Gilani’s Gallopedia© Gallopedia From Gilani Research Foundation August 2021, Issue # 705* Compiled on a weekly basis since January 2007
Gilani’s Gallopedia is a weekly Digest of Opinions in a globalized world
This issue scores 70 out of 100 on Gilani-Gallopedia's Globality Index, showing coverage of world population, and 83 out of 100 on the world income (prosperity) Index. Click for Details
Contact Details: Natasha Amir Research Executive, Gallup Pakistan Email: natasha@galluppakistan.com This WEEKLY REPORT consists of 23 national & multi country surveys 7 polling organizations have been represented. Asia: Pakistan (Inflation ) – 01 national polls Africa: Nigeria (Elections), South Africa (National Trust), Uganda (Consumer Confidence , Consumer Confidence) – 04 national polls Euro Americas: UK(Health , Ethnicity , Afghanistan War , Environment), Germany(Elections ), USA (Ethnicity, Investments, New Media, Lifestyle, Afghanistan War), Canada (Environment , Performance Ratings , Financial systems) Australia (Lifestyle), New Zealand ( Performance Ratings) – 15 national polls	Multi-Country Studies: Ipsos Denmark – 25 Countries (Economic Globalization) YouGov Germany – 06 Countries (Perceptions on Performance) YouGov Germany – 17 Countries (Inflation) Topic of the Week: 62% Of Americans Say The War In Afghanistan Was Not Worth Fighting Gilani-Gallopedia Globality Index
ASIA AND MENA Regions
705-01 2 In 3 Pakistanis (61%) Reported Their Household Savings Had Reduced In The Last 6 Months (Dun&Bradstreet And Gallup Pakistan Consumer Confidence Index) (Click for Details) (Pakistan) A nationally representative sample of adult men and women from across the four provinces was asked the following question, “Do you think, in comparison to last 6 months, your household savings increased, decreased or remained the same?” In response to this question, 8% said increased, 29% said no change, 42% said decreased while 19% said decreased a lot. (Gallup Pakistan) 26th August, 2021 3.4 Economy » Inflation (Top)
AFRICA Regions
AFRICA
705-02 About 7 in 10 Adult Nigerians Support Electronic Transmission of Election Results; New Poll Reveals (Click for Details) (Nigeria) A new public opinion poll conducted by NOIPolls has revealed that 69 percent of adult Nigerians nationwide support the electronic transmission of election results during elections. This assertion cuts across gender, geo-political zones, and age-group with at least 62 percent representation from each category. The reason given by Nigerians are as follows; it will bring about some sort of transparency during elections (26 percent), it is more reliable (24 percent), it will reflect the true result of elections (17 percent), and reduce rigging during elections (12 percent) amongst other reasons. (NOI Polls) August 24, 2021 1.1 Domestic Politics » Elections (Top)
705-03 Fewer Than Two In Five South Africans Trust The President Somewhat Or A Lot (Click for Details) (South Africa) Fewer than two in five South Africans trust the president “somewhat” or “a lot,” and more than two-thirds have “just a little” or “no trust at all” in Parliament, the police, and their local council, according to a new Afrobarometer survey. Public trust in elected representatives is particularly low, and only a quarter of South Africans express trust in either the ruling or opposition parties. Trust in nearly all institutions is low – and declining. Only media broadcasters, both independent (63%) and government (61%), and the Department of Health (56%) enjoy the trust of most citizens. (Afrobarometer) 24 August 2021 1.5 Domestic Politics » National Trust (Top)
705-04 14% Of Ugandans Say The Government Is Performing “Fairly Well” Or “Very Well” In Combating Corruption (Click for Details) (Uganda) Seven in 10 Ugandans say their government is performing “fairly badly” or “very badly” in combating corruption. More than three-quarters of Ugandans believe that citizens who report corruption to the authorities risk retaliation or other negative consequences. Government’s office and a statehouse anti-corruption unit, have not persuaded the public that the level of corruption in the country is decreasing. A corruption-free Uganda is one of five targets that President Yoweri Museveni has tasked his new cabinet with focusing on over the next five years. (Afrobarometer) 26 August 2021 3.2 Economy » Consumer Confidence (Top)
705-05 A Majority Of Ugandans 62% Say The Level Of Corruption In The Country Increased Last Year (Click for Details) (Uganda) Six in 10 Ugandans (62%) say corruption in the country increased “somewhat” or “a lot” during the year preceding the survey. This reflects a 7-percentage-point decrease compared to 2017. Similarly, the proportion of Ugandans who mention corruption as the most important problem government should address has dropped from 20% in 2017 to 13%. Compared to other East African countries, the proportions of Ugandans who see corruption as increasing is similar to perceptions in Kenya but far less promising than in Tanzania, where this proportion dropped from 67% in 2014 to 8% in 2021 (Afrobarometer) 26 August 2021 3.2 Economy » Consumer Confidence (Top)
EURO-AMERICA Regions
EUROPE
705-06 48% NHS Workers Say Coronavirus Restrictions Ended Too Soon (Click for Details) (UK) Half of all NHS staff believe the government jumped the gun with ‘Freedom Day’: 48% say coronavirus restrictions ended too soon. Around one in three say the timing was about right, while only 8% say it happened too late. Support is highest making it a legal requirement for people to wear masks on public transport and in shops again, with respectively 88% and 84% in favour. While companies can still demand that customers wear masks to use their services, this stopped being legally required on 19 July. (YouGov UK) August 24, 2021 4.11 Society » Health (Top)
705-07 A Third Of Ethnic Minority Football Fans Have Experienced Racism At Stadiums (Click for Details) (UK) Our research finds that a third (33%) of ethnic minority football fans who have watched a match at a stadium have personally experienced racist abuse while there, including 8% saying this has happened to them “many” times. This figure rises to 43% when we look at those who go to football stadiums at least once a year. A parallel poll of all football fans in Britain mirrors, these findings with 29% of those who have been to a football ground saying they have witnessed racist abuse at least once. (YouGov UK) August 26, 2021 4.3 Society » Ethnicity (Top)
705-08 A Third Of Adults Say Afghanistan Exodus Is Among The Top Three Issues Facing The UK (Click for Details) (UK) Some 36% of people rank currently immigration and asylum as one of the three most pressing issues affecting the country, up seven points since 16 August, and tying for importance with the economy. The only issue more commonly ranked as more important by the general public is health (45%). (YouGov UK) August 25, 2021 2.2 Foreign Affairs & Security » Afghanistan War (Top)
705-09 Thirty-Two Percent People Mention Climate Change And Pollution As A Major Issue For Britain (Click for Details) (UK) The August 2021 Ipsos MORI issues Index reveals spontaneous public concern about the environment has jumped sixteen percentage points since July. Thirty-two per cent mention climate change and pollution as a major issue for Britain, making it the second-biggest concern for the country. Fieldwork was conducted between 6 and 13 August, covering the launch of the Sixth Assessment Report of the International Panel on Climate Change. (Ipsos MORI) 27 August 2021 4.14 Society » Environment (Top)
705-10 22 Percent Of The German Citizens Entitled To Vote State That They Will Vote For The CDU / CSU (Click for Details) (Germany) 22 percent of the German citizens entitled to vote state that they will vote for the CDU / CSU if there would be a general election next Sunday. This value is 6 percentage points lower compared to the previous month. The SPD, on the other hand, can gain 8 percentage points and lands at 24 percent. With this, the SPD has overtaken the Union in terms of the Germans' intention to vote. Alliance 90 / The Greens remain unchanged compared to the previous month at 16 percent. (YouGov Germany) August 27, 2021 1.1 Domestic Politics » Elections (Top)
NORTH AMERICA
705-11 About Six-In-Ten Adults (61%) Say The Declining Proportion Of Americans Who Identify As White Is Neither Good Nor Bad For Society (Click for Details) (USA) About six-in-ten adults (61%) say the declining proportion of Americans who identify as White – a trend documented this month in new data from the Census Bureau about Americans who identify as solely White and not Hispanic – is neither good nor bad for society. About two-in-ten (22%) say it is bad, including 9% who say it is very bad. Slightly fewer (15%) say it is good for society, including 7% who say it is very good, according to the survey of 10,221 adults, conducted July 8-18, 2021. (PEW) AUGUST 23, 2021 4.3 Society » Ethnicity (Top)
705-12 A Quarter Of Investors Say They Have Heard A Lot (6%) Or A Fair Amount (19%) About Social Impact Investing (Click for Details) (USA) A recent Gallup survey of U.S. adults with $10,000 or more in investments finds no change over the past year in these investors' awareness of sustainable investing -- also known as "responsible investing," "social impact investing," or "environmental, social and governance" investing. A quarter of investors say they have heard a lot (6%) or a fair amount (19%) about this type of investing. Another third have heard a little about it, while four in 10 have heard nothing. (Gallup) AUGUST 23, 2021 3.8 Economy » Investments (Top)
705-13 About Four-In-Ten Americans Say Social Media Is An Important Way Of Following Covid-19 Vaccine News (Click for Details) (USA) Among the 53% of Americans who say they regularly get news from at least one of the 10 social media sites asked about, close to three-quarters say they have gotten a lot (30%) or some (43%) news and information about COVID-19 vaccines on social media. And about six-in-ten of this group (61%) say that social media is an important way of keeping up with news about COVID-19 vaccines, though just 11% say it is the most important way. (PEW) AUGUST 24, 2021 4.6 Society » New Media (Top)
705-14 Six-In-Ten U S Adults Say They Would Prefer To Live In A Community With Larger Homes With Greater Distances To Retail Stores And Schools (Click for Details) (USA) This shift has occurred during the coronavirus outbreak and the accompanying period of telework, remote schooling and pandemic-related restrictions on indoor dining and other indoor activities. Today, six-in-ten U.S. adults say they would prefer to live in a community with larger homes with greater distances to retail stores and schools (up 7 percentage points since 2019), while 39% say they prefer a community with smaller houses that are closer together with schools, stores and restaurants within walking distance (down 8 points since 2019). (PEW) AUGUST 26, 2021 4.7 Society » Lifestyle (Top)
705-15 62% Of Americans Say The War In Afghanistan Was Not Worth Fighting (Click for Details) (USA) Gallup's July 6-21 update of a trend question asking if the U.S. made a mistake sending military troops to Afghanistan found 47% saying yes and 46% saying no. This "mistake" percentage is as high as at any time since just after troops were first sent to Afghanistan in November 2001, with the exception of one 49% reading in February 2014. (Gallup) AUGUST 27, 2021 2.2 Foreign Affairs & Security » Afghanistan War (Top)
705-16 Half (51%) Insist We Must Balance Economic Considerations With Environmental Concerns (Click for Details) (Canada) With 2021 seeing record-setting heat waves afflicting Canadians from coast to coast and one of the worst wildfire seasons in recent memory, Canadians indicate climate change is one of their Top 5 issues in the 44th Federal Election. While agreement is strong that something needs to be done about climate change (77% agree Canada needs to do more than it is, -1 pt from 2019), the question of what should be done remains unclear, especially since half (51% -5 pts from 2019) believe we need to balance economic considerations with environmental efforts. (Ipsos Canada) 26 August 2021 4.14 Society » Environment (Top)
705-17 Singh Emerges As Most Likeable Leader(With Net Rating Of +6); Negative Perceptions Highest For Trudeau (Click for Details) (Canada) Currently, 93% of Liberal voters have a favourable view of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and 92% of NDP voters are favourable towards Jagmeet Singh. Nine in ten Bloc voters (89%) are also favourable towards Yves-François Blanchet. However, it is a completely different story for Erin O’Toole: only 69% of current Conservative voters are favourable towards O’Toole, while two in ten (18%) are unfavourable towards the leader. One in ten (13%) say they still don’t know enough about him to say either way. (Ipsos Canada) 27 August 2021 1.2 Domestic Politics » Performance Ratings (Top)
705-18 A Third (33%) Of Canadians Believe The Next Federal Government Should Focus On Balancing The Budget (Click for Details) (Canada) A third (33%, +2) of Canadians believe the next federal government should focus on balancing the budget, even if it means spending cuts or tax increases. This opinion is more pronounced among men (37% vs 29% for women). Regionally, there does not appear to be any significant differences, however, Alberta and Quebec are directionally more likely to believe the next federal government should focus on balancing the budget (35% Alberta, 35% Quebec, 33% Ontario, 31% SK/MB 29% BC, 29% Atlantic). As well, those with a household income of $60-$100k are more likely to believe balancing the budget should be the focus compared to the other household income levels (39% $60-$100k vs 36% $100k+, 31% <$40k, 27% $40k-$60k). (Ipsos Canada) 28 August 2021 3.9 Economy » Financial systems (Top)
AUSTRALIA
705-19 More than 20 million Australians continue to read news (Click for Details) (Australia) The readership figures, produced for the first time by Roy Morgan for ThinkNewsBrands, refer to the 12 months to June 2021 and show that Total News reaches 97 per cent of the population aged 14+. Total News consists of all news brands (print and digital) and digital news websites. Digital news maintains its position of strength with readership of 19.1 million, 90 per cent of the population aged 14+. (Roy Morgan) August 23 2021 4.7 Society » Lifestyle (Top)
705-20 Support For New Zealand’s Labour/Greens Government Increased 2% Points To 51.5% In August (Click for Details) (New Zealand) The governing parties are now 11% points ahead of the Parliamentary opposition National/Act NZ/ Maori Party on 40.5%, down 4% points since July. The drop was due to a loss in support for National which was down 4% points to 25%, the lowest since March. Support for Act NZ was unchanged at a record high of 13% while support for the Maori Party was unchanged at 2.5%. A small minority of 8% of electors support other minor parties outside Parliament with support for The Opportunities Party down 1% point to 2% and support for NZ First up 0.5% points to 2.5% in August. (Roy Morgan) August 27 2021 1.2 Domestic Politics » Performance Ratings (Top)
MULTI COUNTRY
705-21 Only 48% Agree That Globalization Is A Good Thing For Their Country (Click for Details) The survey findings uncover a mix of polarization and ambivalence among the public throughout the world about free trade, globalization, and protectionist policies. On average, only 48% agree that globalization is a good thing for their country. This is 10 percentage points less than in 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic. While favorability toward globalization is down in all countries, it continues to vary widely among them, ranging from 72% in Malaysia to 27% in France. (Ipsos Denmark) 23 August 2021 3.6 Economy » Economic Globalization (Top)
705-22 Angela Merkel’s Legacy, According To Europeans And Americans (Click for Details) Merkel receives positive net ratings in all six countries surveyed, from a ‘low’ of +15 in Britain to a high of +61 in Spain. In her native Germany she scores +30. The French public score Merkel +49, and in Italy she receives a rating of +23. In Nordic nations Sweden and Denmark the chancellor receives net scores of +47 and +64, respectively. People are most impressed with Merkel’s stewardship of the German economy, which has grown 17% since 2005. Her performance in this area, among people in each country who know who she is, ranges from +21 in the United States to +76 in Spain. (YouGov Germany) August 26, 2021 3.1 Economy » Perceptions on Performance (Top)
705-23 25 Percent Of Respondents Have Found It Harder To Pay Their Rent (Click for Details) Global YouGov data shows that 25 percent of respondents in the 17 markets youGov studied have found it harder to pay their rent. Only 7 percent of all respondents say that it has become easier for them. Indians (44 percent), Indonesians, and people in the United Arab Emirates (42 percent each) were most likely to report having more difficulty paying their rent or mortgage. However, respondents from these three countries also say more often than most of the other respondents that it has become easier for them (UAE 19 percent, India 15 percent; Indonesia 14 percent). (YouGov Germany) August 27, 2021 3.4 Economy » Inflation (Top)
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: 62% Of Americans Say The War In Afghanistan Was Not Worth Fighting uThis page is devoted to opinions of countries whose polling activity is generally not known very widely or where a recent topical issue requires special attention.
62% Of Americans Say The War In Afghanistan Was Not Worth Fighting Public opinion relating to the U.S. and Afghanistan can be divided into four categories: (1) Americans' basic assessments of the 20-year U.S. military involvement in Afghanistan, (2) Americans' views of the decision to completely withdraw U.S. troops at this point, (3) Americans' views of the way in which the withdrawal was handled and (4) the longer-term political impact. U.S. Involvement Retrospective approval of U.S. involvement in Afghanistan is at or below the majority level and appears to be getting more negative as time goes on. Americans at this point have significant doubts about the country's 20-year military involvement in Afghanistan -- the longest war in U.S. history, estimated to have cost over $2 trillion and almost 200,000 total deaths. Gallup's July 6-21 update of a trend question asking if the U.S. made a mistake sending military troops to Afghanistan found 47% saying yes and 46% saying no. This "mistake" percentage is as high as at any time since just after troops were first sent to Afghanistan in November 2001, with the exception of one 49% reading in February 2014. The most recent Gallup poll was completed prior to much of the news coverage of the speed with which the Taliban regained control of Afghanistan. More recent polling (but conducted before the massive Aug. 26 explosion that killed U.S. service members and many civilians) generally shows a majority negative assessment of U.S. involvement in Afghanistan. These include an NBC News poll conducted Aug. 14-17 showing that 61% of Americans say the Afghanistan War was not worth it -- "When it comes to Afghanistan, do you think the war was worth it or not worth it?" -- and an AP-NORC poll from Aug. 12-16 finding that 62% of Americans say the war in Afghanistan was not worth fighting. The Decision to Withdraw U.S. Troops President Joe Biden announced his decision on April 14 to withdraw all U.S. troops from Afghanistan. As we would expect given the underlying negative views of U.S. involvement in Afghanistan, surveys thereafter showed significant public support for Biden's decision. An Ipsos survey conducted April 16-18 found 50% supported the idea of the U.S. bringing home "all of its troops from Afghanistan immediately," while 27% opposed. The 2021 Chicago Council Survey, conducted July 7-26, found 70% support for the decision to withdraw U.S. troops from Afghanistan by Sept. 11. A Quinnipiac poll in May found 62% support. A Fox News poll conducted after the April announcement gave respondents two options -- removing all troops or leaving some U.S. troops in Afghanistan for counterterrorism operations -- and found 50% opted for the latter choice, while 37% said that all troops should be removed. More recently, even as reports of the Taliban takeover began to dominate the news, Americans appeared to be sticking to their support for the U.S. getting out of Afghanistan. A CBS News poll from Aug. 18-20 found 63% approval of the U.S. removing troops from Afghanistan. A Morning Consult/Politico poll found somewhat more muted support in its Aug. 16-19 poll among registered voters, with 53% supporting and 36% opposing the decision. The wording of that poll -- "As you may know, United States President Joe Biden announced the start of a withdrawal of U.S. military presence in Afghanistan beginning May 1, with all troops returning home by Sept. 11, 2021. Based on what you know, do you support or oppose President Biden's decision?" -- explicitly mentioned Biden, which may help explain the lower level of support compared with the CBS News survey, which did not mention the president. Several commentators have noted a particularly loaded wording in another question included in Morning Consult/Politico polling: "Do you believe the U.S. should still withdraw its military presence in Afghanistan if it means it creates an opening for al Qaeda and other terrorist groups to establish operations in Afghanistan?" Even with this "directed verdict question," 45% of Americans agreed that troops should be withdrawn, compared with 40% who said they should not. This is taken, I think correctly, as an indicator of the degree to which the public is behind the withdrawal. The Fox News poll from April, however, suggests there may have been at least some public support for a more limited withdrawal had Biden articulated that as an option. Assessment of the Way the Withdrawal Has Been Handled Given that the majority of Americans believe the time has come for the U.S. to get out of its military involvement in Afghanistan, I think it is fair to conclude that Biden has -- in concept -- been carrying out the broad will of the American public. Support for the idea of U.S. disinvolvement in Afghanistan is, however, separate from views on how well such withdrawal has been conducted. Recent surveys show the majority of Americans believe the whole process has been handled poorly, and Biden himself receives low marks for his handling of the situation. In short, perceptions of the competence and execution of the actions in Afghanistan are much more negative than perceptions of the objective or intent of the actions. Several recent polls support this conclusion. The NBC News poll shows 25% of Americans approve of the way Biden is handling the Afghanistan situation. The CBS News poll finds 74% say the removal of the troops has been handled badly by the U.S. and 67% say that Biden did not have a clear plan for evacuating American civilians. An Aug. 13-16 Morning Consult/Politico poll shows that 31% of registered voters approve of Biden's handling of Afghanistan, while 57% say (at the time of the poll) that the withdrawal is not going well. And the USA Today/Suffolk poll shows a 27% approval rating for Biden's handling of Afghanistan. Long-Term Impact The only really accurate way to assess the long-term impact of any specific event is to wait for the long term and see what happens. But this evident fact of life doesn't prevent us from looking at data-driven possibilities. One of the most frequent focal points for consideration of the long-term impact of what we are witnessing in Afghanistan concerns Biden and the Democrats. The president's overall approval rating appears to be edging down, measured by Gallup's Aug. 2-17 poll at 49% -- by one percentage point, the lowest of his administration. And, as my colleague Jeff Jones noted, "Interviews conducted in the last three days of the poll's field period, after Kabul fell, showed slightly less positive ratings for Biden than those conducted earlier." Other polls show similar declines, and one -- conducted Aug. 19-23 by Suffolk University for USA Today -- shows Biden's approval rating dropping all the way to 41%, which is either an outlier or a portent of further drops to come (no other poll has measured Biden's approval nearly that low). But, as is usually the case, it is difficult to disentangle the exact causes for presidential approval movement. Recent data show there is much more on Americans' minds than Afghanistan, suggesting caution in ascribing changes in Biden's approval rating to any one factor. Gallup's Aug. 2-17 update, for example, shows that less than 1% of Americans mention the situation in Afghanistan as the most important problem facing the U.S. today, while COVID-19 has increased significantly as the perceived top problem, followed by mentions of the government, immigration and the economy. The NBC News poll similarly shows no significant mention of Afghanistan when respondents are asked to name the most important issue facing the country. The images coming out of Kabul and elsewhere in Afghanistan bring back memories of the dramatic fall of Saigon at the end of April 1975, as the North Vietnamese surged south and took control of the city. Gerald Ford was president at that time, although the last combat troops had left Vietnam in the spring of 1973, with Richard Nixon in the White House. A review of Gallup polling in 1975 finds little evidence that the takeover of the country and the dramatic evacuations from South Vietnam had a direct effect on Ford's approval rating. A Gallup retrospective published when Ford died in 2006 showed his previously anemic ratings appeared to have improved significantly in the weeks after the fall of Saigon, but this most likely reflected the United States' handling of the capture of the SS Mayaguez by Cambodian Khmer Rouge rebels. Americans' views of the most important problem facing the nation after April 1975 -- as is the case now -- show very little mention of any international issues. Most Americans' concerns in 1975 were focused on domestic issues, including rampant inflation and a poor economy. In short, the dramatic events taking place overseas in Vietnam in 1975, even if they should have been anticipated by American leaders, didn't seem to have had much of a direct impact on Americans' views of either the president or the most important problem facing the nation. (Gallup polling showed that by the late 1960s, a majority of Americans thought U.S. involvement in Vietnam had been a mistake.) Bottom Line Americans believe Biden did the right thing in withdrawing U.S. troops from Afghanistan. Americans are as likely to view the whole 20-year experience in that country as a mistake as to say it was not, while recent polling shows the majority say involvement there was not worth it. But the extremely rapid movement of the Taliban to wrest back control of the country has left Americans with the perception that the withdrawal has not been handled well. Biden is given low marks for his handling of the situation, although -- despite commentary to the contrary -- it is too early to know what the long-term impact will be for Biden or for Democratic performance in next year's midterm elections. It is always possible that the events taking place now could result in a counterintuitive rally effect of sorts. At this point in history, Americans' concerns about Afghanistan are competing for attention with other issues, particularly COVID. It is possible that new events in Afghanistan in the weeks and months ahead could shift Americans' attention and result in different views of the situation along with changes in attitudes about the wisdom of the U.S. decision to withdraw all troops. (Gallup) AUGUST 27, 2021 Source: https://news.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/354182/american-public-opinion-afghanistan-situation.aspx (Top)
GILANI-GALLOPEDIA GLOBALITY INDEX: u The purpose of this index is to treat the Global Coverage by each issue of Gallopedia in terms of Population, National Income and estimated Power measured by G20 Membership.
GILANI-GALLOPEDIA GLOBALITY INDEX (Top)
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