BUSINESS & POLITICS IN THE WORLD

 

GLOBAL OPINION REPORT NO. 682

 

 

Week: March 15 –March 21, 2021

 

Presentation: March 26, 2021

 

 

Contents

 

682-43-23/Commentary: The Pandemic Stalls Growth In The Global Middle Class, Pushes Poverty Up Sharply. 2

SUMMARY OF POLLS. 10

ASIA   17

Maruti Suzuki Is The Healthiest Automotive Brand In India. 17

Toyota Tops YouGov Thailand’s 2021 Automotive Rankings. 18

Honda Tops YouGov Malaysia’s 2021 Automotive Rankings. 19

MENA   20

Toyota Tops Yougov’s 2021 Automotive Rankings In Saudi Arabia. 21

Three-In-Four Libyans Say The Economy Is In A Very Bad Or A Bad State. 22

AFRICA.. 29

Nine In 10 Nigerians (85%) Say They Are Concerned About Kidnappings. 29

WEST EUROPE.. 33

Six In Ten Do Not Want To Cut Spending On Public Services To Pay Off Debt 33

43% Londoners Think Sadiq Khan Has Handled COVID Well 35

Less Than Half Of Britons Expected To Tick ‘Christian’ In Uk Census. 36

1 In 2 French People Think The Pandemic Has Exacerbated Ethnic Discrimination. 38

Youtube Is The Most Popular Online Music Service Among Germans. 39

71% Of 14 To 24-Year-Olds State That They Have Good Social Contacts With Friends. 40

Finland's Strongest Car Brands. 43

Above 50% Vaccination Propensity In Hungary. 44

NORTH AMERICA.. 50

69 Americans Say It Is Very Important For Federal Law Enforcement Agencies To Find And Prosecute The People Who Broke Into The U.S. Capitol On Jan 6. 50

AUSTRALIA.. 66

Toyota Tops YouGov Australia’s 2021 Automotive Rankings. 66

73.7% Of Australians Holding Private Health Insurance Are Satisfied. 68

Movement Of People In Melbourne Cbd Is At 39% Of Normal One Year After The First Covid Lockdown. 69

MULTICOUNTRY STUDIES. 71

Global Consumer Confidence Getting Closer To Pre-Pandemic Level 71

81% Of Spanish Mothers And Fathers Feel Judged By Others. 74

After Covid-19: Putting People Before Politics Is Key To Recovery. 76

The Pandemic Stalls Growth In The Global Middle Class, Pushes Poverty Up Sharply. 78

 


 

INTRODUCTORY NOTE

 

This weekly report consists of twenty two surveys. The report includes four multi-country studies from different states across the globe.

 

682-43-23/Commentary: The Pandemic Stalls Growth In The Global Middle Class, Pushes Poverty Up Sharply

The COVID-19 pandemic is having a deep effect on the global economy. In January 2020, as reports of the novel coronavirus were emerging, the World Bank forecasted that the global economy would expand by 2.5% that year. In January 2021, with the pandemic still holding much of the world in its grip, the World Bank estimated that the global economy contracted by 4.3% in 2020, a turnabout of 6.8 percentage points.

Chart showing the COVID-19 downturn curbed growth in the global middle class, increased poverty sharply in 2020

The economic downturn is likely to have diminished living standards around the world, pushing millions out of the global middle class and swelling the ranks of the poor. At the same time, the path to a recovery is clouded with uncertainties.

A new Pew Research Center analysis finds that the global middle class encompassed 54 million fewer people in 2020 than the number projected prior to the onset of the pandemic. Meanwhile, the number of poor is estimated to have been 131 million higher because of the recession.

The drop-off in the global middle class was centered in South Asia and in East Asia and the Pacific, and it stalled the expansion seen in the years preceding the pandemic. South Asia, specifically India, along with Sub-Saharan Africa, accounted for most of the increase in poverty, reversing years of progress on this front.

As defined in this report (and in previous Pew Research Center analyses), people who are middle income live on $10.01-$20 a day, which translates to an annual income of about $14,600 to $29,200 for a family of four. This is modest by the standards of advanced economies. In fact, it straddles the official poverty line in the United States – about $23,000 for a family of four in 2020 (expressed in 2011 prices). By global standards, the poor live on $2 or less a day, or no more than $2,920 annually for a family of four.

The number of people in the global high-income tier (more than $50 daily) is estimated to have decreased by 62 million in 2020, erasing about half of the gain since 2011, with most of the change emanating from advanced economies. Meanwhile, the upper-middle income population ($20.01-$50 daily) fell by 36 million, while the low-income population ($2.01-$10 daily) is estimated to have increased by 21 million.

Who is middle class (or middle income)?

This report uses the terms “middle income” and “middle class” interchangeably, a common practice among economists who tend to define the middle class in terms of income or consumption. But being middle class can connote more than income, be it a college education, white-collar work, economic security, owning a home, or having certain social and political values. Class could also simply be a matter of self-identification. The interplay among these many factors is examined in studies by Hout (2007) and Savage et al. (2013), among others.

The population in each global region is divided into five groups: poor, low income, middle income, upper-middle income and high income. The poor live on $2 or less daily, low income on $2.01-$10, middle income on $10.01-$20, upper-middle income on $20.01-$50 and high income on more than $50. All dollar figures are expressed in 2011 prices and purchasing power parity dollars, currency exchange rates adjusted for differences in the prices of goods and services across countries.

The assignment to a group, or income tier, is based on a household’s daily per capita income or consumption, a simple way of controlling for differences in household size. In the source data, some countries only report income data while others only report consumption data. The terms “income” and “consumption” are used interchangeably for the sake of convenience.

A middle-income, or middle-class, threshold of $10 follows the practice of other researchers. A similar threshold has been used by the World Bank (20072015), researchers at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (Kharas, 2010), the development community (Birdsall, Lustig and Meyer, 2013) and others. There is evidence that the $10 threshold, which is about five times higher than the World Bank’s global poverty line, is associated with economic security and “insulates” people from falling back into poverty. An earlier Pew Research Center report discusses the choice of income thresholds in greater detail.

The global middle-class standard is modest by the standards of advanced economies. In 2020, the official poverty line for a family of four in the U.S. stood at about $15.90 per person per day (in 2011 prices). Thus, many who are poor by the U.S. definition would meet the global middle-income standard or, conversely, many who are in the global middle class would be poor by U.S. standards.

Chart showing that globally, most are either poor or low income, and the pandemic likely drove the numbers higher in 2020

These estimates are based on the Center’s analysis of World Bank data on the distribution of people by either income or consumption levels in seven major global regions. The latest available estimates of income for each region, such as for 2018 for Europe and Central Asia and 2015 for the Middle East and North Africa, are extrapolated to 2020 using two sets of growth estimates: the forecasts issued by the World Bank in January 2020, prior to the pandemic, and the estimates issued in January 2021, with the pandemic’s economic impact in plainer sight. The difference between these two measures is taken to represent the impact of the COVID-19 downturn on the standard of living of people globally.

Prior to the emergence of COVID-19, some 1.38 billion people were expected to be counted in the global middle class in 2020. But the pandemic is estimated to have driven this number down to 1.32 billion. The share of people in the middle class globally is estimated to have been 17.1% in 2020, instead of potentially 17.8%. The erosion in the middle class might have been deeper if not for the fact that China – which is home to more than one-third of the global middle class – evaded an economic contraction, even though growth there was slower than anticipated.

The number of global poor is estimated to have risen to 803 million in 2020, much greater than the 672 million initially expected. The global poverty rate, which had been in steady decline this century, is likely to have increased to 10.4%, nearly reverting to the rate in 2017, instead of sinking to a new low of 8.7%, as previously expected.

The steep rise in global poverty is driven by the fact that many who were in the low-income tier prior to the pandemic lived on the margin of poverty. In 2017, 877 million people lived on $2 to $3 a day, according to World Bank estimates. Thus, large numbers were susceptible to falling back into poverty prior to the pandemic, especially in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa.

At the other end of the economic spectrum, the global high-income population likely fell to 531 million in 2020 from the 593 million originally expected. Consequently, the expected share in the high-income tier is 6.8%, not 7.6%. A vast majority of the global high-income population lives in advanced economies, and this group of countries also experienced a sharp downturn in 2020. Ironically, this bolstered the global middle-income population as people in advanced economies slipped down the ladder from higher income tiers.  

Chart showing that the global middle class expanded rapidly from 2011 to 2019, and poverty fell sharply

The reversal in global living standards in 2020 comes on the heels of notable progress earlier in the decade. From 2011 to 2019, the global middle-class population increased from 899 million to 1.34 billion, or by 54 million people annually, on average. The pandemic is estimated to have erased a year of growth, leaving the global middle-class population nearly unchanged from 2019 to 2020.

Global poverty had abated at an average rate of 49 million annually from 2011 to 2019, with the number of global poor falling from 1.10 billion to 691 million during this period. The pandemic, by adding 131 million to the ranks of the poor, has set the progress on poverty back by several years, and the poverty rate is estimated to have increased from 9.0% in 2019 to 10.4% in 2020.

From 2011 to 2019, the global high-income population had increased from 459 million to 576 million, growing by an average of 15 million annually. Thus, the setback of 62 million due to the pandemic in 2020 also reverses several years of growth in the high-income population. The share of the global population in the high-income tier is expected to have decreased from 7.5% in 2019 to 6.8% in 2020.

The erosion of the middle class is centered in Asia, the rise in poverty in Asia and Africa

The effect of the COVID-19 downturn on the middle class and other income tiers shows distinct regional differences. Asia is expected to have accounted for most of the shrinking of the global middle class in 2020, with the middle-class population falling by 32 million in South Asia and by 19 million in East Asia and the Pacific. Meanwhile, the middle class in advanced economies is estimated to have increased by 16 million, in part due to the drop-off in the high-income tier in those countries.

Chart showing that South Asia is estimated to have experienced the largest decrease in the middle class and the greatest increase in poverty due to the COVID-19 downturn in 2020

The projected rise in global poverty in the pandemic is concentrated in South Asia (an increase of 78 million) and Sub-Saharan Africa (40 million), historically among the poorest regions in the world. The high-income population in advanced economies is estimated to have shrunk by 47 million in 2020, accounting for most of the falloff globally. It should be noted that the global cutoff for the high-income tier – more than $50 a day – is not much higher than the median income across advanced economies, as an estimated 40% of the population in these countries is in the global high-income tier. Thus, the contraction of the high-income tier in advanced economies is more a reflection of the reduction in the standard of living of the typical person in these countries than outcomes for the wealthy.

The contribution of a region to global changes overall and the shift in its own income distribution depends mostly on two factors: the sizes of income tiers in the region prior to the COVID-19 recession and the impact of the downturn on economic growth in the region.

Prior to the pandemic, nearly half of the global middle-class population – 672 million of 1.38 billion – was estimated to live in East Asia and the Pacific, a region that includes China. Latin America and the Caribbean accounted for 191 million, and Europe and Central Asia was home to 183 million. South Asia accounted for 123 million more.

In view of these magnitudes, the estimated loss (relative to pre-pandemic expectations) of 32 million people from the middle class in South Asia is notable for two reasons. First, the region contributed the most to the shrinking of the global middle class in 2020 despite having a middle-income population smaller than several other regions. Second, the percentage decrease in South Asia’s middle-income population from what was previously expected (26%) is much greater than in any other region. Although East Asia and the Pacific shed 19 million from the middle-income tier, that represented only 3% of its middle class.

Chart showing that prior to the pandemic, most of the global middle class lived in East Asia and the Pacific, the poor in Sub-Saharan Africa, high-income earners in advanced economies

Poverty is most prevalent in Sub-Saharan Africa. Some 494 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa, out of a total population of 1.14 billion, were expected to be living in poverty ahead of the pandemic in 2020. South Asia, with a total population of 1.86 billion, was expected to be home to 104 million poor. Nonetheless, South Asia is estimated to have added nearly double the amount of people to the ranks of the globally poor as Sub-Saharan Africa in the pandemic. The percentage increase in poverty in South Asia (75%) dwarfs the increase in Sub-Saharan Africa (8%).

The number of poor in other regions was smaller, estimated to range from 6 million in Europe and Central Asia to 27 million in Latin America and the Caribbean ahead of the pandemic in 2020. But, since that moment, the increase in poverty in these regions is notable. The Middle East and North Africa and East Asia and the Pacific are each estimated to have seen increases in poverty of more than 20% due to the recession. The rise in poverty in both Europe and Central Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean is not far behind, with each experiencing a 17% increase in poverty.

A large majority of the global high-income population – 489 million of 593 million – lived in advanced economies before the global recession took hold. The estimated decrease of 47 million, or 10%, in this population in advanced economies accounts for most of the shrinking of the global high-income tier.

In proportional terms, the drop off in the high-income tier is also notable in Latin America and the Caribbean (15%), Europe and Central Asia (12%) and East Asia and the Pacific (12%). The losses in the Middle East and North Africa, South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa are relatively small in magnitude (each less than 1 million people) but also represent double-digit shares of the high-income populations in those regions.

Table showing South Asia estimated to have seen the sharpest drop in output growth in 2020, East Asia and the Pacific the least

The relatively outsized role of South Asia in the contraction of the global middle class and the expansion of poverty is the result of it seeing the sharpest reduction in economic growth in the pandemic. In January 2020, the World Bank forecasted that South Asia would experience a 4.3% increase in gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in 2020. But, in January 2021, output in South Asia was estimated to have decreased by 7.8% in 2020, a retreat of 12.1 percentage points from potential.

The setback to economic growth in other regions is smaller, ranging from 4.7 percentage points in East Asia and the Pacific to 8.6 points in Latin America and the Caribbean. East Asia and the Pacific is the only region in which growth is estimated to have stayed positive in 2020, with GDP per capita inching up by 0.4% even after the onset of the pandemic. Otherwise, the latest estimates of the change in output per capita in 2020 ranged from -3.2% in Europe and Central Asia to -7.8% in Latin America and the Caribbean.

(PEW)

MARCH 18, 2021

Source: https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2021/03/18/the-pandemic-stalls-growth-in-the-global-middle-class-pushes-poverty-up-sharply/

 

SUMMARY OF POLLS

ASIA

(India)

Maruti Suzuki Is The Healthiest Automotive Brand In India

Maruti Suzuki tops YouGov’s 2021 Auto Rankings in India with an Index score of 28.6. Despite this year’s global pandemic and consequent economic downturns, the Indian auto manufacturer enjoys the best brand health among consumers in India. The rankings were based on the Index score from YouGov BrandIndex, which is a measure of overall brand health calculated by taking the average of Impression, Quality, Value, Satisfaction, Recommend and Reputation.

(YouGov India)

March 16, 2021

 

(Thailand)

Toyota Tops YouGov Thailand’s 2021 Automotive Rankings

Toyota tops YouGov’s 2021 Automotive Rankings for Thailand with an Index score of +42.8, making it the car brand with the best overall brand health according to Thais. The rankings are compiled using YouGov BrandIndex Index score, a measure of overall brand health calculated by taking the average of Impression, Quality, Value, Satisfaction, Recommend and Reputation scores. The rankings are measured from 1 February 2020 to 31 January 2021.   

(YouGov Thailand)

March 16, 2021

 

(Malaysia)

Honda Tops YouGov Malaysia’s 2021 Automotive Rankings

Honda tops YouGov’s 2021 Automotive Rankings for Malaysia with an Index score of +37.9, making it the car brand with the best overall brand health according to Malaysians. The rankings are compiled using YouGov BrandIndex Index score, a measure of overall brand health calculated by taking the average of Impression, Quality, Value, Satisfaction, Recommend and Reputation scores. The rankings are measured from 1 February 2020 to 31 January.

(YouGov Malaysia)
March 16, 2021

 

MENA

(Saudi Arabia)

Toyota Tops Yougov’s 2021 Automotive Rankings In Saudi Arabia

YouGov’s 2021 Automotive Rankings reveal Toyota enjoys the best brand health among Saudi residents and tops the list with an Index score of 36. Along with the parent brand, its luxury segment subsidiary- Lexus also makes a presence in the list in third (with a score of 22.6).

(YouGov MENA)
March 16, 2021

 

(Libya)

Three-In-Four Libyans Say The Economy Is In A Very Bad Or A Bad State

When asked about the most important challenge currently facing the country, three-in-ten Libyans say it is the internal instability while 26% cite foreign interference. The dire economic situation comes third with 20%, and the COVID19 threat is seen by only 12% as the most important challenge facing Libya. However, COVID19 remains a source of concern. The majority of Libyans (72%) say they are very concerned or somewhat concerned about the spread of the virus in the next 6 months.

(Arabbarometer)

March 16, 2021

 

AFRICA

(Nigeria)

Nine In 10 Nigerians (85%) Say They Are Concerned About Kidnappings

Almost nine in 10 Nigerians (85%) say they are concerned about kidnappings and attempted kidnappings in their state, including 55% who are “very concerned” about this issue. Only 13% say they are either not that concerned or not concerned at all. Apprehension about kidnappings is more widespread in the three northern zones – North West (96%), North East (89%), and North Central (87%) – than in the South.

(Afrobarometer)

March 18, 2021 

 

WEST EUROPE

(UK)

Six In Ten Do Not Want To Cut Spending On Public Services To Pay Off Debt

The new Ipsos MORI Political Monitor finds that most Britons (54%) believe that the Government has spent about the right amount on supporting ordinary people during the pandemic so far (29% say they’ve spent too little). However, when it comes to future spending the public are more split, with 45% thinking the Government will spend too little on supporting ordinary people during the recovery from the pandemic and 40% thinking they will spend the right amount.

(Ipsos MORI)

17 March 2021

 

43% Londoners Think Sadiq Khan Has Handled COVID Well

Overall, Londoners are split over Khan’s handling of the pandemic: 43% think he has handled it well, while 39% think he has handled it badly. Labour voters (60%) are the most likely to think Khan has handled the pandemic well, including one in eight (12%) who think Khan has handled it “very well”. However, around a quarter of Labour voters (26%) are not happy with Khan’s performance and think he has handled the pandemic badly.

(YouGov UK)

March 18, 2021

 

Less Than Half Of Britons Expected To Tick ‘Christian’ In Uk Census

The once-a-decade snapshot of the country has included a voluntary question about religion since 2001. In 2011, returns across England and Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland showed 59.3% ticking Christianity, a fall from 71.6% a decade earlier. Day predicted the proportion of people ticking Christianity “could drop below 50%”. Peter Brierley, an expert on religion statistics, said he predicted 48% or 49% identifying as Christian, but David Voas, head of the social sciences department at University College London, said he would be surprised if the figure fell below 50%.

(The Guardian)

March 20, 2021

 

(France)

1 In 2 French People Think The Pandemic Has Exacerbated Ethnic Discrimination

7 out of 10 French people believe that the criteria of origin influence the possibilities of access to housing. 69% of French people surveyed also believe that they condition access to employment and 63% that they determine access to education. Almost a quarter (24%) of French people surveyed declared having had personal experience of situations in which they considered their origin to have been an obstacle. More than half (52%) of French people (n ° 2 after Spain) think that the pandemic has exacerbated discrimination - employment, education, housing or social services - linked to ethnic origins.

(Ipsos France)

March 21, 2021

 

(Germany)

Youtube Is The Most Popular Online Music Service Among Germans

Not only video but also audio streaming was the focus, in the latter case especially podcasts and music streaming. In this context, 35 percent of Germans state that they currently use the YouTube platform, regardless of whether they have free or paid access. This is what respondents aged 18 to 44 say most often (41-42 percent). The streaming portal Spotify only ranks second among all German respondents with 21 percent, but it is more important for the 18 to 29 year olds: Half (50 percent) of that age group state that they currently use Spotify.

(YouGov Germany)

March 19, 2021

 

71% Of 14 To 24-Year-Olds State That They Have Good Social Contacts With Friends

The proportion of 14 to 24-year-olds who state that they have good social contacts with friends has decreased by ten percentage points to 71 percent during this period. In terms of contacts with family members, the difference compared to the survey from December 2019 is eight percentage points. Likewise, the proportion of those who can “be there for others” to the desired extent falls in Generation Z by eight percentage points to 52 percent.  

(Ipsos Germany)

18 March 2021

 

(Finland)

Finland's Strongest Car Brands

When Finns evaluate car brands on six indicators (quality, general image, value for money, willingness to recommend, reputation and satisfaction), Toyota ranks number one. Volvo grabs second place in the Finnish rankings and Mercedes-Benz third place. In addition to Mercedes-Benz, several German brands will rise to the TOP10 list. Volkswagen is fourth, Audi fifth and BMW sixth. Japanese brands can also be found on the list in addition to Toyota, with Honda ranked nineth and Nissan ranked tenth.

(YouGov Finland)

March 16, 2021

 

(Hungary)

Above 50% Vaccination Propensity In Hungary

Rejection is highest in the under-30 age group, at 56%, compared to only 32%. Among those over 50, the proportion is just the opposite. In absolute terms, two-thirds of the population who have received at least one vaccination is over 60, and two-thirds are also women. Half of those who oppose the vaccine are under the age of 40 (although they make up 38% of the adult population), yet vaccination can be measured at the same rate among both sexes.

(Ipsos Hungary)

March 16, 2021

 

NORTH AMERICA

(USA)

69 Americans Say It Is Very Important For Federal Law Enforcement Agencies To Find And Prosecute The People Who Broke Into The U.S. Capitol On Jan 6

The survey by Pew Research Center, conducted March 1-7, 2021, among 12,055 U.S. adults who are members of the Center’s nationally representative American Trends Panel, finds a wide majority of Americans (69%) saying it is “very important” for federal law enforcement agencies to find and prosecute the people who broke into the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6. Another 18% say doing this is “somewhat important.” Just 12% say this is not too or not at all important.

(PEW)

MARCH 18, 2021

 

AUSTRALIA

Toyota Tops YouGov Australia’s 2021 Automotive Rankings

Toyota tops YouGov’s 2021 Automotive Rankings for Australia with an Index score of +43.9, making it the car brand with the best overall brand health according to Australians. The rankings are compiled using YouGov BrandIndex Index score, a measure of overall brand health calculated by taking the average of Impression, Quality, Value, Satisfaction, Recommend and Reputation scores. The rankings are measured from 1 February 2020 to 31 January 2021.

(YouGov Australia)

March 16, 2021

 

73.7% Of Australians Holding Private Health Insurance Are Satisfied

Australia’s largest fund by market share, Medibank Private, had a satisfaction rating of 69.8%, one of the lowest of the more than two dozen funds measured. BUPA, which is a close second in terms of market share, had a slightly higher score of 71.5%. Each of those funds has more than twice as many members as the next largest fund, HCF, which had a customer satisfaction rating of 75%.

(Roy Morgan)

March 17 2021

 

Movement Of People In Melbourne Cbd Is At 39% Of Normal One Year After The First Covid Lockdown

The Adelaide CBD has been the standout performer over the last two months with movement levels in mid-March now at 83% of the pre-COVID-19 levels and above 70% since the start of February. Movement levels in the Adelaide CBD have averaged more than 10% higher than either Brisbane CBD, Perth CBD or Hobart CBD during the last two months.

(Roy Morgan)

March 19 2021

 

MULTICOUNTRY STUDIES

Global Consumer Confidence Getting Closer To Pre-Pandemic Level

Six of the 24 surveyed markets show significant growth in their National Index when compared to February 2021: Great Britain (+3.6), the United States (+2.2), Belgium (+1.8), Canada (+1.7), Japan (+1.7), and Turkey (+1.6). Meanwhile, not a single market has experienced a significant drop, defined as 1.5 index points or more.

(Ipsos Egypt)

17 March 2021

 

81% Of Spanish Mothers And Fathers Feel Judged By Others

On a global average, 82% parents interviewed in the countries where the study was carried out, feel judged. A percentage very similar to that of Spain, where 81% of parents feel questioned about their parenting method . Positioning itself as the third country in Europe that feels the most judged in this regard, only behind Poland (91%) and the United Kingdom and Hungary (both with 83%). Germany, Holland and France, all of them with the same percentage (77%), are the Europeans who feel less questioned. 

(Ipsos Spain)

March 17, 2021

 

After Covid-19: Putting People Before Politics Is Key To Recovery

Mentioned by a third of people (33%) and equally likely to be picked out by men and women, the most important quality that people want from their political leaders in order to be considered to do a good job in handling the recovery from the pandemic is to put their country’s needs before politics. This is followed by being honest with the public (29%), understanding the problems facing ordinary people (28%), taking into account the impact on the economy as well as on health (25%) and making the right decisions at the right time (25%).

(Ipsos South Africa)

18 March 2021

 

The Pandemic Stalls Growth In The Global Middle Class, Pushes Poverty Up Sharply

Global poverty had abated at an average rate of 49 million annually from 2011 to 2019, with the number of global poor falling from 1.10 billion to 691 million during this period. The pandemic, by adding 131 million to the ranks of the poor, has set the progress on poverty back by several years, and the poverty rate is estimated to have increased from 9.0% in 2019 to 10.4% in 2020.

(PEW)

MARCH 18, 2021

 

 

 


 

ASIA

682-43-01/Poll

Maruti Suzuki Is The Healthiest Automotive Brand In India

Maruti Suzuki tops YouGov’s 2021 Auto Rankings in India with an Index score of 28.6. Despite this year’s global pandemic and consequent economic downturns, the Indian auto manufacturer enjoys the best brand health among consumers in India.

The rankings were based on the Index score from YouGov BrandIndex, which is a measure of overall brand health calculated by taking the average of Impression, Quality, Value, Satisfaction, Recommend and Reputation1

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/inlineimage/2021-03-16/AutomotiveRankings2021-ind.png

The 2021 rankings show urban Indians’ strong affinity towards Japanese auto brands. After Maruti Suzuki, Honda takes the second place with a score of 27.2.

Honda particularly seems to have had a great year despite the pandemic. The brand created awareness about the pandemic through its successful ad campaign “Until we drive again #Stayathome” created entirely from home.

Apart from this, the Japanese car manufacturer took several steps to ensure the safety, well-being and convenience of its customers and dealers across the country amidst a national lockdown.

Along with the parent brand, Honda 2 wheelers also makes an entry into the list at nine (with a score of 19.8).

Hyundai and Toyota take the sixth (21.7) and tenth (17.2) place, respectively.

German luxury auto brands BMW, Audi and Mercedes Benz take fifth, seventh and eighth place in the rankings, with a score of 22.2, 20.2 and 19.9, respectively.

Despite stiff competition from foreign brands, two Indian brands make an appearance in the list: Royal Enfield at third (score of +23.3) and Tata Motors at fourth (score of +23.2)

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/inlineimage/2021-03-16/TwoWheelerRankings2021-TopRanked-lp300dpi_v2.jpg

Commenting on the research, Deepa Bhatia, General Manager at YouGov India said: “YouGov’s 2021 Auto Rankings reveals the healthiest auto brands in the market. The Indian rankings show a dominance of Japanese car brands or their subsidiaries, with five leading brands making up the top 10 list. Affinity towards German luxury cars is also strong among urban Indians.

In an overall tough year for carmakers, it is good to see Indian brands Tata Motors and Royal Enfield strengthening their place amidst global players and enjoying good brand health among Indian consumers.

(YouGov India)

March 16, 2021

Source: https://in.yougov.com/en-hi/news/2021/03/16/maruti-suzuki-healthiest-automotive-brand-india/

682-43-02/Poll

Toyota Tops YouGov Thailand’s 2021 Automotive Rankings

Toyota tops YouGov’s 2021 Automotive Rankings for Thailand with an Index score of +42.8, making it the car brand with the best overall brand health according to Thais. 

The rankings are compiled using YouGov BrandIndex Index score, a measure of overall brand health calculated by taking the average of Impression, Quality, Value, Satisfaction, Recommend and Reputation scores. The rankings are measured from 1 February 2020 to 31 January 2021.   

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/76co8mn790/AutomotiveRankings2021-tha.png

Toyota tops the charts in every metric except for one, particularly when it comes to Value (measuring the brand that consumers think is the most value-for-money) with a score of +45.5, making it 9.8 points ahead Honda (Cars), the brand with the next highest score in this metric (+35.7). The one metric however that Toyota does not score top in is for Satisfaction (which measures how satisfied consumers are with that brand), narrowly beat out by Honda (Motorcycles) (+30.4).

Japanese brands dominate the top ten, with Honda (Cars) in second (+36.8), Honda (Motorcycles) in third (+32.0), Isuzu in fifth (+24.9), Mazda in seventh (+18.9), Yamaha in eighth (+18.5), Nissan in ninth (+17.9) and Mitsubishi in tenth (+15.8).

German automotive manufacturers make up the rest of the top ten. BMW comes in fourth (+25.5) and Mercedes-Benz in sixth (+20.1). They both fare well in the Reputation metric (which measures the corporate reputation of a brand by asking which brands consumers would be proud of working for). BMW comes in third (+35.0) and Mercedes-Benz in fourth (+29.3).

(YouGov Thailand)

March 16, 2021

Source: https://th.yougov.com/en-th/news/2021/03/16/toyota-tops-yougov-thailands-2021-automotive-ranki/

682-43-03/Poll

Honda Tops YouGov Malaysia’s 2021 Automotive Rankings

Honda tops YouGov’s 2021 Automotive Rankings for Malaysia with an Index score of +37.9, making it the car brand with the best overall brand health according to Malaysians.

The rankings are compiled using YouGov BrandIndex Index score, a measure of overall brand health calculated by taking the average of Impression, Quality, Value, Satisfaction, Recommend and Reputation scores. The rankings are measured from 1 February 2020 to 31 January 2021. https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/gxvmkv1iot/AutomotiveRankings2021-mys.png

While Honda tops the list overall, there are three metrics where it falls behind other brands. It is beaten out by local car manufacturer Perodua (+44.0) by a big margin when it comes to Value (measuring the brand consumer see as most value-for-money), and Toyota (+35.5) by a small margin – Honda comes in third (+35.2). Perodua (+29.6) also beats out Honda (+21.5) when it comes to Satisfaction (which measures how satisfied consumers are with that brand). By scoring top marks in Value and Satisfaction, and high scores in other metrics, Perodua comes in third place overall (+33.6).

Honda is also beaten out by Mercedes-Benz when it comes to Reputation (which measures the corporate reputation of a brand by asking which brands consumers would be proud of working for). The German automotive brand holds a Reputation score of +39.3, followed by BMW (+38.8) and then Honda (+38.1). The brand Malaysians would be least proud to work for is Proton (+14.9).

Japanese brands dominate the top ten. Toyota comes in second (+36.1), Nissan in eighth (+14.4) and Mazda in tenth (+12.9). German brands also fare well with Mercedes-Benz in fourth (+23.4), BMW in fifth (+23.3).

Malaysia’s national car brand Proton places sixth (+18.4), and the list is rounded off with British brand Range Rover in ninth (+13.2).

(YouGov Malaysia)
March 16, 2021

Source: https://my.yougov.com/en-my/news/2021/03/16/honda-tops-yougov-malaysias-2021-automotive-rankin/

 

MENA

682-43-04/Poll

Toyota Tops Yougov’s 2021 Automotive Rankings In Saudi Arabia

YouGov’s 2021 Automotive Rankings reveal Toyota enjoys the best brand health among Saudi residents and tops the list with an Index score of 36. Along with the parent brand, its luxury segment subsidiary- Lexus also makes a presence in the list in third (with a score of 22.6).

YouGov 2021 BrandIndex Automotive Ranking is determined using Index score – which assesses overall brand health. The score takes into account consumers’ perception of a brand’s overall quality, value, impression, reputation, satisfaction and whether consumers would recommend the brand to others.

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The 2021 rankings show Saudi residents’ affinity towards Japanese auto brands as they occupy four spots in the rankings. Along with Toyota and Lexus, Honda and Nissan are also present in the list, at sixth (17.6) and eight place (13.8), respectively.

German luxury car brands are not far behind and are equally well represented, with Mercedes Benz and BMW landing at second (with a score of 29.7) and fourth (22.5), respectively, and Audi at ninth place (13.7). The launch of the BMW X series and Audi’s new E-commerce platform last year (enabling customers to buy Audi cars online during the pandemic) may have helped the luxury carmakers strengthen their position in the market and secure a place in the 2021 rankings.

Hyundai is ranked fifth (19.6), while American car brands Ford and GMC, took the seventh (16.2) and tenth spot (13.6), completing the list of KSA’s top ten auto brands in 2021.

Commenting on the rankings, Scott Booth of YouGov said, “Like many other industries automakers also suffered the impact of the Coronavirus lockdowns. However, things seem to have gradually improved as vaccination efforts expand across the world. Our data shows that Saudi residents have a strong affinity towards Japanese automakers with four of the leading brands making the top 10 list this year. Not far behind are German luxury cars that enjoy strong brand health among the population. The rankings show that despite the impact of the pandemic on consumer purchasing patterns, the strength of bellwether auto brands remains and they maintain strong brand health in the country."

(YouGov MENA)
March 16, 2021

Source: https://mena.yougov.com/en/news/2021/03/16/toyota-tops-yougovs-2021-automotive-rankings-saudi/

682-43-05/Poll

Three-In-Four Libyans Say The Economy Is In A Very Bad Or A Bad State

The following are among the key findings from a nationally-representative public opinion survey conducted in Libya by Arab Barometer in October 2020. The survey conducted 1008 phone interviews with randomly-selected Libyan citizens aged 18 or older. This unique survey captures the sentiments of Libyan citizens during the unprecedented times of the COVID-19 pandemic. The survey has a margin of error of ± 3 percent.

Key facts and figures

EVALUATION OF CURRENT SITUATION

  • When asked about the most important challenge currently facing the country, three-in-ten Libyans say it is the internal instability while 26% cite foreign interference. The dire economic situation comes third with 20%, and the COVID19 threat is seen by only 12% as the most important challenge facing Libya.
  • However, COVID19 remains a source of concern. The majority of Libyans (72%) say they are very concerned or somewhat concerned about the spread of the virus in the next 6 months.
  • The concern over the spread of COVID19 in Libya is, in part, the result of a wide perception that the healthcare system is incapable of dealing with the pandemic. Only 26% of Libyans express satisfaction when asked about the healthcare system in the country. With the current health challenges, it is no surprise that 44% choose the healthcare system as their preferred top priority for government spending in the upcoming year.
  • The education system fared even poorer. Only 24% say they are completely satisfied or satisfied with the education system; and 26% choose it as top priority for government spending in the upcoming year. It is worth noting that schools closed for extended periods during the pandemic as the country lacked the necessary infrastructure to switch to virtual learning.
  • The ongoing conflict and divisions have worsened the economic situation in the country. Three-in-four Libyans say the economy is in a very bad or a bad state.

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VIEWS ON DEMOCRACY

  • Almost 10 years after the uprising that toppled the Gaddafi regime, Libyans continue to have strong views on democracy. 71% say that free elections are absolutely or somewhat essential part of democracy. It is noteworthy here that the latest general elections were held in June 2014 for the House of Representatives.
  • The same percentage of Libyans say it is absolutely or somewhat essential that all people have the same rights regardless of religion or ethnicity.
  • A slightly less portion (68%) say that the provision of basic necessities for all is absolutely or somewhat essential part of democracy.
  • However, the reality of the situation is far from ideal. Only half say that freedom of the press is guaranteed to a great or a medium extent in the country. Freedom of expression and freedom to protest fared worse with 49% and 47%, respectively.
  • When asked about the laws, 46% of Libyans say they should be entirely or mostly based on Sharia, while 42% say they should be equally based on Sharia and the will of the people. Only 1-in-10 say they should be based entirely or mostly on the will of the people.

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VIEWS ON FOREIGN POWERS

  • No global or regional power seems to enjoy large popularity among Libyans. Roughly only a third of Libyans express favorable views of China. It is worth noting that China is the country with least presence in Libya among the countries mentioned in the survey.
  • Both Turkey and Russia have been interfering heavily in Libya over the course of the last decade, and especially since the 2019 attack on Tripoli by the Libyan Arab Armed Forces, supported by Russia, against the Government of National Accord, supported by Turkey. While 27% express favorable views of Turkey, a slightly smaller percentage (26%) say they have very or somewhat favorable views of Russia.
  • The United States came last with only 14% say their views of the US are favorable. This perhaps has to do, at least in part, with President Trump’s travel ban that targeted Libya, among a few other countries in 2017.

https://www.arabbarometer.org/wp-content/uploads/Q700B_Libya_4COUNTRIES-740x683.png

(Arabbarometer)

March 16, 2021

Source: https://www.arabbarometer.org/2021/03/fact-sheet-libyas-pulse-during-the-covid-19-pandemic/

 

AFRICA

682-43-06/Poll

Nine In 10 Nigerians (85%) Say They Are Concerned About Kidnappings

 

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Abuja, Nigeria – March 2, 2021: Most Nigerians are concerned about kidnappings and attempted kidnappings in their state, the most recent Afrobarometer study shows. The apprehension is widespread among all socio-demographic groups and highest in northern Nigeria.

The study also shows that crime/security is among the three most important problems that Nigerians want their government to address.

Kidnappings by extremists and criminal gangs have plagued Nigeria in recent years, especially in the North. Hundreds of schoolgirls in Zamfara State were kidnapped last Friday, and later released, and about 26 people, including a chief imam, were kidnapped in Niger State on Saturday – the same day that 42 students kidnapped in the same state were ransomed.

Key findings

  • Almost nine in 10 Nigerians (85%) say they are concerned about kidnappings and attempted kidnappings in their state, including 55% who are “very concerned” about this issue (Figure 1).
    • Only 13% say they are either not that concerned or not concerned at all.
  • Apprehension about kidnappings is more widespread in the three northern zones – North West (96%), North East (89%), and North Central (87%) – than in the South  (Figure 2).
  • Crime/security joins electricity and infrastructure among the three most important problems that Nigerians want their government to address, ahead of unemployment, water supply, education, and poverty (Figure 3).

Afrobarometer surveys

Afrobarometer is a pan-African, nonpartisan survey research network that provides reliable data on African experiences and evaluations of democracy, governance, and quality of life. Seven rounds of surveys were completed in up to 38 countries between 1999 and 2018. Round 8 surveys in 2019/2021 are planned in at least 35 countries. Afrobarometer conducts face-to-face interviews in the language of the respondent’s choice with nationally representative samples.

The Afrobarometer team in Nigeria, led by NOIPolls, interviewed 1,599 adult citizens of Nigeria in January-February 2020. A sample of this size yields country-level results with a margin of error of +/-2.5 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. Previous surveys were conducted in Nigeria in 1999, 2002, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2012, 2014, and 2017.

Charts

Figure 1: Concerns about kidnapping | Nigeria | 2020

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Respondents were asked: How concerned are you about the problem of kidnappings and attempted kidnappings in your state?

Figure 2: Concerns about kidnapping | by zone | Nigeria | 2020

https://noi-polls.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/1B-1.png

Respondents were asked: How concerned are you about the problem of kidnappings and attempted kidnappings in your state? (% who say “somewhat concerned” or “very concerned”)

Figure 3: Top 10 most important problems | Nigeria | 2020

https://noi-polls.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/1C.png

(Afrobarometer)

March 18, 2021 

Source: https://noi-polls.com/kidnap-poll-afrobarometer-round-8-2020-survey-findings-in-nigeria/

 

WEST EUROPE

682-43-07/Poll

Six In Ten Do Not Want To Cut Spending On Public Services To Pay Off Debt

The new Ipsos MORI Political Monitor finds that most Britons (54%) believe that the Government has spent about the right amount on supporting ordinary people during the pandemic so far (29% say they’ve spent too little). However, when it comes to future spending the public are more split, with 45% thinking the Government will spend too little on supporting ordinary people during the recovery from the pandemic and 40% thinking they will spend the right amount. This is largely spilt along party lines with two in three Conservative supporters (66%) saying the Government will spend the right amount (20% say too little) while 68% of Labour supporters believe it will spend too little (24% say the right amount).

When asked if there is a “real need to cut spending on public services in order to pay off the very high national debt”, 26% agree but 61% disagree – similar to the balance of opinion when last asked in August 2018 (when 19% agreed and 58% disagreed). However, this is very different to the years after the financial crash in 2010, when most Britons believed there was a need to cut spending to pay off the debt (for example, by 59% to 32% in October 2010). Conservatives are more split on the matter, although are still more likely to oppose spending cuts with 38% agreeing and 48% disagreeing, while Labour supporters are more aligned with 12% agreeing and 75% disagreeing.

When it comes to the recent Budget half (52%) believe it is good for the country (25% say bad) – similar to levels seen after the March 2020 budget (54% good vs 22% bad). The last Budget previous to this that achieved similar ratings was in June 2010. Fewer however say that the Budget is good for them personally (39% good vs 26% bad), slightly lower than in 2020 (45% said good and 24% bad).

Public spending

Other key findings from the budget include:

  • Seven in ten (69%) support raising corporation tax on company profits above £250,000 from 19% to 25% in April 2023 (15% oppose).
  • Most (53%) support increasing the amount raised in income tax by freezing the threshold for paying 40% tax at earnings above £50,270 until April 2026 (23% oppose).
  • Just under half (47%) support increasing the amount raised in income tax by freezing the threshold for paying 20% tax at earnings above £12,750 until April 2026 (33% oppose).

However, nearly four in five (78%) members of the public believe that the pay rise of 1% for most NHS staff in England is too little. One in five (20%) believe it is the right amount, and only 7% think it is too much. Even Conservative supporters are at odds with the policy where 66% say that it is too little (32% say it’s the right amount), as do 91% of Labour supporters.

Overall, though, Rishi Sunak remains popular amongst the public. Three in five (59%) are satisfied with the way he is doing his job at Chancellor (up 3 points from February) while 27% are dissatisfied. When asked whether Rishi Sunak or Boris Johnson would make the most capable Prime Minister the public are split – 42% say Sunak and 41% say Johnson. Conservatives however are more likely to favour the PM (70% vs. 24% for Sunak) while Labour supporters are more likely to favour Sunak (57% vs. 24% for Johnson). The public are also split when it comes to asking if either Rishi Sunak or Keir Starmer would make the most capable Prime Minister (39% say Sunak and 37% say Starmer).

Sunak

Gideon Skinner, Head of Political Research at Ipsos MORI, said:

It looks like the politics of public spending post-Covid will be quite different to the reaction to the financial crash. Although then there was agreement that cuts were needed, now Britons don’t want to see further austerity. Broadly, the reaction to the recent Budget and the Chancellor’s satisfaction levels suggest that the public believes that Rishi Sunak is getting the balance right, although there is some concern that the recovery won’t see enough support for ordinary people – especially among those in their twenties and early thirties.

(Ipsos MORI)

17 March 2021

Source: https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/six-ten-do-not-want-cut-spending-public-services-pay-debt

682-43-08/Poll

43% Londoners Think Sadiq Khan Has Handled COVID Well

With the mayoral election fast approaching, how do Londoners think incumbent candidate Sadiq Khan has handled the pandemic ahead of visiting the polls?

Overall, Londoners are split over Khan’s handling of the pandemic: 43% think he has handled it well, while 39% think he has handled it badly.

Labour voters (60%) are the most likely to think Khan has handled the pandemic well, including one in eight (12%) who think Khan has handled it “very well”. However, around a quarter of Labour voters (26%) are not happy with Khan’s performance and think he has handled the pandemic badly.

While a similar number of Liberal Democrats (52%) think Khan is handling the pandemic well, Conservatives are more likely to think that Khan has handled the pandemic badly (68%) - including 41% of Tory voters who think Khan has handled the issue of COVID-19 “very badly”.

Khan’s rating among Londoners puts him slightly behind that of the UK government among Britons, YouGov’s latest research shows that 50% of all Britons think the government is handling the pandemic well, versus 45% of the population who think they are handling it badly.

However, in the devolved nations, people are much more positive of their own government’s handling. Some six in ten (60%) of Welsh people think the Welsh government are handling the crisis well while 33% think they are handling it badly. Scots held similar feelings in January, when 60% said the Scottish government was handling the pandemic well, compared to 36% who thought it was handling the crisis badly.

(YouGov UK)

March 18, 2021

Source: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/03/18/how-well-sadiq-khan-handling-covid-19

682-43-09/Poll

Less Than Half Of Britons Expected To Tick ‘Christian’ In Uk Census

The “post-Christian era” in the UK will be cemented by data emerging from Sunday’s census which is expected to show further generational disengagement from organised religion, according to a leading academic.

The once-a-decade snapshot of the country has included a voluntary question about religion since 2001. In 2011, returns across England and Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland showed 59.3% ticking Christianity, a fall from 71.6% a decade earlier.

Abby Day, professor of race, faith and culture at Goldsmiths, University of London, expects this year’s census to show a further erosion in Christian identity, mainly because postwar generations regard the church as irrelevant and immoral.

Day predicted the proportion of people ticking Christianity “could drop below 50%”. Peter Brierley, an expert on religion statistics, said he predicted 48% or 49% identifying as Christian, but David Voas, head of the social sciences department at University College London, said he would be surprised if the figure fell below 50%.

According to Day, further decline was largely due to baby boomers – people born between 1946 and 1964 – raising their children outside the institutions of religion.

“Religion tends to be transmitted within families. But many baby boomers, who were largely brought up by people who went to church, dramatically broke with that,” she told the Observer.

“Baby boomers have since raised a generation of millennials who don’t go to church. And people who weren’t brought up as practising Christians generally don’t become religious later in life. You don’t get many teenagers walking into churches when they haven’t been before.”

Based on recent interviews with about 50 baby boomers who were brought up in Christian families, Day said many had rejected church in favour of values considered to be more relevant, inclusive and humane.

“Post-Christians are motivated by ethics concerning gender and sexual equality, social justice, climate change and compassion. The churches failed to deliver on those moral issues and so lost moral authority.

“Today’s younger generations have a different sense of soul, meaning and morality, and it’s one that rejects the church’s record of abuse, racism, homophobia and sexism,” she said.

Church of England data shows that average Sunday attendance in 2019 was 600,000 adults, or fewer than 1% of the population. A third of those attending church were aged 70 or over.

Figures from the 2018 British Social Attitudes (BSA) survey showed that 52% of the UK public said they did not belong to any religion, 38% identified as Christian, and 9% identified with other faiths.

But in the last census, only 25% of the population said they had no religion. According to Voas, the difference in wording between the census question in England and Wales and the BSA question is “critical”.

“The BSA question is, ‘Do you regard yourself as belonging to a religious group?’ That notion of belonging pushes people to think, ‘Do I really belong, am I a member of a church?’… as opposed to identification with a heritage,” he told a Religion Media Centre event last week.

“The census question, ‘What is your religion?’, implies everyone should have one… You end up with very different results.”

survey from YouGov on behalf of Humanists UK, published this month, asked people the same question as the census, but then asked those who identified as Christian the reasons for their answer.

Almost six in 10 (59%) said it was because they had been christened, and 49% because they were brought up to think of themselves as Christian. More than a quarter (26%) said it was “because this is a Christian country”. Over half (51%) said they never attended a place of worship or did so less than once a year.

Only a third (34%) said they ticked Christian because they “believe in the teachings of Christianity”.

Andrew Copson, chief executive of Humanists UK, said: “Most people in the UK say they are non-religious, a distinct minority have religious beliefs, and very few attend places of worship.” Nevertheless, a majority of people ticked a religion box in the last census because of their background or upbringing.

‘A distinct minority have religious beliefs,’ says Andrew Copson of Humanists UK. Photograph: coldsnowstorm/Getty Images/iStockphoto

Humanists UK is urging people to tick the “no religion” box if they don’t believe in or practice a religion.

Day said there was a “dark side” to “cultural Christianity”. “The populist right has pushed the idea that we are a Christian country to reinforce its anti-immigration stance by fuelling rhetoric about Britain losing its identity.”

The proportion of the population identifying with non-Christian faiths was likely to increase “quite substantially” in the 2021 census as a result of immigration and higher birth rates in some minority communities, said Brierley.

The Office of National Statistics estimates it will take a year to process data from the census.

Northern Ireland was also holding a census on Sunday, but Scotland has postponed its census until 2022 because of the Covid pandemic.

(The Guardian)

March 20, 2021

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/mar/20/less-that-half-of-britons-expected-to-tick-christian-in-uk-census

682-43-10/Poll

1 In 2 French People Think The Pandemic Has Exacerbated Ethnic Discrimination

KEY FIGURES AND LESSONS FROM THE STUDY:

  • 7 out of 10 French people believe that the criteria of origin influence the possibilities of access to housing
  • 69% of French people surveyed also believe that they condition access to employment and 63% that they determine access to education
  • Almost a quarter (24%) of French people surveyed declared having had personal experience of situations in which they considered their origin to have been an obstacle .
  • More than half (52%) of French people (n ° 2 after Spain) think that the pandemic has exacerbated discrimination - employment, education, housing or social services - linked to ethnic origins.
  • With Japan and Belgium, France is one of the three countries where the gap between the perception of the weight of this discrimination and the concrete experience of the interviewees is the greatest.

Access to housing, the sinews of war

Has the crisis exacerbated discrimination based on ethnic origins? The new Ipsos Global Advisor study reveals that 65% of French respondents believe that the criteria of origin really influence the possibilities of access to fundamentals , such as housing, employment or education. Globally, the share rises to 60% of those interviewed.

On the issue of access to housing, 70% of respondents in France - 10 points more than the overall average - think that the criteria of race, ethnicity or national origin play a role .

Almost a quarter of French people (23%) say they have experienced it themselves (compared to 35% globally). Note that on this point, France appearing in the bottom four countries in the ranking, far behind India, which comes first with 65%.

Employment and education also impacted by discrimination

On the employment front , 69% of French people believe that ethnic criteria can condition their access (4 points more than the world average) and 24% of French people say they have already had to suffer this discrimination in their professional life. Note that more than half of French people (56%) said they had never felt discriminated against at work because of their ethnic origins.

Regarding education , 63% of French people surveyed believe that race, ethnicity or country of origin determine access to education, while 22% of French people say they have had personal experience.

Finally, if the health crisis has exacerbated certain social inequalities , making access to social assistance essential or even vital in France, 6 out of 10 French people (57%) consider that they have never felt discrimination linked to their ethnic origins when they have wanted to use it - a rate well above the world average (33%).

“The study reveals that more than 2/3 of French people believe a priori that the criteria of origin really influence the possibilities of access to the fundamentals: housing, employment, education… It also shows that nearly a quarter of the respondents states that they have experienced themselves situations in which they consider their origin to have been an obstacle. What can be reassuring, despite this widely shared feeling that origin is decisive in people's lives, is that France is one of the three countries with Japan and Belgium where the gap between perception and experience of the interviewees is the largest. » Emphasizes Yves Bardon, director of the Ipsos Flair Program.

The Coronavirus has widened the gaps

On the face of discrimination , the pandemic has not improved things: 46% of respondents worldwide believe that events in the world during the past year have increased the are differences in opportunities and to access to housing, to education, to employment and / or social services in their country. Conversely, 43% think that the events had no impact on the differences and 12% who even believe that they reduced them.

In detail, 52% of French people (2nd country after Spain at 63%) see in the events of 2020 f actors of aggravation of discrimination , 40% do not find that they have had an impact on them and 9% consider that these inequalities have lost ground .

(Ipsos France)

March 21, 2021

Source: https://www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/1-francais-sur-2-pense-que-la-pandemie-exacerbe-les-discriminations-ethniques

682-43-11/Poll

Youtube Is The Most Popular Online Music Service Among Germans

Which online music services are currently most popular around the world?

As people spent more time at home in the past year, influenced by the corona pandemic, streaming services for information and entertainment purposes were booming. But not only video but also audio streaming was the focus, in the latter case especially podcasts and music streaming. In this context, 35 percent of Germans state that they currently use the YouTube platform, regardless of whether they have free or paid access. This is what respondents aged 18 to 44 say most often (41-42 percent). The streaming portal Spotify only ranks second among all German respondents with 21 percent, but it is more important for the 18 to 29 year olds: Half (50 percent) of that age group state that they currently use Spotify.

 

The International Media Consumption Report 2021 looks, among other things, at the frequency of media consumption and the services used by people worldwide and how listening habits have changed.

YOUTUBE ALSO LEADS IN THE US, SPOTIFY IN THE UK

A look at the data reveals that YouTube is also a world leader as a music streaming platform, even if the portal is mainly known as a video streaming platform. For example, in the United States, more than two in five Americans (44 percent) say they use YouTube to listen to music, most commonly between the ages of 18 and 34. Spotify is used by 27 percent of Americans in the United States. In the UK, on ​​the other hand, Spotify is the most widely used music streaming platform of all Brits, and especially those under the age of 55. This can be seen in Britons aged 18-34, who listen to Spotify more than twice as often as any other music streaming service, even YouTube.

(YouGov Germany)

March 19, 2021

Source: https://yougov.de/news/2021/03/19/youtube-ist-unter-deutschen-beliebtester-online-mu/

682-43-12/Poll

71% Of 14 To 24-Year-Olds State That They Have Good Social Contacts With Friends

It can be seen, for example, that younger people seem to suffer particularly from contact restrictions. The proportion of 14 to 24-year-olds who state that they have good social contacts with friends has decreased by ten percentage points to 71 percent during this period. In terms of contacts with family members, the difference compared to the survey from December 2019 is eight percentage points. Likewise, the proportion of those who can “be there for others” to the desired extent falls in Generation Z by eight percentage points to 52 percent.  

Generation Z feels increasing constraints
I
 nsbesondere young Germans see as compared to the pre-pandemic period highly social change. In December 2019, 71 percent of the younger generation strongly agreed with the statement that they live in peace with their fellow human beings, a year later it is only 60 percent. The strong agreement with the statement “I can express my opinion freely” also fell significantly in this age group from 62 to 55 percent within a year. Only 40 percent compared to 53 percent before the corona outbreak think they live in a country without borders. 

Declining feeling of happiness and increasing fear of the future
In the surveys carried out by the NAWI-D up to 2019, the younger ones always felt happier than the older ones. The listed developments in the factors that influence prosperity in the Corona period are likely to be the reason that this statement is no longer true at the end of 2020. The NAWI-D measures lower levels of satisfaction with happiness in all age groups, but to a much greater extent in younger people. A narrow majority (57%) still say they feel happy, but before Corona it was 69 percent in this group. 

A similar picture emerges when it comes to optimism about future expectations. Despite being less secure in terms of economic factors such as income or jobs, in the past younger people were far less afraid of the future than the average population. However, Corona has fueled these fears, so that the fear of the future in December 2020 among Generation Z is roughly at the level of the other age groups. 

According to Hans-Peter Drews, NAWI-D project manager at Ipsos, this uncertainty is influenced by many factors. “Can school or vocational training or studies even be finished as planned? Are there any jobs to finance a degree? Can an apprenticeship / study course be enriched with valuable internships or stays abroad? Are companies currently even taking on their trainees or are they hiring new employees? Since expectations are important for future real developments, politicians should attach particular importance to this target group in their measures and their communication. "

The young adults are definitely insecure. In December 2020, only 32 percent feel completely free of financial worries, compared to 41 percent in December 2019.

Futurologist Professor Horst Opaschowski therefore warns of irreparable long-term effects: 
“Contact bans, bans on staying and school closings often result in social malnutrition among young people, which also includes deficits in personal development. Relationship problems and fears of attachment in later adulthood cannot be ruled out. The empirically verifiable drastic decline in personal happiness within a year can make listlessness and despondency become chronic - at the expense of initiative and entrepreneurship. The next generation of employees, self-employed and family founders threatens to land in the adolescence trap. After the crisis, she suddenly “had to” plan her adult life without really having lived out her youthfulness. The demands on politics and society can only be as follows: Give young people back their freedom and scope for development as soon as possible. Generation Z should be able to shape their future with confidence and not have to be a generation of missed life opportunities. Generation Z wants to go back to the future! She wants to get her life back and be able to start a life with always new beginnings. Generation Z in the age of pandemics now needs a strong lobby. "

NAWI-DNAWI D

(Ipsos Germany)

18 March 2021

Source: https://www.ipsos.com/de-de/generation-z-hauptverlierer-der-corona-pandemie-zukunftsforscher-opaschowski-warnt-vor

682-43-13/Poll

Finland's Strongest Car Brands

Each year, YouGov compiles a list of the strongest car brands using six different imagers.

When Finns evaluate car brands on six indicators (quality, general image, value for money, willingness to recommend, reputation and satisfaction), Toyota ranks number one.

Automotive Rankings 2021

Toyota is successful in many markets and ranks number one in the rankings, in addition to Finland, including Australia, the United States, Canada and Norway.

Volvo grabs second place in the Finnish rankings and Mercedes-Benz third place. In addition to Mercedes-Benz, several German brands will rise to the TOP10 list. Volkswagen is fourth, Audi fifth and BMW sixth.

Japanese brands can also be found on the list in addition to Toyota, with Honda ranked nineth and Nissan ranked tenth.

Who drives a Toyota?

Toyota owners in Finland

People living in northern or eastern Finland are over-represented in Toyota's owners in relation to the entire population. The gross household income of Toyota owners is also higher than average and more of them are married than average.

Their interest in cars is higher than average and one in four of them (26%) visits car websites at least weekly.

About global listing

YouGov has used a score index to compile the listing. The score index consists of the average of 6 different image components: Quality, General Image, Value for Money, Recommendation, Reputation and Customer Satisfaction, which together give an overview of the overall condition of the brand.

In Finland, BrandIndex compares more than 350 different brands, 31 of which are car brands. Every day, YouGov BrandIndex interviews hundreds of people representing the entire population and asks them about their attitudes towards different brands.

(YouGov Finland)

March 16, 2021

Source: https://yougov.fi/news/2021/03/16/automotive-rankings-2021-Finland/

682-43-14/Poll

Above 50% Vaccination Propensity In Hungary

According to the results of the research series, the proportion of insecure people decreased in all age groups, but while there was a significant shift towards vaccination among those over 40 years of age, the relative proportion of those opposing vaccination among adults up to 39 years of age increased. So despite the steep decline in the average age of those who died as a result of the virus during the third wave, anti-vaccination sentiment has intensified among those under 40 in the past month.

FIGURE: Would you vaccinate yourself with the coronavirus vaccine currently available in Hungary? (on the basis of the adult population, N = 1,000 people)

Willingness to vaccinate
Rejection is highest in the under-30 age group, at 56%, compared to only 32%. Among those over 50, the proportion is just the opposite.

In absolute terms, two-thirds of the population who have received at least one vaccination is over 60, and two-thirds are also women. Half of those who oppose the vaccine are under the age of 40 (although they make up 38% of the adult population), yet vaccination can be measured at the same rate among both sexes.

FIGURE: Proportion of those registered on the official website (based on the vaccinated population, N = 505 people)

Willingness to register
The overall registration rate, measured on the basis of vaccinators, has risen by 16 percentage points to 61% (including those who have already been vaccinated), but there is also significantly more passivity among young people in this area.

In the order of vaccinations set up by the population, health workers are clearly in first place, with one in two compatriots (47%) believing that in a fair system, others can only receive the vaccine after vaccinating those who work on the front line among patients. In contrast to the United Kingdom , which starts mass vaccination against Covid-19 early and is at the forefront of vaccination , in Hungary it is not teachers, kindergarten teachers and other employees of educational institutions who are in the second place, but those over 60 (14%).

FIGURE: In your opinion, which social group should be vaccinated with the coronavirus vaccine in the first place? (on the basis of the adult population, N = 1,000 people)

Expected vaccination sequence

According to the results of the research series in early March, young adults are susceptible not only to those working in health care, but also to those working in education and other public institutions, as well as to older age groups in terms of vaccination order.

- the leader of the now one-year research series, Annamária Földes, summed up his experiences with the vaccination sequence expected by the population.

Primary vaccination among the 60-69 age group is initiated by the youngest in the highest proportion (over 19%) and is equally susceptible to those under 30 working in educational institutions, public institution staff and social care workers. At the same time, people over the age of 60 would bring grocery store staff to the line much higher than average.

FIGURE: In your opinion, which social group should be vaccinated with the coronavirus vaccine in the first place? (on the basis of the adult population, N = 1,000 people)

Vaccination priority as a function of age
Segments of our society such as police officers (4th place for the British), public transport workers, postal workers or even elite athletes have received negligible mention in the list of target groups to be vaccinated in the first place.

Examining the figures for the 12th month of personal protection practice against Covid-19, another trend reversal can be observed. The easing of discipline that characterized last month seems to be slowing down and reversing as a result of the third coronavirus wave.

Although Hungarian society has seemed to be tired in recent months due to increasingly restrictive measures, the resurgent numbers of cases have once again made the population already preparing to open up uncertain. Ipsos has been monitoring the behavior of the population in an epidemic situation in a way that is unique to the market for 12 months now.

FIGURE: Which of the following activities is true for you? (on the basis of adult population, N = 1,000 persons / month)

Personal protection methods
The main experiences of the retrospective analysis of a database that swelled to 12,000 people in one year are as follows:

Wearing a mask

Face-to-face protection was not mandatory in Hungary in the first months of the pandemic. Nevertheless, the data of April last year showed a wear rate of 47%, which, after a gradual increase, reached about twice the level of 90-95% in October. Regardless of the individual demographic factors, such as age, place of residence, education, all segments of the population are regularly wearing masks in Hungary.

Hand washing

Increased hand cleaning and disinfection, similar to the initial phase of a pandemic, is still a more common defense practice for women, but four out of five men make this small effort more often than before. Unlike mask wearing, this phenomenon - thanks to information campaigns - is immediately integrated into the daily routine and is expected to remain with us in the long run, even after the epidemic.

Personal contact, handshake

Similar to the changed hand washing habits, there was an immediate big change in the proportion of personal contacts when the pandemic broke out a year ago. Looking back at the last 12 months, it can be stated that not only in the first period, but also permanently, the older age group, especially those over 60, closed in and reduced the number of contacts and meetings related to their environment and family and friends. This reaction of the population reached another local peak in January, but now it is half as common to avoid contact as a year earlier.

Closely related to the avoidance of meetings was the omission of handshakes and alternative ways of greeting, even at the very beginning of the epidemic period. The greatest indiscipline (similar to the frequency of hand washing) was measured by Ipsos in mid-summer, July. Mainly due to the middle and older age group, this form of protection currently characterizes an average of two-thirds of the population.

Public transport

Avoiding the use of public transport has also proved unsustainable in the long run. After the uncertainty and horror experienced in the first months, the masses returned to this form of transport, partly voluntarily and partly out of compulsion to work. Falling 22 percentage points in one year, an average of 2 out of 5 residents can now afford to avoid public transport. Higher rates can be measured among the elderly, as well as among those with higher education and better earnings. The former is due to lower mobility needs (pensioners), the latter due to a higher proportion of car use (active workers but those traveling by car).

Travel, events

The number of domestic trips as well as event visits fell again at the beginning of the year (also as a result of government measures and central communications) following a temporary respite in August-September . From January to February , discipline eased significantly , a trend that seems to slow down and reverse with the onset of the third wave of illness. The situation of foreign tourism has not improved significantly for 12 months, based on which it can be stated that the market is permanently, permanently reorganized following the pandemic.

(Ipsos Hungary)

March 16, 2021

Source: https://www.ipsos.com/hu-hu/50-felett-az-oltasi-hajlandosag-magyarorszagon

 

NORTH AMERICA

682-43-15/Poll

69 Americans Say It Is Very Important For Federal Law Enforcement Agencies To Find And Prosecute The People Who Broke Into The U.S. Capitol On Jan 6

As the FBI and other federal law enforcement agencies continue to pursue charges against participants in the Jan. 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol, the American public generally expresses strong support for continuing these efforts. Yet there are sizable partisan differences in attitudes about the riot at the Capitol, with Democrats far more likely than Republicans to view prosecution of the rioters as very important and to say that penalties for the rioters are likely to be less severe than they should be.

The survey by Pew Research Center, conducted March 1-7, 2021, among 12,055 U.S. adults who are members of the Center’s nationally representative American Trends Panel, finds a wide majority of Americans (69%) saying it is “very important” for federal law enforcement agencies to find and prosecute the people who broke into the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6. Another 18% say doing this is “somewhat important.” Just 12% say this is not too or not at all important.

Nearly half of Americans (47%) say the criminal penalties that the rioters will receive are likely to be less severe than they should be given what happened, while 22% say the penalties will be more severe than they should be. Only about three-in-ten (29%) expect the punishments will be about right.

The public generally expresses confidence in federal law enforcement agencies to find and prosecute those who broke into the Capitol on Jan. 6. Still, of those who say it is important for these agencies to complete this task, only 20% have a “great deal” of confidence that law enforcement will bring the rioters to justice, while another 48% have a “fair amount” of confidence.

Republicans and Democrats differ sharply over how important it is for law enforcement to prosecute those involved in the Jan. 6 riots and whether criminal penalties will be less severe than deserved. Partisans are less divided over whether federal law enforcement agencies are up to the task of finding and prosecuting participants who scattered across the country after the events that day.

Chart shows partisan divides on whether it is 'very important' to prosecute Capitol rioters and in views of their likely penalties

While large majorities in both parties (95% of Democrats and 79% of Republicans, including those who lean to each party) say it is at least somewhat important that federal law enforcement agencies find and prosecute those responsible for the Jan. 6 riot, Democrats are more intense in their views: Fully 86% of Democrats and independents who lean toward the Democratic Party say finding and prosecuting rioters is very important, compared with half of Republicans and Republican leaners.

Similarly, nearly two-thirds of Democrats (65%) say it is likely that the criminal penalties the rioters receive will be less severe than they should be. Republicans are divided: 37% say they are likely to be more severe than they should be, while 26% expect them to be less severe.

Additionally, Democrats express slightly higher confidence in federal law enforcement to find and prosecute those responsible for what happened at the U.S. Capitol in January. Among Democrats who said it was at least somewhat important to find and prosecute those responsible for the Capitol riots, about seven-in-ten Democrats (71%) say they have a great deal (23%) or fair amount (48%) of confidence in federal law enforcement to do so, compared with 66% of Republicans (18% a great deal and 49% a fair amount).

Chart shows majority of Republicans say too much attention is being paid to the Capitol riot and its impacts

While a plurality of Americans (44%) say the Jan. 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol and its impacts have been getting about the right amount of attention overall, there also are significant differences in these views among Republicans and Democrats.

Many Republicans say the Jan. 6 riots and their aftermath have been getting too much attention (54% say this), which is not a widely shared view among Democrats (8% say too much). By contrast, 40% of Democrats say the riot has been getting too little attention; just 11% of Republicans say the same. About half of Democrats (52%) and a third of Republicans say the riots have gotten about the right amount of attention.

Chart shows sharp partisan differences on whether right-wing and left-wing extremism are major problems in the U.S.

The survey finds that the public expresses more concern about right-wing and left-wing extremism stirring possible violence in the country than either Islamic or Christian extremism. About half of U.S. adults say right-wing extremism (52%) and left-wing extremism (51%) are major problems in the country. Fewer than four-in-ten say violent extremism in the name of Islam (37%) or in the name of Christianity (34%) is a major problem.

Republicans and Democrats are widely divided over which political wing represents the greater threat. About three-quarters of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents (73%) say right-wing extremism is a major problem, while a similar share of Republicans and Republican leaners (76%) say the same about left-wing extremism. Only about three-in-ten Democrats (31%) say left-wing extremism is a major problem, and 29% of Republicans say this about right-wing extremism.

In addition, Republicans (49%) are more likely than Democrats (28%) to say extremism in the name of Islam is a major problem. The reverse is the case for extremism in the name of Christianity: 48% of Democrats say it is a major problem, versus 16% of Republicans.

Reactions to aftermath of the Jan. 6 Capitol riot

Amid continued investigations and congressional hearings into the riots that occurred at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, nearly three-in-ten adults (27%) say there has been too little attention paid to the riots and their impacts. A similar share (28%) says there has been too much attention paid to the events at the Capitol, while a 44% plurality says the riots have received about the right amount of attention.

Chart shows Black adults more likely than Whites and Hispanics to say too little attention has been paid to the Capitol riot

There are differences in these views by race, partisanship and ideology. Among White adults, 44% say about the right amount of attention has been given to the aftermath of the Capitol riots. Roughly a third (34%) say too much focus has been given to the riots, while a smaller share (21%) says too little attention has been paid.

In contrast, Black adults are significantly more likely to say there has been too little attention paid to the riots and its aftermath: 49% of Black adults say there’s been too little, while just 8% say there has been too much focus on the riot.

This racial divide in attitudes is also evident among Democrats and Democratic-leaning adults. While a majority of White Democrats say there has been the right amount of attention paid to the aftermath of the riots (58%), a smaller share of Black Democrats says the same (43%). In fact, more Black Democrats say there has been too little attention given to the riots (50% of Black Democrats vs. 37% of White Democrats).

A majority of Republicans and Republican leaners say there has been too much attention paid to the riot and its impacts (54%). Republicans, unlike Democrats, are divided along ideological lines: 61% of conservative Republicans say the riot and its aftermath have received too much attention, compared with 43% of moderate and liberal Republicans.

Pluralities of Democrats across the ideological spectrum say there has been about the right amount of focus on the Capitol riots and its impacts.

Chart shows most Americans say it is very or somewhat important to find and prosecute the Capitol rioters

While there is broad consensus across demographic groups that it is at least somewhat important for federal law enforcement to find and prosecute those who broke into the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, there is some variation in the degree to which these groups say it is a priority. And while majorities say they have confidence in federal law enforcement agencies to locate and prosecute those involved, relatively small shares express a great deal of confidence that they can do this.

Overall, about eight-in-ten or more adults across demographic groups say it is at least somewhat important for federal law enforcement agencies to seek out those responsible for the Capitol breach (87% overall).

There are racial, ethnic and partisan differences in these views. Black adults are particularly likely to say it is very important for federal law enforcement to penalize those involved (87%); smaller shares of White (66%), Hispanic (69%) and Asian adults (67%) say the same.

There also is a large gap between Republicans and Democrats on the importance of finding and prosecuting those involved in the riots. Just 50% of Republicans say it is very important to find and prosecute those responsible. In contrast, 86% of Democrats say the same.

Chart shows Black adults have less confidence in law enforcement to find, prosecute Jan. 6 rioters

Among adults who say that finding and prosecuting those who broke into the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6 is at least somewhat important, 69% also express at least a fair amount of confidence in federal law enforcement to find and prosecute those responsible for the Capitol breach. Relatively small shares of these adults express a great deal of confidence (20% overall).

Among White adults who view prosecution as important, for example, about seven-in-ten express confidence in federal law enforcement agencies to identify and penalize those involved. But while Black adults are among the most likely to say this is important, they are among the least likely to express confidence in federal law enforcement to do this (60%).

This pattern also holds true among Democrats and Democratic leaners who say it is important to prosecute those who broke into the . Nearly eight-in-ten White Democrats (79%) express confidence in federal law enforcement to bring the Capitol rioters to justice, while just 63% of Black Democrats say the same.

Looking back at Trump’s impeachment and acquittal

About a month after former President Donald Trump was acquitted in his second impeachment trial in the Senate, which focused on his conduct leading up to the U.S. Capitol riot, just over half of Americans (52%) say Trump’s conduct was wrong, and he should have been convicted by the Senate. About three-in-ten say his conduct was not wrong, and he should not have been impeached, while 15% say his conduct was wrong, but he should not have been convicted by the Senate.

Just as Republicans and Democrats were at odds over whether Trump was responsible for the rioting at the Capitol in early January, partisans view the results of the impeachment trial in very different ways.

Chart shows about half of Americans say Trump should have been convicted by Senate for his role in Jan. 6 Capitol riot

Nearly two-thirds of Republicans and GOP leaners (65%) say Trump’s conduct was not wrong and he should not have been impeached by the House of Representatives. Nearly a quarter (23%) say his conduct was wrong, but senators should not have voted to convict him. And only 11% of Republicans say that his conduct was wrong, and he should have been convicted by the Senate.

In stark contrast, an overwhelming majority of Democrats and Democratic leaners (87%) say Trump’s conduct was wrong, and the Senate should have voted to convict him. Just 9% say his conduct was wrong but he should not have been convicted; another 4% say his conduct was not wrong.

Though Republicans and Democrats express opposing views about several aspects of the rioting that occurred at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, there are stark divisions among Republicans on these issues. Republicans who in January expressed the view that Trump was the rightful winner of the 2020 presidential election are much more likely than those who say Biden won the 2020 election to view the riot as overblown and Trump’s impeachment as unjustified.

Chart shows fewer than half of Republicans who said previously that Trump had won the 2020 election now say it is very important to prosecute the Capitol rioters

In January 2021, when asked which candidate won the 2020 presidential election, 64% of Republicans and Republican leaners said that Trump definitely (33%) or probably (31%) received the most votes cast by eligible voters in enough states to win the presidential election. Only about a third (34%) said correctly that Biden was the rightful winner.

Republicans who said Trump definitely or probably won the election earlier this year are nearly twice as likely as Republicans who said Biden definitely or probably won to now say the riots at the Capitol have received too much attention (66% of Republicans who say Trump won vs. 35% of Republicans who say Biden won). Similarly, while 62% of Republicans who said Biden won now say that it is very important that federal law enforcement agencies find and prosecute those who broke into the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, fewer than half of Republicans who said Trump won now say prosecution is very important.

This pattern is also evident in views of the punishments that rioters are likely to receive. Republicans who said Biden won in the prior survey are now significantly less likely than Republicans who said Trump won to think the criminal penalties that rioters will receive are likely to be more severe than they should be (27% vs. 45%, respectively).

One of the largest gaps that divides Republicans who said Trump won and Republicans who said Biden won is on views of Trump’s impeachment as a result of his conduct leading up to events on Jan. 6: Fully 82% of Republicans who said Trump won the election say his conduct was not wrong, and that the House should not have voted to impeach him. This compares with just 26% of Republicans who said Biden won the 2020 election.

Views of violent extremism

When it comes to the possibility of violent extremism in the country, Americans are more likely to say political extremism represents a greater problem than other forms of extremism inspired by religion.

Chart shows right-wing and left-wing extremism are viewed more widely as major problems than Islamic or Christian extremism

About half of the public says right-wing extremism is a major problem (52%), another third say it is a minor problem and 12% say it is not a problem. The public’s overall views of left-wing extremism are similar: 51% say it is a major problem, 34% say minor problem and 13% say not a problem.

The shares saying extremism inspired by Islam or Christianity are major problems are far lower. Slightly fewer than four-in-ten adults (37%) say extremism inspired by Islam is a major problem, while 44% say it is a minor problem and 16% say it is not a problem. About a third of Americans (34%) say extremism in the name of Christianity is a major problem, with 35% saying it is a minor problem and 29% say it is not a problem.

While far more Republicans view left-wing extremism as a major problem than right-wing extremism – and the opposite is true among Democrats – large majorities in both parties say right-wing and left-wing extremism are major or minor problems.

Chart shows in both parties, most say right-wing and left-wing extremism are major or minor problems

Among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, only about three-in-ten (29%) say violent right-wing extremism is a major problem for the country, but about half (49%) say it is a minor problem. Just two-in-ten say it is not a problem.

Views among Democrats and Democratic leaners of left-wing extremism follow a similar pattern: About three-in-ten (31%) say left-wing extremist violence is a major problem, about half say it is a minor problem (48%) and just 19% say it is not a problem.

Both Republicans and Democrats broadly acknowledge that violent extremism inspired by Islam is at least a minor problem in the country (88% of Republicans and 78% of Democrats say this). However, Republicans are more likely than Democrats to view Islamic extremism as a major problem (49% of Republicans vs. 28% of Democrats).

They also differ on whether extremism inspired by Christianity is a problem for the country: 83% of Democrats say Christian extremism is at least a minor problem (including 48% saying it is a major problem), yet only about half of Republicans (51%) say it is at least a minor problem (with just 16% saying major problem). Nearly half of Republicans (47%) say extremism in the name of Christianity is not a problem in the country today.

Chart shows Republicans and Democrats are divided internally by ideology over political and religious extremism

In both parties, there are ideological differences in attitudes about the threat posed by violent extremism. For example, a larger share of liberal Democrats (83%) than conservative and moderate Democrats (66%) say right-wing extremism is a major problem. By contrast, conservative Republicans are more likely than moderate and liberal Republicans to say that left-wing extremism is a major problem.

Moderates and liberals in the GOP also are more likely than conservative Republicans to see right-wing extremism (39% to 23%) as a major problem. And conservative and moderate Democrats similarly diverge from liberals in their party in views of left-wing extremism (41% of conservative and moderate Democrats say major problem vs. 18% of liberals).

There are similar patterns across ideological groups in their views of religious extremism – though the differences are generally smaller. Fewer moderate and liberal Republicans than conservative Republicans say extremism in the name of Islam is a major problem (42% vs. 53%) and more say extremism inspired by Christianity is a major problem (23% vs. 12%). The patterns are similar but reversed among Democrats: Fewer conservative and moderate Democrats than liberal Democrats say Christian extremists are a major problem (38% vs. 59%), but more moderate and liberal Democrats say Islamic extremists are a major problem (34% vs. 21%).

Knowledge of QAnon and views of its supporters

A majority of Americans (61%) report knowing at least something about the QAnon conspiracy theories, while about four-in-ten (39%) say they know “nothing at all” about them. Few U.S. adults say they know “a lot” (3%), while 29% say they know “some” and the same share say they know “not much.”

Chart shows Republicans more likely than Democrats to say they know ‘nothing at all’ about QAnon

Democrats and independents who lean toward the Democratic Party (68%) are more likely than Republicans and Republican leaners (54%) to say they know something about the QAnon conspiracy theories. Nearly half of Republicans (45%) say they know nothing at all about them; about three-in-ten Democrats (31%) say the same.

Liberal Democrats report the highest levels of knowledge about QAnon. Half of liberal Democrats know a lot (7%) or some (44%) about it, and another 28% say they know not much. The next most knowledgeable groups are conservative and moderate Democrats (61% know something, including 32% who know some or a lot) and conservative Republicans (60% know something, including 25% some or a lot). The least knowledgeable partisans are Republicans with moderate or liberal political views – among this group, a majority say they know nothing at all about these conspiracy theories (54%) and fewer than a quarter know a lot or some (22%).

Chart shows views of QAnon supporters are overwhelmingly unfavorable, though intensity varies among partisans

Few Americans who know at least something about QAnon have favorable views of people who support the conspiracy theories. Just 13% of those who know about QAnon have favorable views of its supporters, while 84% have unfavorable views (including 60% whose views are very unfavorable).

Those who say their views of QAnon supporters are favorable are concentrated among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. About a quarter of Republicans who know about QAnon say they view its supporters favorably (24%) – though just 5% say their views are very favorable, compared with 19% who say somewhat favorable. Fewer than one-in-ten Democrats and Democratic leaners (6%) have favorable views of QAnon supporters.

Most Republicans and Democrats say they view people who support these conspiracy theories unfavorably, though Democrats are harsher in their judgments. Fully 82% of Democrats who know about QAnon say they have very unfavorable views of supporters, versus 28% Republicans who share this view. About four-in-ten Republicans who know about QAnon (42%) have somewhat unfavorable views of QAnon supporters; 12% of Democrats say the same.

(PEW)

MARCH 18, 2021

Source: https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/03/18/large-majority-of-the-public-views-prosecution-of-capitol-rioters-as-very-important/

AUSTRALIA

682-43-16/Poll

Toyota Tops YouGov Australia’s 2021 Automotive Rankings

Toyota tops YouGov’s 2021 Automotive Rankings for Australia with an Index score of +43.9, making it the car brand with the best overall brand health according to Australians.

The rankings are compiled using YouGov BrandIndex Index score, a measure of overall brand health calculated by taking the average of Impression, Quality, Value, Satisfaction, Recommend and Reputation scores. The rankings are measured from 1 February 2020 to 31 January 2021. 

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/k2mvft4r8t/AutomotiveRankings2021-au.png

Toyota tops the charts in every metric, particularly for Value (which measures which brand consumers see to be of most value-for-money), with a score of +44.8 – with the next closest brand being Mazda with a score of +28.1. Toyota also smokes the rest of the competition when it comes to their Recommend score (+46.0), followed by Mazda trailing 17.6 points with a score of (+28.4). 

Half of the top ten brands are Japanese, and they make up the top three the list. In second place is Mazda (+27.5), which also comes in second for not only for Value and Recommend but also for General Impression (+35.4), Satisfaction (+14.4). Honda rounds up the top three (+23.7). 

German brands Mercedes-Benz (+23.0) and BMW (+22.5) take fourth and fifth respectively. While Mercedes-Benz comes is fourth place overall, it takes second for Quality (+42.1) and Reputation (+36.8) (which measures the corporate reputation of a brand by asking which brands consumers would be proud of working for). BMW follows Mercedes-Benz, coming in third overall for Reputation (+35.2) and Quality (+40.9). 

In sixth place is the only South Korean brand to make the list is Hyundai (+19.7), followed by German brand Audi in seventh (+17.2). 

Japanese brands Nissan (+17.2) is in eighth and Subaru (+16.6) in ninth. The list is wrapped up with American brand Ford in tenth (+16.3). While Ford comes in tenth, it stands out with its Satisfaction score – coming in third (+12.2) on that metric, indicating that Ford customers are more likely to be satisfied with their vehicles.  

(YouGov Australia)

March 16, 2021

Source: https://au.yougov.com/news/2021/03/16/toyota-tops-yougov-australias-2021-automotive-rank/

682-43-17/Poll

73.7% Of Australians Holding Private Health Insurance Are Satisfied

The report is based on interviews with almost 25,000 policy-holders, and tracks rolling monthly averages up to December 2020. It shows that satisfaction across the funds as a whole was up by 0.5% from the previous month, November 2020, and up by 1.8% on a year earlier, December 2019. Many health funds offered assistance including payment pauses or reduced premiums during 2020 to members under financial stress as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. However a number of funds also increased their premiums.

The best-performing private health insurers had customer satisfaction levels well above the overall industry average. In top position was Health Partners on 91.6%. It was followed by Defence Health (on 88.6%), CUA Health (87.0%), Latrobe Health Services (86.9%) and Westfund (86.5%). Of these five, CUA Health is the only for-profit fund (its parent company, CUA bank, is a mutual organisation).

Australia’s largest fund by market share, Medibank Private, had a satisfaction rating of 69.8%, one of the lowest of the more than two dozen funds measured. BUPA, which is a close second in terms of market share, had a slightly higher score of 71.5%. Each of those funds has more than twice as many members as the next largest fund, HCF, which had a customer satisfaction rating of 75%.

With many health insurance members facing another premium rise in April 2021, Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says customer satisfaction is a crucial measure for health funds because of its close link to member retention, as the percentage of Australians with private health cover continues to shrink.

“As of December 2020, 43.9% of Australians hold at least some private health insurance, in the form of basic hospital cover. This is only a marginal fall from the 44% who had it a year earlier, but it’s a continuation of the steady decline seen over the past seven years, from the 47% who held it in December 2013.

“Looking at the latest retention rate data from the Commonwealth Ombudsman (2019-2020 financial year), the link between customer satisfaction and customer retention is crystal clear. Health Partners, the top performer in our ‘Customer Satisfaction: Private Health Insurance’ report, has with a satisfaction rating of 91.6%. Its member retention rate is 90%. This compares to Medibank Private, with a satisfaction rating of 69.8% and a retention rate of 75%. 

“The days when a dissatisfied customer would stay with a health fund because it was too much trouble to change are long gone. Unhappy customers vote with their feet … and their hard-earned dollars. It’s true you can’t please all the people all the time and this is an issue the largest funds grapple with, as their ratings demonstrate. 

“Health funds get feedback on how their own customers feel about them, but feelings about their competitors are at least as important, which is one of the key reasons our independent reporting is so useful right across the industry.”

Private Health Insurance Customer Satisfaction – Top 5

https://www.roymorgan.com/~/media/files/morgan%20poll/2020s/2021/march/8663-c1.png?h=654&w=1026&la=en(Roy Morgan)

March 17 2021

Source: https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8663-phi-satisfaction-december-2020-202103150535

682-43-18/Poll

Movement Of People In Melbourne Cbd Is At 39% Of Normal One Year After The First Covid Lockdown

Movement in the Melbourne CBD during mid-March 2021 was at an average of only 39% of the pre-COVID-19 levels of movement during January and February 2020. The good news is that this level of movement on working days since the Labour Day holiday (Monday March 8, 2021) is the highest in the Melbourne CBD since mid-June 2020 just before Melbourne entered its second lockdown.

Movement levels in the Sydney CBD have tracked lower than smaller cities over the last year as the city has dealt with a series of outbreaks – although without a second city-wide lockdown – and were at 47% in mid-March. This is the highest level of movement for the Sydney CBD since mid-December 2020 when movement levels touched a high of 50% just before outbreaks of COVID-19 in Berala in Western Sydney and Avalon in Sydney’s Northern Beaches.

The Adelaide CBD has been the standout performer over the last two months with movement levels in mid-March now at 83% of the pre-COVID-19 levels and above 70% since the start of February. Movement levels in the Adelaide CBD have averaged more than 10% higher than either Brisbane CBD, Perth CBD or Hobart CBD during the last two months.

Australian Capital City CBDs average 7-day movement levels March 2020 – March 2021:
% Movement is compared to the 7-day average in Jan-Feb 2020

https://www.roymorgan.com/~/media/files/morgan%20poll/2020s/2021/march/8667-c1.png?la=enSource: Roy Morgan collaboration with UberMedia who provide anonymous aggregated insights using mobile location data. Note: Movement data for the Capital City CBDs excludes the residents of the respective CBDs.

Roy Morgan has partnered with leading technology innovator UberMedia to aggregate data from tens of thousands of mobile devices to assess the movements of Australians as we deal with the restrictions imposed in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The interactive dashboard available tracks the movement data for those visiting the Capital City CBDs during 2020, excluding the CBD residents of each city. Movement data from several key locations around Australia is also available to view by using the interactive dashboard.

Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says a year after the COVID-19 pandemic began and led to an Australian nation-wide lockdown in March/April 2020 movement in Australian Capital City CBDs is still well down on pre-pandemic levels:

“A year into the COVID-19 pandemic there are positive signs that Australians are returning to a sense of normality however the daily movement of people in Australia’s Capital City CBDs remains down on average levels prior to the pandemic.

“The requirement to work from home, which is still in operation in many parts of Australia, had the biggest impact on CBD office workers and led to huge declines in the number of people commuting to work in the CBDs over the past year.

“Hardest hit has been the Melbourne CBD which has been through three lockdowns totaling over six months duration since mid-March 2020. The long second lockdown between July-October 2020 hit the city particularly hard and even today movement in the Melbourne CBD is only at 39% of pre-COVID-19 levels – easily the lowest of any of the Capital City CBDs.

“Also struggling to regain the its pre-pandemic levels of movement is the Sydney CBD which sits at 47% in mid-March, and still below the levels of mid-December prior to the Avalon outbreak on Sydney’s Northern Beaches which sent movement plunging over the Christmas/New Year period.

“Other cities have fared better despite short and sharp lockdowns in Adelaide, Perth and Brisbane over the last few months these cities are closest to pre-pandemic levels of movement with the Adelaide CBD on 83% leading the Perth CBD (72%) and Brisbane CBD (68%).

“The emphasis of a ‘return-to-normal’ is particularly important as Australian businesses confront the end of the JobKeeper wage subsidy at the end of this month. Comparing movement levels in the Melbourne CBD (39% of pre-COVID-19 averages) to locations in suburban areas of Melbourne such as Williamstown (71%), Glen Waverley (72%) and Cheltenham (61%) also shows how CBD areas have been hit the hardest with the lockdowns and restrictions.

“The severity of the downturn impacting the Melbourne CBD and Sydney CBD because of Federal Government and State Government policies (including the ban on international travel), provides a good argument for local authorities to take to higher levels of Government to request targeted support beyond the aviation, travel and tourism sectors as presently outlined.”

(Roy Morgan)

March 19 2021

Source: https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8667-roy-morgan-ubermedia-covid-19-movement-capital-cities-march-2021-202103190549

 

MULTICOUNTRY STUDIES

682-43-19/Poll

Global Consumer Confidence Getting Closer To Pre-Pandemic Level

Washington, DC, March 17, 2021 - At 44.7, this month’s Ipsos Global Consumer Confidence Index is up by eight-tenths of a point over last month, marking a new high since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic a year ago.
The Global Consumer Confidence Index is the average of 24 world markets’ National Indices. It is based on a monthly survey of more than 17,500 adults under the age of 75 conducted on Ipsos’ Global Advisor online platform. This survey was fielded between February 19 and March 5, 2021.
Six of the 24 surveyed markets show significant growth in their National Index when compared to February 2021: Great Britain (+3.6), the United States (+2.2), Belgium (+1.8), Canada (+1.7), Japan (+1.7), and Turkey (+1.6). Meanwhile, not a single market has experienced a significant drop, defined as 1.5 index points or more.

National Index Trends

Roughly one year after the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic on March 11, 2020, the Global Consumer Confidence Index comes in at 44.7, about four points below where it was then (48.5) as well as a couple of months earlier, in January 2020 (48.7), just before the world had heard of the coronavirus. With a 0.8-point uptick over February 2021’s reading, the index shows a monthly increase for the fourth straight month.

  • With a National Index above 50, China (71.8), Saudi Arabia (62.9), India (56.9), Sweden (55.9), Australia (55.4), the United States (52.5), and Germany (51.9) are the highest indexing markets surveyed.
  • Just two markets have a National Index below 35: South Africa (34.7) and Turkey (33.6). Neither country’s index has surpassed 35 since early 2020 (April and March, respectively).
  • Although Great Britain’s National Index continues to trail that of other countries, it shows significant growth this month. It is up 3.6 points to 48.4, just 1.8 points below its January 2020 level (50.2).

Graph

Expectations, Jobs, and Investment Index Trends

The Expectations, Jobs, and Investment Indices all display growth since February 2021. Among the 24 markets surveyed, Great Britain and the United States post significant gains for each index.  

  • The global Jobs Index is up slightly, with a month-on-month gain of 0.8 point to 49.8, but it still trails its January 2020 reading by 6.6 points. Great Britain and Turkey show the largest growth in their Jobs Index since last month, and no country posts a significant decline. However, China (+3.7) is the only market whose Jobs Index now surpasses its January 2020 reading.
  • The global Investment Index currently reads at 39.2, up 0.7 point from last month. Great Britain, the United States, and Belgium all post increases of more than 2 points. At the same time, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, and Hungary display month-on-month deficits.
  • The global Expectations Index, indicative of consumers’ outlook on their local economy, financial situation, and employment rings in at 55.5. It displays the largest gain across indices and trails its January 2020 reading by just 1.5 points. As with the Jobs Index, none of the markets surveyed show a significant drop in their Expectations Index over last month. Great Britain posts the greatest month-on-month increase of 5.1 points.

SPREADSHEET

About the Study

These findings are based on data from Refinitiv /Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) collected in a monthly survey of consumers from 24 markets via Ipsos’ Global Advisor online survey platform. For this survey, Ipsos interviews a total of 17,500+ adults aged 18-74 in the United States of America, Canada, Israel, Turkey, South Africa; and age 16-74 in all other markets each month. The monthly sample consists of 1,000+ individuals in each of Australia, Brazil, Canada, China (mainland), France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, Great Britain, and the U.S., and 500+ individuals in each of Argentina, Belgium, Hungary, India, Israel, Mexico, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Sweden, and Turkey.
Data collected each month are weighted so that each country’s sample composition best reflects the demographic profile of the adult population according to the country’s most recent census data. Data collected each month are also weighted to give each country an equal weight in the total “global” sample. Online surveys can be taken as representative of the general working-age population in Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Poland, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, and the United States. Online samples in Brazil, mainland China, India, Israel, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and Turkey are more urban, more educated, and/or more affluent than the general population and the results should be viewed as reflecting the views of a more “connected” population.
Sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. The precision of the Refinitiv/Ipsos online surveys is measured using a Bayesian Credibility Interval. Here, the poll has a credibility interval of +/- 2.0 points for countries where the 3-month sample is 3,000+ and +/- 2.9 points for countries where the 3-month sample is 1,500+. Please click here for more information.
The publication of these findings abides by local rules and regulations.
The results reported each month in the Refinitiv/Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index are based only on that month’s data (hence, the base for each country is 500+ or 1,000+) and comparisons are made against results from other months which are also each based on one month’s data. In contrast, the results reported any given month in Ipsos’s Global Consumer Confidence at-a-Glance are based on data collected not only that month, but also during the two previous months and consist of past 3-month “rolling averages”. This technique allows for tripling the sample size for each metric. Hence, the base for any country ranges from 1,500+ to 3,000+. This increases the reliability of the findings and the statistical significance of reported variations over time, However, to heighten the freshness of the findings reported any given month, the data from the same month is given a weight of 45%, the data from the previous month a lesser weight of 35%, and the data from the earliest of the three months an even lesser weight of 20%.
The Refinitiv/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI), ongoing since 2010, is a monthly survey of consumer attitudes on the current and future state of local economies, personal finance situations, savings, and confidence to make large investments. The PCSI metrics reported each month for each of the 24 countries surveyed consist of a “Primary Index” based on all 11 questions below and of several “sub-indices” each based on a subset of these 11 questions. Those sub-indices include an Expectations Index; Investment Index; and, Jobs Index.

(Ipsos Egypt)

17 March 2021

Source: https://www.ipsos.com/en-eg/global-consumer-confidence-getting-closer-pre-pandemic-level

682-43-20/Poll

81% Of Spanish Mothers And Fathers Feel Judged By Others

The impact of the coronavirus has caused the number of monthly births in Spain to plummet to the lowest levels since 1941 according to the National Institute of Statistics (INE). However, being a mother or father has never been an easy task, and it can get even more complicated if they feel judged. Feeling judged on how they develop parenthood can affect parents' mental health, which has been shown to harm children's development in turn.

Aware of this problem, Ipsos has carried out a study in 28 countries to analyze public opinion on this issue and also to know the importance that parents attach to the earliest stages in the development of their children. 

On a global average, 82% parents interviewed in the countries where the study was carried out, feel judged. A percentage very similar to that of Spain, where 81% of parents feel questioned about their parenting method . Positioning itself as the third country in Europe that feels the most judged in this regard, only behind Poland (91%) and the United Kingdom and Hungary (both with 83%). Germany, Holland and France, all of them with the same percentage (77%), are the Europeans who feel less questioned. 

Parents who feel judged indicate the way in which their children behave as the main reason why they are questioned , with a global average of 46%; and the way in which they manage their children's behavior is ranked as the second cause (39%). It should be noted that Spanish parents are the ones who feel least judged for this reason compared to the rest of the countries. 

This perception that parents have of being judged may be something that is only part of their perception, which is not real, but when we ask people who do not have children, whether they really question the parents' way of raising, the data they maintain a similar proportion globally, 81% affirm that they do . Therefore, the perception of the parents is a reality.

In Spain, this percentage represents 76%, which places Spain among the European countries where parents are least judged , only behind the Netherlands (74%) and Germany (63%). For their part, the United Kingdom (87%), Hungary (86%) and Sweden (85%) top the list of European countries where parents are judged the most. 

Furthermore, the reasons that lead to questioning parents coincide with those that they themselves indicate and that we have mentioned above, although in the reverse order: the way in which parents manage their children's behavior (59%) is the most judged motive, followed by the way children behave (57%). Globally, the United States is the country where both factors have the highest incidence (76% and 73% respectively. 

The importance of the first years in the development of children

There is scientific consensus that the period from conception to five years of life is critical to laying the foundation for future physical and mental health, as well as overall well-being and productivity of a person. However, this study shows that this fact is not recognized in the 28 countries surveyed. The first years are not considered especially important compared to other periods of life, in fact only 18% of citizens, on a global average, consider this stage as the most important . If we look at the data for Spain, we see how it is the second country at a global level and the first at a European level, which gives less relevance to this period, with only 8% of the population supporting it.

In contrast, the most consensual answer at the global level is that all stages of life are equally important (35%). Spain tops the list of European countries , only behind Sweden (45%), where this idea is most supported (38%), sharing the same percentage with the Netherlands and Hungary. It is followed by the United Kingdom (37%), Italy (37%) and Poland (36%).

At a global level there is an overwhelming consensus that the development of children in their first stage of life (up to 5 years) is not determined so much by genetics as by the environment in which they live. 45% of Spaniards reflect this, a percentage that at a European level only surpasses Italy (53%) and Poland (48%).

Finally, when it comes to who is responsible for ensuring that children in their early years can enjoy a good quality of life in terms of health and happiness, there is no consensus among the countries surveyed. At a global level, responsibility falls on both parents and society (41%), followed by parental responsibility (40%) and, to a lesser extent, society (13%). At the country level we can see how there are two differentiated blocks, those where a greater responsibility falls on parents, although the weight of society is also relevant. In this first block we find countries such as Poland, the USA, Australia, the United Kingdom, Sweden, and Canada. At the other extreme, where responsibility is more shared between parents and society, we find eastern countries (South Korea, Japan, China) but also European countries such as Italy, Hungary, Belgium, Germany and Spain. In fact, Spain leads together with Sweden (16%), the list of countries where more weight falls on the figure of society as responsible for ensuring a good quality of life for children in their early years.

(Ipsos Spain)

March 17, 2021

Source: https://www.ipsos.com/es-es/un-81-de-las-madres-y-padres-espanoles-se-sienten-juzgados-por-los-demas

682-43-21/Poll

After Covid-19: Putting People Before Politics Is Key To Recovery

This is the most important result from an online Ipsos Global Advisor study conducted from 22 January 2021 to 5 February 2021. A total of 20,520 adults in 28 countries were asked about what they expect from political leaders.

In another part of this study, results show that citizens all over the world think that politicians are paid too much for what they do, so what do they then expect from politicians?

Mentioned by a third of people (33%) and equally likely to be picked out by men and women, the most important quality that people want from their political leaders in order to be considered to do a good job in handling the recovery from the pandemic is to put their country’s needs before politics.

This is followed by being honest with the public (29%), understanding the problems facing ordinary people (28%), taking into account the impact on the economy as well as on health (25%) and making the right decisions at the right time (25%).

Women are slightly more likely to pick out the following over men:

  • For political leaders to understand the problems facing ordinary people (30% for women vs 26% for men);
  • To take into account the impact on the economy as well as health (27% for women vs 22% for men); and
  • To act quickly to protect people in their country (26% for women vs 22% for men).

Looking at the results from all 28 countries, South Africans felt the strongest of all about wanting their politicians to regard the country’s needs as a priority above politics. This sentiment was shared by more than half (51%) of online South Africans.

South Africans felt the strongest of all about wanting their politicians to regard the country’s needs as a priority above politics. This sentiment was shared by more than half of online South Africans

Technical Detail:

  • These are the results of a 28-country survey conducted by Ipsos on its Global Advisor online platform. Ipsos interviewed a total of 20,520 adults aged 18-74 in the United States, Canada, Israel, Malaysia, South Africa, and Turkey, and 16-74 in 21 other markets between 22 January and 5 February 2021.
  • The sample consists of approximately 1,000 individuals in each of Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, mainland China, France, Germany, Great Britain, Italy, Japan, Spain, and the U.S., and 500 individuals in each of Argentina, Chile, Hungary, Hong Kong, India, Israel, Malaysia, Mexico, the Netherlands, Peru, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Sweden, and Turkey.
  • The samples in Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Poland, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, and the U.S. can be taken as representative of their general adult population under the age of 75.
  • The samples in Brazil, Chile, mainland China, India, Israel, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and Turkey are more urban, more educated, and/or more affluent than the general population. The survey results for these markets should be viewed as reflecting the views of the more “connected” segment of their population.
  • The data is weighted so that each country’s sample composition best reflects the demographic profile of the covered adult population according to the most recent census data.
  • Where results do not sum to 100 or the difference appears to be +/-1 more/less than the actual, this may be due to rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of “don't know” or not stated responses.
  • The precision of Ipsos online polls is calculated using a credibility interval with a poll of 1,000 accurate to +/- 3.5 percentage points and of 500 accurate to +/- 5.0 percentage points. For more information on Ipsos' use of credibility intervals, please visit the Ipsos website. The publication of these findings abides by local rules and regulations.

(Ipsos South Africa)

18 March 2021

Source: https://www.ipsos.com/en-za/after-covid-19-putting-people-politics-key-recovery

682-43-22/Poll

The Pandemic Stalls Growth In The Global Middle Class, Pushes Poverty Up Sharply

The COVID-19 pandemic is having a deep effect on the global economy. In January 2020, as reports of the novel coronavirus were emerging, the World Bank forecasted that the global economy would expand by 2.5% that year. In January 2021, with the pandemic still holding much of the world in its grip, the World Bank estimated that the global economy contracted by 4.3% in 2020, a turnabout of 6.8 percentage points.

Chart showing the COVID-19 downturn curbed growth in the global middle class, increased poverty sharply in 2020

The economic downturn is likely to have diminished living standards around the world, pushing millions out of the global middle class and swelling the ranks of the poor. At the same time, the path to a recovery is clouded with uncertainties.

A new Pew Research Center analysis finds that the global middle class encompassed 54 million fewer people in 2020 than the number projected prior to the onset of the pandemic. Meanwhile, the number of poor is estimated to have been 131 million higher because of the recession.

The drop-off in the global middle class was centered in South Asia and in East Asia and the Pacific, and it stalled the expansion seen in the years preceding the pandemic. South Asia, specifically India, along with Sub-Saharan Africa, accounted for most of the increase in poverty, reversing years of progress on this front.

As defined in this report (and in previous Pew Research Center analyses), people who are middle income live on $10.01-$20 a day, which translates to an annual income of about $14,600 to $29,200 for a family of four. This is modest by the standards of advanced economies. In fact, it straddles the official poverty line in the United States – about $23,000 for a family of four in 2020 (expressed in 2011 prices). By global standards, the poor live on $2 or less a day, or no more than $2,920 annually for a family of four.

The number of people in the global high-income tier (more than $50 daily) is estimated to have decreased by 62 million in 2020, erasing about half of the gain since 2011, with most of the change emanating from advanced economies. Meanwhile, the upper-middle income population ($20.01-$50 daily) fell by 36 million, while the low-income population ($2.01-$10 daily) is estimated to have increased by 21 million.

Who is middle class (or middle income)?

This report uses the terms “middle income” and “middle class” interchangeably, a common practice among economists who tend to define the middle class in terms of income or consumption. But being middle class can connote more than income, be it a college education, white-collar work, economic security, owning a home, or having certain social and political values. Class could also simply be a matter of self-identification. The interplay among these many factors is examined in studies by Hout (2007) and Savage et al. (2013), among others.

The population in each global region is divided into five groups: poor, low income, middle income, upper-middle income and high income. The poor live on $2 or less daily, low income on $2.01-$10, middle income on $10.01-$20, upper-middle income on $20.01-$50 and high income on more than $50. All dollar figures are expressed in 2011 prices and purchasing power parity dollars, currency exchange rates adjusted for differences in the prices of goods and services across countries.

The assignment to a group, or income tier, is based on a household’s daily per capita income or consumption, a simple way of controlling for differences in household size. In the source data, some countries only report income data while others only report consumption data. The terms “income” and “consumption” are used interchangeably for the sake of convenience.

A middle-income, or middle-class, threshold of $10 follows the practice of other researchers. A similar threshold has been used by the World Bank (20072015), researchers at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (Kharas, 2010), the development community (Birdsall, Lustig and Meyer, 2013) and others. There is evidence that the $10 threshold, which is about five times higher than the World Bank’s global poverty line, is associated with economic security and “insulates” people from falling back into poverty. An earlier Pew Research Center report discusses the choice of income thresholds in greater detail.

The global middle-class standard is modest by the standards of advanced economies. In 2020, the official poverty line for a family of four in the U.S. stood at about $15.90 per person per day (in 2011 prices). Thus, many who are poor by the U.S. definition would meet the global middle-income standard or, conversely, many who are in the global middle class would be poor by U.S. standards.

Chart showing that globally, most are either poor or low income, and the pandemic likely drove the numbers higher in 2020

These estimates are based on the Center’s analysis of World Bank data on the distribution of people by either income or consumption levels in seven major global regions. The latest available estimates of income for each region, such as for 2018 for Europe and Central Asia and 2015 for the Middle East and North Africa, are extrapolated to 2020 using two sets of growth estimates: the forecasts issued by the World Bank in January 2020, prior to the pandemic, and the estimates issued in January 2021, with the pandemic’s economic impact in plainer sight. The difference between these two measures is taken to represent the impact of the COVID-19 downturn on the standard of living of people globally.

Prior to the emergence of COVID-19, some 1.38 billion people were expected to be counted in the global middle class in 2020. But the pandemic is estimated to have driven this number down to 1.32 billion. The share of people in the middle class globally is estimated to have been 17.1% in 2020, instead of potentially 17.8%. The erosion in the middle class might have been deeper if not for the fact that China – which is home to more than one-third of the global middle class – evaded an economic contraction, even though growth there was slower than anticipated.

The number of global poor is estimated to have risen to 803 million in 2020, much greater than the 672 million initially expected. The global poverty rate, which had been in steady decline this century, is likely to have increased to 10.4%, nearly reverting to the rate in 2017, instead of sinking to a new low of 8.7%, as previously expected.

The steep rise in global poverty is driven by the fact that many who were in the low-income tier prior to the pandemic lived on the margin of poverty. In 2017, 877 million people lived on $2 to $3 a day, according to World Bank estimates. Thus, large numbers were susceptible to falling back into poverty prior to the pandemic, especially in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa.

At the other end of the economic spectrum, the global high-income population likely fell to 531 million in 2020 from the 593 million originally expected. Consequently, the expected share in the high-income tier is 6.8%, not 7.6%. A vast majority of the global high-income population lives in advanced economies, and this group of countries also experienced a sharp downturn in 2020. Ironically, this bolstered the global middle-income population as people in advanced economies slipped down the ladder from higher income tiers.  

Chart showing that the global middle class expanded rapidly from 2011 to 2019, and poverty fell sharply

The reversal in global living standards in 2020 comes on the heels of notable progress earlier in the decade. From 2011 to 2019, the global middle-class population increased from 899 million to 1.34 billion, or by 54 million people annually, on average. The pandemic is estimated to have erased a year of growth, leaving the global middle-class population nearly unchanged from 2019 to 2020.

Global poverty had abated at an average rate of 49 million annually from 2011 to 2019, with the number of global poor falling from 1.10 billion to 691 million during this period. The pandemic, by adding 131 million to the ranks of the poor, has set the progress on poverty back by several years, and the poverty rate is estimated to have increased from 9.0% in 2019 to 10.4% in 2020.

From 2011 to 2019, the global high-income population had increased from 459 million to 576 million, growing by an average of 15 million annually. Thus, the setback of 62 million due to the pandemic in 2020 also reverses several years of growth in the high-income population. The share of the global population in the high-income tier is expected to have decreased from 7.5% in 2019 to 6.8% in 2020.

The erosion of the middle class is centered in Asia, the rise in poverty in Asia and Africa

The effect of the COVID-19 downturn on the middle class and other income tiers shows distinct regional differences. Asia is expected to have accounted for most of the shrinking of the global middle class in 2020, with the middle-class population falling by 32 million in South Asia and by 19 million in East Asia and the Pacific. Meanwhile, the middle class in advanced economies is estimated to have increased by 16 million, in part due to the drop-off in the high-income tier in those countries.

Chart showing that South Asia is estimated to have experienced the largest decrease in the middle class and the greatest increase in poverty due to the COVID-19 downturn in 2020

The projected rise in global poverty in the pandemic is concentrated in South Asia (an increase of 78 million) and Sub-Saharan Africa (40 million), historically among the poorest regions in the world. The high-income population in advanced economies is estimated to have shrunk by 47 million in 2020, accounting for most of the falloff globally. It should be noted that the global cutoff for the high-income tier – more than $50 a day – is not much higher than the median income across advanced economies, as an estimated 40% of the population in these countries is in the global high-income tier. Thus, the contraction of the high-income tier in advanced economies is more a reflection of the reduction in the standard of living of the typical person in these countries than outcomes for the wealthy.

The contribution of a region to global changes overall and the shift in its own income distribution depends mostly on two factors: the sizes of income tiers in the region prior to the COVID-19 recession and the impact of the downturn on economic growth in the region.

Prior to the pandemic, nearly half of the global middle-class population – 672 million of 1.38 billion – was estimated to live in East Asia and the Pacific, a region that includes China. Latin America and the Caribbean accounted for 191 million, and Europe and Central Asia was home to 183 million. South Asia accounted for 123 million more.

In view of these magnitudes, the estimated loss (relative to pre-pandemic expectations) of 32 million people from the middle class in South Asia is notable for two reasons. First, the region contributed the most to the shrinking of the global middle class in 2020 despite having a middle-income population smaller than several other regions. Second, the percentage decrease in South Asia’s middle-income population from what was previously expected (26%) is much greater than in any other region. Although East Asia and the Pacific shed 19 million from the middle-income tier, that represented only 3% of its middle class.

Chart showing that prior to the pandemic, most of the global middle class lived in East Asia and the Pacific, the poor in Sub-Saharan Africa, high-income earners in advanced economies

Poverty is most prevalent in Sub-Saharan Africa. Some 494 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa, out of a total population of 1.14 billion, were expected to be living in poverty ahead of the pandemic in 2020. South Asia, with a total population of 1.86 billion, was expected to be home to 104 million poor. Nonetheless, South Asia is estimated to have added nearly double the amount of people to the ranks of the globally poor as Sub-Saharan Africa in the pandemic. The percentage increase in poverty in South Asia (75%) dwarfs the increase in Sub-Saharan Africa (8%).

The number of poor in other regions was smaller, estimated to range from 6 million in Europe and Central Asia to 27 million in Latin America and the Caribbean ahead of the pandemic in 2020. But, since that moment, the increase in poverty in these regions is notable. The Middle East and North Africa and East Asia and the Pacific are each estimated to have seen increases in poverty of more than 20% due to the recession. The rise in poverty in both Europe and Central Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean is not far behind, with each experiencing a 17% increase in poverty.

A large majority of the global high-income population – 489 million of 593 million – lived in advanced economies before the global recession took hold. The estimated decrease of 47 million, or 10%, in this population in advanced economies accounts for most of the shrinking of the global high-income tier.

In proportional terms, the drop off in the high-income tier is also notable in Latin America and the Caribbean (15%), Europe and Central Asia (12%) and East Asia and the Pacific (12%). The losses in the Middle East and North Africa, South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa are relatively small in magnitude (each less than 1 million people) but also represent double-digit shares of the high-income populations in those regions.

Table showing South Asia estimated to have seen the sharpest drop in output growth in 2020, East Asia and the Pacific the least

The relatively outsized role of South Asia in the contraction of the global middle class and the expansion of poverty is the result of it seeing the sharpest reduction in economic growth in the pandemic. In January 2020, the World Bank forecasted that South Asia would experience a 4.3% increase in gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in 2020. But, in January 2021, output in South Asia was estimated to have decreased by 7.8% in 2020, a retreat of 12.1 percentage points from potential.

The setback to economic growth in other regions is smaller, ranging from 4.7 percentage points in East Asia and the Pacific to 8.6 points in Latin America and the Caribbean. East Asia and the Pacific is the only region in which growth is estimated to have stayed positive in 2020, with GDP per capita inching up by 0.4% even after the onset of the pandemic. Otherwise, the latest estimates of the change in output per capita in 2020 ranged from -3.2% in Europe and Central Asia to -7.8% in Latin America and the Caribbean.

(PEW)

MARCH 18, 2021

Source: https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2021/03/18/the-pandemic-stalls-growth-in-the-global-middle-class-pushes-poverty-up-sharply/