacks in key areas Britain is experiencing the worst
cost of living crisis in a generation. Inflation has now soared
past 9% - the highest it has been in 40 years - with no clear end in sight.
This has also “driven
the fastest fall in real pay on record”. People are being faced with having to choose between
heating and eating, as food
and fuel poverty has more than tripled in a year and the energy
price cap – which places a limit on how much energy companies are allowed to
charge consumers – will rise yet again this October. Energy bill prices have
now increased
by 400% in the last year and 1,000% since 2019. Amidst these increases, the vast majority of people
believe the government is failing to tackle the situation. Over three
quarters (77%) say the government is doing too little to help those
struggling with the rising cost of living, including 64% of Conservative
voters. Even Boris
Johnson says that more needs to be done to address this crisis.
Almost all Britons (94%) say prices have increased
in the last six months, with 83% saying that they have increased by “a lot”. Rising prices mean many people have already had to
make spending reductions, with two thirds (66%) saying they have already made
some form of cut. This includes 23% who have already had to cut back on key
essentials, and 43% who have had to cut back on non-essentials in order to
maintain their essentials spending. Only 29% say they are untouched so far.
The number of those living in lower income
households (less than £20,000 a year) who have already made some form of cuts
increases to 76%, with the number who have had to cut key essentials rising
as high as 39%. But with prices looking like they will continue to
rise, many anticipate having to make cuts or further cuts. Nearly three
quarters (74%) expect to make future cuts, which includes 25% who haven’t yet
had to make any spending sacrifices. Just 12% of Britons say they have not made any cuts
yet, nor expect to have to make any.
In what areas are people
struggling to make do? About four in ten Britons say they have struggled
with food bills (42%) and energy bills (41%) in the past three months.
Additionally 37% of motorists have struggled with the cost of fuel (a figure
equivalent to 29% of all Britons). Those in lower income households are much more
likely to be struggling with energy bills (59%) and their food budgets (60%).
(YouGov UK) August 25, 2022 757-43-11/Polls 1 In 3 Britons Say Affording Energy Bills Has Been
Difficult In The Past Three Months
New research by Ipsos in the UK, taken 22nd – 24th
August, shows high levels of public concern about the rising cost of living,
with one in three saying it has been difficult to afford their energy bill
before the expected further rise in the energy cap. 1 in 3 say it has been
difficult paying their bill
What are Britons doing /
do they expect to do in response? As concern remain sky-high, we see Britons take
their own steps to reduce their own cost of living. Since the start of the
year, people are most likely to have started going out socialising less
(54%), changed their regular supermarket to a cheaper alternative (49%) or
driven their car less (48%) in response. Meanwhile, not turning the heating
on when they normally would have (47%) and using price comparison websites to
find cheaper energy suppliers (43%) are also popular actions.
How are Britons trying to
reduce their bills? Meanwhile, over the past 3 months, Britons have been
taking specific actions to reduce their energy bills / save money generally.
Almost 9 in 10 have been turning lights off when leaving a room (87%) at
least once a week, while three-quarters have turned electrical goods off when
not in use (75%). Around 2 in 3 are using less hot water (67%) at least once
a week and half are not turning their heating on when they usually would have
(49%) at least once a week.
In an effort to try and reduce their energy bills, 4
in 10 (39%) have used price comparison websites to look for a cheaper
supplier in the last 3 months while 36% have installed a smart meter at home.
Three in 10 (29%) are using savings to pay an energy bill while around 1 in 5
have either asked for a pay rise (21% of those currently in work) or set up a
payment plan with their energy supplier (20%).
Which policies are
supported by the public? While many have discussed the best ways to help the
British public cope with the rising cost of living, freezing the energy price
cap at its current level is the most popular in this poll with 65% selecting
it as one of the best solutions, while almost 6 in 10 say the same for
cutting VAT on energy bills (57%). Half support imposing a one-off tax on
energy supplier’s profits (50%) while around 4 in 10 are in favour of
extending government-funded discounts on energy bills (41%), removing the
green levy on energy bills (40%) or providing additional support from
government to people on benefits and pensioners (40%).
While all individuals included in the poll are not
trusted by a majority of people, Keir Starmer is slightly more trusted than
either of the potential Conservative Party leaders, or the outgoing Prime
Minister Boris Johnson. While 4 in 10 (39% vs. 51% who distrust) trust
Starmer to reduce the cost of living, 36% say the same for Rishi Sunak (55%
don’t trust), 32% for Boris Johnson (62% distrust) and 28% for Liz Truss (61%
say they do not trust her). Kelly Beaver MBE, Chief
Executive of Ipsos in the UK and Ireland, said: We’ve known for some time
that the public are concerned about the rising cost of living but these
findings highlight the extent of that concern. 1 in 3 are finding it
difficult to pay their bills before the new price cap is set, with families
and lower income households particularly affected but not the only ones. So
government and policy makers should be left in no doubt as to the scale of
the challenge we face this winter. (Ipsos MORI) 25 August 2022 757-43-12/Polls Record-Low 28% Of Britons Say Their Standard Of
Living Is Getting Better
As inflation in the United Kingdom soars to levels
not seen in 40 years, Gallup surveys show Britons are less optimistic about
their standard of living now than they were even during the height of the
Great Recession. In fact, the 28% of Britons who said in June that their
standard of living is getting better is the lowest level that Gallup has
measured in the U.K. at any time in the past 16 years.
This record low is likely to be tested at least
through early next year, as inflation, which has been driven higher by
surging energy and food prices in the U.K., could reach as high as 19% by one
estimate. In the current climate, Britons are being squeezed on all sides, as
the real value of workers' wages fell at its fastest rate in 20 years in
June, and growth in average earnings failed to keep up with the cost of
living. Further illustrating Britons' changing economic
fortunes over the past year, the percentage of Britons who see their living
standards getting worse has more than doubled since 2021. More than four in
10 adults (42%) this year say their living standards are getting worse, up
from 20% the previous year. Although not a record high, this is the highest
level of pessimism among Britons since the Great Recession, when 47% in 2008
said living standards were getting worse. Majority of Britons See
Deteriorating Economic Conditions Amid growing expectations that the
U.K. will enter recession by the end of the year, the majority (56%) of
Britons believe that their local economy is getting worse -- the highest level of pessimism in
a decade. This pessimism runs deep in British society, with majorities of
Britons at every income level -- from the poorest 20% to the richest 20% --
agreeing that conditions are getting worse.
Number of Britons
Struggling to Get By Edges Up At the time of the survey in June
of this year, many Britons had yet to feel the full effects of rising
inflation -- even as they braced for tougher times. The majority of Britons
(52%) said they were living comfortably on their present household incomes, which is one
of the highest percentages on recent record. Another 32% said they were
getting by. However, the percentage of Britons who were finding
it "difficult" or "very difficult" to get by on their
present household incomes inched up slightly from 11% in 2021 to 16% in
mid-2022.
Implications Whoever takes outgoing Prime
Minister Boris Johnson's seat must prepare themselves and their cabinet to
handle a cost crisis that a large proportion of their constituents find
alarming. As the Office of Gas and Electricity Markets increases the country's energy price
cap by 80%, and leaders such as London's Mayor Sadiq Khan declare inflation
to be out of control, the next prime minister will need to make tough choices
to curb energy prices and bring down prices for everyday goods. (Gallup) AUGUST 26, 2022 Source: https://news.gallup.com/poll/398057/britons-economic-outlook-turns-grim-inflation-soars.aspx 757-43-13/Polls Finns believe that Russia is more than 90% to blame
for the war
The Finns are very much in agreement about who is to
blame for the war in Ukraine: on average, 91.44% consider Russia to be
guilty. Public opinion was measured by a question such as
the following: "To what extent do you think the following actors are to
blame for the war in Ukraine? Set a percentage for each party, so that the
percentages become a total of one hundred." After the question, the following entities were
listed for the respondents in random, varying order (in parentheses, the
average percentage received by the entity – note: for survey technical
reasons, the sum of the averages of all actors may exceed one hundred):
Women (93.16%) and those over 65 (94.40%) believe
most strongly in Russia's guilt. The supporters of the True Finns are clearly
different from those of other parties, as "only" 86.16 per cent of
the True Finns consider Russia alone to be to blame for the conflict. 47 per cent of Finns rated Ukraine's guilt at around
zero per cent. However, a good tenth of Finns think that the other side of
the war may also have something to do with the conflict, and they estimate
that Ukraine is to blame for the war with a share of 1–9 per cent. Correspondingly, two-thirds of Finns think so
completely that Russia's guilt for the war is a full one hundred percent.
Thus, 64 per cent of Finns believe that other actors have no role to play in
the outbreak of a conflict. Despite their almost unanimous view, the Finns do
not want to completely and definitively destroy our relations with the East:
58% think that Finland should start restoring relations with Russia perhaps
sometime in the future. 18% would start restoring relations as soon as the
war is over and 7% would start right now. 12% of Finns are of the opinion that Finland should
no longer begin to restore its relations with Russia. Perhaps somewhat
surprisingly, young people under the age of 25 are the ones who think this
the most, even though they have not otherwise been as anti-Russian as the
older generation that remembers the Second World War better. Supporters of
the True Finns also have more of this extreme opinion (23 per cent) than
supporters of other parties. The supporters of the Left Alliance are a little
more willing than others to try to restore Finland's relations with Russia as
soon as possible, at the latest after the end of the war. (Taloustutkimus) August 25, 2022 757-43-14/Polls Romir: The Expenses Of Russians Have Grown
Romir Research Holding presents data on the weekly
expense index (INR) and the weekly average check index (INSCH). In the period from 15 to 21 August, the average
weekly expenses of Russians increased compared to the previous week by
2.1%. The index of weekly expenses amounted
to 5,536 rubles. in annual dynamics, the index increased by 9.5%.
The index of the average
check compared to the previous week increased
by 0.6%. The average cost of one purchase was 677 rubles. Compared to the
same period last year, the index is higher by 7.5%.
THE INR (Weekly Expenditure
Index) of the Romir research holding shows the
dynamics of the volume of consumption of consumer goods by Russians and is
calculated for each calendar week on the basis of the Romir Unified Data
Panel. THE INSCH (weekly average
check index) of the Romir research holding
shows the dynamics of the cost of household purchases and is calculated for
each calendar week based on the data of the Romir Unified Data Panel. (Romir) August 23, 2022 Source: https://romir.ru/studies/romir-rashody-rossiyan-vyrosli NORTH
AMERICA
757-43-15/Polls In U S Suffering Rate Reaches At Its Highest 5.6%
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- The percentage of Americans who
evaluate their lives poorly enough to be considered "suffering" on
Gallup's Life Evaluation Index was 5.6% in July, the highest since the
index's inception in 2008. This exceeds the previous high of 4.8% measured in
April and is statistically higher than all prior estimates in the COVID-19
era. Across extensive measurement since January 2008, the suffering
percentage has reached 4.5% or higher on a handful of occasions. The most recent results, obtained July 26 to Aug. 2,
2022, are based on web surveys of 3,649 U.S. adults as a part of the Gallup
Panel, a probability-based, non-opt-in panel of about 115,000 adults
across all 50 states and the District of Columbia. For its Life Evaluation Index, Gallup classifies
Americans as "thriving," "struggling" or
"suffering," according to how they rate their current and future
lives on a ladder scale with steps numbered from 0 to 10, based on the Cantril
Self-Anchoring Striving Scale. Those who rate both their current and
future lives a 4 or lower are classified as suffering. Those who rate their
current life a 7 or higher and their anticipated life in five years an 8 or
higher are classified as thriving. The percentage of U.S. adults estimated to be
thriving has steadily declined since it reached a record
high of 59.2% in June 2021. The latest estimate of 51.2% is an
18-month low. The lowest
recorded thriving rate of 46.4% was measured twice -- first, in
November 2008 amid the Great Recession, and second, in late April 2020,
during the initial economic shutdown associated with the outbreak of COVID-19
in the U.S.
Suffering Rate Has Doubled Among Republicans Since
June 2021 Suffering rates have notably climbed in recent
months for Democrats, Republicans and independents alike. Since June 2021 --
the highest point for the Life Evaluation Index among all Americans -- the
proportion who are suffering has doubled among Republicans, to 5.4%. Among
Democrats, it has also jumped to 5.4% -- nearly double the 2.9% from a year
ago. And independents were near 5% suffering before a significant increase to
7.3% in April 2022, which eased only slightly to 6.2% in July.
The movement in the suffering percentage is much
more consistent across the three groups than the changes measured in the
thriving percentage, which has declined much more for Republicans than their
counterparts since
June 2021. In July 2022, 53.0% of Democrats were classified as thriving,
compared with 52.2% of Republicans and 47.7% of independents. Daily Stress and Worry Climb Higher Than One Year
Ago In addition to general life ratings, Gallup tracks
whether Americans have recently experienced specific emotions in their daily
lives, including stress and worry. Americans' reports of experiencing stress have edged
up to 48% from 43% in July 2021. They remain well below the 60% recorded in
March 2020 at the start of the pandemic. Daily worry, at 42%, is also
elevated in comparison to the 38% of one year ago, but still lower than the
March 2020 reading of 59%. The spikes Gallup measured in March 2020 were
about four
times greater than the increases seen in 2008 as a result of the
Great Recession.
Implications Since reaching a record high in June 2021, life
ratings among American adults have steadily worsened. The 5.6% suffering rate
in July marks the first time the Gallup measure has exceeded 5% in the U.S.
and translates to an estimated 14 million American adults. Economic conditions are likely a major contributing
factor to these worsening scores. Despite the
addition of 528,000 new jobs in July, persistently high inflation is
creating a drag on the Gallup Economic Confidence Index, which is now at
its lowest
point since the Great Recession in 2009. And even though the
Consumer Price Index eased
to 8.5% in July -- triggering relief among many investors --
inflation remains near a 40-year high and is the
problem Americans cite most often today in an open-ended question.
The practical consequences of inflation, too, are substantial, with an estimated
98 million Americans cutting spending on healthcare or routine
household expenses as a result of rising healthcare costs. Dovetailing with economic headwinds is a rising
discontentment with U.S. moral values, which has reached a record high,
with 50% of Americans reporting the state of moral values is "poor"
and 37% "only fair," a sentiment that could be negatively
influencing life ratings generally. (Gallup) AUGUST 22, 2022 Source: https://news.gallup.com/poll/397286/poor-life-ratings-reach-record-high.aspx 757-43-16/Polls 46% Of Americans Who Have Invested In Cryptocurrency
Say It’s Done Worse Than Expected
The turmoil in cryptocurrency markets has taken
a toll on investments. Among the 16% of U.S. adults who say they
have ever invested in, traded or used a cryptocurrency such as bitcoin or
ether, 46% report their investments have done worse than they expected,
according to a new Pew Research Center survey.
By comparison, 15% of these Americans say their
investments have done better than they expected, 31% say they have worked out
about the same as they expected and another 8% say they are not sure. The survey, which was conducted July 5-17, 2022,
shows that the overall share of U.S. adults who have ever invested in, traded
or used a cryptocurrency (also referred to as “crypto users” in this
analysis) is unchanged
since September 2021. This lack of overall change comes despite
strong attention
to crypto in the news. How we did this The new survey also explores the reasons people have
for investing in cryptocurrencies.
Among the 16% of Americans who say they have ever
invested in, traded or used a cryptocurrency, about three-quarters say that a
major or minor reason is that they want a different way to invest (78%) or
that it is a good way to make money (75%). Some 54% say at least a minor
reason is that they think crypto is easier to get into than other ways to
invest. Smaller shares cite being more confident in cryptocurrencies than
other investments (39%) and wanting to be part of a community (33%) as at
least a minor reason for investing. Certain groups are particularly
likely to say they have used cryptocurrencies
As the Center
found in the 2021 survey, men ages 18 to 29 stand out for saying they
have ever invested in, traded or used a cryptocurrency such as bitcoin or
ether. About four-in-ten men ages 18 to 29 (42%) have used cryptocurrencies,
compared with 17% of women in that age range. Overall, men are 14 percentage points more likely
than women to say they have used cryptocurrencies. And adults under age 50
(25%) are more likely than those 50 and older (7%) to be crypto users. There
are also differences by race and ethnicity. About one-in-five Black, Hispanic
or Asian Americans say they have ever invested in, traded or used a
cryptocurrency, compared with 13% of White Americans who say the same. While relatively few Americans overall say they have
ever invested in, traded or used cryptocurrencies, the vast majority of
Americans have heard about them. Roughly nine-in-ten Americans (88%) say they
have heard at least a little about cryptocurrencies, including 26% who have
heard a lot. About half of Americans
have heard about NFTs, but few have ever bought one
In addition to asking about cryptocurrencies, the
survey explored general public awareness and use of non-fungible
tokens (NFTs), prompted by the growing attention being paid to artists, athletes and journalists who
have created and sold NFTs. About half of U.S. adults (49%) say they have heard
at least a little about non-fungible tokens, including 11% who have heard a
lot. But just 2% of Americans say they have bought an NFT. Awareness of and investment in NFTs vary by
demographic factors, particularly gender and age. Men are 22 percentage
points more likely than women to say they have heard of NFTs. And 69% of
adults ages 18 to 29 say they have heard at least a little about NFTs,
compared with 56% of those ages 30 to 49 and 36% of those 50 and older. Differences again stand out when looking at gender
and age together. For example, men under 30 are 21 points more likely than
women under 30 to say they have heard at least a little about NFTs (79% vs.
58%). Notably, though, among adults under 30, men and women are about equally
likely to say they have actually bought an NFT (5% vs. 7%). The share of adults who have heard about NFTs also
varies by race, ethnicity and income. Asian Americans, for example, are the
most likely among racial and ethnic groups studied to say they have heard at
least a little about NFTs (66%). That compares with about half of White or
Hispanic adults (49% and 48%, respectively) and 38% of Black adults.
Similarly, Americans with relatively higher incomes are most likely to have
heard about NFTs: About two-thirds (66%) have heard at least a little,
followed by roughly half of Americans in the middle income range (51%) and about
a third (36%) of those with lower incomes. Small shares of all those groups
have actually bought NFTs. (PEW) AUGUST 23, 2022 757-43-17/Polls Soaring Prices Has Four-In-Five Canadians Pinching
Pennies
Statistics Canada may have reported cooling
inflation rates in recent days, but the summer of price increases continues
to simmer. The level of month-to-month price increases was the
lowest so far
this year. However, prices have risen by 7.6 per cent since July 2021,
meaning there is much work for the Bank of Canada left to do to return the
country to its target rate of two per cent. Through it all, many Canadians are responding to
price increases with spending decreases, according to new data from the
non-profit Angus Reid Institute Fully four-in-five say they have cut spending in
recent months by either trimming their discretionary budget, delaying a major
purchase, driving less, scaling back travel and charitable donations, or
deferring saving for the future. This represents an increase from the
three-quarters (74%) who said so in February. A financial temperature check of Canadians finds
many sweltering in the heat of inflation. Half (52%) say they couldn’t manage
a sudden expense of more than $1,000. For two-in-five (38%), a surprise bonus
of $5,000 would be used to alleviate the pressure of debt. For one-in-ten, it
would immediately be put towards daily expenses. Regionally, some parts of the country seem to be
feeling more financial pain than others. Those in Saskatchewan (58%) and
Atlantic Canada (50%) are much more likely than those in other parts of the
country to use a sudden gift of $5,000 towards paying off debt. As well,
people in those provinces – and Alberta – are more likely than others
elsewhere to say they have been cutting back spending in recent months.
More Key Findings:
INDEX Part One: Cross-country
financial temperature check
Part Two: The toll of
inflation
Part Three: Canadians
believe there’s more to rising grocery bills than inflation
Part One: Cross-country
financial temperature check This month’s Statistics Canada’s inflation release
brought a slight reprieve, as the pace of inflation slowed. The consumer
price index was up 7.6 per
cent year over year in July, and prices rose just 0.1 per
cent over the preceding month. Relief at the pumps – as the
price of gas declined – played a significant role in a lower
inflation number. Still, food prices are up 10 per cent since last year,
the fastest
pace since August 1981, and the price of rent rose
faster than the month before. Even if inflation continues to slow, economists
and business leaders expect at least another interest rate hike from
the Bank of Canada of between 50 and 100 basis points in September. That
would put further pressure on indebted
Canadian households as the cost of borrowing increases across the
country. Three-quarters stress
about money, two-in-five worry about their debt To take their financial temperature, Canadians were
asked how they would use a surprise, no-strings-attached bonus of $5,000.
Half of Canadians would address immediate (10%) or long-term financial
obligations (38%). The other half would look to save the money (43%) or make
a big-ticket purchase (9%). Those in Saskatchewan and Atlantic Canada are more
likely than others across the country to use the $5,000 to alleviate the
financial pressure of debt. One-in-ten (13%) in the Maritimes and Ontario say
they would use it to pay day-to-day expenses:
Canadians with lower household income levels are
more likely to say that any cash infusion would go to essentials. Indeed,
one-quarter (23%) among those with the lowest levels of income say they would
pay for day-to-day expenses. For those with income levels higher than
$150,000, half say they would put this money into savings or investments:
The cost of borrowing has increased significantly
this year as the Bank of Canada tackles inflation. The BoC’s policy
interest rate has risen from 0.25 per cent in January to 2.5 per
cent last month. And the hikes are expected to continue
for the foreseeable future. Meanwhile, two-in-five (39%) Canadians worry that
they have too much debt; three-in-five (58%) are less concerned. Mid-career
Canadians (35- to 54-years-old) are more likely than other age groups to fret
over their debt load – half (52%) say they have too much debt (see
detailed tables). Notably, according
to Statistics Canada, this age group holds 57 per cent of the debt in
Canada, despite representing one-third of the adult population. Those in Saskatchewan (57%) are most likely to
believe they are holding too much debt as interest rates increase, double the
proportion of Quebecers (28%) who say the same:
All in all, three-quarters (76%) of Canadians say
they stress about money. Women are more likely than men to say this,
including more than four-in-five women under the age of 55:
Half could not manage
unexpected expense of more than $1,000 As inflation pressures Canadian budgets, half of the
country say they could not manage an unexpected expense of more than $1,000,
including one-in-ten (13%) who say any surprise expense would be too much. Canadians in lower income households are much more
likely to say their budget is already too stretched to accommodate any
unexpected expenses. One-third (32%) in households earning less than $25,000
annually and 16 per cent in those earning less than $50,000 say there’s no
room in their budgets for unplanned expenditures.
Older Canadians report being better positioned to
endure an unforeseen expense. Consider that three-in-five of those older than
54 say they could manage an extra $1,000 this month, compared to two-in-five
among their younger peers. Those in the 35-to-54 age group are least likely
to be able to comfortably afford extra expenses (see
detailed tables). One-in-three worry of job
loss Canadian unemployment levels continue to hover around
record lows, but this does not necessarily mean that everyone in the
workforce is comfortable. Turmoil in the tech sector has many companies laying
off portions of their staff, while on the other end of the spectrum,
shortages in health care have the industry and the government plotting how
best to staff up. One-in-three (36%) Canadian households are evidently
dealing with uncertainty when it comes to job stability. This dips to 29 per
cent in Quebec and rises closer to two-in-five in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and
Ontario:
Part Two: The toll of
inflation Three-in-five say they are
cutting discretionary spending, two-in-five driving less Most Canadians say they have had to make adjustments
to their budget in recent months as inflation increases the price of
essentials. Three-in-five (57%) say they have decreased discretionary
spending, while two-in-five (41%) are driving less. Both those figures have
increased since the Angus Reid Institute last asked Canadians this
question in
February. Then three-quarters (74%) of Canadians say they had made
spending cuts. Now fully four-in-five say the same:
Those in Alberta,
Saskatchewan, Maritimes more likely to report cutting back Nearly all (92%) in Saskatchewan report cutting back
on spending in recent months, a mark 12 points above the national average.
They are joined by more than four-in-five in Alberta (86%) and Atlantic
Canada (85%). Saskatchewanians are the most likely to report driving less
(57%), adjusting travel plans (43%) and cutting back on discretionary
spending in general (70%):
Women are more likely than men to say their
household has made budget adjustments to rein in spending. Approaching
nine-in-ten (88%) 18- to 34-year-old women have made some sort of spending
cut, as have 86 per cent of women 35- to 54-years-old. Notably, young men,
too, have adjusted their spending habits at a higher rate than their older
peers:
As most Canadians trim their budgets to make room
for ballooning costs for daily necessities, many across the country feel left
behind. A majority (56%) say they can’t keep up with the cost of living,
while two-in-five (39%) feel they are keeping pace. The sentiment of falling
behind climbing prices is significantly more common in Saskatchewan (71%)
than elsewhere in the country:
Part Three: Canadians
believe there’s more to rising grocery bills than inflation Four-in-five say grocery
stores are taking advantage of inflation to boost profits Grocery prices have been a cause of heated debate in
recent months. All three of Canada’s largest grocery conglomerates – Loblaws,
Metro, and Empire – have enjoyed increased profit margins as
inflation has ticked upward. One
investigation found that the rate of price increases at those
grocers outpaced the rate of inflation, suggesting that these companies may
be profiting in excess with inflation as a guise for price hikes.
Representatives for these companies have
denied profiting off of inflation, instead pointing to efficiency
gains and increased sales of high-margin profits, rather than price gouging,
as explaining their continued growth. Some
economists believe recent financial results, which have shown
dipping or flat profit margins at the country’s major grocery companies,
have weakened the
case for so-called “greed-flation”. For their part, Canadians are aligned across age,
income, education, and other demographics, in believing that companies are
taking advantage of inflation to increase their prices further than
necessary. Four-in-five across nearly all of these groups say this the case,
while one-in-12 believe grocers that these gains are from savvy business
maneuvering:
(Angus Reid Institute) August 22, 2022 Source: https://angusreid.org/inflation-bank-of-canada-grocery-prices/ 757-43-18/Polls For Colombians, Cannabis Tax Would Improve
Investment
The expectation of growth in the cannabis industry
in Colombia has been taking shape in recent years, given the medicinal and
cosmetic products that are being produced in the country. Today the results of the first opinion poll on the
cannabis industry were presented, where more than 2,000 Colombians from all
over the country were consulted, and which was carried out by the Colombian Observatory of the Cannabis Industry,
as an initiative of Jaime Arteaga y
Asociados, in alliance with the Centro
Nacional de Consultoría. Faced with the results delivered by the firm, it was
shown that 91% of the citizens surveyed who have used cannabis-based
medicinal or cosmetic products would recommend other people to use the same. Similarly, when asked if they have ever been to a
store that sells these products, 63% of respondents answered no, while 37%
said they had been in one of them. The results by gender showed that 29% of women have
been in one of these stores, like men, 44% also answered affirmatively. The figure for the age group, presented 43% of the
population between 18 and 34 years old, had entered these stores, unlike the
group over 54 years old, where 28% answered having been in one of these . The disaggregation by strata revealed that the high
stratum is the one that has stayed the longest in this type of establishment,
presenting a result of 47%. In terms of knowledge about someone who uses
cannabis-based medicinal or cosmetic products, 43% are aware of someone who
uses them. Similarly, 57% of those surveyed answered no, unlike the 43% who
answered yes knowing someone who makes use of these products. Likewise, this
figure is higher among people from high strata, where 67% of them say they
know someone who uses medicinal and cosmetic cannabis products. On the other
hand, 1 out of every 4 Colombians has used medicinal or cosmetic products that
contain cannabis, of which 76% of those surveyed answered that they have not,
unlike those who answered yes, who represent 26%. Likewise, the percentage of used products revealed
that 46% are part of ointments or ointments; 38% are creams, 11% medicines, 10%
oils and 9% cosmetics. Among other data presented, it was estimated that the
consumption of these products is higher in the high stratum, where 40% of
people have used these products. And although the use of cannabis can be
considered as the door to explore with other types of drugs, according to the
results of the survey it was estimated that 47% of those surveyed say they
strongly agree that the use of this herb would that people use other types of
more addictive drugs. Contrary to the result of those who claim to be in
strong disagreement, where the figure presented was 53%. In another aspect, 63% of Colombians believe that
sales taxes on cannabis products would improve social investment. This figure is higher among people from high strata,
where 72% assured that these taxes would improve investment, while 63% from
the lower stratum also assured that they strongly agree. For her part, Mónica Hoyos, deputy director of
Ecosystems for Development at Jaime Arteaga
y Asociados and leader of the Observatory
of the Cannabis Industry in Colombia, assured that the results of
the survey show that Colombians see value in the cannabis industry,
especially in the high strata. However, the leader assured that, “there is still a
long way to go in terms of the reputation of the industry, and part of this
will be to expand access to cannabis-based medicinal and cosmetic products
for consumers with fewer economic resources. ”. (CNC) August 25, 2022 AUSTRALIA
757-43-19/Polls The ‘Hidden Unemployed’ Must Not Be Ignored At The
Jobs & Skills Summit
What is the purpose of the
Jobs & Skills Summit “One of the key factors driving the
Jobs & Skills Summit is the call by many business leaders to immediately
increase immigration to address apparent ‘skills and labour shortages’. And with the ABS saying fewer than half a million
people are unemployed that’s not surprising. But even before we look closely at the numbers there
are questions. Are these shortages long-term or short-term? Are the
shortages caused by COVID infections which force people to stay home or
stimulus which drives increased demand for products, services &
employment. Are there people who could, with retraining, join
the labour force? However, the labour market is not that simple.” What are the actual
unemployment numbers? “The latest Roy Morgan unemployment
figures for July show there are 1.25 million Australians out of work and
looking for a job (8.5% of the workforce) and another 1.27 million
Australians who want to work more hours (8.6% of the workforce). This means a total of over 2.5 million Australians
(17.1% of the workforce) want to either work more hours or find a job – that
is over 1-in-6 Australians in the workforce. Remember, the ABS unemployment figures say there are
only 3.4% of the workforce unemployed (474,000). This is a difference of over 770,000 people! Why is there such a difference? The key reason is the way being unemployed is
defined.” Roy Morgan Unemployment
& Under-employment (2019-2022)
How do Roy Morgan and the
ABS define unemployment? “Roy Morgan asks a person who is
not in paid employment
if they are looking for paid work. If the answer is yes – Roy Morgan considers that
person to be unemployed. They aren’t currently working but they do want a job
and they do want to work. The ABS classifies a person as unemployed only if,
when surveyed, they have been actively looking for work in the four weeks up
to the end of the reference week and if they were available for work in the
reference week. That means anyone out of work for say three weeks is never
counted. The ABS classifies a person as employed if, when
surveyed, a person worked for one hour or more during the reference week for
pay, profit, commission or payment in kind, or even if a person worked for
one hour or more without pay in a family business or on a farm. These restrictions cut down greatly on the number of
people the ABS considers unemployed, and boosts the number of people
employed, and explains the difference between the Roy Morgan and ABS
unemployment figures.” Latest Roy Morgan
Unemployment for July 2022: https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9044-australian-unemployment-estimates-july-2022-202208090001 Latest ABS Unemployment
for July 2022: https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/employment-and-unemployment/labour-force-australia/jul-2022 ABS ‘Potential workers’
annual release shows similar figures to Roy Morgan unemployment “However, the monthly results
published by Roy Morgan and the ABS are not the full story of Australia’s
labour markets. The ABS also publishes an annual survey on
‘Potential workers’ which much more accurately captures the true level of
unemployment in Australia. In late May 2022 the ABS released the latest version
of this survey for the month of February 2022 – conveniently it was the week
after the Federal Election and was largely ignored. The ‘Potential workers’ survey showed there were 1.8
million ‘Potential workers’ in Australia and another 900,000 under-employed
workers – over 2.7 million Australians either wanting to work or wanting to
work more hours. All these figures are clearly laid out within the
release and in the chart you can see the ‘Potential workers’ who want to work
but who are not considered as part of the labour force in dark blue. The parts in light blue comprise the ABS monthly
unemployed. The remarkable aspect of this release is that the
figures are so similar to those from Roy Morgan. Without commenting on whether or not we should have
more immigration, these extra potential workers should not be forgotten in
the deliberations at the summit. What’s needed is to match them with the jobs –
retraining, relocation and community support.” Latest ABS ‘Potential
workers’ release for February 2022 (released on May 24, 2022): https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/employment-and-unemployment/potential-workers/latest-release Roy Morgan Unemployment
& Under-employment (July 2022) vs. ABS Unemployment &
Under-employment (July 2022) & ABS ‘Potential workers’ (February 2022)
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source July 2022, n=7,436
interviews. ABS monthly unemployment figures for July 2022: Unemployed (3.4%)
and under-employed (6%). ABS ‘Potential workers’ for February 2022 are those
not normally classified as unemployed by the ABS in the monthly unemployment
release. The workforce size has been adjusted to account for the inclusion of
these 'potential workers' along with the unemployment and under-employment
figures for July 2022. (Roy Morgan) August 23 2022 MULTICOUNTRY
STUDIES
757-43-20/Polls 5 Out Of 10 Europeans (49%) Rely On Public
Televisions And Radios For Information, Study Across 25 States
Main results
In this sense, the study reveals that television is
still the main channel to be informed, 75%
of European citizens declare it, the same scenario we find, in Spain, where
television is the king medium to be up to date for 76%. By age it is observed that the older the greater the
choice of television as the preferred medium to follow the news, 85% of those
over 55 years of age confirm it, a percentage that drops to 58% in the age
range of 15 to 24 years at European level. It should be noted that in Spain this trend is
repeated in the same way, with hardly any difference in the different age
groups, except in the youngest, where we find that in Spain there is more youth who choose TV to be
informed, increasing by 8 points compared to the European data (66%). Secondly, although very far away, we find online
news platforms (43%) as the chosen medium to keep up to date. In Spain this
second position is taken by radio (36%), although by very little, because it
only surpasses online news platforms by one point (35%). Social networks and
blogs are chosen by 26% of the European population, a percentage that rises
to 31% in the Spanish case, and in the last position we find the written
press, chosen only by 21% at European level and with a similar percentage in
Spain (20%). It should be noted that in
Spain although the use of social networks to follow the news is increasingly
high, it is still a channel that is mostly used for
entertainment, so 54% declare that they use them to chat with their friends
and family, 48% to watch content in photo and video and 40% to find out what
their acquaintances are doing. Traditional and public
media, those with more credibility. Public audiovisual media stand as the most reliable
way to follow the news, also in its online format. On average, 5 out of 10
Europeans (49%) rely on public televisions and radios for information, a
percentage that in Spain represents 45%. The written press also has a lot of
confidence among European citizens, placing second with 39%, although this
confidence is even greater in the Spanish case, where it is almost at the
same level as television and radio (44%). After the public media we find the private ones as
the third source of news that arouse the most confidence, especially among
the Spanish public with 36%, while at the European level it drops to
27%. Although online news platforms,
social networks and blogs are already among the sources chosen to be up to
date, we see how they do not collect much trust from citizens, so the people,
groups or friends we follow on social networks or messaging platforms are
only reliable for 13%; blogs and podcasts, similar to the European average,
for 11%; YouTube or other video platforms for 7%; and social media
influencers for 5%, the same as in Europe. . Fake news exists and the
public has it very present The Internet can be a very useful tool, but it can
also become a double-edged sword because of the amount of unverified
information circulating on the network, leading users to create information
that is not truthful. In this respect, on average, 61% of the European
population believes that they have ever been exposed to news that did not
conform to reality. In Spain, this percentage rises to 79%, 18 points above
the European figure. However, citizens are able to detect when a news
item is false or not, finding very similar data in this regard for both
Europe (64%) and Spain (66%). A headline related to our
interests and trust in the medium, the main criteria to access a news on the
internet The study has also analyzed what leads the public to
decide whether or not to read a news story online. The results clearly
reflect that the ability of citizens to recognize false information is very
subjective, since half of the people in Europe click on a news story when the
owner of the same communes with their interests. Secondly, with 37%, they
point to confidence in the medium that has published it. If we focus on Spain, we see that there is also that
bias, to consume content related to personal interests (46%), but the
criterion of trust in the environment is almost as important, with only one
point less (45%). National political
affairs, the issue that interests us most The Eurobarometer has also polled the range of
topics that most interest the population of the club of 27. Half of people in
Europe say that what they are most interested in in news are the national
politics issues of their own countries, followed by local news (47%).
European and international issues are also very interesting (46%) and issues
such as sport and the economy are of equal interest to European citizens,
with 34% in both cases. (Ipsos Spain) 24 August 2022 Source:
https://www.ipsos.com/es-es/el-76-de-la-poblacion-espanola-escoge-la-television-como-canal-principal-para-informarse 757-43-21/Polls Citizens Are Responsible For Holding MPs
Accountable; Survey Across 32 African States
Key findings §
Responsibility for holding MPs accountable: A majority (56%) of Ugandans say
voters are responsible for making sure that MPs do their jobs. This proportion
has increased by 11 percentage points since 2015. §
Knowing your MP: In 2008, more than seven out of 10 Ugandans (73%) could name
their elected representative – far above the 45% average across
Afrobarometer’s 20- country sample. § Constituency service:
About one in seven Ugandans (15%) say they contacted an MP at least once in
2021. Only 15% of citizens say MPs try their best to listen to ordinary
citizens. § Oversight: Three out of four Ugandans (75%)
say the president should be accountable to Parliament. But since 2015, the
share of citizens who say the president “often” or “always” ignores
Parliament has increased from 22% to 42%. §
Corruption among MPs: In 2005, 25% of Ugandans said “most” or “all” MPs were
corrupt. This has steadily increased to 44% in 2022. §
Determinants of MP performance ratings: Satisfaction with MP performance
varies by region and by whether citizens think MPs listen to them and are
free of corruption, rather than by MPs’ ability to conduct oversight of the
executive. Foundations of the citizen-MP relationship Popular demand for
vertical accountability Do citizens see it as their responsibility to hold
their elected representatives to account? Andreas Schedler (1999) described
vertical accountability as a two-dimensional concept encompassing
answerability (the need to inform about and explain decisions) and
enforcement (rewarding good and punishing bad behaviour). Most commonly,
vertical accountability is defined in terms of regular elections (O’Donell,
1994). Indeed, Ugandan MPs are accountable to their voters every five years
at the ballot box. But what about the time between elections? Who should be
responsible for making sure that, once elected, MPs do their jobs? Does the
responsibility still fall on voters, or do Ugandans shift this responsibility
to other individuals or institutions? Afrobarometer data collected between
2005 and 2022 reveal that the largest proportion of Ugandans see it as the
responsibility of voters (Figure 1). In fact, following a low point of 45% in
2015, the share of Ugandans who say it is the voters’ responsibility to hold
MPs accountable has increased by 11 percentage points to 56% in 2022. By
comparison, fewer Ugandans than in 2015 now say that President Museveni or
Parliament itself should hold MPs accountable, while only a small minority
(10% or less) expect political parties to hold elected representatives
accountable.
To put these over-time trends into perspective, we
can compare these data across both time and space. First we compare them to
the average (shown via the dotted purple line in Figure 1) for a group of 18
African countries that Afrobarometer has surveyed consistently since 2005.2
We see that expectations of bottom-up accountability have consistently been
higher in Uganda than across the 18 countries (even though Uganda is included
in the group average). When compared against a larger set of 32 African countries
surveyed in 2019/2021, Ugandans are more likely than most other Africans to
say that citizens are responsible for holding MPs accountable (Figure 2).3
Only in Malawi (72%) and Kenya (60%) do we see significantly higher
expectations of bottom-up accountability. In contrast, 25 countries record
lower expectations, including fewer than one in five citizens in Mauritius
(19%) and Sudan (16%).
While we cannot fully interpret Uganda’s
comparatively high level of popular demand for vertical accountability within
the confines of this policy paper, Ugandans’ increasing appetite for vertical
accountability is encouraging for the prospects of a more democratic future.
This is especially true considering that a growing proportion of citizens say
elections allow them to remove non-performing MPs (Kakumba, 2020),
notwithstanding mediocre levels of trust in the institutions that ought to
deliver free and fair elections (Krönke, 2022). Identifying MPs By establishing that a majority of
Ugandans see voters as responsible for making sure that elected
representatives do their job, we have demonstrated a basic tenet of vertical
accountability. However, citizens also need to be able to identify the
representative for their constituency to effectively monitor the MP’s performance.
Because we do not have recent data on whether Ugandans can identify their MP,
we rely on Afrobarometer Round 4 data. In 2008, almost three out of four
Ugandans (73%) correctly named their MP, far above the 20- country average
(48%). A comparison across various demographic and attitudinal dimensions
shows mostly moderate differences between groups (Figure 3). Although
respondents with post-secondary education were 22 percentage points more
likely to identify their MP than those with no formal education (79% vs.
57%), differences across gender, age, and urban-rural location were much
smaller (8 percentage points or less). Respondents’ level of material
deprivation (lived poverty), demand for democracy, and partisan
identification4 were also associated with only modest differences. In fact,
except for the wealthiest group (58%), those without any formal education
(57%), and residents of Kampala (56%), at least two-thirds of respondents in
each demographic group could correctly identify their MP. The low rate in
Kampala, Uganda’s capital city, could have two possible explanations. First,
MPs in this area represent larger constituencies than their counterparts in
other areas in the country. All else being equal, this reduces the likelihood
of citizens interacting with their MPs. Second, a substantial proportion of
residents in Kampala don’t cast their votes within the region but rather move
outside the city on voting day. This likely reduces residents’ interest in
following the politics of the constituency in Kampala, as well as their
ability to identify their MPs.
The four roles of MPs Legislators are generally
expected to take on four roles: law making, oversight of the executive,
representation (literally re-presenting constituency opinion within the legislature),
and constituency service (i.e. serving citizens in their home districts).
Most MPs focus more on certain roles than on others, meaning they might also
to varying degrees meet citizens’ expectations of how MPs should divide their
time (Mattes & Mozaffar, 2016). In 2008, Afrobarometer asked Ugandans
what they think the most important responsibility of MPs should be. A clear
majority (66%) of respondents said that MPs should focus on listening to
constituents and representing their needs in Parliament, while far fewer said
MPs should prioritise delivering jobs or development to their constituencies
(20%), making laws (11%), and overseeing the executive (2%) (Figure 4). This
provides an important point of departure for assessing MP performance. A useful
follow-up question concerns how we can measure MP performance with respect to
each role. For this policy paper, we focus primarily on MPs’ constituency
service work, but we start by exploring MP performance in terms of law making
and representation.
Evaluations of MPs and their work in the legislature
To evaluate MPs’ performance in the legislature, we rely on data from the
Parliamentary Performance Scorecard Project initiated by the Africa
Leadership Institute (2020). By tracking performance data from the plenary
and official recordings from parliamentary committees that are open to the
public, the scorecards provide Ugandans with critical information about the
extent to which MPs participate in the legislative process and engage in
representation. The most recent scorecard report assesses the performance of
legislators in the 2018-2019 period of Uganda’s 10th Parliament. For the
period under assessment, the overall evaluation of the scorecard project
suggests that Parliament’s performance was quite good in terms of its
legislative function (Africa Leadership Institute, 2020). However, there are
also meaningful differences between the country’s regions (Table 1).
According to the report, MPs from the Eastern region had the highest average
attendance rate for plenary sessions (21%) and committee sessions (49%), and
the region scored in the top category (“excellent”) for plenary work more
broadly (including attendance, participation, and debate influence, among
other aspects). In contrast, MPs from the Central region had the lowest
average attendance rate for plenary (16%), and Western region MPs the lowest
for committee attendance (39%). Both regions were rated only “fair” on
overall plenary performance
While there are multiple explanations that could
account for this variation in plenary and committee performance (as measured
through the scorecards), we suggest that this is, at least in part, related
to MPs’ competing role responsibilities and the number of constituents they
are supposed to serve and represent. As mentioned earlier, all MPs need to
fulfil their four core responsibilities – law making, oversight of the
executive, representation, and constituency service. Yet these roles are in
constant tension with each other. That is, an MP who spends more time in the
constituency inevitably has less time available to make contributions in
plenary sessions or committee meetings. Managing these competing
responsibilities becomes more difficult the more constituents an MP has. In
Uganda, there are huge differences in citizen-to-MP ratios across
constituencies. For example, according to the Uganda Bureau of Statistics
2014 report, the largest constituency (Busiro East, Wakiso district) is home
to 458,848 citizens, while the smallest (Ik County, Kaabong district) has
only 4,023 people. One consequence of this variation is that all else being
equal, an MP from a populous constituency must spend more time engaging with
constituents during and between campaigns to reach the same share of the
constituency population. This creates a double disadvantage for MPs from
populous constituencies who want to conduct legislative oversight and law
making: They must spend more time on constituency work to provide the same
level of service, and therefore, they have less time available to fulfil
their other roles that require them to be in the plenary and committees. In
part due to where new constituencies have been added over the years,
citizen-to-MP ratios vary substantially across Uganda’s regions. On average,
an MP in the Central region – the region with the largest population and the
fewest MPs – represents about 113,834 people, compared to 80,728 people in
the Western region, 77,533 people in the Eastern region, and 67,541 people in
the Northern region (Uganda Bureau of Statistics, 2014). Given these
averages, it is perhaps not surprising that representatives from Northern and
Eastern regions have also been able to dedicate more time to work that takes
place in the legislature. MPs and their constituents In addition to representing
citizens in Parliament and legislating, MPs are expected to serve their
constituents and provide oversight of the executive. In what follows, we
first focus on interactions between citizens and MPs in the constituency,
analysing how frequent citizen-MP interactions have been over the past two
decades and how responsive citizens perceive MPs to be. In the second half of
this section, we examine how citizens evaluate MPs’ ability to exercise
horizontal accountability. In other words, do MPs provide the necessary
counterweight to the country’s longstanding president, or are citizens under
the impression that Museveni regularly ignores Parliament? Constituency
service: Accessibility A basic aspect of MPs’ constituency service is
accessibility. At the very least this means that MPs are present in the
constituency and approachable by citizens. In 2008, Afrobarometer asked
citizens how much time their representative should spend in the constituency.
Threequarters of Ugandans said their MP should be in the constituency at
least once a month (56%), at least once a week (14%), or “almost all of their
time” (5%). But only one-quarter (25%) of respondents said their MP in fact
spent time in the constituency once a month or more often (Figure 5).
As Mattes and Mozaffar (2016) have shown, there is a
wide gap between ordinary Ugandans’ demand for representation and
constituency work and the priority that Ugandan MPs place on these aspects of
their job. In fact, this gap was larger in Uganda than in any of the other 17
countries they analysed. Given this mismatch of expectations between citizens
and MPs, how accessible are MPs to their citizens on a day-to-day basis?
Although there are multiple reasons why citizens can and do contact their
elected representatives (e.g. to complain about government service delivery
or to demand patronage or clientelistic goods), it is nevertheless
instructive to track how often citizens engage with their representatives.
Starting in 2002, Afrobarometer asked respondents whether they contacted an
MP in the preceding 12 months. Over the past two decades, citizen-initiated contact
with MPs has fluctuated between 13% and 19%. Given that far more Ugandan
respondents were able to identify their MP in 2008 compared to other
Africans, it is perhaps not surprising that Ugandans are also consistently
more likely to contact MPs compared to the 18-country average (Figure 6).
When compared to the larger sample of 33 countries
where this question was asked in Round 8, Uganda ranks 11th (along with
Nigeria, Kenya, Mauritius, and Niger) in citizeninitiated contact with MPs
(Figure 7). To put these numbers into perspective, we conduct a
back-of-the-envelope calculation: With an adult population of 18.66 million,
14% in Round 8 who say they contacted their MP would represent 2.61 million
people. Considering the 353 MPs who were elected through the
first-past-the-post system in 2021, a constituency-based MP would on average
be contacted by approximately 7,400 citizens per year, or about 20 per day.
Notwithstanding variation around this number based on a constituency’s
geographic size, constituent-to-MP ratio, how often MPs are in the
constituency, and other factors, these numbers suggest a high level of
citizen engagement for most MPs who were elected via their constituency. How
does citizen-MP engagement in Uganda compare to that in other African
countries? At similar rates of contact as Uganda, and following the same
calculation, an average Malawian MP would engage with 19 adults per day,
while his/her Nigerian counterpart would engage with 94 per day. These rough
estimates suggest that MPs in Uganda (as well as several other countries) are
likely to spend a significant amount of their time meeting with citizens, but
it also highlights that any Ugandan’s message to his or her MP competes with
many other interests.
Whether citizens contact their MP depends not only
on the elected representative, but also on whether citizens are engaged in
politics, their material resources, their social capital, and their demographic
characteristics (Brady, Verba, & Schlozman, 1995; Bratton, Mattes, &
Gyimah-Boadi, 2005; Lockwood & Krönke, 2020). While we see no clear
pattern of differences between urban and rural residents, between wealthy and
poor respondents, and between those who are more vs. less committed to
democracy, we find substantial variation along other dimensions. For example,
older respondents, men, and Ugandans who identify with a political party are
more likely to contact an MP compared to their counterparts. Across regions,
residents of the Northern region (23%) are more likely to contact their MPs
than their counterparts in other regions (13%-15%) (Figure 8). As mentioned
before, the citizen-to-MP ratio is an important factor to consider. The
Northern region has the smallest average citizen-to-MP ratio. This is likely
to allow MPs in this region to dedicate more time to both constituency and
legislative duties, resulting in increased citizen-MP contacts.
Constituency service: Do elected representatives
listen to their constituents? Do elected leaders listen to their
constituents’ views? In Figure 4, we saw that most Ugandans (66%) see
listening to constituents and representing their needs as the most important
part of an MP’s job. Thus, in addition to accessibility, we analyse how
citizens experience interactions with elected representatives in their
constituencies. Since 2002, Ugandans’ evaluations of how often MPs try their
best to listen to citizens have fluctuated but have never exceeded 22% of
respondents who say “often” or “always” (Figure 9). Moreover, while Ugandans
have consistently shown significant initiative in contacting MPs over the
past two decades, Ugandan MPs have regularly been perceived as moderately
responsive when compared to their peers in other African countries (i.e.
close to the 18-country average). Nevertheless, some countries that scored
equally high in terms of citizen-initiated contact, such as Malawi and
Nigeria, perform significantly worse on listening. Only 9% of Malawians and
Nigerians said their MPs often/always try their best to listen to citizens
(Figure 10)
Respondents’ views on MP responsiveness vary
substantially by region, age, education, and partisanship, but not by gender,
economic status, or demand for democracy (Figure 11). Younger citizens are
less likely than their elders to perceive MPs as good listeners, ranging from
14% of 18- to 29-year-olds to 19% of those aged 50 years and older. Perceived
responsiveness is higher among respondents with a post-secondary education
(18%) than among those with no formal schooling (11%). The biggest
difference, however, is between respondents who live in the sparsely
populated Western (21%) and Northern (20%) regions and those who reside in
the more densely populated Central (4%) region. Once again, this finding is
in line with the argument that the citizen-to-MP ratio shapes how citizens
perceive their engagement with elected representatives.
Oversight of the executive O’Donell (1994)
popularised a useful distinction between vertical accountability (e.g.
between citizens and MPs, as described above) and horizontal accountability.
Horizontal accountability describes restraints imposed by one state
institution on another. Although oversight of the executive is one of four
core functions of any legislature, and a key responsibility of legislators,
Mattes and Mozaffar (2016) found that across 17 African countries, only 10%
of surveyed MPs – and only 6% of surveyed citizens – said that overseeing the
president and his/her government is the most important part of an MP’s job.
In Afrobarometer’s 2008 survey in Uganda, this share was even lower: Only 2%
of respondents said that monitoring President Museveni and his government
should be the top priority of an MP. Even though Ugandans did not see this as
the most important task at the time, they still expect the president to
answer to Parliament. Consistently since 2008, a majority of citizens – 75%
in 2022 – have agreed that “Parliament should ensure that the president
explains to it on a regular basis how his government spends taxpayers’ money”
(Figure 12). From a high of 78% in 2012, support for this position declined
by 10 percentage points before rebounding between 2019 and 2022. It is worth
noting that Ugandans’ expectation that MPs monitor the president has spiked
following controversial elections in 2011 and 2021. Across 18 countries
surveyed consistently since 2008, support for oversight of the executive has
increased from 60% to a clear two-thirds majority (68%) in 2019/2021.
Next we look at how citizens view checks and
balances in practice. In a country like Uganda, ruled by a long-serving
president with extensive political powers, do citizens view the legislature
as an effective counterweight to the president’s actions? This question is
particularly important given that the legislature has long been dominated by
the NRM (Table 2)
Since 2012, Afrobarometer has asked respondents: In
your opinion, how often, in this country, does the president ignore
Parliament and just do what he wants? Although this question only indirectly
asks about MP performance as it relates to oversight of the executive, it
provides some useful insights into how citizens assess MPs. Over the past
decade, Ugandans’ responses have changed significantly (Figure 15). In both
2012 and 2022, more than 40% of respondents said that the president “often”
or “always” ignores Parliament. In the intervening years, the share dropped
as low as 22% in 2015, signaling a higher level of compliance by the
president. While it is difficult to say what exactly accounts for these fluctuations,
some critics have highlighted the legislature’s weakness as a key reason for
the president’s disregard of Parliament. One way in which the president
ignores the legislature is by first discussing important decisions in the
ruling party caucus, which the president chairs. Given the NRM caucus’
numerical strength in Parliament, the legislature as a whole is then unable
to exercise significant checks and balances vis-à-vis the president.5 Where
the legislature has tried to rein in the president, these efforts have been
met with determined opposition from a powerful executive. According to Mwenda
and Tangri (2005), MPs in Uganda are also prone to executive manipulation and
patronage, limiting their ability to hold the president accountable for his actions.
The passage of the presidential term-limit law in 2005 and the age-limit
statute in 2017, both pieces of legislation that would have prevented
President Museveni from running in the subsequent election, illustrate this
imbalance.
The perception that the president “often” or
“always” ignores Parliament is stronger among residents of Kampala (64%) and
the Central region (58%), urbanities (50%), men (45%), and less educated
citizens (45%-49%) compared to their counterparts. Unsurprisingly, opposition
supporters (67%) are more than twice as likely to say the president ignores
Parliament as are ruling party supporters (30%). Younger citizens (42%-43%)
are also more likely than their elders (38%) to view the president as
disregarding Parliament (Figure 16)
Corruption and elected representatives Even though
elected representatives are expected to promote good governance, uphold the
rule of law, and hold other public officials to account, MPs are often
accused of themselves being corrupt. Across 34 African countries surveyed in
2019/2021, 37% of respondents said “most” or “all” MPs are corrupt, second
only to the police (47%) (Keulder, 2021). In Uganda, corruption scandals
involving MPs may contribute to the widespread perception (by 73% of Ugandans
in 2019) that the government is doing a poor job of fighting corruption
(Kakumba, 2021). In 2004, for example, NRM MPs were allegedly offered 5
million Ugandan shillings each (US $1,419) to support amending the
Constitution to remove presidential term limits; one former NRM MP later
publicly apologised for accepting the bribe (Collord, 2017; Gyezaho, 2004;
Observer, 2012). Similarly, in 2017, during the contentious debate about
whether to abolish the constitutional age limit for presidential candidates
to allow Museveni to stand for another term, each MP received 29 million
Ugandan shillings ($8,000). Parliament described the money as support for MP
consultations with their constituents on the proposed age-limit bill, but
some opposition MPs saw the money as a bribe and a waste of taxpayers' money,
and returned it (Mulondo, 2017). Despite initial resistance among both NRM
and opposition party MPs, the proposal to eliminate the presidential age
limit was eventually passed. It was alleged that all 317 MPs, mostly from the
NRM, who supported the constitutional change were rewarded with millions of
dollars through a behind-the-scenes deal (Kaaya, 2019). Although MPs are not
perceived as the most corrupt officials in Uganda – police, tax officials,
civil servants, and judges/magistrates are more widely seen as corrupt –
their reputation has suffered significantly over the past two decades.
Between 2005 and 2022, the share of Afrobarometer respondents who said that
“most” or “all” Ugandan MPs are corrupt nearly doubled (from 25% in 2005 to
44% in 2022) (Figure 17). Unfortunately, Uganda is no outlier in this regard:
The 18-country average increased from 27% to 36% between 2005 and 2019/2021
(Figure 18)
Compared to their peers in 32 other countries,
Ugandan MPs received above-average performance evaluations in the 2019/2021
survey round (44% vs. 39% average) (Figure 21).
What drives performance approval? So far, the survey
data have revealed that while a sizable share of Ugandans contact their
elected representatives to share their views with them, MPs are frequently
perceived as unwilling to listen to citizen concerns. At the same time, more
and more citizens say that parliamentarians participate in corruption and are
unable to hold the president accountable. Having looked at each of these
aspects individually and over time, and compared Uganda with other countries
on the continent, we now turn to the question of how important each of these
aspects is for citizens’ overall evaluations of their elected
representatives. In other words, what drives citizens’ performance
evaluations of their elected representatives? To answer this question, we
combine citizen evaluations of MPs with several demographic and behavioural
control variables. We construct a regression model that will allow us to
understand which factors are related to our dependant variable – overall
performance evaluation of MPs – and to explore the strength of these
relationships. We use the most recent available survey data from 2022.
Results The results of the ordinary least squares (OLS) regression analysis
are reported in two models. Model 1 includes only the standard variables that
we have used throughout the paper (as in Figure 22).6 Model 2 adds roles that
we analysed (constituency work and oversight), as well as two additional
control variables – the frequency with which citizens discuss politics, and
citizens’ news consumption. These two variables help to control for citizens’
level of political interest, as those who consume and discuss information
about politics might have systematically different views than those who do
not regularly engage with politics via the media or debate.7 For ease of
interpretation, each model includes the standardised beta coefficients, which
allow for a comparison of the relative weight of the independent variables
within each model. The results in Model 1 (Table 3) confirm the significance
of regional variation. Compared to the Northern Region with its low
citizen-to-MP ratio, citizens in all other regions are less satisfied with
their MPs’ performance. The difference is bigger for Kampala and the Central
Region than for Western and Eastern regions. Once we account for these
differences, the other variables in this model are not statistically
significant and do not add explanatory power. The Model 2 results reveal four
important additional insights. First, given citizens’ clear preference in
2008 that MPs should prioritise constituency work and representation (Figure
4), it is not surprising that their evaluations of their MP’s availability in
the constituency also influence their overall satisfaction with elected
representatives. Citizens who contacted their MP in the 12 months before the
survey at least once were significantly more satisfied with MP performance.
Although being available for citizen contact is a meaningful predictor of
overall performance, whether citizens think that MPs try their best to listen
to them has a much larger effect on MP performance evaluation. To gauge the
difference, we can compare the standardised beta coefficient for the two
variables. For Contact MP, the coefficient is .096. In contrast, for the MP
listen variable, the coefficient is twice as high: .197. This suggests that
how MPs engage with their constituents matters most. Furthermore, if one
considers that citizens are likely to share their perceptions of how they
view their MP with others (e.g. 18% of Ugandans frequently discuss politics,
and a further 54% do so occasionally), the type of MP-citizen engagement
becomes even more important
Our analysis also contextualises how Ugandans view
their MPs by conducting over-time and cross-country comparisons. These
comparisons show that while Ugandan citizens are often more knowledgeable
about and more willing to engage with their elected representatives than many
other Africans, they are often no more optimistic about how MPs perform their
roles than the continental average. Our findings suggest that any attempt to
improve the relationship between citizens and MPs requires changes on at least
two levels. On an institutional level, attempts to create new constituencies
and redraw existing boundaries should, to a significant extent, be based on
the population size of an area in order to even out citizen-to-MP ratios.
This is in line with the Constitutional Court’s recent ruling that the
creation of new constituencies was unconstitutional because they were not
based on 2004 and 2014 census data. Notwithstanding other considerations
(e.g. geographic size, competitiveness, etc.), this is likely to help level
the playing field for MPs in terms of their responsibilities in the
constituency and the amount of time they can allocate to their oversight, law
making, and representation roles. We recognise that this is no easy task
given the current political landscape and the dominant presence of the NRM.
At the individual MP level, the survey results suggest that elected
representatives would do well to focus on two areas – improving constituency
work and decreasing corruption. Too many citizens do not feel heard by their
MPs, even though many make the effort to contact their representatives. And
the growing share of Ugandans who view MPs as corrupt severely undermines the
legitimacy of legislators more broadly. The high (and rising) turnover rate
in Parliament suggests that MPs ignore these lessons at their peril (Afrobarometer) 25 August 2022 Source:
https://www.afrobarometer.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/PP81-Ugandan-MPs-hold-key-to-how-citizens-perceive-them-Afrobarometer-policy-paper-23aug22.pdf |
