Gilani’s Gallopedia© Gallopedia From Gilani Research Foundation January 2024, Issue # 826-828* Compiled on a weekly basis since January 2007
Gilani’s Gallopedia is a weekly Digest of Opinions in a globalized world
This issue scores 62 out of 100 on Gilani-Gallopedia's Globality Index, showing coverage of world population, and 74 out of 100 on the world income (prosperity) Index. Click for Details
Contact Details: Natasha Amir Research Executive, Gallup Pakistan Email: natasha@galluppakistan.com This WEEKLY REPORT consists of 23 national & multi-country surveys; 10 polling organizations have been represented. Asia And MENA: Pakistan (Investments, Regional Conflicts, Perceptions on Performance) – 03 national polls Africa: South Africa (Well-Being), Kenya (Governance), Nigeria (Poverty) – 03 national polls Euro Americas: UK (Investments, Health), USA (Health, Employment Issues, Governance, Education, Religion, Ethnicity, Employment Issues), Canada (Religion, Consumer Confidence), Australia ( Consumer Confidence, Inflation) – 13 national polls	Multi-Country Studies: Arabbarometer – 12 Countries (Environment) YouGov UK – 07 Countries (Palestine/Israel Conflict) Ipsos Global – 33 Countries (Well-Being) PEW – 42 Countries (Consumer Confidence) Topic of the Week: Israel-Palestine: Fundamental Attitudes To The Conflict Among Western Europeans, A 7 Nation Study Gilani-Gallopedia Globality Index
ASIA AND MENA Regions
826-828-01 Public Opinion Is Split Regarding PIA Privatization, As 35% Of Pakistanis Agree That PIA Should Be Privatized, While The Same Percentage Is Mirrored (35%) For Those Who Disagree (Click for Details) (Pakistan) According to a survey conducted by Gallup & Gilani Pakistan, public opinion is split regarding PIA privatization, 35% of Pakistanis agree that PIA should be privatized, while the same percentage is mirrored (35%) for those who disagree. A nationally representative sample of adult men and women from across the country was asked the question, “To what extent do you agree or disagree with the statement, in my opinion, PIA should be privatized?” In response, 30% said ‘Completely agree’, 5% said ‘Agree to some extent’, 6% said ‘Neither agree nor disagree’, 6% said “Disagree to some extent”, 29% said ‘Completely disagree’ and 24% said that they did not know or gave no response. (Gallup Pakistan) 20 December 2023 3.8 Economy » Investments (Top)
826-828-02 47% Pakistanis Believe That India Will Use Nuclear Weapons In The Case Of War Between India And Pakistan (Click for Details) (Pakistan) According to a survey conducted by Gallup & Gilani Pakistan, 47% Pakistanis believe that India will use nuclear weapons in the case of war between India and Pakistan, whereas 25% believe that it will not. A nationally representative sample of adult men and women from across the country was asked the question, “Suppose there is a war between India and Pakistan. Do you think India will use nuclear weapons or not?” In response, 47% said ‘India will use nuclear weapons’, 25% said ‘India will not use nuclear weapons’, and 28% said that they did not know or gave no response. (Gallup Pakistan) 27 December 2023 2.5 Foreign Affairs & Security » Regional Conflicts (Top)
826-828-03 In Q3 2023, 21% More Businesses Than In The Previous Quarter Think That Their Business Will Be Better Off In The Future (Click for Details) (Pakistan) According to a survey conducted by Gallup & Gilani Pakistan, this quarter, 21% more businesses than in the previous quarter think that their businesses will be better off in the future; 61% in Q3 2023 said expectations for the future are positive, while 38% expect things to get worse. The Net Future Business Confidence score has increased by 42%. The complete report for the Business Confidence Survey Q3 2023 can be accessed here. (Gallup Pakistan) 05 January 2024 3.1 Economy » Perceptions on Performance (Top)
AFRICA Regions
826-828-04 South Africans Dissatisfied With Government Performance On Child Well-Being (Click for Details) (South Africa) One-third of South Africa’s 60 million people are under age 18. Reflecting the country’s legacy of racial, spatial, and social inequalities, almost two-thirds (62%) of these children live in low-income households, with high levels of exposure to poverty, hunger, and health and educational disadvantages. Many also face the threat of violence and abuse. UNICEF reports that from April to June 2022, 243 children in South Africa were killed while 1,670 suffered grievous bodily harm. Studies show that one-fourth of South African children experience physical, sexual, or emotional abuse or neglect. (Afrobarometer) 18 December 2023 3.1 Economy » Well-Being (Top)
826-828-05 For The First Time In A Decade, Kenyans See Management Of The Economy As Their Most Important Problem (Click for Details) (Kenya) Over the past decade, Kenya’s government has made notable progress toward achieving economic development as set out in its Vision 2030 and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Statistics from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (2022) indicate that the national economy grew at an average rate of 4.3% between 2017 and 2021 (see Table A.1 in the Appendix). In addition, in line with its 2010 Constitution, Kenya has been implementing devolution, whose main intention is to bring services and resources closer to citizens and to improve their livelihoods. (Afrobarometer) 26 December 2023 1.3 Domestic Politics » Governance (Top)
826-828-06 Economic Hardship And Hunger Top Reasons Nigerians Are Dissatisfied With Year 2023 (Click for Details) (Nigeria) A new public opinion poll has revealed that most Nigerians (66 percent) are dissatisfied with the year 2023. Geo-political zones analysis reveals the North East region (76 percent) has the highest number of Nigerians who made this assertion. According to the poll, Nigerians highlighted four major areas that influenced their dissatisfaction with the year 2023 and this includes hunger and economic hardship, increased inflation, things not working well, and a poor economy. (NOI Polls) 30 December 2023 3.5 Economy » Poverty (Top)
EURO-AMERICA Regions
● EUROPE
826-828-07 A Majority Of Britons (57%) Said They Supported Single Market Membership (Click for Details) (UK) Recent YouGov polling has shown significantly different levels of support for Single Market membership depending on whether the question mentions freedom of movement. In a November poll, a majority of Britons (57%) said they supported Single Market membership “if it meant that EU citizens would have the right to live and work in the UK and UK citizens would have the right to live and work elsewhere in the EU”. By contrast, in a poll this month only 42% said they supported membership when asked in isolation, with a corresponding increase in “don’t know” responses from 21% to 36%. (YouGov UK) 04 January 2024 3.8 Economy » Investments (Top)
826-828-08 Britons Increasingly Worried About The State Of The NHS In The Post-Pandemic Period (Click for Details) (UK) With a general election likely this year, both the Conservatives and Labour will be looking to set out their pitches to the public. With ‘health’ currently sitting second on the list of issues that are most important to Britons (at 45%, including 56% of 2019 Labour voters and 41% of 2019 Tory voters), Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer will both be hoping to promote their credentials for looking after the NHS. The prime minister is going to have a hard time defending the government’s record. Since our website trackers started in 2019, the government has been seen to be handling the National Health Service pretty poorly. (YouGov UK) 05 January 2024 4.11 Society » Health (Top)
● NORTH AMERICA
826-828-09 New Covid Shot Uptake Lagging Behind Annual Flu Shot Rates (Click for Details) (USA) Less than one-third of Americans, 29%, have gotten the new COVID-19 vaccine that was released this fall. In contrast, 47% of U.S. adults say they have gotten the annual flu shot this year. Another 20% of U.S. adults indicate they plan to get the new COVID-19 shot, which could bring the level of current vaccination against COVID-19 to close to half of Americans, but that still falls below the combined 63% who have gotten or plan to get the flu shot. (Gallup) 20 December 2023 4.11 Society » Health (Top)
826-828-10 No Top U.S. Government Official Earns Majority Job Approval (Click for Details) (USA) As Congress and the Supreme Court return from holiday break, none of the leading elected or appointed figures of the U.S. federal government receives majority approval from Americans. Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts fares best, with 48% approving of his job performance, while House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries is a close second, at 46%. On the other hand, Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell has no competition for the distinction of being the least well-regarded, garnering a 27% job approval rating. The next lowest is President Joe Biden at 39%. (Gallup) 04 January 2024 3.3 Economy » Employment Issues (Top)
826-828-11 Record Low In U.S. Satisfied With Way Democracy Is Working (Click for Details) (USA) Gallup has asked Americans about their satisfaction with U.S. democracy nine times since 1984. The high point came in the first reading, when 61% of Americans were satisfied with the way democracy was working. It was nearly as high, at 60%, in 1991. A new low of 28% of U.S. adults are satisfied with the way democracy is working in the country. The current figure is down from the prior low -- 35% measured shortly after the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol by rioters trying to prevent Congress from certifying Joe Biden’s victory in the 2020 presidential election. (Gallup) 05 January 2024 1.3 Domestic Politics » Governance (Top)
826-828-12 Fewer Young Men Are In College, Especially At 4-Year Schools (Click for Details) (USA) College enrollment among young Americans has been declining gradually over the past decade. In 2022, the total number of 18- to 24-year-olds enrolled in college was down by approximately 1.2 million from its peak in 2011. Most of the decline is due to fewer young men pursuing college. About 1 million fewer young men are in college but only 0.2 million fewer young women. As a result, men make up 44% of young college students today, down from 47% in 2011, according to newly released U.S. Census Bureau data. (PEW) 18 December 2023 4.10 Society » Education (Top)
826-828-13 A Majority Of Americans Have A Friend Of A Different Religion (Click for Details) (USA) It’s common for Americans to have friends of a different religion than their own. Overall, about four-in-ten U.S. adults (37%) say that all or most of their friends have the same religion they do. But about six-in-ten (61%) report having at least some friends whose religion differs from their own, according to a December 2022 Pew Research Center survey. That includes 43% who say only some of their friends have the same religion they do and another 18% who say hardly any or none of their friends do. (PEW) 19 December 2023 4.1 Society » Religion (Top)
826-828-14 Black Americans Are More Likely Than Others To Say They See Problematic News Coverage Of Black People (Click for Details) (USA) Black Americans see several problems with how the news media covers Black people, according to a 2023 Pew Research Center survey on Black Americans’ experiences with news. For example, about four-in-ten Black Americans (39%) say they extremely or fairly often see or hear news coverage about Black people that is racist or racially insensitive. A similar share (41%) say they sometimes see this kind of coverage. Among White Americans, 21% report seeing this kind of coverage extremely or fairly often, while an additional 30% see it sometimes. (PEW) 22 December 2023 4.3 Society » Ethnicity (Top)
826-828-15 2023 Saw Some Of The Biggest, Hardest-Fought Labor Disputes In Recent Decades (Click for Details) (USA) The nearly four-month actors’ strike against major Hollywood production studios in 2023 was the second-largest labor dispute in the United States in at least three decades, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of federal data through Nov. 30. Beyond the SAG-AFTRA strike, 2023 was the most active year overall for major labor disputes in more than two decades, according to our analysis of BLS data on major work stoppages. The BLS defines major stoppages as those involving 1,000 or more workers and lasting at least one full shift during the Monday-Friday work week. (PEW) 04 January 2024 3.3 Economy » Employment Issues (Top)
826-828-16 In Canada, Vast Majority Agree Both Anti-Semitism & Anti-Muslim Views Are Problems; Less Consensus Over Severity (Click for Details) (Canada) New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds broad agreement in this country that both anti-Semitism and anti-Muslim discrimination are problems domestically. Indeed, three-quarters see both as significantly problematic, while just 11 per cent of Canadians feel that each is “not really a problem”. However, there are varying perceptions of the severity of the problem both anti-Semitism and anti-Muslim attitudes pose. Canadians older than 54 are much more likely to view anti-Semitism as a major problem (34%) than those younger than 35 (22%). (Angus Reid Institute) 20 December 2023 4.1 Society » Religion (Top)
826-828-17 Two-In-Five Canadians Say They Had A Good Year Overall, While One-Quarter Say It Was More Negative Than Positive (Click for Details) (Canada) As Canadians load their plates with post-Christmas leftovers and reflect on a year almost over, new data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds 2023 receiving mixed reviews. Considering factors such as their health, happiness and financial situation two-in-five Canadians say the year was more good than bad for them, with one-third saying it was average, and one-quarter more negative than positive about the last 12 months. While the majority say they’re satisfied with this aspect of life, fully two-in-five say they are not. More than half of those with household incomes lower than $50,000 join the latter group, who hope that 2024 will bring more prosperity. (Angus Reid Institute) 27 December 2023 3.2 Economy » Consumer Confidence (Top)
● AUSTRALIA
826-828-18 ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Up 1pt To 81.8 To End 2023 At Its Highest Since Early February 2023 (Click for Details) (Australia) ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increased 1pt to 81.8 this week, a second straight weekly increase to end the year at its highest since early February 2023. However, despite the increase, Consumer Confidence has now spent a record 46 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence has ended 2023 only 0.7pts below the same week a year ago, December 12-18, 2022 (82.5) and nearly 4 points above the 2023 weekly average of 78.0. The 2023 weekly average of 78.0 is a record low for the index, below the previous record low of 82.6 in 1990 over 30 years ago. (Roy Morgan) 19 December 2023 3.2 Economy » Consumer Confidence (Top)
826-828-19 Inflation Expectations In Mid-December Are At 5.3% – Slightly Down From The Month Of November (5.4%) (Click for Details) (Australia) The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan weekly Inflation Expectations are at 5.3% for the week of December 11-17, 2023 – in line with the four-week average of 5.3% and 0.1% points lower than the month of November. A look at the monthly Inflation Expectations for November 2023 shows the measure at 5.4% for the month, an increase of 0.1% points on October 2023 (5.3%). In the month of November 2023 Australians expected inflation of 5.4% annually over the next two years. However, since November ended, Inflation Expectations have dropped slightly in the early weeks of December. (Roy Morgan) 19 December 2023 3.4 Economy » Inflation (Top)
● MULTICOUNTRY STUDIES
826-828-20 A Gap Continues Between Climate Efforts And People’s Concerns For The Environment, A Study Across 12 MENA Countries (Click for Details) Overshadowed by the war in Gaza, the 2023 UN Climate Change Conference (COP28) concluded its final session on December 12, 2023 in Dubai to mixed responses. On the one hand, COP28 reached some important achievements, including a deal calling for transitioning away from fossil fuels and a loss and damage fund. On the other hand, some argue that such celebrated achievements fell short of what is actually needed. While the COP28 summit made important progress, as outlined in the Global Stocktake, what has been accomplished so far still lags behind the concerns and demands of people across the region. (Arabbarometer) 19 December 2023 4.14 Society » Environment (Top)
826-828-21 Israel-Palestine: Fundamental Attitudes To The Conflict Among Western Europeans, A 7 Nation Study (Click for Details) With the renewed fighting in Israel and Palestine now in its third month, a new YouGov Eurotrack survey conducted in seven Western European nations – Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Denmark and Sweden – explores fundamental attitudes to the conflict, including whether Europeans can understand the mindsets of its participants, whether they think each side’s attacks were justified, and how they think the conflict should be resolved in the short and long term. The most pro-Israeli country is Germany, where 29% say they sympathise more with them rather than the Palestinians (12%). Spain proves to be the most pro-Palestinian country, with 27% sympathising with that side more compared to 19% for Israel. (YouGov UK) 20 December 2023 2.3 Foreign Affairs & Security » Palestine/ Israel Conflict (Top)
826-828-22 Data Dive: 2023 In Review, A Survey In 33 Countries (Click for Details) Living through 2023 felt like riding a rollercoaster. There were some exhilarating highs over the past year with the World Health Organization finally(!) declaring an end to COVID-19 as a global health emergency and red-hot prices cooling slightly in several countries. And there were some really sad lows, namely the start of the Israel-Hamas war and the continuation of the invasion of Ukraine. 2023 was also filled with record-breaking heat and fear-inducing reports about the impact artificial intelligence (AI) might have on all our lives in the years ahead. (Ipsos Global) 20 December 2023 3.1 Economy » Well-Being (Top)
826-828-23 Gallup International Association “End Of Year” Global Polling Tradition, A Survey Conducted In 42 Countries (Click for Details) The End of Year Survey by Gallup International Association was conducted in 42 countries, including Pakistan, with a sample of 40,428. More people optimistic (41%) than pessimistic (36%) about Pakistan’s future. Compared to last year, hope for the future has decreased by 19%. Compared to the regional countries participating in the survey, including India. Afghanistan and Iran, Pakistan comes second in terms of optimism for the upcoming year. Hopes for 2024 for Pakistan: 41% hopeful 2024 will be a good year When Pakistani respondents were asked “As far as you are concerned, do you think that 2024 will be better, worse or the same as 2023?”, 41% of them were hopeful that 2024 would be a better year than 2023, while only 36% thought it would be worse. According to 14% of them, 2024 would be the same at 2023. (PEW) 01 January 2024 3.2 Economy » Consumer Confidence (Top)
TOPIC OF THE WEEK Israel-Palestine: Fundamental Attitudes To The Conflict Among Western Europeans, A 7 Nation Study ►This page is devoted to opinions of countries whose polling activity is generally not known very widely or where a recent topical issue requires special attention.
Israel-Palestine: Fundamental Attitudes To The Conflict Among Western Europeans, A 7 Nation Study Do Europeans feel they understand each sides’ motivations, and do they see their actions as justified? With the renewed fighting in Israel and Palestine now in its third month, a new YouGov Eurotrack survey conducted in seven Western European nations – Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Denmark and Sweden – explores fundamental attitudes to the conflict, including whether Europeans can understand the mindsets of its participants, whether they think each side’s attacks were justified, and how they think the conflict should be resolved in the short and long term. The survey was conducted in mid-November, prior to the temporary ceasefire, except in Germany, where fieldwork took place in early December. Where do sympathies lie? In no country does any side get greater than three in ten people saying they are more sympathetic to that faction’s plight. The most pro-Israeli country is Germany, where 29% say they sympathise more with them rather than the Palestinians (12%). Nevertheless, this represents a notable nine point drop for Israel since October – expressing sympathy primarily for Israel has dipped across the countries surveyed, although this is unsurprising as the immediate aftermath of the Hamas attacks was always likely to be the high watermark. Spain proves to be the most pro-Palestinian country, with 27% sympathising with that side more compared to 19% for Israel. Between 24-31% of people in each country say they sympathise with both sides equally, and a further 27-37% say they are unsure (many of those answering “don’t know” to this and subsequent questions will be largely unfamiliar or uninterested in the geopolitical goings-on in the region, while others will be genuinely torn on what is a highly complex and contentious issue). Do Western Europeans think they understand the attitudes of Israelis and Palestinians towards the conflict? In Britain, France, Denmark and Sweden the public tend to say they can understand the motivations of each side, even if they don’t agree with them – and to about the same extent for each side. In Germany, however, the public are substantially more likely to think they understand the Israeli mindset than the Palestinian one. While Germans say they understand Israeli attitudes by 49% to 30%, when it comes to Palestinian attitudes they say they cannot understand them by 45% to 33%. To a lesser extent, the opposite is true in Spain. While Spaniards say they can understand the Palestinian mindset by 46% to 30%, they are divided in whether or not they feel they get where Israelis are coming from, at 39% to 39%. Italians are somewhat divided for both sides of the conflict, being split 34% to 32% on the Palestinian attitudes and by 36% to 29% for Israeli views. Do Western Europeans think the actions by Hamas and Israel are justified? Few in each country surveyed feel the Hamas attacks on Israel were justified, ranging from 4% in Britain to 11% in France. Between 64% and 80% say the October attacks were not justified, with 17% to 26% unsure. By contrast, more people see Israel’s attacks on Gaza in response as justified (18-35%) – although the tendency is to still see them as unjustified, with the Spanish (59%) and Italians (56%) most likely to say so. The French are an outlier here, being closely divided, with 37% saying Israel’s attacks are justified compared to 34% who disagree. Attitudes on ending the conflict, short- and long-term While Israel has said it intends to keep fighting until Hamas is destroyed, when posed the choice between continued military action and a ceasefire, most Western Europeans (55-73%) said they thought Israel should stop and call a ceasefire. (As noted above, fieldwork in most countries was conducted prior to the ceasefire in late November, although it is unlikely that desire for a ceasefire has diminished in the intervening period). At that time, between 8% and 24% thought that Israel should continue to fight. While many may find Hamas unpalatable, most do believe that Israel should be willing to enter into peace negotiations with Israel (58-73%). Between 12-23% think Israel should refuse to do so. More still in each country say that Hamas should likewise be prepared to enter into negotiations with Israel (66-83%), with 4-11% disagreeing. In the long term, when it comes to resolving the decades-long conflict, a ‘two state solution’ is the only one which garners majority support in Western Europe. Between 60% and 70% in each country give this approach their backing. An alternative ‘one state solution’ – a single nation that would be home to both Jews and Palestinians – receives far less support, at 20-30%. Dramatic maximalist positions which would see one side or the other expelled from the region receive little support in any country, at 5-13%. The most likely outcome for the time being – the status quo – is satisfactory to very few, with only 8-14% saying they would support things remaining as they are. Regardless, there is limited expectation that a permanent peace deal is realistically possible in the near future. Only between 14% and 31% in each country think it is plausible that the wider conflict can be brought to an end in the next decade – 40% to 62% see it as an impossibility. Human shields and collateral damage Charges have been levelled at both sides that civilians in the conflict zone are being put in harm’s way. Hamas has frequently been accused of using civilians as human shields for military targets, while Israel has likewise been criticised for apparently failing to minimize civilian casualties with its air strikes. Most people in every country surveyed say they believe Hamas uses civilians as human shields (59-69%). Just 9-13% do not believe Hamas employs such tactics. There is more division on whether Israel attempts to show restraint when it comes to its strikes in Gaza. While in France people are more likely to think Israel tries to minimize civilian casualties (by 40% to 32%), Germans are divided, and in the other countries surveyed the general expectation is that they do not. Spaniards are particularly likely to think Israel is not trying to limit collateral damage to civilians, at 55%. (YouGov UK) 20 December 2023 Source: https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/48218-israel-palestine-fundamental-attitudes-to-the-conflict-among-western-europeans (Top)
GILANI-GALLOPEDIA GLOBALITY INDEX: ► The purpose of this index is to treat the Global Coverage by each issue of Gallopedia in terms of Population, National Income and estimated Power measured by G20 Membership.
● GILANI-GALLOPEDIA GLOBALITY INDEX (Top)
Disclaimer: Gilani’s Gallopedia is a not-for-profit activity and every effort has been made to give attribution to respective polling organizations. All material presented here is available elsewhere as public information. Readers may please visit the original source for further details. Gilani Research foundation does not bear any responsibility for accuracy of data or the methods and does not claim any proprietary rights benefits or responsibilities thereof. *Archives: Gilani’s Gallopedia has been compiled on a weekly basis since January 2007. Previous material is available upon request. Please contact natasha@galluppakistan.com